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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Regulation of landslide motion by dilatancy and pore pressure feedback

A new mathematical model clarifies how diverse styles and rates of landslide motion can result from regulation of Coulomb friction by dilation or contraction of water‐saturated basal shear zones. Normalization of the model equations shows that feedback due to coupling between landslide motion, shear zone volume change, and pore pressure change depends on a single dimensionless parameter α, which, in turn, depends on the dilatancy angle ψ and the intrinsic timescales for pore pressure generation and dissipation. If shear zone soil contracts during slope failure, then α < 0, and positive pore pressure feedback and runaway acceleration are inevitable. If the shear zone dilates, then α > 0, and negative feedback permits slow, steady landslide motion to occur while positive pore pressure is supplied by rain infiltration. Steady state slip velocities v 0 obey v 0 = −( K /ψ) p * e , where K is the hydraulic conductivity and p * e is the normalized (dimensionless) negative pore pressure generated by dilation. If rain infiltration and attendant pore pressure growth continue unabated, however, their influence ultimately overwhelms the stabilizing influence of negative p * e . Then, unbounded landslide acceleration occurs, accentuated by an instability that develops if ψ diminishes as landslide motion proceeds. Nonetheless, numerical solutions of the model equations show that slow, nearly steady motion of a clay‐rich landslide may persist for many months as a result of negative pore pressure feedback that regulates basal Coulomb friction. Similarly stabilized motion is less likely to occur in sand‐rich landslides that are characterized by weaker negative feedback.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2011

Seismic and geodetic signatures of fault slip at the Slumgullion Landslide Natural Laboratory

We tested the hypothesis that the Slumgullion landslide is a useful natural laboratory for observing fault slip, specifically that slip along its basal surface and side-bounding strike-slip faults occurs with comparable richness of aseismic and seismic modes as along crustal- and plate-scale boundaries. Our study provides new constraints on models governing landslide motion. We monitored landslide deformation with temporary deployments of a 29-element prism array surveyed by a robotic theodolite and an 88-station seismic network that complemented permanent extensometers and environmental instrumentation. Aseismic deformation observations show that large blocks of the landslide move steadily at approximately centimeters per day, possibly punctuated by variations of a few millimeters, while localized transient slip episodes of blocks less than a few tens of meters across occur frequently. We recorded a rich variety of seismic signals, nearly all of which originated outside the monitoring network boundaries or from the side-bounding strike-slip faults. The landslide basal surface beneath our seismic network likely slipped almost completely aseismically. Our results provide independent corroboration of previous inferences that dilatant strengthening along sections of the side-bounding strike-slip faults controls the overall landslide motion, acting as seismically radiating brakes that limit acceleration of the aseismically slipping basal surface. Dilatant strengthening has also been invoked in recent models of transient slip and tremor sources along crustal- and plate-scale faults suggesting that the landslide may indeed be a useful natural laboratory for testing predictions of specific mechanisms that control fault slip at all scales.

Colorado↗
USGS2023

Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data

Landslide susceptibility maps indicate the spatial distribution of landslide likelihood. Modeling susceptibility over large or diverse terrains remains a challenge due to the sparsity of landslide data (mapped extent of known landslides) and the variability in triggering conditions. Several different data sampling strategies of landslide locations used to train a susceptibility model are used to mitigate this challenge. However, to our knowledge, no study has systematically evaluated how different sampling strategies alter a model's predictor effects (i.e., how a predictor value influences the susceptibility output) critical to explaining differences in model outputs. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that examines the variation in predictor effects and the model accuracy (measured using receiver operator characteristics) to highlight why certain sampling strategies are more effective than others. Specifically, we apply our framework to an array of logistic regression models trained on landslide inventories collected at sub-regional scales over four terrains across the United States. Results show significant variations in predictor effects depending on the inventory used to train the models. The inconsistent predictor effects cause low accuracies when testing models on inventories outside the domain of the training data. Grouping test and training sets according to physiographic and ecological characteristics, which are thought to share similar triggering mechanisms, does not improve model accuracy. We also show that using limited landslide data distributed uniformly over the entire modeling domain is better than using dense but spatially isolated data to train a model for applications over large regions.

California, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virgini↗
USGS2012

Landslides in Valles Marineris, Mars

Large landslides in the Martian equatorial troughs have been investigated with respect to morphology, geologic structure of the troughs, time of emplacement, similarity to terrestrial landslides, and origin and mechanism of transport. Viking Orbiter images provided a base for morphologic analyses, mapping, crater counts, and volumetric considerations. Results showed that the morphologic variations of the landslides can be attributed mainly to their degree of confinement on trough floors. Many prominent landslides appear to be of similar age and were emplaced after a major episode of faulting that created scarps of great relief. Most sliding apparently occurred after these scarps were dissected into spurs, gullies, and tributary canyons. Much of the slide activity coincided with a major late eruptive phase of the Tharsis volcanoes, as deduced from the crater density, over the total deposit area, of 570±130 craters larger than 1 km in diameter per 10 6 km 2 . The huge size of many landslides is due to their occurrence on fault scarps that may have attained several kilometers in height in the absence of vigorous fluvial erosion on Mars. The mechanical efficiency of the Martian landslides is high but in accord with predictions from large landslides on earth. The slides may have originated as gigantic mudflows with slump blocks at their heads; water that may have existed in aquifers in the wallrock below and behind a lid of ice may have been liberated through minor disturbances from Marsquakes. Liquefaction and collapse of extensive wall sections may then have ensued, and the debris rushed out onto the trough floors at speeds exceeding 100 km/h.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Inversions of landslide strength as a proxy for subsurface weathering

Distributions of landslide size are hypothesized to reflect hillslope strength, and consequently weathering patterns. However, the association of weathering and critical zone architecture with mechanical strength properties of parent rock and soil are poorly-constrained. Here we use three-dimensional stability to analyze 7330 landslides in western Oregon to infer combinations of strength - friction angles and cohesion - through analysis of both failed and reconstructed landslide terrain. Under a range of conditions, our results demonstrate that the failure envelope that relates shear strength and normal stress in landslide terrain is nonlinear owing to an exchange in strength with landslide thickness. Despite the variability in material strength at large scales, the observed gradient in proportional cohesive strength with landslide thickness may serve as a proxy for subsurface weathering. We posit that the observed relationships between strength and landslide thickness are associated with the coalescence of zones of low shear strength driven by fractures and weathering, which constitutes a first-order control on the mechanical behavior of underlying soil and rock mass.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Channel widening is a major hazard during floods, particularly in confined mountainous catchments. However, channel widening during floods is not well understood and not always explained by hydraulic variables alone. Floods in mountainous regions often coincide with landslides triggered by heavy rainfall, yet landslide-channel interactions during a flood event are not well known or documented. Here we demonstrate with an example from the Great Colorado Flood in 2013, a 1000 year precipitation event, how landslide-channel feedbacks can substantially amplify channel widening and flood risk. We use a combination of DEM differencing, field analysis, and multiphase flow modeling to document landslide-channel interaction during the flood event in which sediment delivered by landslides temporarily dammed the channel before failing and generating substantial channel widening. We propose that such landslide-flood interactions will become increasingly important to account for in flood hazard assessment as flooding and landsliding both increase with extreme rainfall under climate change.

Colorado↗
USGS2009

Toward a comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides

This paper provides a review of regional-scale modeling of earthquake-induced landslide hazard with respect to the needs for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Based on this review, it sets out important research themes and suggests computing with words (CW), a methodology that includes fuzzy logic systems, as a fruitful modeling methodology for addressing many of these research themes. A range of research, reviewed here, has been conducted applying CW to various aspects of earthquake-induced landslide hazard zonation, but none facilitate comprehensive modeling of all types of earthquake-induced landslides. A new comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides (CAMEL) is introduced here that was developed using fuzzy logic systems. CAMEL provides an integrated framework for modeling all types of earthquake-induced landslides using geographic information systems. CAMEL is designed to facilitate quantitative and qualitative representation of terrain conditions and knowledge about these conditions on the likely areal concentration of each landslide type. CAMEL is highly modifiable and adaptable; new knowledge can be easily added, while existing knowledge can be changed to better match local knowledge and conditions. As such, CAMEL should not be viewed as a complete alternative to other earthquake-induced landslide models. CAMEL provides an open framework for incorporating other models, such as Newmark's displacement method, together with previously incompatible empirical and local knowledge. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Natural Hazards Review↗
USGS2026

Deep critical zone controls on shallow landslides

The deep critical zone (CZ) has long been recognized for its importance in influencing shallow landslides but was not considered feasible to include in slope stability models at the watershed scale. In this study, we demonstrate that simple approximations of the CZ in a fully coupled hydrologic and soil slope stability model can effectively capture the location, timing, and likely size of shallow landslides. To achieve this, we use coupled, process-based models that incorporate the effects of 1) deep CZ structures, 2) three-dimensional transient hydrology, and 3) multidimensional slope stability, calibrated with data from an intensively monitored field site. Our results show that the hydrologically active deep CZ guides groundwater flow, influencing where it drains from or exfiltrates to the soil mantle, producing distinct patterns of soil saturation and seepage forces at the soil-bedrock boundary. Deep conductive weathered critical zone drains the soil mantle, reducing the likelihood of destabilizing pore pressures, while the downslope thinning of the CZ forces groundwater to the surface. This creates localized instability and a tendency for similar-sized landslides across the landscape. In contrast, the absence of conductive weathered bedrock results in more widespread destabilizing pore pressures, leading to larger landslides and the likelihood of landslides earlier in a storm than in landscapes underlain by a deep CZ. Our findings suggest that first-order variations of deep CZ can provide physical explanations for variations observed in the susceptibility, magnitude, and timing of shallow landslides, and that CZ structure may be inferred from patterns and timing of landsliding.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2000

Forest clearing and regional landsliding

The influence of forest clearing on landsliding is central to long-standing concern over the effects of timber harvesting on slope stability. Here we document a strong topographic control on shallow landsliding by combining unique ground-based landslide surveys in an intensively monitored study area with digital terrain modeling using high-resolution laser altimetry and a coarser resolution regional study of 3224 landslides. As predicted by our digital terrain–based model, landslides occur disproportionately in steep, convergent topography. In terrain predicted to be at low risk of slope failure, a random model performs equally well to our mechanism-based model. Our monitoring shows that storms with 24 hr rainfall recurrence intervals of less than 4 yr triggered landslides in the decade after forest clearing and that conventional monitoring programs can substantially underestimate the effects of forest clearing. Our regional analysis further substantiates that forest clearing dramatically accelerates shallow landsliding in steep terrain typical of the Pacific Northwest.

Oregon↗
USGS2015

Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

Washington↗
USGS2013

A scenario study of seismically induced landsliding in Seattle using broadband synthetic seismograms

We demonstrate the value of utilizing broadband synthetic seismograms to assess regional seismically induced landslide hazard. Focusing on a case study of an M w 7.0 Seattle fault earthquake in Seattle, Washington, we computed broadband synthetic seismograms that account for rupture directivity and 3D basin amplification. We then adjusted the computed motions on a fine grid for 1D amplifications based on the site response of typical geologic profiles in Seattle and used these time‐series ground motions to trigger shallow landsliding using the Newmark method. The inclusion of these effects was critical in determining the extent of landsliding triggered. We found that for inertially triggered slope failures modeled by the Newmark method, the ground motions used to simulate landsliding must have broadband frequency content in order to capture the full slope displacement. We applied commonly used simpler methods based on ground‐motion prediction equations for the same scenario and found that they predicted far fewer landslides if only the mean values were used, but far more at the maximum range of the uncertainties, highlighting the danger of using just the mean values for such methods. Our results indicate that landsliding triggered by a large Seattle fault earthquake will be extensive and potentially devastating, causing direct losses and impeding recovery. The high impact of landsliding predicted by this simulation shows that this secondary effect of earthquakes should be studied with as much vigor as other earthquake effects.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Improving near‐real‐time coseismic landslide models: Lessons learned from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing near‐real‐time global earthquake‐triggered‐landslide products to augment the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The 14 November 2016 M w "> M w Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake provided a test case for evaluating the performance and near‐real‐time response applicability of three published global seismically induced landslide models. All three models obtain shaking estimates from the USGS ShakeMap, which is updated and sometimes changes significantly in the hours to days after an earthquake. The Kaikōura earthquake is a particularly valuable event that helps us better understand how changes to the ShakeMap affect the landslide models because the ShakeMap evolved significantly over several weeks as multifault rupture and seismic data were incorporated. We used the detailed landslide inventory available for this event for qualitative landslide model evaluation. We found that once a point source was replaced with an approximate rupture extent in ShakeMap, the landslide models were all successful at roughly identifying the area of highest hazard. This is notable, given that the models are relatively simple, coarse in resolution, and are based solely on input proxies that are globally available. However, all of the models dramatically overpredicted the hazard level, which indicates that improvements can be made. Subsequent updates to the ShakeMap resulted in improvements to model performance by some metrics and declining performance by others. In all cases, details of the ShakeMap strongly controlled the spatial pattern, even when those details were erroneous, such as the inclusion of a fault segment that did not rupture. If maps of landslide hazard are to be used effectively for rapid response, then we need to understand and clearly communicate the control that ShakeMap has over the models and how that typically evolves with time and is (or is not) reflected in reported uncertainties.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

Aerial-Photointerpretation of landslides along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers

A landslide inventory was conducted along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers in the New Madrid Seismic Zone of southern Illinois, between the towns of Olmsted and Chester, Illinois. Aerial photography and field reconnaissance identified 221 landslides of three types: rock/debris falls, block slides, and undifferentiated rotational/translational slides. Most of the landslides are small- to medium-size, ancient rotational/translational features partially ob-scured by vegetation and modified by weathering. Five imagery sources were interpreted for landslides: 1:250,000-scale side-looking airborne radar (SLAR); 1:40,000-scale, 1:20,000-scale, 1:6,000-scale, black and white aerial photography; and low altitude, oblique 35-mm color photography. Landslides were identified with three levels of confidence on the basis of distinguishing characteristics and ambiguous indicators. SLAR imagery permitted identification of a 520 hectare mega-landslide which would not have been identified on medium-scale aerial photography. The leaf-off, 35-mm color, oblique photography provided the best imagery for confident interpretation of detailed features needed for smaller landslides.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri↗
USGS1983

Preparing a Detailed Landslide-Inventory Map for Hazard Evaluation and Reduction

A method of preparing a detailed landslide-inventory map has been developed which provides the engineering geologist with the basic information for evaluating and reducing landslide hazards or risk on a regional or community level. For each landslide, the map depicts state of activity, certainty of identification, dominant type of slope movement, primary direction of movement, estimated thickness of material involved in landsliding, and date(s) of known activity. This information is developed from interpreting aerial photographs and examining landslide features in the field. Although preparing detailed landslide-inventory maps involves considerably more time and effort than landslide reconnaissance mapping, these maps are directly useable by planners and decisionmakers as a basis for requiring site-specific investigations prior to development or adopting land-use regulations. Refs.

Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologi↗
USGS2003

Preliminary assessment of landslide-induced wave hazards: Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

A large potential rock avalanche above the northern shore of Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, was investigated to determine hazards and risks of landslide-induced waves to cruise ships and other park visitors. Field and photographic examination revealed that the 5 to 10 million cubic meter landslide moved between AD 1892 and 1919 after the retreat of Little Ice Age glaciers from Tidal Inlet by AD 1890. The timing of landslide movement and the glacial history suggest that glacial debuttressing caused weakening of the slope and that the landslide could have been triggered by large earthquakes of 1899-1900 in Yakutat Bay. Evidence of recent movement includes fresh scarps, back-rotated blocks, and smaller secondary landslide movements. However, until there is evidence of current movement, the mass is classified as a dormant rock slump. An earthquake on the nearby active Fairweather fault system could reactivate the landslide and trigger a massive rock slump and debris avalanche into Tidal Inlet. Preliminary analyses show that waves induced by such a landslide could travel at speeds of 45 to 50 m/s and reach heights up to 76 m with wave runups of 200 m on the opposite shore of Tidal Inlet. Such waves would not only threaten vessels in Tidal Inlet, but would also travel into the western arm of Glacier Bay endangering large cruise ships and their passengers.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Shallow-landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated Seattle as a 'Project Impact' city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to the effects of landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map of the city. An exceptional data set archived by the city, containing more than 100 years of landslide data from severe storm events, allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides which often mobilize into debris flows, water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock, and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform allowed the preparation of a shallow landslide hazard map for the entire city of Seattle.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Landslides in Colorado, USA--Impacts and loss estimation for 2010

The focus of this study is to investigate landslides and consequent losses which affected Colorado in the year 2010. By obtaining landslide reports from a variety of sources, this report will demonstrate the feasibility of creating a profile of landslides and their effects on communities. A short overview of the current status of landslide-loss studies for the United States is introduced, followed by a compilation of landslide occurrence and associated losses and impacts which affected Colorado for the year 2010. Direct costs are summarized in descriptive and tabular form, and where possible, indirect costs are also noted or estimated. Total direct costs of landslides in Colorado for the year 2010 were approximately $9,149,335.00 (2010 U.S. dollars). (Since not all data for damages and costs were obtained, this figure realistically could be considerably higher.) Indirect costs were noted where available but are not totaled due to the fact that most indirect costs were not obtainable for various reasons outlined later in this report. Casualty data are considered as being within the scope of loss evaluation, and are reported in Appendix 1, but are not assigned dollar losses. More details on the source material for loss data not found in the reference section are reported in Appendix 2, and Appendix 3 summarizes notes on landslide-loss investigations in general and lessons learned during the process of loss-data collection.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Map depicting susceptibility to landslides triggered by intense rainfall, Puerto Rico

Landslides in Puerto Rico range from nuisances to deadly events. Centuries of agricultural and urban modification of the landscape have perturbed many already unstable hillsides on the tropical island. One of the main triggers of mass wasting on the island is the high-intensity rainfall that is associated with tropical atmospheric systems. Puerto Rico’s geographic position and rugged topography render millions of residents vulnerable to widespread landslide events. In this study, a high-resolution (5 meters), high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility model was produced using the frequency-ratio method. Datasets utilized in the model included a complete-island landslide inventory created from imagery obtained after Hurricanes Irma and María impacted the island during September 2017, slope inclination, land-surface curvature, soil type, geologic terrane, mean annual precipitation, land use, soil moisture, and distance to roadways and streams. The final data product (plate 1) is a statistically viable representation of where landslides are likely to initiate during or soon after intense rainfall, with a robust receiver operating characteristic area-under-curve value of 0.87. The model output raster pixel values were binned into 100 equal-area quantiles and then classified into Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extremely High classes of susceptibility. The Extremely High susceptibility classification represents the most vulnerable 1 percent of the island, whereas Very High, High, Moderate, and Low classifications cover 9, 20, 30, and 40 percent of the island, respectively. The susceptibility map is intended to assist in planning future development, mitigation measures, and post-event emergency response; however, it is not a substitute for site-specific, slope-stability assessments performed by licensed geologists and engineers. Additionally, the map does not portray locations where landslide material may travel after mobilization, and which may be at extreme risk; nor does it necessarily portray where landslides may occur during earthquakes or mass wasting triggered by prolonged, relatively low-intensity rainfall.

Puerto Rico↗