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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Hazards and climatic impact of subduction‐zone volcanism: A global and historical perspective

Subduction-zone volcanoes account for more than 80 percent of the documented eruptions in recorded history, even though volcanism--deep and, hence, unobserved--along the global oceanic ridge systems overwhelmingly dominates in eruptive output. Because subduction-zone eruptions can be highly explosive, they pose some of the greatest natural hazards to society if the eruptions occur in densely populated regions. Of the six worst volcanic disasters since A.D. 1600, five have occurred at subduction-zone volcanoes: Unzen, Japan (1792); Tambora, Indonesia (1815); Krakatau, Indonesia (1883); Mont Pe16e, Martinique (1902); and Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia (1985). Sulfuric acid droplets in stratospheric volcanic clouds produced by voluminous explosive eruptions can influence global climate. The 1815 Tambora eruption caused in 1816 a decrease of several Celsius degrees in average summer temperature in Europe and the eastern United States and Canada, resulting in the well-known "Year Without Summer." Similarly, the eruptions of E1 Chichon (Mexico) in 1982 and of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991 lowered average temperatures for the northern hemisphere by as much as 0.2 to 0.5 øC, respectively. However, eruption-induced climatic effects of historical eruptions appear to be short-lived, lasting at most for only a few years.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Flood risks and the willingness to purchase flood insurance

Computer simulation experiments were conducted to determine the effects of alternative sources of uncertainty on the willingness to pay for flood insurance. Two alternative insurance protection schemes were investigated: coinsurance and fixed coverage. The question investigated here is to what extent does the insurance scheme influence how purchasers respond to flood risks? Floods were assumed to be log normally distributed and the effects on the purchase of insurance of uncertainties in the parameters of the distribution were explored using response surface analysis. Results indicate that fixed coverage insurance provisions shift most of the uncertainty in the physical parameters governing natural disaster occurrences away from the insuree and onto the insurer. The results also show that the form of the damage function has little effect on the demand for flood insurance.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Medieval forewarning of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand

Recent centuries provide no precedent for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, either on the coasts it devastated or within its source area. The tsunami claimed nearly all of its victims on shores that had gone 200 years or more without a tsunami disaster. The associated earthquake of magnitude 9.2 defied a Sumatra-Andaman catalogue that contains no nineteenth-century or twentieth-century earthquake larger than magnitude 7.9 (ref. 2). The tsunami and the earthquake together resulted from a fault rupture 1,500 km long that expended centuries' worth of plate convergence. Here, using sedimentary evidence for tsunamis, we identify probable precedents for the 2004 tsunami at a grassy beach-ridge plain 125 km north of Phuket. The 2004 tsunami, running 2 km across this plain, coated the ridges and intervening swales with a sheet of sand commonly 5-20 cm thick. The peaty soils of two marshy swales preserve the remains of several earlier sand sheets less than 2,800 years old. If responsible for the youngest of these pre-2004 sand sheets, the most recent full-size predecessor to the 2004 tsunami occurred about 550-700 years ago. ??2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature↗
USGS2022

Seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery

Rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance is important for emergency responses and rehabilitation by providing accurate and timely information about secondary hazards and impacts, including landslide, liquefaction, and building damage. Despite the extensive collection of geospatial data and satellite images, existing physics-based and data-driven methods suffer from low estimation performance due to the complex and event-specific causal dependencies underlying the cascading processes of earthquake-triggered hazards and impacts. Herein, we present a rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system that leverages advanced statistical causal inference and remote sensing techniques. The unique feature of this system is that it provides accurate and high-resolution estimations on a regional scale by jointly inferring multiple hazards and building damage from satellite images through modeling their causal dependencies. We evaluate our system on multiple seismic events from diverse countries around the globe. Our results corroborate that incorporating causal dependencies significantly improves large-scale estimation accuracy for multiple hazards and impacts compared to existing systems. The results also reveal quantitative causal mechanisms among earthquake-triggered multi-hazard and impact for multiple seismic events. Our system establishes a new way to extract and utilize the complex interactions of multiple hazards and impacts for effective disaster responses and advancing understanding of seismic geological processes.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2026

Socio-ecological impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles urban fires on communities, neighborhoods, and homes

Human settlements are increasingly being impacted by urban fires initiated by wildfires. Metrics such as area burned and number of structures destroyed are important, but research often overlooks the socio-ecological complexity of urban fires. We study the impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles fires on two communities at the neighborhood and residential parcel scales. Geospatial analyses and econometric modeling explore the relationships between urban morphology, socio-demographic factors, and home destruction. Here we show that socio-ecological characteristics and scale are key in parsing the dynamics of urban fires. Also, new socio-demographic populations are being affected and urban morphology metrics are more important than vegetation cover. Despite parallels with 19 th and early 20 th century urban conflagrations, understanding these re-emerging urban fires requires transdisciplinary approaches and unique metrics. Investigating the socio-ecological scales and dynamics of urban fires provides a valuable next step towards understanding and adapting to the risk associated with these disasters.

California↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2023

Human and infrastructure exposure to large wildfires in the United States

An increasing number of wildfire disasters have occurred in recent years in the United States. Here we demonstrate that cumulative primary human exposure—the population residing within the perimeters of large wildfires—was 594,850 people from 2000 to 2019 across the contiguous United States (CONUS), 82% of which occurred in the western United States. Primary population exposure increased by 125% in the CONUS in the past two decades; it was noted that there were large statistical uncertainties in the trend analysis due to the short study timeline. Population dynamics from 2000 to 2019 alone accounted for 24% of the observed increase rate in human exposure, and an increased wildfire extent drove the majority of the observed trends. In addition, we document the widespread exposure of roads (412,155 km) and transmission powerlines (14,835 km) to large wildfires in the CONUS, with a relative increase of 58% and 70% in the past two decades, respectively. Our results highlight that deliberate mitigation and adaptation efforts to help societies cope with wildfires are ever more needed.

Nature Sustainability↗
USGS2017

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2004

Resolving global versus local/regional Pu sources in the environment using sector ICP-MS

Sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry is a versatile method for the determination of plutonium activities and isotopic compositions in samples containing this element at fallout levels. Typical detection limits for 239+240Pu are 0.1, 0.02 and 0.002 Bq kg -1Pu for samples sizes of 0.5 g, 3 g, and 50 g of soil, respectively. The application of sector ICP-MS-based Pu determinations is demonstrated in studies in sediment chronology, soil Pu inventory and depth distribution, and the provenance of global fallout versus local or regional Pu sources. A sediment core collected from Sloans Lake (Denver, Colorado, USA) exhibits very similar 137Cs and 239+240Pu activity profiles; 240Pu/239Pu atom ratios indicate possible small influences from the Nevada Test Site and/or the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site. An undisturbed soil profile from Lockett Meadow (Flagstaff, Arizona, USA) exhibits an exponential decrease in 239+240Pu activity versus depth; 240Pu/239Pu in the top 3 cm is slightly lower than the global fallout range of 0.180 ?? 0.014 due to possible regional influence of Nevada Test Site fallout. The 239??240Pu inventory at Lockett Meadow is 56 ?? 4 Bq m-2, consistent with Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude fallout. Archived NdF3 sources, prepared from Polish soils, demonstrate that substantial 239+240Pu from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster has been deposited in north eastern regions of Poland; compared to global fallout, Chernobyl Pu exhibits higher abundances of 240Pu and 241Pu. The ratios 240Pu/239pu and 241Pu/239Pu co-vary and range from 0.186-0.348 and 0.0029-0.0412, respectively, in forest soils (241Pu/239Pu = 0.2407??[240Pu/239Pu] - 0.0413; r2 = 0.9924). ?? The Royal Society of Chemistry 2004.

Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry↗
USGS2019

Effects of infiltration characteristics on the spatial-temporal evolution of stability of an interstate highway embankment

Infiltration-induced landslides are among the most common natural disasters threatening modern civilization, but conventional methods for studying the triggering mechanisms and predicting the occurrence of these slides are limited by incomplete consideration of underlying physical processes and the lack of precision inherent in limit-equilibrium analyses. To address this problem the spatial-temporal evolution of failure is investigated in a seasonally unstable section of interstate highway embankment, known as the Straight Creek landslide, Colorado. The study includes multi-year site investigation, monitoring, and numerical simulation using a rigorous hydromechanical framework along with a field of local factor of safety method. The sensitivity of episodic landslide reactivation to infiltration characteristics is evaluated. Results indicate that annual cumulative snowmelt infiltration, which typically accounts for approximately 75% of total annual cumulative infiltration and occurs over a short period in the spring, has the most substantial impact on slide activation. The rate of snowmelt infiltration varies independently of annual cumulative snowmelt infiltration and cumulative infiltration in the previous year, but still affects antecedent soil moisture conditions at the onset of snowmelt infiltration and therefore also the level of slide activation. These findings are used to establish specific thresholds for exacerbated slide movement using annual snowpack accumulation, forecasted snowmelt rate, and the previous year’s snowmelt, an approach which may be applied for predicting movement at this and other recurring or potential slide sites.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Flood risk awareness during the 2011 floods in the central United States: showcasing the importance of hydrologic data and interagency collaboration

Floods have long had a major impact on society and the environment, evidenced by the more than 1,500 federal disaster declarations since 1952 that were associated with flooding. Calendar year 2011 was an epic year for floods in the United States, from the flooding on the Red River of the North in late spring to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri River basin floods in the spring and summer to the flooding caused by Hurricane Irene along the eastern seaboard in August. As a society, we continually seek to reduce flood impacts, with these efforts loosely grouped into two categories: mitigation and risk awareness. Mitigation involves such activities as flood assessment, flood control implementation, and regulatory activities such as storm water and floodplain ordinances. Risk awareness ranges from issuance of flood forecasts and warnings to education of lay audiences about the uncertainties inherent in assessing flood probability and risk. This paper concentrates on the issue of flood risk awareness, specifically the importance of hydrologic data and good interagency communication in providing accurate and timely flood forecasts to maximize risk awareness. The 2011 floods in the central United States provide a case study of the importance of hydrologic data and the value of proper, timely, and organized communication and collaboration around the collection and dissemination of that hydrologic data in enhancing the effectiveness of flood forecasting and flood risk awareness.

Leadership and Management in Engineering↗
USGS2016

Economic consequence analysis of the Arkstorm scenario

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajectory. The methodology serves as a template for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of disasters and the influence of resilience in reducing BI losses.

National Hazards Review↗
USGS2022

Assessing human resources development in volcano observatories using the knowledge, attitude, and practice survey

The purpose of this study was to assess the role played by the International Training Course, given by the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes (CSAV) at the University of Hawai’i at Hilo, in the development of human resources for volcano observatory staff around the world. The study design included a literature review, interviews with representatives from 10 national volcano observatories, and electronic surveys designed and conducted by Florida International University, targeting graduates of training courses sponsored by the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), a cooperative partnership between the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). The knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) method was used to develop a survey and a composite KAP index. Of the 92 individuals who answered the survey, 47 had completed the CSAV course. Two groups were formed from the survey respondents: (1) 47 people who were CSAV graduates; and (2) 45 people who did not take CSAV training. An independent samples t "> t t test and a one-way multivariate analysis were conducted to compare the KAP index and the three subindices. The heads of the volcano observatories identified the CSAV International Training as one of the most useful educational offerings relevant to volcano observatory operations available worldwide. The statistical analysis showed significant differences in the KAP index, knowledge subindex, and practice subindex between the two study groups. Results indicate that CSAV graduates are in a better position to attain self-sufficiency in studying and monitoring volcanoes, and by doing so, contribute more effectively to mitigation efforts for volcanic unrest and eruptions.

Natural Hazards Review↗
USGS2013

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Long-term impacts of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on sea otters, assessed through age-dependent mortality patterns

We use age distributions of sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) found dead on beaches of western Prince William Sound, Alaska, between 1976 and 1998 in conjunction with time-varying demographic models to test for lingering effects from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our results show that sea otters in this area had decreased survival rates in the years following the spill and that the effects of the spill on annual survival increased rather than dissipated for older animals. Otters born after the 1989 spill were affected less than those alive in March 1989, but do show continuing negative effects through 1998. Population-wide effects of the spill appear to have slowly dissipated through time, due largely to the loss of cohorts alive during the spill. Our results demonstrate that the difficult-to-detect long-term impacts of environmental disasters may still be highly significant and can be rigorously analyzed by using a combination of population data, modeling techniques, and statistical analyses.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2008

A linear geospatial streamflow modeling system for data sparse environments

In many river basins around the world, inaccessibility of flow data is a major obstacle to water resource studies and operational monitoring. This paper describes a geospatial streamflow modeling system which is parameterized with global terrain, soils and land cover data and run operationally with satellite‐derived precipitation and evapotranspiration datasets. Simple linear methods transfer water through the subsurface, overland and river flow phases, and the resulting flows are expressed in terms of standard deviations from mean annual flow. In sample applications, the modeling system was used to simulate flow variations in the Congo, Niger, Nile, Zambezi, Orange and Lake Chad basins between 1998 and 2005, and the resulting flows were compared with mean monthly values from the open‐access Global River Discharge Database. While the uncalibrated model cannot predict the absolute magnitude of flow, it can quantify flow anomalies in terms of relative departures from mean flow. Most of the severe flood events identified in the flow anomalies were independently verified by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) and the Emergency Disaster Database (EM‐DAT). Despite its limitations, the modeling system is valuable for rapid characterization of the relative magnitude of flood hazards and seasonal flow changes in data sparse settings.

International Journal of River Basin Management↗
USGS2022

Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of flood damage probability for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events ( n = 71,434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g., flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a flood damage probability for each 100-m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g., forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g., wetlands). Our results identified flood damage probability hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating flood damage probability estimates across the nation.

Environmental Research Letters↗