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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Flood-inundation maps for Big Creek from the McGinnis Ferry Road bridge to the confluence of Hog Wallow Creek, Alpharetta and Roswell, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 12.4-mile reach of Big Creek that extends from 260 feet above the McGinnis Ferry Road bridge to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage at Big Creek below Hog Wallow Creek at Roswell, Georgia (02335757), were developed by the USGS in cooperation with the cities of Alpharetta and Roswell, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Big Creek near Alpharetta, Georgia (02335700). Real-time stage information from this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs for many streams where the USGS operates streamgages and provides flow data. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Big Creek near Alpharetta (02335700), available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed for this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC–RAS software for Big Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 12.4-mile reach of Big Creek. The model was calibrated using the most current (2015) stage-discharge relations at two USGS streamgages on Big Creek: Big Creek near Alpharetta (02335700) and Big Creek below Hog Wallow Creek at Roswell (02335757). The hydraulic model was then used to simulate 19 water-surface profiles at 0.5-foot intervals at the Big Creek near Alpharetta streamgage. The profiles ranged from just above bankfull stage (6.0 feet) to approximately 1.95 feet above the highest recorded water level at the Alpharetta streamgage site (15.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from light detection and ranging data having a 3.0-foot horizontal resolution—to delineate the area flooded at each 0.5-foot interval of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time stage information from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stage from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, in addition to post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia↗
USGS2019

Modelling development of riparian ranchlands using ecosystem services at the Aravaipa Watershed, SE Arizona

This paper describes how subdivision and development of rangelands within a remote and celebrated semiarid watershed near the US-Mexico border might affect multiple ecohydrological services provided, such as recharge of the aquifer, water and sediment yield, water quality, flow rates and downstream cultural and natural resources. Specifically, we apply an uncalibrated watershed model and land-change forecasting scenario to consider the potential effects of converting rangelands to housing developments and document potential changes in hydrological ecosystem services. A new method to incorporate weather data in watershed modelling is introduced. Results of introducing residential development in this fragile arid environment portray changes in the water budget, including increases in surface-water runoff, water yield, and total sediment loading. Our findings also predict slight reductions in lateral soil water, a component of the water budget that is increasingly becoming recognized as critical to maintaining water availability in arid regions. We discuss how the proposed development on shrub/scrub rangelands could threaten to sever imperative ecohydrological interactions and impact multiple ecosystem services. This research highlights rangeland management issues important for the protection of open-space, economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services, conservation easements, and incentives to develop markets for these.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for projected changes in water quality and quantity for protected areas in the upper Midwest

Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to natural resource managers charged with the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. Forecasting the potential impacts of climate changes will be important for decision-makers and land managers seeking to minimize impacts to habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations and prepare for the future. In collaboration with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) managers, we developed a climate change vulnerability assessment to spatially evaluate climate vulnerabilities across the Midwest region. To create the vulnerability assessment, we convened resource managers and scientists working across the region to determine the components and scope of the vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment was watershed-based and composed of 15 indicators of climate change and five indicators that reflect the capacity of a watershed to buffer against the effects of climate change. The indicators were selected by FWS managers to have broad applicability across systems and programs in the FWS. To facilitate usability, we created an online application that allows users to generate customizable vulnerability assessments. We then integrated the assessment into a process for engaging in climate change adaptation thinking as a precursor to formal planning, implementation, and monitoring of adaptation actions. The process we designed focused on understanding the components of the system, assessing climate change vulnerabilities, creating and describing possible climate change scenarios, and identifying impacts and adaptation options for each scenario. We piloted this process in a virtual workshop setting with FWS managers and biologists on the topic of managed wetland systems. This work is currently being used by the FWS to better understand regional vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies and to advance integration of climate science into formal planning processes.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2001

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗
USGS2026

Reconstructing Great Lakes air temperature and ice dynamics data back to 1897

Ice cover on the Great Lakes plays an important role in regional climate, supports tourism and recreation, and provides ecological habitat. As the climate warms, ice cover in the Great Lakes is expected to decline, which in turn will create more lake effect precipitation, reduce ice cover for recreation, and alter habitat for aquatic species. While it is important to understand the historical ice patterns to better understand past distributions of aquatic species and improve the accuracy of forecasts for future ice cover on the lakes, Great Lakes ice cover data prior to 1973 is scarce, due to the limited routine satellite observations. We used weather station data around the Great Lakes to compile daily air temperature, calculate cumulative freezing degree-days and net melting degree-days from 1897–2023, and develop raster layers estimating ice duration and variability spatially during the historical period from 1897–1960.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2006

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Simulation of Runoff and Reservoir Inflow for Use in a Flood-Analysis Model for the Delaware River, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York, 2004-2006

A model was developed to simulate inflow to reservoirs and watershed runoff to streams during three high-flow events between September 2004 and June 2006 for the main-stem subbasin of the Delaware River draining to Trenton, N.J. The model software is a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The PRMS model simulates time periods associated with main-stem flooding that occurred in September 2004, April 2005, and June 2006 and uses both daily and hourly time steps. Output from the PRMS model was formatted for use as inflows to a separately documented reservoir and riverrouting model, the HEC-ResSim model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center to evaluate flooding. The models were integrated through a graphical user interface. The study area is the 6,780 square-mile watershed of the Delaware River in the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York that drains to Trenton, N.J. A geospatial database was created for use with a geographic information system to assist model discretization, determine land-surface characterization, and estimate model parameters. The USGS National Elevation Dataset at 100-meter resolution, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), was used for model discretization into streams and hydrologic response units. In addition, geospatial processing was used to estimate initial model parameters from the DEM and other data layers, including land use. The model discretization represents the study area using 869 hydrologic response units and 452 stream segments. The model climate data for point stations were obtained from multiple sources. These sources included daily data for 22 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Climate Station network stations, hourly data for 15 stations from the National Climatic Data Center, hourly data for 1 station from the NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center records, and daily and hourly data for 7 stations operated by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection. The NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimate data set for 2001-2007 was used for computing daily precipitation for the model and for computing hourly precipitation for storm simulation periods. Calibration of the PRMS model included regression and optimization algorithms, as well as manual adjustments of model parameters. The general goal of the calibration procedure was to minimize the difference between discharge measured at USGS streamgages and the corresponding discharge simulated by the model. Daily streamflow data from 35 USGS streamgages were used in model calibration. The streamflow data represent areas draining from 20.2 to 6,780 square miles. The PRMS model simulates reservoir inflow and watershed runoff for use as input into HECResSim for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the effects of different watershed conditions on main-stem flooding in the Delaware River watershed draining to Trenton, N.J. The PRMS model is useful as a planning tool to simulate the effects of land-use changes and different antecedent conditions on local runoff and reservoir inflow and, as input to the HEC-ResSim model, on flood flows in the main stem of the Delaware River.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa (Hawai‘i) erupted for the first time in 38 years, initially producing lava flows that covered the floor of its summit caldera, Moku‘āweoweo. Over the first 12 h following the summit eruption, four main fissures opened on Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, with “fissure 3” quickly becoming the dominant source of lava flows. For the next 12 days, fissure 3 produced a 19-km-long lava flow to the north, crossing the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory access road and coming within 2.8 km of inundating the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road). Within 40 min of fissure 3 opening, inundation modeling efforts had begun. For the duration of the eruption, the computational fluid dynamics model Lava2d was run in real time, using flow front locations and other field observations to make sequential forecast improvements, eventually producing a set of models which accurately predicted the routing and arrival times of lava from fissure 3. These models were used to inform timing estimates of possible future inundation of the Saddle Road. As the eruption progressed, almost 4000 Lava2d models were made using high-performance computing resources, providing critical information on uncertainty in multi-week forecasts. To our knowledge, this was the first ever real-time physics-based ensemble lava flow modeling and forecasting effort. Here, we present a chronology of these real-time efforts, focusing on the successes and limitations of this approach.

Hawaii↗
USGS2005

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

Circular↗
USGS2011

Observed and forecast flood-inundation mapping application-A pilot study of an eleven-mile reach of the White River, Indianapolis, Indiana

Near-real-time and forecast flood-inundation mapping products resulted from a pilot study for an 11-mile reach of the White River in Indianapolis. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Indiana Silver Jackets hazard mitigation taskforce members, the National Weather Service (NWS), the Polis Center, and Indiana University, in cooperation with the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Museum of Art, the Indiana Department of Homeland Security, and the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water. The pilot project showed that it is technically feasible to create a flood-inundation map library by means of a two-dimensional hydraulic model, use a map from the library to quickly complete a moderately detailed local flood-loss estimate, and automatically run the hydraulic model during a flood event to provide the maps and flood-damage information through a Web graphical user interface. A library of static digital flood-inundation maps was created by means of a calibrated two-dimensional hydraulic model. Estimated water-surface elevations were developed for a range of river stages referenced to a USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point colocated within the study reach. These maps were made available through the Internet in several formats, including geographic information system, Keyhole Markup Language, and Portable Document Format. A flood-loss estimate was completed for part of the study reach by using one of the flood-inundation maps from the static library. The Federal Emergency Management Agency natural disaster-loss estimation program HAZUS-MH, in conjunction with local building information, was used to complete a level 2 analysis of flood-loss estimation. A Service-Oriented Architecture-based dynamic flood-inundation application was developed and was designed to start automatically during a flood, obtain near real-time and forecast data (from the colocated USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point within the study reach), run the two-dimensional hydraulic model, and produce flood-inundation maps. The application used local building data and depth-damage curves to estimate flood losses based on the maps, and it served inundation maps and flood-loss estimates through a Web-based graphical user interface.

Indiana↗
USGS1994

United States Geological Survey, programs in Texas

Meteorologic and physiographic factors in parts of Texas combine to produce some of the most intense rainstorms in the Nation; these rainstorms cause severe, destructive floods somewhere in the State almost every year. A recent example is the catastrophic flooding in the Houston area in October 1994 that resulted in at least 22 deaths, hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage, and substantial environmental damage. When flooding is imminent, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mobilizes field crews that work around the clock making direct measurements of streamflow and water-surface elevations. The data collected by USGS personnel are provided continuously to the National Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency among others. The data collected during a series of floods provide a chronology of historical peak streamflows and water-surface elevations that aid in flood forecasting and the design of structures to convey or withstand flood waters.

Texas↗
USGS2018

Forecasting for dry and wet avalanches during mixed rain and snow storm events

Natural wet slab avalanches release when rain or melt water decreases snowpack strength, and natural dry slab avalanches release when an increased load overcomes snowpack strength. This study investigates avalanche activity resulting from mixed rain and snow falling on a faceted snowpack. This scenario produced an extensive slab avalanche cycle in March 2018 in the mountains near Ketchum, Idaho, when a 24 hour storm deposited 50 to 65 mm of water. We investigate the contributions of the pre-existing snowpack structure and weather to avalanching, and suggest possible mechanisms for the observed slab avalanche activity. At upper elevations, expected widespread, 0.5 to 3 m deep, dry slab avalanche activity occurred on many aspects. However, at middle elevations (2300 m to 2700 m) near the fluctuating rain-snow line, a low frequency return period avalanche cycle occurred in a much smaller geographical area, and was concentrated around north-northwest aspects. This differs significantly from avalanches above this elevation that spanned all aspects. This scenario illustrates the challenges forecasting and communicating these events. In our experience, some avalanche cycles exist in a continuum of avalanche types that are not easily sorted into simple “wet” and “dry” categories. We discuss challenges in using current advisory and bulletin communication tools. Furthermore, it is possible that a changing climate will increase the frequency of mixed rain-snow events in areas with traditionally drier and colder climates. We believe the avalanche community will benefit from the refinement and development of tools and techniques to describe and forecast this challenging problem.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2008

Instrumentation recommendations for volcano monitoring at U.S. volcanoes under the national volcano early warning system

As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding “country rock.” Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at midlatitude or high-latitude volcanoes; (c) safety factors during unrest, which can limit where new instrumentation can safely be installed (particularly at near-vent sites that can be critical for precursor detection and eruption forecasting); and (d) the remoteness of many U.S. volcanoes (particularly those in the Aleutians and the Marianas Islands), where access is difficult or impossible most of the year. Given these difficulties, it is reasonable to anticipate that ground-based monitoring of eruptions at U.S. volcanoes will likely be performed primarily with instruments installed before unrest begins. 2. Given a growing awareness of previously undetected 2. phenomena that may occur before an eruption begins, at present the types and (or) density of instruments in use at most U.S. volcanoes is insufficient to provide reliable early warning of volcanic eruptions. As shown by the gap analysis of Ewert and others (2005), a number of U.S. volcanoes lack even rudimentary monitoring. At those volcanic systems with monitoring instrumentation in place, only a few types of phenomena can be tracked in near-real time, principally changes in seismicity, deformation, and large-scale changes in thermal flux (through satellite-based remote sensing). Furthermore, researchers employing technologically advanced instrumentation at volcanoes around the world starting in the 1990s have shown that subtle and previously undetectable phenomena can precede or accompany eruptions. Detection of such phenomena would greatly improve the ability of U.S. volcano observatories to provide accurate early warnings of impending eruptions, and is a critical capability particularly at the very high-threat volcanoes identified by Ewert and others (2005). For these two reasons, change from a reactive to a proactive volcano-monitoring strategy is clearly needed at U.S. volcanoes. Monitoring capabilities need to be expanded at virtually every volcanic center, regardless of its current state of unrest, with particular emphases on real-time data transmission and increasing the diversity, quality, and quantity of instrumentation at U.S. volcano observatories. In this report, we present recommendations for the types and numbers of instruments that should be deployed to monitor U.S. volcanoes. These recommendations are the result of discussions among members of a panel of government- and university-based scientists about the status and future directions of volcano monitoring, with discussions framed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)’s National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) initiative (Ewert and others, 2005).

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Forecasting for dry and wet avalanches during mixed rain and snow storm events

Professionals in coastal and some inland mountain ranges regularly face mixed rain-snow events. Professionals in inland ranges frequently deal with persistent slab avalanches failing on old faceted layers buried deep within the snowpack. What happens when you combine these snowpack and weather events? Widespread avalanching involving faceted layers during mixed rain-snow events is rarely observed and is not as well-understood. Last March, USFS Sawtooth Avalanche Center (SAC) staff observed this scenario.

The Avalanche Review↗
USGS2009

Earth's magnetic field complex: U.S. National activities during the Decade of Geopotential Field Research

The US geomagnetism community is supported by NASA, NOAA, USGS, NSF, DOD, and US universities. During the Decade of Geopotential Field Research, inaugurated in 1999 with the launch of the Danish satellite Ørsted on a US rocket, the US community has been involved in satellite mission development and analysis, instrument development, model development, and in the discovery and understanding of new processes with satellite magnetic signatures. The ESA Swarm mission has been a primary focus of the US community, with three US scientists on Swarm's Mission Advisory Group. Swarm will measure, for the first time, the E-W gradient of the magnetic field. One of us (T. Sabaka) is involved with the development of a Comprehensive inversion scheme as part of the SMART consortium. This effort is an outgrowth of the Comprehensive Model [1]. Swarm will also provide valuable observations for ionospheric specification and forecast. The geomagnetism group at NOAA (S. Maus, P. Alken and C. Manoj) has developed algorithms to estimate the strength of the eastward electric field (EEF). As the driver of the equatorial plasma fountain, the EEF is an important space weather parameter. ESA is considering the implementation of the EEF as a dedicated inversion chain in the Level-2 Facility. In 2006, NASA launched a minisatellite magnetometer constellation mission (ST-5) to test technologies and software. The ST-5 constellation featured the first along-track gradient measurements. NASA has also initiated efforts to study geomagnetism mission concepts after Swarm. One of the ideas under consideration is the systematic measurement of radial field gradients. Instrument development, and geomagnetic observatories, are also an integral part of the US effort. The past decade has seen significant advances in the development of a self-calibrating vector helium magnetometer, and in the automation of the US observatory network. Working in coordination with Intermagnet, the USGS Geomagnetism Program has made operational 1-second data acquisition at 13 of its magnetic observatories. The Program is also developing a realtime 1-minute and 1-hour Dst service. Within the past decade, US scientists have been leaders in the development of models that describe the global geomagnetic environment, including comprehensive models (the CM series), maps of the lithospheric field from satellite (MF-series), near surface maps of the lithospheric field (WDMAM-series), models of the thickness of the magnetic crust, the IGRF and World Magnetic Model series, ionospheric models such as the EEJM1, JVDM1, and the IRI, and data assimilation-based models (MoSST-series) that predict the future state of the geomagneic field.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2023

Long short-term memory models to quantify long-term evolution of streamflow discharge and groundwater depth in Alabama

Long short-term memory (LSTM) models have been shown to be efficient for rainfall-runoff modeling, and to a lesser extent, for groundwater depth forecasting. In this study, LSTMs were applied to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of surface and subsurface hydrographs in Alabama in the Southeastern United States, where water sustainability has not been fully quantified across spatiotemporal scales. First, the surface water LSTM model with extensive dynamic (precipitation and other weather variables) and static (basin characteristics) inputs predicted the main characteristics of streamflow for six years at 19 gauged basins in Alabama. The model tended to underestimate extremely high streamflow but adding drainage density as an input feature slightly improved the predictions of extreme events. Second, to predict the groundwater depth evolution, a groundwater LSTM (GW-LSTM) model was proposed and applied using static inputs capturing the aquifers' hydrogeological properties and dynamic inputs of meteorological information. Three precipitation scenarios were also explored to evaluate the groundwater hydrograph evolution in the next two decades. The GW-LSTM model predicted the general trend of daily groundwater depth fluctuations (at 21 wells distributed across Alabama from 1990 to 2021) including most extremely high groundwater levels, and recovered groundwater depth for locations withheld from model training and validation. This study, therefore, extended the application of LSTMs in quantifying the spatiotemporal evolution of surface water and groundwater, two manifestations of a single integrated resource.

Alabama↗
USGS2002

Evaluating the performance of a crop water balance model in estimating regional crop production

The comparison between a spatially distributed crop index and reported yield was evaluated. The crop index was generated by a crop water balance model that simulates the reduction of crop yield (as a percentage of the potential) due to water deficit. This model is currently operational as a monitoring and forecasting tool for region-wide food security analyses in drought prone countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The most important input parameters of the model are Africa-wide satellite-based rainfall estimate images and spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration images calculated from 6-hourly numerical weather model data. District level crop yield data from Ethiopia were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Historical sorghum yield data from 1996-1999 were used to evaluate the performance of a seasonal water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for sorghum. WRSI values and reported district yield data were significantly correlated. The WRSI model was particularly successful in capturing the response of the crop during a relatively dry year. In districts that never experienced water deficit during the study period, it was possible to infer the magnitude of yield variability that was caused by factors other than water supply.

Sub-Saharan Africa↗