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USGS2012

Survey of hydrologic models and hydrologic data needs for tracking flow in the Rio Grande, north-central New Mexico, 2010

The six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos have prior and paramount rights to deliveries of water from the Rio Grande for their use. When the pueblos or the Bureau of Indian Affairs Designated Engineer identifies a need for additional flow on the Rio Grande, the Designated Engineer is tasked with deciding the timing and amount of releases of prior and paramount water from storage at El Vado Reservoir to meet the needs of the pueblos. Over the last three decades, numerous models have been developed by Federal, State, and local agencies in New Mexico to simulate, understand, and (or) manage flows in the Middle Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. In 2008, the Coalition of Six Middle Rio Grande Basin Pueblos entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a comprehensive survey of these hydrologic models and their capacity to quantify and track various components of flow. The survey of hydrologic models provided in this report will help water-resource managers at the pueblos, as well as the Designated Engineer, make informed water-resource-management decisions that affect the prior and paramount water use. Analysis of 4 publicly available surface-water models and 13 publicly available groundwater models shows that, although elements from many models can be helpful in tracking flow in the Rio Grande, numerous data gaps and modeling needs indicate that accurate, consistent, and timely tracking of flow on the Rio Grande could be improved. Deficient or poorly constrained hydrologic variables are sources of uncertainty in hydrologic models that can be reduced with the acquisition of more refined data. Data gaps need to be filled to allow hydrologic models to be run on a real-time basis and thus ensure predictable water deliveries to meet needs for irrigation, domestic, stock, and other water uses. Timeliness of flow-data reporting is necessary to facilitate real-time model simulation, but even daily data are sometimes difficult to obtain because the data come from multiple sources. Each surface-water model produces results that could be helpful in quantifying the flow of the Rio Grande, specifically by helping to track water as it moves down the channel of the Rio Grande and by improving the understanding of river hydraulics for the specified reaches. The ability of each surface-water model to track flow on the Rio Grande varies according to the purpose for which each model was designed. The purpose of Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM) - to simulate water storage and delivery operations in the Rio Grande - is more applicable to tracking flow on the Rio Grande than are any of the other surface-water models surveyed. Specifically, the strengths of URGWOM in relation to modeling flow are the details and attention given to the accounting of Rio Grande flow and San Juan-Chama flow at a daily time step. The most significant difficulty in using any of the surveyed surface-water models for the purpose of predicting the need for requested water releases is that none of the surface-water models surveyed consider water accounting on a real-time basis. Groundwater models that provide detailed simulations of shallow groundwater flow in the vicinity of the Rio Grande can provide large-scale estimates of flow between the Rio Grande and shallow aquifers, which can be an important component of the Rio Grande water budget as a whole. The groundwater models surveyed for this report cannot, however, be expected to provide simulations of flow at time scales of less than the simulated time step (1 month to 1 year in most cases). Of those of the currently used groundwater models, the purpose of model 13 - to simulate the shallow riparian groundwater environment - is the most appropriate for examining local-scale surface-water/groundwater interactions. The basin-scale models, however, are also important in understanding the large-scale water balances between the aquifers and the surface water. In the case of the Upper and Middle Rio Grande Valley, models 6, 10, and 12 are the most accurate and current groundwater models available.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

USGS2011

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: Pilot-point theory, guidelines, and research directions

Pilot points have been used in geophysics and hydrogeology for at least 30 years as a means to bridge the gap between estimating a parameter value in every cell of a model and subdividing models into a small number of homogeneous zones. Pilot points serve as surrogate parameters at which values are estimated in the inverse-modeling process, and their values are interpolated onto the modeling domain in such a way that heterogeneity can be represented at a much lower computational cost than trying to estimate parameters in every cell of a model. Although the use of pilot points is increasingly common, there are few works documenting the mathematical implications of their use and even fewer sources of guidelines for their implementation in hydrogeologic modeling studies. This report describes the mathematics of pilot-point use, provides guidelines for their use in the parameter-estimation software suite (PEST), and outlines several research directions. Two key attributes for pilot-point definitions are highlighted. First, the difference between the information contained in the every-cell parameter field and the surrogate parameter field created using pilot points should be in the realm of parameters which are not informed by the observed data (the null space). Second, the interpolation scheme for projecting pilot-point values onto model cells ideally should be orthogonal. These attributes are informed by the mathematics and have important ramifications for both the guidelines and suggestions for future research.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Assessment of salinity retention or mobilization by sediment-retention ponds near Delta, Colorado, 2019

Salinity control efforts in the Colorado River Basin have focused on mobilization of salts from irrigated land, but nonirrigated rangelands are also a source of salinity. In particular, lands where soils have formed from the Late Cretaceous Mancos Shale under arid and semiarid climates contain considerable quantities of salt, mainly in the subsurface. Hundreds of thousands of contour furrows and check dams (gully plugs) were constructed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Bureau of Reclamation in the late 1950s and 1960s to reduce runoff, sedimentation, and salt mobilization from ephemeral stream channels on rangelands. Sediment-retention ponds associated with check dams are dry most of the year, except immediately following substantial rain events. Generally, no maintenance has been performed on these structures, some have degraded over time, and their current and past influence on salinity is poorly understood. To assess the influence of check dams and their associated ponds on salt retention and mobilization, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the BLM, conducted a study of such ponds within the Gunnison Gorge National Conservation Area (GGNCA) near Delta, Colorado. This report includes conceptual models of how sediment-retention ponds function relative to salinity, and a collection of environmental data to evaluate the conceptual models. An inventory of 69 ponds indicated that 38 percent no longer had water holding capacity, and another 20 percent could hold 1 foot or less of water. Check-dam degradation was the main cause, but sediment infill of ponds contributed as well. Water content of soil profiles collected beneath ponds and immediately downstream from check dams indicated little penetration of water below 60 centimeters for most ponds and little evidence for lateral movement of water beneath check dams. Patterns of salt content in the soil profiles indicated no accumulation of salts at the pond surface from evaporating waters and little evidence for salt redistribution in the form of salt bulges or salt depletion curves at intermediate depths. Based on the conceptual models presented and interpretations of data collected by this study, it appears that the sediment-retention ponds in the GGNCA have neither mobilized nor retained substantial quantities of salt during their lifetimes.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Evaluation of Water Year 2011 Glen Canyon Dam Flow Release Scenarios on Downstream Sand Storage along the Colorado River in Arizona

This report describes numerical modeling simulations of sand transport and sand budgets for reaches of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam. Two hypothetical Water Year 2011 annual release volumes were each evaluated with six hypothetical operational scenarios. The six operational scenarios include the current operation, scenarios with modifications to the monthly distribution of releases, and scenarios with modifications to daily flow fluctuations. Uncertainties in model predictions were evaluated by conducting simulations with error estimates for tributary inputs and mainstem transport rates. The modeling results illustrate the dependence of sand transport rates and sand budgets on the annual release volumes as well as the within year operating rules. The six operational scenarios were ranked with respect to the predicted annual sand budgets for Marble Canyon and eastern Grand Canyon reaches. While the actual WY 2011 annual release volume and levels of tributary inputs are unknown, the hypothetical conditions simulated and reported herein provide reasonable comparisons between the operational scenarios, in a relative sense, that may be used by decision makers within the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Instream flow characterization of Upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2005

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model simulation results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing or decreasing streamflow. In 2005, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Big Boulder, Challis, Bear, Mill, and Morgan Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Big Boulder. Instantaneous measurements of discharge were also made at selected sites. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes PHABSIM modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. In addition, streamflow needs for riffle dwelling invertebrate taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) are presented. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects that were identified as potential low-streamflow passage barriers at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho↗

USGS1976

A model for calculating effects of liquid waste disposal in deep saline aquifer

Injection of liquid industrial wastes into confined underground saline aquifers can offer a good disposal alternative from both environmental and economic considerations. One of the needs in choosing from among several disposal alternatives is a means of evaluating the influence such an injection will have on the aquifer system. This report describes a mathematical model to accomplish this purpose. The objective of the contract was to develop a three-dimensional transient mathematical model which would accurately simulate behavior of waste injection into deep saline aquifers. Fluid properties, density and viscosity are functions of pressure, temperature and composition to provide a comprehensive assessment tool. The model is a finite-difference numerical solution of the partial differential equations describing single phase flow in the aquifer, energy transport by convection and conduction, and compositional changes in the aquifer fluid. The model is not restricted to examining waste disposal operations. It can be used effectively to evaluate fresh water storage in saline aquifers, hot water storage in underground aquifers, salt water intrusion into groundwater flow systems and other similar applications. The primary advantages of the present model can be summarized as: The model is user-oriented for easy application to full-scale evaluation needs. The model is fully three-dimensional and transient. The model is comprehensive accounting for density and viscosity variations in the aquifer due to temperature or compositional changes. The model includes the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion in both the temperature and compositional mixing between resident and injected fluids. The model energy balance includes the effects of pressure. This can be important in deep aquifer systems where the viscous pressure gradient is significant. The model uses second-order correct space and time approximations to the convective terms. This minimizes the numerical dispersion problem. The model is extremely flexible in providing a wide choice of boundary conditions. These include natural flow in the aquifer, aquifer influence functions around the perimeter of the grid in recognition that the gridded region does not have no-flow boundaries, heat losses into the overlying or underlying impermeable strata, and the wellbore heat and pressure drop calculations coupled to the aquifer flow equations. The limitations of the present techniques are: The use of the second-order correct finite-difference approximations introduces block size and time step restrictions. These restrictions, though considerably less stringent than explicit methods cause, depend upon the magnitude of the dispersivity. The comprehensive nature of the model makes the computer time and storage requirements significant. The model, because of its complexity, is not as efficient in reducing down to solve simpler problems as a specially written model would be. Included in the report are detailed descriptions of the approach used in the model, validation tests of the model, and a typical application of the model. A comparison volume documents the input data requirements, program structure, and an example problem for the model. '

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

A numerical program for steady-state flow of magma-gas mixtures through vertical eruptive conduits

This report presents a model that calculates flow properties (pressure, vesicularity, and some 35 other parameters) as a function of vertical position within a volcanic conduit during a steady-state eruption. The model idealizes the magma-gas mixture as a single homogeneousfluid and calculates gas exsolution under the assumption of equilibrium conditions. These are the same assumptions on which classic conduit models (e.g. Wilson and Head, 1981) have been based. They are most appropriate when applied to eruptions of rapidly ascending magma (basaltic lava-fountain eruptions, and Plinian or sub-Plinian eruptions of intermediate or silicic magmas) that contains abundant nucleation sites (microlites, for example) for bubble growth.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1973

Puerto Rico water resources planning model program description

Because the use of the Mathematical Programming System -Extended (MPSX) to solve large linear and mixed integer programs requires the preparation of many input data cards, a matrix generator program to produce the MPSX input data from a much more limited set of data may expedite the use of the mixed integer programming optimization technique. The Model Definition and Control Program (MODCQP) is intended to assist a planner in preparing MPSX input data for the Puerto Rico Water Resources Planning Model. The model utilizes a mixed-integer mathematical program to identify a minimum present cost set of water resources projects (diversions, reservoirs, ground-water fields, desalinization plants, water treatment plants, and inter-basin transfers of water) which will meet a set of future water demands and to determine their sequence of construction. While MODCOP was specifically written to generate MPSX input data for the planning model described in this report, the program can be easily modified to reflect changes in the model's mathematical structure.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids). Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations. The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration. Seasonal rank-sum tests, the second method used, identified step trends in water-quality measured in different decades—1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Tests were conducted on all nutrients at 28 stations and on all measures of major ions at the 4 selected stations. Results of seasonal rank-sum tests between the 1980s and the 2000s identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total nitrogen (14) than stations with upward trends (2) and more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (18) than stations with upward trends (1). A combined dataset of trend results for concentrations over water years 1980‒2011 was created from the results of the two tests for the period. Results of WRTDS models were included in this combined dataset, if available. Otherwise, the results of the seasonal rank-sum tests between water-quality characteristics measured in the 1980s and 2000s were included. Trend results over water years 1980‒2011 in the combined dataset show that few of the 28 stations had upward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus. There were only 2 stations with upward trends in total nitrogen concentration and 1 station with an upward trend in total phosphorus concentration. Results for filtered nitrate plus nitrite show about the same number of stations with upward trends (9) as stations with downward trends (7). Results for all measures of major ions show upward trends at the four stations tested.

New Jersey↗

USGS2008

Coastal strategies to predict Escherichia coli concentrations for beaches along a 35 km stretch of southern Lake Michigan

To understand the fate and movement of Escherichia coli in beach water, numerous modeling studies have been undertaken including mechanistic predictions of currents and plumes and empirical modeling based on hydrometeorological variables. Most approaches are limited in scope by nearshore currents or physical obstacles and data limitations; few examine the issue from a larger spatial scale. Given the similarities between variables typically included in these models, we attempted to take a broader view of E. coli fluctuations by simultaneously examining twelve beaches along 35 km of Indiana's Lake Michigan coastline that includes five point-source outfalls. The beaches had similar E. coli fluctuations, and a best-fit empirical model included two variables: wave height and an interactive term comprised of wind direction and creek turbidity. Individual beach R2 was 0.32-0.50. Data training-set results were comparable to validation results (R2 = 0.48). Amount of variation explained by the model was similar to previous reports for individual beaches. By extending the modeling approach to include more coastline distance, broader-scale spatial and temporal changes in bacteria concentrations and the influencing factors can be characterized. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2003

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' ( WGCEP, 1999 ; WGCEP, 2002 ) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP ( 1988 ), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP ( 1999 ) and WGCEP ( 2002 ), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP ( 1990 ), WGCEP ( 1999 ), and WGCEP ( 2002 ), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP ( 2002 ).

California↗

USGS1994

User's guide to revised method-of-characteristics solute-transport model (MOC--version 31)

The U.S. Geological Survey computer model to simulate two-dimensional solute transport and dispersion in ground water (Konikow and Bredehoeft, 1978; Goode and Konikow, 1989) has been modified to improve management of input and output data and to provide progressive run-time information. All opening and closing of files are now done automatically by the program. Names of input data files are entered either interactively or using a batch-mode script file. Names of output files, created automatically by the program, are based on the name of the input file. In the interactive mode, messages are written to the screen during execution to allow the user to monitor the status and progress of the simulation and to anticipate total running time. Information reported and updated during a simulation include the current pumping period and time step, number of particle moves, and percentage completion of the current time step. The batch mode enables a user to run a series of simulations consecutively, without additional control. A report of the model's activity in the batch mode is written to a separate output file, allowing later review. The user has several options for creating separate output files for different types of data. The formats are compatible with many commercially available applications, which facilitates graphical postprocessing of model results. Geohydrology and Evaluation of Stream-Aquifer Relations in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern Alabama, Northwestern Florida, and Southwestern Georgia By Lynn J. Torak, Gary S. Davis, George A. Strain, and Jennifer G. Herndon Abstract The lower Apalachieola-Chattahoochec-Flint River Basin is underlain by Coastal Plain sediments of pre-Cretaceous to Quaternary age consisting of alternating units of sand, clay, sandstone, dolomite, and limestone that gradually thicken and dip gently to the southeast. The stream-aquifer system consism of carbonate (limestone and dolomite) and elastic sediments, which define the Upper Floridan aquifer and Intermediate system, in hydraulic connection with the principal rivers of the basin and other surface-water features, natural and man made. Separate digital models of the Upper Flori-dan aquifer and Intermediate system were constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey's MODular Finite-Element model of two dimensional ground-water flow, based on concep- tualizations of the stream-aquifer system, and calibrated to drought conditions of October 1986. Sensitivity analyses performed on the models indicated that aquifer hydraulic conductivity, lateral and vertical boundary flows, and pumpage have a strong influence on groundwater levels. Simulated pumpage increases in the Upper Floridan aquifer, primarily in the Dougherty Plain physiographic district of Georgia,. caused significant reductions in aquifer discharge to streams that eventually flow to Lake Seminole and the Apalachicola River and Bay. Simulated pumpage increases greater than 3 times the October 1986 rates caused drying ofsome stream reaches and parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer in Georgia. Water budgets prepared from simulation results indicate that ground- water discharge to streams and recharge by horizontal and vertical flow are the principal mechanisms for moving water through the flow system. The potential for changes in ground-water quality is high in areas where chemical constituents can be mobilized by these mechanisms. Less than 2 percent of ground-water discharge to streams comes from the Intermediate system; thus, it plays a minor role in the hydrodynamics of the stream- aquifer system.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1995

Listings of model input and selected output values for the simulation of ground-water flow near Los Alamos, North-central New Mexico

This report contains listings of model input and selected output values for the simulation of ground-water flow near Los Alamos, north- central New Mexico. This simulation was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Los Alamos National Laboratory (Frenzel, P.F., 1995, Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow near Los Alamos, north-central New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 95-4091). The simulation used the U.S. Geological Survey modular flow model code (McDonald, M.G., and Harbaugh, A.W., 1988, A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model: Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey, book 6, chap. A1). The listings in this report are in compressed format on a 1.44-megabyte IBM-PC1 compatible floppy disk. Software is included for decompression to ASCII format.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Bighorn sheep habitat studies, population dynamics, and population modeling in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, Wyoming and Montana, 2000-2003

At the request of National Park Service resource managers, we began a study in 2000 to evaluate causes for the decline of the bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) population inhabiting Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA), the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, and surrounding state and U.S. Forest Service lands in Montana and Wyoming. Our study consisted of radio-collaring adult rams and ewes with mortality sensors to monitor adult mortalities, tracking ewes to determine pregnancy and lambing rates, habitat assessments to determine why the population was not expanding into what had been modeled using GIS methodology as suitable bighorn sheep habitat, measuring ungulate herbaceous consumption rates and herbaceous production to determine plant responses, and aerial and boat surveys to determine bighorn sheep population range and population dynamics (Schoenecker and others, this report). Two habitat suitability models were created and conducted (Gudorf, this report; Wockner and others, this report) using different methodologies, and comparisons made between the two. Herd population dynamics were modeled using the POP-II and POP-III programs (Roelle, this report), and a reassessment of ungulate exclosures that were established 8–10 years ago was conducted (Gerhardt, this report). The bighorn sheep population of the greater Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) was extirpated in the 1800s, and then reintroduced in 1973. The herd increased to a peak population of about 211 animals (Kissell and others, 1996), but then declined sharply in 1995 and 1996. Causes for the decline were unknown. Numbers have remained around 100 ± 20 animals since 1998. Previous modeling efforts determined what areas were suitable bighorn sheep habitat (Gudorf and others, 1996). We tried to determine why sheep were not using areas that were modeled as suitable or acceptable habitat, and to evaluate population dynamics of the herd.

Bighorn Canyon national Recreation Area↗

USGS2025

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2002

Measured and simulated runoff to the lower Charles River, Massachusetts, October 1999–September 2000

The lower Charles River, the water body between the Watertown Dam and the New Charles River Dam, is an important recreational resource for the Boston, Massachusetts, metropolitan area, but impaired water quality has affected its use. The goal of making this resource fishable and swimmable requires a better understanding of combined-sewer-overflow discharges, non-combined-sewer-overflow stormwater runoff, and constituent loads. This report documents the modeling effort used to calculate non-combined-sewer-overflow runoff to the lower Charles River. During the 2000 water year, October 1, 1999–September 30, 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey collected precipitation data at Watertown Dam and compiled data from five other precipitation gages in or near the watershed. In addition, surface-water discharge data were collected at eight sites—three relatively homogenous land-use sites, four major tributary sites, and the Charles River at Watertown Dam, which is the divide between the upper and lower watersheds. The precipitation and discharge data were used to run and calibrate Stormwater Management Models developed for the three land-use subbasins (single-family, multi-family, and commercial), and the two tributary subbasins (Laundry and Faneuil Brooks). These calibrated models were used to develop a sixth model to simulate 54 ungaged outfalls to the lower Charles River. Models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey at gaged sites were calibrated with up to 24 storms. Each model was evaluated by comparing simulated discharge against measured discharge for all storms with appreciable precipitation and reliable discharge data. The model-fit statistics indicated that the models generally were well calibrated to peak discharge and runoff volumes. The model fit of the commercial land-use subbasin was not as well calibrated compared to the other models because the measured flows appear to be affected by variable conditions not represented in the model. A separate Stormwater Management Model of the Stony Brook Subbasin previously developed by others was evaluated with the newly collected data from this study; this model had a model fit comparable to the models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total annual runoff to the lower Charles River during the 2000 water year, not including contributions from combined-sewer-overflows except from the Stony Brook Subbasin, was 16,500 million cubic feet; 92 percent of the inflow was from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, 3 percent was from the Stony Brook Subbasin, 2 percent was from the Muddy River Subbasin, and less than 1 percent was from the combined inflows of Laundry and Faneuil Brooks. The remaining ungaged drainage area contributed about 2 percent of the total annual inflow to the lower Charles River. Excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, total annual runoff to the lower Charles River was 1,240 million cubic feet; 39 percent was from the Stony Brook Subbasin, 27 percent was from the Muddy River, which includes runoff that drains to the Muddy River conduit, 7 percent was from the Laundry Brook Subbasin, and 4 percent was from the Faneuil Brook Subbasin. Flow from the ungaged areas composed about 23 percent of the total annual inflow to the lower Charles River, excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam. Runoff to the lower Charles River was calculated for two design storms representing a 3-month and a 1-year event, 1.84 and 2.79 inches of total rainfall, respectively. These simulated discharges were provided to the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority for use in a receiving-water model of the lower Charles River. Total storm runoff to the lower Charles River was 111 and 257 million cubic feet for the 3-month and 1-year storms, respectively. Excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, total runoff to the lower Charles River was 30 and 53 million cubic feet for the 3-month and 1-year storms, respectively. Runoff from the various tributary areas for the design storms was about in the same proportion as that for the annual runoff.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

The need for US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) to report estimates of epistemic uncertainties in the hazard (e.g. fractile hazard curves) in all forthcoming releases is increasing. With fractile hazard curves as potential new outputs from the USGS 2023 NSHM, a simultaneous need is to help end-users better understand these epistemic uncertainties and clarify their potential uses. In this article, we address the latter need by (1) characterizing epistemic uncertainties in two updates of the USGS NSHM (2014 for California and 2021 for Hawaii), (2) illustrating a variety of downstream applications of fractile hazard curves in both hazard and risk contexts, and (3) discussing implications from the various types of uncertainties. We found that the epistemic uncertainty in hazard is generally larger for Hawaii than for California, the epistemic uncertainty in hazard can be reasonably approximated with a lognormal distribution for most of the cases considered, and the correlation between epistemic uncertainty in hazard at two different intensity measure levels generally varies with both location and type of intensity measure. Furthermore, we developed models for readily generating approximate fractile hazard curves in California and Hawaii. Finally, given the complexities involved in the hazard modeling process, we developed an open-source interactive tool to enable a broad range of users to independently examine and potentially start using such epistemic uncertainties for their respective applications.

Earthquake Spectra↗