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USGS2002

Application of landscape models to alternative futures analyses

Scientists and environmental managers alike are concerned about broadscale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on environmental and economic end points, such as water quality and quantity, species habitat, productivity, erosion potential, recreational value, and overall ecological health (Rapport et al., 1998). They also are interested in predicting short-and long-term future impacts on ecological goods and services based on current land management policies and decisions (Steinitz, 1996). Because we have the means to adjust land management policies, it is worthwhile to develop approaches that can predict the consequences (alternative futures) of different land management policies for different environmental end points. This type of analysis can, for example, allow decision makers in resource conservation and restoration programs to estimate how they can get the most ecological benefit for the least cost

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2001

Status of the world's remaining closed forests: An assessment using satellite data and policy options

Historically, it appears that some of the WRCF have survived because i) they lack sufficient quantity of commercially valuable species; ii) they are located in remote or inaccessible areas; or iii) they have been protected as national parks and sanctuaries. Forests will be protected when people who are deciding the fate of forests conclude than the conservation of forests is more beneficial, e.g. generates higher incomes or has cultural or social values, than their clearance. If this is not the case, forests will continue to be cleared and converted. In the future, the WRCF may be protected only by focused attention. The future policy options may include strategies for strong protection measures, the raising of public awareness about the value of forests, and concerted actions for reducing pressure on forest lands by providing alternatives to forest exploitation to meet the growing demands of forest products. Many areas with low population densities offer an opportunity for conservation if appropriate steps are taken now by the national governments and international community. This opportunity must be founded upon the increased public and government awareness that forests have vast importance to the welfare of humans and ecosystems' services such as biodiversity, watershed protection, and carbon balance. Also paramount to this opportunity is the increased scientific understanding of forest dynamics and technical capability to install global observation and assessment systems. High-resolution satellite data such as Landsat 7 and other technologically advanced satellite programs will provide unprecedented monitoring options for governing authorities. Technological innovation can contribute to the way forests are protected. The use of satellite imagery for regular monitoring and Internet for information dissemination provide effective tools for raising worldwide awareness about the significance of forests and intrinsic value of nature.

Ambio↗

USGS2019

Aquifer depletion and potential impacts on long-term irrigated agricultural productivity

Groundwater is the Earth’s most extracted raw material, with almost 1,000 cubic kilometers per year (800 million acre-feet per year) of groundwater pumped from aquifers around the world. Approximately 70% of groundwater withdrawals worldwide are used to support agricultural production systems, and within the United States, about 71% of groundwater withdrawals are used for irrigating croplands. This percentage of groundwater used to support agriculture is even higher in arid and semi-arid areas, where the only consistent source of irrigation water is groundwater. In these regions, however, the use of groundwater typically far exceeds the rate at which it is naturally replenished, indicating that these critical groundwater resources are being slowly depleted. Within the United States, groundwater depletion has occurred in many important agricultural production regions, including the Great Plains Region (Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and northern Texas), the Central Valley of California, the Mississippi Embayment Aquifer (Mississippi River lowlands bordering Arkansas and Mississippi), aquifers in southern Arizona, and smaller aquifers in many western states. The groundwater resource with the greatest long-term depletion is the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in the Great Plains Region of the United States, where groundwater levels have declined by more than 50 meters (150 feet) in some areas. The Central Valley of California, however, is experiencing the highest groundwater depletion intensity because of increased use over the last several decades. The most obvious consequences of depleting groundwater resources are the loss of a long-term water supply and the increased costs of pumping groundwater as the water table declines further below the ground surface. There are many other consequences associated with groundwater depletion, however, including the loss of the productivity of groundwater production wells (possibly requiring the construction of new wells); the depletion of the flow of water in rivers, creeks, and lakes when they are hydrologically connected to underlying aquifers; the shifting and subsidence of land surfaces that can occur when groundwater is extracted from aquifers; and the intrusion of high saline, or poor quality, water from other subsurface formations. The most effective approaches for addressing groundwater depletion focus on reducing or eliminating the imbalance between the inflow and outflow of water to an aquifer. Methods that focus on increasing the inflow to groundwater resources include the development of managed aquifer recharge systems and altering land-use practices to increase the infiltration of water below the land surface. Methods that focus on decreasing groundwater use include the implementation of more efficient irrigation systems, the development of agricultural crops that require less water, and the creation of economic incentives to encourage water conservation. All of these methods should be considered when developing plans to address the long-term consequences of groundwater depletion. In addition, when developing policies that regulate groundwater systems that are being depleted, the potential consequences of groundwater depletion need to be fully assessed to determine the trade-offs that exist between the undesired impacts of groundwater depletion and whether these impacts outweigh the benefits associated with groundwater use.

Issue Paper↗

USGS2015

A survey of Bureau of Land Management employees on collaboration and alternative dispute resolution

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has been actively expanding its capacity to work cooperatively with other agencies, Tribes, the public, and other stakeholders using collaborative and alternative dispute resolution (ADR) approaches. In 1997, the BLM created the BLM’s Collaboration and Alternative Dispute Resolution Program (Collaboration/ADR Program) to centralize, strengthen, and coordinate these efforts. Specifically, the Collaboration/ADR Program is charged with developing ADR policies; ensuring that statutory and regulatory requirements are met; and providing training, resources, and direct support for collaboration and ADR in the BLM. At the request of the Collaboration/ADR Program, the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey, located in the Fort Collins Science Center, conducted an online survey of BLM employees in early 2013 to address four overarching questions: What information sources and assistance resources are BLM employees currently accessing to fill their conflict/dispute resolution and collaboration needs? What are the perceived information and resource needs of BLM employees associated with conflict/dispute resolution and collaboration? What information and resources can the BLM Collaboration/ADR Program provide to fill BLM employee needs? What is the BLM employee level of knowledge associated with conflict/dispute resolution and collaboration? What are the attitudes and perceptions of BLM employees toward conflict/dispute resolution and collaboration? This report describes the findings of this online survey and will assist the BLM’s Collaboration and ADR Oversight Committee in developing the Strategic Plan for the Collaboration/ADR Program. The purpose of the Strategic Plan is to advance collaboration in the BLM and to increase the capacity of the Collaboration/ADR Program to support collaborative efforts on the ground. In March 2013, a user-specific link to the online survey was sent via email to all current BLM employees ( n = 6,734) that could potentially have had experience in collaboration and conflict resolution based on their job series. The links took the respondents to a webpage where the survey was administered. Email reminders were sent at weekly intervals thereafter. When the survey closed in May 2013, the response rate was 45 percent (3,161 employees). Of these, only 14 percent (427 respondents) indicated that they did not have direct experience with collaboration or ADR, and were unlikely to gain experience in the future. Because these respondents were not the target population of this survey, they were branched to the demographic questions at the end of the survey and were not included in any further analyses. The remaining 86 percent (2,734 respondents) indicated that either they did have direct experience with collaboration and (or) ADR, or that they might gain experience with one or both in the future. Below we highlight some of the key findings from their survey responses (refer to the Results section for a comprehensive report of the survey findings).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

Comparison of groundwater flow in Southern California coastal aquifers

Development of the coastal aquifer systems of Southern California has resulted in overdraft, changes in streamflow, seawater intrusion, land subsidence, increased vertical flow between aquifers, and a redirection of regional flow toward pumping centers. These water-management challenges can be more effectively addressed by incorporating new understanding of the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical setting of these aquifers. Groundwater and surface-water flow are controlled, in part, by the geologic setting. The physiographic province and related tectonic fabric control the relation between the direction of geomorphic features and the flow of water. Geologic structures such as faults and folding also control the direction of flow and connectivity of groundwater flow. The layering of sediments and their structural association can also influence pathways of groundwater flow and seawater intrusion. Submarine canyons control the shortest potential flow paths that can result in seawater intrusion. The location and extent of offshore outcrops can also affect the flow of groundwater and the potential for seawater intrusion and land subsidence in coastal aquifer systems. As coastal aquifer systems are developed, the source and movement of ground-water and surface-water resources change. In particular, groundwater flow is affected by the relative contributions of different types of inflows and outflows, such as pump-age from multi-aquifer wells within basal or upper coarse-grained units, streamflow infiltration, and artificial recharge. These natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows represent the supply and demand components of the water budgets of ground-water within coastal watersheds. They are all significantly controlled by climate variability related to major climate cycles, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The combination of natural forcings and anthropogenic stresses redirects the flow of groundwater and either mitigates or exacerbates the potential adverse effects of resource development, such as declining water levels, sea-water intrusion, land subsidence, and mixing of different waters. Streamflow also has been affected by development of coastal aquifer systems and related conjunctive use. Saline water is the largest water-quality problem in Southern California coastal aquifer systems. Seawater intrusion is a significant source of saline water, but saline water is also known to come from other sources and processes. Seawater intrusion is typically restricted to the coarse-grained units at the base of fining-upward sequences of terrestrial deposits, and at the top of coarsening upward sequences of marine deposits. This results in layered and narrow intrusion fronts. Maintaining the sustainability of Southern California coastal aquifers requires joint management of surface water and groundwater (conjunctive use). This requires new data collection and analyses (including research drilling, modern geohydrologic investigations, and development of detailed computer groundwater models that simulate the supply and demand components separately), implementation of new facilities (including spreading and injection facilities for artificial recharge), and establishment of new institutions and policies that help to sustain the water resources and better manage regional development.

California↗

USGS2018

A social–ecological perspective for riverscape management in the Columbia River Basin

Riverscapes are complex, landscape-scale mosaics of connected river and stream habitats embedded in diverse ecological and socioeconomic settings. Social–ecological interactions among stakeholders often complicate natural-resource conservation and management of riverscapes. The management challenges posed by the conservation and restoration of wild salmonid populations in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) of western North America are one such example. Because of their ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic importance, salmonids present a complex management landscape due to interacting environmental factors (eg climate change, invasive species) as well as socioeconomic and political factors (eg dams, hatcheries, land-use change, transboundary agreements). Many of the problems in the CRB can be linked to social–ecological interactions occurring within integrated ecological, human–social, and regional–climatic spheres. Future management and conservation of salmonid populations therefore depends on how well the issues are understood and whether they can be resolved through effective communication and collaboration among ecologists, social scientists, stakeholders, and policy makers.

Columbia River Basin↗

USGS2015

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

Study Region: Brahmaputra River basin in South Asia. Study Focus: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate and validate the model and analyze uncertainties with a sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated for the A1B and A2 scenarios and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988–2004. New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO 2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate.

Brahmaputra River basin↗

USGS2026

Identifying headwater streams across the conterminous United States

Headwater streams play critical roles in hydrologic and biogeochemical processes and functions, yet their spatial distribution and land cover context remain poorly understood at continental scales, and no dedicated geospatial dataset exists. Building from a high-resolution conterminous United States (CONUS) hydrography network dataset, we quantified the spatial extent, density, and upstream catchment characteristics of headwater stream segments across the CONUS. We identified approximately 8.4 million kilometers of headwater streams, finding that 77% of the total stream network consists of headwaters, nearly double the total length represented in prior estimates. Stream density varied fivefold across regions, from < 1 km·km −2 in arid basins to > 5 km·km −2 in humid, forested areas. Over 73% of the CONUS landmass drains from headwater streams. The majority of headwater stream length occurred in forested and cultivated catchments across the CONUS, while substantial regional differences were evident for headwater stream distribution in other land cover classes (for example, wetlands, urban areas, shrublands, and herbaceous-dominated catchments). The dedicated and novel geospatial dataset, HELiOS (HEadwater streams and Low-Order Systems) is introduced for management and research use. The HELiOS dataset provides the first continental-scale, high-resolution characterization of headwater streams, offering new insights and opportunities for hydrologic modeling, ecological assessments, and environmental policy.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2015

Calculating crop water requirement satisfaction in the West Africa Sahel with remotely sensed soil moisture

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will provide soil moisture data with unprecedented accuracy, resolution, and coverage, enabling models to better track agricultural drought and estimate yields. In turn, this information can be used to shape policy related to food and water from commodity markets to humanitarian relief efforts. New data alone, however, do not translate to improvements in drought and yield forecasts. New tools will be needed to transform SMAP data into agriculturally meaningful products. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possibility and efficiency of replacing the rainfall-derived soil moisture component of a crop water stress index with SMAP data. The approach is demonstrated with 0.1°-resolution, ~10-day microwave soil moisture from the European Space Agency and simulated soil moisture from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System. Over a West Africa domain, the approach is evaluated by comparing the different soil moisture estimates and their resulting Water Requirement Satisfaction Index values from 2000 to 2010. This study highlights how the ensemble of indices performs during wet versus dry years, over different land-cover types, and the correlation with national-level millet yields. The new approach is a feasible and useful way to quantitatively assess how satellite-derived rainfall and soil moisture track agricultural water deficits. Given the importance of soil moisture in many applications, ranging from agriculture to public health to fire, this study should inspire other modeling communities to reformulate existing tools to take advantage of SMAP data.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2018

Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011

Quantifying change in urban land provides important information to create empirical models examining the effects of human land use. Maps of developed land from the National Land Cover Database ( NLCD ) of the conterminous United States include rural roads in the developed land class and therefore overestimate the amount of urban land. To better map the urban class and understand how urban lands change over time, we removed rural roads and small patches of rural development from the NLCD developed class and created four wall-to-wall maps (1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011) of urban land. Removing rural roads from the NLCD developed class involved a multi-step filtering process, data fusion using geospatial road and developed land data, and manual editing. Reference data classified as urban or not urban from a stratified random sample was used to assess the accuracy of the 2001 and 2006 urban and NLCD maps. The newly created urban maps had higher overall accuracy (98.7 percent) than the NLCD maps (96.2 percent). More importantly, the urban maps resulted in lower commission error of the urban class (23 percent versus 57 percent for the NLCD in 2006) with the trade-off of slightly inflated omission error (20 percent for the urban map, 16 percent for NLCD in 2006). The removal of approximately 230,000 km 2 of rural roads from the NLCD developed class resulted in maps that better characterize the urban footprint. These urban maps are more suited to modeling applications and policy decisions that rely on quantitative and spatially explicit information regarding urban lands.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2023

Toward conciliation in the habitat fragmentation and biodiversity debate

Landscape-scale conservation planning is urgent given the extent of anthropogenic land-use change and its pervasive impacts on Earth’s biodiversity. However, such efforts are hindered by disagreements over the effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity that have persisted since the mid-1970s. We contend that nearly 50 years later, these disagreements have become a locked-in debate characterized by polarized, unproductive discourse and a lack of consistent guidance for landscape managers and policy makers. Here, we highlight the need for a unified set of principles regarding conservation in fragmented landscapes, identify potential reasons for disparate conclusions in fragmentation research, and suggest ways for the ecological community to advance research that leads to consensus rather than the perpetuation of disagreement. Explicit efforts to develop and test multiple competing hypotheses, inter-laboratory collaborations, and acknowledgement of multiple interacting effects will be vital for moving the fragmentation debate forward. We argue that we in the ecology community should be responsible for helping to reconcile different views across scales, systems, and methodological approaches to advance conservation planning within a landscape ecology framework.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2014

Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture

Over 22 million hectares (ha) of U.S. croplands are irrigated. Irrigation is an intensified agricultural land use that increases crop yields and the practice affects water and energy cycles at, above, and below the land surface. Until recently, there has been a scarcity of geospatially detailed information about irrigation that is comprehensive, consistent, and timely to support studies tying agricultural land use change to aquifer water use and other factors. This study shows evidence for a recent overall net expansion of 522 thousand ha across the U.S. (2.33%) and 519 thousand ha (8.7%) in irrigated cropped area across the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) from 2002 to 2007. In fact, over 97% of the net national expansion in irrigated agriculture overlays the HPA. We employed a modeling approach implemented at two time intervals (2002 and 2007) for mapping irrigated agriculture across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We utilized U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) county statistics, satellite imagery, and a national land cover map in the model. The model output, called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Irrigated Agriculture Dataset for the U.S. (MIrAD-US), was then used to reveal relatively detailed spatial patterns of irrigation change across the nation and the HPA. Causes for the irrigation increase in the HPA are complex, but factors include crop commodity price increases, the corn ethanol industry, and government policies related to water use. Impacts of more irrigation may include shifts in local and regional climate, further groundwater depletion, and increasing crop yields and farm income.

Agricultural Systems↗

USGS2012

Quality of streams in Johnson County, Kansas, 2002--10

Stream quality in Johnson County, northeastern Kansas, was assessed on the basis of land use, hydrology, stream-water and streambed-sediment chemistry, riparian and in-stream habitat, and periphyton and macroinvertebrate community data collected from 22 sites during 2002 through 2010. Stream conditions at the end of the study period are evaluated and compared to previous years, stream biological communities and physical and chemical conditions are characterized, streams are described relative to Kansas Department of Health and Environment impairment categories and water-quality standards, and environmental factors that most strongly correlate with biological stream quality are evaluated. The information is useful for improving water-quality management programs, documenting changing conditions with time, and evaluating compliance with water-quality standards, total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit conditions, and other established guidelines and goals. Constituent concentrations in water during base flow varied across the study area and 2010 conditions were not markedly different from those measured in 2003, 2004, and 2007. Generally the highest specific conductance and concentrations of dissolved solids and major ions in water occurred at urban sites except the upstream Cedar Creek site, which is rural and has a large area of commercial and industrial land less than 1 mile upstream on both sides of the creek. The highest base-flow nutrient concentrations in water occurred downstream from wastewater treatment facilities. Water chemistry data represent base-flow conditions only, and do not show the variability in concentrations that occurs during stormwater runoff. Constituent concentrations in streambed sediment also varied across the study area and some notable changes occurred from previously collected data. High organic carbon and nutrient concentrations at the rural Big Bull Creek site in 2003 decreased to at least one-fourth of those concentrations in 2007 and 2010 likely because of the reduction in upstream wastewater discharge contributions. The highest concentrations of trace metals in 2010 occurred at urban sites on Mill and Indian Creeks. Zinc was the only metal to exceed the probable effects concentration in 2010, which occurred at a site on Indian Creek. In 2007, chromium and nickel at the upstream urban Cedar Creek site exceeded the probable effects concentrations, and in 2003, no metals exceeded the probable effects concentrations. Of 72 organic compounds analyzed in streambed sediment, 26 were detected including pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), fuel products, fragrances, preservatives, plasticizers, manufacturing byproducts, flame retardants, and disinfectants. All 6 PAH compounds analyzed were detected, and the probable effects concentrations for 4 of the 6 PAH compounds analyzed were exceeded in 2010. Only five pesticide compounds were detected in streambed sediment, including carbazole and four pyrethroid compounds. Chronic toxicity guidelines for pyrethroid compounds were exceeded at five sites. Biological conditions reflected a gradient in urban land use, with the less disturbed streams located in rural areas of Johnson County. About 19 percent of sites in 2010 (four sites) were fully supporting of aquatic life on the basis of the four metrics used by Kansas Department of Health and Environment to categorize sites. This is a notable difference compared to previous years when no sites (in 2003 and 2004) or just one site (in 2007) was fully supporting of aquatic life. Multimetric macroinvertebrate scores improved at the Big Bull Creek site where wastewater discharges were reduced in 2007. Environmental variables that consistently were highly negatively correlated with biological conditions were percent impervious surface and percent urban land use. In addition, density of stormwater outfall points adjacent to streams was significantly negatively correlated with biological conditions. Specific conductance of water and sum of PAH concentrations in streambed sediment also were significantly negatively correlated with biological conditions. Total nitrogen in water and total phosphorus in streambed sediment were correlated with most of the invertebrate variables, which is a notable difference from previous analyses using smaller datasets, in which nutrient relations were weak or not detected. The most important habitat variables were sinuosity, length and continuity of natural buffers, riffle substrate embeddedness, and substrate cover diversity, each of which was correlated with all invertebrate metrics including a 10-metric combined score. Correlation analysis indicated that if riparian and in-stream habitat conditions improve then so might invertebrate communities and stream biological quality. Sixty-two percent of the variance in macroinvertebrate community metrics was explained by the single environmental factor, percent impervious surface. Invertebrate responses to urbanization in Johnson County indicated linearity rather than identifiable thresholds. Multiple linear regression models developed for each of the four macroinvertebrate metrics used to determine aquatic-life-support status indicated that percent impervious surface, as a measure of urban land use, explained 34 to 67 percent of the variability in biological communities. Results indicate that although multiple factors are correlated with stream quality degradation, general urbanization, as indicated by impervious surface area or urban land use, consistently is determined to be the fundamental factor causing change in stream quality. Effects of urbanization on Johnson County streams are similar to effects described in national studies that assess effects of urbanization on stream health. Individually important environmental factors such as specific conductance of water, PAHs in streambed sediment, and stream buffer conditions, are affected by urbanization and, collectively, all contribute to stream impairments. Policies and management practices that may be most important in protecting the health of streams in Johnson County are those minimizing the effects of impervious surface, protecting stream corridors, and decreasing the loads of sediment, nutrients, and toxic chemicals that directly enter streams through stormwater runoff and discharges.

Kansas↗

USGS2021

An assessment of the economic potential of lignite and leonardite resources in the Williston Basin, North Dakota

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct an assessment study to identify areas that may have economic potential for the future extraction of lignite and leonardite resources in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. The study will be used by the BLM to assist with the preparation of a revised resource management plan for the Williston Basin, in accordance with BLM planning policies. The assessment of the economic potential of lignite resources required the establishment of criteria defining an economic lignite deposit. In consultation with the BLM, criteria were established to delineate drill holes that contained economic lignite beds. The criteria established are a minimum lignite bed thickness, a minimum cumulative lignite thickness, a maximum cumulative stripping ratio, and a maximum overburden. Likewise, an assessment of the economic potential of leonardite deposits required the establishment of criteria delineating drill holes that contained economic leonardite deposits. The criteria established are a minimum leonardite bed thickness, a minimum cumulative leonardite thickness, and a maximum overburden. The drill hole data utilized in this study were obtained from the National Coal Resources Data System database and from several coal companies. Data from more than 20,000 drill holes, both proprietary and nonproprietary, were used to compile areas of economic potential for lignite or leonardite. Areas delineated as having lignite or leonardite resources with economic potential, based on the established criteria, were present in 24 counties in the western portion of North Dakota. Areas of economic potential were delineated using a visual best-fit method without croplines. Areas defined as having economic potential for certain lignite beds or leonardite deposits may extend beyond known croplines in this study. Stratigraphically, the lignite and leonardite deposits in the Williston Basin in North Dakota are mostly found in the Paleocene Fort Union Formation. Thick (greater than 20 feet) and laterally extensive (greater than 5 square miles) lignite beds are present in the Fort Union Formation throughout the Sentinel Butte and Tongue River Members. Lignite beds are also present in the Ludlow Member of the Fort Union Formation, although they are not as numerous or thick as they are in the overlying Sentinel Butte and Tongue River Members. As a result of lateral facies changes and migrating fluvial channel complexes in the Fort Union Formation, lignite beds of varying thickness occupy different stratigraphic horizons vertically throughout the Williston Basin. The calculation of volumes for lignite and leonardite resources was not part of the scope of this study requested by the BLM, but a future study by the USGS may involve a comprehensive assessment of lignite resources and reserves in the Williston Basin. This future study could combine geologic data compiled in this study with geologic data from a previously unpublished 2019 assessment study by the USGS in the Williston Basin in eastern Montana. This future USGS study could also include the calculation of volumes for lignite resources and reserves, based on economic models derived using analogs from active mining operations in the Williston Basin and available spot market or contract coal prices.

North Dakota↗

USGS2019

Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management

Policies directing agencies and public land managers to incorporate climate change into management face several barriers. These stem, in part, from a disconnect between the information that is produced and the information needs of local resource managers. A disproportionate focus on the natural and physical sciences in climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment obscure understandings of complex social systems and the interactions and feedbacks in social-ecological systems. We use a qualitative case study of bison management on Department of the Interior-managed and tribal lands to explore how a social-science driven Determinants and Analogue Vulnerability Assessment (DAVA) can inform ecological response models, specifically simulation models that account for multiple drivers of change. First, we illustrate how a DAVA approach can help to: 1) identify key processes, entities, and interactions across scales; 2) document local impacts, indicators, and monitoring efforts of drought and climate; and 3) identify major tradeoffs and uncertainties. We then demonstrate how qualitative narratives can inform simulation models by: 1) prioritizing model components included in modeling efforts; 2) framing joint management and climate scenarios; and 3) parameterizing and evaluating model performance. We do this by presenting a conceptual joint agent-based/state-and-transition simulation modeling framework. Simulation models can represent multiple interacting variables and can identify surprising, emergent outcomes that might not be evident from qualitative analysis alone, and we argue that qualitative case studies can ground simulation models in local contexts and help make them more structurally realistic and useful. Together, these can provide a step toward developing actionable climate change adaptation strategies.

Climate Risk Management↗

USGS2015

Managing more than the mean: Using quantile regression to identify factors related to large elk groups

Summary Animal group size distributions are often right-skewed, whereby most groups are small, but most individuals occur in larger groups that may also disproportionately affect ecology and policy. In this case, examining covariates associated with upper quantiles of the group size distribution could facilitate better understanding and management of large animal groups. We studied wintering elk groups in Wyoming, where group sizes span several orders of magnitude, and issues of disease, predation and property damage are affected by larger group sizes. We used quantile regression to evaluate relationships between the group size distribution and variables of land use, habitat, elk density and wolf abundance to identify conditions important to larger elk groups. We recorded 1263 groups ranging from 1 to 1952 elk and found that across all quantiles of group size, group sizes were larger in open habitat and on private land, but the largest effect occurred between irrigated and non-irrigated land [e.g. the 90th quantile group size increased by 135 elk (95% CI = 42, 227) on irrigation]. Only upper quantile group sizes were positively related to broad-scale measures of elk density and wolf abundance. For wolf abundance, this effect was greater on elk groups found in open habitats and private land than those in closed habitats or public land. If we had limited our analysis to mean or median group sizes, we would not have detected these effects. Synthesis and applications . Our analysis of elk group size distributions using quantile regression suggests that private land, irrigation, open habitat, elk density and wolf abundance can affect large elk group sizes. Thus, to manage larger groups by removal or dispersal of individuals, we recommend incentivizing hunting on private land (particularly if irrigated) during the regular and late hunting seasons, promoting tolerance of wolves on private land (if elk aggregate in these areas to avoid wolves) and creating more winter range and varied habitats. Relationships to the variables of interest also differed by quantile, highlighting the importance of using quantile regression to examine response variables more completely to uncover relationships important to conservation and management.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

The Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System: A GIS-based tool for assessing groundwater resources

Groundwater is the source of drinking water for &sim;1.4 million people in the Coastal Plain Province of Maryland (USA). In addition, groundwater is essential for commercial, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approximately 0.757 × 109 L d –1 (200 million gallons/d) were withdrawn in 2010. As a result of decades of withdrawals from the coastal plain confined aquifers, groundwater levels have declined by as much as 70 m (230 ft) from estimated prepumping levels. Other issues posing challenges to long-term groundwater sustainability include degraded water quality from both man-made and natural sources, reduced stream base flow, land subsidence, and changing recharge patterns (drought) caused by climate change. In Maryland, groundwater supply is managed primarily by the Maryland Department of the Environment, which seeks to balance reasonable use of the resource with long-term sustainability. The chief goal of groundwater management in Maryland is to ensure safe and adequate supplies for all current and future users through the implementation of appropriate usage, planning, and conservation policies. To assist in that effort, the geographic information system (GIS)–based Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System was developed as a tool to help water managers access and visualize groundwater data for use in the evaluation of groundwater allocation and use permits. The system, contained within an ESRI ArcMap desktop environment, includes both interpreted and basic data for 16 aquifers and 14 confining units. Data map layers include aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces, aquifer extents, borehole information, hydraulic properties, time-series groundwater-level data, well records, and geophysical and lithologic logs. The aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces were generated specifically for the GIS system. The system also contains select groundwater-quality data and map layers that quantify groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The aquifer information system can serve as a pre- and postprocessing environment for groundwater-flow models for use in water-supply planning, development, and management. The system also can be expanded to include features that evaluate constraints to groundwater development, such as insufficient available drawdown, degraded groundwater quality, insufficient aquifer yields, and well-field interference. Ultimately, the aquifer information system is intended to function as an interactive Web-based utility that provides a broad array of information related to groundwater resources in Maryland’s coastal plain to a wide-ranging audience, including well drillers, consultants, academia, and the general public.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2021

The Robinson Forest environmental monitoring network: Long‐term evaluation of streamflow and precipitation quantity and stream‐water and bulk deposition chemistry in eastern Kentucky watersheds

The University of Kentucky (U KY) has owned Robinson Forest (37.460723° N, 83.158598° W) since 1923, conducting experiments crucial to understanding the environmental effects of land management in the region. Part of the management of Robinson Forest has been collection of environmental data, including precipitation quantity, bulk‐deposition chemistry, streamflow, stream‐water chemistry, and air and stream temperature. Over the years, these data have been collected and archived using various technologies and have been mostly inaccessible for research use – unedited and uncompiled, scattered across several spreadsheets and paper records. Through a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U KY, daily precipitation data for six stations and stream data from four watersheds in Robinson Forest have been compiled for 1971–2018, checked for transcription errors, and annotated for changes in methodologies. These data are available as a USGS data release at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FPLG1O . Improved accessibility of this data set provides an important research resource for understanding water quality in minimally effected forests in the region. Preliminary results indicate that these data present a valuable opportunity to evaluate linkages among atmospheric deposition and stream chemistry, the effects of environmental policy, such as the Clean Air Act, and effects from nearby land disturbance in the form of surface mining. Furthermore, these data fill a geographic and physiographic gap in what is available to examine deposition and streamflow patterns over the last 45 years, supplementing those long‐term records of research sites in northern (e.g., Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest), central (e.g., Fernow Experimental Forest) and southern Appalachia (e.g., Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory). As an oasis in the midst of significant surface mining activity, Robinson Forest presents a unique opportunity to understand environmental conditions characteristic of minimally disturbed forests similar to pre‐mining conditions in the Central Appalachian region.

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