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USGS1998

Impacts of trapping and banding activities on productivity of Roseate Terns (Sterna Dougallii)

Although Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) habituate to many research activities, trapping and handling breeding adults, or repeatedly handling chicks, may affect reproductive success or chick growth. Protocols for trapping adult Roseate Terns that reduce the chances of nest desertion, neglect of chicks, and injury to adults were developed in the early 1980s, but neither short-term nor long-term effects of research activities on this endangered species have been fully investigated. Therefore, this study had the following main objectives: 1) examine long-term data (1978-1996) to determine if trapping activities have had a major effect on annual reproductive success of a Roseate Tern colony, 2) evaluate the effects of trapping adult terns on reproductive success and chick growth, and 3) evaluate the effects of handling chicks on their growth and survival. There were no significant correlations between measures of trapping disturbance and annual reproductive success in 1978-1996 for the Falkner Island (Stewart B. McKinney National Wildlife Refuge, Connecticut) colony, suggesting that trapping from late incubation through chick rearing using the field protocols described herein does not have a major effect on nesting success of Roseate Terns. In 1987-1996, adult trapping did not reduce prefledging survival of first-hatched chicks, and reduced survival of second-hatched chicks only in 1994 and 1995. Results of more detailed research in 1994-1996 suggest that Roseate Terns may be susceptible to trapping effects only when also faced with extreme conditions such as low food availability and/or high predation pressure. Trapping effects did not occur in most years under apparently average or typical conditions, and otherwise seem to be much less important than other factors affecting nesting success (e.g., predation and food availability). Analyses of chick growth data from 1987-1996 showed that while trapping significantly reduced early growth compared to untrapped controls, most of these effects disappeared after controlling for variation due to laying variables and other indices of parental age and quality. Trapping had little or no effect on later growth (indices of fledgling quality) and thus is unlikely to affect postfledging survival and fitness. For chicks whose parents were trapped, the sex of the adult(s), timing of trapping during the nesting stage, and interval between trapping events (if both parents were trapped) had little or no effect on growth. Daily or near-daily handling of chicks did not significantly affect their growth, prefledging survival, or postfledging survival. These results suggest that while trapping adult Roseate Terns can sometimes affect reproductive success and early chick growth and should be taken into account during research, trapping effects tend to be minor, short-lived, and unlikely to affect overall population health. While the full implications for population health and individual fitness are not entirely clear, there appears to be little cause for concern that trapping and banding activities are a significant problem for Roseate Terns. However, this qualitative assessment of the biological significance of trapping effects needs empirical testing. There remains a practical need to explore the ramifications of trapping effects and to consider local conditions when planning trapping activities. We also need to consider how investigator-induced effects might affect research results, and to balance potential effects of research activities against the value of the information gained.

Book↗

USGS2016

Betrayal: radio-tagged Burmese pythons reveal locations of conspecifics in Everglades National Park

The “Judas” technique is based on the idea that a radio-tagged individual can be used to “betray” conspecifics during the course of its routine social behavior. The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is an invasive constrictor in southern Florida, and few methods are available for its control. Pythons are normally solitary, but from December–April in southern Florida, they form breeding aggregations containing up to 8 individuals, providing an opportunity to apply the technique. We radio-tracked 25 individual adult pythons of both sexes during the breeding season from 2007–2012. Our goals were to (1) characterize python movements and determine habitat selection for betrayal events, (2) quantify betrayal rates of Judas pythons, and (3) compare the efficacy of this tool with current tools for capturing pythons, both in terms of cost per python removed (CPP) and catch per unit effort (CPUE). In a total of 33 python-seasons, we had 8 betrayal events (24 %) in which a Judas python led us to new pythons. Betrayal events occurred more frequently in lowland forest (including tree islands) than would be expected by chance alone. These 8 events resulted in the capture of 14 new individuals (1–4 new pythons per event). Our effort comparison shows that while the Judas technique is more costly than road cruising surveys per python removed, the Judas technique yields more large, reproductive females and is effective at a time of year that road cruising is not, making it a potential complement to the status quo removal effort.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Experimental evidence of long-term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade-offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short-term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long-lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long-term survival and breeding effects of a multi-year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla , a long-lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi-state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16-yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long-term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long-lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Temporal patterns in the foraging behavior of sea otters in Alaska

Activity time budgets in apex predators have been proposed as indicators of population status relative to resource limitation or carrying capacity. We used archival time-depth recorders implanted in 15 adult female and 4 male sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from the northernmost population of the species, Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, to examine temporal patterns in their foraging behavior. Sea otters that we sampled spent less time foraging during summer (females 8.8 hr/day, males 7.9 hr/day) than other seasons (females 10.1–10.5 hr/day, males 9.2–9.5 hr/day). Both sexes showed strong preferences for diurnal foraging and adjusted their foraging effort in response to the amount of available daylight. One exception to this diurnal foraging mode occurred after females gave birth. For approximately 3 weeks post-partum, females switched to nocturnal foraging, possibly in an effort to reduce the risk of predation by eagles on newborn pups. We used multilevel mixed regression models to assess the contribution of several biological and environmental covariates to variation in the daily foraging effort of parous females. In the random effects only model, 87% of the total variation in foraging effort was within-otter variation. The relatively small among-otter variance component (13%) indicates substantial consistency in the foraging effort of sea otters in this northern population. In the top 3 models, 17% of the within-otter variation was explained by reproductive stage, day length, wind speed, air temperature and a wind speed × air temperature interaction. This study demonstrates the potential importance of environmental and reproductive effects when using activity budgets to assess population status relative to carrying capacity.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Reproductive health indicators of fishes from Pennsylvania watersheds: association with chemicals of emerging concern

Fishes were collected at 16 sites within the three major river drainages (Delaware, Susquehanna, and Ohio) of Pennsylvania. Three species were evaluated for biomarkers of estrogenic/antiandrogenic exposure, including plasma vitellogenin and testicular oocytes in male fishes. Smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu , white sucker Catostomus commersonii , and redhorse sucker Moxostoma species were collected in the summer, a period of low flow and low reproductive activity. Smallmouth bass were the only species in which testicular oocytes were observed; however, measurable concentrations of plasma vitellogenin were found in male bass and white sucker. The percentage of male bass with testicular oocytes ranged from 10 to 100 %, with the highest prevalence and severity in bass collected in the Susquehanna drainage. The percentage of males with plasma vitellogenin ranged from 0 to 100 % in both bass and sucker. Biological findings were compared with chemical analyses of discrete water samples collected at the time of fish collections. Estrone concentrations correlated with testicular oocytes prevalence and severity and with the percentage of male bass with vitellogenin. No correlations were noted with the percentage of male sucker with vitellogenin and water chemical concentrations. The prevalence and severity of testicular oocytes in bass also correlated with the percent of agricultural land use in the watershed above a site. Two sites within the Susquehanna drainage and one in the Delaware were immediately downstream of wastewater treatment plants to compare results with upstream fish. The percentage of male bass with testicular oocytes was not consistently higher downstream; however, severity did tend to increase downstream.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1993

Dioxin-like toxic potency in Forster's tern eggs from Green Bay, Lake Michigan, North America

The endangered Forster's tern (Sternaforsteri) population on Green Bay, Wisconsin has exhibited symptoms of embryotoxicity, congenital deformities, and poor hatching success. The putative causal agents are planar halogenated hydrocarbons (PHH). The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate the toxic potency of PHHs in extracts of Forster's tern eggs taken from Green Bay, Lake Michigan and a reference site, Lake Poygan, WI; and 2) to compare the toxic potencies of the egg extracts with the reproductive data available from the same water bird colonies. The relative toxic potency of the egg extracts was assessed with the H4IIE bioassay system to obtain 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ). The average concentrations of TCDD-EQ in Forster's tern eggs were 214.5 pg/g and 23.4 pg/g from Green Bay and Lake Poygan, respectively. The bioassay results presented here concur with the biological effects and chemical analyses information from other studies on the same Forster's tern colonies.

Chemosphere↗

USGS2019

Ecological and management implications of climate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife species in the Northeast CASC region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project seeks to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Ideally the suite of species selected will allow us to compare whether fish, marine mammals, shore and seabird predators are shifting their phenology at different rates than their primary prey and optimal habitat conditions, thus influencing trophic interactions and population dynamics. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted simultaneous to data collection and synthesis to determine what is known, and what knowledge/information/data gaps exist regarding regional phenological responses of coastal species to climate change. Project results will help managers assess the vulnerability of coastal species to climate change by providing information on how they are responding to impacts in the region.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2003

Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long–distance migrants, delays in short–distance migrants

As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long–term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42–year period, we analysed long–term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2018

Refining aging criteria for northern sea otters in Washington State

Measurement of skull ossification patterns is a standard method for aging various mammalian species and has been used to age sea otters Enhydra lutris from Russia, California, and Alaska. Cementum annuli counts have also been verified as an accurate aging method for sea otters in Alaska. In this study, we compared cementum annuli count results and skull ossification patterns as methods for aging the northern sea otter, E. l. kenyoni, in Washington State. We found significant agreement between the two methods, suggesting that either method could be used to age sea otters in Washington. We found that ossification of the squamosal–jugal suture at the ventral glenoid fossa can be used to differentiate male subadults from adults. To assist field biologists or others without access to cementum annuli or skull ossification analysis techniques, we analyzed a suite of morphologic, physiologic, and developmental characteristics to assess whether a set of these more easily accessible parameters could also predict age class. We identified tooth condition score, evidence of reproductive activity in females, and tooth eruption pattern as the most useful criteria for classifying sea otters in Washington. We created a simple decision tree based on characteristics accessible in the field or at necropsy, which can be used to reliably predict age class of Washington sea otters as determined by cementum annuli. These techniques offer field biologists and marine mammal stranding networks a replicable, cost-conscious methodology to gather useful biological information from sea otters.

Washington↗

USGS2001

Seasonal variation in physiological condition of Amblema plicata in the Upper Mississippi River

Measures of physiological condition are being used as sub-lethal endpoints in studies with unionids exposed to a variety of stressors, yet the natural seasonal variation in these measures are largely undocumented. We measured concentrations of glycogen in foot and mantle tissue and a tissue condition index (TCI) in Amblema plicata (Say 1817), about monthly, for 2 years in mussels that were: (1) obtained directly from the Upper Mississippi River (riverine group); and (2) relocated from the river into an artificial pond (relocated group). In both groups, we observed significant seasonal variation in all physiological indicators. Seasonal variation in glycogen was 72% in mantle and 52% in foot tissue and paralleled reproductive activity in this short-term breeder. In the relocated group, most of the variation in glycogen occurred during the first six months after relocation, suggesting that handling stress may have been a contributing factor. The significant seasonal variation in the TCI paralleled glycogen in riverine mussels. We observed tissue-specific differences in glycogen in the riverine group, but not in the relocated group. These data suggest that an interaction of environmental and biological factors influence the energetic status of mussels in natural populations. A better understanding of this variation is needed to interpret changes in physiological condition due to stressors such as relocation.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2001

Breeding productivity and survival of the endangered Hawai'i Creeper in a wet forest refuge on Mauna Kea, Hawai'i

We studied the demography of the endangered Hawai‘i Creeper ( Oreomystis muna ) from 1994-1999 at three sites in Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR). Hawai‘i Creepers bred from January to June, with peak breeding in February through May (about 120-l 80 days), and molted from May to August. A small proportion (4.9%) of individuals overlapped breeding and molting activities. We located and monitored the fates of 60 nests. Mean clutch size was 2.1 eggs, nest building required 19 days, incubation was 16 to 17 days, and nestling period lasted 18 days. Of all nest attempts, 25% were abandoned before egg laying, 6.7% were removed for captive propagation, 13.3% had undetermined fates, 38.3% failed during incubation or nestling periods, and 16.7% were successful. Thus, of 33 nests that were active through egg laying and outcome was confirmed, only 30% were successful. The daily survival rate of active nests was 0.960 t 0.009 SE. An average of 1.7 chicks fledged from successful nests. Thirty-two percent of hatch-year birds were alive and in the study area at least one year later. Annual adult survival was high (0.88 t 0.03). The primary factors limiting productivity of Hawai‘i Creeper in Hakalau Forest NWR appear to be low reproductive potential in combination with high rates of nesting failure. Further research into the causes of nest failure, the length of the breeding season, and renesting behavior of females is needed, and protection of the forest from the degrading impacts of introduced mammals is paramount.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2025

Pit tag application in native freshwater mussels: Case studies across small, medium, and large rivers

Since their first use in the mid-1980s, external passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags have facilitated innovative investigations into multiple biological traits of animals. For native freshwater mussels, PIT tags are frequently used in capture-mark-recapture applications because they allow repeated, noninvasive sampling, are easy to apply, have high retention rates, and have negligible short-term effects on growth and survival. Because of these traits, resource managers and scientists are using PIT-tagged animals to estimate survival and movement of mussels associated with restoration efforts. However, consistency is limited in how PIT tags are affixed, monitored, and reported. Thus, our objectives were to (1) share our collective experiences in PIT tagging mussels across three case studies in small, medium, and large rivers and (2) propose guidelines for tagging and reporting data from PIT tag studies with native freshwater mussels to facilitate comparisons across future studies. The number of studies that have marked mussels with PIT tags has increased over the past 10 years. The ability to detect mussels using PIT tags has substantially advanced research in three areas of mussel ecology: (1) estimating vital rates (e.g., growth and survival), (2) tracking movements and behaviors of captively propagated, wild, and translocated individuals, and (3) improving our understanding of life history traits, such as reproductive timing. Each case study offers insights on tagging methods, tag loss, tag retention, and monitoring frequency across multiple species that range in conservation status from common to rare. We conclude with best-practice guidelines for placing PIT tags on freshwater mussels and a list of variables that could be reported in future studies to facilitate cross-system comparisons.

Freshwater Mollusk Biology and Conservation↗

USGS2012

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant–herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant–herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant–herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2012

Biomedical health assessments of the Florida manatee in Crystal River - providing opportunities for training during the capture, handling, and processing of this endangered aquatic mammal

Federal and state researchers have been involved in manatee (Trichechus manatus) biomedical health assessment programs for a couple of decades. These benchmark studies have provided a foundation for the development of consistent capture, handling, and processing techniques and protocols. Biologists have implemented training and encouraged multi-agency participation whenever possible to ensure reliable data acquisition, recording, sample collection, publication integrity, and meeting rigorous archival standards. Under a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service wildlife research permit granted to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Sirenia Project, federal biologists and collaborators are allowed to conduct research studies on wild and captive manatees detailing various aspects of their biology. Therefore, researchers with the project have been collaborating on numerous studies over the last several years. One extensive study, initiated in 2006 has focused on health and fitness of the winter manatee population located in Crystal River, Florida. During those health assessments, capture, handling, and work-up training has been afforded to many of the participants. That study has successfully captured and handled 123 manatees. The data gathered have provided baseline information on manatee health, reproductive status, and nutritional condition. This research initiative addresses concerns and priorities outlined in the Florida Manatee Recovery Plan. The assessment teams strive to continue this collaborative effort to help advance our understanding of health-related issues confronting manatees throughout their range and interlacing these findings with surrogate species concepts.

Florida↗

USGS2010

Physiological response of wild dugongs ( Dugong dugon ) to out-of-water sampling for health assessment

The dugong ( Dugong dugon ) is a vulnerable marine mammal with large populations living in urban Queensland waters. A mark-recapture program for wild dugongs has been ongoing in southern Queensland since 2001. This program has involved capture and in-water sampling of more than 700 dugongs where animals have been held at the water surface for 5 min to be gene-tagged, measured, and biopsied. In 2008, this program expanded to examine more comprehensively body condition, reproductive status, and the health of wild dugongs in Moreton Bay. Using Sea World's research vessel, captured dugongs were lifted onto a boat and sampled out-of-water to obtain accurate body weights and morphometrics, collect blood and urine samples for baseline health parameters and hormone profiles, and ultrasound females for pregnancy status. In all, 30 dugongs, including two pregnant females, were sampled over 10 d and restrained on deck for up to 55 min each while biological data were collected. Each of the dugongs had their basic temperature-heart rate-respiration (THR) monitored throughout their period of handling, following protocols developed for the West Indian manatee ( Trichechus manatus ). This paper reports on the physiological response of captured dugongs during this out-of-water operation as indicated by their vital signs and the suitability of the manatee monitoring protocols to this related sirenian species. A recommendation is made that the range of vital signs of these wild dugongs be used as benchmark criteria of normal parameters for other studies that intend to sample dugongs out-of-water.

Queensland↗

USGS2016

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem↗

USGS2018

Factors affecting nesting ecology of Apalone spinifera in a northwestern Great Plains river of the United States

The nesting ecology of Apalone spinifera in large North American rivers is largely unknown despite the wide distribution of the species in these naturally dynamic ecosystems. We describe the nesting locations, timing, behavior, and habitat of A. spinifera in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors in the Missouri River. Nesting followed annual peak river stage, mostly occurred in the afternoon when air temperatures were 25°–30°C, and did not occur when human activity was nearby. Apalone spinifera nested in June in a year with average discharge (2012), but nested 20 d later in a year with a large flood event (2011). During the average discharge year, 90% of nests were found on islands, but similar proportions of nests were found on island and mainland habitats during the flood year because many islands were inundated. Nests were mostly in mixed-gravel substrates where vegetation cover was sparse or absent. Depredation occurred only after the emergence of hatchlings (∼ 60 d after nesting) and more often on nests on the mainland than on islands. Emergence rates were ∼ 1.5 times higher in the average year than the flood year, and emergence rates were higher in mixed-gravel nests than in pure-sand nests in 2011. In artificial nests, incubation temperatures averaged ∼ 4.3°C higher in mixed-gravel than in sand substrates, and freezing temperatures in winter penetrated to depths greater than the mean egg chamber depth (7.5 cm) for up to 3 wks. Therefore, incubation might be accelerated in mixed-gravel substrates. Accelerated incubation would enhance reproductive success because freezing temperatures preclude hatchlings from overwintering in nests in our study area. Mountain snowmelt-driven hydrology, coupled with the onset of freezing temperatures in autumn, might create a temporal “runoff-freeze squeeze” that limits the successful reproduction of A. spinifera in some years. However, high runoff also scoured vegetation from shorelines where A. spinifera nested in subsequent years. Natural variation in annual discharge might therefore be crucial to conservation of A. spinifera in large rivers.

Chelonian Conservation and Biology↗

USGS2017

Assessing the risk of non-native marine species in the Bering Sea

Invasive species are one of the leading global conservation concerns, which can have strong, negative impacts on ecosystems, vulnerable species, and valuable natural resources. Arctic regions have experienced a relatively low number of biological introductions to date. Their geographical remoteness, cold waters, and presence of sea ice present challenging conditions for both non-native organisms and the vessels that transport them, presumably leading to low rates of introduction and establishment. However, observed increases in water temperatures reductions in sea ice, and projected increases in shipping traffic are expected to render arctic marine regions more susceptible to the arrival and colonization of marine invasives. Risk assessments for these Arctic regions are important to inform management and monitoring priorities by determining which species pose the greatest risk. To this end, we developed a ranking system for non-native marine species and used this system to assess the risk of non-native species to the Bering Sea. Using species’ published physiological tolerances, we mapped habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios to identify geographic areas of current and future concern. In addition, we described shipping traffic from commercial and fishing vessels to identify ports of entry for non-native species. Collectively, these analyses identify which marine species have the greatest risk for invasion, where in the Bering Sea invasion risk and species establishment is greatest, and which ports are most likely to serve as an entry point for marine invasives into Alaska’s Bering Sea. The ranking system we developed for non-native marine species consists of 33 questions grouped into five categories. The first four categories evaluate a species’ ability to arrive and establish in the Bering Sea, its reliance on humans for introductions, its biology, and its impacts on ecological and human systems. The fifth category is not included in the total ranking score, but provides information on management considerations. The ranking system has methods to account for data deficiencies and calculates these deficiencies to allow readers to weigh the lack of knowledge with the ranking score. We prioritized non-native species for ranking based on their geographic proximity to the Bering Sea. We evaluated 46 species and ranking scores ranged from 29.1 to 74.3 (out of a possible 100), with highest scores indicating greatest risk. Taxonomy at the level of phylum did not explain variation in ranking values, likely due to the substantial biological variation relative to our ranking criteria among members of the same phylum. To investigate where non-native species may survive and persist in the Bering Sea, we compared species’ temperature and salinity thresholds to environmental conditions of the Bering Sea. Environmental conditions were obtained from three Regional Ocean Modeling Systems (ROMS) and investigated under two time periods: current (2003-2012) and mid-century (2030-2039). We identified potential habitat for survival for 42 species, and potential habitat for reproduction for 29 species. Under current conditions, all species had temperature and salinity thresholds that would allow survival in the Bering Sea for at least part of the year, and most species (79% to 83%) had thresholds that would allow for survival year-round. For species with temperature and salinity thresholds unsuitable for survival in the Bering Sea, winter temperatures appear to be the limiting factor. Most species had six to nine weeks of suitable conditions for reproduction. Future increases in water temperatures are expected to open more habitat for marine invasives. Two of the three ROMs project an increase in the number of non-native species that would be able to survive year-round by mid-century. Moreover, models project between 37% and 60% of the Bering Sea shelf habitat to become more suitable under mid-century climate condition.

Alaska↗