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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Late Jurassic – early Cretaceous inversion of rift structures, and linkage of petroleum system elements across post-rift unconformity, U.S. Chukchi Shelf, arctic Alaska

Basin evolution of the U.S. Chukchi shelf involved multiple phases, including Late Devonian–Permian rifting, Permian–Early Jurassic sagging, Late Jurassic–Neocomian inversion, and Cretaceous–Cenozoic foreland-basin development. The focus of ongoing exploration is a petroleum system that includes sag-phase source rocks; inversion-phase reservoir rocks; structure spanning the rift, sag, and inversion phases; and hydrocarbon generation during the foreland-basin phase. Interpretation of 2-D seismic and sparse well data documents the presence, in the south-central part of the shelf, of a series of en-echelon, north-south trending monoclonal fold limbs that display up to 1+ km (3,300 ft) of structural relief. These folds, which are located above the tips of rift-phase normal faults, are interpreted as inversion structures formed by maximum compressive stress oriented obliquely to the strike of rift-phase normal faults. Erosional relief on a Jurassic unconformity, growth strata in the overlying Upper Jurassic to Neocomian strata, and east-dipping clinoforms in a high accommodation depocenter east of the inversion structures indicate profound structural influence on sedimentation. Oil-prone source rocks, reservoir-quality sandstone, migration pathways, and structural closure are linked intimately across the Jurassic unconformity, which reflects inversion. Thus, all these key petroleum systems elements were in place when Triassic source rocks entered the oil generation window during Cretaceous–Cenozoic stratigraphic burial.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Impacts of grade control structure installations on hydrology and sediment transport as an adaptive management strategy

The goal of this research was to examine the impacts of Grade Control Structure (GCS) installations at the Heard Scout Pueblo (HSP) study site in the City of Phoenix, Arizona, USA. The study site is around a high-use trail system and is comprised of eroded and incised channels that conduct high flows and associated sediments into a residential neighborhood downstream, a noted stormwater control problem. We established baseline conditions associated with rainfall/runoff response before structures were installed so we could have some data for comparison afterwards. Innovative monitoring equipment, including video cameras and pressure transducers (to calculate discharge); digital terrain models, sediment samplers and sediment chains (to measure erosion and deposition); soil moisture sensors in monitoring wells (to document infiltration and potential recharge); and weather stations (to track temperature and relative humidity) were established and a small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) survey was completed by July, 11, 2017, in time for the typical summer monsoon season which officially runs from June 15th to September 30th. Only one pre-GCS installation rain event incurred a significant flow event (October 13, 2018). Natural Channel Design (NCD), a landscape restoration company with decades of experience, was hired through a competitive bid process to develop a novel layout of ~30 GCS installations (sills, modified one-rock dams (ORD), and plugs, as well as a modified Zuni-bowl). The American Conservation Experience (ACE) hand-built the structures based on these designs in the main channel from November 13, 2018 through December 1, 2018. ACE built another ten structures in locations adjacent to the channel from January 15 through January 18, 2019. NCD worked with the landscape forensics to identify a historic channel and reinstate it using GCS. A surface-water model was also applied, using some of the baseline measurements (terrain and hydraulic conductivity) to track the flows of water and potential infiltration associated with rainfall events before GCS installation, to assist NCD in their design. The same model was applied using the installed GCS locations to simulate impacts of the structures on flow and infiltration. Our model was able to predict the slight reduction and delay in peak flows for small events and simulate infiltration, which was measured and occurred in the channel. Results demonstrated that structures could increase infiltration by ~15% over time. More data describing geomorphology and hydrology after repeated rainfall events will allow for increased analyses. Innovative monitoring, including the large‐scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) were invaluable to this research. Given the arid-land location and added drought conditions, the water levels were not high enough to compute, even using the continuous slope-area method, so discharge was calculated solely using the LSPIV. The careful redundancy of data acquisition is extremely important when studying dryland hydrology. Weather data indicated that the HSP GCS installations created roughly a three-degree microclimate cooling effect for at least two days following rainfall events, as compared with the untreated channel. The cooling was attributed to increased moisture, evaporation, and latent heat expulsion from the evaporation.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Detrending Great Basin elevation to identify structural patterns for identifying geothermal favorability

Topography provides information about the structural controls of the Great Basin and therefore information that may be used to identify favorable structural settings for geothermal systems. The Nevada Machine Learning Project (NVML) tested the use of a digital elevation map (DEM) of topography as an input feature to predict geothermal system favorability. A recent study re-examines the NVML data, identifying the DEM as the most important feature, showing a broad uniform pattern of high-favorability in the lower-elevation west and low-favorability in the higher elevation east of their study area in north-central Nevada. This regional elevation trend conflicts with the geologic notion that local relative topography should be used to identify geologic structures associated with favorable structural settings for hydrothermal upflow. Specifically, local relative topography gives information about position in the mountains, in the valleys, or at the transitions between, aiding in identification of faults and fault intersections. As part of U.S. Geological Survey efforts to engineer features that are useful for predicting geothermal resources, we construct a detrended elevation map that emphasizes local relative topography and highlights features that geologists use for identifying geothermal systems (i.e., providing machine learning algorithms with features that may improve predictive skill by emphasizing the information used by geologists). Herein, we describe the removal of the regional trend in elevation to emphasize the basin-and-range scale structural features, creating detrended elevation maps. Regional elevation trends were estimated using a local linear regression and subtracted from the actual elevation using a 30-m DEM. In an effort to optimize the detrended surface, alternate versions were produced with different rates of smoothness resulting in three detrended elevation maps. The resulting elevation trend surfaces (a proxy for crustal thickness) are compared with conductive heat flow maps, and a general pattern was observed of a negative correlation between heat flow and regional elevation in many areas, indicating that thinner crust may be causing elevated heat flow in some areas and thicker crust may cause the observed heat flow lows. Because these detrended elevation maps emphasize geologic structure and relative displacement, these products may also be useful for other geologic research including mineral exploration, hydrologic research, and defining geologic provinces.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗

USGS2007

Does amplitude scaling of ground motion records result in biased nonlinear structural drift responses?

Limitations of the existing earthquake ground motion database lead to scaling of records to obtain seismograms consistent with a ground motion target for structural design and evaluation. In the engineering seismology community, acceptable limits for 'legitimate' scaling vary from one (no scaling allowed) to 10 or more. The concerns expressed by detractors of scaling are mostly based on the knowledge of, for example, differences in ground motion characteristics for different earthquake magnitude-distance (Mw-Rclose) scenarios, and much less on their effects on structures. At the other end of the spectrum, proponents have demonstrated that scaling is not only legitimate but also useful for assessing structural response statistics for Mw-Rclose scenarios. Their studies, however, have not investigated more recent purposes of scaling and have not always drawn conclusions for a wide spectrum of structural vibration periods and strengths. This article investigates whether scaling of records randomly selected from an Mw-Rclose bin (or range) to a target fundamental-mode spectral acceleration (Sa) level introduces bias in the expected nonlinear structural drift response of both single-degree-of-freedom oscillators and one multi-degree-of-freedom building. The bias is quantified relative to unscaled records from the target Mw-Rclose bin that are 'naturally' at the target Sa level. We consider scaling of records from the target Mw-Rclose bin and from other Mw-Rclose bins. The results demonstrate that scaling can indeed introduce a bias that, for the most part, ca be explained by differences between the elastic response spectra of the scaled versus unscaled records. Copyright ?? 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics↗

USGS2015

Blind identification of the Millikan Library from earthquake data considering soil–structure interaction

The Robert A. Millikan Library is a reinforced concrete building with a basement level and nine stories above the ground. Located on the campus of California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena California, it is among the most densely instrumented buildings in the U.S. From the early dates of its construction, it has been the subject of many investigations, especially regarding soil–structure interaction effects. It is well accepted that the structure is significantly interacting with the surrounding soil, which implies that the true foundation input motions cannot be directly recorded during earthquakes because of inertial effects. Based on this limitation, input–output modal identification methods are not applicable to this soil–structure system. On the other hand, conventional output-only methods are typically based on the unknown input signals to be stationary whitenoise, which is not the case for earthquake excitations. Through the use of recently developed blind identification (i.e. output-only) methods, it has become possible to extract such information from only the response signals because of earthquake excitations. In the present study, we employ such a blind identification method to extract the modal properties of the Millikan Library. We present some modes that have not been identified from force vibration tests in several studies to date. Then, to quantify the contribution of soil–structure interaction effects, we first create a detailed Finite Element (FE) model using available information about the superstructure; and subsequently update the soil–foundation system's dynamic stiffnesses at each mode such that the modal properties of the entire soil–structure system agree well with those obtained via output-only modal identification.

California↗

USGS2015

Crustal stress and structure at Kīlauea Volcano inferred from seismic anisotropy

Seismic anisotropy, measured through shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis, can be indicative of the state of stress in Earth's crust. Changes in SWS at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, associated with the onset of summit eruptive activity in 2008 hint at the potential of the technique for tracking volcanic activity. To use SWS observations as a monitoring tool, however, it is important to understand the cause of seismic anisotropy at the volcano throughout the eruptive cycle. To address this need, we analyzed SWS results from across Kīlauea in combination with macroscopic surface structures (mapped fractures, faults, and fissures) and stress orientations inferred from fault plane solutions. Seismic anisotropy seems to be due to pervasive aligned structures in most regions of the volcano. The upper East and Southwest Rift Zones, however, show a bimodality in stress and SWS, suggesting a stress discontinuity with depth, perhaps related to magma conduits that trend obliquely to the dominant structure. Other areas in and around Kīlauea Caldera display principal stresses of similar magnitudes, indicating that small stress perturbations can rotate the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction by up to 90 ° . In these locations, static structures generally control SWS, but dynamic conditions due to magmatic activity can override the structural control. Monitoring of SWS may therefore provide important signs of impending volcanism.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Genetic analysis of harvest samples reveals population structure in a highly mobile generalist carnivore

Delineating wildlife population boundaries is important for effective population monitoring and management. The bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) is a highly mobile generalist carnivore that is ecologically and economically important. We sampled 1225 bobcats harvested in South Dakota, USA (2014–2019), of which 878 were retained to assess genetic diversity and infer population genetic structure using 17 microsatellite loci. We assigned individuals to genetic clusters ( K ) using spatial and nonspatial Bayesian clustering algorithms and quantified differentiation ( F ST and GST″ ) among clusters. We found support for population genetic structure at K = 2 and K = 4, with pairwise F ST and GST″ values indicating weak to moderate differentiation, respectively, among clusters. For K = 2, eastern and western clusters aligned closely with historical bobcat management units and were consistent with a longitudinal suture zone for bobcats previously identified in the Great Plains. We did not observe patterns of population genetic structure aligning with major rivers or highways. Genetic divergence observed at K = 4 aligned roughly with ecoregion breaks and may be associated with environmental gradients, but additional sampling with more precise locational data may be necessary to validate these patterns. Our findings reveal that cryptic population structure may occur in highly mobile and broadly distributed generalist carnivores, highlighting the importance of considering population structure when establishing population monitoring programs or harvest regulations. Our study further demonstrates that for elusive furbearers, harvest can provide an efficient, broad-scale sampling approach for genetic population assessments.

South Dakota↗

USGS2015

Evaluating the importance of characterizing soil structure and horizons in parameterizing a hydrologic process model

Incorporating the influence of soil structure and horizons into parameterizations of distributed surface water/groundwater models remains a challenge. Often, only a single soil unit is employed, and soil-hydraulic properties are assigned based on textural classification, without evaluating the potential impact of these simplifications. This study uses a distributed physics-based model to assess the influence of soil horizons and structure on effective parameterization. This paper tests the viability of two established and widely used hydrogeologic methods for simulating runoff and variably saturated flow through layered soils: (1) accounting for vertical heterogeneity by combining hydrostratigraphic units with contrasting hydraulic properties into homogeneous, anisotropic units and (2) use of established pedotransfer functions based on soil texture alone to estimate water retention and conductivity, without accounting for the influence of pedon structures and hysteresis. The viability of this latter method for capturing the seasonal transition from runoff-dominated to evapotranspiration-dominated regimes is also tested here. For cases tested here, event-based simulations using simplified vertical heterogeneity did not capture the state-dependent anisotropy and complex combinations of runoff generation mechanisms resulting from permeability contrasts in layered hillslopes with complex topography. Continuous simulations using pedotransfer functions that do not account for the influence of soil structure and hysteresis generally over-predicted runoff, leading to propagation of substantial water balance errors. Analysis suggests that identifying a dominant hydropedological unit provides the most acceptable simplification of subsurface layering and that modified pedotransfer functions with steeper soil-water retention curves might adequately capture the influence of soil structure and hysteresis on hydrologic response in headwater catchments.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2020

Influence of population density and length structure on angler catch rate in kokanee fisheries

Management agencies are often charged with providing fisheries that lead to angler participation. Catch rate is one of the primary drivers of angler participation but can be influenced by a suite of factors, including population structure (e.g., density and size structure). The complexity of understanding how population structure influences angler catch rate is typified in kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka fisheries. Previous research suggests that angler catch rates of kokanee are positively influenced by fish density and total length. However, that research was based on data collected using size-selective midwater trawls. Due to the potential limitation of previous research, we sought to (1) understand the relative bias of midwater trawls and gill nets for describing the size structure of kokanee available to anglers and (2) re-evaluate the influence of fish density and fish length on angler catch rates in kokanee fisheries. Midwater trawl, gill-net, and creel data were collected on five prominent kokanee fisheries throughout Idaho in 2016 and 2017. Catch composition and percent overlap of midwater trawls, gill nets, and angler-caught fish were compared to understand the efficacy of midwater trawls and gill nets for representing the size structure of kokanee available to anglers. In addition, the influence of kokanee density and length on angler catch rates was evaluated. Midwater trawls primarily sampled small kokanee (<330 mm) and exhibited little overlap with angler-caught fish, whereas gill nets sampled more large fish (>330 mm) and exhibited higher overlap with angler-caught fish when compared to midwater trawls. Fish length was not positively associated with angler catch rates. However, fish density exhibited a positive relationship with angler catch rates. Our results highlight the importance of gear choice for understanding how kokanee populations function and elucidate the tradeoffs associated with population density, fish length, and resulting kokanee fisheries.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Fish assemblage structure and habitat associations in a large western river system

Longitudinal gradients of fish assemblage and habitat structure were investigated in the Kootenai River of northern Idaho. A total of 43 500-m river reaches was sampled repeatedly with several techniques (boat-mounted electrofishing, hoop nets and benthic trawls) in the summers of 2012 and 2013. Differences in habitat and fish assemblage structure were apparent along the longitudinal gradient of the Kootenai River. Habitat characteristics (e.g. depth, substrate composition and water velocity) were related to fish assemblage structure in three different geomorphic river sections. Upper river sections were characterized by native salmonids (e.g. mountain whitefish Prosopium williamsoni ), whereas native cyprinids (peamouth Mylocheilus caurinus , northern pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis ) and non-native fishes (pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus , yellow perch Perca flavescens ) were common in the downstream section. Overall, a general pattern of species addition from upstream to downstream sections was discovered and is likely related to increased habitat complexity and additions of non-native species in downstream sections. Assemblage structure of the upper sections were similar, but were both dissimilar to the lower section of the Kootenai River. Species-specific hurdle regressions indicated the relationships among habitat characteristics and the predicted probability of occurrence and relative abundance varied by species. Understanding fish assemblage structure in relation to habitat could improve conservation efforts of rare fishes and improve management of coldwater river systems.

Idaho↗

USGS2020

RAD-seq refines previous estimates of genetic structure in Lake Erie walleye

Delineating population structure helps fishery managers to maintain a diverse “portfolio” of local spawning populations (stocks), as well as facilitate stock-specific management. In Lake Erie, commercial and recreational fisheries for Walleye Sander vitreus exploit numerous local spawning populations, which cannot be easily differentiated using traditional genetic data (e.g., microsatellites). Here, we used genomic information (12,264 polymorphic loci) generated using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to investigate stock structure in Lake Erie Walleye. We found low genetic divergence (genetic differentiation index F ST = 0.0006–0.0019) among the four Lake Erie western basin stocks examined, which resulted in low classification accuracies for individual samples (40–60%). However, more structure existed between western and eastern Lake Erie basin stocks ( F ST = 0.0042–0.0064), resulting in greater than 95% classification accuracy of samples to a lake basin. Thus, our success in using genomics to identify stock structure varied with spatial scale. Based on our results, we offer suggestions to improve the efficacy of this new genetic tool for refining stock structure and eventually determining relative stock contributions in Lake Erie Walleye and other Great Lakes populations.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Ontario, Pennsylvania↗

USGS1977

A crystal-chemical classification of borate structures with emphasis on hydrated borates

The rules governing formation of hydrated borate polyanions that were proposed by C.L. Christ in 1960 are critically reviewed and new rules added on the basis of recent crystal structure determinations. Principles and classifications previously published by others are also critically reviewed briefly. The fundamental building blocks from which borate polyanions can be constructed are defined on the basis of the number n of boron atoms, and the fully hydrated polyanions are illustrated. Known structures are grouped accordingly, and a shorthand notation using n and symbols ?? = triangle, T = tetrahedron is introduced so that the polyanions can be easily characterized. For example, 3:??+2T describes [B3O3(OH)5]2-. Correct structural formulas are assigned borates with known structures whereas borates of unknown structure are grouped separately. ?? 1977 Springer-Verlag.

Physics and Chemistry of Minerals↗

USGS2017

Temporal genetic population structure and interannual variation in migration behavior of Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus

Studies using neutral loci suggest that Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus , lack strong spatial genetic population structure. However, it is unknown whether temporal genetic population structure exists. We tested whether adult Pacific lamprey: (1) show temporal genetic population structure; and (2) migrate different distances between years. We non-lethally sampled lamprey for DNA in 2009 and 2010 and used eight microsatellite loci to test for genetic population structure. We used telemetry to record the migration behaviors of these fish. Lamprey were assignable to three moderately differentiated genetic clusters ( F ST = 0.16–0.24 for all pairwise comparisons): one cluster was composed of individuals from 2009, and the other two contained individuals from 2010. The F ST value between years was 0.13 and between genetic clusters within 2010 was 0.20. A total of 372 (72.5%) fish were detected multiple times during their migrations. Most fish (69.9%) remained in the mainstem Willamette River; the remaining 30.1% migrated into tributaries. Eighty-two lamprey exhibited multiple back-and-forth movements among tributaries and the mainstem, which may indicate searching behaviors. All migration distances were significantly greater in 2010, when the amplitude of river discharge was greater. Our data suggest genetic structuring between and within years that may reflect different cohorts.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Predicting bird guilds using vegetation composition and structure on a wild and scenic river in Arizona

Riparian areas are among the most ecologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems but make up <2% of landscape area in southwestern USA. Many species of resident and neotropical migratory birds utilize riparian habitats for breeding, foraging, and nesting. We quantified vegetation composition and structure to predict bird guilds on Wild and Scenic portions of the Verde River, Arizona. We grouped plant species into guilds based on similar functional traits to describe composition. We surveyed birds during the breeding and migrating season to determine abundance and categorized species into guilds using preferences of breeding habitat, foraging substrate, and nest placement. Riparian obligate and facultative breeding guilds were most common. Both vegetation composition and structure were useful predictors of birds. Vegetation structure was most complex in gallery riparian forest. Abundance of riparian-obligate birds in the breeding guild were positively associated with vegetation structure of dense, multi-canopy canopy and tall trees. Abundance of most bird guilds were positively associated with composition of tall trees ( Populus fremontii , Salix gooddingii ) and drought tolerant shrubs ( Prosopis velutina, Celtis reticulata ). Our findings show complex riparian habitat important to wildlife is created by both composition and structure of near-stream vegetation that is tied to hydrology and sensitive to flow change.

Arizona↗

USGS1960

The crystal structure of cesium biuranyl trisulphate, Cs2(UO2)2(SO4)3

The crystal structure of the new compound Cs(UO 2 ) 2 (SO 4 ) 3 has been determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The compound is tetragonal, space group P 4 2 1 m "> P42 1 m ( D 2 d 3 ), with a = 9·62 ± 0·02, c = 8·13 ± 0·01 A ̊ "> c = 8·13 ± 0·01Å , and Z = 2; s.g. (calc.) = 4·80 ± 0·03, s.g. (obs.) = 4·74 ± 0·05. The compound forms plates parallel to (001) bounded by the form (110). Intensity data were obtained from Buerger precession photographs of the ( hk 0) and (0 kl ) reciprocal lattice nets. No corrections for absorption were made. The co-ordinates of the U and Cs atoms were obtained by interpretation of the Patterson projections normal to (001) and (100) and a plausible structure was derived from electron density projections. The final parameters of the structure were determined from subtraction electron density maps, least squares analysis of the structure factors, and spatial considerations. The compound has a layer structure consisting of (UO 2 ) 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ] n 2 n − sheets paralle to (001), tied together by cesium ions. The UO 2 2+ group is co-ordinated by five sulphate oxygens which form a nearly plane pentagon approximately normal to the uranyl axis. The Cs 2 atom is co-ordinated by twelve oxygen atoms and the Cs 1 atom by eight oxygen atoms. X-ray and optical data are also given for the compound Rb 2 UO 2 (SO 4 ) 2 ·2H 2 O.

Journal of Inorganic and Nuclear Chemistry↗

USGS2008

Faunal impact on vegetation structure and ecosystem function in mangrove forests: A review

The last 20 years witnessed a real paradigm shift concerning the impact of biotic factors on ecosystem functions as well as on vegetation structure of mangrove forests. Before this small scientific revolution took place, structural aspects of mangrove forests were viewed to be the result of abiotic processes acting from the bottom-up, while, at ecosystem level, the outwelling hypothesis stated that mangroves primary production was removed via tidal action and carried to adjacent nearshore ecosystems where it fuelled detrital based food-webs. The sesarmid crabs were the first macrofaunal taxon to be considered a main actor in mangrove structuring processes, thanks to a number of studies carried out in the Indo-Pacific forests in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Following these classical papers, a number of studies on Sesarmidae feeding and burrowing ecology were carried out, which leave no doubts about the great importance of these herbivorous crabs in structuring and functioning Old world ecosystems. Although Sesarmidae are still considered very important in shaping mangrove structure and functioning, recent literature emphasizes the significance of other invertebrates. The Ocypodidae have now been shown to have the same role as Sesarmidae in terms of retention of forest products and organic matter processing in New world mangroves. In both New and Old world mangroves, crabs process large amounts of algal primary production, contribute consistently to retention of mangrove production and as ecosystem engineers, change particle size distribution and enhance soil aeration. Our understanding of the strong impact of gastropods, by means of high intake rates of mangrove products and differential consumption of propagules, has changed only recently. The role of insects must also be stressed. It is now clear that older techniques used to assess herbivory rates by insects strongly underestimate their impact, both in case of leaf eating and wood boring species and that herbivorous insects can potentially play a strong role in many aspects of mangrove ecology. Moreover, researchers only recently realized that ant–plant interactions may form an important contribution to our understanding of insect–plant dynamics in these habitats. Ants seem to be able to relieve mangroves from important herbivores such as many insects and sesarmid crabs. It thus seems likely that ants have positive effects on mangrove performance.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2009

Sensitivity of system stability to model structure

A community is stable, and resilient, if the levels of all community variables can return to the original steady state following a perturbation. The stability properties of a community depend on its structure, which is the network of direct effects (interactions) among the variables within the community. These direct effects form feedback cycles (loops) that determine community stability. Although feedback cycles have an intuitive interpretation, identifying how they form the feedback properties of a particular community can be intractable. Furthermore, determining the role that any specific direct effect plays in the stability of a system is even more daunting. Such information, however, would identify important direct effects for targeted experimental and management manipulation even in complex communities for which quantitative information is lacking. We therefore provide a method that determines the sensitivity of community stability to model structure, and identifies the relative role of particular direct effects, indirect effects, and feedback cycles in determining stability. Structural sensitivities summarize the degree to which each direct effect contributes to stabilizing feedback or destabilizing feedback or both. Structural sensitivities prove useful in identifying ecologically important feedback cycles within the community structure and for detecting direct effects that have strong, or weak, influences on community stability. The approach may guide the development of management intervention and research design. We demonstrate its value with two theoretical models and two empirical examples of different levels of complexity. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2021

Space matters: Host spatial structure and the dynamics of plague transmission

The development of models to elucidate the transmission pathways and dynamics of wildlife diseases remains challenging. Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis ( Yp ), is an infectious zoonotic disease that primarily affects wild rodents, including prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) in North America. Proposed transmission pathways for Yp include flea bites, direct contacts between hosts, and environmental reservoirs (e.g. soil, carcasses). We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of Yp transmission to explore the effects of alternative transmission pathways, different disease initiation mechanisms (host or fleas), parameter uncertainty, and spatial structure of hosts. A particularly novel aspect of our model was the integration of ecological models with traditional disease models. Specifically, we used estimates from spatial capture-recapture models to generate data-driven spatial distributions, densities, and contact rates to capture the spatial structure of prairie dogs. We simulated ~9 million scenarios across a wide range of parameter values and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential parameters on the number of flea-days (sum of the mean number of fleas on hosts each day of the simulation), number of newly infected hosts per day, the time to depopulation (<20 prairie dogs remaining), and the proportion of the prairie dog population remaining at the end of the simulation (after 150 days). When including spatial structure, we found the probability of transmission via environmental sources of Yp (i.e. carcasses) had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in prairie dog hosts, rather than in fleas. Conversely, the mechanism of transmission by fleas to prairie dogs had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in fleas (i.e. via introduction by carnivores, a migrant prairie dog, or other mammalian host). Uncertainty in parameter estimates, particularly those related to the transmission pathways of Yp, continue to hamper efforts to realistically model plague dynamics in wild rodents. Our results elucidate the complexity of the flea-plague-prairie dog system and reiterate the importance of research on Yp transmission mechanisms to provide a full understanding of this disease. Our results also emphasize the importance of realistic estimates of spatial structure for exploring transmission dynamics of wildlife diseases and provide a framework for generating a data-driven description of spatial structure.

Ecological Modelling↗