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Evolutionary divergence of giant tortoises in Galapagos

The giant tortoises in the Galapagos Archipelago diverge considerably in size, and in shape and other carapace characteristics. The saddleback morphotype is known only from insular faunas lacking large terrestrial predators (i.e. Galapagos and Mauritius) and in Galapagos is associated with xeric habitats where vertical feeding range and vertical reach in agonistic encounters are adaptive. The large domed morphotype is associated with relatively cool, mesic habitats where intraspecific competition for food and other resources may be less intense than in xeric habitats. Other external characteristics that differ between tortoise populations are also correlated with ecological variation. Tortoises have radiated into a mosaic of ecological conditions in the Galapagos but critical data are lacking on the role of genetic and environmental controls on phenotypic variation. Morphological divergence in tortoises is potentially a better indicator of present ecological conditions than of evolutionary relationships.

Galapagos Islands

A reservoir landscape for age-0 largemouth bass

Landscape ecology is concerned with how ecological processes are affected by spatial patterns. Identification of heterogeneity in littoral zones has expanded the conceptual framework of aquatic landscapes. Long-term study of a reservoir largemouth bass population indicated that the amount and arrangement of habitat regulated the population processes. The distribution of age-0 largemouth bass was quantified in relation to littoral habitat and relations between landscape features and population parameters on scales from embayment to microhabitat were determined. At the embayment scale, shoreline slope and amount of gravel substratum predicted fivefold variability in abundance among four reservoir embayments. Within an embayment, these habitat features explained between 37 and 88 percent of variation in shoreline distribution of age-0 largemouth bass. At the microhabitat scale, age-0 largemouth bass exhibited patchy distributions in relation to gravel substratum at 40 percent of sites. These results indicate that the landscape scale domain for young largemouth bass is large; whereas, specific patterns explained processes across multiple scales. Distributions of age-0 largemouth bass in relation to habitat, however, were apparent on a fine scale (10 m) and these data, coupled with limited movement behavior of young largemouth bass, indicate that the ecological neighborhood of this life stage is small. Our data also suggested that some habitats may be source habitats because embayments with hypothesized higher source/sink ratios were more productive. Although patch arrangement critical to young largemouth bass ecology was not quantified, it was apparent that embayments with more complex habitats likely provided the extent of the landscape for age-0 largemouth bass in Jordan Lake. Identification of scale of patchiness (of fish distributions and habitats) for this life stage will assist in making inferences regarding complex ecological processes that can affect year-class productivity on multiple scales. ?? 2002 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium

Estimating temporary emigration using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

Statistical inference for capture–recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration: completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly–Seber estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach to robust design data. Capture–recapture data arising from Pollock’s robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration. Two of these should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small-mammal capture–recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Ecology

Studies to assess natural resource recovery and evaluate monitoring methods for restored bottomland hardwood forests

The Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration process assesses natural resource injury due to oil or chemical spills and calculates the damages to compensate the public for those injuries. Ecological restoration provides a means for recovering resources injured or lost due to contamination from oil or chemical spills by restoring the injured site after remediation, or acquiring or reconstructing equivalent resources off site to replace those lost due to the spill. In the case of restored forests, once restoration is implemented, monitoring of forest ecology helps keep recovery on track, with the maturation of forest vegetation, recovered soil conditions, and development of microbial, fungal, and faunal communities, necessary for ecologically functioning forests. This series of papers focuses on applying methods for monitoring restoration progress in forest vegetation and soils, and amphibian, avian, and mammalian communities, assessing strengths and weaknesses of different methods, and evaluating levels of effort needed to obtain accurate indications of forest ecological condition.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Application of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Missouri Streams

Natural flow regime concepts and theories have established the justification for maintaining or restoring the range of natural hydrologic variability so that physiochemical processes, native biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian assemblages can be sustained. A synthesis of recent research advances in hydroecology, coupled with stream classification using hydroecologically relevant indices, has produced the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP). HIP consists of (1) a regional classification of streams into hydrologic stream types based on flow data from long-term gaging-station records for relatively unmodified streams, (2) an identification of stream-type specific indices that address 11 subcomponents of the flow regime, (3) an ability to establish environmental flow standards, (4) an evaluation of hydrologic alteration, and (5) a capacity to conduct alternative analyses. The process starts with the identification of a hydrologic baseline (reference condition) for selected locations, uses flow data from a stream-gage network, and proceeds to classify streams into hydrologic stream types. Concurrently, the analysis identifies a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 11 subcomponents of flow for each stream type. Furthermore, regional hydrologic models for synthesizing flow conditions across a region and the development of flow-ecology response relations for each stream type can be added to further enhance the process. The application of HIP to Missouri streams identified five stream types ((1) intermittent, (2) perennial runoff-flashy, (3) perennial runoff-moderate baseflow, (4) perennial groundwater-stable, and (5) perennial groundwater-super stable). Two Missouri-specific computer software programs were developed: (1) a Missouri Hydrologic Assessment Tool (MOHAT) which is used to establish a hydrologic baseline, provide options for setting environmental flow standards, and compare past and proposed hydrologic alterations; and (2) a Missouri Stream Classification Tool (MOSCT) designed for placing previously unclassified streams into one of the five pre-defined stream types.

Open-File Report

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

Open-File Report

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other contaminants of concern in tribal waters of Montana

We assessed potential exposures to a broad suite of contaminants (inorganic, organic and microbial) in culturally important surface waters from three watersheds in a northern plains Native American community (Apsáalooke [Crow Tribe of Montana]) in south-central Montana, United States, with water insecurity concerns. Inorganic (37), organic (435) and microbial (3) constituents were assessed in 12 surface water sites from the Pryor Creek ( n = 2), Bighorn River ( n = 2) and Little Bighorn River ( n = 8) valleys. Twenty-six organics, 33 inorganics and Escherichia coli were detected. Despite relatively low concentrations in surface waters within the Crow Reservation, mixture toxicity indicated prevalent chronic ecological effects and human-health secondary contact (recreation) effects at multiple sites. Further, to address Tribal concerns over the prevalence and corresponding risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), we sampled water, sediment, biofilms and fish at a limited number of locations in the Little Bighorn River. Results indicated that PFAS were prevalent in fish tissues, including whole blood and filets, and to a lesser extent in biofilms, despite few detections in water and sediment samples. This is the first attempt to document environmental PFAS contamination within the reservation and the potential human-health concerns for the general population from consumption of recreational/subsistence fish. Overall, this effort provided preliminary information on the contaminant mixtures present and their potential health implications, which can support the protection of community health and culturally meaningful resources across the Crow Reservation.

Montana

Mississippi’s resiliency and changing environmental conditions

Mississippi is experiencing shifts in environmental conditions, many of which are expected to intensify in the coming decades, and will have important implications for ecosystems, species, and natural resource management across the state. Historical climate analyses and downscaled projections summarized for the state’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level III Ecoregions show that Mississippi will likely face increases in extremely hot days, more intense heatwaves, greater evapotranspiration, and reductions in cold-season extremes. Temperature trends indicate that while Mississippi has warmed relatively little over the last century, recent years have been among the warmest on record. Projections suggest substantial increases in the number of days with maximum temperatures at or above 95°F across all Ecoregions, particularly under higher warming scenarios. Correspondingly, the number of freezing nights is expected to decline, with statewide decreases of 7–21 days depending on the global warming level and timeframe. These combined patterns are likely to reshape habitat conditions, influence species’ thermal stress, and alter ecological processes such as soil moisture retention and stream temperature regimes. Mississippi’s hydrological systems are also expected to be significantly affected. Extreme rainfall events, particularly the most intense 1% of precipitation days, are projected to increase across the state, raising risks of flooding, erosion, and altered stream flow. Coastal Mississippi faces additional stress from sea‑level rise, which is already contributing to more frequent high‑tide flooding; projections show continued increases in inundation risk throughout the century. These flooding patterns, combined with stronger hurricane rainfall rates and the potential for landfalling storms to stall, pose ongoing threats to coastal ecosystems and communities. The state is also vulnerable to extreme weather hazards such as tornadoes. Recent research shows a geographic shift in tornado activity toward the Southeast, with Mississippi experiencing some of the nation’s greatest increases in favorable tornado days and nighttime tornado frequency—hazards that have direct implications for wildlife, habitat stability, and human safety. Drought conditions may intensify as well: higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration during dry spells could worsen water stress regardless of uncertainty in average annual precipitation. These changing environmental conditions have important consequences for Mississippi’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). Vulnerability assessments and ecological niche models indicate that several fish, mussel, crayfish, plant, amphibian, bird, and mammal species may face heightened stress due to warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, habitat loss, and increases in extreme events. For example, many cold‑water and moisture‑dependent species in the state’s rivers and wetlands are already near their thermal limits, and further warming could reduce suitable habitat. Birds breeding in bottomland hardwood forests, such as the Prothonotary Warbler, are increasingly susceptible to nest loss from flooding. Similarly, species like the Louisiana Black Bear may encounter higher risks from habitat inundation and shifting food availability. The “A Closer Look” section underscores the vulnerability of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain—one of the state’s most ecologically rich yet heavily altered Ecoregions. Its bottomland hardwood forests, wetlands, and floodplain habitats support diverse wildlife but are increasingly threatened by rising temperatures, hydrological changes, development pressures, and compounded disturbances. These habitats provide critical ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood attenuation, and biodiversity support, making their conservation particularly urgent under future conditions. Collectively, these findings indicate that Mississippi’s ongoing and projected environmental changes present both challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. Incorporating adaptation strategies into the State Wildlife Action Plan will be essential for sustaining habitats, mitigating risks, and supporting the long‑term resilience of Mississippi’s wildlife and ecosystems.

Mississippi

Effects of stormwater runoff from selected bridge decks on conditions of water, sediment, and biological quality in receiving waters in South Carolina, 2013 to 2018

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation, investigated the effects of stormwater runoff from bridge decks on stream water quality conditions in South Carolina. The investigation assessed 5 bridges in 3 physiographic provinces in South Carolina (Piedmont, Upper Coastal Plain, and Lower Coast Plain) that had a range of bridge, traffic, and hydrologic characteristics. The five selected South Carolina bridge sites (coincident with U.S. Geological Survey stations) and corresponding highways were Lynches River at Effingham (station 02132000; U.S. Highway 52), North Fork Edisto River at Orangeburg (station 02173500; U.S. Highway 301), Turkey Creek above Huger (station 02172035; South Carolina Highway 41), South Fork Edisto River near Denmark (station 02173000; U.S. Highway 321), and Fishing Creek at Highway 5 below York (station 021473415; South Carolina Highway 5). Bridge decks at the selected sites used open chutes, scuppers, and downspouts to drain stormwater directly into the receiving water at evenly spaced intervals. Stream water, sediment, and biological samples were collected and analyzed for a variety of constituents to evaluate the stream conditions for this study. Five to six stream samples were collected at transects upstream and downstream from each selected bridge site using the equal-width-increment technique during observable stormwater runoff. Routine samples of the receiving waters were collected 12 to 14 times at the upstream transect during nonstorm conditions. Samples were analyzed for physical properties, suspended sediment, nutrients, major ions, trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and Escherichia coli . Bridge-deck sediment and streambed sediment at upstream and downstream transects were collected once at each bridge site and analyzed for metals and semivolatile organic compounds that include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Benthic macroinvertebrate community surveys were conducted once using Hester-Dendy multiplate artificial substrate samplers deployed at multiple upstream and downstream transects concurrently. Statistical analysis of the water-quality data determined that stormwater runoff from bridges did not significantly degrade physical properties, nor nutrient, trace-metal, Escherichia coli , and suspended-sediment concentrations at the selected sites beyond the variability at the upstream transect (no bridge influence) during the study period. During storm sampling at the bridge sites, water-quality conditions were statistically similar upstream and downstream from each bridge, except for greater turbidity, total nitrogen, and total organic nitrogen plus ammonia concentrations found downstream from the bridge site on Fishing Creek; higher total chromium concentrations detected downstream from the bridge site on Turkey Creek; and increased Escherichia coli concentrations found downstream from the bridge site on the North Fork Edisto River. Total recoverable lead, cadmium, and copper concentrations were the only trace metals that periodically exceeded the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control freshwater aquatic-life criteria at some bridge sites (lead, copper, and cadmium in Turkey Creek; cadmium and lead in Fishing Creek; lead in the South Fork Edisto River and Lynches River), but the exceedances occurred more frequently during routine sampling upstream from the bridge sites than during storm sampling at upstream and downstream transects. In general, stormwater runoff from the bridge decks did not seem to be the major source of metal enrichment in receiving waters during the study period. North Fork and South Fork Edisto Rivers and Turkey Creek had only one storm sample that exceeded South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control recreational criterion for Escherichia coli at both the upstream and downstream locations, while Fishing Creek had more frequent exceedances. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were detected infrequently in the stream samples. In general, sediment trace-metal concentrations were below the threshold and probable effect concentration at all bridge sites, except for the chromium concentration (45.1 milligrams per kilogram) detected upstream from the bridge site on Fishing Creek that exceeded the threshold effect concentration of 43.4 milligrams per kilogram. Based on enrichment ratios less than 1.5, bridge-deck runoff did not seem to be affecting trace-metal accumulation in the streambed sediment downstream from the bridge sites, except for lead at the bridge site on the Lynches River and manganese at the bridge site on Fishing Creek. Individual polycyclic aromatic compound concentrations and the sum of 18 compounds did not exceed any threshold and probable effect concentrations, indicating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the streambed sediment at downstream and upstream transects were not likely to affect the health of benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Although the cumulative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in downstream sediment at the sites on Turkey and Fishing Creeks were well below the threshold effect concentration of 1,610 micrograms per kilogram, the 3- to 100-fold increase in downstream concentrations indicated a strong probability of a bridge-deck runoff source. Overall, benthic macroinvertebrate community health downstream from the bridge sites did not seem to be affected by bridge-deck runoff based on several multivariate analyses that indicated statistically similar benthic macroinvertebrate communities at upstream and downstream transects. Of the five bridge sites in this study, the site on Turkey Creek seemed to have the least healthy benthic macroinvertebrate communities because of the lowest Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera spp. (mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies, respectively) taxa, species richness, and diversity; and the highest biotic indices, indicative of poorer ecological health, at upstream and downstream transects. This ecological finding was not unexpected because of seasonal periods of negligible flow when dissolved-oxygen concentrations fell below 4 milligrams per liter during the study period. Of the five bridge sites in this study, the site on the South Fork Edisto River seemed to have healthier benthic macroinvertebrate communities because of the greater mean Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera spp. taxa; and lower mean biotic indices at upstream and downstream transects.

Scientific Investigations Report

Compact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?

Purpose of Review Global urban land area is growing faster than the urban population, raising concerns that sprawling, low-density development will reduce biodiversity and human wellbeing. The sparing-sharing framework, adapted from agroecology, provides one approach to assessing alternative urban growth patterns. It compares ecological outcomes in landscapes matched for total population and land area, but differing in configuration: land sparing (partitioned between densely urbanized and undeveloped areas) or land sharing (low-density development throughout). We reviewed the urban sparing-sharing literature since 2010 and recovered 15 studies conducted in 22 cities on four continents. Recent Findings Collectively, studies assessed effects of alternative development patterns on 296 species, 21 community metrics (such as species richness), and 26 indicators of ecosystem services or processes (such as carbon sequestration). Sparing was the best option for 51% of individual species; 43% of community metrics; and 27% of ecosystem service indicators. Summary Existing ecological research does not clearly favor one pattern or the other, and new approaches are needed to facilitate decision making and ecological insight. Specifically, future work could (1) explicitly evaluate optimized urban development patterns across multiple competing priorities (such as providing housing, delivering ecosystem services, and protecting priority species), (2) tackle issues of spatial scale and connectivity that are often ambiguous in sparing-sharing research, and (3) improve geographical representation. These advances can be made while preserving the key insight of the framework–that choices between alternative landscape configurations are only meaningful when those landscapes are matched for total area and the level of human needs met.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports

Ecological and social drivers of Mexican wolf home range size across spatiotemporal scales

Elucidating factors influencing home range size is fundamental to the ecology and management of wildlife species, particularly those of conservation concern, because they can provide insight into how species utilize and interact with their environment. Variation in home range size can be related to intraspecific competition and social organization, energetic requirements in relation to habitat productivity, allometric relationships, and population density. The Mexican Gray Wolf ( Canis lupus baileyi ) is an endangered subspecies of the Gray Wolf whose home range size has not yet been studied. We examined ecological and social drivers of home range size of 22 Mexican Wolf packs between 2017 and 2021 across 4 biological time frames: annual; denning; post-denning; and non-denning. We used a 95% Brownian Bridge Movement Model home range estimator and generalized linear mixed-effect models to assess these relationships. Home range size was inversely correlated with estimated ungulate biomass, which was the most influential driver of home range size at annual and post-denning time frames. Larger packs utilized larger ranges during denning and post-denning time frames, while packs with larger litters had smaller ranges during the denning season. Snow depth was inversely related to home range size during the non-denning season. Our results indicate that both ecological and social factors are important and seasonally dependent in driving Mexican Wolf home range size. Use of a multiscale approach in future home range studies could discern relevant factors for species during time frames of interest.

Journal of Mammology

Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plant-soil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools

Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. Here, we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant – soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the effects of woody plant encroachment are often influenced by rainfall and plant traits. Abiotic conditions at our study locations differed, particularly in terms of physicochemical properties related to precipitation. Marsh species composition, marsh above-ground biomass, and mangrove forest structural complexity also varied across these locations. Marshes in the driest location (Central Texas) had higher salinities and were dominated by low biomass succulent plants and lower soil carbon pools. Marshes in the wetter, less saline locations (Louisiana and North Florida) contained high biomass grasses and higher soil carbon pools. At all locations, above-ground biomass and above-ground carbon pools were higher in mangroves than marshes; however, below-ground soil carbon pools were only higher in mangroves than marshes in the driest location. In the wetter locations, the linkages between mangrove forest structure and soil properties were minimal or not significant. However, in the driest location, there was a significant increase in soil properties related to peat development and carbon storage with increased mangrove forest structural development. Synthesis : Our results indicate that the ecological implications of woody plant encroachment in tidal saline wetlands are dependent upon precipitation controls of plant – soil interactions. Although the above-ground effects of mangrove expansion are consistently large, below-ground influences of mangrove expansion appear to be greatest along low-rainfall coasts where salinities are high and marshes being replaced are carbon poor and dominated by succulent plants. Collectively, these findings complement those from terrestrial ecosystems and reinforce the importance of considering rainfall and plant – soil interactions within predictions of the ecological effects of woody plant encroachment.

Florida, Louisiana, Texas

The effects of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in large landscape bioassessments: An example from the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, U.S.A.

1. During late spring 1993-1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 490 wadeable streams in the mid-Atlantic Highlands (MAH) of the U.S. for a variety of physical, chemical and biological indicators of environmental condition. We used the resulting data set to evaluate the importance of differing levels of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in bioassessments by comparing the ability of family versus genus to detect differences among sites classified by type and magnitude of human impact and by stream size. We divided the MAH into two physiographic regions: the Appalachian Plateau where mine drainage (MD) and acidic deposition are major stressors, and the Ridge and Valley where nutrient enrichment is a major stressor. Stream sites were classified into three or four impact classes based on water chemistry and habitat. We used stream order (first to third Strahler order) in each region as a measure of stream size. Ordination, 2 x 2 chi-square and biotic metrics were used to compare the ability of family and genus to detect differences among both stressor and size classes. 2. With one notable exception, there were only a small number of different genera per family (interquartile range = 1-4). Family Chironomidae, however, contained 123 different genera. As a result, significant information loss occurred when this group was only classified to family. The family Chironomidae did not discriminate among the predefined classes but many chironomid genera did: by chi-square analysis, 10 and 28 chironomid genera were significant in discriminating MD and nutrient impacts, respectively. 3. Family and genus data were similar in their ability to distinguish among the coarse impacts (e.g. most severe versus least severe impact classes) for all cases. Though genus data in many cases distinguished the subtler differences (e.g. mixed/moderate impacts versus high or low impacts) better than family, differences in significance levels between family and genus analyses were relatively minor. However, genus data detected differences among stream orders in ordination analyses that were not revealed at the family level. In the ordinations, both family and genus levels of analysis responded to similar suites of environmental variables. 4. Our results suggest that identification to the family level is sufficient for many bioassessment purposes. However, identifications to genus do provide more information in genera-rich families like Chironomidae. Genus or finer levels of identification are important for investigating natural history, stream ecology, biodiversity and indicator species. Decisions about the taxonomic level of identification need to be study specific and depend on available resources (cost) and study objectives.

Freshwater Biology

Long-term streamflow trends in Hawai‘i and implications for native stream fauna

Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.

Hawaii

Late Pliocene climate change 3.4-2.3 Ma: paleoceanographic record from the Yabuta Formation, Sea of Japan

Late Pliocene paleoceanographic changes in the Sea of Japan between 3.4 and2.3 Ma were investigated through study of molluscs, diatoms, and ostracodes from the Yabuta Formation in Toyama Prefecture. The period 3.4-2.7 Ma was characterized by relatively high sea level and cool water benthic faunas. A progressive paleoceanographic shift towards colder oceanic conditions and lower sea level occurred beginning near 2.7 Ma, intensifying about 2.5 Ma, when important changes in ostracode and molluscan faunas occurred. Between 2.7 and 2.3 Ma, eight glacial events can be inferred based on drops in sea level of 50-60 m and increasing proportions of cold, shallow water ostracode species whose modern ecology and zoogeography indicate colder winter water temperatures (3-4??C). The glacial events between 2.5 and 2.3 Ma were the most intense. Preliminary interpretation of the faunal and oceanographic events of the Yabuta Formation suggests that they correspond to Northern Hemispheric cooling also known from North Atlantic deep-sea oxygen isotope, IRD, and planktic foraminiferal records, North Pacific diatom and radiolarian record, and the Chinese loess sequences. The eight glacial events may record a 41,000-yr obliquity cycle which characterized other late Pliocene climate proxy records. Inferred sea level drops near 2.5-2.3 Ma of about 50-60 m provide direct evidence from an ocean margin setting that supports deep sea oxygen isotopic evidence indicating major changes in global ice volume changes.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

Ecological monitoring for assessing the state of the nearshore and open waters of the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement stipulates that the Governments of Canada and the United States are responsible for restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem. Due to varying mandates and areas of expertise, monitoring to assess progress towards this objective is conducted by a multitude of Canadian and U.S. federal and provincial/state agencies, in cooperation with academia and regional authorities. This paper highlights selected long-term monitoring programs and discusses a number of documented ecological changes that indicate the present state of the open and nearshore waters of the Great Lakes.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum . We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

Using regional scale flow–ecology modeling to identify catchments where fish assemblages are most vulnerable to changes in water availability

Streamflow is essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Changes in climate, land use and water use practices may alter water availability. Understanding the potential effect of these changes on aquatic ecosystems is critical for long-term water management to maintain a balance between water for human consumption and ecosystem needs. Fish species data and streamflow estimates from a rainfall-runoff and flow routing model were used to develop boosted regression tree models to predict the relationship between streamflow and fish species richness (FSR) under plausible scenarios of (1) water withdrawal, (2) climate change and (3) increases in impervious surfaces in the Piedmont ecoregion of North Carolina, U.S.A. Maximum monthly flow, the fraction of total flow originating from impervious surface runoff, coefficient of monthly streamflow variability, and the specific river basin accounted for 50% of the variability in FSR. This model was used to predict FSR values for all twelve-digit Hydrological Unit Code catchments (HUC-12s) in the North Carolina Piedmont under current flow conditions and under water withdrawal, climate change and impervious surface scenarios. Flow–ecology modeling results indicate that predicted FSR declined significantly with increased water withdrawals. However, the magnitude of decline varied geographically. A “hot-spot” analysis was conducted based on predicted changes in FSR under each scenario to understand which HUC-12s were most likely to be affected by changes in water withdrawals, climate and impervious surfaces. Under the 20% withdrawal increase scenario, 413 of 886 (47%) HUC-12s in the study area were predicted to lose one or more species. HUC-12s in the Broad, Catawba, Yadkin and Cape Fear river basins were most susceptible to species loss. These findings may help decision making efforts by identifying catchments most vulnerable to changing water availability. Additionally, FSR-discharge modeling results can assist resource agencies, water managers and stakeholders in assessing the effect of water withdrawals in catchments to better support the protection and long-term conservation of species.

North Carolina