Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “earthquake hazards”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Maps of quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility in the Central San Francisco Bay Region, California

This report presents a map and database of Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility for the urban core of the San Francisco Bay region. It supercedes the equivalent area of U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-444 (Knudsen and others, 2000), which covers the larger 9-county San Francisco Bay region. The report consists of (1) a spatial database, (2) two small-scale colored maps (Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility), (3) a text describing the Quaternary map and liquefaction interpretation (part 3), and (4) a text introducing the report and describing the database (part 1). All parts of the report are digital; part 1 describes the database and digital files and how to obtain them by downloading across the internet. The nine counties surrounding San Francisco Bay straddle the San Andreas fault system, which exposes the region to serious earthquake hazard (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999). Much of the land adjacent to the Bay and the major rivers and streams is underlain by unconsolidated deposits that are particularly vulnerable to earthquake shaking and liquefaction of water-saturated granular sediment. This new map provides a consistent detailed treatment of the central part of the 9-county region in which much of the mapping of Open-File Report 00-444 was either at smaller (less detailed) scale or represented only preliminary revision of earlier work. Like Open-File Report 00-444, the current mapping uses geomorphic expression, pedogenic soils, inferred depositional environments, and geologic age to define and distinguish the map units. Further scrutiny of the factors controlling liquefaction susceptibility has led to some changes relative to Open-File Report 00-444: particularly the reclassification of San Francisco Bay mud (Qhbm) to have only MODERATE susceptibility and the rating of artificial fills according to the Quaternary map units inferred to underlie them (other than dams - adf). The two colored maps provide a regional summary of the new mapping at a scale of 1:200,000, a scale that is sufficient to show the general distribution and relationships of the map units but not to distinguish the more detailed elements that are present in the database. The report is the product of cooperative work by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, William Lettis and & Associates, Inc. (WLA), and the California Geological Survey. An earlier version was submitted to the U.S. Geological Survey by WLA as a final report for a NEHRP grant (Witter and others, 2005). The mapping has been carried out by WLA geologists under contract to the NEHRP Earthquake Program (Grant 99-HQ-GR-0095) and by the California Geological Survey.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

Preliminary maps of Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility, nine-county San Francisco Bay region, California: a digital database

This report presents a preliminary map and database of Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility for the nine-county San Francisco Bay region, together with a digital compendium of ground effects associated with past earthquakes in the region. The report consists of (1) a spatial database of fivedata layers (Quaternary deposits, quadrangle index, and three ground effects layers) and two text layers (a labels and leaders layer for Quaternary deposits and for ground effects), (2) two small-scale colored maps (Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility), (3) a text describing the Quaternary map, liquefaction interpretation, and the ground effects compendium, and (4) the databse description pamphlet. The nine counties surrounding San Francisco Bay straddle the San Andreas fault system, which exposes the region to serious earthquake hazard (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999). Much of the land adjacent to the Bay and the major rivers and streams is underlain by unconsolidated deposits that are particularly vulnerable to earthquake shaking and liquefaction of water-saturated granular sediment. This new map provides a modern and regionally consistent treatment of Quaternary surficial deposits that builds on the pioneering mapping of Helley and Lajoie (Helley and others, 1979) and such intervening work as Atwater (1982), Helley and others (1994), and Helley and Graymer (1997a and b). Like these earlier studies, the current mapping uses geomorphic expression, pedogenic soils, and inferred depositional environments to define and distinguish the map units. In contrast to the twelve map units of Helley and Lajoie, however, this new map uses a complex stratigraphy of some forty units, which permits a more realistic portrayal of the Quaternary depositional system. The two colored maps provide a regional summary of the new mapping at a scale of 1:275,000, a scale that is sufficient to show the general distribution and relationships of the map units but cannot distinguish the more detailed elements that are present in the database. The report is the product of years of cooperative work by the USGS National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program, William Lettis and & Associates, Inc. (WLA) and, more recently, by the California Division of Mines and Geology as well. An earlier version was submitted to the Geological Survey by WLA as a final report for a NEHRP grant (Knudsen and others, 2000). The mapping has been carried out by WLA geologists under contract to the NEHRP Earthquake Program (Grants #14-08-0001-G2129, 1434-94-G-2499, 1434-HQ-97-GR-03121, and 99-HQ-GR-0095) and with other limited support from the County of Napa, and recently also by the California Division of Mines and Geology. The current map consists of this new mapping and revisions of previous USGS mapping.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system ( Given et al. , 2018 ). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public alerts were expanded into Oregon and then into Washington ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2024 ). ShakeAlert source results are routinely compared to the USGS Comprehensive Catalog (ComCat; Guy et al. , 2015 ; U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which contains the earthquake location and magnitude determined using complete waveform data. M 4.5 and larger is the threshold used for public alerting and was deliberately set below the level where damage is likely to compensate for cases where the system underestimates the magnitude. Between 17 October 2019 and 1 September 2023, the ShakeAlert system created 95 events with maximum magnitude estimates of M ≥4.5, the public alerting threshold. 94 of the 95 events were due to real earthquakes. Seven were categorized “false” per ShakeAlert’s internal definition that there was no matching catalog event within 100 km and 30 s of origin time; however, all but one of these were real earthquakes that were poorly located, primarily because they were at the edges of the seismic network. Three detected events were labeled “missed” because they were very poorly located (>100 km location error). In addition, the system did not produce solutions for four ComCat events M ≥4.5 ( U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which were all at the edge of the alerting and network boundaries. The ShakeAlert system has accurately detected the majority of earthquakes that have occurred within the operational region since completing the public rollout, and alerts from the system have been delivered to millions of cell phone users throughout the West Coast.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS1976

A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States

This paper presents a probabilistic estimate of the maximum ground acceleration to be expected from earthquakes occurring in the contiguous United States. It is based primarily upon the historic seismic record which ranges from very incomplete before 1930 to moderately complete after 1960. Geologic data, primarily distribution of faults, have been employed only to a minor extent, because most such data have not been interpreted yet with earthquake hazard evaluation in mind. The map provides a preliminary estimate of the relative hazard in various parts of the country. The report provides a method for evaluating the relative importance of the many parameters and assumptions in hazard analysis. The map and methods of evaluation described reflect the current state of understanding and are intended to be useful for engineering purposes in reducing the effects of earthquakes on buildings and other structures. Studies are underway on improved methods for evaluating the relativ( earthquake hazard of different regions. Comments on this paper are invited to help guide future research and revisions of the accompanying map. The earthquake hazard in the United States has been estimated in a variety of ways since the initial effort by Ulrich (see Roberts and Ulrich, 1950). In general, the earlier maps provided an estimate of the severity of ground shaking or damage but the frequency of occurrence of the shaking or damage was not given. Ulrich's map showed the distribution of expected damage in terms of no damage (zone 0), minor damage (zone 1), moderate damage (zone 2), and major damage (zone 3). The zones were not defined further and the frequency of occurrence of damage was not suggested. Richter (1959) and Algermissen (1969) estimated the ground motion in terms of maximum Modified Mercalli intensity. Richter used the terms "occasional" and "frequent" to characterize intensity IX shaking and Algermissen included recurrence curves for various parts of the country in the paper accompanying his map. The first probabilistic hazard maps covering portions of the United States were by Milne and Davenport (1969a). Recently, Wiggins, Hirshberg and Bronowicki (1974) prepared a probabilistic map of maximum particle velocity and Modified Mercalli intensity for the entire United States. The maps are based on an analysis of the historical seismicity. In general, geological data were not incorporated into the development of the maps.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Publication: Evansville hazard maps

The Evansville (Indiana) Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project was completed in February 2012. It was a collaborative effort among the U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners Purdue University; the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis; the state geologic surveys of Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana; the Southwest Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Corporation; and the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium state geologists.

Indiana↗
USGS2017

NEHRP turns 40

This year, the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) turns 40, four decades since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 was enacted establishing the Program, spurring numerous federal, state, and community actions to reduce earthquake losses in the U.S.A. and its territories and setting a standard for earthquake loss‐reduction projects internationally. Four agencies are partners in NEHRP: the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, the lead agency), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2004

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

Abstract Earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Coastal Management↗
USGS2001

HAZUS 99 estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

Recent earthquakes around the world show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses. The increases are due primarily to two factors: 1) significant growth in urban areas that are prone to earthquakes; and 2) the vulnerability of the older building stock, even buildings that were constructed within the past twenty years. In the United States, earthquake risk has grown substantially with development, while the earthquake hazard has remained relatively constant. To understand the hazard, we study earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur. To understand risk, we must include characteristics of the built environment in the locales where earthquakes occur, and we must assess potential damages to the built environment and the people who use it. That is a complex undertaking and one this study intends to advance. It is important to estimate the varying degrees of seismic risk throughout the United States because we need that understanding in order to make informed decisions on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels—in both the public and private sectors. We can reduce earthquake losses to older buildings by rehabilitating them, and we can reduce earthquake losses in new buildings by applying seismic codes to their design and construction. However, decisions to spend money on either of those solutions require evidence of risk. In the absence of a nationally accepted criterion and methodology for comparing seismic risk across regions, a consensus on optimal mitigation approaches has been difficult to reach. We are all aware of regions with high hazard and high risk, such as Los Angeles, but there is growing recognition that some regions with low seismic hazard actually have high seismic risk, as is the case in New York City and Boston. This risk results, in part, from concentrations of buildings and infrastructure built without use of seismic codes or provisions. Additionally, mitigation policies and practices in the public and private sectors may not have been adopted because a community’s earthquake risk was not clearly demonstrated, and neither was the value of mitigation measures in reducing that risk. The low hazard/high risk problem exists in a number of areas in the U.S., where the infrequency of damaging earthquakes has been interpreted, wrongly, as lack of risk. While earth scientists work to increase knowledge about the hazard throughout the United States, structural engineers and other professionals work to enumerate the many factors that comprise risk. This study is one result of that endeavor. It is based on loss estimates generated by Hazards U.S. (HAZUS), a Geographic Information System (GIS)- based earthquake loss estimation tool, developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in cooperation with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). The HAZUS tool provides an approach to quantifying future earthquake losses that is national in scope, uniform in application, and comprehensive in its coverage of the built environment.

Report↗
USGS1972

Bartin-Amasra earthquake, Turkey, September 3, 1968

A brief examination of the Bartin-were whether earthquake area was made on September 23 and September 24,1968, by the authors to determine whether or not geologic effects had been produced that were significant enough to warrant further detailed study by the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey or by the National Center for Earthquake Research of the U.S. Geological Survey. In particular, the questions to be answered were whether this "natural experiment" had produced unique or unusual results that would cast light on means of controlling damage by geologic conditions, and whether or not surface faults or other tectonic deformation, h.ad developed which might help define the geologic control of earthquakes in northern Turkey. The brief field examination was made jointly by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey and Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey, because of the interest of both agencies in the earthquake hazard problem. Both agencies had participated in the Conference on Earthquake Hazard Minimization sponsored by the Central Treaty Organization held in Ankara in July 1968. The brief examination was, in part, prompted by the recommendations of the Conference group to take advantage of each significant earthquake to learn "how to live with earthquakes in greater safety." No additional study of this earthquake by either organization seems warranted at this time, and our observations made during the brief investigation are reported here.

Amasra, Bartin↗
USGS2020

Temperature model in support of the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model for seismic hazard Ssudies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model (NCM) is being developed to assist with earthquake hazard and risk assessment by supporting estimates of ground shaking in response to an earthquake. The period-dependent intensity and duration of shaking depend upon the three-dimensional seismic velocity, seismic attenuation, and density distribution of a region, which in turn is governed to a large degree by geology and how that geology behaves under varying temperatures and pressures. A three-dimensional temperature model is presented here to support the estimation of physical parameters within the U.S. Geological Survey NCM. The crustal model is defined by a geological framework consisting of various lithologies with distinct mineral compositions. A temperature model is needed to calculate mineral density and bulk and shear modulus as a function of position within the crust. These properties control seismic velocity and impedance, which are needed to accurately estimate earthquake travel times and seismic amplitudes in earthquake hazard analyses. The temperature model is constrained by observations of surface temperature, temperature gradient, and conductivity, inferred Moho temperature and depth, and assumed conductivity at the base of the crust. The continental plate is assumed to have heat production that decreases exponentially with depth and thermal conductivity that exponentially changes from a surface value to 3.6 watts per meter-Kelvin at the Moho. The oceanic plate cools as a half-space with a geotherm dependent on plate age. Under these conditions, and the application of observed surface heat production, predicted Moho temperatures match Moho temperatures inferred from seismic P-wave velocities, on average. As has been noted in previous studies, high crustal temperatures are found in the western United States, particularly beneath areas of recent volcanism. In the central and eastern United States, elevated temperatures are found from southeast Texas, into the Mississippi Embayment, and up through Wisconsin. A USGS ScienceBase data release that supports this report is available and consists of grids covering the NCM across the conterminous United States, for example, surface temperature and temperature gradient, that are needed to produce temperature profiles.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: A new mapping tool

We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

California↗
USGS2004

Photomosaics and logs of trenches on the San Andreas Fault, Thousand Palms Oasis, California

We present photomosaics and logs of the walls of trenches excavated for a paleoseismic study at Thousand Palms Oasis (Fig. 1). The site is located on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone, one of two major active strands of the fault in the Indio Hills along the northeast margin of the Coachella Valley (Fig. 2). The Coachella Valley section is the most poorly understood major part of the San Andreas fault with regard to slip rate and timing of past large-magnitude earthquakes, and therefore earthquake hazard. No large earthquakes have occurred for more than three centuries, the longest elapsed time for any part of the southern San Andreas fault. In spite of this, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1995) assigned the lowest 30-year conditional probability on the southern San Andreas fault to the Coachella Valley. Models of the behavior of this part of the fault, however, have been based on very limited geologic data. The Thousand Palms Oasis is an attractive location for paleoseismic study primarily because of the well-bedded late Holocene sedimentary deposits with abundant layers of organic matter for radiocarbon dating necessary to constrain the timing of large prehistoric earthquakes. Previous attempts to develop a chronology of paleoearthquakes for the region have been hindered by the scarcity of in-situ 14C-dateable material for age control in this desert environment. Also, the fault in the vicinity of Thousand Palms Oasis consists of a single trace that is well expressed, both geomorphically and as a vegetation lineament (Figs. 2, 3). Results of our investigations are discussed in Fumal et al. (2002) and indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred along this part of the fault during the past 1200 years. The average recurrence time for these earthquakes is 215 ± 25 years, although interevent times may have been as short as a few decades or as long as 400 years. Thus, although the elapsed time since the most recent earthquake, about 320 years, is about 50% longer than the average recurrence time, it is not necessarily unprecedented.

California↗
USGS1997

Geologic hazards in the region of the Hurricane fault

Complex geology and variable topography along the 250-kilometer-long Hurricane fault in northwestern Arizona and southwestern Utah combine to create natural conditions that can present a potential danger to life and property. Geologic hazards are of particular concern in southwestern Utah, where the St. George Basin and Interstate-15 corridor north to Cedar City are one of Utah's fastest growing areas. Lying directly west of the Hurricane fault and within the Basin and Range - Colorado Plateau transition zone, this region exhibits geologic characteristics of both physiographic provinces. Long, potentially active, normal-slip faults displace a generally continuous stratigraphic section of mostly east-dipping late Paleozoic to Cretaceous sedimentary rocks unconformably overlain by Tertiary to Holocene sedimentary and igneous rocks and unconsolidated basin-fill deposits. Geologic hazards (exclusive of earthquake hazards) of principal concern in the region include problem soil and rock, landslides, shallow ground water, and flooding. Geologic materials susceptible to volumetric change, collapse, and subsidence in southwestern Utah include; expansive soil and rock, collapse-prone soil, gypsum and gypsiferous soil, soluble carbonate rocks, and soil and rock subject to piping and other ground collapse. Expansive soil and rock are widespread throughout the region. The Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation is especially prone to large volume changes with variations in moisture content. Collapse-prone soils are common in areas of Cedar City underlain by alluvial-fan material derived from the Moenkopi and Chinle Formations in the nearby Hurricane Cliffs. Gypsiferous soil and rock are subject to dissolution which can damage foundations and create sinkholes. The principal formations in the region affected by dissolution of carbonate are the Kaibab and Toroweap Formations; both formations have developed sinkholes where crossed by perennial streams. Soil piping is common in southwestern Utah where it has damaged roads, canal embankments, and water-retention structures. Several unexplained sinkholes near the town of Hurricane possibly are the result of collapse of subsurface volcanic features. Geologic formations associated with slope failures along or near the Hurricane fault include rocks of both Mesozoic and Tertiary age. Numerous landslides are present in these materials along the Hurricane Cliffs, and the Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation is commonly associated with slope failures where it crops out in the St. George Basin. Steep slopes and numerous areas of exposed bedrock make rock fall a hazard in the St. George Basin. Debris flows and debris floods in narrow canyons and on alluvial fans often accompany intense summer cloudburst thunderstorms. Flooded basements and foundation problems associated with shallow ground water are common on benches north of the Santa Clara River in the city of Santa Clara. Stream flooding is the most frequently occurring and destructive geologic hazard in southwestern Utah. Since the 1850s, there have been three major riverine (regional) floods and more than 300 damaging flash floods. Although a variety of flood control measures have been implemented, continued rapid growth in the region is again increasing vulnerability to flood hazards. Site-specific studies to evaluate geologic hazards and identify hazard-reduction measures are recommended prior to construction to reduce the need for costly repair, maintenance, or replacement of improperly placed or protected facilities.

Brigham Young University Geology Studies↗
USGS2017

Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the public and private sectors. For example, potential losses to new buildings may be reduced by proper land-use planning, applying most current seismic design codes and using new technologies and specialized construction techniques. However, decisions to spend money on any of those solutions require benefit and cost comparison against the perceived risk. Previous versions of the FEMA 366 studies are the only nationally accepted criteria and methodology for comparing seismic risk across regions.

Report↗
USGS2023

A methodology to combine shaking and ground failure models for forecasting seismic damage to buried pipeline networks

How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we develop a probability‐based methodology to consistently combine SGS with three types of GF (surface faulting, liquefaction, and landslide) for forecasting seismic damage in buried pipeline networks from a given earthquake rupture scenario. Using a gas transmission pipeline example, we illustrate how the proposed methodology enables others (e.g., researchers, pipeline operators who manage distribution lines, and consultants) to modularly combine various models such as those for estimating probability of GF, permanent ground displacements, and pipeline fragility. Finally, we compare the proposed methodology against the Hazus methodology to explore implications from considering each hazard one at a time.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Report for borehole explosion data acquired in the 1999 Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE II), Southern California: Part I, description of the survey

The Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) is a joint project of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The purpose of this project is to produce seismic images of the subsurface of the Los Angeles region down to the depths at which earthquakes occur, and deeper, in order to remedy a deficit in our knowledge of the deep structure of this region. This deficit in knowledge has persisted despite over a century of oil exploration and nearly 70 years of recording earthquakes in southern California. Understanding the deep crustal structure and tectonics of southern California is important to earthquake hazard assessment. Specific imaging targets of LARSE include (a) faults, especially blind thrust faults, which cannot be reliably detected any other way; and (b) the depths and configurations of sedimentary basins. Imaging of faults is important in both earthquake hazard assessment but also in modeling earthquake occurrence. Earthquake occurrence cannot be understood unless the earthquake-producing "machinery" (tectonics) is known (Fuis and others, 2001). Imaging the depths and configurations of sedimentary basins is important because earthquake shaking at the surface is enhanced by basin depth and by the presence of sharp basin edges (Wald and Graves, 1998, Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1995; Field and others, 2001). (Sedimentary basins are large former valleys now filled with sediment eroded from nearby mountains.) Sedimentary basins in the Los Angeles region that have been investigated by LARSE include the Los Angeles, San Gabriel Valley, San Fernando Valley, and Santa Clarita Valley basins. The seismic imaging surveys of LARSE include recording of earthquakes (both local and distant earthquakes) along several corridors (or transects) through the Los Angeles region and also recording of man-made sources along these same corridors. Man-made sources have included airguns offshore and borehole explosions and vibrating-truck sources onshore. The two chief LARSE transects pass near recent moderate earthquakes, including the 1971 M 6.7 San Fernando, 1987 M 5.9 Whittier Narrows, 1991 M 5.8 Sierra Madre, and 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The first transect extended from San Clemente Island northeastward to the Mojave Desert (Line 1, Fig. 1), passing near the epicenter of the Whittier Narrows and Sierra Madre earthquakes. The second transect extended from west of San Clemente Island northward to the western Mojave Desert (Line 2, Figs. 1, 2), passing through the epicenter of the Northridge earthquake and near the epicenter of the San Fernando earthquake. Data along Line 1 were acquired during the years 1993-1994, and data along Line 2, during the years 1994–2000. In this open-file report and that of Murphy and others (in preparation), we present the details of the October 1999 explosion survey along Line 2, which extended from Santa Monica Bay northward to the western Mojave Desert (Figs. 1, 2). This survey is referred to as LARSE II. In this survey, 93 borehole explosions were detonated along the main north-south line and along 5 auxiliary lines in the San Fernando Valley and Santa Monica areas. These explosions were recorded by ~1400 seismographs. A variety of seismic instrumentation was used in these imaging surveys and was obtained from collaborators from around the world, including the Geological Survey of Canada (Ottawa, Canada), IRIS/PASSCAL (Socorro, NM), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (Palisades, NY), Stanford University (Stanford, CA), SCEC (Los Angeles, CA), USGS (Menlo Park, CA, and Woods Hole, MA), University of Texas at El Paso (El Paso, TX), GeoForschungsZentrum (Potsdam, Germany), University of Karlsruhe (Karlsruhe, Germany), and University of Copenhagen (Copenhagen, Denmark). The reader is referred to Table 1 for instrumentation used in LARSE II.

California↗
USGS2025

Identification of representative earthquakes for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) using earthquake rupture forecasts and machine learning

As probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) focuses more on assessments for localized, populous regions, techniques are needed to identify a subsample of representative earthquake ruptures to make the computational requirements for producing high-resolution hazard maps tractable. Moreover, the greatest epistemic uncertainty in seismic PTHA is related to source characterization, which is often poorly defined and subjective. We address these two salient issues by applying streamlined earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs), based on combinatorial optimization methods, to an unsupervised machine learning workflow for identifying representative ruptures. ERFs determine the optimal distribution of a millennia-scale sample of earthquakes by inverting the observed slip rate on major faults. We use two previously developed combinatorial optimization ERFs, integer programming and greedy sequential, to produce the optimal location of ruptures with seismic moments sampled from a regional Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. These ruptures in turn are used to calculate peak nearshore tsunami amplitude, using computationally efficient tsunami Green's functions. An unsupervised machine learning workflow is then used to identify a small subsample of the earthquakes input to ERFs for onshore PTHA analysis. We eliminate epistemic uncertainty related to source distribution under traditional PTHA analysis; in its place, a quantifiable, less subjective and generally smaller uncertainty related to the input to ERFs is included. The Nankai subduction zone is used as a test case, where previous ERFs have been conducted. Results indicate that the locations of representative earthquakes are sensitive to choice of magnitude–area relation and to whether a minimum cumulative stress objective is imposed on the fault. In general, incorporating ERFs into PTHA provide a physically self-consistent method to incorporate fault slip information in determining representative earthquakes for onshore PTHA, eliminating a major source of epistemic uncertainty.

Nankai subduction zone↗
USGS2022

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗