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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Groundwater residence time estimates obscured by anthropogenic carbonate

Groundwater is an important source of drinking and irrigation water. Dating groundwater informs its vulnerability to contamination and aids in calibrating flow models. Here, we report measurements of multiple age tracers ( 14 C, 3 H, 39 Ar, and 85 Kr) and parameters relevant to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from 17 wells in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), an agricultural region that is heavily reliant on groundwater. We find evidence for a major mid-20th century shift in groundwater DIC input from mostly closed- to mostly open-system carbonate dissolution, which we suggest is driven by input of anthropogenic carbonate soil amendments. Crucially, enhanced open-system dissolution, in which DIC equilibrates with soil CO 2 , fundamentally affects the initial 14 C activity of recently recharged groundwater. Conventional 14 C dating of deeper SJV groundwater, assuming an open system, substantially overestimates residence time and thereby underestimates susceptibility to modern contamination. Because carbonate soil amendments are ubiquitous, other groundwater-reliant agricultural regions may be similarly affected.

California↗
USGS2006

The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards

The 18 April 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed nearly 3000 people and left 225,000 residents homeless. Three days after the earthquake, an eight-person Earthquake Investigation Commission composed of 25 geologists, seismologists, geodesists, biologists and engineers, as well as some 300 others started work under the supervision of Andrew Lawson to collect and document physical phenomena related to the quake . On 31 May 1906, the commission published a preliminary 17-page report titled "The Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission". The report included the bulk of the geological and morphological descriptions of the faulting, detailed reports on shaking intensity, as well as an impressive atlas of 40 oversized maps and folios. Nearly 100 years after its publication, the Commission Report remains a model for post-earthquake investigations. Because the diverse data sets were so complete and carefully documented, researchers continue to apply modern analysis techniques to learn from the 1906 earthquake. While the earthquake marked a seminal event in the history of California, it served as impetus for the birth of modern earthquake science in the United States.

GSA Today↗
USGS2006

Crustal insights from gravity and aeromagnetic analysis: Central North Slope, Alaska

Aeromagnetic and gravity data are processed and interpreted to reveal deep and shallow information about the crustal structure of the central North Slope, Alaska. Regional aeromagnetic anomalies primarily reflect deep crustal features. Regional gravity anomalies are more complex and require detailed analysis. We constrain our geophysical models with seismic data and interpretations along two transects including the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect. Combined geophysical analysis reveals a remarkable heterogeneity of the pre-Mississippian basement. In the central North Slope, pre-Mississippian basement consists of two distinct geophysical domains. To the southwest, the basement is dense and highly magnetic; this basement is likely mafic and mechanically strong, possibly acting as a buttress to basement involvement in Brooks Range thrusting. To the northeast, the central North Slope basement consists of lower density, moderately magnetic rocks with several discrete regions (intrusions?) of more magnetic rocks. A conjugate set of geophysical trends, northwest-southeast and southwest-northeast, may be a factor in the crustal response to tectonic compression in this domain. High-resolution gravity and aeromagnetic data, where available, reflect details of shallow fault and fold structure. The maps and profile models in this report should provide useful guidelines and complementary information for regional structural studies, particularly in combination with detailed seismic reflection interpretations. Future challenges include collection of high-resolution gravity and aeromagnetic data for the entire North Slope as well as additional deep crustal information from seismic, drilling, and other complementary methods. Copyrights ?? 2006. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS2008

Near-shore and off-shore habitat use by endangered juvenile Lost River and Shortnose Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon: 2006 data summary

Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris , listed as endangered in 1988 under the Endangered Species Act, have shown infrequent recruitment into adult populations in Upper Klamath Lake (NRC 2004). In an effort to understand the causes behind and provide management solutions to apparent recruitment failure, a number of studies have been conducted including several on larval and juvenile sucker habitat use. Near-shore areas in Upper Klamath Lake with emergent vegetation, especially those near the mouth of the Williamson River, were identified as important habitat for larval suckers (Cooperman and Markle 2000; Reiser et al. 2001). Terwilliger et al. (2004) characterized primary age-0 sucker habitat as near-shore areas in the southern portion of Upper Klamath Lake with gravel and cobble substrates. Reiser et al. (2001) provided some evidence that juvenile suckers use habitats with emergent vegetation, but nothing concerning the extent or timing of use. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began investigating the importance of near-shore and off-shore habitats with and without emergent vegetation for juvenile suckers in 2000. We found substantial numbers of juvenile suckers using these habitats near the mouth of the Williamson River into late August (VanderKooi and Buelow 2003). The distribution and relative abundance of juvenile suckers showed high spatial variability throughout the summer for all species combined, Lost River suckers, and shortnose suckers (VanderKooi et al. 2006; Hendrixson et al. 2007a). Results from sampling near-shore areas in 2002 suggested juvenile sucker proximity to shoreline changes depending on the presence or absence of shoreline vegetation (VanderKooi et al. 2006), whereas in 2004 and 2005 results were equivocal (Hendrixson et al. 2007a, 2007b). Research by USGS of juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake conducted since 2000 provides a valuable long-term data set which can be used to evaluate multi-year trends in juvenile sucker relative abundance and habitat use. Data on the relative abundance of juvenile suckers and their habitat use patterns will provide valuable information to guide restoration and management decisions in the Upper Klamath Basin. Information on juvenile sucker catch rates may also be valuable for evaluating year class success, estimating early life stage survival rates, and predicting upper bounds of future recruitment to adult spawning populations. We continued sampling juvenile suckers in 2006 as part of an effort to develop bioenergetics models for juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers. This study required us to collect fish to determine growth rates and energy content of juvenile suckers. We followed the sampling protocols and methods described by Hendrixson et al. (2007b) to maintain continuity and facilitate comparisons with data collected in recent years, but sampled at a reduced level of effort compared to previous years (approximately one-third) due to limited funding. Here we present a summary of catch data collected in 2006. Bioenergetics models will be reported separately

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Documentation of the U.S. Geological Survey sea floor stress and sediment mobility database

The U.S. Geological Survey Sea Floor Stress and Sediment Mobility Database contains estimates of bottom stress and sediment mobility for the U.S. continental shelf. This U.S. Geological Survey database provides information that is needed to characterize sea floor ecosystems and evaluate areas for human use. The estimates contained in the database are designed to spatially and seasonally resolve the general characteristics of bottom stress over the U.S. continental shelf and to estimate sea floor mobility by comparing critical stress thresholds based on observed sediment texture data to the modeled stress. This report describes the methods used to make the bottom stress and mobility estimates, statistics used to characterize stress and mobility, data validation procedures, and the metadata for each dataset and provides information on how to access the database online.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Lithostratigraphy, petrography, biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of the surficial aquifer system of western Collier County, Florida

In 1996, seven cores were recovered in western Collier County, southwestern Florida, to acquire subsurface geologic and hydrologic data to support ground-water modeling efforts. This report presents the lithostratigraphy, X-ray diffraction analyses, petrography, biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of these cores. The oldest unit encountered in the study cores is an unnamed formation that is late Miocene. At least four depositional sequences are present within this formation. Calculated age of the formation, based on strontium-isotope stratigraphy, ranges from 9.5 to 5.7 Ma (million years ago). An unconformity within this formation that represents a hiatus of at least 2 million years is indicated in the Old Pump Road core. In two cores, Collier-Seminole and Old Pump Road, the uppermost sediments of the unnamed formation are not dated by strontium isotopes, and, based on the fossils present, these sediments could be as young as Pliocene. In another core (Fakahatchee Strand-Ranger Station), the upper part of the unnamed formation is dated by mollusks as Pliocene. The Tamiami Formation overlies the unnamed formation throughout the study area and is represented by the Ochopee Limestone Member. The unit is Pliocene and probably includes the interval of time near the early/late Pliocene boundary. Strontium-isotope analysis indicates an early Pliocene age (calculated ages range from 5.1 to 3.5 Ma), but the margin of error includes the latest Miocene and the late Pliocene. The dinocyst assemblages in the Ochopee typically are not age-diagnostic, but, near the base of the unit in the Collier-Seminole, Jones Grade, and Fakahatchee Strand State Forest cores, they indicate an age of late Miocene or Pliocene. The molluscan assemblages indicate a Pliocene age for the Ochopee, and a distinctive assemblage of Carditimera arata and Chione cortinaria in several of the cores specifically indicates an age near the early/late Pliocene boundary. Undifferentiated sands overlie the Pliocene limestones in two cores in the southern part of the study area. Artificial fill occurs at the top of most of the cores. The hydrologic confining units penetrated by these cores are different in different parts of the study area. To the west, a hard tightly cemented dolostone forms the first major confining unit below the water table. In the eastern part of the study area, confinement is more difficult to determine. A tightly cemented sandstone, much younger than the dolostones to the west and probably not laterally connected to them, forms a slight confining unit in one core. Thick zones of poorly sorted muddy unconsolidated sands form a slight confining unit in other cores; these probably are not correlative to either the sandstone or the dolostones to the west. The age and sedimentologic observations suggest a complex compartmentalization of the surficial aquifer system in southwestern Florida. The calibrations of dinocyst and molluscan occurrences with strontium-isotope stratigraphy allows us to expand and document the reported ranges of many taxa. This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American Stratigraphic Code. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Florida↗
USGS2015

Wintering Bald Eagle count trends in the conterminous United States, 1986–2010

We analyzed counts from the annual Midwinter Bald Eagle Survey to examine state, regional, and national trends in counts of wintering Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) within the conterminous 48 United States from 1986 to 2010. Using hierarchical mixed model methods, we report trends in counts from 11 729 surveys along 844 routes in 44 states. Nationwide Bald Eagle counts increased 0.6% per yr over the 25-yr period, compared to an estimate of 1.9% per yr from 1986 to 2000. Trend estimates for Bald Eagles were significant ( P ≤ 0.05) and positive in the northeastern and northwestern U.S. (3.9% and 1.1%, respectively), while trend estimates for Bald Eagles were negative ( P ≤ 0.05) in the southwestern U.S. (−2.2%). After accounting for potential biases resulting from temporal and regional differences in surveys, we believe trends reflect post-DDT recovery and subsequent early effects of density-dependent population regulation.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS1999

How to build a model illustrating sea-floor spreading and subduction

This report describes how to build a model of the outer 300 km (180 miles) of the Earth that can be used to develop a better understanding of the principal features of plate tectonics, including sea-floor spreading, the pattern of magnetic stripes frozen into the sea floor, transform faulting, thrust faulting, subduction, and volcanism. In addition to a paper copy of this report, the materials required are a cardboard shoebox, glue, scissors, straight edge, and safety razor blade.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1984

Habitat Suitability Index Models: The Arizona guild and layers of habitat models

This document is part of the Habitat Suitability Index Models Series, which provides habitat information useful for impact assessment and habitat management. Both of the models described in this report are based on the significant association of Wildlife species with vegetation structure. The models compare the structure in the study area with the vegetation structure that could potentially occur in thtat study area following land use changes or disturbance. These models provide a low resolution assessment of habitat structure relevant early in the land-use planning process.

FWS/OBS↗
USGS2022

A steady-state groundwater flow model for the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park, Des Moines, Iowa

The Des Moines River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water for Des Moines Water Works, the municipal water utility that provides residential and commercial water resources to the residents of Des Moines, Iowa, and surrounding municipalities. As an initial step in developing a better understanding of the groundwater resources of the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model in cooperation with Des Moines Water Works to simulate water-table elevations in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park in Des Moines under winter low-flow conditions. A simple conceptual model consisting of a hydrogeologic framework, water budget, and inferred water-table elevation map was developed for the model area. The inferred water-table elevation map was constructed based on general knowledge of hydrogeology within the model area and was used to set calibration targets for numerical model calibration. A steady-state numerical model was constructed based on the conceptual model using MODFLOW-NWT to simulate an area of about 15 square kilometers near Prospect Park in Des Moines. Parameter ESTimation software was used for model calibration to assess and optimize performance of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters. The numerical groundwater flow model and supporting data are available in the USGS data release associated with this report, which contains the model archive. Performance of the calibrated steady-state model was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water-table elevations, as well as estimated and simulated contributions to streamflow within the model area. The difference between observed water-table elevations and simulated water-table elevations was −0.1 meter at the majority of calibration targets, with the negative value indicating an overestimation of the simulated water-table elevation value compared to the observed water-table elevation value, and the root mean square error was 0.13 meter, which represents about 20 percent of the difference in observed water-table elevations. The simulated value of contributions to streamflow within the model area was considered similar to the estimated value, increasing confidence in the ability of the model to accurately represent the groundwater flow system in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer in the model area during winter low-flow conditions.

Iowa↗
USGS2014

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks , flows , and converters . Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

California↗
USGS2006

Report of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Modeling Workshop, Pacific Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, March 22-23, 2005

A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Modeling Workshop was held to discuss the general topic of coastal modeling, defined broadly to include circulation, waves, sediment transport, water quality, ecology, sediment diagenesis, morphology change, and coastal evolution, on scales ranging from seconds and a few centimeters (individual ripples) to centuries (coastal evolution) and thousands of kilometers (tsunami propagation). The workshop was convened at the suggestion of CMG Program Management to improve communication among modelers and model users, assess modeling-related activities being conducted at the three centers (Florida Integrated Science Center, FISC; Pacific Marine Science Center; PMSC; and Woods Hole Science Center; WHSC), and develop goals, strategies, and plans for future modeling activities. The workshop represents a step toward developing a five-year strategic plan, and was timed to provide input for the FY06 prospectus. The workshop was held at the USGS Pacific Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz on March 22-23, 2005.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations inherent in both. A major task of this study was to improve the overall methodology used to conduct HBC stock assessment by addressing concerns identified in an independent review conducted in 2003 (Kitchell and others, 2003). The review report identified that the current technique of assigning age to individual fish based on length was a potential source of bias in ASMR estimates of abundance and recruitment, and called for a more complete examination of this potential error source. Additionally, the review suggested that further work to develop procedures to better arbitrate among alternative assessment models (e.g., ASMR 1?3) would be beneficial. To address the first of the concerns identified by the independent review, this study uses mark-recapture data to develop a temperature-dependent growth model to characterize the relationship between HBC age and length. This model attempts to account for temperature differences resulting from both ontogenetic habitat shifts between the Little Colorado and the mainstem Colorado Rivers as well as seasonal variation in water temperature within the LCR. The resulting growth model is then used to characterize the error in assigning age to individual fish based on length. Results presented in this study suggest that ageing error does not result in large bias in either abundance or recruitment estimates from the ASMR model. However, incorporating ageing error into the assessment does result in less precise estimates, particularly for recruitment. To address the second concern brought forward in the review report related to model selection procedures, this study arbitrated among the competing models by both examining model fit using Pearson residual analyses and considering information theoretic measures. Although adult abundance estimates and trend varied little among all models considered, these procedures identified ASMR 3 as the model whose underlying assumptions were most consistent with the data. Because ASMR 3 is

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

A monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface

This report describes a monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface, referred to as the Thornthwaite monthly water-balance program. Computations of monthly water-balance components of the hydrologic cycle are made for a specified location. The program can be used as a research tool, an assessment tool, and a tool for classroom instruction.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Simulating post-dam removal effects of hatchery operations and disease on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Lower Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been considering the approval to breach four dams on lower Klamath River in southern Oregon and northern California. Approval of this application would allow for Strikeouts indicate text deletion hereafter. decommissioning and dam removal, beginning as early as 2023. This action would affect Klamath River salmon ( Oncorhynchus ssp.) populations, a critical food source for federally endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales ( Orcinus orca ). In the long run, reintroduction of salmon populations to the upper Klamath River Basin may increase salmon abundance available to Southern Resident Killer Whales, but in the near term, it is uncertain how changes in hatchery management and disease-caused mortality by the myxosporean parasite Ceratonova shasta will influence abundance of salmon populations entering the ocean. To assess this uncertainty, we used the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to simulate population dynamics of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) for nine different population sources that rear and migrate through the Klamath River. S3 is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time-step and simulates daily growth, survival, and movement of juvenile Chinook salmon from the time of spawning through ocean entry. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a C. shasta disease submodel; (2) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model that calculates daily growth rates; (3) size-dependent movement; (4) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (5) habitat, river flow, and water temperature specific to each scenario. We constructed and ran four scenarios: two scenarios for dams in place (Dams In) and dams removed (Dams Out), and given these dam-removal conditions, a low- and high-spore scenario for C. shasta . Each scenario was run for nine water years representing a range of conditions from dry to wet. Previously published daily river flows and water temperatures for Dams In and Dams Out provided physical inputs for each scenario. Daily spore concentrations were simulated using a three-part mechanistic model that used river discharge, water temperature, and the prevalence of infection (POI) of hatchery-origin Chinook salmon juveniles with C. shasta in the previous year 3 . We constructed two spore scenarios for each Dams In and Dams Out scenario, a “Low Spore” scenario and a “High Spore” scenario resulting in four scenarios for comparison. Spore scenarios were established by setting the prior-year POI of hatchery fish to 0.15 and 0.75 in the estimation of spore concentrations. Hatchery releases under Dams Out differed from those under the current Dams In scenario. Hatchery releases under the Dams Out scenario were modified to emulate changes in hatchery production that would occur under Dams Out conditions. This included moving hatchery production and releases from Iron Gate Dam to a proposed hatchery at Fall Creek, which would be located about 11 kilometers (km) upstream of Iron Gate Dam. It is anticipated that the Fall Creek hatchery would produce fewer fish at smaller and larger sizes at different release timings. For salmon inputs, we used observed historical abundance of main-stem spawners from brood year 2009 and juvenile salmon entering from tributaries in water year 2010, which represented an average return year for the 2005–18 period. Main-stem spawning was allowed to shift upstream from Iron Gate Dam under the Dams Out scenario. We also included hatchery-origin fish as natural spawners that would have otherwise returned to Iron Gate Hatchery in the first 3 years following dam removal. The S3 model simulated considerably higher total abundance for Dams Out relative to the respective Dams In scenarios, and higher abundance for the Low Spore scenario relative to the High Spore scenario. The difference in abundance between the four combinations of the dam-removal and spore scenarios varied among population groups. For main-stem natural production, juvenile abundance at ocean entry was 2–3 times higher for Dams Out scenarios than for Dams In scenarios, and juvenile abundance for High Spore scenarios was lower than that for the Dams Out Low Spores scenario. For hatchery releases, abundance at ocean entry was similar between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios for most water years, despite lower release sizes from Fall Creek Hatchery under Dams Out. For tributary populations, abundance for the High Spore scenarios was consistently lower than for the Low Spore scenarios, but differences between dam-removal scenarios varied among water years, with Dams Out scenarios having similar or higher abundance than Dams In scenarios, and dry water years having the largest difference between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios. We determined that different factors affected the response of each population group. For main-stem natural production, survival from fry emergence to ocean entry was higher under Dams Out scenarios compared to Dams In scenarios because juveniles emerged later and tended to arrive at the ocean sooner and at larger sizes, causing the population to have less time-dependent in-river mortality. Owing to their late release timing, hatchery populations had high disease-caused mortality in Dams In and Dams Out High Spore scenarios. Furthermore, a high proportion of infected fish (those that would be expected to die at some future point) survived to the ocean. Iron Gate Hatchery fish had lower survival rates than releases from Fall Creek Hatchery because the last mid-June release group from the 2010 Iron Gate Hatchery release incurred nearly total mortality in most water years owing to water temperatures exceeding 24 degrees Celsius. Our analysis shows how the S3 model was able to track different populations and provide insights on how the differential response of each population combined to influence the simulated number of juvenile Chinook salmon arriving at the Pacific Ocean where they become available as a food source for Southern Resident Killer Whales.

California↗
USGS2000

Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

California, Oregon↗
USGS1981

Digital-computer model of the principal ground-water reservoir in Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Utah

The computer model presented in this report was used to simulate the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Beaver, Iron, and Washington Counties, Utah (Mower, 1981). The details of the formulation of the model, testing of its validity, and the results of predictions are discussed in the cited report. This report was prepared as part of a cooperative program with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, to investigate the water resources of the State. It is an addendum to the principal interpretive report, and it is presented in order to make the model available to anyone desiring to use it for additional predictions. The main program used was the finite-difference model for aquifer simulation in two dimensions documented by Trescott, Pinder, and Larson, (1976). Minor modifications were made to adapt the program to the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area. All the modifications are listed at the top of table 1, and were related to parameter input and output, thus none of the computational subroutines were affected. The parameter arrays (table 1) and map of the area with a grid overlay (pi. 1) are given on following pages. The model simulates an aquifer- under water-table conditions, mostly composed of unconsoliuated basin-fill deposits. The boundaries of the modeled area (pi. 1) generally coincide with the boundaries of the saturated basin fill. However, in the southwest-central part of the model, permeable consolidated rock is included; and that part of the northern boundary between the Black and Wah Wah Mountains is an arbitrary boundary in basin fill between the Beryl-Enterprise area and the Milford area that lies to the northeast. The ignimbrite at Table Butte also was included in the active part of the model. The model includes simulation of discharge by evapotranspiration from phreatophytes. The areal recharge array was used to simulate recharge entering the modeled area at its boundaries and from stream infiltration in the southern corner near Enterprise. In addition, this array included discharge by wells operated during the period simulated as being under steady-state conditions (virtually 1937), and discharging wells simulating flow of water northeast to the Milford area. These wells also were included in the transient-state simulation (1937-77), although any changes in this discharge were modeled using the pumpage array (Group IV, table 1). The wells simulating outflow to the Milford area are shown on plate 1, but the wells pumping in 1937 are not shown unless they also were pumped during 1937-77. The pumpage array was used to simulate: (1) Discharge from wells, (2) discharge after 1977 from a mine in the southwest-central part of the model and recharge resulting form the mine discharge (pi. 1), and (3) changes in discharge in wells operated during the steady-state period. Recharge from irrigation was simulated by reducing pumpage from nodes where irrigation occurs. Discharge from all wells was reduced by 5 percent by multiplying all pumpage by 0.95 in the computer program. North of Newcastle, in T. 35 S., R. 15 W., pumpage was reduced by 35 percent because surface materials are very permeable.

Utah↗
USGS1998

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Paluxy aquifer in the vicinity of Landfills 1 and 3, U.S. Air Force Plant 4, Fort Worth, Texas

Ground-water contamination of the surficial terrace alluvial aquifer has occurred at U.S. Air Force Plant 4, a government-owned, contractor-operated facility, northwest of Fort Worth, Texas. A poorly constructed monitoring well, P–22M, open to the underlying middle zone of the Paluxy aquifer was installed at landfill 3, October 1987, allowing leakage of contaminated ground water to reach the Paluxy aquifer. This well was plugged and abandoned in November 1995. Additionally, volatile organic compounds have been detected in fractures in the Goodland-Walnut confining unit, the hydrogeologic unit separating the terrace alluvial aquifer from the underlying Paluxy aquifer, beneath the western part of landfill 1. Volatile organic compounds in concentrations near the analytical detection limit were detected in the upper Paluxy prior to the drilling of well P–22M. The ground-water-flow simulation model described in this report was developed to examine the best logistically feasible location to install recovery wells to capture the low concentration (less than 100 micrograms per liter) trichloroethylene plume beneath landfills 1 and 3 (west Paluxy plume). Once the recovery wells were installed (1996), the simulation model was recalibrated with new data. This report documents the capture area of the installed recovery wells. Four geologic units are pertinent to this site-specific model. From oldest to youngest, these are the Glen Rose Formation, Paluxy Formation, Walnut Formation, and Goodland Limestone. The Glen Rose Formation is relatively impermeable in the study area and forms the confining unit underlying the Paluxy Formation. The Paluxy Formation forms the Paluxy aquifer, which is a public drinking water supply for the City of White Settlement. The Walnut Formation and Goodland Limestone form the Goodland-Walnut confining unit overlying the Paluxy aquifer. Near landfill 3, gamma-ray logs indicate three distinct zones of the Paluxy Formation; upper, middle, and lower. The formation is about 170-feet thick near landfill 3, and each zone is about 57-feet thick. Two steady-state simulations using the computer program MODFLOW were analyzed using the particle-tracking computer program, MODPATH. One simulation is the calibration simulation using Paluxy aquifer water-level data for May 1993. The second simulation includes the installed recovery wells. A variably spaced grid was designed for the model. The smallest grid cells, 25 by 25 feet, are in the vicinity of landfills 1 and 3. The largest cells, 4,864.5 by 1,441.5 feet, are at the northwestern corner of the model grid near the Parker-Tarrant County line. The modeling was accomplished with three layers representing the upper, middle, and lower zones of the Paluxy aquifer. Particles, which represent contaminant molecules moving in solution with the ground water, were tracked from well P–22M and an area below landfill 1, at the top of the upper zone of the Paluxy aquifer, for 9 years (forward tracking). The forward tracking estimates where contaminants might move by advection from 1987 to 1996. Analysis of backward tracking from the new recovery wells indicates that the simulated contributing area to the recovery wells intercepts the contaminant plume, minimizing off-site migration of the west Paluxy plume. To determine the effectiveness of the recovery wells, monitoring wells southeast of Building 14 have been installed (1996–97) for sampling.

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