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Automated delineation and characterization of watersheds for more than 3,000 surface-water-quality monitoring stations active in 2010 in Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, developed computer scripts and applications to automate the delineation of watershed boundaries and compute watershed characteristics for more than 3,000 surface-water-quality monitoring stations in Texas that were active during 2010. Microsoft Visual Basic applications were developed using ArcGIS ArcObjects to format the source input data required to delineate watershed boundaries. Several automated scripts and tools were developed or used to calculate watershed characteristics using Python, Microsoft Visual Basic, and the RivEX tool. Automated methods were augmented by the use of manual methods, including those done using ArcMap software. Watershed boundaries delineated for the monitoring stations are limited to the extent of the Subbasin boundaries in the USGS Watershed Boundary Dataset, which may not include the total watershed boundary from the monitoring station to the headwaters.

Texas

Using spatial capture–recapture to elucidate population processes and space-use in herpetological studies

The cryptic behavior and ecology of herpetofauna make estimating the impacts of environmental change on demography difficult; yet, the ability to measure demographic relationships is essential for elucidating mechanisms leading to the population declines reported for herpetofauna worldwide. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) methods are well suited to standard herpetofauna monitoring approaches. Individually identifying animals and their locations allows accurate estimates of population densities and survival. Spatial capture–recapture methods also allow estimation of parameters describing space-use and movement, which generally are expensive or difficult to obtain using other methods. In this paper, we discuss the basic components of SCR models, the available software for conducting analyses, and the experimental designs based on common herpetological survey methods. We then apply SCR models to Red-backed Salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ), to determine differences in density, survival, dispersal, and space-use between adult male and female salamanders. By highlighting the capabilities of SCR, and its advantages compared to traditional methods, we hope to give herpetologists the resource they need to apply SCR in their own systems.

Journal of Herpetology

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion-PESTCommander, a graphical user interface for file and run management across networks

Models of environmental systems have become increasingly complex, incorporating increasingly large numbers of parameters in an effort to represent physical processes on a scale approaching that at which they occur in nature. Consequently, the inverse problem of parameter estimation (specifically, model calibration) and subsequent uncertainty analysis have become increasingly computation-intensive endeavors. Fortunately, advances in computing have made computational power equivalent to that of dozens to hundreds of desktop computers accessible through a variety of alternate means: modelers have various possibilities, ranging from traditional Local Area Networks (LANs) to cloud computing. Commonly used parameter estimation software is well suited to take advantage of the availability of such increased computing power. Unfortunately, logistical issues become increasingly important as an increasing number and variety of computers are brought to bear on the inverse problem. To facilitate efficient access to disparate computer resources, the PESTCommander program documented herein has been developed to provide a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates the management of model files ("file management") and remote launching and termination of "slave" computers across a distributed network of computers ("run management"). In version 1.0 described here, PESTCommander can access and ascertain resources across traditional Windows LANs: however, the architecture of PESTCommander has been developed with the intent that future releases will be able to access computing resources (1) via trusted domains established in Wide Area Networks (WANs) in multiple remote locations and (2) via heterogeneous networks of Windows- and Unix-based operating systems. The design of PESTCommander also makes it suitable for extension to other computational resources, such as those that are available via cloud computing. Version 1.0 of PESTCommander was developed primarily to work with the parameter estimation software PEST; the discussion presented in this report focuses on the use of the PESTCommander together with Parallel PEST. However, PESTCommander can be used with a wide variety of programs and models that require management, distribution, and cleanup of files before or after model execution. In addition to its use with the Parallel PEST program suite, discussion is also included in this report regarding the use of PESTCommander with the Global Run Manager GENIE, which was developed simultaneously with PESTCommander.

Techniques and Methods

An application of Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming

Despite widespread recognition that social-value information is needed to inform stakeholders and decision makers regarding trade-offs in environmental management, it too often remains absent from ecosystem service assessments. Although quantitative indicators of social values need to be explicitly accounted for in the decision-making process, they need not be monetary. Ongoing efforts to map such values demonstrate how they can also be made spatially explicit and relatable to underlying ecological information. We originally developed Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) as a tool to assess, map, and quantify nonmarket values perceived by various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. With SolVES 2.0 we have extended the functionality by integrating SolVES with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps from available value and preference survey data and to produce more robust models describing the relationship between social values and ecosystems. The current study has two objectives: (1) evaluate how effectively the value index, a quantitative, nonmonetary social-value indicator calculated by SolVES, reproduces results from more common statistical methods of social-survey data analysis and (2) examine how the spatial results produced by SolVES provide additional information that could be used by managers and stakeholders to better understand more complex relationships among stakeholder values, attitudes, and preferences. To achieve these objectives, we applied SolVES to value and preference survey data collected for three national forests, the Pike and San Isabel in Colorado and the Bridger–Teton and the Shoshone in Wyoming. Value index results were generally consistent with results found through more common statistical analyses of the survey data such as frequency, discriminant function, and correlation analyses. In addition, spatial analysis of the social-value maps produced by SolVES provided information that was useful for explaining relationships between stakeholder values and forest uses. Our results suggest that SolVES can effectively reproduce information derived from traditional statistical analyses while adding spatially explicit, social-value information that can contribute to integrated resource assessment, planning, and management of forests and other ecosystems.

Colorado;Wyoming

Hydraulic modeling development and application in water resources engineering

The use of modeling has become widespread in water resources engineering and science to study rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions. For example, computer models are commonly used to forecast anthropogenic effects on the environment, and to help provide advanced mitigation measures against catastrophic events such as natural and dam-break floods. Linking hydraulic models to vegetation and habitat models has expanded their use in multidisciplinary applications to the riparian corridor. Implementation of these models in software packages on personal desktop computers has made them accessible to the general engineering community, and their use has been popularized by the need of minimal training due to intuitive graphical user interface front ends. Models are, however, complex and nontrivial, to the extent that even common terminology is sometimes ambiguous and often applied incorrectly. In fact, many efforts are currently under way in order to standardize terminology and offer guidelines for good practice, but none has yet reached unanimous acceptance. This chapter provides a view of the elements involved in modeling surface flows for the application in environmental water resources engineering. It presents the concepts and steps necessary for rational model development and use by starting with the exploration of the ideas involved in defining a model. Tangible form of those ideas is provided by the development of a mathematical and corresponding numerical hydraulic model, which is given with a substantial amount of detail. The issues of model deployment in a practical and productive work environment are also addressed. The chapter ends by presenting a few model applications highlighting the need for good quality control in model validation.

Book chapter

Simulated mean monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, 1993–2022

Elevated nitrogen loads are pervasive in the Long Island Sound, an estuary that receives freshwater and nutrients from both surface-water and groundwater discharge. Surface-water nitrogen loads to the Long Island Sound are relatively well characterized, but less is known about groundwater-transported nitrogen loads. Prior work on the northern shore of Long Island Sound (Connecticut and areas of New York and Rhode Island) suggested that groundwater travel times are relatively short (median less than 2 years) and that decade-long nutrient legacies are not widespread. Because the travel times are short, groundwater flow and nutrient loads likely vary substantially between months. In the current study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, developed a set of models to better characterize spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater-transported nitrogen loading from atmospheric deposition, septic systems, and fertilizers within the study area. The models provide an estimate, with uncertainty, of groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in the study area, filling a key gap in the nitrogen budget for Long Island Sound. The models also highlight the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen loading throughout the study area. The modeling workflow involved four models. (1) A soil-water-balance model was developed by using the Soil-Water-Balance software to simulate groundwater recharge across the study area for water years 2005 through 2022. The simulated mean monthly recharge from the soil-water-balance model was used as input into a groundwater-flow model. (2) The groundwater-flow model was developed by using the MODFLOW 6 software and data for water years 1993 through 2022 and simulates average monthly hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother method within the PEST++ software. The Iterative Ensemble Smoother method generates an ensemble of sets of parameter values, with each set producing reasonable simulated hydrologic parameter values. (3) An ensemble of MODPATH particle-tracking simulations were run to generate particle flow paths and travel times, with each simulation using a different set of the flow model parameters. (4) A nitrogen load model uses the MODPATH simulation outputs to track nitrogen from the land surface through multiple attenuation zones until it discharges into fresh or saline surface water. As with the groundwater-flow model, the nitrogen model simulated average monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads for water years 1993 through 2022. One novel aspect of the nitrogen load model is that the nitrogen attenuation parameters were calibrated to observed nitrogen loads. Across the ensemble of simulated nitrogen loads, the median study-area-wide monthly simulated nitrogen loads from the aquifer to Long Island Sound throughout the year ranged from 900 to 18,600 kilograms of nitrogen per day, with a median load of 5,100 kilograms of nitrogen per day. The simulated loads were based on average monthly conditions for water years 1993 through 2022. Loads were highest during the winter and early spring and lowest during the late summer. However, simulated travel times for groundwater and nitrogen loads discharged to Long Island Sound during summer were longer than travel times for groundwater and loads discharged during the winter, indicating that, on average, groundwater discharged during summer traveled along different, and longer, flow paths, than groundwater discharged during winter. This indicates that summer loads would respond more slowly to changes in nitrogen inputs at the water table than winter loads. Over the entire study area, approximately 15 percent of the simulated load is from atmospheric deposition sources, 30 to 40 percent is from fertilizer, and 50 to 60 percent is from septic systems. The final analysis of the study involved simulating the change in groundwater-transported nitrogen load in response to upgrading septic systems or reducing fertilizing inputs to areas of turf grass. Both management interventions reduced the groundwater-transported nitrogen load, and reductions were greater in areas with greater loads from septic systems or turf-grass fertilizers. The delay between management actions and substantial reductions in groundwater-transported nitrogen loads varied seasonally; loads during the late summer months remained elevated longer than the winter loads.

Connecticut, Rhode Island

Assessment of water quality and discharge in the Herring River, Wellfleet, Massachusetts, November 2015 to September 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, Cape Cod National Seashore of the National Park Service, and Friends of Herring River cooperated from 2015 to 2017 to assess nutrient concentrations and fluxes across the ocean-estuary boundary at a dike on the Herring River in Wellfleet, Massachusetts. The purpose of this assessment was to characterize environmental conditions prior to a future removal of the dike, which has restricted saltwater inputs into the Herring River watershed for more than 100 years. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were monitored continuously, and flow-weighted composite samples were collected approximately twice per month at the ocean-estuary boundary. Bidirectional discharge was computed for the U.S. Geological Survey Herring River at Chequessett Neck Road at Wellfleet, Massachusetts, streamgage (011058798) by using a stage-area rating and index-velocity ratings developed with acoustic Doppler current profile measurements made upstream and downstream from the dike. LOADEST regression modeling software was used to estimate nutrient fluxes (loads) from composite, paired nutrient concentration and discharge data in conjunction with continuous discharge data. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were also monitored continuously on two tributaries to the Herring River, Pole Dike Creek and Bound Brook, from late-May 2016 to mid-June 2017. Composite or discrete water samples were collected from the tributaries approximately twice per month in most months from late-May 2016 to mid-June 2017 and analyzed for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon. Flow-weighted concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and total nitrogen on the Herring River at the dike on the ebb tide generally varied between 0.01 and 0.1, 0.003 and 0.03, and 0.3 and 0.7 milligram per liter as nitrogen, respectively. Flow-weighted concentrations of orthophosphate, total dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus generally varied between 0.002 and 0.02, 0.003 and 0.06, and 0.03 and 0.1 milligram per liter as phosphorus, respectively, on the ebb tide. Flow-weighted concentrations of silicate and dissolved organic carbon on the ebb tide generally varied between 0.08 and 3.0 milligrams per liter of silica (silicon dioxide), and 1.7 and 5.6 milligrams per liter of carbon, respectively. Ebb tide concentrations of nitrate were highest in winter and lowest in summer. By contrast, ebb tide concentrations of phosphorus species were highest in late summer and early fall and lowest in winter. Silica and dissolved organic carbon did not exhibit systematic variation in seasonal concentrations. There was uncertainty in estimates of nutrient fluxes, but the LOADEST-estimated fluxes indicated that annual (and in almost all cases seasonal) exports (ebb tides) exceeded inputs (flood tides). Ebb tide concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, total nitrogen, and silica were positively correlated with antecedent cumulative 7-day precipitation.

Massachusetts

Vulnerability of the uppermost ground water to contamination in the greater Denver area, Colorado

Information about vulnerability of ground water to contamination is needed to facilitate ground-water management. Vulnerability of ground water refers to the intrinsic characteristics that determine the sensitivity of the water to being adversely affected by an imposed contaminant load. Within the greater Denver area, vulnerability of the uppermost ground water to contamination from the surface was assessed by considering the intrinsic characteristics included in a method developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Water Well Association, the DRASTIC method. The seven geohydrologic characteristics considered are: (1) Aquifer media, (2) hydraulic conductivity, (3) unsaturated media, (4) depth to water, (5) recharge, (6) soil media, and (7) land-surface slope. Recharge from precipitation generally is less than 2 inches per year; no effort was made to quantify the variation of recharge throughout the study area. Data for geology, depth to water, soils, and elevation were obtained and processed to produce maps of the other six characteristics. Spatial and attribute data for these maps were stored and processed by geographic-information-system software to produce a map showing vulnerability of the uppermost ground water to contamination from the surface. This report describes the assessment of each geohydrologic characteristic and the 157 vulnerability response units that were delineated within the greater Denver area. These response units are unique with respect to the geohydrologic characteristics considered. The uppermost ground water within each of the vulnerability response units are described in a series of tables, which include qualitative and selected quantitative data and the vulnerability rating assigned for each of the seven geohydrologic characteristics.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Integrating multisource land use and land cover data

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) land use and land cover (LULC) program, the USGS in cooperation with the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) is collecting and integrating LULC data for a standard USGS 1:100,000-scale product. The LULC data collection techniques include interpreting spectrally clustered Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images; interpreting 1-meter resolution digital panchromatic orthophoto images; and, for comparison, aggregating locally available large-scale digital data of urban areas. The area selected is the Vancouver, WA-OR quadrangle, which has a mix of urban, rural agriculture, and forest land. Anticipated products include an integrated LULC prototype data set in a standard classification scheme referenced to the USGS digital line graph (DLG) data of the area and prototype software to develop digital LULC data sets. This project will evaluate a draft standard LULC classification system developed by the USGS for use with various source material and collection techniques. Federal, State, and local governments, and private sector groups will have an opportunity to evaluate the resulting prototype software and data sets and to provide recommendations. It is anticipated that this joint research endeavor will increase future collaboration among interested organizations, public and private, for LULC data collection using common standards and tools.

Open-File Report

Evaluation of an impulse-response emulator for groundwater contaminant transport modeling

There is a significant need to develop decision support tools capable of delivering accurate representations of environmental conditions, such as ground and surface water solute concentrations, in a timely and computationally efficient manner. Such tools can be leveraged to assess a large number of potential management strategies for mitigating non-point source pollutants. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the impulse-response emulation approach to approximate process-based groundwater model estimates of solute transport from MODFLOW and MT3D over a wide range of model inputs and parameters, with the goal of assessing where in parameter space the assumptions underlying this emulation approach are valid. The impulse-response emulator was developed using the sensitivity analysis utilities in the PEST++ software suite and is capable of approximating MODFLOW/MT3D estimates of solute transport over a large portion of the parameter space tested, except in cases where the Courant number is above 0.5. Across all runs tested, the highest percent errors were at the plume fronts. These results suggest that the impulse-response approach may be suitable for emulation of solute transport models for a wide range of cases, except when high-resolution outputs are needed, or when very low concentrations at plume edges are of particular interest.

Groundwater

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin

Vessel surveys for marine birds in the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico): Protocol manual (2017–2025)

This manual provides contextual background and detailed instructions for survey procedures that were used to collect, enter, archive, and analyze digitally-entered field data collected for marine birds during three large-vessel survey projects in the northern Gulf of America (also Gulf of Mexico, hereafter “Gulf”). Projects using this protocol included the Gulf of Mexico Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species (GoMMAPPS: 2017-2018), the Vessel Surveys for Abundance and Distribution of Marine Mammals and Seabirds (VSAD: 2023-2024), and certain repositioning legs of the Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species (AMAPPS: 2021, 2023). Based substantially on Ballance and Force (2011), the protocol used in the Gulf is based on a standardized 300 m wide strip transect using software architecture available in program SeeBird (v.4.3.7), a data collection program developed by Robert Holland at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA. Survey protocols relied on the digital entering of standardized metadata linked to sightings of seabirds (e.g., species, number, location, distance bin, association[s], behavior, flight direction, flight height, angle from ship, age, sex, plumage, and optional comments) as well as other protected species. SeeBird has additional modules that may be used to input data on mixed-species seabird flocks and flying fish (only the latter was used in the Gulf). SeeBird includes “user-driven” commands issued through the keyboard, touch screen, and/or mouse, many of which are aided by drop-down menus that prompt the user options that are available for input. In addition, the program features “event–driven” inputs updated at intervals selected by the user, and that also record exact time and location of such edits. We describe how SeeBird was adapted in the Gulf both to run directly via serial connections from the ship’s navigation system and to operate independently from the ship through a satellite-derived GPS feed. This user manual also gives information about: procedures used to document flying fish abundance on Gulf surveys; how to use the Beaufort scale for standardizing wind force and sea state environmental conditions; how to make and use a hand-held rangefinder for delimiting strip transect bin distances; additional functionalities in SeeBird for which user guides are not available; file-naming, file-archiving, and file location conventions used on Gulf marine bird surveys; protocols used in the Gulf for describing relative abundance of the macro-alga Sargassum as an environmental covariate; the standardized four-letter taxa codes (summarized in a SpeciesCode.txt file) used in the Gulf for denoting species, other taxonomic, and event categories as inputs to SeeBird; an Excel example spreadsheet that has successfully imported SeeBird’s ASCII text file; procedural steps to import, edit, and archive into Excel ASCII text files from SeeBird; initialization instructions for starting up program SeeBird on a Panasonic ToughBook™ that relies on integrated, satellite-derived GPS, and for writing “S” (seabirds + other taxa) and “E” (flying fish) ASCII files to a folder or subfolder other than the default root location on the laptop that contains program SeeBird; how to trouble-shoot miscellaneous start-up problems with program SeeBird; how to add new four-letter codes (into a SpeciesCode.txt file) when additional taxa or objects of interest are encountered. The primary objective of this manual is to archive a permanent, replicable history of survey methodology to facilitate continuity with comparable future projects that may be conducted in the Gulf. A secondary objective is to describe why and how program SeeBird was applied and adapted specifically for operating in Gulf survey conditions. As of late 2025, user guides for software program SeeBird were no longer readily accessible, so this manual serves also to address that gap.

Northern Gulf of America

Archive of digital boomer seismic reflection data collected during USGS cruises 94GFP01, 95GFP01, 96GFP01, 97GFP01, and 98GFP02 in Lakes Pontchartrain, Borgne, and Maurepas, Louisiana, 1994-1998

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the University of New Orleans, the Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the University of Georgia, conducted five geophysical surveys of Lakes Pontchartrain, Borgne, and Maurepas in Louisiana from 1994 to 1998. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer seismic reflection data, trackline maps, navigation files, observers' logbooks, GIS information, and formal FGDC metadata. In addition, a filtered and gained digital GIF image of each seismic profile is provided. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansion of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975) and may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU). Examples of SU processing scripts and in-house (USGS) software for viewing SEG-Y headers (Zihlman, 1992) are also provided. Processed profile images, trackline maps, navigation files, and formal metadata may be viewed with a web browser, and scanned handwritten logbooks may be viewed with Adobe Reader. To access the information contained on these discs, open the file 'index.htm' located at the top level of the discs using a web browser. This report also contains hyperlinks to USGS collaborators and other agencies. These links are only accessible if access to the Internet is available while viewing these documents.

Open-File Report

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks , flows , and converters . Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

California

Computer programs for obtaining and analyzing daily mean streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System web site

Five computer programs were developed for obtaining and analyzing streamflow from the National Water Information System (NWISWeb). The programs were developed as part of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, to develop a stochastic empirical loading and dilution model. The programs were developed because reliable, efficient, and repeatable methods are needed to access and process streamflow information and data. The first program is designed to facilitate the downloading and reformatting of NWISWeb streamflow data. The second program is designed to facilitate graphical analysis of streamflow data. The third program is designed to facilitate streamflow-record extension and augmentation to help develop long-term statistical estimates for sites with limited data. The fourth program is designed to facilitate statistical analysis of streamflow data. The fifth program is a preprocessor to create batch input files for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency DFLOW3 program for calculating low-flow statistics. These computer programs were developed to facilitate the analysis of daily mean streamflow data for planning-level water-quality analyses but also are useful for many other applications pertaining to streamflow data and statistics. These programs and the associated documentation are included on the CD-ROM accompanying this report. This report and the appendixes on the CD-ROM describe the implementation and use of the programs and the interpretation of results from the programs. The body of this report provides an overview of the five programs included on this CD-ROM. The appendixes are the software manuals for each program. These manuals describe statistical and numerical methods used to implement each program, input-file formats, output-file formats, installation of the programs, and use of the programs. Each appendix is written as a self-contained manual because each program may have many uses alone or in tandem with other programs on the CD-ROM. Each of these programs uses graphical user interface that follows standard Microsoft Windows interface conventions.

Open-File Report

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why ); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how ); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who ); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what ). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Ecological Applications

Modeling environmental bias and computing velocity field from data of Terra Nova Bay GPS network in Antarctica by means of a quasi-observation processing approach

A semi-permanent GPS network of about 30 vertices has been installed at Terra Nova Bay (TNB) near Ross Sea in Antarctica. A permanent GPS station TNB1 based on an Ashtech Z-XII dual frequency P-code GPS receiver with ASH700936D_M Choke Ring Antenna has been mounted on a reinforced concrete pillar built on bedrock since October 1998 and has recorded continuously up to the present. The semi-permanent network has been routinely surveyed every summer using high quality dual frequency GPS receivers with 24 hour sessions at 15 sec rate; data, metadata and solutions will be available to the scientific community at (http://www.geodant.unimore.it). We present the results of a distributed session approach applied to processing GPS data of the TNB GPS network, and based on Gamit/Globk 10.2-3 GPS analysis software. The results are in good agreement with other authors' computations and with many of the theoretical models.

Open-File Report

Depth to water in the western Snake River Plain and surrounding tributary valleys, southwestern Idaho and eastern Oregon, calculated using water levels from 1980 to 1988

The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in Idaho is being assessed by the ISHW/DEQ (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Division of Environmental Quality), using a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency DRASTIC methods (Allers and others, 1985). The project was designed as a technique to: (1) Assign priorities for development of ground-water management and monitoring programs; (2) build support for, and public awareness of, vulnerability of ground water to contamination; (3) assist in the development of regulatory programs; and (4) provide access to technical data through the use of a GIS (geographic information system) (C. Grantham, Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, written commun., 1989). Digital representation of first-encountered water below land surface is an important element in evaluating vulnerability of ground water to contamination. Depth-to-water values were developed using existing data and computer software to construct a GIS data set to be combined with a soils data set developed by the SCS (Soul Conservation Service) and the IDHW/WQB (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare/Water Quality Bureau), and a recharge data set developed by the IDWR/RSF (idaho Department of Water Resources/Remote Sensing Facility). The USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) has developed digital depth-to-water values for eleven 1:100,00-scale quadrangles on the eastern Snake River Plain and surrounding tributary valleys.

Idaho