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USGS2020

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana↗

USGS2017

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2017

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: An analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2020

Ecological effects of climate-driven salinity variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can we anticipate and manage the coming changes?

Climate change-driven sea level rise and altered precipitation regimes are predicted to alter patterns of salt intrusion within the San Francisco Estuary. A central question is: Can we use existing knowledge and future projections to predict and manage the anticipated ecological impacts? This was the subject of a 2018 symposium entitled “Ecological and Physiological Impacts of Salinization of Aquatic Systems from Human Activities.” The symposium brought together an inter-disciplinary group of scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers. Here, we summarize and review the presentations and discussions that arose during the symposium. From a historical perspective, salt intrusion has changed substantially over the past 10,000 years as a result of changing climate patterns, with additional shifts from recent anthropogenic effects. Current salinity patterns in the San Francisco Estuary are driven by a suite of hydrodynamic processes within the given contexts of water management and geography. Based on climate projections for the coming century, significant changes are expected in the processes that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity. Given that native species—including fishes such as the Delta Smelt and Sacramento Splittail—track favorable habitats, exhibit physiological acclimation, and can adaptively evolve, we present a framework for assessing their vulnerability to altered salinity in the San Francisco Estuary. We then present a range of regulatory and structural management tools that are available to control patterns of salinity within the San Francisco Estuary. Finally, we identify major research priorities that can help fill critical gaps in our knowledge about future salinity patterns and the consequences of climate change and sea level rise. These research projects will be most effective with strong linkages and communication between scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers.

California↗

USGS2025

Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness

The Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Bacterial genomics reveal the complex epidemiology of an emerging pathogen in arctic and boreal ungulates

Northern ecosystems are currently experiencing unprecedented ecological change, largely driven by a rapidly changing climate. Pathogen range expansion, and emergence and altered patterns of infectious disease, are increasingly reported in wildlife at high latitudes. Understanding the causes and consequences of shifting pathogen diversity and host-pathogen interactions in these ecosystems is important for wildlife conservation, and for indigenous populations that depend on wildlife. Among the key questions are whether disease events are associated with endemic or recently introduced pathogens, and whether emerging strains are spreading throughout the region. In this study, we used a phylogenomic approach to address these questions of pathogen endemicity and spread for Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae , an opportunistic multi-host bacterial pathogen associated with recent mortalities in arctic and boreal ungulate populations in North America. We isolated E. rhusiopathiae from carcasses associated with large-scale die-offs of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and from contemporaneous mortality events and/or population declines among muskoxen in northwestern Alaska and caribou and moose in western Canada. Bacterial genomic diversity differed markedly among these locations; minimal divergence was present among isolates from muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, while in caribou and moose populations, strains from highly divergent clades were isolated from the same location, or even from within a single carcass. These results indicate that mortalities among northern ungulates are not associated with a single emerging strain of E. rhusiopathiae , and that alternate hypotheses need to be explored. Our study illustrates the value and limitations of bacterial genomic data for discriminating between ecological hypotheses of disease emergence, and highlights the importance of studying emerging pathogens within the broader context of environmental and host factors.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2014

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2009

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

BioScience↗

USGS2021

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2022

Surface elevation change dynamics in coastal marshes along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Anticipating effects of rising sea-level and intensifying hurricanes

Accelerated sea-level rise and intensifying hurricanes highlight the need to better understand surface elevation change in coastal wetlands. We used the surface elevation table-marker horizon approach to measure surface elevation change in 14 coastal marshes along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, within five National Wildlife Refuges in Texas (USA). During the 2014–2019 study period, the mean rate of surface elevation change was 1.96 ± 0.87 mm yr −1 (range: -1.57 to 8.37 mm yr −1 ). Vertical accretion rates varied due to landscape proximity relative to sediment inputs from Hurricane Harvey. At most sites, vertical accretion offset subsurface losses due to shallow subsidence. However, net elevation gains were often lower than recent relative sea-level rise rates, and much lower than rates expected under future sea-level rise. Because these marshes are not keeping pace with recent sea-level rise, it is unlikely that they will be able to adjust to future accelerations. Climate change threatens these Texas coastal wetlands and the ecological and economic services they provide. By characterizing the status and prospective loss of coastal marshes, our study reinforces the value of identifying local and landscape-level adaptation mechanisms that can enhance the ability of coastal marshes to adapt to threats posed by climate change.

Texas↗

USGS2022

Multiproxy paleolimnological records provide evidence for a shift to a new ecosystem state in the Northern Great Plains, USA

Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Northern Great Plains perform multiple ecosystem services and are biodiversity hotspots. However, climatological changes can result in sudden shifts in these important ecosystems. For example, marked increases in precipitation in the last few decades have resulted in a widespread shift in wetlands across the Prairie Pothole Region to a new ecohydrological state. We used multiproxy analyses (diatom community composition and invertebrate stable isotopes) of 210 Pb-dated sediment cores from two adjacent, but morphologically and hydrologically different, prairie-pothole wetlands to assess the effects of hydroclimatic variability on these wetland ecosystems. Our results provide evidence that the recent ecohydrological shift in the region's wetlands is unprecedented over the past ca. 178 yr. Oxygen stable isotopes in chironomid head capsules provide a record of paleohydrology changes. The most recent sediments (i.e., those deposited after the state shift) from both wetlands revealed novel changes in diatom communities that differed greatly from earlier community compositions. In addition, a depleted signal in deuterium and 13 C carbon stable isotopes observed in chironomid head capsules and Daphnia ephippia, respectively, after 1993 is likely related to an increase in methane production in these wetlands. Our study highlights the importance of considering basin morphometry including whether a wetland has an overflow point, and multiple biological indicators to study climate-change influences on freshwater ecosystems. Research using these techniques can lead to an improved understanding of recent ecosystem shifts, an understanding that will be essential for future climate-change adaptation and mitigation in this ecologically important region.

North Dakota↗

USGS2016

Pelagic nekton abundance and distribution in the northern Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Knowledge of the habitats occupied by species is fundamental for the development of effective conservation and management actions. The collapse of pelagic fish species in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, has triggered a need to better understand factors that drive their distribution and abundance. A study was conducted in summer–fall 2014 in an attempt to identify physical and biological habitat conditions that drive the abundance and distribution of pelagic species in the northern region of the system. The study was conducted in the three largest channels in the northern Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta by dimension, volume, and flow capacity. The pelagic community was dominated by three nonnative species, Siberian prawn Exopalaemon modestus , which comprised 56% of the total number of organisms, and two fish species, Threadfin Shad Dorosoma petenense and Mississippi Silversides Menidia audens , which together comprised 43% of the total number of organisms. Total fish and total shrimp abundance were sensitive to the most extreme values of turbidity and temperature encountered and positively associated with total zooplankton biomass. The results suggested that habitat conditions in terminal channels, historically a common feature on the landscape, support higher abundances of pelagic species and zooplankton than open-ended channels. These results provide resource managers with useful information on the habitat associations of pelagic species and on how the future distribution and abundance of pelagic species will likely change in response to climate or other ecological factors.

California↗

USGS2008

Integrating modelling and remote sensing to identify ecosystem performance anomalies in the boreal forest, Yukon River Basin, Alaska

High-latitude ecosystems are exposed to more pronounced warming effects than other parts of the globe. We develop a technique to monitor ecological changes in a way that distinguishes climate influences from disturbances. In this study, we account for climatic influences on Alaskan boreal forest performance with a data-driven model. We defined ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA) using the residuals of the model and made annual maps of EPA. Most areas (88%) did not have anomalous ecosystem performance for at least 6 of 8 years between 1996 and 2004. Areas with underperforming EPA (10%) often indicate areas associated with recent fires and areas of possible insect infestation or drying soil related to permafrost degradation. Overperforming areas (2%) occurred in older fire recovery areas where increased deciduous vegetation components are expected. The EPA measure was validated with composite burn index data and Landsat vegetation indices near and within burned areas.

International Journal of Digital Earth↗

USGS2018

Remaining populations of an upland stream fish persist in refugia defined by habitat features at multiple scales

Aim Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter ( Etheostoma osburni ), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment- and/or segment-scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni 's southern range. Catchment-scale features primarily constrained land use and finer-scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population-supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location , suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species’ distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale-specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2022

Higher temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out alters the time between phenophases across temperate tree species

Aim The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the length of the time period between leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species, and associate these changes with potential physiological and environmental drivers to enhance mechanistic insight into these phenomena. Location Central Europe. Time period 1980–2016. Major taxa studied Six temperate woody species. Methods Statistical analyses were carried out based on long-term ground observations of both spring leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species during 1980–2016, a period characterized by rapid warming. Results The temperature sensitivity of flowering (−5.4 ± 0.04 days/℃, mean ± SE ) was higher than that of leaf-out (−4.6 ± 0.04 days/℃) across all species, regardless of whether leaf-out occurred before or after flowering. This study postulates a hypothesis attributing the different temperature sensitivities to different thermal sensitivities, thermal requirements, and photoperiodic controls. Main conclusions The larger temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out resulted in an extended time period between flowering and leaf-out in species that bloom before leafing out, but a shorter time period between these phenophases in species with the opposite strategy. We would like to emphasize the importance of changes in time period between different phenophases, and we recommend conducting experimental research to reveal the underlying mechanisms of plant phenology response to climate change, and to explore its potential ecological implications.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2022

Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions

High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscape conditions differ, which becomes a source of uncertainty when they are applied to subsequent analyses. Here we tested the range of values from five gridded climate datasets. We compared their values to observations from 1231 weather stations, first using each dataset’s native scale, and then after each was rescaled to 270-m resolution. We inputted the downscaled grids to a mechanistic hydrology model and assessed the spatial results of six hydrological variables across California, in 10 ecoregions and 11 large watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. PRISM was most accurate for precipitation, ClimateNA for maximum temperature, and TopoWx for minimum temperature. The single most accurate dataset overall was PRISM due to the best performance for precipitation and low air temperature errors. Hydrological differences ranged up to 70% of the average monthly streamflow with an average of 35% disagreement for all months derived from different historical climate maps. Large differences in minimum air temperature data produced differences in modeled actual evapotranspiration, snowpack, and streamflow. Areas with the highest variability in climate data, including the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains ecoregions, also had the largest spread for snow water equivalent, recharge, and runoff.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2016

The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

F1000 Research↗