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Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon

What is a picture worth? A history of remote sensing

Remote sensing is the use of electromagnetic energy to measure the physical properties of distant objects. It includes photography and geophysical surveying as well as newer techniques that use other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The history of remote sensing begins with photography. The origin of other types of remote sensing can be traced to World War II, with the development of radar, sonar, and thermal infrared detection systems. Since the 1960s, sensors have been designed to operate in virtually all of the electromagnetic spectrum. Today a wide variety of remote sensing instruments are available for use in hydrological studies; satellite data, such as Skylab photographs and Landsat images are particularly suitable for regional problems and studies. Planned future satellites will provide a ground resolution of 10–80 m. Remote sensing is currently used for hydrological applications in most countries of the world. The range of applications includes groundwater exploration determination of physical water quality, snowfield mapping, flood-inundation delineation, and making inventories of irrigated land. The use of remote sensing commonly results in considerable hydrological information at minimal cost. This information can be used to speed-up the development of water resources, to improve management practices, and to monitor environmental problems.

Hydrological Sciences Bulletin

Gilbert White talks about natural hazards

Dr. Gilbert White is Director of the Institute of Behavioral Science at the University of Colorado, Boulder, where he is responsible for natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center supported by the National Science Foundation. He served in the Executive Office of the president in 1941-42, on the Federal Flood Control Policy Task Force in 1964-65, and on the U.S Geological Survey Advisory Panel on Earthquake Studies. Dr. White has authored five books on the social and economic aspects of natural resources, including water supply and river development, and on floods and other natural hazards.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to June 30, 1980, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 1966 of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 31, 1974, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 31, 1971, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers, Montana, 1928-2002

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Yellowstone River in Montana intensified public debate over the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a cumulative-effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative-effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions in the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency and flow-duration data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions that might have occurred during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period. Peak-flow frequency estimates for regulated and unregulated streamflow were developed using methods described in Bulletin 17B. High-flow frequency and low-flow frequency data were developed for regulated and unregulated streamflows from the annual series of highest and lowest (respectively) mean flows for specified n-day consecutive periods within the calendar year. Flow-duration data, and monthly and annual streamflow characteristics, also were calculated for the unregulated and regulated streamflows.

Montana;North Dakota;Wyoming

Data-based comparisons of moments estimators using historical and paleoflood data

This paper presents the first systematic comparison, using historical and paleoflood data, of moments-based flood frequency methods. Peak flow estimates were compiled from streamflow-gaging stations with historical and/or paleoflood data at 36 sites located in the United States, Argentina, United Kingdom and China, covering a diverse range of hydrologic conditions. The Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) and the Bulletin 17B historical weighting procedure (B17H) were compared in terms of goodness of fit using 25 of the data sets. Results from this comparison indicate that EMA is a viable alternative to current B17H procedures from an operational perspective, and performed equal to or better than B17H for the data analyzed. We demonstrate satisfactory EMA performance for the remaining 11 sites with multiple thresholds and binomial censoring, which B17H cannot accommodate. It is shown that the EMA estimator readily incorporates these types of information and the LP-III distribution provided an adequate fit to the data in most cases. The results shown here are consistent with Monte Carlo simulation studies, and demonstrate that EMA is preferred overall to B17H. The Bulletin 17B document could be revised to include an option for EMA as an alternative to the existing historical weighting approach. These results are of practical relevance to hydrologists and water resources managers for applications in floodplain management, design of hydraulic structures, and risk analysis for dams. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology