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Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

Ecosphere↗

Movements and survival of Bachman's Sparrows in response to prescribed summer burns in South Carolina

Prescribed winter burning is a common practice in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) to manage for red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis). The effect of these burns on non-target animals is not well studied. Bachman's sparrows (Aimophila aestivalis) were captured in predominantly longleaf pine stands to be burned and not to be burned at Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge (CSNWR) and the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. Sparrows were marked with radio-transmitters and monitored daily. Before burning, daily movements did not differ among sites within or among study areas. Additionally, daily movements did not differ by sex or time within the breeding season. After prescribed burning, daily movements were longer for sparrows in burned stands than in unburned stands. All marked sparrows dispersed 1-3 days after a stand was burned and never returned. We found no evidence that dispersing sparrows successfully breed elsewhere. Bachman's sparrow survival rates and reproductive output after burning were lowered. The juxtaposition of seemingly suitable Bachman's sparrow habitat in relation to burned stands influenced both the duration and length of dispersal movements. Managers need to consider the proximity of available habitats when developing burning plans when managing for Bachman's sparrows.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southe↗

Strategic directions for U.S. Geological Survey water science, 2012-2022 - Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that was begun in the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). The report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Strategic Science Plan is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences . The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 130-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report. Priority actions focus on the following: Improve integrated science planning for water. Expand and enhance water-resource monitoring networks. Characterize the water cycle through development of state-of-the-art 3-D/4-D hydrogeologic framework models at multiple scales. Clarify the linkage between human water use (engineered hydrology) and the water cycle (natural hydrology). Advance ecological flow science. Provide flood-inundation science and information. Develop rapid deployment teams for water-related emergencies. Conduct integrated watershed assessment, research, and modeling. Deliver water data and analyses to the Nation. The body of the report is presented as a hierarchal set of 5 goals, 14 objectives, and 27 strategic actions that the USGS should undertake to advance water science through year 2022. The goals deal with: Providing society the information it needs regarding the amount and quality of water in all components of the water cycle at high temporal and spatial resolution, nationwide; Advancing our understanding of processes that determine water availability; Predicting changes in the quantity and quality of water resources in response to changing climate, population, land use, and management scenarios; Anticipating and responding to water-related emergencies and conflicts; and Delivering timely hydrologic data, analyses, and decision-support tools seamlessly across the Nation to support water-resource decisions. Scientific information produced on water resources would be without value if it were not communicated to society in a fashion that can inform decisions and actions. Therefore, the chapter following the goals describes how the USGS should inform, involve, and educate society about the science it produces. This includes discussions on local outreach and the use of social media for effective communication. This report concludes with a chapter devoted to the crosscutting science issues of the Water Mission Area with the other USGS Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals, Environmental Health Science, and Natural Hazards. Not one of these Mission Areas stands alone—all must work together and integrate their actions to fulfill the USGS science mission for the future. This final chapter identifies the important linkages that must be realized and maintained for this integration to occur.

Open-File Report↗

Framework for a ground-water quality monitoring and assessment program for California

The State of California uses more ground water than any other State in the Nation. With a population of over 30 million people, an agricultural economy based on intensive irrigation, large urban industrial areas, and naturally elevated concentrations of some trace elements, there is a wide range of contaminant sources that have the potential to contaminate ground water and limit its beneficial uses. In response to the many-and different-potential sources of ground-water contamination, the State of California has evolved an extensive set of rules and programs to protect ground-water quality, and agencies to implement the rules and programs. These programs have in common a focus on compliance with regulations governing chemical use and (or) ground-water quality. Although appropriate for, and successful at, their specific missions, these programs do not at present provide a comprehensive view of ground-water quality in the State of California. In October 2001, The California Assembly passed a bill, AB 599, establishing the Ground-Water- Quality Monitoring Act of 2001.' The goal of AB 599 is to improve Statewide comprehensive ground-water monitoring and increase availability of information about ground-water quality to the public. AB 599 requires the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), in collaboration with an interagency task force (ITF) and a public advisory committee (PAC), to develop a plan for a comprehensive ground-water monitoring program. AB 599 specifies that the comprehensive program should be capable of assessing each ground-water basin in the State through direct and other statistically reliable sampling approaches, and that the program should integrate existing monitoring programs and design new program elements, as necessary. AB 599 also stresses the importance of prioritizing ground-water basins that provide drinking water. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the SWRCB, and in coordination with the ITF and PAC, has developed a framework for a comprehensive ground-water-quality monitoring and assessment program for California. The proposed framework relies extensively on previous work conducted by the USGS through its National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. In particular, the NAWQA program defines three types of ground-water assessment: (1) status, the assessment of the current quality of the ground-water resource; (2) trends, the detection of changes in water quality, and (3) understanding, assessing the human and natural factors that affect ground-water quality. A Statewide, comprehensive ground-water quality-monitoring and assessment program is most efficiently accomplished by applying uniform and consistent study-design and data-collection protocols to the entire State. At the same time, a comprehensive program should be relevant at a variety of scales, and therefore needs to retain flexibility to address regional and local issues. Consequently, many of the program components include a predominant element that will be consistently applied in all basins, and a secondary element that may be applied in specific basins where local conditions warrant attention.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for monitoring wetland elevation dynamics

The National Park Service, in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al, 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For coastal wetlands in particular, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may respond by building elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: A) Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET). B) Understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods). C) Survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums. D) Survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability. This document is divided into two parts; the main body that presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a collection of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) that describes in detail how to perform or execute each step of the methodology. Detailed instruction on the installation, data collection, data management and analysis are provided in this report and associated SOP’s. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by NPS and can help address measures that will ensure these communities exist into the future.

Natural Resource Report↗

Effects of Hurricane Georges on habitat use by captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) released in the Dominican Republic

We radio-tagged and released 49 captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) in Parque Nacional del Este (PNE), Dominican Republic, during 1997 and 1998. Our primary objective was to develop a restoration program centered on using aviary-reared birds to further the recovery of the critically endangered Puerto Rican Parrot (A. vittata). Hurricane Georges made landfall over the release area on 22 September 1998 with sustained winds of 224 km/h, providing us with a unique opportunity to quantify responses of parrots to such disturbances. Quantitative data on such responses by any avian species are scarce, particularly for Amazona species, many of which are in peril and occur in hurricane-prone areas throughout the Caribbean. Mean home ranges of 18 parrots monitored both before and after the hurricane increased (P = 0.08) from 864 ha (CI = 689-1039 ha) pre-hurricane to 1690 ha (CI = 1003-2377 ha) post-hurricane. The total area traversed by all parrots increased > 300%, from 4884 ha pre-hurricane to 15,490 ha post-hurricane. Before Hurricane Georges, parrot activity was concentrated in coastal scrub, tall broadleaf forest, and abandoned agriculture (conucos). After the hurricane, parrots concentrated their activities in areas of tall broadleaf forest and abandoned conucos. Topographic relief, primarily in the form of large sinkholes, resulted in "resource refugia" where parrots and other frugivores foraged after the hurricane. Habitat use and movement patterns exhibited by released birds highlight the importance of carefully considering effects of season, topography, and overall size of release areas when planning psittacine restorations in hurricane-prone areas. ?? The Neotropical Ornithological Society.

Ornitologia Neotropical↗

Developing post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate expectations among various publics or public user groups and inform their responses to future alerts. There is a concern among the scientists and emergency managers that false alerts may negatively impact trust in the system, so quickly disseminated post-alert messages are necessary. For a new early warning system, such as ShakeAlert, this is particularly relevant given that the potentially affected population is likely to be unfamiliar with this system. We address this concern in six steps: (1) assessment of ShakeAlert performance to date, (2) characterization of human behavior and response to earthquake alerts, (3) presentation of a decision tree for issuing post-alert messages, (4) design of a critical set of post-alert messaging scenarios, (5) elaboration of these scenarios with message templates for a variety of communication channels, and (6) development of a typology of earthquake alerts. We further explore methods for monitoring and evaluating ShakeAlert post-alert messaging, for continuous improvement to the system.

California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Uta↗

Monitoring Least Bitterns (Ixobrychis exilis) in Vermont: Detection probability and occupancy modeling

Ixobrychus exillis (Least Bittern) is listed as a species of high concern in the North American Waterbird Conservation Plan and is a US Fish and Wildlife Service migratory bird species of conservation concern in the Northeast. Little is known about the population of Least Bitterns in the Northeast because of their low population density, tendency to nest in dense wetland vegetation, and secretive behavior. Urban and agricultural development is expected to encroach on and degrade suitable wetland habitat; however, we cannot predict the effects on Least Bittern populations without more accurate information on their abundance and distribution. We conducted surveys of wetlands in Vermont to assess the efficacy of a monitoring protocol and to establish baseline Least Bittern abundance and distribution data at a sample of 29 wetland sites. Surveys yielded detections of 31 individuals at 15 of 29 sites across 3 biophysical regions and at 5 sites where occupancy had not been previously reported. Probability of occupancy was positively related to wetland size and number of patches, though the relationships were not strong enough to conclude if these were true determinants of occupancy. Call—response broadcast surveys yielded 30 detections, while passive surveys yielded 13. Call—response broadcasts ( P = 0.897) increased the rate of detection by 55% compared to passive surveys ( P = 0.577). Our results suggest that call—response broadcast surveys are an effective means of assessing Least Bittern occupancy and may reduce bias in long-term monitoring programs.

Vermont↗

Processes influencing the transport and fate of contaminated sediments in the coastal ocean– Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay

Most of the major urban centers of the United States including Boston, New York, Washington, Chicago, New Orleans, Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle—are on a coast (fig. 1.1). All of these cities discharge treated sewage effluent into adjacent waters. In 2000, 74 percent of the U.S. population lived within 200 kilometers (km) of the coast. Between 1980 and 2002, the population density in coastal communities increased approximately 4.5 times faster than in noncoastal areas of the U.S. (Perkins, 2004). More people generate larger volumes of wastes, increase the demands on wastewater treatment, expand the area of impervious land surfaces, and use more vehicles that contribute contaminants to street runoff. According to the National Coastal Condition Report II (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005a), on the basis of coastal habitat, water and sediment quality, benthic index, and fish tissue, the overall national coastal condition is only poor to fair and the overall coastal condition in the highly populated Northeast is poor. Scientific information helps managers to prioritize and regulate coastal-ocean uses that include recreation, commercial fishing, transportation, waste disposal, and critical habitat for marine organisms. These uses are often in conflict with each other and with environmental concerns. Developing a strategy for managing competing uses while maintaining sustainability of coastal resources requires scientific understanding of how the coastal ocean system behaves and how it responds to anthropogenic influences. This report provides a summary of a multidisciplinary research program designed to improve our understanding of the transport and fate of contaminants in Massachusetts coastal waters. Massachusetts Bay and Boston Harbor have been a focus of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research because they provide a diverse geographic setting for developing a scientific understanding of the geology, geochemistry, and oceanography of coastal systems in general. Scientific data from this region can also be used to inform decisions about important economic, environmental, and political issues. From the economic viewpoint, the annual value of tourism and shipping in Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays is about $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. Commercial and recreational fishing generates about $240 million per year in the same region (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005b). The environmental issue is the 300-year history of waste discharge from the Boston metropolitan area into the harbor. This history is punctuated by cycles of environmental degradation, public outcry, and improvements in the sewage treatment system. With each improvement, however, the continuous growth of population in greater Boston (fig. 1.2) and the resulting increase in the volume of waste exceeded the capacity of the treatment system, thereby setting the stage for a new contamination crisis. By the 1980s, the levels of contaminants in sediments of Boston Harbor were among the highest in the nation (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1987). Fish were diseased, shellfish beds were closed, and swimming beaches were unsafe after heavy rains; in general, water quality and aesthetics were below acceptable standards. Legal and political issues have always been part of Boston Harbor’s history. The environmental conditions in the 1980s were highlighted in a 1983 legal suit brought by the city of Quincy against the Metropolitan District Commission (MDC, the state agency responsible for sewage treatment) and heads of three state agencies for discharging untreated or poorly treated sewage into the harbor (Dolin, 2004). The suit never went to trial, but through the actions of a Massachusetts Superior Court, the issue of Boston Harbor contamination remained on the political and public agenda. The judge called the harbor “unsafe, unsanitary, indecent, in violation of the law (Clean Water Act), and a danger to the health and welfare of the people” (Forman, 1984). To force the state legislature to implement a plan to improve harbor conditions, the judge threatened to place the MDC in receivership and curtail new sewage hookups for industry. Under intense lobbying by business, the legislature created the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) in December 1984. The independent MWRA was established to manage Boston’s waste treatment system and was given the authority to float bonds to pay for major improvements in the treatment system. In 1985, a Federal court began hearings on a suit brought by the Conservation Law Foundation, the Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and towns of Quincy and Winthrop against the MDC and MWRA (as heir to responsibilities of the MDC) for years of violation of the Clean Water Act. The judge ruled against the defendants and required all the parties to submit a construction plan and schedule for a new sewage treatment system. From these submissions, he developed a schedule for treatment system upgrades that would give the “citizens of this commonwealth a public assurance that Boston Harbor will be cleaned up within a defined period of time” (Dolin, 2004). The MWRA’s Boston Harbor cleanup program (Levy and Connor, 1992) has transformed the Boston sewage system. Key improvements were to (1) reduce contaminants at the industrial source; (2) remediate leaks in the sewage-collection system; (3) eliminate sewage sludge discharge to the harbor; (4) upgrade sewage treatment from primary to secondary; (5) construct a new ocean outfall 15.2 km offshore in Massachusetts Bay for discharge of treated effluent (fig. 1.3); and (6) implement improvements in the combined-sewer-overflow system. As part of the harbor cleanup program, the MWRA developed a comprehensive monitoring program (summarized in MWRA, 2004) to assess changes in the harbor and bays that specifically related to the new sewage system. Additional information about conditions and processes in the coastal system on a regional scale and over a long time period was and continues to be important in predicting and interpreting local change. Implementation of the MWRA’s program and the mission of the USGS to understand the geology of the nation’s offshore waters provided an opportunity to conduct a cooperative multidisciplinary research program. This USGS program addresses basic scientific questions as well as concerns raised by management regarding the design, implementation, and assessment of the new sewage treatment system. Already active in Boston Harbor during the late 1970s, the USGS expanded research into Massachusetts Bay with a multidisciplinary program in 1989.

Massachusetts↗

Scientific monitoring plan in support of the selected alternative of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan

Introduction The purpose of this document is to describe a strategy by which monitoring and research data in the natural and social sciences will be collected, analyzed, and provided to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), its bureaus, and to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) in support of implementation of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016a). The selected alternative identified in the LTEMP Record of Decision (ROD) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b) describes various data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation efforts to be conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), partner agencies, and cooperators that will inform decisions about operations of Glen Canyon Dam and management of downstream resources between 2017 and 2037, the performance period of the LTEMP. General data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation activities are described in this science plan, whereas specific monitoring and research activities and detailed study plans are to be described in the GCDAMP’s triennial work plans (TWPs) to be developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and GCMRC with input from partner agencies and cooperators during the LTEMP period, which are to be reviewed and recommended by the GCDAMP and approved by the Secretary of the Interior. The GCDAMP consists of several components, the primary committee being the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). This Federal advisory committee is composed of 25 agencies and stakeholder groups and is chaired by the Secretary of the Interior’s designee. The AMWG makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning operations of Glen Canyon Dam and other experimental management actions that are intended to fulfill some obligations of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992. The Technical Work Group (TWG) is a subcommittee of the AMWG and provides technical advice to the AMWG. It is composed of technical and science representatives from the same agencies and stakeholder groups who serve on the AMWG. GCMRC is the primary science provider to the GCDAMP and also coordinates many aspects of the science performed by cooperators and partner agencies. The Science Advisors Program provides independent science reviews and advice at the request of the GCDAMP. The plan proposed here necessarily depends on (1) the protocol for decision-making and the requirements for scientific data reporting described in the LTEMP ROD, (2) the priorities of the GCDAMP as directed by the LTEMP ROD (see Department of the Interior, 2016b, section 6.1), (3) the priorities for monitoring and research in the conservation measures section of the Biological Opinion for the LTEMP (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b, LTEMP ROD attachment E), (4) the priorities for resource management and information needs established by Federal and State resource-management agencies within the GCDAMP, (5) scientific understanding about the linkage between the status of those resources and operations of Glen Canyon Dam, and (6) the need to resolve existing scientific uncertainties about the linkage between dam operations and the condition of resources. We note that resource-management prioritization is fundamentally a policy decision charged specifically to DOI for the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, as outlined most recently in the LTEMP ROD, and is not the responsibility of the GCMRC. However, it is the responsibility of the GCMRC to describe the nature of scientific understanding, the nature of scientific uncertainty, and the risk of making resourcemanagement decisions in the face of existing scientific uncertainty. The goals of science activities in the next 20 years are to inform operational decisions regarding Glen Canyon Dam operations described in the LTEMP ROD, resolve remaining scientific uncertainties, and to monitor resource trends that are affected entirely, or in part, by dam operations.

Open-File Report↗

Using decision science for monitoring threatened western snowy plovers to inform recovery

Western Snowy Plovers ( Charadrius nivosus nivosus ) are federally listed under the US Endangered Species Act as Threatened. They occur along the US Pacific coastline and are threatened by habitat loss and destruction and excessive levels of predation and human disturbance. Populations have been monitored since the 1970s for distribution, reproduction, and survival. Since the species was federally listed in 1993 and a recovery plan was approved under the US Fish and Wildlife Service in 2007, recovery actions have resulted in growing populations with increased presence at breeding and wintering sites throughout their Pacific Coast range. This success has created logistical challenges related to monitoring a recovering species and a need for identifying and instituting the best monitoring approach given recovery goals, budgets, and the likelihood of monitoring success. We devised and implemented a structured decision analysis to evaluate nine alternative monitoring strategies. The analysis included inviting plover biologists involved in monitoring to score each strategy according to a suite of performance measures. Using multi-attribute utility theory, we combined scores across the performance measures for each monitoring strategy, and applied weighted utility values to show the implications of tradeoffs and find optimal decisions. We evaluated four scenarios for weighting the monitoring objectives and how risk attitude affects optimal decisions. This resulted in identifying six strategies that best meet recovery needs and were Pareto optimal for cost-effective monitoring. Results were presented to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, responsible for monitoring as well as for consideration to ensure consistent monitoring methods across the species’ range. Our use of structured decision-making can be applied to cases of other species once imperiled but now on the road to recovery.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Evaluation of the gap intercept method to measure rangeland connectivity

Characterizing the connectivity of materials, organisms, and energy on rangelands is critical to understanding and managing ecosystem response to disturbances. For over twenty years, scientists and rangeland managers have used the gap intercept method to monitor connectivity. However, using gap intercept measurements to infer ecosystem processes or inform management actions and conservation practices on rangelands has been limited because there are few tools and syntheses to help managers pragmatically interpret gap measurements. In this synthesis, we review the different ways the gap intercept method is conducted and highlight considerations when collecting and using gap intercept data. We discuss what is known about how gap intercept data can be used to assess wind and water erosion, biocrust abundance and composition, soil fertility, plant community dynamics, wildlife habitat characteristics, and fuel connectivity and fire behavior. Finally, we identify emerging opportunities regarding the collection and use of gap intercept data to assess rangeland connectivity, ecosystem function, and ecological processes. Through this synthesis we demonstrate the value of the gap intercept method, particularly “all-plant” (i.e., whole-community) canopy gap, in supporting assessments of rangeland condition and vulnerability, and in planning future management actions.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

Indexing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons in an impoundment of the lower Columbia River from highly skewed trawling data

The development of recruitment monitoring programs for age-0 white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus is complicated by the statistical properties of catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. We found that age-0 CPUE distributions from bottom trawl surveys violated assumptions of statistical procedures based on normal probability theory. Further, no single data transformation uniformly satisfied these assumptions because CPUE distribution properties varied with the sample mean (??(CPUE)). Given these analytic problems, we propose that an additional index of age-0 white sturgeon relative abundance, the proportion of positive tows (Ep), be used to estimate sample sizes before conducting age-0 recruitment surveys and to evaluate statistical hypothesis tests comparing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons among years. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that Ep was consistently more precise than ??(CPUE), and because Ep is binomially rather than normally distributed, surveys can be planned and analyzed without violating the assumptions of procedures based on normal probability theory. However, we show that Ep may underestimate changes in relative abundance at high levels and confound our ability to quantify responses to management actions if relative abundance is consistently high. If data suggest that most samples will contain age-0 white sturgeons, estimators of relative abundance other than Ep should be considered. Because Ep may also obscure correlations to climatic and hydrologic variables if high abundance levels are present in time series data, we recommend ??(CPUE) be used to describe relations to environmental variables. The use of both Ep and ??(CPUE) will facilitate the evaluation of hypothesis tests comparing relative abundance levels and correlations to variables affecting age-0 recruitment. Estimated sample sizes for surveys should therefore be based on detecting predetermined differences in Ep, but data necessary to calculate ??(CPUE) should also be collected.

Columbia River↗

Simulating the recovery of suspended sediment transport and river-bed stability in response to dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington

U.S. Department of the Interior is planning to remove two high dams (30 and 60 m) from the Elwha River, which will allow the river to erode sediment deposits in the reservoirs, and ultimately restore the river ecosystem. Fluvial sediment transport and deposition paradoxically represent ecological disturbance and restoration. A one-dimensional, movable boundary sediment-transport model was applied at a daily time step to simulate changes in river-bed elevations and particle-size distributions and concentrations of suspended sediment. The simulations included a three-year dam removal period and a four-year recovery period. Simulated concentrations of suspended sediment recover rapidly during the recovery period. Simulated bed elevation and particle-size distributions are stable for much of the river during the recovery period, but high flows periodically disturb the river bed, causing changes in river-bed elevation and particle-size distribution, especially during autumn, when summer/autumn chinook salmon are incubating in redds. Although the river bed will become increasingly stable after dam removal, episodic high flows will interrupt recovery trends. Productivity and diversity of the ecosystem may be lower because of excess sediment immediately after dam removal but should increase during recovery above current levels as the river. Monitoring of the recovery of the Elwha River ecosystem can target ecologically significant physical parameters indicating the transition from a sediment transport-limited state to a supply-limited state.

Ecological Engineering↗

Methodology for quantifying biodiversity

Protected and Conserved Areas (PCAs) are usually created and managed for multiple values, with biodiversity conservation being the primary value for most PCAs (see Chapter 1). When using Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) or Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) approaches to climate change mitigation, it is important to ensure that there are no unintended negative consequences on biodiversity and co-benefits for biodiversity are sought. This requires baseline biodiversity information and periodic monitoring. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has developed a monitoring framework to measure progress (CBD COP 15 2022) towards the GBF. The framework consists of: • headline indicators for national, regional and global monitoring; • global level indicators (collated from yes/no responses in national reports and used to provide a count of the number of countries having undertaken specific activities); • component indicators (which are a list of optional indicators that may apply at global, regional, national and sub-national levels); • complementary indicators (which are a list of optional indicators for thematic or in-depth analysis of each goal and target). Further details of the monitoring framework can be found in Decision 15/5: Monitoring framework for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD COP 15, 2022). See Table 5.1 for headline indicators and related targets that they measure. These indicators are used to track national progress towards the GBF. However, those designing sub-national or regional PCA frameworks can use them as well. Biodiversity can be measured at different scales, both spatially and temporally, and at different levels and attributes of biological organisation (Noss, 1990). The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2022, December 18) includes goals and targets across scales, with Targets 1 and 3 focused on spatial planning and PCA creation, Targets 2 and 4 focused on restoration and species management to prevent extinction, Target 5 focused on fish stocks, Target 8 on minimising climate change impacts, Target 11 on ecosystem services, and Target 21 on biodiversity information for monitoring the GBF.

IUCN WCPA Protected Area Technical Report Series↗

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) as a volcano monitoring tool: Rationale, method, and applications

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) is an alternative to conventional campaign or survey-mode GPS (SGPS) and to continuous GPS (CGPS) that offers several advantages for monitoring ground deformation. Unlike CGPS installations, SPGPS stations can be deployed quickly in response to changing volcanic conditions or earthquake activity such as a swarm or aftershock sequence. SPGPS networks can be more focused or more extensive than CGPS installations, because SPGPS equipment can be moved from station to station quickly to increase the total number of stations observed in a given time period. SPGPS networks are less intrusive on the landscape than CGPS installations, which makes it easier to satisfy land-use restrictions in ecologically sensitive areas. SPGPS observations are preferred over SGPS measurements because they provide better precision with only a modest increase in the amount of time, equipment, and personnel required in the field. We describe three applications of the SPGPS method that demonstrate its utility and flexibility. At the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, a 9-station SPGPS network serves to densify larger preexisting networks of CGPS and SGPS stations. At the Three Sisters volcanic center, Oregon, a 14-station SPGPS network complements an SGPS network and extends the geographic coverage provided by 3 CGPS stations permitted under wilderness land-use restrictions. In the Basin and Range province in northwest Nevada, a 6-station SPGPS network has been established in response to a prolonged earthquake swarm in an area with only sparse preexisting geodetic coverage. At Three Sisters, the estimated precision of station velocities based on annual ~ 3 month summertime SPGPS occupations from 2009 to 2015 is approximately half that for nearby CGPS stations. Conversely, SPGPS-derived station velocities are about twice as precise as those based on annual ~ 1 week SGPS measurements. After 5 years of SPGPS observations at Three Sisters, the precision of velocity determinations is estimated to be 0.5 mm/yr in longitude, 0.6 mm/yr in latitude, and 0.8 mm/yr in height. We conclude that an optimal approach to monitoring volcano deformation includes complementary CGPS and SPGPS networks, periodic InSAR observations, and measurements from in situ borehole sensors such as tiltmeters or strainmeters. This comprehensive approach provides the spatial and temporal detail necessary to adequately characterize a complex and evolving deformation pattern. Such information is essential to multi-parameter models of magmatic or tectonic processes that can help to guide research efforts, and also to inform hazards assessments and land-use planning decisions.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: Global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long‐lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro‐active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on‐going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long‐term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track‐record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new agents (notably vegetative feeders) can help mitigate existing widespread invasions. Trans‐boundary sharing of information will assist efforts to limit future invasions, in particular, management strategies need to be better evaluated, monitored, published and publicised so that global best‐practice procedures can be developed.

Diversity and Distributions↗

A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework will inform management and policy responses to changing worldwide polar bear status and trends.

Ursus↗