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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2025

From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [ Sibbaldia tridentata ] and black crowberry [ Empetrum nigrum ]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival are reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander ( Ambystoma jeffersonianum ) and grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ). Our work demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to new management insights.

Northeast United States↗
USGS2021

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2020 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where precipitation is generally low and highly variable. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts that build upon insight gained from earlier investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities that supported CPNPP in FY20 followed the FY20 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Department of Interior Secretarial Order #3347 ( Conservation Stewardship and Outdoor Recreation ), and Bureau of Land Management Leadership Priority #1 ( Create a conservation stewardship legacy second only to Teddy Roosevelt ). Research activities in FY20 centered on landscape genomics, implementing a common garden experiment near Vernal, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and collecting seeds and leaf tissues in the field in preparation for future experiments. These activities were supported by five biological science technicians. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic delayed some aspects of the FY20 workplan, especially for contract laboratory services and the construction of the GRID garden in Flagstaff, AZ. However, goals were largely met, and the overall progress of research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY20, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, Matt Jones, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each goal are discussed in turn.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2018

Remaining populations of an upland stream fish persist in refugia defined by habitat features at multiple scales

Aim Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter ( Etheostoma osburni ), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment- and/or segment-scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni 's southern range. Catchment-scale features primarily constrained land use and finer-scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population-supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location , suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species’ distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale-specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking.

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2020

Informing amphibian conservation efforts with abundance-based metapopulation models

Science-based management strategies are needed to halt or reverse the global decline of amphibians. In many cases, sound management requires reliable models built using monitoring data. Historically, monitoring and statistical modeling efforts have focused on estimating occupancy using detection–nondetection data. Spatial occupancy models are useful for studying colonization–extinction dynamics, but richer insights can be gained from estimating abundance and density-dependent demographic rates. We developed an integrated abundance-based metapopulation model of the processes contributing to spatiotemporal variation in patch population density. We fit our model to a combination of detection–nondetection and count data from a 14-yr study of a reintroduced metapopulation of federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). Pond-specific population growth rate was influenced by pond hydroperiod and frog density, such that permanent and semipermanent ponds with low densities of adult frogs experienced the highest annual population growth rates. Immigration rate declined as the distance among ponds increased. After reintroduction in 2003, metapopulation-level abundance increased and appeared to stabilize around 1300 adult frogs (95% CI = 1192–1471) by year 2015. Further, changes in metapopulation abundance were driven mostly by changes in abundance at a few ponds. These high-density populations, which would not have been identifiable with traditional occupancy-based metapopulation models, are likely especially important for species recovery in the area. Abundance-based metapopulation models can be widely applied to inform conservation efforts, by providing higher quality information needed to prioritize habitat patches for management and can be used to make more accurate predictions of metapopulation extinction risk.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2022

Spatial and temporal distribution and habitat selection of native Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout and nonnative Utah Chub

Henrys Lake, Idaho, is a renowned trophy trout fishery that faces an uncertain future following the establishment of Utah Chub (UTC) Gila atraria . Utah Chub were first documented in the lake in 1993 and have become abundant over the past two decades. Little is known about the ecology of UTC, but they typically have negative effects on salmonids in systems where they have been introduced. We sought to fill knowledge gaps in UTC ecology and provide insight on potential interactions with Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout (YCT) Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri . Ninety-four YCT and 95 UTC were radio-tagged in spring 2019 and 2020 to better understand potential interactions between YCT and UTC in Henrys Lake. Fish were located via mobile tracking and fixed receivers from June to December 2019 and 2020. In June of both years, YCT and UTC were concentrated in nearshore habitats. As water temperatures increased, UTC were documented in deeper water (mean ± SD = 3.6 ± 1.4 m) and YCT became more concentrated in areas with cold water (e.g., mouths of tributaries, in-lake springs). In July and August, large congregations of UTC were observed. Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout were detected in tributaries from June to August, but no UTC were detected in the tributaries. By late fall (November–December), YCT were located along the shoreline and UTC were detected in the middle of the lake. Both YCT and UTC were observed in areas with dense vegetation. Macrophytes likely provided a food source for UTC and cover from predators for both species. Locations of YCT were negatively related to warm water temperatures, whereas UTC were positively associated with warm water temperatures. Results from this research fill knowledge gaps in UTC and YCT interactions as well as provide valuable insight on the ecology of UTC and adfluvial Cutthroat Trout populations. Furthermore, distribution patterns and habitat selectivity of YCT and UTC in Henrys Lake can be used to inform management decisions for fishery improvement and YCT conservation.

Idaho↗
USGS2019

Individual based modelling of fish migration in a 2-D river system: Model description and case study

Context: Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. These stressors complicate the prioritization of proposed management actions intended to improve conditions for migratory fishes including anadromous salmon and trout. Objectives: We describe a multi-scale hybrid mechanistic–probabilistic simulation model linking migration corridor conditions to fish fitness outcomes. We demonstrate the model’s utility using a case study of salmon and steelhead adults in the Columbia River migration corridor exposed to spatially- and temporally-varying stressors. Methods: The migration corridor simulation model is based on a behavioral decision tree that governs individual interactions with the environment, and an energetic submodel that estimates the hourly costs of migration. Emergent properties of the migration corridor simulation model include passage time, energy use, and survival. Results: We observed that the simulated fish’s initial energy density, the migration corridor temperatures they experienced, and their history of behavioral thermoregulation were the primary determinants of their fitness outcomes. Insights gained from use of the model might be exploited to identify management interventions that increase successful migration outcomes. Conclusions: This paper describes new methods that extend the suite of tools available to aquatic biologists and conservation practitioners. We have developed a 2-dimensional spatially-explicit behavioral and physiological model and illustrated how it can be used to simulate fish migration within a river system. Our model can be used to evaluate trade-offs between behavioral thermoregulation and fish fitness at population scales.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2004

Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

Increasing numbers of regional, multiple species conservation plans have been developed in California since the early 1990s. However, building effective monitoring and adaptive management programs to support these plans has remained a challenge. In addition to collecting data on the status of resources and the results of management actions, monitoring programs for these plans need to resolve critical uncertainties and channel information into effective decisionmaking. Because of the broad goals of many regional conservation plans, monitoring programs need to address ecosystem integrity and biodiversity while also tracking species ?covered? by plan permits. In this document we provide a step-by-step procedure for developing effective monitoring programs in an adaptive management context. The guidance provided here has been gleaned from experience with large multiple species plans in southern California. The process begins with clearly defining program objectives, partitioning the program into manageable but meaningful pieces, and developing management-oriented conceptual models of system function. Then, based on the objectives and conceptual models, monitoring recommendations and critical uncertainties can be identified and a coordinated program designed. We include practical examples and insights from programs in southern California and discuss the evolution of monitoring and adaptive management programs through three successive stages: 1) inventorying resources and identifying relationships; 2) pilot testing of long-term monitoring and resolving critical management uncertainties; and 3) implementing long-term monitoring and adaptive management. Ultimately, the success of regional conservation planning depends on the ability of monitoring programs to confront the challenges of adaptively managing and monitoring complex ecosystems and diverse arrays of sensitive species.

Technical Report↗
USGS2014

Controls of vegetation structure and net primary production in restored grasslands

1. Vegetation structure and net primary production (NPP) are fundamental properties of ecosystems. Understanding how restoration practices following disturbance interact with environmental factors to control these properties can provide insight on how ecosystems recover and guide management efforts. 2. We assessed the relative contribution of environmental and restoration factors in controlling vegetation structure, above- and below-ground investment in production across a chronosequence of semiarid Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields recovering from dryland wheat cropping relative to undisturbed grassland. Importantly, we determined the role of plant diversity and how seeding either native or introduced perennial grasses influenced the recovery of vegetation properties. 3. Plant basal cover increased with field age and was highest in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses. In contrast, fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses had tall-growing plants with relatively low basal cover. These vegetation structural characteristics interacted with precipitation, but not soil characteristics, to influence above-ground NPP (ANPP). Fields enrolled in the CRP program for >7 years supported twice as much ANPP as undisturbed shortgrass steppe in the first wet year of the study, but all CRP fields converged on a common low amount of ANPP in the following dry year and invested less than half as much as the shortgrass steppe in below-ground biomass. 4. ANPP in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses for more than 7 years was positively related to species richness, whereas ANPP in CRP fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses were controlled more by dominant species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Seeding with introduced, instead of native, perennial grasses had a strong direct influence on vegetation structure, including species richness, which indirectly affected NPP through time. However, the effects of restoring either native or introduced grasses on NPP were secondary to low water availability. Therefore, restoration strategies that maximize basal cover and below-ground biomass, which promote water acquisition, may lead to high resilience in semiarid and arid regions.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Methylmercury stable isotopes: New insights on assessing aquatic food web bioaccumulation in legacy impacted regions

Through stable isotope measurements of total mercury (HgT), identification of crucial processes and transformations affecting different sources of mercury (Hg) has become possible. However, attempting to use HgT stable isotopes to track bioaccumulation of Hg sources among different food web compartments can be challenging, if not impossible, when tissues have varying methylmercury (MeHg) contents. We measured HgT and MeHg stable isotope ratios within the lower Fox River to examine how these values differed across the food web and if isotope values in biota were influenced by legacy contamination. We showed that seston, invertebrates, and fish had a large range of δ 202 HgT (−0.74 to 0.15 ‰, n = 11) due to varying MeHg contents in tissues but a commonly conserved MeHg isotope value (δ 202 MeHg ave = 0.01 ± 0.12 ‰, 1 standard deviation, n = 11). We also examined some mathematical approaches to estimate the MeHg isotope values, which were mostly comparable to measured MeHg isotope values in the Fox River, with some exceptions. In this study, we observed that the MeHg isotope values can elucidate links between different food web compartments and provide insight on aquatic Hg cycling that can be masked by the sole use of HgT isotopes in contaminated sites.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Spatial grain of adaptation is much finer than ecoregional-scale common gardens reveal

Adaptive variation among plant populations must be known for effective conservation and restoration of imperiled species and predicting their responses to a changing climate. Common‐garden experiments, in which plants sourced from geographically distant populations are grown together such that genetic differences may be expressed, have provided much insight on adaptive variation. Common‐garden experiments also form the foundation for climate‐based seed‐transfer guidelines. However, the spatial scale at which population differentiation occurs is rarely addressed, leaving a critical information gap for parameterizing seed‐transfer guidelines and assessing species’ climate vulnerability. We asked whether adaptation was evident among populations of a foundational perennial within a single “empirical” seed‐transfer zone (based on previous common‐garden findings evaluating very distant populations) but different “provisional” seed zones (groupings of areas of similar climate and are not parameterized from common‐garden data). Seedlings from three populations originating from similar conditions within an intermediate elevation were planted into gardens nearby at the same elevation, or 250–450 m higher or lower in elevation and 0.4–25 km away. Substantial variation was observed between gardens in survival (ranging 2%–99%), foliar crown volume (7.8–22.6 dm 3 ), and reproductive effort (0%–65%), but not among the three transplanted populations. The between garden variation was inversely related to climatic differences between the gardens and seed‐source populations, specifically the site differences in maximum–minimum annual temperatures. Results suggest that substantial site‐specificity in adaptation can occur at finer scales than is accounted for in empirical seed‐transfer guidance when the guidance is derived from broadscale common‐garden studies. Being within the same empirical seed zone, geographic unit, and even within 10 km distance may not qualify as “local” in the context of seed transfer. Moving forward, designing common‐garden experiments so that they allow for testing the scale of adaptation will help in translating the resulting seed‐transfer guidance to restoration projects.

Idaho↗
USGS2015

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi , are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Characterization of ten microsatellite loci in the Broad-tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus)

The Broad-tailed Hummingbird ( Selaphorus platycercus ) breeds at higher elevations in the central and southern Rockies, eastern California, and Mexico and has been studied for 8 years in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Questions regarding the relatedness of Broad-tailed Hummingbirds banded together and then recaptured in close time proximity in later years led us to isolate and develop primers for 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci. In a screen of 25 individuals from a population in Rocky Mountain National Park, the 10 loci were found to have levels of variability ranging from two to 16 alleles. No loci were found to depart from linkage disequilibrium, although two loci revealed significant departures from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. These 10 microsatellite loci will be applicable for population genetic analyses, investigation of mating systems and relatedness, and may help gain insight into the migration timing and routes for this species.

Conservation Genetics Resources↗
USGS2015

Hybridization between Yellowstone cutthroat trout and rainbow trout alters the expression of muscle growth-related genes and their relationships with growth patterns

Hybridization creates novel gene combinations that may generate important evolutionary novelty, but may also reduce existing adaptation by interrupting inherent biological processes, such as genotype-environment interactions. Hybridization often causes substantial change in patterns of gene expression, which, in turn, may cause phenotypic change. Rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and cutthroat trout ( O . clarkii ) produce viable hybrids in the wild, and introgressive hybridization with introduced rainbow trout is a major conservation concern for native cutthroat trout. The two species differ in body shape, which is likely an evolutionary adaptation to their native environments, and their hybrids tend to show intermediate morphology. The characterization of gene expression patterns may provide insights on the genetic basis of hybrid and parental morphologies, as well as on the ecological performance of hybrids in the wild. Here, we evaluated the expression of eight growth-related genes (MSTN-1a, MSTN-1b, MyoD1a, MyoD1b, MRF-4, IGF-1, IGF-2, and CAST-L) and the relationship of these genes with growth traits (length, weight, and condition factor) in six line crosses: both parental species, both reciprocal F1 hybrids, and both first-generation backcrosses (F1 x rainbow trout and F1 x cutthroat trout). Four of these genes were differentially expressed among rainbow, cutthroat, and their hybrids. Transcript abundance was significantly correlated with growth traits across the parent species, but not across hybrids. Our findings suggest that rainbow and cutthroat trout exhibit differences in muscle growth regulation, that transcriptional networks may be modified by hybridization, and that hybridization disrupts intrinsic relationships between gene expression and growth patterns that may be functionally important for phenotypic adaptations.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

Distribution, densities, and ecology of Siberian cranes in the Khroma River region of northern Yakutia in northeastern Russia

The Siberian crane ( Grus leucogeranus ) is the third rarest crane species in the world with a breeding range now centered on 3 core areas and a buffer zone in the arctic of northern Yakutia in northeastern Russia. During 16 July-2 August 2009, we undertook ground surveys within the Khroma River core breeding area, surrounding buffer zone, and lands lying to the west of the known rbeeding range to estimate densities and determine habitat use and social status of Siberian cranes. A total of 142 Siberian cranes were sighted (including 55 pairs) at 54 locations with 32 cranes (including 13 pairs) sighted outside the currently known breeding range in the lower drainages of the Syalakh and Syuryuktyakh Rivers. After adjusting for a probability of detection of 0.484 (95% CI = 0.281-0.833), Siberian crane densities in the Khroma core area and the buffer zone averaged 0.0921 cranes/km 2 and 0.0363 cranes/km 2 , respectively. A majority of cranes ( n = 93 [65%]) occurred in complexes of large basin wetlands, with use centered in those having extensive beds of pendant grass ( Arctophila fulva ). Of the 142 cranes seen, 110 (77%) were paired, 21 (15%) were singles, and 11 (8%) were in groups of 3-5. The Khroma core supports 1 of 2 large concentrations of breeding Siberian cranes remaining in the wild; therefore, we recommend that consideration be given to designating a nature reserve that would encompass the Khroma core, adjacent buffer zone, and lands to the west (including coastal tundra areas along the lower drainages of the Syalah and Syuryuktyah Rivers). Further research is needed to gain additional insight into Siberian crane distribution and numbers on lands beyond the currently delineated western boundary of the Siberian crane breeding range in the Ust-Yana District of northern Yakutia. Important gaps remain in information needed to effectively guide conservation efforts for the Eastern Population, and recent advances in remote tracking technology offer potential opportunities to help address several key information needs.

Khroma River region↗
USGS2024

An analytical approach for simulating effects of avalanches on mountain goat population dynamics: Implications for management and conservation

Mountain environments with snow avalanche hazard cover about 6% of Earth’s land area and occur on all continents. Whereas human risks associated with avalanche hazard have been widely studied, little is known about how avalanche activity affects population dynamics in mountain wildlife. Globally, 32 species of mountain ungulates across 70 countries occupy avalanche-prone terrain. Avalanches comprise the leading cause of mortality in coastal Alaskan mountain goats (mean = 36%, range = 23 - 65%, depending on area), and disproportionately remove prime-aged individuals from populations. The implications of such rates and patterns of mortality on population growth rate are likely to be significant given the species’ low reproductive productivity, but further clarity is needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a sex- and age-specific population modeling approach that integrates both reproduction and mortality to simulate the effects of avalanche-caused mortality on population growth rate across a range of empirically-observed states of avalanche-caused mortality (minimum, mean, maximum). Simulations were conducted to illustrate model functionality, and also provide insight about potential avalanche impacts on population demographic processes. For example, when severe avalanche years occur populations can experience significant additive mortality and declines (up to 15%). Due to low reproductive rates and slow life-history strategy of the species, such impacts can lead to long demographic recovery times (up to 11 years). From a species conservation perspective, such impacts are striking, and highlight the utility of employing a quantitative modeling approach to predict possible effects of avalanches on mountain ungulate population dynamics and viability. Our work explicitly builds upon recent findings about the importance of avalanches on mountain-adapted animal populations, and associated implications for the cultural and ecological communities that depend on them.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Insights from long-term ungrazed and grazed watersheds in a salt desert Colorado Plateau ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems cover over 41% of the earth’s land surface, and living within these important ecosystems are approximately 2 billion people, a large proportion of whom are subsistence agropastoralists. Improper grazing in drylands can negatively impact ecosystem productivity, soil conservation, hydrologic processes, downstream water quantity and quality, and ultimately human health and economic well-being. Concerns regarding the degraded state of western US rangelands in the 1950s resulted in an interagency committee to study the effects of land use on runoff and erosion processes. In 1953, a federal research group established four paired watersheds in western Colorado to study the interaction of grazing by domestic livestock, runoff, and sediment yield. Exclusion of livestock from half of the watersheds dramatically reduced runoff and sediment yield after the first 10 yr—primarily due to changes in ground cover but not vegetation. Here, we report results of repeated soils and vegetation assessments of the experimental watersheds after more than 50 yr of grazing exclusion. Results show that many of the differences in soil conditions between grazed and ungrazed watersheds observed in the 1950s and 1960s were still present in 2004, despite reduced numbers of livestock: few differences in vegetation cover but large differences in biological soil crusts, soil stability, soil compaction, and soil biogeochemistry. There were differences among soil types in response to grazing history, especially soil lichen cover and soil organic matter, nitrogen, and sodium. Comparisons of ground cover measured in 2004 with those measured in 1953, 1966, and 1972 suggest much of the differences between grazed and ungrazed watersheds likely were driven by high sheep numbers during droughts in the 1950s. Persistence of these differences, despite large reductions in stocking rates , suggest the combination of overgrazing and drought may have pushed these salt desert ecosystems into a persistent, degraded ecological state.

Salt Desert Colorado Plateau Ecosystem↗
USGS2025

Understanding and predicting infection dynamics for an endangered amphibian using long-term surveys of wild and translocated frogs

Amphibians are a prominent component of Earth's sixth mass extinction and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a primary driver of declines. Although Bd dynamics are well studied, the environmental drivers, exacerbating risk factors, and value of conservation interventions like translocations remain challenging to predict. Here, we present results from two decades of Bd monitoring for mountain yellow-legged frogs ( Rana muscosa) in the southern California Transverse and Peninsular mountain ranges. We describe Bd prevalence and infection intensity across sites; model how variables associated with climate, habitat, and populations relate to prevalence; and integrate Bd data from wild and translocated frogs to test whether a machine learning system can predict infection prevalence at new sites. Our findings indicate substantial spatiotemporal variation in Bd dynamics. Bd was present at all sites but prevalence and infection intensities were often low. Environmental features including temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and shortwave radiation explained significant variation in Bd prevalence, but their predictive value varied across mountain ranges. Although clear environmental predictors across populations remain elusive, we provide evidence for the importance of warmer and wetter springs and winters, with implications of increased risk under climate change predictions. We also found evidence for higher Bd prevalence among translocated than wild frogs. Although our machine learning model predicted a Bd prevalence threshold with relatively high accuracy, understanding the factors driving within- and between-population Bd dynamics is complex. Taken together, our findings provide new insights into the complicated role of Bd in amphibian declines and suggest revised management approaches.

California↗
USGS2019

Genetic tagging in the Anthropocene: Scaling ecology from alleles to ecosystems

The Anthropocene is an era of marked human impact on the world. Quantifying these impacts 51 has become central to understanding the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems, resource52 dependent livelihoods, and biodiversity conservation. Ecologists are facing growing pressure to 53 quantify the size, distribution, and trajectory of wild populations in a cost-effective and socially54 acceptable manner. Genetic tagging, combined with modern computational and genetic analyses, 55 is an under-utilized tool to meet this demand, especially for wide-ranging, elusive, sensitive, and 56 low-density species. Genetic tagging studies are now revealing unprecedented insight into the 57 mechanisms that control the density, trajectory, connectivity and human-wildlife conflict for 58 populations over vast spatial scales. Here we outline the application of, and ecological inferences 59 from, new analytical techniques applied to genetically-tagged individuals, contrast this approach 60 with conventional methods, and describe how genetic tagging can be better applied to address 61 outstanding questions in ecology. We provide example analyses using a long-term genetic 62 tagging dataset of grizzly bears in the Canadian Rockies. The genetic tagging toolbox is a 63 powerful and overlooked ensemble that ecologists and conservation biologists can leverage to 64 generate evidence and meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.

Ecological Applications↗