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USGS2016

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero ( Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer ). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Ca↗

USGS2012

Introduction to emergent wetlands: Chapter A in Emergent wetlands status and trends in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1950-2010

Throughout the past century, emergent wetlands have been declining across the Gulf of Mexico. Emergent wetland ecosystems provide a plethora of resources including plant and wildlife habitat, commercial and recreational economic activity, water quality improvement, and natural barriers against storms. As emergent wetland losses increase, so does the need for information on the causes and effects of these losses, for emergent wetland mapping, for monitoring and restoration efforts, and for increased education. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of Mexico Program Office (EPA GMPO) are committed to providing the best science to restore, enhance, and protect these important ecosystems. The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is a continuation of the completed Seagrass Status and Trends in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Report (Handley and others, 2007), both of which serve to update the EPA GMPO Status and Trends of Emergent and Submerged Vegetated Habitats of Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters, USA Report (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is also part of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Ecosystems Integration and Assessment Priority Issue Team’s work plan to provide resources that will aid in the ecological and economic enhancement of the Gulf of Mexico region. The purpose of this report is to provide scientists, managers, and citizens with valuable baseline information on the status and trends of emergent wetlands along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The study upon which this report is based examines the emergent wetlands of eight individual estuarine areas within the northern Gulf of Mexico region and presents statewide summaries for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Each estuarine area is detailed in vignettes that address current status and historical trends of estuarine and palustrine emergent wetlands, emergent wetlands mapping and monitoring, causes of status change, restoration and enhancement activities, background information for the study area, and the methodology employed to analyze and document the historical trends and current status of emergent wetlands. The eight individual estuarine areas examined in this report are:  Corpus Christi/ Nueces/Aransas Bays, Tex.  Galveston Bay, Tex.  Barataria/Terrebonne Bay, La.  Mississippi Delta, La.  Mississippi Sound, Miss.  Mobile Bay, Ala.  Florida Panhandle, Fla.  Tampa Bay, Fla.

Report↗

USGS2004

Summary of water quality trends in the Connecticut River, 1968-1998

The Connecticut River has a long history of water quality impairment. From the 1800s to the late 1960s, untreated or minimally treated waste discharges from population centers and industries have caused serious water quality problems. Trend analysis of selected water quality data in Connecticut from 1968 to 1998, collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, shows that water quality has improved, benefiting aquatic plants and animals, recreation, and the esthetics of the river. Many of the trends detected—including downward trends in total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and indicator bacteria, and upward trends in pH and dissolved oxygen—can be attributed primarily to improvements in wastewater treatment following the Federal Clean Water Act of 1972. Some uncertainty remains in evaluating the environmental significance of trends in dissolved oxygen, pH, and other constituents with diurnal fluctuations caused by plant metabolism. Downward trends in sulfate concentrations likely are attributable to reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions mandated by the Clean Air Act of 1970 and amendments made in 1990. Upward trends in chloride concentrations illustrate some effects of increasing urbanization and nonpoint-source pollution. Current (2003) and future water quality challenges for the Connecticut River include reducing nitrogen loads from point and nonpoint sources, reducing bacteria and other contaminant concentrations in urban stormwater runoff, and separating stormwater and sanitary sewers at some locations to prevent combined-sewer overflows.

Connecticut↗

USGS2017

Hydrologic metrics for status-and-trends monitoring in urban and urbanizing watersheds

Local governmental agencies are increasingly undertaking potentially costly “status-and-trends” monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of stormwater control measures and land-use planning strategies, or to satisfy regulatory requirements. Little guidance is presently available for such efforts, and so we have explored the application, interpretation, and temporal limitations of well-established hydrologic metrics of runoff changes from urbanization, making use of an unusually long-duration, high-quality data set from the Pacific Northwest (USA) with direct applicability to urban and urbanizing watersheds. Three metrics previously identified for their utility in identifying hydrologic conditions with biological importance that respond to watershed urbanization—T Qmean (the fraction of time that flows exceed the mean annual discharge), the Richards-Baker Index (characterizing flashiness relative to the mean discharge), and the annual tally of wet-season day-to-day flow reversals (the total number of days that reverse the prior days’ increasing or decreasing trend)—are all successful in stratifying watersheds across a range of urbanization, as measured by total contributing area of urban development. All metrics respond with statistical significance to multi-decadal trends in urbanization, but none detect trends in watershed-scale urbanization over the course of a single decade. This suggests a minimum period over which dependable trends in hydrologic alteration (or improvement) can be detected with confidence. The metrics also prove less well suited to urbanizing watersheds in a semi-arid climate, with only flow reversals showing a response consistent with prior findings from more humid regions. We also explore the use of stage as a surrogate for discharge in calculating these metrics, recognizing potentially significant agency cost savings in data collection with minimal loss of information. This approach is feasible but cannot be implemented under current data-reporting practices, requiring measurement of water-depth values and preservation of the full precision of the original recorded data. With these caveats, however, hydrologic metrics based on stage should prove as or more useful, at least in the context of status-and-trends monitoring, as those based on subsequent calculations of discharge.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2001

Trends in total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentrations of tributaries to the Swan - Canning Estuary, 1987 to 1998

Temporal wet-season trends from 1987 to 1998 of total N and total P concentrations (TN and TP, respectively) in 14 tributaries to the Swan-Canning Estuary in Western Australia were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall or Seasonal kendall tests. Six of the catchments drained clay soils primarily on the Darling Plateau, which borders the sandy coastal plain on the east; two rural catchments drained the coastal plain; and six urban catchments drained the coastal plain. Generally, TN and TP were lower in tributaries draining clay soils than in tributaries draining siliceous sandy soils. Annual median TN and TP were relatively constant and no trends were detected in tributaries draining clay soils. TN and TP were higher (median TN = 1.6 and TP = 0.1 mg 1-1) and more variable temporally in tributaries draining the coastal plain. Statistically significant (?? < 0.01) TN trends were detected in 50% of the urban coastal plain tributaries and most were decreasing (-0.07 to +0.53 mg 1-1 year-1). Decreasing TP trends were detected at the two rural coastal plain tributaries and two of the urban drains (-0.01 to 0.15 mg 1-1 year-1 over periods from 5 to 12 years). Flow adjustment of TN and TP was responsible for removing trends in the raw data at some sites. The inter-annual variability of TN and TP of coastal plain tributaries was also related to the proximity of the water table to the land surface, which in turn was related to the annual precipitation. Fixed-interval sampling may be able to detect TN and TP changes associated with the implementation of management strategies in sandy coastal plain catchments. Tributary sampling during rainstorms and continuous monitoring of discharge are needed to better define processes controlling nutrient flux and concentration variability, and to detect trends in the urban catchments and the clay soil catchments, primarily those draining the Darling Plateau. Copyright ?? 2001 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2013

Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawaii, 1913-2008

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2019

Pacific sea surface temperature linkages with Tanzania’s multi-season drying trends

Droughts in Tanzania pose challenges to agriculture, water resources, and hydropower production, all of which impact livelihoods. Tanzania experienced below average precipitation during 1999-2014 during two important seasons: December to February (DJF) in the south and during March to June (MAMJ) in the northeast. We explore DJF and MAMJ precipitation in the areas with drying trends and examine their relationships with anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indo-Pacific and corresponding circulation patterns. It is found that at seasonal time scales, precipitation in DJF and MAMJ trend areas appears inversely related to diabatic forcing in the equatorial Pacific. The dominant influence for droughts in DJF is from eastern Pacific SST while for droughts in MAMJ it is from West Pacific SST. A bivariate regression model with West Pacific and Niño3.4 region SST as predictors is found to recreate multidecadal DJF variability after the 1950s and the extreme drying in MAMJ during the 2000s. The regression model coefficients also indicate differential eastern vs. western Pacific forcing for DJF vs. MAMJ. Thus we suggest that recent La Niña-like conditions, characterized by an enhanced Pacific SST gradient due to cooling in the eastern Pacific and warming in the western Pacific, played a substantial role in Tanzania’s recent multi-season drying trends. SST change scenarios (difference between 2023-2037 and 2000-2014 means) based on CMIP5 projections and observed trends illustrate the uncertainty about future precipitation outcomes and also the potential implications of contrasting linkages to eastern vs. western Pacific SSTs. These scenarios are mainly optimistic for the DJF southern Tanzania trend area, because it appears dominated by Niño3.4 cooling at both seasonal and decadal time scales. Conversely, our scenarios are quite pessimistic for the MAMJ northeastern Tanzania trend area, because we find a dominant negative influence of warming West Pacific SST.

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts a↗

USGS2026

Population trends of dabbling ducks wintering in the alluvial valleys of Arkansas and Mississippi

Population abundances, distributions, and compositions across a diversity of taxa are changing, partly as a consequence of human-induced global modifications. Although linking population fluctuations to anthropogenic-induced alterations can be challenging, it is increasingly clear that long-term monitoring is critical to understanding changing populations. For waterfowl, concerns over recent declines in breeding populations or possible redistribution from using traditional wintering grounds for some species support continued monitoring of regional populations. To further understand population trends on traditional wintering grounds, we examined abundance trends over time within the Mississippi and Arkansas portions of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, using two sources of data: systematic aerial surveys and citizen science data. We found great annual variability in rates of population change ( r ranging from −1.04 to 0.71) in five species of dabbling ducks. Despite this annual variation, green-winged teal Anas carolinensis , mallards Anas platyrhynchos , northern pintail Anas acuta , and northern shoveler Spatula clypeata showed no significant trends in population size over approximately 15 years in Mississippi and Arkansas, but gadwall Mareca strepera showed a 4% annual increase in the citizen science data for Mississippi. Despite substantial variation in annual abundance, the timing of peak abundance was remarkably consistent from year to year, with peaks typically occurring in January. Our results demonstrate that autumn–winter population numbers of dabbling ducks can be quite variable interannually, but they lack a consistent trend in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley during the past two decades. Going forward, investigation into how citizen science data could be leveraged to increase the precision of trends within this landscape might be of benefit, and sampling efforts could perhaps be added towards the latter portion of the wintering period. As populations continue to adjust in a changing world, maintaining monitoring surveys in regions important to waterfowl is an effective and important means of evaluating trends.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of the Vital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year −1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year −1 in most indicators.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2015

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Illinois River↗

USGS2016

Triennial changes in groundwater quality in aquifers used for public supply in California: Utility as indicators of temporal trends

From 2004 to 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples from 1686 wells across the State of California as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board’s Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP). From 2007 to 2013, 224 of these wells were resampled to assess temporal trends in water quality. The samples were analyzed for 216 water-quality constituents, including inorganic and organic compounds as well as isotopic tracers. The resampled wells were grouped into five hydrogeologic zones. A nonparametric hypothesis test was used to test the differences between initial sampling and resampling results to evaluate possible step trends in water-quality, statewide, and within each hydrogeologic zone. The hypothesis tests were performed on the 79 constituents that were detected in more than 5 % of the samples collected during either sampling period in at least one hydrogeologic zone. Step trends were detected for 17 constituents. Increasing trends were detected for alkalinity, aluminum, beryllium, boron, lithium, orthophosphate, perchlorate, sodium, and specific conductance. Decreasing trends were detected for atrazine, cobalt, dissolved oxygen, lead, nickel, pH, simazine, and tritium. Tritium was expected to decrease due to decreasing values in precipitation, and the detection of decreases indicates that the method is capable of resolving temporal trends.

California↗

USGS2011

Empirical methods for detecting regional trends and other spatial expressions in antrim shale gas productivity, with implications for improving resource projections using local nonparametric estimation techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

The effect of submerged aquatic vegetation expansion on a declining turbidity trend in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has well-documented effects on water clarity. SAV beds can slow water movement and reduce bed shear stress, promoting sedimentation and reducing suspension. However, estuaries have multiple controls on turbidity that make it difficult to determine the effect of SAV on water clarity. In this study, we investigated the effect of primarily invasive SAV expansion on a concomitant decline in turbidity in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The objective of this study was to separate the effects of decreasing sediment supply from the watershed from increasing SAV cover to determine the effect of SAV on the declining turbidity trend. SAV cover was determined by airborne hyperspectral remote sensing and turbidity data from long-term monitoring records. The turbidity trends were corrected for the declining sediment supply using suspended-sediment concentration data from a station immediately upstream of the Delta. We found a significant negative trend in turbidity from 1975 to 2008, and when we removed the sediment supply signal from the trend it was still significant and negative, indicating that a factor other than sediment supply was responsible for part of the turbidity decline. Turbidity monitoring stations with high rates of SAV expansion had steeper and more significant turbidity trends than those with low SAV cover. Our findings suggest that SAV is an important (but not sole) factor in the turbidity decline, and we estimate that 21–70 % of the total declining turbidity trend is due to SAV expansion.

California↗

USGS1993

Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas

Surface water quality data for 15 sampling stations in the Arkansas, Verdigris, Neosho, and Walnut river basins inside the state of Kansas were analyzed to detect trends (or lack of trends) in 17 major constituents by using four different non-parametric methods. The results show that concentrations of specific conductance, total dissolved solids, calcium, total hardness, sodium, potassium, alkalinity, sulfate, chloride, total phosphorus, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, and suspended sediment generally have downward trends. Some of the downward trends are related to increases in discharge, while others could be caused by decreases in pollution sources. Homogeneity tests show that both station-wide trends and basinwide trends are non-homogeneous.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2019

Water-quality trends in U.S. rivers, 2002 to 2012: Relations to levels of concern

Effective management and protection of water resources relies upon understanding how water-quality conditions are changing over time. Water-quality trends for ammonia, chloride, nitrate, sulfate, total dissolved solids (TDS), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were assessed at 762 sites located in the conterminous United States between 2002 and 2012. Annual mean concentrations at the start and end of the trend period were compared to an environmentally meaningful level of concern (LOC) to categorize patterns in water-quality changes. Trend direction, magnitude, and the proximity of concentrations to LOCs were investigated. Of the 1956 site-constituent combinations investigated, 30% were above the LOC in 2002, and only six (0.3%) crossed the LOC threshold, either from above or below, indicating that waterquality conditions are not substantially improving, nor are they degrading, in relation to the LOCs. The concentrations of ammonia, nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and TDS tended to be below the LOC, and in cases where the trend was increasing (concentrations approached the LOC from below), the increases were varied and small in magnitude. In contrast, concentrations of TN and TP tended to be above the LOC, and where the trend was decreasing (concentrations approached the LOC from above), the decreases were larger in magnitude and more consistent. These results indicate that if water-quality conditions continue to trend in the same direction, at the same rate, for all sites and constituents studied, elevated concentrations are more likely to drop below an LOC before low concentrations will exceed an LOC.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2003

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Alaska↗