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A catalogue of Do's and Don'ts in the modeling of environmental systems

Modeling plays a vital role in understanding and managing complex environmental systems, but its credibility and quality depend heavily on a comprehensive set of defensible model activities and practices, especially when the system of interest is plagued with uncertainties and conflicting stakeholder perspectives. This paper proposes a catalogue of Do's and Don'ts to guide modelers in addressing the many pertinent considerations through the whole modeling cycle. This practical tool provides advice on approaching modeling effectively through adhering to good modeling practice. It emphasizes model choices that align with the model purpose and context, and the justification and documentation of modeling decisions and assumptions. Managing uncertainty is a core consideration. The identification, assessment and reporting of these uncertainties is important across the entire modeling process, which spans problem framing, technical design, implementation and application phases. Such good practices are critical for transparency and reliability of the modeling.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental contaminants and the management of bat populations in the United States

Food-chain residues of organochlorine pesticides probably have been involved in declines of some U.S. bat populations; examples include free-tailed bats at Carlsbad Cavern, New Mexico, and the endangered gray bat at sites in Missouri and Alabama. If a long-lived contaminant has not been dispersed in large amounts over large areas, its impact may be controlled by administrative action that stops its use or other environmental discharge, or that results in physical isolation of localized contamination so that it no longer enters food chains

Book chapter

Evidence that watershed nutrient management practices effectively reduce estrogens in environmental waters

We evaluate the impacts of different nutrient management strategies on the potential for co-managing estrogens and nutrients in environmental waters of the Potomac watershed of the Chesapeake Bay. These potential co-management approaches represent agricultural and urban runoff, wastewater treatment plant effluent, and combined sewer overflow replacements. Twelve estrogenic compounds and their metabolites were analysed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Estrogenic activity (E 2 Eq) was measured by in vitro bioassay. We detected estrone E 1 (0.05–6.97 ng L −1 ) and estriol E 3 (below detection-8.13 ng L −1 ) and one conjugated estrogen (estrone-3-sulfate E 1 -3S; below detection-8.13 ng L −1 ). E 1 was widely distributed and positively correlated with E 2 Eq, water temperature, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Among nonpoint sources, E 2 Eq, and concentrations of E 1 , soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) decreased by 51–61%, 77–82%, 62–64%, 4–16% in restored urban and agricultural streams with best management practices (BMPs) relative to unrestored streams without BMPs. In a wastewater treatment plant (Blue Plains WWTP), >94% of E 1 , E 1 -3S, E 3 , E 2 Eq and TDN were removed while SRP increased by 305% during nitrification/denitrification as a part of advanced wastewater treatment. Consequently, E 1 and TDN concentrations in WWTP effluents were comparable or even lower than those observed in the receiving stream or river waters, and the effects of wastewater discharges on downstream E 1 and TDN concentrations were minor. Highest E 2 Eq value and concentrations of E1, E3, and TDN were detected in combined sewer overflow (CSO). This study suggests that WWTP upgrades with biological nutrient removal, CSO management, and certain agricultural and urban BMPs for nutrient controls have the potential to remove estrogens from point and nonpoint sources along with other contaminants in streams and rivers.

Maryland

Regeneration of Salicaceae riparian forests in the Northern Hemisphere: A new framework and management tool

Human activities on floodplains have severely disrupted the regeneration of foundation riparian shrub and tree species of the Salicaceae family ( Populus and Salix spp.) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Restoration ecologists initially tackled this problem from a terrestrial perspective that emphasized planting. More recently, floodplain restoration activities have embraced an aquatic perspective, inspired by the expanding practice of managing river flows to improve river health (environmental flows) . However, riparian Salicaceae species occupy floodplain and riparian areas, which lie at the interface of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems along watercourses . Thus, their regeneration depends on a complex interaction of hydrologic and geomorphic processes that have shaped key life-cycle requirements for seedling establishment . Ultimately, restoration needs to integrate these concepts to succeed. However, while regeneration of Salicaceae is now reasonably well-understood, the literature reporting restoration actions on Salicaceae regeneration is sparse, and a specific theoretical framework is still missing. Here, we have reviewed 105 peer-reviewed published experiences in restoration of Salicaceae forests, including 91 projects in 10 world regions, to construct a decision tree to inform restoration planning through explicit links between the well-studied biophysical requirements of Salicaceae regeneration and 17 specific restoration actions, the most popular being planting (in 55% of the projects), land contouring (30%), removal of competing vegetation (30%), site selection (26%), and irrigation (24%). We also identified research gaps related to Salicaceae forest restoration and discuss alternative, innovative and feasible approaches that incorporate the human component.

Journal of Environmental Management

Historical files from Federal Government mineral exploration-assistance programs, 1950 to 1974

The Defense Minerals Administration (DMA), Defense Minerals Exploration Administration (DMEA), and Office of Minerals Exploration (OME) mineral exploration programs were active over the period 1950–1974. Under these programs, the Federal Government contributed financial assistance in the exploration for certain strategic and critical minerals. The information about a mining property that was collected under these programs was placed in files called dockets. A docket is a collection of material (application, contract, correspondence, maps, reports, results) about a property for which an individual applied for exploration assistance from the Federal Government. Information found in dockets describe where mineral deposits were examined, what was found, and whether it was mined. As such, they provide very useful information to private industry regarding potential and non-potential prospect areas, provide the U.S. Geological Survey with useful information on mineral occurrences that are used in national assessments for particular mineral deposits, and provide other U.S. Federal agencies (Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Land Management, and Environmental Protection Agency) information relevant to land management, permitting, and leasing.

Data Series

Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

Environmental Management

Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem. The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

Report

Managing visitor impacts in parks: A multi-method study of the effectiveness of alternative management practices

How can recreation use be managed to control associated environmental impacts? What management practices are most effective and why? This study explored these and related questions through a series of experimental ?treatments? and associated ?controls? at the summit of Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park, a heavily used and environmentally fragile area. The treatments included five management practices designed to keep visitors on maintained trails, and these practices ranged from ?indirect? (information/education) to ?direct? (a fence bordering the trail). Research methods included unobtrusive observation of visitors to determine the percentage of visitors who walked off-trail and a follow-up visitor survey to explore why management practices did or didn?t work. All of the management practices reduced the percentage of visitors who walked off-trail. More aggressive applications of indirect practices were more effective than less aggressive applications, and the direct management practice of fencing was the most effective of all. None of the indirect management practices reduced walking off-trail to a degree that is likely to control damage to soil and vegetation at the study site. Study findings suggest that an integrated suite of direct and indirect management practices be implemented on Cadillac Mountain (and other, similar sites) that includes a) a regulation requiring visitors to stay on the maintained trail, b) enforcement of this regulation as needed, c) unobtrusive fencing along the margins of the trail, d) redesign of the trail to extend it, widen it in key places, and provide short spur trails to key ?photo points?, and e) an aggressive information/education program to inform visitors of the regulation to stay on the trail and the reasons for it. These recommendations are a manifestation of what may be an emerging principle of park and outdoor recreation management: intensive use requires intensive management.

Journal of Park and Recreation Administration

Quantifying ecological integrity of terrestrial systems to inform management of multiple-use public lands in the United States

The concept of ecological integrity has been applied widely to management of aquatic systems, but still is considered by many to be too vague and difficult to quantify to be useful for managing terrestrial systems, particularly across broad areas. Extensive public lands in the western United States are managed for diverse uses such as timber harvest, livestock grazing, energy development, and wildlife conservation, some of which may degrade ecological integrity. We propose a method for assessing ecological integrity on multiple-use lands that identifies the components of integrity and levels in the ecological hierarchy where the assessment will focus, and considers existing policies and management objectives. Both natural reference and societally desired environmental conditions are relevant comparison points. We applied the method to evaluate the ecological integrity of shrublands in Nevada, yielding an assessment based on six indicators of ecosystem structure, function, and composition, including resource- and stressor-based indicators measured at multiple scales. Results varied spatially and among indicators. Invasive plant cover and surface development were highest in shrublands in northwest and southeast Nevada. Departure from reference conditions of shrubland area, composition, patch size, and connectivity was highest in central and northern Nevada. Results may inform efforts to control invasive species and restore shrublands on federal lands in Nevada. We suggest that ecological integrity assessments for multiple-use lands be grounded in existing policies and monitoring programs, incorporate resource- and stressor-based metrics, rely on publicly available data collected at multiple spatial scales, and quantify both natural reference and societally desired resource conditions.

Nevada

The value of US coral reefs for flood risk reduction

Habitats, such as coral reefs, can mitigate increasing flood damages through coastal protection services. We provide a fine-scale, national valuation of the flood risk reduction benefits of coral habitats to people, property, economies and infrastructure. Across 3,100 km of US coastline, the top-most 1 m of coral reefs prevents the 100-yr flood from growing by 23% (113 km 2 ), avoiding flooding to 53,800 (62%) people, US\$2.7 billion (90%) damage to buildings and US\$2.6 billion (49%) in indirect economic effects. We estimate the hazard risk reduction benefits of US coral reefs to exceed US$1.8 billion annually. Many highly developed coastlines in Florida and Hawaii receive annual benefits of over US\$10 million km –1 , whereas US reefs critically reduce flooding of vulnerable populations. This quantification of spatial risk reduction can help to prioritize joint actions in flood management and environmental conservation, opening new opportunities to support reef management with hazard mitigation funding.

Nature Sustainability

Are environmental DNA methods ready for aquatic invasive species management?

Multiple studies have demonstrated environmental (e)DNA detections of rare, invasive species. However, invasive species managers struggle with using eDNA results because detections might not indicate species presence. We evaluated if eDNA methods have matured to a point where they can be widely applied to aquatic invasive species management. We found that eDNA methods meet legal standards for being admissible as evidence in most courts, suggesting that eDNA method reliability is not the problem. Rather, we suggest that the interface between results and management needs attention since there are few tools for integrating uncertainty into decision-making. Solutions include decision support trees based on molecular best practices that integrate the temporal and spatial trends in eDNA positives relative to human risk tolerance.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Alabama

Placing environmental DNA monitoring for new detections into perspective: Fishes in the Milwaukee River, Wisconsin

Invasive species management frameworks, such as the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species, use monitoring programs to detect new species occurrences. Resource managers use environmental DNA (eDNA) as one tool for these monitoring programs. An eDNA detection in a new location may lack perspective for resource managers and researchers because of the rarity of potential invaders and the randomness in their dispersal and detection. An example monitoring program is the eDNA-based sampling approach used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for bigheaded carps Hypophthalmichthys spp. in the upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Basins that collects hundreds of water samples per event. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service detected a single positive sample for Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis during the spring 2021 sampling event in the Kinnickinnic River within the Milwaukee River Basin, and detected a second single positive sample for bigheaded carps during the fall 2021 sampling event in the Milwaukee River. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service did not detect any bigheaded carps in previous years (2015 to 2020) or in either the spring or fall 2022 sampling events. These detections lacked perspective, such as detection numbers for other species. We reanalyzed the 2021 and 2022 samples for four existing species of fish: two fairly common species (Common Carp Cyprinus carpio and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum ) and two fairly rare species (Burbot Lota lota and Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella ). We detected Common Carp during all four sampling events, Gizzard Shad during three of four sampling events, and Burbot and Grass Carp during two of four sampling events. These results demonstrated that current sampling efforts could detect other species, and bigheaded carp eDNA was not common in the Milwaukee River compared to these species. More specifically, this finding indicates bigheaded carp eDNA detections are as rare as, or rarer than, Grass Carp eDNA detections, a recent invader to the basin. Our findings also demonstrated how reanalyzing eDNA samples after positive detections for targeted species can help managers understand the context of the detections and provide perspective for the relative abundance of the targeted species. Additionally, our results highlight the importance of completing long-term eDNA-based monitoring rather than a single sampling or inventory event. These detections may have been missed in a single year or sampling event, whereas a multiyear monitoring program provides an opportunity to observe trends through time.

Wisconsin

Assessing the vulnerability of military installations in the coterminous United States to potential biome shifts resulting from rapid climate change

Climate change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge future military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, invasive species, etc. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low - B1, moderate - A1B and high - A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess vulnerability of installations (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature relative to historical conditions. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of military training and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased atmospheric temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in the coming decades in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connectic

Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: Evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework

A map of ecological regions of the conterminous United States, first published in 1987, has been greatly refined and expanded into a hierarchical spatial framework in response to user needs, particularly by state resource management agencies. In collaboration with scientists and resource managers from numerous agencies and institutions in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the framework has been expanded to cover North America, and the original ecoregions (now termed Level III) have been refined, subdivided, and aggregated to identify coarser as well as more detailed spatial units. The most generalized units (Level I) define 10 ecoregions in the conterminous U.S., while the finest-scale units (Level IV) identify 967 ecoregions. In this paper, we explain the logic underpinning the approach, discuss the evolution of the regional mapping process, and provide examples of how the ecoregions were distinguished at each hierarchical level. The variety of applications of the ecoregion framework illustrates its utility in resource assessment and management.

Environmental Management

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this – the ‘Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife’. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Journal of Environmental Management

May the forethought (and studies) be with your campsite-protection planning!

Visitation has reached record levels along the Appalachian Trail, a 2000+ mile footpath extending from Maine to Georgia along the crest of the Appalachian Mountains. Camping impacts associated with this use have also expanded rapidly in recent years, particularly in popular National Parks and at attraction features such as lakes and ponds. This article reviews recreation ecology research on camping impacts and their relationship to amount of use and environmental attributes. Management options for responding to camping management problems are described, including the manipulation of use-related, environmental, and managerial factors.

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