Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Landscape”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Buried paleoindian-age landscapes in stream valleys of the central plains, USA

A systematic study of late-Quaternary landscape evolution in the Central Plains documented widespread, deeply buried paleosols that represent Paleoindian-age landscapes in terrace fills of large streams (> 5th order), in alluvial fans, and in draws in areas of western Kansas with a thick loess mantle. Alluvial stratigraphic sections were investigated along a steep bio-climatic gradient extending from the moist-subhumid forest-prairie border of the east-central Plains to the dry-subhumid and semi-arid shortgrass prairie of the west-central Plains. Radiocarbon ages indicate that most large streams were characterized by slow aggradation accompanied by cumulic soil development from ca. 11,500 to 10,000??14C yr B.P. In the valleys of some large streams, such as the Ninnescah and Saline rivers, these processes continued into the early Holocene. The soil-stratigraphic record in the draws of western Kansas indicates slow aggradation punctuated by episodes of landscape stability and pedogenesis beginning as early as ca. 13,300??14C yr B.P. and spanning the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. The development record of alluvial fans in western Kansas is similar to the record in the draws; slow aggradation was punctuated by multiple episodes of soil development between ca. 13,000 and 9000??14C yr B.P. In eastern Kansas and Nebraska, development of alluvial fans was common during the early and middle Holocene, but evidence shows fan development as early as ca. 11,300??14C yr B.P. Buried soils dating between ca. 12,600 and 9000??14C yr B.P. were documented in fans throughout the region. In stream valleys across the Central Plains, rapid alluviation after ca. 9000??14C yr B.P. resulted in deeply buried soils that may harbor Paleoindian cultural deposits. Hence, the paucity of recorded stratified Paleoindian sites in the Central Plains is probably related to poor visibility (i.e., deep burial in alluvial deposits) instead of limited human occupation in the region during the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene. The thick, dark, cumulic A horizons of soils, representing buried Paleoindian-age landscapes, are targets for future archaeological surveys. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2018

Landscape-scale processes influence riparian plant composition along a regulated river

Hierarchical frameworks are useful constructs when exploring landscape- and local-scale factors affecting patterns of vegetation in riparian areas. In drylands, which have steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity, landscape-scale variables, such as climate, can change rapidly along a river's course, affecting the relative influence of environmental variables at different scales. To assess how landscape-scale factors change the structure of riparian vegetation, we measured riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon, determined which factors best explain observed changes, identified how richness and functional diversity vary, and described the implications of our results for river management. Cluster analysis identified three divergent floristic groups that are distributed longitudinally along the river. These groups were distributed along gradients of elevation, temperature and seasonal precipitation, but were not associated with annual precipitation or local-scale factors. Species richness and functional diversity decreased as a function of distance downstream showing that changing landscape-scale factors result in changes to ecosystem characteristics. Species composition and distribution remain closely linked to seasonal precipitation and temperature. These patterns in floristic composition in a semiarid system inform management and provide insights into potential future changes as a result of shifts in climate and changes in flow management.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Cross-continental evaluation of landscape-scale drivers and their impacts to fluvial fishes: Understanding frequency and severity to improve fish conservation in Europe and the United States

Fluvial fishes are threatened globally from intensive human landscape stressors degrading aquatic ecosystems. However, impacts vary regionally, as stressors and natural environmental factors differ between ecoregions and continents. To date, a comparison of fish responses to landscape stressors over continents is lacking, limiting understanding of consistency of impacts and hampering efficiencies in conserving fishes over large regions. This study addresses these shortcomings through a novel, integrative assessment of fluvial fishes throughout Europe and the conterminous United States. Using large-scale datasets, including information on fish assemblages from more than 30,000 locations on both continents, we identified threshold responses of fishes summarized by functional traits to landscape stressors including agriculture, pasture, urban area, road crossings, and human population density. After summarizing stressors by catchment unit (local and network) and constraining analyses by stream size (creeks vs. rivers), we analyzed stressor frequency (number of significant thresholds) and stressor severity (value of identified thresholds) within ecoregions across Europe and the United States. We document hundreds of responses of fish metrics to multi-scale stressors in ecoregions across two continents, providing rich findings to aid in understanding and comparing threats to fishes across the study regions. Collectively, we found that lithophilic species and, as expected, intolerant species are most sensitive to stressors in both continents, while migratory and rheophilic species are similarly strongly affected in the United States. Also, urban land use and human population density were most frequently associated with declines in fish assemblages, underscoring the pervasiveness of these stressors in both continents. This study offers an unprecedented comparison of landscape stressor effects on fluvial fishes in a consistent and comparable manner, supporting conservation of freshwater habitats in both continents and worldwide.

Europe↗
USGS2003

Effects of landscape characteristics on land-cover class accuracy

The effects of patch size and land-cover heterogeneity on classification accuracy were evaluated using reference data collected for the National Land-Cover Data (NLCD) set accuracy assessment. Logistic regression models quantified the relationship between classification accuracy and these landscape variables for each land-cover class at both the Anderson Levels I and II classification schemes employed in the NLCD. The general relationships were consistent, with the odds of correctly classifying a pixel increasing as patch size increased and decreasing as heterogeneity increased. Specific characteristics of these relationships, however, showed considerable diversity among the various classes. Odds ratios are reported to document these relationships. Interaction between the two landscape variables was not a significant influence on classification accuracy, indicating that the effect of heterogeneity was not impacted by the sample being in a small or large patch. Landscape variables remained significant predictors of class-specific accuracy even when adjusted for regional differences in the mapping and assessment processes or landscape characteristics. The land-cover class-specific analyses provide insight into sources of classification error and a capacity for predicting error based on a pixel's mapped land-cover class, patch size and surrounding land-cover heterogeneity.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2020

Carbon dioxide and methane flux in a dynamic Arctic tundra landscape: Decadal‐scale impacts of ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ice wedge degradation is a widespread occurrence across the circumpolar Arctic causing extreme spatial heterogeneity in water distribution, vegetation, and energy balance across landscapes. These heterogeneities influence carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes, yet there is little understanding of how they effect change in landscape‐level carbon (C) gas flux over time. We measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in an area undergoing ice wedge degradation near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and combined with repeat imagery analysis to estimate seasonal landscape‐level C flux response to geomorphic change. Net CO 2 and CH 4 emissions changed by −25% and +42%, respectively, resulting in a 14% increase in seasonal CO 2 ‐C equivalent emissions over 69 years as ice wedge degradation formed water‐filled troughs. The dynamic ice wedge degradation/stabilization process can cause significant changes in CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes over time, and the integration of this process is important to forecasting landscape‐level C fluxes in permafrost regions abundant in ice wedges.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Linking mesoscale meteorology with extreme landscape response: Effects of narrow cold frontal rainbands (NCFR)

Landscapes evolve in response to prolonged and/or intense precipitation resulting from atmospheric processes at various spatial and temporal scales. Whereas synoptic (large‐scale) features (e.g., atmospheric rivers and hurricanes) govern regional‐scale hydrologic hazards such as widespread flooding, mesoscale features such as thunderstorms or squall lines are more likely to trigger localized geomorphic hazards such as landslides. Thus, to better understand relations between hydrometeorological drivers and landscape response, a knowledge of mesoscale meteorology and its impacts is needed. Here we investigate the extreme geomorphic response associated with one type of mesoscale meteorological feature, the narrow cold frontal rainband (NCFR). Resulting from low‐level convergence and shallow convection along a cold front, NCFRs are narrow bands of high‐intensity rainfall that occur in midlatitude areas of the world. Our study examines an NCFR impacting the Sierra Nevada foothills (California, USA) that initiated over 500 landslides, mobilized ~360,000 metric tons of sediment to the fluvial system (as much as 16 times the local annual sediment yield), and severely damaged local infrastructure and regional water transport facilities. Coupling geomorphological field investigations with meteorological analyses, we demonstrate that precipitation associated with the NCFR was both intense (maximum 15 min intensity of 70 mm/hr) and localized, resulting in a highly concentrated band of shallow landsliding. This meteorological phenomenon likely plays an important role in landscape evolution and hazard initiation. Other types of mesoscale meteorological features also occur globally and offer new avenues for understanding the effects of storms on landscapes.

California↗
USGS2022

Hydrologic and landscape controls on dissolved organic matter composition across western North American Arctic lakes

Northern high-latitude lakes are hotspots for cycling dissolved organic carbon (DOC) inputs from allochthonous sources to the atmosphere. However, the spatial distribution of lake dissolved organic matter (DOM) is largely unknown across Arctic-boreal regions with respect to the surrounding landscape. We expand on regional studies of northern high-latitude DOM composition by integrating DOC concentrations, optical properties, and molecular-level characterization from lakes spanning the Canadian Taiga to the Alaskan Tundra. Lakes were sampled during the summer from July to early September to capture the growing season. DOM became more optically processed and molecular-level aromaticity increased northward across the Canadian Shield to the southern Arctic and from interior Alaska to the Tundra, suggesting relatively greater DOM incorporation from allochthonous sources. Using water isotopes (δ 18 O-H 2 O), we report a weak overall trend of increasing DOC and decreasing aromaticity in lakes that were hydrologically isolated from the landscape and enriched in δ 18 O-H 2 O, while within-region trends were stronger and varied depending on the landscape. Finally, DOC correlated weakly with chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) across the study sites, suggesting that autochthonous and photobleached DOM were a major component of the DOC in these regions; however, some of the northernmost and wetland-dominated lakes followed pan-Arctic riverine DOC-CDOM relationships, indicating strong contributions from allochthonous inputs. As many lakes across the North American Arctic are experiencing changes in temperature and precipitation, we expect the proportions of allochthonous and autochthonous DOM to respond with aquatic optical browning with greater landscape connectivity and more internally produced DOM in hydrologically isolated lakes.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2023

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2025

A landscape-scale view of soil organic matter dynamics

Soil carbon is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and could be augmented through improved soil management to mitigate climate change. However, data gaps for numerous regions and a lack of understanding of the heterogeneity of biogeochemical processes across diverse soil landscapes hinder the development of large-scale representations of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. In this Perspective, we outline how understanding soil formation processes and complexity at the landscape scale can inform predictions of soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and soil carbon sequestration. Long-term alterations of the soil matrix caused by weathering and soil redistribution vary across climate zones and ecosystems, but particularly with the structure of landscapes at the regional scale. Thus, oversimplified generalizations that assume that the drivers of SOM dynamics can be scaled directly from local to global regimes and vice versa leads to large uncertainties in global projections of soil C stocks. Data-driven models with enhanced coverage of underrepresented regions, particularly where soils are physicochemically distinct and environmental change is most rapid, are key to understanding C turnover and stabilization at landscape scales to better predict global soil carbon dynamics.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2013

Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

Mojave Desert↗
USGS2013

Landscape-scale evaluation of asymmetric interactions between Brown Trout and Brook Trout using two-species occupancy models

Predicting the distribution of native stream fishes is fundamental to the management and conservation of many species. Modeling species distributions often consists of quantifying relationships between species occurrence and abundance data at known locations with environmental data at those locations. However, it is well documented that native stream fish distributions can be altered as a result of asymmetric interactions between dominant exotic and subordinate native species. For example, the naturalized exotic Brown Trout Salmo trutta has been identified as a threat to native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern United States. To evaluate large-scale patterns of co-occurrence and to quantify the potential effects of Brown Trout presence on Brook Trout occupancy, we used data from 624 stream sites to fit two-species occupancy models. These models assumed that asymmetric interactions occurred between the two species. In addition, we examined natural and anthropogenic landscape characteristics we hypothesized would be important predictors of occurrence of both species. Estimated occupancy for Brook Trout, from a co-occurrence model with no landscape covariates, at sites with Brown Trout present was substantially lower than sites where Brown Trout were absent. We also observed opposing patterns for Brook and Brown Trout occurrence in relation to percentage forest, impervious surface, and agriculture within the network catchment. Our results are consistent with other studies and suggest that alterations to the landscape, and specifically the transition from a forested catchment to one that contains impervious surface or agriculture, reduces the occurrence probability of wild Brook Trout. Our results, however, also suggest that the presence of Brown Trout results in lower occurrence probability of Brook Trout over a range of anthropogenic landscape characteristics, compared with streams where Brown Trout were absent.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2006

Impacts of new highways and subsequent landscape urbanization on stream habitat and biota

New highways are pervasive, pernicious threats to stream ecosystems because of their short- and long-term physical, chemical, and biological impacts. Unfortunately, standard environmental impact statements (EISs) and environmental assessments (EAs) focus narrowly on the initial direct impacts of construction and ignore other long-term indirect impacts. More thorough consideration of highway impacts, and, ultimately, better land use decisions may be facilitated by conceptualizing highway development in three stages: initial highway construction, highway presence, and eventual landscape urbanization. Highway construction is characterized by localized physical disturbances, which generally subside through time. In contrast, highway presence and landscape urbanization are characterized by physical and chemical impacts that are temporally persistent. Although the impacts of highway presence and landscape urbanization are of similar natures, the impacts are of a greater magnitude and more widespread in the urbanization phase. Our review reveals that the landscape urbanization stage is clearly the greatest threat to stream habitat and biota, as stream ecosystems are sensitive to even low levels (<10%) of watershed urban development. Although highway construction is ongoing, pervasive, and has severe biological consequences, we found few published investigations of its impacts on streams. Researchers know little about the occurrence, loading rates, and biotic responses to specific contaminants in highway runoff. Also needed is a detailed understanding of how highway crossings, especially culverts, affect fish populations via constraints on movement and how highway networks alter natural regimes (e.g., streamflow, temperature). Urbanization research topics that may yield especially useful results include a) the relative importance and biological effects of specific components of urban development - e.g., commercial or residential; b) the scenarios under which impacts are reversible; and c) the efficacy of mitigation measures - e.g., stormwater retention or treatment and forested buffers. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Inc.

Reviews in Fisheries Science↗
USGS2003

Using tree recruitment patterns and fire history to guide restoration of an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir landscape in the southern Rocky Mountains after a century of fire suppression

Tree age and fire history were studied in an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir ( Pinus ponderosa/Pseudotsuga menziesii ) landscape in the Colorado Front Range mountains. These data were analysed to understand tree survival during fire and post‐fire recruitment patterns after fire, as a basis for understanding the characteristics of, and restoration needs for, an ecologically sustainable landscape. Comparisons of two independent tree age data sets indicated that sampling what subjectively appear to be the five oldest trees in a forest polygon could identify the oldest tree. Comparisons of the ages of the oldest trees in each data set with maps of fire history suggested that delays in establishment of trees, after stand‐replacing fire, ranged from a few years to more than a century. These data indicate that variable fire severity, including patches of stand replacement, and variable temporal patterns of tree recruitment into openings after fire were major causes of spatial heterogeneity of patch structure in the landscape. These effects suggest that restoring current dense and homogeneous ponderosa pine forests to an ecologically sustainable and dynamic condition should reflect the roles of fires and variable patterns of tree recruitment in regulating landscape structure.

Forestry↗
USGS2018

Importance of riparian forest corridors for the ocelot in agricultural landscapes

Worldwide, private lands have attracted increased attention from conservationists, not only because most of the globe is privately owned, but also because private lands can be an asset to the protected area conservation strategy. In Brazil, the riverine Areas of Permanent Protection (APPs) is a key instrument of the Forest Code to protect native vegetation on private lands. Although APPs were conceived to function as potential wildlife corridors, this putative role has been rarely assessed. Further, recent debatable changes in the Forest Code have decreased the extent of APPs. Given this lack of information and the declining area being protected along with the growing demand for agricultural and biofuel production, which stimulate additional deforestation, it is timely to assess the role of APPs in wildlife conservation. We did this analyzing how ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) occurrence is influenced by covariates in 3 cerrado landscapes dominated by sugarcane and managed forests of eucalyptus and pine trees. We collected detection/non-detection data by camera trapping during 2 dry seasons (2013 and 2014) at 208 stations (6606 camera-days). We estimated ocelot detection and mean relative abundance using a single-species/single-season occupancy model that accounts for heterogeneous detection probability induced by variation in abundance. Modeling results showed that percentage of native forest was the most important covariate to explain ocelot mean relative abundance. This parameter was also affected positively by APPs, with ocelots being more abundant inside than outside APPs and, unexpectedly, by sugarcane. Given study design, however, the positive effect of this crop likely reflects the contact zone between sugarcane and native forest. Our findings show that landscape composition affects ocelot abundance and highlight the importance of APPs and Legal Reserves in agricultural landscapes. We conclude that, in such landscapes, compliance to the Forest Code by private land owners is key to supporting ocelot occurrence.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2021

The influence of species life history and distribution characteristics on species responses to habitat fragmentation in an urban landscape

Fragmentation within urbanized environments often leads to a loss of native species diversity; however, variation exists in responses among-species and among-populations within species. We aimed to identify patterns in species biogeography in an urbanized landscape to understand anthropogenic effects on vertebrate communities and identify species that are more sensitive or resilient to landscape change. We investigated patterns in species richness and species responses to fragmentation in southern Californian small vertebrate communities using multispecies occupancy models and determined factors associated with overall commonness and sensitivity to patch size for 45 small vertebrate species both among and within remaining non-developed patches. In general, smaller patches had fewer species, with amphibian species richness being particularly sensitive to patch size effects. Mammals were generally more common, occurring both in a greater proportion of patches and a higher proportion of the sites within occupied patches. Alternatively, amphibians were generally restricted to larger patches but were more ubiquitous within smaller patches when occupied. Species range size was positively correlated with how common a species was across and within patches, even when controlling for only patches that fell within a species' range. We found sensitivity to patch size was greater for more fecund species and depended on where the patch occurred within a species' range. While all taxa were more likely to occur in patches in the warmer portions of their ranges, amphibians and mammals were more sensitive to fragmentation in these warmer areas as compared to the rest of their ranges. Similarly, amphibians occurred at a smaller proportion of sites within patches in drier portions of their ranges. Mammals occurred at a higher proportion of sites that were also in drier portions of their range while reptiles did not differ in their sensitivity to patch size by range position. We demonstrate that taxonomy, life history, range size and range position can predict commonness and sensitivity of species across this highly fragmented yet biodiverse landscape. The impacts of fragmentation on species communities within an urban landscape depend on scale, with differences emerging among and within species and populations.

California↗
USGS2018

Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to any number of possible transitions. A current limitation of the STSM method, however, is that all of the state variables must be discrete. Here we present a new approach for extending a STSM, in order to account for continuous state variables, called a state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows (STSM-SF). The STSM-SF method allows for any number of continuous stocks to be defined for every spatial cell in the STSM, along with a suite of continuous flows specifying the rates at which stock levels change over time. The change in the level of each stock is then simulated forward in time, for each spatial cell, as a discrete-time stochastic process. The method differs from the traditional systems dynamics approach to stock-flow modelling in that the stocks and flows can be spatially-explicit, and the flows can be expressed as a function of the STSM states and transitions. We demonstrate the STSM-SF method by integrating a spatially-explicit carbon (C) budget model with a STSM of LULC change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. In this example, continuous stocks are pools of terrestrial C, while the flows are the possible fluxes of C between these pools. Importantly, several of these C fluxes are triggered by corresponding LULC transitions in the STSM. Model outputs include changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of C pools and fluxes across the landscape in response to projected future changes in LULC over the next 50 years. The new STSM-SF method allows both discrete and continuous state variables to be integrated into a STSM, including interactions between them. With the addition of stocks and flows, STSMs provide a conceptually simple yet powerful approach for characterizing uncertainties in projections of a wide range of questions regarding landscape change.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2026

Connecting and coordinating conservation action across landscapes through regional planning processes and syntheses

Modern threats to conservation are often global; however, relevant conservation decisions and actions typically occur within local jurisdictions. The socio-ecological complexity of these problems requires collaboration across large landscapes, diverse community interests, and geopolitical boundaries, yet a lack of interoperability of planning products among decision makers, jurisdictions, and objectives impedes collaboration. Here, we provide a working model for the collaborative, iterative development of a landscape conservation design (LCD) in the Midwest region of the United States, the Midwest Conservation Blueprint, and demonstrate its applicability to the coordination of voluntary conservation actions and investments across jurisdictional boundaries. We used spatial prioritization software to synthesize over 20 datasets to develop a basemap of priority lands and waters for conservation across a diverse set of societal and ecological values (e.g., water quality, biodiversity, recreation). The Midwest Conservation Blueprint is a living plan, updated annually based on improvements in underlying data, understanding of local conditions, and public input. Landscape-scale planning is not designed to replace local knowledge or supersede decision-making authorities. However, by synthesizing existing data that represent diverse socio-ecological values and planning at a broader scale, the Midwest Conservation Blueprint documents where there are shared priorities and opportunities for collaborative landscape conservation.

Midwest↗
USGS2014

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize ( Zea mays ) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

Nebraska↗