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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

Analysis of pesticides in surface water and sediment from Yolo Bypass, California, 2004-2005

Inputs to the Yolo Bypass are potential sources of pesticides that could impact critical life stages of native fish. To assess the direct inputs during inundation, pesticide concentrations were analyzed in water, in suspended and bed-sediment samples collected from six source watersheds to the Yolo Bypass, and from three sites within the Bypass in 2004 and 2005. Water samples were collected in February 2004 from the six input sites to the Bypass during the first flood event of the year representing pesticide inputs during high-flow events. Samples were also collected along a transect across the Bypass in early March 2004 and from three sites within the Bypass in the spring of 2004 under low-flow conditions. Low-flow data were used to understand potential pesticide contamination and its effects on native fish if water from these areas were used to flood the Bypass in dry years. To assess loads of pesticides to the Bypass associated with suspended sediments, large-volume water samples were collected during high flows in 2004 and 2005 from three sites, whereas bed sediments were collected from six sites in the fall of 2004 during the dry season. Thirteen current-use pesticides were detected in surface water samples collected during the study. The highest pesticide concentrations detected at the input sites to the Bypass corresponded to the first high-flow event of the year. The highest pesticide concentrations at the two sites sampled within the Bypass during the early spring were detected in mid-April following a major flood event as the water began to subside. The pesticides detected and their concentrations in the surface waters varied by site; however, hexazinone and simazine were detected at all sites and at some of the highest concentrations. Thirteen current-use pesticides and three organochlorine insecticides were detected in bed and suspended sediments collected in 2004 and 2005. The pesticides detected and their concentrations varied by site and sediment sample type. Trifluralin, p,p'-DDE, and p,p'-DDT were highest in the bed sediments, whereas oxyfluorfen and thiobencarb were highest in the suspended sediments. With the exception of the three organochlorine insecticides, suspended sediments had higher pesticide concentrations compared with bed sediments, indicating the potential for pesticide transport throughout the Bypass, especially during high-flow events. Understanding the distribution of pesticides between the water and sediment is needed to assess fate and transport within the Bypass and to evaluate the potential effects on native fish.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water Quality, Hydrology, and Response to Changes in Phosphorus Loading of Nagawicka Lake, a Calcareous Lake in Waukesha County, Wisconsin

Nagawicka Lake is a 986-acre, usually mesotrophic, calcareous lake in southeastern Wisconsin. Because of concern over potential water-quality degradation of the lake associated with further development in its watershed, a study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2002 to 2006 to describe the water quality and hydrology of the lake; quantify sources of phosphorus, including those associated with urban development; and determine the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus loading on the water quality of the lake. All major water and phosphorus sources were measured directly, and minor sources were estimated to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets for the lake. The Bark River, near-lake surface inflow, precipitation, and ground water contributed 74, 8, 12, and 6 percent of the inflow, respectively. Water leaves the lake primarily through the Bark River outlet (88 percent) or by evaporation (11 percent). The water quality of Nagawicka Lake has improved dramatically since 1980 as a result of decreasing the historical loading of phosphorus to the lake. Total input of phosphorus to the lake was about 3,000 pounds in monitoring year (MY) 2003 and 6,700 pounds in MY 2004. The largest source of phosphorus entering the lake was the Bark River, which delivered about 56 percent of the total phosphorus input, compared with about 74 percent of the total water input. The next largest contributions were from the urbanized near-lake drainage area, which disproportionately accounted for 37 percent of the total phosphorus input but only about 5 percent of the total water input. Simulations with water-quality models within the Wisconsin Lakes Modeling Suite (WiLMS) indicated the response of Nagawicka Lake to 10 phosphorus-loading scenarios. These scenarios included historical (1970s) and current (base) years (MY 2003-04) for which lake water quality and loading were known, six scenarios with percentage increases or decreases in phosphorus loading from controllable sources relative to the base years 2003-04, and two scenarios corresponding to specific management actions. Because of the lake's calcareous character, the average simulated summer concentration of total phosphorus for Nagawicka Lake was about 2 times that measured in the lake. The models likely over-predict because they do not account for coprecipitation of phosphorus and dissolved organic matter with calcite, negligible release of phosphorus from the deep sediments, and external phosphorus loading with abnormally high amounts of nonavailable phosphorus. After adjusting the simulated results for the overestimation of the models, a 50-percent reduction in phosphorus loading resulted in an average predicted phosphorus concentration of 0.008 milligrams per liter (mg/L) (a decrease of 46 percent). With a 50-percent increase in phosphorus loading, the average predicted concentration was 0.020 mg/L (an increase of 45 percent). With the changes in land use under the assumed future full development conditions, the average summer total phosphorus concentration should remain similar to that measured in MY 2003-04 (approximately 0.014 mg/L). However, if stormwater and nonpoint controls are added to achieve a 50-percent reduction in loading from the urbanized near-lake drainage area, the average summer total phosphorus concentration should decrease from the present conditions (MY 2003-04) to 0.011 mg/L. Slightly more than a 25-percent reduction in phosphorus loading from that measured in MY 2003-04 would be required for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water Quality and Hydrology of Whitefish (Bardon) Lake, Douglas County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of an Oligotrophic Seepage Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Whitefish Lake, which is officially named Bardon Lake, is an oligotrophic, soft-water seepage lake in northwestern Wisconsin, and classified by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an Outstanding Resource Water. Ongoing monitoring of the lake demonstrated that its water quality began to degrade (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations) around 2002 following a period of high water level. To provide a better understanding of what caused the degradation in water quality, and provide information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. The goals of the study were to describe the past and present water quality of the lake, quantify water and phosphorus budgets for the lake, simulate the potential effects of changes in phosphorus inputs on the lake's water quality, analyze changes in the water level in the lake since 1900, and relate the importance of changes in climate and changes in anthropogenic (human-induced) factors in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. Since 1998, total phosphorus concentrations increased from near the 0.005-milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit to about 0.010 mg/L in 2006, and then decreased slightly in 2007-08. During this time, chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths remained relatively stable at about 1.5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and 26 feet, respectively. Whitefish Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic. Because the productivity in Whitefish Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets were constructed for the lake. Because it was believed that much of its phosphorus comes from the atmosphere, phosphorus deposition was measured in this study. Phosphorus input from the atmosphere was greater than computed based on previously reported wetfall phosphorus concentrations. The concentrations and deposition rates can be used to estimate atmospheric loading in future lake studies. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 232 pounds: 56 percent from precipitation, 27 percent from groundwater, and 16 percent from septic systems. During a series of dry years (low water levels) and wet years (high water levels), the inputs of water and phosphorus ranged by only 10-13 percent. Results from the Canfield and Bachmann eutrophication model and Carlson trophic-state-index equations demonstrated that the lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus loading, with percent change in chlorophyll a being similar to the percent change in loading and the change in total phosphorus and Secchi depth being slightly smaller. Therefore, changes in phosphorus loading should affect the water quality of the lake. Specific scenarios that simulated the effects of anthropogenic (human-induced) and climatic (water level) changes demonstrated that: surface-water inflow (runoff) based on current development has little effect on pelagic water quality, changes in the inputs from septic systems and development in the watershed could have a large effect on water quality, and decreases in water and phosphorus loading during periods of low water level had little effect on water quality. Sustained high water levels, resulting from several wet years with relatively high water and phosphorus input, however, could cause a small degradation in water quality. Although high water levels may be associated with a degradation in water quality, it appears that anthropogenic changes in the watershed may be more important in affecting the future water quality of the lake. Fluctuations in water levels since 1998 are representative of what has occurred since 1900, with fluctuations of about 3 feet occurring about every 15 years. Based on total phosphorus concentrations inferred from sediment core analysis, there has been little long-term change in water quality and there has been a slight deterioration in water quality following most periods of high water levels. There

Scientific Investigations Report

Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs to assess the sensitivity of firm-yield estimates to errors in daily-streamflow input data. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate that underestimation in the lowest stream inflows can cause firm yields to be underestimated by an average of 1 to 10 percent. Errors in the stage-storage relation can arise when the point density of bathymetric survey measurements is too low. Existing bathymetric surfaces were resampled using hypothetical transects of varying patterns and point densities in order to quantify the uncertainty in stage-storage relations. Reservoir-volume calculations and resulting firm yields were accurate to within 5 percent when point densities were greater than 20 points per acre of reservoir surface. Methods for incorporating summer water-demand-reduction scenarios into the firm-yield model were developed as well as the ability to relax the no-fail reliability criterion. Although the original firm-yield model allowed monthly reservoir releases to be specified, there have been no previous studies examining the feasibility of controlled releases for downstream flows from Massachusetts reservoirs. Two controlled-release scenarios were tested—with and without a summer water-demand-reduction scenario—for a scenario with a no-fail criterion and a scenario that allows for a 1-percent failure rate over the entire simulation period. Based on these scenarios, about one-third of the reservoir systems were able to support the flow-release scenarios at their 2000–2004 usage rates. Reservoirs with higher storage ratios (reservoir storage capacity to mean annual streamflow) and lower demand ratios (mean annual water demand to annual firm yield) were capable of higher downstream release rates. For the purposes of this research, all reservoir systems were assumed to have structures which enable controlled releases, although this assumption may not be true for many of the reservoirs studied.

Massachusetts

Ambient and potential denitrification rates in marsh soils of Northeast Creek and Bass Harbor Marsh watersheds, Mount Desert Island, Maine

Nutrient enrichment from atmospheric deposition, agricultural activities, wildlife, and domestic sources is a concern at Acadia National Park on Mount Desert Island, Maine, because of the potential problems of degradation of water quality and eutrophication in estuaries. Degradation of water quality has been observed at Bass Harbor Marsh estuary in the park but only minimally in Northeast Creek estuary. Previous studies at Acadia National Park have estimated nutrient inputs to estuaries from atmospheric deposition and surface-water runoff, and have identified shallow groundwater as an additional potential source of nutrients. Previous studies at Acadia National Park have assumed that a certain fraction of the nitrogen input was removed through microbial denitrification, but rates of denitrification (natural or maximum potential) in marsh soils have not been determined. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Acadia National Park, measured in-place denitrification rates in marsh soils in Northeast Creek and in Bass Harbor Marsh watersheds during summer 2008 and summer 2009. Denitrification was measured under ambient conditions as well as after additions of inorganic nitrogen and glucose. In-place denitrification rates under ambient conditions were similar to those reported for other coastal wetlands, although they were generally lower than those reported for salt marshes having high ambient concentrations of nitrate (NO 3 ). Denitrification rates generally increased by at least an order of magnitude following NO 3 additions, with or without glucose (as the carbohydrate) additions, compared with the ambient treatments that received no nutrient additions. The treatment that added both glucose and NO 3 resulted in a variety of denitrification responses when compared with the addition of NO 3 alone. In most cases, the addition of glucose to a given rate of NO3 addition resulted in higher rates of denitrification. These variable responses indicate that the amount of labile carbohydrates can limit denitrification even if NO 3 is present. For most sites in both watersheds, the maximum denitrification rates ranged from of 150 to 900 micromoles of nitrous oxide per square meter per hour. These rates were equivalent to the release of 37 to 221 grams of nitrogen per square meter per year. Weak positive correlations were observed for soil temperature and for measured ammonium concentration in groundwater. Weak negative correlations were observed between denitrification rate and water level and specific conductance. The rates of denitrification in Bass Harbor Marsh and Northeast Creek under ambient conditions, both of which were relatively low, indicate that NO 3 availability is low in both systems. It is evident from the addition of combined treatments of NO 3 and glucose that these marsh soils are capable of comparatively high rates of denitrification, therefore, estuarine eutrophication is not a result of nitrogen inputs to marsh soils that are in excess of the denitrification capacity in these systems. If terrestrial inputs to the estuary are the cause of the observed eutrophic condition in Bass Harbor Marsh, then these inputs to the estuary must bypass the marsh in channelized surface flow, or perhaps they circumvent the marsh in shallow groundwater seepage along subsurface pathways that enter the estuary directly.

Maine

County-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus from commercial fertilizer for the Conterminous United States, 1987-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment program requires nutrient input for analysis of the national and regional assessment of water quality. Detailed information on nutrient inputs to the environment are needed to understand and address the many serious problems that arise from excess nutrients in the streams and groundwater of the Nation. This report updates estimated county-level farm and nonfarm nitrogen and phosphorus input from commercial fertilizer sales for the conterminous United States for 1987 through 2006. Estimates were calculated from the Association of American Plant Food Control Officials fertilizer sales data, Census of Agriculture fertilizer expenditures, and U.S. Census Bureau county population. A previous national approach for deriving farm and nonfarm fertilizer nutrient estimates was evaluated, and a revised method for selecting representative states to calculate national farm and nonfarm proportions was developed. A national approach was used to estimate farm and nonfarm fertilizer inputs because not all states distinguish between farm and nonfarm use, and the quality of fertilizer reporting varies from year to year. For states that distinguish between farm and nonfarm use, the spatial distribution of the ratios of nonfarm-to-total fertilizer estimates for nitrogen and phosphorus calculated using the national-based farm and nonfarm proportions were similar to the spatial distribution of the ratios generated using state-based farm and nonfarm proportions. In addition, the relative highs and lows in the temporal distribution of farm and nonfarm nitrogen and phosphorus input at the state level were maintained—the periods of high and low usage coincide between national- and state-based values. With a few exceptions, nonfarm nitrogen estimates were found to be reasonable when compared to the amounts that would result if the lawn application rates recommended by state and university agricultural agencies were used. Also, states with higher nonfarm-to-total fertilizer ratios for nitrogen and phosphorus tended to have higher urban land-use percentages.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water and nutrient budgets for Vancouver Lake, Vancouver, Washington, October 2010-October 2012

Vancouver Lake, a large shallow lake in Clark County, near Vancouver, Washington, has been undergoing water-quality problems for decades. Recently, the biggest concern for the lake are the almost annual harmful cyanobacteria blooms that cause the lake to close for recreation for several weeks each summer. Despite decades of interest in improving the water quality of the lake, fundamental information on the timing and amount of water and nutrients entering and exiting the lake is lacking. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 2-year field study to quantify water flows and nutrient loads in order to develop water and nutrient budgets for the lake. This report presents monthly and annual water and nutrient budgets from October 2010–October 2012 to identify major sources and sinks of nutrients. Lake River, a tidally influenced tributary to the lake, flows into and out of the lake almost daily and composed the greatest proportion of both the water and nutrient budgets for the lake, often at orders of magnitude greater than any other source. From the water budget, we identified precipitation, evaporation and groundwater inflow as minor components of the lake hydrologic cycle, each contributing 1 percent or less to the total water budget. Nutrient budgets were compiled monthly and annually for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and, nitrogen loads were generally an order of magnitude greater than phosphorus loads across all sources. For total nitrogen, flow from Lake River at Felida, Washington, made up 88 percent of all inputs into the lake. For total phosphorus and orthophosphate, Lake River at Felida flowing into the lake was 91 and 76 percent of total inputs, respectively. Nutrient loads from precipitation and groundwater inflow were 1 percent or less of the total budgets. Nutrient inputs from Burnt Bridge Creek and Flushing Channel composed 12 percent of the total nitrogen budget, 8 percent of the total phosphorus budget, and 21 percent of the orthophosphate budget. We identified several data gaps and areas for future research, which include the need for better understanding nutrient inputs to the lake from sediment resuspension and better quantification of indirect nutrient inputs to the lake from Salmon Creek.

Washington

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin

Response of Green Lake, Wisconsin, to changes in phosphorus loading, with special emphasis on near-surface total phosphorus concentrations and metalimnetic dissolved oxygen minima

Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment. As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl- a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl- a ) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl- a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.

Wisconsin

Automated construction of Streamflow-Routing networks for MODFLOW—Application in the Mississippi Embayment region

In humid regions with dense stream networks, surface water exerts a fundamental control on the water levels and flow directions of shallow groundwater. Understanding interactions between groundwater and surface water is critical for managing groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Representing streams in groundwater models has historically been arduous and error prone. In recent years, however, all the information needed to numerically describe stream boundary conditions for a model area has become readily available online, as have robust open-source software tools for translating that information to a model grid. The SFRmaker Python package leverages geospatial capabilities in the scientific Python ecosystem to robustly automate the production of input to the Streamflow-Routing (SFR) Package of MODFLOW from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus or other hydrography data. This report documents an application of SFRmaker to automate production of SFR Package input for groundwater models within the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study area. SFR Package input was developed in three steps: (1) preprocessing to develop a single set of grid-independent flowlines from National Hydrography Dataset Plus version 2 data; (2) setting up the SFR package from the preprocessed flowlines, and (3) correcting streambed top elevations after an initial model run. Separating the hydrography preprocessing from the construction of SFR Package input was advantageous in that it minimized the need to repeat computationally expensive geoprocessing (thereby speeding model construction) and also allowed for the curation of a single set of grid-independent SFR input data that can be used for any MODFLOW model within the study area.

Mississippi Embayment Region

Numerical model of the groundwater-flow system near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

Groundwater flow in the active model area (AMA) was simulated using a groundwater-flow model. A steady-state model version of the model simulates equilibrium conditions, and a transient model version simulates monthly variability. The model corresponds to the physical and temporal dimensions of the conceptual model and groundwater budget. The steady-state model version represents average conditions for an 11-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2015), and the transient model represents monthly hydrologic variability within that period. The 13-layer model was constructed using MODFLOW-NWT with a uniformly spaced grid consisting of 416 rows, 433 columns, and cells with a horizontal dimension of 500 feet (ft) on a side. The model was calibrated to measured values of water levels in wells and lakes and estimated base flow for selected streamflow measurement stations, commonly referred to as streamgages. Model calibration was accomplished using a combination of manual and automatic methods, including the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted model input parameters with the aim of minimizing the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. Model boundary conditions consist of all simulated groundwater inflow to and outflow from the AMA. For example, a stream reach that simulates a gain from or loss to groundwater is a boundary condition that allows water to exit or enter, respectively, the groundwater system. Other boundary conditions include springs, seeps, precipitation recharge, groundwater exchange with lakes and Puget Sound, and groundwater pumping. A comparison of the estimated groundwater budget to that simulated by the steady-state model version indicates that the relative percentages of total inflow or total outflow for six major categories of boundary conditions are similar for the two budgets. The model was used to simulate three suites of scenarios of potential drought and water-use changes. Scenario 1 suite consisted of the steady-state model version that was run with 0, 15, 20, and 25 percent reduction of precipitation recharge to assess the corresponding reductions in base flow with decreasing recharge. The last simulation for the scenario 1 suite consisted of the transient model version simulating 3 years of consecutive seasonal drought, defined by the months of May through September, to assess the corresponding base-flow reductions. Scenario 2 suite consisted of the steady-state model version with all simulated groundwater use removed, compared with a simulation that includes current groundwater use to evaluate changes to potentiometric surfaces and base flows. Scenario 3 suite consisted of a transient model version of the model that simulated pumping increases for four different categories of water-supply wells (compared to no pumping increases) to evaluate resulting reductions in base flow. Although, these scenarios provide examples of model applications and useful insights, many other scenarios could be simulated. A description of how to download the model is described in the body of this report. Uncertainty is associated with most model inputs. Groundwater levels, lake levels, and land-surface altitudes are relatively certain; other model inputs are far less certain, including precipitation recharge, base flow, hydraulic properties, water use, and the three-dimensional structure of subsurface hydrogeologic units. Models are useful not because of high levels of accuracy of all model inputs, but because they combine the best information and estimates available, thereby providing the best predictions available related to physical processes. The model described in this report simulates groundwater flow on a regional scale, which has inherent limitations for simulating hydrologic scenarios at local scales. Model structures and inputs were generalized to be consistent with this regional scale. For example, the actual groundwater system has much greater heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity than is possible within the model’s degrees of freedom. Variations in hydraulic gradients over distances less than 500 ft cannot be simulated. The distances between model features, such as a pumping well and a stream, must be placed at 500-ft intervals and are co-located if both features are within the same model cell.

Washington

MODFLOW-NWT, a Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005

This report documents a Newton formulation of MODFLOW-2005, called MODFLOW-NWT. MODFLOW-NWT is a standalone program that is intended for solving problems involving drying and rewetting nonlinearities of the unconfined groundwater-flow equation. MODFLOW-NWT must be used with the Upstream-Weighting (UPW) Package for calculating intercell conductances in a different manner than is done in the Block-Centered Flow (BCF), Layer Property Flow (LPF), or Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF; Anderman and Hill, 2000) Packages. The UPW Package treats nonlinearities of cell drying and rewetting by use of a continuous function of groundwater head, rather than the discrete approach of drying and rewetting that is used by the BCF, LPF, and HUF Packages. This further enables application of the Newton formulation for unconfined groundwater-flow problems because conductance derivatives required by the Newton method are smooth over the full range of head for a model cell. The NWT linearization approach generates an asymmetric matrix, which is different from the standard MODFLOW formulation that generates a symmetric matrix. Because all linear solvers presently available for use with MODFLOW-2005 solve only symmetric matrices, MODFLOW-NWT includes two previously developed asymmetric matrix-solver options. The matrix-solver options include a generalized-minimum-residual (GMRES) Solver and an Orthomin / stabilized conjugate-gradient (CGSTAB) Solver. The GMRES Solver is documented in a previously published report, such that only a brief description and input instructions are provided in this report. However, the CGSTAB Solver (called X MD) is documented in this report. Flow-property input for the UPW Package is designed based on the LPF Package and material-property input is identical to that for the LPF Package except that the rewetting and vertical-conductance correction options of the LPF Package are not available with the UPW Package. Input files constructed for the LPF Package can be used with slight modification as input for the UPW Package. This report presents the theory and methods used by MODFLOW-NWT, including the UPW Package. Additionally, this report provides comparisons of the new methodology to analytical solutions of groundwater flow and to standard MODFLOW-2005 results by use of an unconfined aquifer MODFLOW example problem. The standard MODFLOW-2005 simulation uses the LPF Package with the wet/dry option active. A new example problem also is presented to demonstrate MODFLOW-NWT's ability to provide a solution for a difficult unconfined groundwater-flow problem.

Techniques and Methods

GWM-VI: groundwater management with parallel processing for multiple MODFLOW versions

Groundwater Management–Version Independent (GWM–VI) is a new version of the Groundwater Management Process of MODFLOW. The Groundwater Management Process couples groundwater-flow simulation with a capability to optimize stresses on the simulated aquifer based on an objective function and constraints imposed on stresses and aquifer state. GWM–VI extends prior versions of Groundwater Management in two significant ways—(1) it can be used with any version of MODFLOW that meets certain requirements on input and output, and (2) it is structured to allow parallel processing of the repeated runs of the MODFLOW model that are required to solve the optimization problem. GWM–VI uses the same input structure for files that describe the management problem as that used by prior versions of Groundwater Management. GWM–VI requires only minor changes to the input files used by the MODFLOW model. GWM–VI uses the Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability Application Programming Interface (JUPITER-API) to implement both version independence and parallel processing. GWM–VI communicates with the MODFLOW model by manipulating certain input files and interpreting results from the MODFLOW listing file and binary output files. Nearly all capabilities of prior versions of Groundwater Management are available in GWM–VI. GWM–VI has been tested with MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT (a Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005), MF2005-FMP2 (the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005), SEAWAT, and CFP (Conduit Flow Process for MODFLOW-2005). This report provides sample problems that demonstrate a range of applications of GWM–VI and the directory structure and input information required to use the parallel-processing capability.

Techniques and Methods

Revision of ModelMuse to support the use of PEST software with MODFLOW and SUTRA models

Executive Summary ModelMuse is a graphical user interface for several groundwater modeling programs. ModelMuse was updated to generate the input files for the parameter estimation software suite PEST. The software is used with MODFLOW or SUTRA models to run PEST-based parameter estimation and display the updated model inputs after parameter estimation. The PEST input files can also be used with the PEST++ version 5 software suite. Parameter estimation typically requires defining the parameters being adjusted during calibration and observations for assessing calibration quality. After a parameter is defined in ModelMuse, it can be applied to all or part of a model dataset. Pilot points—a parameterization device that facilitates higher levels of parameterization—can be used to assign spatially variable distributions of model inputs. Parameters can be applied to temporally varying features, such as boundary conditions, by either applying them to all the values in a series in one step or by applying separate parameters to individual members of a series. ModelMuse allows the definition of many observation types from various model output files. For MODFLOW 6 and SUTRA models, new options were added to ModelMuse to allow it to display the changed input after parameter estimation is complete. For MODFLOW–2005 and MODFLOW–NWT models, ModelMuse can import an entire model for visualization. An example illustrates the use of PEST with a MODFLOW 6 model in ModelMuse.

Techniques and Methods

Nutrient, trace-element, and ecological history of Musky Bay, Lac Courte Oreilles, Wisconsin, as inferred from sediment cores

Sediment cores were collected from Musky Bay, Lac Courte Oreilles, and from surrounding areas in 1999 and 2001 to determine whether the water quality of Musky Bay has declined during the last 100 years or more as a result of human activity, specifically cottage development and cranberry farming. Selected cores were analyzed for sedimentation rates, nutrients, minor and trace elements, biogenic silica, diatom assemblages, and pollen over the past several decades. Two cranberry bogs constructed along Musky Bay in 1939 and the early 1950s were substantially expanded between 1950?62 and between 1980?98. Cottage development on Musky Bay has occurred at a steady rate since about 1930, although currently housing density on Musky Bay is one-third to one-half the housing density surrounding three other Lac Courte Oreilles bays. Sedimentation rates were reconstructed for a core from Musky Bay by use of three lead radioisotope models and the cesium-137 profile. The historical average mass and linear sedimentation rates for Musky Bay are 0.023 grams per square centimeter per year and 0.84 centimeters per year, respectively, for the period of about 1936?90. There is also limited evidence that sedimentation rates may have increased after the mid-1990s. Historical changes in input of organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur to Musky Bay could not be directly identified from concentration profiles of these elements because of the potential for postdepositional migration and recycling. Minor- and trace-element profiles from the Musky Bay core possibly reflect historical changes in the input of clastic material over time, as well as potential changes in atmospheric deposition inputs. The input of clastic material to the bay increased slightly after European settlement and possibly in the 1930s through 1950s. Concentrations of copper in the Musky Bay core increased steadily through the early to mid-1900s until about 1980 and appear to reflect inputs from atmospheric deposition. Aluminum- normalized concentrations of calcium, copper, nickel, and zinc increased in the Musky Bay core in the mid-1990s. However, concentrations of these elements in surficial sediment from Musky Bay were similar to concentrations in other Lac Courte Oreilles bays, nearby lakes, and soils and were below probable effects concentrations for aquatic life. Biogenic-silica, diatom-community, and pollen profiles indicate that Musky Bay has become more eutrophic since about 1940 with the onset of cottage development and cranberry farming. The water quality of the bay has especially degraded during the last 25 years with increased growth of aquatic plants and the onset of a floating algal mat during the last decade. Biogenic silica data indicate that diatom production has consistently increased since the 1930s. Diatom assemblage profiles indicate a shift from low-nutrient species to higher-nutrient species during the 1940s and that aquatic plants reached their present density and/or composition during the 1970s. The diatom Fragilaria capucina (indicative of algal mat) greatly increased during the mid-1990s. Pollen data indicate that milfoil, which often becomes more common with elevated nutrients, became more widespread after 1920. The pollen data also indicate that wild rice was present in the eastern end of Musky Bay during the late 1800s and the early 1900s but disappeared after about 1920, probably because of water-level changes more so than eutrophication.

Wisconsin

Effects of land use and travel time on the distribution of nitrate in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in southern New Jersey

Residents of the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain are increasingly reliant on the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system for public water supply as a result of increasing population and restrictions on withdrawals from the deeper, confined aquifers. Elevated nitrate concentrations above background levels have been found in wells in the surficial aquifer system in agricultural and urban parts of this area. A three-dimensional steady-state ground-water-flow model of a 400-square-mile study area near Glassboro, New Jersey, was used in conjunction with particle tracking to examine the effects of land use and travel time on the distribution of nitrate in ground and surface water in southern New Jersey. Contributing areas and ground-water ages, or travel times, of water at ground-water discharge points (streams and wells) in the study area were simulated. Concentrations of nitrate were computed by linking land use and age-dependent nitrate concentrations in recharge to the discharge points. Median concentrations of nitrate in water samples collected during 1996 from shallow monitoring wells in different land-use areas were used to represent the concentration of nitrate in aquifer recharge since 1990. On the basis of upward trends in the use of nitrogen fertilizer, the concentrations of nitrate in aquifer recharge in agricultural and urban areas were assumed to have increased linearly from the background value in 1940 (0.07 mg/L as N) to the 1990 (2.5-14 mg/L as N) concentrations. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the simulation results to measured nitrate concentrations and apparent ground-water ages. Apparent ground-water ages at 32 monitoring wells in the study area determined from tritium/helium-3 ratios and sulfur hexafluoride concentrations favorably matched simulated travel times to these wells. Simulated nitrate concentrations were comparable to concentrations measured in 27 water-supply wells in the study area. A time series (1987-98) of nitrate concentrations at base-flow conditions in three streams that drain basins of various sizes and with various land uses was compared to simulated concentrations in these streams. In all three of the streams, a reasonable fit to the measured concentrations was achieved by multiplying the simulated concentration by 0.6. Because nitrate appeared to move conservatively (not degraded or adsorbed) in ground water to wells, the apparent non-conservative behavior in streams indicates that about 40 percent of the nitrate in aquifer recharge is removed by denitrification in the aquifer near the streams and (or) by in-stream processes. The model was used to evaluate the effects of various nitrate management options on the concentration of nitrate in streams and water-supply wells. Nitrate concentrations were simulated under the following management alternatives: an immediate ban on nitrate input, reduction of input at a constant rate, and fixed input at the current (2000) level. The time required for water to move through the aquifer results in a time lag between the reduction of nitrate input in recharge and the reduction of nitrate concentration in streams and wells. In the gradual-reduction alternative, nitrate concentrations in streams and wells continued to increase for several years after the reduction was enacted. In both the immediate-ban and gradual-reduction alternatives, nitrate concentrations remained elevated above background concentrations long after nitrate input ceased. In the fixed-use alternative, concentrations in streams and wells continued to increase for 30 to 40 years before reaching a constant level. The spatial distributions of simulated nitrate concentrations in streams in 2000 and 2050 were examined with the assumption of no change in land use, nitrate concentration in recharge, or ground-water withdrawals. As expected, nitrate concentrations were highest in agricultural areas and lowest in largely undeveloped areas.

New Jersey

Monthly and annual water budgets of Lake Wingra, Madison, Wisconsin, 1972-77

This report presents estimated annual and monthly water budgets for Lake Wingra and the adjacent wetland area for January 1972 through September 1972. Annually, inputs from precipitation, surface runoff, and groundwater inflow are approximately equal (31, 34, and 35 percent, respectively). Outputs include outflow from the lake into Murphy Creek (70 percent), evapotranspiration from the lake and wetland (26 percent), and ground-water outflow (4 percent). The inputs and outputs vary seasonally. In months when snowmelt occurs, surface runoff is a major input (56 percent in March; 46 percent in April). In fall and winter ground-water inflow is a major input (57 percent in November). Precipitation comprises 41 percent of the input in August but only 18 percent in January. Lake outflow is the major output except from July through September. Combined evaporation and evapotranspiration is a major output in summer (45 to 58 percent) but minor in winter (less than 13 percent). Ground-water outflow is a small part of the budget each month, ranging from 2 percent in March and April to a maximum of 7 percent in September. The water budget is based on field data collected from January 1972 through June 1973, and on fragmentary data and estimates for July 1973 through September 1977. The budget terms differ from those published by Oakes, Hendrickson, and Zuehls (1975, table 10) because springflow has been included in total ground-water inflow and estimated on a monthly basis in this report. Previously only annual estimates were provided.

Wisconsin