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USGS2019

Demographic factors affecting population growth in giant gartersnakes

Demographic models provide insight into which vital rates and life stages contribute most to population growth. Integral projection models (IPMs) offer flexibility in matching model structure to a species’ demography. For many rare species, data are lacking for key vital rates, and uncertainty might dissuade researchers from attempting to build a demographic model. We present work that highlights how the implications of uncertainties and unknowns can be explored by building and analyzing alternative models. We constructed IPMs for the threatened giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) based on published studies to determine where management efforts could be targeted to have the greatest effect on population persistence and what unknowns remain for future research. Given uncertainty in the survival of snakes during their first year, and in the form of the size‐survival relationship, we modeled a range of scenarios and evaluated where models agree about factors influencing population growth and where discrepancies exist. For most scenarios, the survival of large adult females had the greatest influence on population growth, but the relative importance of juvenile versus adult somatic growth for population growth was dependent on the recruitment probability and the shape of the size‐survival function. More data on temporal variation and covariance among vital rates would improve stochastic models for the giant gartersnake. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of IPMs for studying the demography of reptiles and the value of the model‐building process for formalizing what is known and unknown about the demography of rare species. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

California↗

USGS2007

Antarctic Multibeam Bathymetry and Geophysical Data Synthesis: an on-line digital data Resource for marine geoscience research in the Southern Ocean

The Antarctic Multibeam Bathymetry and Geophysical Data Synthesis(AMBS) is a web-accessible data resource for marine geoscience research in the Southern Ocean. The primary focusisto preserve and provide public accessto multibeam bathymetry acquired during expeditions of research vesselssupported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. Since itsinception in 2003, our primary goal has been to facilitate visualization and exploration of the subsea landscape to the full detail of the original data by both specialists and non-specialists. Visualization across a widerange of map scales at high latitudesis made possible by dynamic accessto a gridded synthesisin both Polar and Mercator projections. A second goal isto support multi-disciplinary research needs by offering data discovery and visualization of numerous complementary geoscience datasets.In thisreport, we describe the design objectives and architecture of the AMBS, as well asrecent developmentsregarding data submission and delivery via Web Services

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

Electrogeochemical sampling with NEOCHIM - results of tests over buried gold deposits

Electrogeochemical extraction methods are based on the migration of ions in an electric field. Ions present in soil moisture are transported by an applied current into fluids contained in special electrodes placed on the soil. The fluids are then collected and analyzed. Extractions are governed by Faraday's and Ohm's laws and are modeled by the operation of a simple Hittord transference apparatus. Calculations show that the volume of soil sampled in an ideal electrogeochemical extraction can be orders of magnitude greater than the volumes used in more popular geochemical extraction methods, although this has not been verified experimentally. CHIM is a method of in-situ electrogeochemical extraction that was developed in the former Soviet Union and has been tested and applied internationally to exploration for buried mineral deposits. Tests carried out at the US Geological Survey (USGS) indicated that there were problems inherent in the use of CHIM technology. The cause of the problems was determined to be the diffusion of acid from the conventional electrode into the soil. The NEOCHIM electrode incorporates two compartments and a salt bridge in a design that inhibits diffusion of acid and enables the collection of anions or cations. Tests over a gold-enriched vein in Colorado and over buried, Carlin-type, disseminated gold deposits in northern Nevada show that there are similarities and differences between NEOCHIM results and those by partial extractions of soils which include simple extractions with water, dilute acids and solutions of salts used as collector fluids in the electrodes. Results of both differ from the results obtained by total chemical digestion. The results indicate that NEOCHIM responds to mineralized faults associated with disseminated gold deposits whereas partial and total chemical extraction methods do not. This suggests that faults are favored channels for the upward migration of metals and that NEOCHIM may be more effective in exploration for the deposits. It defines anomalies that are often narrow and intense, an observation previously made by CHIM researchers. The field tests show that NEOCHIM is less affected by surface contamination. A test over the Mike disseminated gold deposit indicates that the method may not be effective for locating deposits with impermeable cover. Faradaic extraction efficiencies of 20-30%, or more, are frequently achieved with NEOCHIM and the method generally shows good reproducibility, especially in extraction of major cations. However, ions of other metals that are useful in exploration, including Au and As, may be collected in low and temporally variable concentrations. The reason for this variability is unclear and requires further investigation.CHIM is a method of in-situ electrogeochemical extraction developed for the exploration of buried mineral deposits. However, electrode problems like diffusion of acid into the soil were encountered during the use of CHIM. The NEOCHIM electrode was developed to inhibit the diffusion of acid and enable collection of anions or cations. Tests over buried gold deposits showed that NEOCHIM responds to mineralized faults associated with disseminated gold deposits whereas partial and total chemical extraction methods do not. This suggests that faults are favored channels for the upward migration of metals and NEOCHIM may be effective in exploration for the deposits. But ions of metals may be collected in low and variable concentration.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

USGS2024

The chytrid insurance hypothesis: Integrating parasitic chytrids into a biodiversity–ecosystem functioning framework for phytoplankton–zooplankton population dynamics

In temperate lakes, eutrophication and warm temperatures can promote cyanobacteria blooms that reduce water quality and impair food-chain support. Although parasitic chytrids of phytoplankton might compete with zooplankton, they also indirectly support zooplankton populations through the “mycoloop”, which helps move energy and essential dietary molecules from inedible phytoplankton to zooplankton. Here, we consider how the mycoloop might fit into the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) framework. BEF considers how more diverse communities can benefit ecosystem functions like zooplankton production. Chytrids are themselves part of pelagic food webs and they directly contribute to zooplankton diets through spore production and by increasing host edibility. The additional way that chytrids might support BEF is if they engage in “kill-the-winner” dynamics. In contrast to grazers, which result in “eat-the-edible” dynamics, kill-the-winner dynamics can occur for host-specific infectious diseases that control the abundance of dominant (in this case inedible) hosts and thus limit the competitive exclusion of poorer (in this case edible) competitors. Thus, if phytoplankton diversity provides functions, and chytrids support algal diversity, chytrids could indirectly favour edible phytoplankton. All three mechanisms are linked to diversity and therefore provide some “insurance” for zooplankton production against the impacts of eutrophication and warming. In our perspective piece, we explore evidence for the chytrid insurance hypothesis , identify exceptions and knowledge gaps, and outline future research directions.

Oecologia↗

USGS2012

Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of stream baseflow generation during a seasonal recession

Relating watershed structure to streamflow generation is a primary focus of hydrology. However, comparisons of longitudinal variability in stream discharge with adjacent valley structure have been rare, resulting in poor understanding of the distribution of the hydrologic mechanisms that cause variability in streamflow generation along valleys. This study explores detailed surveys of stream base flow across a gauged, 23 km 2 mountain watershed. Research objectives were (1) to relate spatial variability in base flow to fundamental elements of watershed structure, primarily topographic contributing area, and (2) to assess temporal changes in the spatial patterns of those relationships during a seasonal base flow recession. We analyzed spatiotemporal variability in base flow using (1) summer hydrographs at the study watershed outlet and 5 subwatershed outlets and (2) longitudinal series of discharge measurements every ~100 m along the streams of the 3 largest subwatersheds (1200 to 2600 m in valley length), repeated 2 to 3 times during base flow recession. Reaches within valley segments of 300 to 1200 m in length tended to demonstrate similar streamflow generation characteristics. Locations of transitions between these segments were consistent throughout the recession, and tended to be collocated with abrupt longitudinal transitions in valley slope or hillslope-riparian characteristics. Both within and among subwatersheds, correlation between the spatial distributions of streamflow and topographic contributing area decreased during the recession, suggesting a general decrease in the influence of topography on stream base flow contributions. As topographic controls on base flow evidently decreased, multiple aspects of subsurface structure were likely to have gained influence.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2003

Windows of opportunity: white-tailed deer and the dynamics of northern hardwood forests of the northeastern US

Herbivory, lighting regimes, and site conditions are among the most important determinants of forest regeneration success, but these are affected by a host of other factors such as weather, predation, human exploitation, pathogens, wind and fire. We draw together > 50 years of research on the Huntington Wildlife Forest in the central Adirondack Mountains of New York to explore regeneration of northern hardwoods. A series of studies each of which focused on a single factor failed to identify the cause of regeneration failure. However, integration of these studies led to broader understanding of the process of forest stand development and identified at least three interacting factors: lighting regime, competing vegetation and selective browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The diverse 100-200 year-old hardwood stands present today probably reflect regeneration during periods of low deer density (< 2.0 deer/km super(2)) and significant forest disturbance. If this hypothesis is correct, forest managers can mimic these 'natural windows of opportunity' through manipulation of a few sensitive variables in the system. Further, these manipulations can be conducted on a relatively small geographic scale. Control of deer densities on a scale of 500 ha and understory American beech (Fagus grandifolia) on a scale of < 100 ha in conjunction with an even-aged regeneration system consistently resulted in successful establishment of desirable hardwood regeneration.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗

USGS2021

Great expectations: Deconstructing the process pathways underlying beaver-related restoration

Beaver-related restoration is a process-based strategy that seeks to address wide-ranging ecological objectives by reestablishing dam building in degraded stream systems. Although the beaver-related restoration has broad appeal, especially in water-limited systems, its effectiveness is not yet well documented. In this article, we present a process-expectation framework that links beaver-related restoration tactics to commonly expected outcomes by identifying the set of process pathways that must occur to achieve those expected outcomes. We explore the contingency implicit within this framework using social and biophysical data from project and research sites. This analysis reveals that outcomes are often predicated on complex process pathways over which humans have limited control. Consequently, expectations often shift through the course of projects, suggesting that a more useful paradigm for evaluating process-based restoration would be to identify relevant processes and to rigorously document how projects do or do not proceed along expected process pathways using both quantitative and qualitative data.

BioScience↗

USGS2022

Higher temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out alters the time between phenophases across temperate tree species

Aim The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the length of the time period between leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species, and associate these changes with potential physiological and environmental drivers to enhance mechanistic insight into these phenomena. Location Central Europe. Time period 1980–2016. Major taxa studied Six temperate woody species. Methods Statistical analyses were carried out based on long-term ground observations of both spring leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species during 1980–2016, a period characterized by rapid warming. Results The temperature sensitivity of flowering (−5.4 ± 0.04 days/℃, mean ± SE ) was higher than that of leaf-out (−4.6 ± 0.04 days/℃) across all species, regardless of whether leaf-out occurred before or after flowering. This study postulates a hypothesis attributing the different temperature sensitivities to different thermal sensitivities, thermal requirements, and photoperiodic controls. Main conclusions The larger temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out resulted in an extended time period between flowering and leaf-out in species that bloom before leafing out, but a shorter time period between these phenophases in species with the opposite strategy. We would like to emphasize the importance of changes in time period between different phenophases, and we recommend conducting experimental research to reveal the underlying mechanisms of plant phenology response to climate change, and to explore its potential ecological implications.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2011

A geologic and anthropogenic journey from the Precambrian to the new energy economy through the San Juan volcanic field

The San Juan volcanic field comprises 25,000 km 2 of intermediate composition mid-Tertiary volcanic rocks and dacitic to rhyolitic calderas including the San Juan–Uncompahgre and La Garita caldera-forming super-volcanoes. The region is famous for the geological, ecological, hydrological, archeological, and climatological diversity. These characteristics supported ancestral Puebloan populations. The area is also important for its mineral wealth that once fueled local economic vitality. Today, mitigating and/or investigating the impacts of mining and establishing the region as a climate base station are the focuses of ongoing research. Studies include advanced water treatment, the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of propylitic bedrock for use in mine-lands cleanup, and the use of soil amendments including biochar from beetle-kill pines. Biochar aids soil productivity and revegetation by incorporation into soils to improve moisture retention, reduce erosion, and support the natural terrestrial carbon sequestration (NTS) potential of volcanic soils to help offset atmospheric CO 2 emissions. This field trip will examine the volcano-tectonic and cultural history of the San Juan volcanic field as well as its geologic structures, economic mineral deposits and impacts, recent mitigation measures, and associated climate research. Field trip stops will include a visit to (1) the Summitville Superfund site to explore quartz alunite-Au mineralization, and associated alteration and new water-quality mitigation strategies; (2) the historic Creede epithermal-polymetallic–vein district with remarkably preserved resurgent calderas, keystone-graben, and moat sediments; (3) the historic mining town of Silverton located in the nested San Juan–Silverton caldera complex that exhibits base-metal Au-Ag mineralization; and (4) the site of ANC and NTS studies. En route back to Denver, we will traverse Grand Mesa, a high NTS area with Neogene basalt-derived soils and will enjoy a soak in the geothermal waters of the Aspen anomaly at Glenwood Springs.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States

Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water. Streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. As part of its National Water Census, the U.S. Geological Survey is planning to provide streamflow predictions for ungaged locations. In order to predict streamflow at a useful spatial and temporal resolution throughout the Nation, efficient methods need to be selected. This report examines several methods used for streamflow prediction in ungaged basins to determine the best methods for regional and national implementation. A pilot area in the southeastern United States was selected to apply 19 different streamflow prediction methods and evaluate each method by a wide set of performance metrics. Through these comparisons, two methods emerged as the most generally accurate streamflow prediction methods: the nearest-neighbor implementations of nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NN-QPPQ) and standardizing logarithms of streamflow by monthly means and standard deviations (NN-SMS12L). It was nearly impossible to distinguish between these two methods in terms of performance. Furthermore, neither of these methods requires significantly more parameterization in order to be applied: NN-SMS12L requires 24 regional regressions—12 for monthly means and 12 for monthly standard deviations. NN-QPPQ, in the application described in this study, required 27 regressions of particular quantiles along the flow duration curve. Despite this finding, the results suggest that an optimal streamflow prediction method depends on the intended application. Some methods are stronger overall, while some methods may be better at predicting particular statistics. The methods of analysis presented here reflect a possible framework for continued analysis and comprehensive multiple comparisons of methods of prediction in ungaged basins (PUB). Additional metrics of comparison can easily be incorporated into this type of analysis. By considering such a multifaceted approach, the top-performing models can easily be identified and considered for further research. The top-performing models can then provide a basis for future applications and explorations by scientists, engineers, managers, and practitioners to suit their own needs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

“Naturalness” in designated Wilderness: Long-term changes in non-native plant dynamics on campsites, Boundary Waters, Minnesota

Wilderness areas in the United States are preserved for their untrammeled naturalness and opportunities for unconfined recreation. The Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness has these qualities, but long-term recreation visitation pressures on campsites can cause significant ecological changes. This article explores changes on campsites, specifically examining non-native plant ecology over 3 decades. The research replicates a 1982 study analyzing vegetation composition and cover on campsites and environmentally paired controls. Camping activities have removed substantial tree cover on campsites, altering their ecological conditions and perceived wilderness character. Over the span of 32 years, the number of non-native plant species found on campsites has not risen, although their mean relative cover has increased significantly and they have spread to more sites. Of the 23 non-native herbs and grasses found on the campsites, only Cirsium arvense is considered a noxious weed by the state of Minnesota. Other noninvasive, non-native plants fall into a gray area in the context of "naturalness" for an area protected as Wilderness because they provide some positive ecological services even as they degrade wilderness character. Thus, wilderness managers face a difficult challenge in coping with the long-term impacts of visitor use on wilderness conditions and character.

Minnesota↗

USGS2026

A 2.5 km movement by a potentially ill white-tailed deer along Nantasket Beach in suburban Massachusetts, USA

White-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) ecology has received significant research attention, yet there is a need for further synthetic work on the species across environmental contexts and research areas. Opportunistic natural history accounts can help identify new conceptual links and research directions by offering new observations and ideas, synthesizing context from the literature, and highlighting gaps in understanding. We provide an opportunistic account of a 2.5 km movement of a white-tailed deer walking, wading, and swimming along Nantasket Beach in a suburban context in Massachusetts, USA. The deer displayed behaviors that could potentially be reflective of trauma, disorientation, or illness, including possibly symptomatic head movements and crouching behavior. The behavior of the deer may also have been influenced by the coastal and suburban context in which the observation took place. Our account explores swimming, deer behavior, and possible illness in a coastal, suburban context. We highlight the need for additional research on the ecology and management of white-tailed deer, including swimming and disease in coastal, marine, and developed contexts, and intersections across these areas.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Documenting the multiple facets of a subsiding landscape from coastal cities and wetlands to the continental shelf

Land subsidence is a settling, sinking, or collapse of the land surface. In the southeastern United States, subsidence is frequently observed as sinkhole collapse in karst environments, wetland degradation and loss in coastal and other low-lying areas, and inundation of coastal urban communities. Human activities such as fluid extraction, mining, and overburden alteration can cause or exacerbate subsidence, which can result in damage to infrastructure and resources. Subsidence is a hazard that takes place throughout the United States; however, a systematic approach to recognize and develop informed responses to the drivers of subsidence has not yet been fully established. To address this problem, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Region (SER) funded the gathering of a team of interdisciplinary USGS scientists to promote scientific collaboration. Southeast Region scientists welcomed scientists from other regions (see table 1.1 in Appendix 1) in September 2018 at the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) in Florida for the first workshop of the Subsidence Flex Team (SFT) (see Appendix 2 for agenda). The SFT set out to review subsidence-related research and technology and develop a unifying framework for describing the processes and hazards associated with land subsidence. A more comprehensive understanding of subsidence hazards could help to inform regional vulnerability assessments that would prove invaluable to the public, community developers, policy makers, and resource managers in both inland and coastal states. The SFT analyzed USGS strengths and weaknesses to identify existing infrastructure and capabilities that could be leveraged to create a comprehensive and far-reaching subsidence-monitoring and mitigation program. Over the course of the 2-day workshop, interdisciplinary understandings of the processes and hazards related to subsidence were explored through individual presentations and group discussion. With all perspectives considered, the SFT recommended that subsidence-related research develop scientific approaches and metrics by which the subsidence component can be isolated and quantified in order to protect both the environment and human infrastructure from harm.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2014

Predation on native sculpin by exotic brown trout exceeds that by native cutthroat trout within a mountain watershed (Logan, UT, USA)

We explored potential negative effects of exotic brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) on native sculpin ( Cottus sp.) on the Logan River, Utah, USA by (i) examining factors most strongly correlated with sculpin abundance (e.g., abiotic conditions or piscivory?), (ii) contrasting the extent of brown trout predation on sculpin with that by native cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii utah ) and (iii) estimating the number of sculpin consumed by brown trout along an elevational gradient using bioenergetics. Abundance of sculpin across reaches showed a strong ( r ≥ 0.40) and significant ( P < 0.05) correlation with physical variables describing width (positive) and gradient (negative), but not with abundance of piscivorous brown trout or cutthroat trout. In mainstem reaches containing sculpin, we found fish in 0% of age‐1, 10% of age‐2 and 33% of age‐3 and older brown trout diets. Approximately 81% of fish consumed by brown trout were sculpin. Despite a similar length–gape relationship for native cutthroat trout, we found only two fish (one sculpin and one unknown) in the diets of native cutthroat trout similar in size to age‐3 brown trout. Based on bioenergetics, we estimate that an average large (> 260 mm) brown trout consumes as many as 34 sculpin per year. Nevertheless, results suggest that sculpin abundance in this system is controlled by abiotic factors and not brown trout predation. Additional research is needed to better understand how piscivory influences brown trout invasion success, including in‐stream experiments exploring trophic dynamics and interactions between brown trout and native prey under different environmental conditions.

Utah↗

USGS2025

A transdisciplinary approach to growing an applied science of cultural evolution for a sustainable future

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗

USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗

USGS2006

Submarine geology of Hana Ridge and Haleakala Volcano's northeast flank, Maui

We present a morphostructural analysis of the submarine portions of Haleakala Volcano and environs, based upon a 4-year program of geophysical surveys and submersible explorations of the underwater flanks of Hawaiian volcanoes that was conducted by numerous academic and governmental research organizations in Japan and the U.S. and funded primarily by the Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology. A resulting reconnaissance geologic map features the 135-km-long Hana Ridge, the 3000 km 2 Hana slump on the volcano's northeast flank, and island-surrounding terraces that are the submerged parts of volcanic shields. Hana Ridge below 2000 m water depth exhibits the lobate morphology typical of the subaqueously erupted parts of Hawaiian rift zones, with some important distinctions: namely, subparallel crestlines, which we propose result from the down-rift migration of offsets in the dike intrusion zone, and an amphitheater at its distal toe, where a submarine landslide has embayed the ridge tip. Deformation of Haleakala's northeast flank is limited to that part identified as the Hana slump, which lies downslope from the volcano's submerged shield, indicating that flank mobility is also limited in plan, inconsistent with hypothesized volcanic spreading driven by rift-zone dilation. The leading edge of the slump has transverse basins and ridges that resemble the thrust ramps of accretionary prisms, and we present a model to describe the slump's development that emphasizes the role of coastally generated fragmental basalt on gravitational instability of Haleakala's northeast flank and that may be broadly applicable to other ocean-island slumps.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2009

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO 3 − -N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman ρ = 0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r = 0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction ( r 2 = 0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗