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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Advanced distributed acoustic sensing vertical seismic profile imaging of an Alaska North Slope gas hydrate field

Gas hydrates are found in significant quantities on the North Slope of Alaska in subpermafrost sand units and intermixed in lower portions of permafrost within the hydrate stability window. While conventional surface seismic data and established imaging methods can indicate the presence of gas hydrate reservoirs, producing high-resolution images of (seismically) thin layers remains challenging due to the preferential attenuation of the higher-frequency data components. An alternative strategy is to use distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) involving cementing optical fibers into boreholes to measure seismic wavefield energy closer to the strata of interest using vertical seismic profiling (VSP). DAS VSP imaging takes advantage of the shorter travel paths and reduced attenuation to generate higher-resolution near-well images. We illustrate these benefits on a DAS VSP data set acquired at the Hydrate-01 stratigraphic test well located in the Prudhoe Bay Unit of Alaska where significant gas hydrate deposits have been detected in two subpermafrost sand layers that are intended for long-duration production testing. Our DAS data preprocessing workflow effectively isolates the upgoing compressional-wave (P-wave) reflections required for subsurface acoustic imaging. After applying three-dimensional (3-D) tomography to improve the quality of the 3-D migration velocity model, we use 3-D reverse-time migration (RTM) to develop high-quality images of the two target sands and minor near-well faulting. We validate our RTM images through highly accurate well-ties with previously acquired petrophysical log data. This study demonstrates that combining 3-D RTM imaging with DAS VSP data provides significant value to gas hydrate and similar projects, and it suggests that more advanced inversion approaches such as (elastic) least-squares RTM could recover higher-resolution and more quantitative estimates of subsurface reflectivity, which would be valuable for refining the understanding of gas hydrate systems.

Alaska↗
USGS1990

Effect of anelastic and scattering structures of the lithosphere on the shape of local earthquake coda

A simple model of single acoustic scattering is used to study the dependence of the shape of local earthquake coda on the anelastic and scattering structures of the lithosphere. The model is applied to the coda of earthquakes located near Stone Canyon, central California, and provides an explanation for the features observed in the data, which include an interesting temporal variation in the coda shape. A surficial layer with a Q of 50 and thickness of 10 or 25 km underlain by a zone with a Q of 1000 extending to the bottom of the lithosphere, together with a scattering scale length, a, that varies with depth z according to the relation a=0.3 exp[-(z/45)2] are found to constitute the simplest structure of the medium compatible with the coda data and with body and surface wave attenuation data. The profile of heterogeneity sizes implies that the scattering strength increases strongly with depth, a constraint required by the necessity to boost the energy of the later coda without forcing the intrinsic Q to be excessively high in the uppermost mantle. This constraint is viewed as an artifact of the single scattering model which overstimates the scattering coefficient due to the neglect of multiple scattering. The observed temporal variation of the signal is difficult to explain by a simple change of the intrinsic Q at some depth. Rather, it is suggested that the scattering properties at depth changed with time through a variation of the fractional rms velocity fluctuation on the order of one percent. ?? 1990 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS2019

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado↗
USGS2023

Scaling microseismic cloud shape during hydraulic stimulation using in-situ stress and permeability

Forecasting microseismic cloud shape as a proxy of stimulated rock volume may improve the design of an energy extraction system. The microseismic cloud created during hydraulic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs is known empirically to extend in the general direction of the maximum principal stress. However, this empirical relationship is often inconsistent with reported results, and the cloud growth process remains poorly understood. This study investigates microseismic cloud growth using data obtained from a hydraulic stimulation project in Basel, Switzerland, and explores its correlation with measured in situ stress. We applied principal component analysis to a time series of microseismicity for macroscopic characterization of microseismic cloud growth in two- and three-dimensional space. The microseismic cloud, in addition to extending in the general direction of maximum principal stress, expanded in the direction of intermediate principal stress. The orientation of the least microseismic cloud growth was stable and almost identical to the minimum principal stress direction. Further, microseismic cloud shape ratios showed good agreement when compared with in situ stress magnitude ratios. The permeability tensor estimated from microseismicity also provided a good correlation in terms of direction and magnitude with the microseismic cloud growth. We show that in situ stress plays a dominant role by controlling the permeability of each existing fracture in the reservoir fracture system. Consequently, microseismic cloud growth can be scaled by in situ stress as a first-order approximation if there is sufficient variation in the orientation of existing faults.

Basel↗
USGS1998

Microbial diversity in a hydrocarbon- and chlorinated-solvent- contaminated aquifer undergoing intrinsic bioremediation

A culture-independent molecular phylogenetic approach was used to survey constituents of microbial communities associated with an aquifer contaminated with hydrocarbons (mainly jet fuel) and chlorinated solvents undergoing intrinsic bioremediation. Samples were obtained from three redox zones: methanogenic, methanogenic-sulfate reducing, and iron or sulfate reducing. Small-subunit rRNA genes were amplified directly from aquifer material DNA by PCR with universally conserved or Bacteria - or Archaea -specific primers and were cloned. A total of 812 clones were screened by restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP), approximately 50% of which were unique. All RFLP types that occurred more than once in the libraries, as well as many of the unique types, were sequenced. A total of 104 (94 bacterial and 10 archaeal) sequence types were determined. Of the 94 bacterial sequence types, 10 have no phylogenetic association with known taxonomic divisions and are phylogenetically grouped in six novel division level groups (candidate divisions WS1 to WS6); 21 belong to four recently described candidate divisions with no cultivated representatives (OP5, OP8, OP10, and OP11); and 63 are phylogenetically associated with 10 well-recognized divisions. The physiology of two particularly abundant sequence types obtained from the methanogenic zone could be inferred from their phylogenetic association with groups of microorganisms with a consistent phenotype. One of these sequence types is associated with the genus Syntrophus ; Syntrophus spp. produce energy from the anaerobic oxidation of organic acids, with the production of acetate and hydrogen. The organism represented by the other sequence type is closely related to Methanosaeta spp., which are known to be capable of energy generation only through aceticlastic methanogenesis. We hypothesize, therefore, that the terminal step of hydrocarbon degradation in the methanogenic zone of the aquifer is aceticlastic methanogenesis and that the microorganisms represented by these two sequence types occur in syntrophic association.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗
USGS2008

SAGE celebrates 25 years of learning geophysics by doing geophysics

The increasing world demand and record-high costs for energy and mineral resources, along with the attendant environmental and climate concerns, have escalated the need for trained geophysicists to unprecedented levels. This is not only a national need; it's a critical global need. As Earth scientists and educators we must seriously ask if our geophysics pipeline can adequately address this crisis. One program that has helped to answer this question in the affirmative for 25 years is SAGE (Summer of Applied Geophysical Experience). SAGE continues to develop with new faculty, new collaborations, and additional ways to support student participation during and after SAGE. ?? 2008 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

Leading Edge (Tulsa, OK)↗
USGS2007

Coastal change-potential assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes, Indiana Dunes, and Apostle Islands National Lakeshores to lake-level changes

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the susceptibility of the shoreline to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshores (NL) along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The CPI in the Great Lakes setting ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to lake-level related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate and direction (i.e., rise and fall) of relative lake-level change, historical shoreline change rates, annual ice cover and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 1-minute bins covering the parks. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of lake-level and coastal change might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of lake-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI is applied to the National Lakeshores of Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes to test this methodology in lake settings. The National Lakeshores in this study consist of sand and gravel beaches, rock outcrops, and dune and glacial bluffs. The areas within these Great Lakes parks that are likely to experience the most lake-levelrelated coastal change are areas of unconsolidated sediment where regional coastal slope is low and wave energy is high.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

Monitoring of wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Chincoteague living shoreline, Virginia

Nature-based features, also called living shorelines, are increasingly applied in coastal protection and restoration. However, the processes and mechanisms (feedbacks and interactions) of wave attenuation, current velocity change, and sediment deposition and erosion along the living shoreline remain unclear, thus limiting the adaptive management of living shoreline restoration projects for coastal shoreline resilience under future storm conditions. In this study, wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline, Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, a low wave energy environment, were investigated during a 2-month winter period in 2019 to examine the effects of living shoreline structures on shoreline protection and oyster habitat enhancement. It was found that wave attenuation by the living shoreline structures (oyster castles or constructed oyster reefs) is dependent on water depth, wind speed, wind direction, and local bathymetry. Analysis of observed data indicate that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline play a limited role in wave attenuation in this low wave energy environment. During the 2-month winter period, wave energy was attenuated by 39.7 percent when oyster castles were emergent or slightly submerged with southwest winds. In contrast, when the oyster castles were fully submerged, wave energy behind the oyster castles increased by 38.6 percent. The construction of oyster castles affected circulation patterns with increase or decrease in velocity at nearshore waters protected by the castles depending on locations of measurements in relation to the oyster castles. Bottom shear stress analysis indicates that tidal currents play a larger role than waves on shoreline and marsh edge erosion along the Little Toms Cove shoreline during the 2 months of field monitoring. The oyster castles protecting the marsh edge and tidal flat from erosion resulted in higher fine sediment concentration in the water column landward of the castles because more sediment was retained in the lee side of the castles. It is important to maximize sediment within the wetlands and adjacent mudflats behind the oyster castles. Erosion from the marsh edge and interior serves as the major source of sediment for this wetland system due to the limited sediment supply in Assateague Channel. Furthermore, it was found that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline were inundated more than 60 percent of the time, leading to the enhanced oyster habitat as evidenced by suitable velocity (less than 10 centimeters per second) and mean grain size (less than 0.08 millimeters) for oyster feeding and the increased oyster shell density and growth in the intertidal zone protected by the castles than in the control area. More field data (for example, concurrent monitoring of sediment concentration and salinity) over other seasons (for example, summer) could help examine the long term and combined engineering and ecological benefits of living shoreline restoration projects under seasonal and enhanced future storm conditions.

Virginia↗
USGS2016

Forest structure of oak plantations after silvicultural treatment to enhance habitat for wildlife

During the past 30 years, thousands of hectares of oak-dominated bottomland hardwood plantations have been planted on agricultural fields in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Many of these plantations now have closed canopies and sparse understories. Silvicultural treatments could create a more heterogeneous forest structure, with canopy gaps and increased understory vegetation for wildlife. Lack of volume sufficient for commercial harvest in hardwood plantations has impeded treatments, but demand for woody biomass for energy production may provide a viable means to introduce disturbance beneficial for wildlife. We assessed forest structure in response to prescribed pre-commercial perturbations in hardwood plantations resulting from silvicultural treatments: 1) row thinning by felling every fourth planted row; 2) multiple patch cuts with canopy gaps of <1 0.25 – 2 ha; and 3) tree removal on intersecting corridors diagonal to planted rows. These 3 treatments, and an untreated control, were applied to oak plantations (20 - 30 years post-planting) on three National Wildlife Refuges (Cache River, AR; Grand Cote, LA; and Yazoo, MS) during summer 2010. We sampled habitat using fixed-radius plots in 2009 (pre-treatment) and in 2012 (post-treatment) at random locations. Retained basal area was least in diagonal corridor treatments but had greater variance in patch-cut treatments. All treatments increased canopy openness and the volume of coarse woody debris. Occurrence of birds using early successional habitats was greater on sites treated with patch cuts and diagonal intersections. Canopy openings on row-thinned stands are being filled by lateral crown growth of retained trees whereas patch cut and diagonal intersection gaps appear likely to be filled by regenerating saplings.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2023

Application of a catch multiple survey analysis for Atlantic horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay

Objective This paper applies a catch multiple survey analysis (CMSA) to Atlantic horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay to generate robust population estimates for harvest management. Currently, horseshoe crabs along the U.S. Atlantic coast are harvested as bait for other fisheries and collected for their blood, which is used in a biomedical industry. The Delaware Bay is home to the largest population of horseshoe crabs and is a significant stopover for shorebirds to rebuild energy by consuming horseshoe crab eggs prior to completing their northward migration. To address this interrelationship, the Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) Framework has been used since 2013 to ensure that horseshoe crab harvest within the region takes into account the forage needs of migratory birds. Since its inception, the ARM Framework has used a single trawl survey's swept area-based population estimates of horseshoe crab relative abundance and a theoretical population model developed primarily from literature-derived values. With more data collected in the region in recent years and other sources of mortality that can now be quantified, a catch survey model can provide horseshoe crab population estimates going forward. Methods A CMSA was used to estimate male and female horseshoe crab population size for 2003–2021 using all quantifiable sources of mortality and three fishery-independent indices of abundance. Result The CMSA results indicated that adult abundance of male and female horseshoe crabs was stable from 2003 to 2013 and then began to increase through 2017, a result that is consistent with stock rebuilding following a period of harvest restrictions as recommended by the ARM Framework. Population estimates were lower in recent years but remained above the levels estimated before implementation of the ARM Framework. In 2021, the CMSA estimated that there were over 6 million mature females and nearly 16 million mature male horseshoe crabs in the region. Conclusion The CMSA provides the best and most comprehensive population estimates of horseshoe crabs in Delaware Bay and will improve modeling efforts within the ARM Framework going forward.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey↗
USGS2017

Using CO 2 Prophet to estimate recovery factors for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

Introduction The Oil and Gas Journal’s enhanced oil recovery (EOR) survey for 2014 (Koottungal, 2014) showed that gas injection is the most frequently applied method of EOR in the United States and that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most commonly used injection fluid for miscible operations. The CO 2 -EOR process typically follows primary and secondary (waterflood) phases of oil reservoir development. The common objective of implementing a CO 2 -EOR program is to produce oil that remains after the economic limit of waterflood recovery is reached. Under conditions of miscibility or multicontact miscibility, the injected CO 2 partitions between the gas and liquid CO2 phases, swells the oil, and reduces the viscosity of the residual oil so that the lighter fractions of the oil vaporize and mix with the CO 2 gas phase (Teletzke and others, 2005). Miscibility occurs when the reservoir pressure is at least at the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP). The MMP depends, in turn, on oil composition, impurities of the CO 2 injection stream, and reservoir temperature. At pressures below the MMP, component partitioning, oil swelling, and viscosity reduction occur, but the efficiency is increasingly reduced as the pressure falls farther below the MMP. CO 2 -EOR processes are applied at the reservoir level, where a reservoir is defined as an underground formation containing an individual and separate pool of producible hydrocarbons that is confined by impermeable rock or water barriers and is characterized by a single natural pressure system. A field may consist of a single reservoir or multiple reservoirs that are not in communication but which may be associated with or related to a single structural or stratigraphic feature (U.S. Energy Information Administration [EIA], 2000). The purpose of modeling the CO 2 -EOR process is discussed along with the potential CO 2 -EOR predictive models. The data demands of models and the scope of the assessments require tradeoffs between reservoir-specific data that can be assembled and simplifying assumptions that allow assignment of default values for some reservoir parameters. These issues are discussed in the context of the CO 2 Prophet EOR model, and their resolution is demonstrated with the computation of recovery-factor estimates for CO 2 -EOR of 143 reservoirs in the Powder River Basin Province in southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Assessing the risk of nitrogen deposition to natural resources in the Four Corners area

Nitrogen (N) deposition in the western U.S. is on the rise and is already dramatically affecting terrestrial ecosystems. For example, N deposition has repeatedly been shown to lower air and water quality, increase greenhouse gas emissions, alter plant community composition, and significantly modify fire regimes. Accordingly, the effects of N deposition represent one of our largest environmental challenges and make difficult the National Park Service’s (NPS) important mission to “preserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wildlife… unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations”. Due to increased population growth and energy development (e.g., natural gas wells), the Four Corners region has become a notable ‘hotspot’ for N deposition. However, our understanding of how increased N deposition will affect these unique ecosystems, as well as how much deposition is actually occurring, remains notably poor. Here we used a multi-disciplinary approach to gathering information in an effort to help NPS safeguard the Four Corners national parks, both now and into the future. We applied modeling, field, and laboratory techniques to clarify current N deposition gradients and to help elucidate the ecosystem consequences of N deposition to the national parks of the Four Corners area. Our results suggest that NOx deposition does indeed represent a significant source of N to Mesa Verde National Park and, as expected, N deposition significantly affects coupled biogeochemical cycling (N, carbon, and phosphorus) of these landscapes. We also found some surprising results. For example, perhaps due to the low nutrient availability in these (and other) dryland ecosystems, although most other research suggests that adding N reduces N fixation rates, N additions did not consistently reduce natural N inputs via biological N2 fixation at our dryland sites. While the timeline of this pilot project is too brief to elucidate all the potential insight from the approach utilized here (e.g., we have fertilization plots to explore how N deposition affects Bromus tectorum invasion that will surely yield provoking results), we plan to continue this exciting line of questioning and expect further insight to be forthcoming.

Arches National Park, Canyonland National Park, Me↗
USGS2003

Atomic weights of the elements. Review 2000 (IUPAC Technical Report)

A consistent set of internationally accepted atomic weights has long been an essential aim of the scientific community because of the relevance of these values to science and technology, as well as to trade and commerce subject to ethical, legal, and international standards. The standard atomic weights of the elements are regularly evaluated, recommended, and published in updated tables by the Commission on Atomic Weights and Isotopic Abundances (CAWIA) of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC). These values are invariably associated with carefully evaluated uncertainties. Atomic weights were originally determined by mass ratio measurements coupled with an understanding of chemical stoichiometry, but are now based almost exclusively on knowledge of the isotopic composition (derived from isotope-abundance ratio measurements) and the atomic masses of the isotopes of the elements. Atomic weights and atomic masses are now scaled to a numerical value of exactly 12 for the mass of the carbon isotope of mass number 12. Technological advances in mass spectrometry and nuclear-reaction energies have enabled atomic masses to be determined with a relative uncertainty of better than 1 ×10−7 . Isotope abundances for an increasing number of elements can be measured to better than 1 ×10−3 . The excellent precision of such measurements led to the discovery that many elements, in different specimens, display significant variations in their isotope-abundance ratios, caused by a variety of natural and industrial physicochemical processes. While such variations increasingly place a constraint on the uncertainties with which some standard atomic weights can be stated, they provide numerous opportunities for investigating a range of important phenomena in physical, chemical, cosmological, biological, and industrial processes. This review reflects the current and increasing interest of science in the measured differences between source-specific and even sample-specific atomic weights. These relative comparisons can often be made with a smaller uncertainty than is achieved in the best calibrated “absolute ” (=SI-traceable) atomic-weight determinations. Accurate determinations of the atomic weights of certain elements also influence the values of fundamental constants such as the Avogadro, Faraday, and universal gas constants. This review is in two parts: the first summarizes the development of the science of atomic-weight determinations during the 20th century; the second summarizes the changes and variations that have been recognized in the values and uncertainties of atomic weights, on an element-by-element basis, in the latter part of the 20th century.

Pure and Applied Chemistry↗
USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator—A decision-support tool to estimate water availability at ungaged stream locations in Connecticut

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow. Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site. In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent. An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series. The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

Connecticut↗
USGS2008

Wave climate, sediment supply and the depth of the sand-mud transition: A global survey

The influences of wave climate and sediment supply on the depths of sand-mud transitions (hSMT) are investigated. Depths of sand-mud transitions (SMT) are based on published granulometric data from surface samples gathered from 14 sites in different wave-dominated coastal environments with fluvial input, including high energy (Columbia, Eel, Russian, San Lorenzo, Copper, and Nepean rivers), moderate energy (Ebro, Nile, Santa Clara, Tseng-wen and Kao-ping rivers), and low energy (Po, Pescara and Tronto rivers) regimes. Geometric mean diameter (GMD) and mud percent are compiled from samples along shore-normal transects, and significant correlation is found between these two textural descriptors. Nominally, the SMT is defined as the transition from GMD > 63????m to < 63????m. The correlation between mud percent and GMD permits an alternative, complementary definition of the SMT as the transition from < 25% mud to > 25% mud. This dual definition is applied to the 14 systems, and hSMT is tabulated for each system. Correlation is found between hSMT and the depth at which wave-induced bottom shear stress equals the critical erosion shear stress of the largest mud particles and also between hSMT and significant wave height. Lack of correlation between hSMT and sediment load of nearby rivers indicates either that the influence of sediment supply on depth of the sand-mud transition is small or is not adequately represented in this study. Shelf width and slope do not correlate with residuals from a formalized linear relationship between hSMT and significant wave height. The relationship between hSMT and wave climate is useful for calibration of numerical models of erosion and deposition in wave-dominated coastal environments, for prediction of seabed properties in remote or inaccessible areas, and for reconstruction of paleodepth based on facies changes from sand to mud in ancient rocks. ?? 2008.

Marine Geology↗
USGS2006

Relative coastal change-potential assessment of Kenai Fjords National Park

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative coastal change-potential of the shoreline to future sea-level changes within Kenai Fjords National Park (KEFJ) in south-central Alaska. The CPI ranks the following parameters in terms of their physical contribution to coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level change, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level and coastal changes might be the greatest. This multi-parametric approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of sea-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI was developed from a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) typically applied to coastlines undergoing long-term sea-level rise. The CPI is modified from the CVI and applied to the emergent coast of Kenai Fjords National Park to understand the limits of applying this type of assessment method in a variety of sea-level settings. Kenai Fjords National Park consists of sand and gravel beaches, rock cliffs, calving tidewater glaciers, mudflats, and alluvial fans. The areas within Kenai Fjords National Park that are likely to be most susceptible to coastal change as a result of sea-level change are tidewater glaciers and outer coast shorelines of unconsolidated sediment where shoreline erosion potential is high and wave energy is high.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Dynamic hyporheic exchange at intermediate timescales: testing the relative importance of evapotranspiration and flood pulses

Hyporheic fluxes influence ecological processes across a continuum of timescales. However, few studies have been able to characterize hyporheic fluxes and residence time distributions (RTDs) over timescales of days to years, during which evapotranspiration (ET) and seasonal flood pulses create unsteady forcing. Here we present a data-driven, particle-tracking piston model that characterizes hyporheic fluxes and RTDs based on measured vertical head differences. We used the model to test the relative influence of ET and seasonal flood pulses in the Everglades (FL, USA), in a manner applicable to other low-energy floodplains or broad, shallow streams. We found that over the multiyear timescale, flood pulses that drive relatively deep (∼1 m) flow paths had the dominant influence on hyporheic fluxes and residence times but that ET effects were discernible at shorter timescales (weeks to months) as a break in RTDs. Cumulative RTDs on either side of the break were generally well represented by lognormal functions, except for when ET was strong and none of the standard distributions applied to the shorter timescale. At the monthly timescale, ET increased hyporheic fluxes by 1–2 orders of magnitude; it also decreased 6 year mean residence times by 53–87%. Long, slow flow paths driven by flood pulses increased 6 year hyporheic fluxes by another 1–2 orders of magnitude, to a level comparable to that induced over the short term by shear flow in streams. Results suggest that models of intermediate-timescale processes should include at least two-storage zones with different RTDs, and that supporting field data collection occur over 3–4 years.

Florida↗