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USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2003

Application of artificial neural networks to complex groundwater management problems

As water quantity and quality problems become increasingly severe, accurate prediction and effective management of scarcer water resources will become critical. In this paper, the successful application of artificial neural network (ANN) technology is described for three types of groundwater prediction and management problems. In the first example, an ANN was trained with simulation data from a physically based numerical model to predict head (groundwater elevation) at locations of interest under variable pumping and climate conditions. The ANN achieved a high degree of predictive accuracy, and its derived state-transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization formulation and solved to generate a trade-off curve depicting water supply in relation to contamination risk. In the second and third examples, ANNs were developed with real-world hydrologic and climate data for different hydrogeologic environments. For the second problem, an ANN was developed using data collected for a 5-year, 8-month period to predict heads in a multilayered surficial and limestone aquifer system under variable pumping, state, and climate conditions. Using weekly stress periods, the ANN substantially outperformed a well-calibrated numerical flow model for the 71-day validation period, and provided insights into the effects of climate and pumping on water levels. For the third problem, an ANN was developed with data collected automatically over a 6-week period to predict hourly heads in 11 high-capacity public supply wells tapping a semiconfined bedrock aquifer and subject to large well-interference effects. Using hourly stress periods, the ANN accurately predicted heads for 24-hour periods in all public supply wells. These test cases demonstrate that the ANN technology can solve a variety of complex groundwater management problems and overcome many of the problems and limitations associated with traditional physically based flow models.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Testing a generalizable machine learning workflow for aquatic invasive species on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in northwest Montana

Biological invasions are accelerating worldwide, causing major ecological and economic impacts in aquatic ecosystems. The urgent decision-making needs of invasive species managers can be better met by the integration of biodiversity big data with large-domain models and data-driven products. Remotely sensed data products can be combined with existing invasive species occurrence data via machine learning models to provide the proactive spatial risk analysis necessary for implementing coordinated and agile management paradigms across large scales. We present a workflow that generates rapid spatial risk assessments on aquatic invasive species using occurrence data, spatially explicit environmental data, and an ensemble approach to species distribution modeling using five machine learning algorithms. For proof of concept and validation, we tested this workflow using extensive spatial and temporal hybridization and occurrence data from a well-studied, ongoing, and climate-driven species invasion in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana, USA. Rainbow Trout (RBT; Oncorhynchus mykiss), an introduced species in the Flathead River basin, compete and readily hybridize with native Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT; O. clarkii lewisii), and the spread of RBT individuals and their alleles has been tracked for decades. We used remotely sensed and other geospatial data as key environmental predictors for projecting resultant habitat suitability to geographic space. The ensemble modeling technique yielded high accuracy predictions relative to 30-fold cross-validated datasets (87% 30-fold cross-validated accuracy score). Both top predictors and model performance relative to these predictors matched current understanding of the drivers of RBT invasion and habitat suitability, indicating that temperature is a major factor influencing the spread of invasive RBT and hybridization with native WCT. The congruence between more time-consuming modeling approaches and our rapid machine-learning approach suggest that this workflow could be applied more broadly to provide data-driven management information for early detection of potential invaders.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS2023

Techniques for restoring damaged Mojave and western Sonoran ecosystems, including those for threatened desert tortoises and Joshua trees

Ecological restoration has potential for contributing to conservation activities for threatened Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia , Y. jaegeriana ) and their broader ecosystems in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts. To be effective, restoration actions deployed strategically need to halt and reverse habitat degradation, replenish or enhance resources used by both species (e.g., large shrubs for protection of tortoises and nurse plants facilitating recruitment of Joshua tree seedlings), and ideally foster resilience during likely future environmental changes. We synthesized restoration techniques and their effectiveness in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts, provide estimated costs of candidate techniques, and anticipate future research needs for effective restoration in changing climates and environments. Over 50 published studies in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts demonstrate that restoration can improve soil features (e.g., biocrusts), increase cover of native perennial and annual plants, enhance native seed retention and seed banks, and reduce risk of fires to conserve mature shrubland habitat. We placed restoration techniques into three categories: restoration of site environments, revegetation, and management actions to limit further disturbance and encourage recovery. Within these categories, 11 major restoration techniques (and their variations) were evaluated by at least one published study and range from geomorphic (e.g., reestablishing natural topographic patterns) and abiotic structural treatments (e.g., vertical mulching) to active revegetation (e.g., outplanting, seeding). For example, 16 outplanting studies assessed performance of 46 species to begin identifying top-performing species, associated treatments (e.g., protection from herbivory) required to aid outplant survival, and potential for outplants to trigger formation of self-sustaining populations. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), a shrub that tortoises use for cover and that serves as a nurse plant for Joshua tree recruitment, achieved at least 50% survival in five of eight studies. Estimated costs for restoring desert habitats varied primarily with the severity of the disturbance, site factors including the diversity of vegetation that was lost, logistical factors such as accessibility of sites (influencing transportation costs), and the cost-effectiveness of the restoration techniques chosen. The review highlights six major research and adaptive management needs for advancing desert habitat restoration. These needs include: 1) continued development of innovative techniques and bet-hedging approaches to provide managers with “tool boxes” of candidate treatments to deploy in dynamic environmental and management conditions, 2) identifying how to optimize spatial deployment of limited restoration resources, 3) developing practical techniques for reducing non-native annual grasses across spatial scales, 4) improving linkages between habitat enhancements and short- and long-term indicators of tortoise usage and responses and Joshua tree population sustainability, 5) mitigating multiple, interacting stressors with cumulative impacts, and 6) integrating biotic (e.g., seeding) and abiotic (e.g., fencing, shade structures) treatments to complement each other at site and landscape scales in dynamic climates and environments. It is possible that bet-hedging approaches employing multiple treatment types (or phased treatments across years) and greater incorporation of abiotic treatments, which are less sensitive to timing of precipitation compared with biotic treatments, will become increasingly important under future climates projected to be drier and more variable. Existing research suggests that restoration can be deployed effectively even under adverse climatic conditions, but success requires identifying suitable techniques tailored to dynamic environments.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Sonora↗
USGS2015

Status and conservation of interior Redband Trout in the western United States

In this article we describe the current status and conservation of interior (potamodromous) Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss sspp. throughout its range in the western United States using extant data and expert opinion provided by fish managers. Redband Trout historically occupied 60,295 km of stream habitat and 152 natural lakes. Currently, Redband Trout occupy 25,417 km of stream habitat (42% of their historical range) and 124 lakes or reservoirs. Nonhybridized populations are assumed to occupy 11,695 km (46%) of currently occupied streams; however, fish from only 4,473 km (18%) have been genetically tested. Approximately 47% of the streams occupied by Redband Trout occur on private land, 45% on government lands, and 8% in protected areas. A total of 210 Redband Trout populations, occupying 15,252 km of stream habitat (60% of the current distribution) and 95,158 ha of lake habitat (52%), are being managed as “conservation populations.” Most conservation populations have been designated as weakly to strongly connected metapopulations (125; 60%) and occupy much more stream length (14,112 km; 93%) than isolated conservation populations (1,141 km; 7%). The primary threats to Redband Trout include invasive species, habitat degradation and fragmentation, and climate change. Although the historical distribution of interior Redband Trout has declined dramatically, we conclude that the species is not currently at imminent risk of extinction because it is still widely distributed with many populations isolated by physical barriers and active conservation efforts are occurring for many populations. However, the hybridization status of many populations has not been well quantified, and introgression may be more prevalent than documented here. We recommend (1) collecting additional genetic data and estimating distribution and abundance by means of a more rigorous spatial sampling design to reduce uncertainties, (2) collecting additional information to assess and predict the impacts of climate on populations, and (3) continuing to use this database to evaluate the status of Redband Trout and inform conservation efforts through time.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2021

Informing future condition scenario planning for habitat specialists of the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem of South Florida

This project evaluated habitat conditions for two species found in the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem—the Rim Rock Crowned Snake ( Tantilla oolitica ) and the Key Ring-Necked Snake ( Diadophis punctatus acricus ). The Rim Rock Crowned Snake historically occurred in eastern Miami-Dade County (hereafter, mainland) as well as throughout the Florida Keys, whereas the Key Ring-Necked Snake occurs only in lower Florida Keys (Enge et al. 2004; Mays and Enge 2016). Both species are very elusive, small (< 20 cm in length) and primarily fossorial. Pine rockland habitat is rapidly disappearing in South Florida, with < 3 percent of its original extent remaining. Saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), and human development pose the greatest threats to the longevity of this ecosystem which, in turn, places species that are endemic to this unique habitat at risk of extinction. The Rim Rock Crowned Snake and the Key Ringed-Necked Snake are being considered for listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). To aid the agency’s decision, it must be able to forecast species’ responses to potential future environmental conditions, as well as to different conservation and management actions. Yet, the information needed to complete these forecasts—such as population trends, life history traits, habitat use, and future land use and climate conditions—is often lacking for most rare species. This is especially problematic for assessments of species resiliency to changes in climate and land use. When these types of data are lacking, information on habitat quality can be used to help determine how a species will respond to change. First, this project gathered current and historical records for both species from various sources such as museum specimens, inventories, and other personal account. Then, we identified potential future changes in habitat that could result from different management actions, such as habitat acquisition or restoration, and environmental conditions, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and rates of SLR. Researchers then explored the potential impacts of these habitat condition changes on the Rim Rock Crowned Snake and Key Ring-Necked Snake. This information can be used by the USFWS to help make decisions about the need to protect these species under the Endangered Species Act and could inform the conservation, management, and recovery of other at-risk species found in the pine rockland ecosystem. This work supports the Secretary of Interior’s priority to create a conservation stewardship legacy by using science to identify best practices to manage land and water resource and adapt to changes in the environment.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series

Coastal tidal wetlands are highly altered ecosystems exposed to substantial risk due to widespread and frequent land-use change coupled with sea-level rise, leading to disrupted hydrologic and ecologic functions and ultimately, significant reduction in climate resiliency. Knowing where and when the changes have occurred, and the nature of those changes, is important for coastal communities and natural resource management . Large-scale mapping of coastal tidal wetland changes is extremely difficult due to their inherent dynamic nature. To bridge this gap, we developed an automated algorithm for DEtection and Characterization of cOastal tiDal wEtlands change (DECODE) using dense Landsat time series. DECODE consists of three elements, including spectral break detection, land cover classification and change characterization. DECODE assembles all available Landsat observations and introduces a water level regressor for each pixel to flag the spectral breaks and estimate harmonic time-series models for the divided temporal segments. Each temporal segment is classified (e.g., vegetated wetlands, open water, and others – including unvegetated areas and uplands) based on the phenological characteristics and the synthetic surface reflectance values calculated from the harmonic model coefficients, as well as a generic rule-based classification system. This harmonic model-based approach has the advantage of not needing the acquisition of satellite images at optimal conditions (i.e., low tide status) to avoid underestimating coastal vegetation caused by the tidal fluctuation. At the same time, DECODE can also characterize different kinds of changes including land cover change and condition change (i.e., land cover modification without conversion). We used DECODE to track status of coastal tidal wetlands in the northeastern United States from 1986 to 2020. The overall accuracy of land cover classification and change detection is approximately 95.8% and 99.8%, respectively. The vegetated wetlands and open water were mapped with user's accuracy of 94.6% and 99.0%, and producer's accuracy of 98.1% and 93.5%, respectively. The cover change and condition change were mapped with user's accuracy of 68.0% and 80.0%, and producer's accuracy of 80.5% and 97.1%, respectively. Approximately 3283 km 2 of the coastal landscape within our study area in the northeastern United States changed at least once (12% of the study area), and condition changes were the dominant change type (84.3%). Vegetated coastal tidal wetland decreased consistently (~2.6 km 2 per year) in the past 35 years, largely due to conversion to open water in the context of sea-level rise.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2018

A critical time for mercury science to inform global policy

Mercury is a global pollutant released into the biosphere by varied human activities including coal combustion, mining, artisanal gold mining, cement production, and chemical production. Once released to air, land and water, the addition of carbon atoms to mercury by bacteria results in the production of methylmercury, the toxic form that bioaccumulates in aquatic and terrestrial food chains resulting in elevated exposure to humans and wildlife. Global recognition of the mercury contamination problem has resulted in the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which came into force in 2017. The treaty aims to protect human health and the environment from human-generated releases of mercury curtailing its movement and transformations in the biosphere. Coincident with the treaty’s coming into force, the 13th International Conference of Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP-13) was held in Providence, Rhode Island USA. At ICMGP-13, cutting edge research was summarized and presented to address questions relating to global and regional sources and cycling of mercury, how that mercury is methylated, the effects of mercury exposure on humans and wildlife, and the science needed for successful implementation of the Minamata Convention. Human activities have the potential to enhance mercury methylation by remobilizing previously released mercury, and increasing methylation efficiency. This synthesis concluded that many of the most important factors influencing the fate and effects of mercury and its more toxic form, methylmercury, stem from environmental changes that are much broader in scope than mercury releases alone. Alterations of mercury cycling, methylmercury bioavailability and trophic transfer due to climate and land use changes remain critical uncertainties in effective implementation of the Minamata Convention. In the face of these uncertainties, important policy and management actions are needed over the short-term to support the control of mercury releases to land, water and air. These include adequate monitoring and communication on risk from exposure to various forms of inorganic mercury as well as methylmercury from fish and rice consumption. Successful management of global and local mercury pollution will require integration of mercury research and policy in a changing world.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2021

Risk-based wellhead protection decision support: A repeatable workflow approach

Environmental water management often benefits from a risk-based approach where information on the area of interest is characterized, assembled, and incorporated into a decision model considering uncertainty. This includes prior information from literature, field measurements, professional interpretation, and data assimilation resulting in a decision tool with a posterior uncertainty assessment accounting for prior understanding and what is learned through model development and data assimilation. Model construction and data assimilation are time consuming and prone to errors, which motivates a repeatable workflow where revisions resulting from new interpretations or discovery of errors can be addressed and the analyses repeated efficiently and rigorously. In this work, motivated by the real world application of delineating risk-based (probabilistic) sources of water to supply wells in a humid temperate climate, a scripted workflow was generated for groundwater model construction, data assimilation, particle-tracking and post-processing. The workflow leverages existing datasets describing hydrogeology, hydrography, water use, recharge, and lateral boundaries. These specific data are available in the United States but the tools can be applied to similar datasets worldwide. The workflow builds the model, performs ensemble-based history matching, and uses a posterior Monte Carlo approach to provide probabilistic capture zones describing source water to wells in a risk-based framework. The water managers can then select areas of varying levels of protection based on their tolerance for risk of potential wrongness of the underlying models. All the tools in this workflow are open-source and free, which facilitates testing of this repeatable and transparent approach to other environmental problems.

Groundwater↗
USGS2016

Learning and adaptation in waterfowl conservation: By chance or by design?

The most recent revision of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to increase the adaptive capacity of the management enterprise to cope with accelerating changes in climate, land-use patterns, agency priorities, and the waterfowl and wetlands constituency. Institutional and cultural changes of the magnitude envisioned are necessarily slow, messy processes, involving many actors who at a minimum must agree on the need for change. Waterfowl conservation now finds itself in the transition zone between business as usual and some new mode of operation. There are at least 2 different perspectives of this transition: one focuses on process, accountability, and planning for change; another focuses on solutions generated from an organic process of creativity, information sharing, and risk-taking. Both of these views have something to contribute, but some in the wildlife management enterprise may tend to focus more on the first view. We suggest that ideas from panarchy theory, especially those related to the behaviors of complex adaptive systems, can help waterfowl managers better understand and foster the institutional changes they seek.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2021

Connectivity between lentic and lotic freshwater habitats identified as a conservation priority for coho salmon

Juvenile Pacific salmon exhibit diverse habitat use and migration strategies to navigate high environmental variability and predation risk during freshwater residency. Increasingly, urbanization and climate-driven hydrological alterations are affecting the availability and quality of aquatic habitats in salmon catchments. Thus, conservation of freshwater habitat integrity has emerged as an important challenge in supporting salmon life-history diversity as a buffer against continuing ecosystem changes. To inform catchment management for salmon, information on the distribution and movement dynamics of juvenile fish throughout the annual seasonal cycle is needed. A number of studies have assessed the ecology of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) during summer and autumn seasons; catchment use by this species throughout the annual cycle is less well characterized, particularly in high-latitude systems. Here, n = 3,792 tagged juvenile coho salmon were tracked throughout two complete annual cycles to assess basin-wide distribution and movement behaviour of this species in a subarctic, ice-bearing catchment. Juvenile coho salmon in the Big Lake basin, Alaska, exhibited multiple habitat use and movement strategies across seasons; however, summer rearing in lotic mainstem environments followed by migration to lentic overwinter habitats was identified as a prominent behaviour, with two-thirds of tracked fish migrating en masse to concentrate in a small subset of upper catchment lakes for the winter. In contrast, the most significant tributary overwintering site (8% of tracked fish) occurred below a culvert and dam, blocking juvenile fish passage to a headwater lake, indicating that these fish may have been restricted from reaching preferred lentic overwinter habitats. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining aquatic connectivity to lentic habitats as a conservation priority for coho salmon during freshwater residency.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys↗
USGS2019

Hurricane Sandy impacts on coastal wetland resilience

The goal of this research was to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on surface elevation trends in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States from Virginia to Maine using data from an opportunistic (in other words, not strategic) and collaborative network (from here on, an opportunistic network) of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations. First, we built a data-base of metadata for 965 individual stations from 96 unique geographical locations that included the location, geomorphic setting, and wetland type for each SET-MH station. The dominant estuarine settings included in the analyses were back-barrier lagoonal marshes and emergent marshes along embayments and tidal tributaries. We then calculated prestorm elevation trends to compare to poststorm elevation measurements to determine the storm impact on each station trend. We hypothesized that the effect of Hurricane Sandy on marsh elevation trends would differ by position relative to landfall (right or left) and distance from landfall in southern New Jersey, as both of these variables influence the presence or absence of storm surge as a result of the physical characteristics of tropical cyclones (in other words, strongest winds typically occur to the right of landfall). Storm surge was spatially less extensive and less deep (~1 meter [m]) in marshes located to the left (in other words, south) of landfall compared to marshes located to the right (in other words, north) of landfall where storm surge covered a larger area and was deeper (3–4 m). About 63 percent of 223 eligible stations had a poststorm trend that was similar to the prestorm trend (in other words, less than ±5 millimeters [mm]), indicating little storm impact on elevation trends at those sites. The remaining 37 percent of stations exhibited significant poststorm deviations from the prestorm trend (in other words, greater than ±5 mm). Of these, stations located to the left of landfall had a significant and greater deviation in their elevation trend, and the deviation was more likely to be positive (elevation gain) compared to marshes located to the right of landfall, which had a significant deviation in their elevation trend that was more likely to be negative (elevation loss). This finding is directly related to storm surge impacts on marsh sediment deposition, where deep storm surge (3–4 m) results in sediment deposition in habitats inland of coastal marshes but less so in the marshes themselves. Substrate compaction by the storm surge over-burden may have contributed to elevation loss, but this was not measured because sufficient marker horizon data were not available for analysis. In contrast, to the left of landfall the wind-driven flooding of sediment laden water pushed into the headwaters of rivers and small bays with an ~1 m surge, and resulted in more prevalent sediment deposition on the marsh surfaces and elevation gain. In general, the findings support previous research showing that the physical characteristics of the storm (for example, wind speed, storm surge height, impact angle of landfall) combined with the local wetland conditions (for example, marsh productivity, groundwater level, tide height) are important factors determining a storm’s impact on soil elevation, and that the soil elevation response can vary widely among multiple wetland sites impacted by the same storm and among different storms for the same wetland site. The final objective of this project was to create a framework using metadata from the opportunistic network of SET-MH stations that could be used to develop a strategic monitoring network designed to address specific climate change impacts and related phenomena identified by land managers and stakeholders. We evaluated the spatial distribution and density of SET-MH stations in relation to geographic coverage, marsh setting, availability of public land, and historical storm surge footprints and hurricane return intervals in order to identify gaps in our understanding of risk and our ability to assess it. Analyses revealed that the general geographic coverage of SET-MH stations is limited given the low percentage of marsh patches with stations, low density of stations, the clumped distribution of stations, and the often limited and uneven distribution of stations in wetlands with a high historical frequency of hurricane strikes and storm surge impacts. These findings can be used by managers and planners to inform the creation of a strategic monitoring network that can, in turn, inform management and adaptation plans for coastal resources in the region. Final plan designs will need to consider financial and infrastructural support required for station maintenance, as well as data collection and management over the long term.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe.

Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1) how the outcomes of EAG and sagebrush fuel treatments varied with site biophysical properties, climate, and weather, and 2) how predictions of fire behavior using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System fire model related to land-management objectives of maintaining fire behavior expected of low-load, dry-climate grasslands. Generalized linear mixed effect modeling with build-up model selection was used to determine best-fit models, and marginal effects plots to assess responses for each fuel type. EAG cover decreased as antecedent-fall precipitation increased and increased as antecedent-spring temperatures and surface soil clay contents increased. Herbicides targeting EAGs were less effective where pre-treatment EAG cover was >40 % and antecedent spring temperatures were >9.5 °C. Sagebrush cover was inversely related to soil clay content, especially where clay contents were >17 %. Predicted fire behavior exceeded management objectives under 1) average fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >50 % or >26 %, respectively, or 2) extreme fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >10 % or >8 %, respectively. Consideration of the strong effects of natural variability in site properties and antecedent weather can help in justifying, planning and implementing fuel-treatments.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2026

Seasonal migrations and other movements

In the past 25 years new information has been obtained on the migrations and movements of mountain sheep (bighorn [Ovis canadensis], thinhorn [Ovis dalli]). This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of mountain sheep migration and other movements across their broad distribution in western North America. Across the range of mountain sheep, migrations and other seasonal movements define a complex movement portfolio that relates to and supports all aspects of mountain sheep ecology. Bighorn and thinhorn species have examples of migratory behaviors that span the continuum between annual residents and long-distance migrants. Migratory behaviors can be characterized as low- or high-elevation residents; elevational migrations and other variants; and geographic migrants. Native populations that have been extant on the landscape without notable human intervention have greater migratory propensity and more diverse migratory portfolios due to the maintenance of migration through cultural learning and social transmission. Restored and augmented populations, where the population-level knowledge of migration has been lost or greatly reduced, are largely nonmigratory, although translocations show some ability to restore short-distance elevational migrations. Seasonal spring and fall migrations are less common in desert bighorn sheep (O. canadensis spp.) or bighorn sheep living in canyon or prairie breaks landscapes. Mineral lick visitation is important and common across the range of mountain sheep. Managing for migratory diversity can help to sustain migratory behavior in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures, which can limit landscape connectivity between seasonal ranges or alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional phenology with cascading effects to other biotic and abiotic interactions such as the need to balance forage and predation risk or the spatial refugia with increased temperatures.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Biology, status, and management of the yellowstone cutthroat trout

Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri were historically distributed in the Yellowstone River drainage (Montana and Wyoming) and the Snake River drainage (Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and probably Washington). Individual populations evolved distinct life history characteristics in response to the diverse environments in which they were isolated after the last glaciation. Anthropogenic activities have resulted in a substantial decline (42% of the historical range is currently occupied; 28% is occupied by core [genetically unaltered] populations), but the number of extant populations, especially in headwater streams, has precluded listing of this taxon under the Endangered Species Act. Primary threats to persistence of Yellowstone cutthroat trout include (1) invasive species, resulting in hybridization, predation, disease, and interspecific competition; (2) habitat degradation from human activities such as agricultural practices, water diversions, grazing, dam construction, mineral extraction, grazing, timber harvest, and road construction; and (3) climate change, including an escalating risk of drought, wildfire, winter flooding, and rising temperatures. Extirpation of individual populations or assemblages has led to increasing isolation and fragmentation of remaining groups, which in turn raises susceptibility to the demographic influences of disturbance (both human and stochastic) and genetic factors. Primary conservation strategies include (1) preventing risks associated with invasive species by isolating populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and (2) connecting occupied habitats (where possible) to preserve metapopulation function and the expression of multiple life histories. Because persistence of isolated populations may be greater in the short term, current management is focused on isolating individual populations and restoring habitats; however, this approach implies that humans will act as dispersal agents if a population is extirpated because of stochastic events.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Using large-scale flow experiments to rehabilitate Colorado River ecosystem function in Grand Canyon: Basis for an adaptive climate-resilient strategy

Adaptive management of Glen Canyon Dam is improving downstream resources of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP), a federal advisory committee of 25 members with diverse special interests tasked to advise the U.S. Department of the Interior), was established in 1997 in response to the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act. Adaptive management assumes that ecosystem responses to management policies are inherently complex and unpredictable, but that understanding and management can be improved through monitoring. Best known for its high-flow experiments intended to benefit physical and biological resources by simulating one aspect of pre-dam conditions—floods, the AMP promotes collaboration among tribal, recreation, hydropower, environmental, water and other natural resource management interests. Monitoring has shown that high flow experiments move limited new tributary sand inputs below the dam from the bottom of the Colorado River to shorelines; rebuilding eroded sandbars that support camping areas and other natural and cultural resources. Spring-timed high flows have also been shown to stimulate aquatic productivity by disturbing the river bed below the dam in Glen Canyon. Understanding about how nonnative tailwater rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and downstream endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ) respond to dam operations has also increased, but this learning has mostly posed “surprise” adaptation opportunities to managers. Since reoperation of the dam to Modified Low Fluctuating Flows in 1996, rainbow trout now benefit from more stable daily flows and high spring releases, but possibly at a risk to humpback chub and other native fishes downstream. In contrast, humpback chub have so far proven robust to all flows, and native fish have increased under the combination of warmer river temperatures associated with reduced storage in Lake Powell, and a system-wide reduction in trout from 2000-06, possibly due to several years of natural reproduction under limited food supply. Uncertainties about dam operations and ecosystem responses remain, including how native and nonnative fish will interact and respond to possible increased river temperatures under drier basin conditions. Ongoing assessment of operating policies by the AMP’s diverse stakeholders represents a major commitment to the river’s valued resources, while surprise learning opportunities can also help identify a resilient climate-change strategy for co-managing nonnative and endangered native fish, sandbar habitats and other river resources in a region with already complex and ever-increasing water demands.

Arizona↗