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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

USGS2008

A dynamic marine calcium cycle during the past 28 million years

Multiple lines of evidence have shown that the isotopic composition and concentration of calcium in seawater have changed over the past 28 million years. A high-resolution, continuous seawater calcium isotope ratio curve from marine (pelagic) barite reveals distinct features in the evolution of the seawater calcium isotopic ratio suggesting changes in seawater calcium concentrations. The most pronounced increase in the ??44/40Ca value of seawater (of 0.3 per mil) occurred over roughly 4 million years following a period of low values around 13 million years ago. The major change in marine calcium corresponds to a climatic transition and global change in the carbon cycle and suggests a reorganization of the global biogeochemical system.

Science↗

USGS2011

USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2011

Using observed warming to identify hazards to Mozambique maize production

New Perspectives on Crop Yield Constraints because of Climate Change. Climate change impact assessments usually focus on changes to precipitation because most global food production is from rainfed cropping systems; however, other aspects of climate change may affect crop growth and potential yields.A recent (2011) study by the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group, determined that climate change may be affecting Mozambique's primary food crop in a usually overlooked, but potentially significant way (Harrison and others, 2011). The study focused on the direct relation between maize crop development and growing season temperature. It determined that warming during the past three decades in Mozambique may be causing more frequent crop stress and yield reductions in that country's maize crop, independent of any changes occurring in rainfall. This report summarizes the findings and conclusions of that study.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2025

A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework

Purpose of Review We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science. Recent Findings We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire. Summary Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Current Climate Change Reports↗

USGS2009

Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

Synthesis and Assessment Product↗

USGS2020

Paleoclimate ocean conditions shaped the evolution of corals and their skeletal composition through deep time

Identifying how past environmental conditions shaped the evolution of corals and their skeletal traits provides a framework for predicting their persistence and that of their non-calcifying relatives under impending global warming and ocean acidification. Here we show that ocean geochemistry, particularly aragonite–calcite seas, drives patterns of morphological evolution in anthozoans (corals, sea anemones) by examining skeletal traits in the context of a robust, time-calibrated phylogeny. The lability of skeletal composition among octocorals suggests a greater ability to adapt to changes in ocean chemistry compared with the homogeneity of the aragonitic skeleton of scleractinian corals. Pulses of diversification in anthozoans follow mass extinctions and reef crises, with sea anemones and proteinaceous corals filling empty niches as tropical reef builders went extinct. Changing environmental conditions will likely diminish aragonitic reef-building scleractinians, but the evolutionary history of the Anthozoa suggests other groups will persist and diversify in their wake.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2023

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

The ISME Journal↗

USGS2024

Infrasound for volcano monitoring

Introduction Volcanic eruptions produce acoustic waves when volcanic gases and hot material rapidly expand in the atmosphere. Volcanic activity can produce acoustic signals with a wide range of frequencies, from very long period (>10 seconds) to audible (>20 hertz [Hz]), but the most energetic band is typically in the infrasound from 0.5 to 20 Hz. Studies of volcanic infrasound and the deployment of infrasound for volcano monitoring have increased rapidly in the past two decades as sensors have improved and as analytical tools have become more widely available. Improved sensors and tools have led to a growing diversity of eruptive activity being recorded and characterized, from Hawaiian to Plinian eruption styles at scales from local to global (Johnson and Ripepe, 2011; Fee and Matoza, 2013). Infrasound sensors on volcanoes are most commonly deployed locally with seismic stations, and the combination of co-located seismic and infrasound is more useful for characterizing unrest and detecting changes in activity than either data stream alone (for example, Lyons and others, 2016; Fee and others, 2017a; Matoza and others, 2018). At local (<15 kilometers [km]) to regional (15–250 km) distances from volcanoes, arrays of infrasound sensors are commonly deployed to detect coherent signals, constrain the direction to the source, and provide information on eruption dynamics; thus, infrasound is well suited to regional monitoring of volcanoes when local sensor networks are not feasible. A common usage of infrasound data in an observatory is to provide rapid confirmation that an explosion has occurred (for example, Coombs and others, 2018), although near-real-time eruption intensity quantification is also possible (Fee and others, 2010a; Ripepe and others, 2018; fig. C1). Infrasound is well suited to this task because it is not affected by clouds or precipitation and can propagate long distances with little attenuation. However, wind and ocean noise also produce infrasound, and spatiotemporal variability in the atmosphere can affect the propagation of infrasound, so care must be taken when deploying, analyzing, and interpreting the data. In addition to detecting and monitoring explosive activity, investigations of infrasound records from eruptions help constrain source processes, which in turn enhance syneruptive forecasting capabilities (for example, Fee and others, 2017b; Lyons and others, 2019). The following is a description of the capabilities recommended for real-time monitoring of eruptive phenomena with infrasound. Infrasound is also beginning to be used for tracking hazardous surface flows that occur on volcanoes, including pyroclastic density currents (Ripepe and others, 2010), lahars (Johnson and Palma, 2015), debris flows (Marchetti and others, 2019), snow avalanches (Havens and others, 2014), and lava flows (Patrick and others, 2019). Please refer to the chapter on lahars (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024a) for more information on this application.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Shifts in the wintering distribution and abundance of Emperor Geese in Alaska

For wildlife species that winter at northern latitudes, harsh overwinter conditions can play an important role in population dynamics. Recent changes in global temperatures have resulted in distributional shifts of wildlife species, as well as amelioration of winter climates in northern landscapes. The emperor goose ( Anser canagicus ), an endemic migratory bird of the Bering Sea region, winters across a large area of the subarctic, with potential differences in migration strategies and costs among individuals. As a long-standing species of conservation concern due to decreased population size, understanding the response of emperor geese to changing conditions has become critical to on-going management. We sought to evaluate changes in wintering distribution and arrival/departure dates over time, by comparing spatial and temporal patterns of wintering emperor geese from 2015 to 2017 (using geolocator data) to satellite telemetry data collected from 1999 to 2004. Further, we quantified changes in spatial patterns of winter abundance by comparing historical and contemporary aerial and ground surveys at three island complexes encompassing most of their winter distribution. Our results indicate that emperor geese are arriving at wintering areas earlier and spending more time at these areas than in the past. Our comparisons among historical aerial and ground surveys suggests that increasing numbers of emperor geese are wintering closer to breeding areas in western Alaska; a change likely related to increasing habitat availability due to shifting environmental conditions. Our results also showed that fewer emperor geese are using an area in the core of their wintering range, suggesting either decreased habitat quality or a reduction in migration distance via alternative wintering locations. Overall, our study highlights a rapid response to apparent habitat change likely due to warming temperatures and a reduction in ice cover and emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions among migration distance, the environment, and habitat in interpreting site selection.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2017

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1984

Carbonate and organic-carbon cycles and the history of upwelling at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 532, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic Ocean

Detailed carbonate and organic-carbon stratigraphies were constructed from samples collected every 20 cm in a 250-m hydraulic piston core recovered at DSDP Site 532 on Walvis Ridge. This sampling interval represents about one sample every 5000 yr., based on sediment accumulation rates calculated from nannofossil biostratigraphic zones. All samples were analyzed for percent CaCO 3 , resulting in a detailed carbonate stratigraphy for the past 5.0 m.y. The samples for the top 110 m of section were also analyzed for organic carbon in order to construct a detailed organiccarbon stratigraphy for the last 2.5 m.y. The recovered section has distinct dark-light color cycles with average periodicities of 55, 58, and 30 k.y. for the Quaternary, upper Pliocene, and lower Pliocene, respectively. Periodicities of carbonate cycles are similar to the color cycles; most carbonate minima correspond to the dark parts of color cycles. The average periodicity for carbonate cycles is about 36 k.y. Darker parts of color cycles usually contain higher concentrations of organic carbon, but the organic-carbon record does not follow the cyclicity of the color cycles in detail, at least for the last 2.5 m.y. Organic-carbon cycles have an average periodicity of about 34 k.y. for the Quaternary and upper Pliocene. The cycles of CaCO 3 and color have periodicities similar to those reported from carbonate stratigraphies from the northeast Atlantic, Caribbean, and eastern equatorial Pacific. The carbonate cycles at Site 532 are the result of external forcing, probably related to global climate, that affected fluctuations in both sediment supply from the African continental margin and productivity of siliceous organisms. The organic-carbon cycles have similar periodicities and similar changes in periodicities to those of the CaCO 3 cycles. Semiquantitative estimates of diatom abundance from smear slides and concentrations of biogenic SiO 2 calculated from chemical analyses suggest that upwelling at Site 532 was minor until about 3 m.y. ago. The Benguela-Current upwelling system either began at that time or, more likely, migrated into the area of Site 532, where it prevailed until some time between about 1.2 and 0.5 m.y. ago. The increase and decline of upwelling in the area of Site 532, however, did not disturb the trend of cyclicities of carbonate and organic carbon. The latest change in conditions at Site 532 was an increase in intensity of bottom currents during the past 0.5 m.y. that winnowed nannofossils, diatoms, and clay and left a lag deposit represented by a foraminifer-rich fades

Initial Reports of the D.S.D.P.↗

USGS2024

Carbon isotope trends across a century of herbarium specimens suggest CO2 fertilization of C4 grasses.

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 is changing the dynamics of tropical savanna vegetation. C 3 trees and grasses are known to experience CO 2 fertilization, whereas responses to CO 2 by C 4 grasses are more ambiguous. Here, we sample stable carbon isotope trends in herbarium collections of South African C 4 and C 3 grasses to reconstruct 13 C discrimination. We found that C 3 grasses showed no trends in 13 C discrimination over the past century but that C 4 grasses increased their 13 C discrimination through time, especially since 1950. These changes were most strongly linked to changes in atmospheric CO 2 rather than to trends in rainfall climatology or temperature. Combined with previously published evidence that grass biomass has increased in C 4 -dominated savannas, these trends suggest that increasing water-use efficiency due to CO 2 fertilization may be changing C 4 plant–water relations. CO 2 fertilization of C 4 grasses may thus be a neglected pathway for anthropogenic global change in tropical savanna ecosystems.

New Phytologist↗

USGS2015

Comparison of U.S. net import reliance for nonfuel mineral commodities—A 60-year retrospective (1954–1984–2014)

Introduction The economic vitality and national security of the United States depend on the reliable supply of numerous nonfuel mineral commodities. Over the past six decades, many of these commodities have been sourced increasingly from outside the United States. The mix of commodities for which the United States is import dependent has changed as technologies have advanced, as substitute materials have been developed, and as world economies have changed. Although reliance on imports is only one of the many factors that determine supply risk, a clear, long-term trend has emerged from the data compiled and published by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS–NMIC), and its predecessor organizations. Because the global distribution of mineral resources and reserves is not uniform, the United States has always been import reliant for some mineral commodities. Essentially, the type of commodities and the countries from which they are sourced determine risk related to import dependence. In light of projections that 2.5 billion to 3 billion people globally could move into the middle class by 2030, the demand for many types of mineral commodities is likely to continue to increase. Recent concerns regarding so-called “critical minerals” have been driven by market dislocations in the rare-earth-element supply chain in 2010 that resulted from a short-term policy decision by the Government of the People’s Republic of China to limit exports. That policy has since been changed as a result of actions by the World Trade Organization, but the events that followed, such as higher prices and intensive efforts to diversify sources of supply, illustrate the underlying issues of supply risk and the influence that disruptions can have on supply. These factors are often used in the classification of a mineral commodity as “critical.” The USGS–NMIC collects, analyzes, and disseminates information on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis for more than 90 nonfuel mineral commodities from more than 180 countries. These data indicate that from 1954 through 2014 there was (1) a clear increase in the number and type of nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was net import reliant, (2) an increase in the percentage of import reliance for individual nonfuel mineral commodities, and (3) a shift in the geographic distribution of the source countries.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2014

The Pacific Islands Climate Science Center five-year science agenda, 2014-2018

From the heights of Mauna Kea on Hawaiʻi Island to the depths of the Mariana Trench, from densely populated cities to sparse rural indigenous communities and uninhabited sandy atolls, the Pacific region encompasses diverse associations of peoples and places that are directly affected by changes to the atmosphere, ocean, and land. The peoples of the Pacific are among the first to observe and experience the effects of global climatic changes. Because the Pacific region is predominantly composed of vast ocean expanses punctuated only by small, isolated emergent islands and atolls, marine processes are critical factors in the region’s climate systems, and their impacts occur here to a greater degree than in continental regions. Rates of sea-level rise in the region during the modern altimetry period exceed the global rate, with the highest increases occurring in the western North Pacific (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010; Nerem and others, 2010; Timmermann and others, 2010). The ocean has also warmed during this period. Since the 1970s, sea-surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.13 to 0.41 °F (0.07 to 0.23 °C) per decade, depending on the location (Keener and others, 2012a). Ocean chemistry has changed during this period as well, with surface pH having dropped by 0.1 pH units (Feely and others, 2009; Doney and others, 2012). Over the past century, air temperature has increased throughout the Pacific region. In Hawaiʻi, average temperatures increased by 0.08 °F per decade during the period 1919 to 2006, and in recent years, the rate of increase has been accelerating, particularly at high elevations (Giambelluca and others, 2008). In the western North Pacific, temperatures also increased over the past 60 years (Lander and Guard, 2003; Lander, 2004; Lander and Khosrowpanah, 2004; Kruk and others, 2013), with a concurrent warming trend in the central South Pacific since the 1950s (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011).

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium

Western North America (WNA) is rich in hydroclimate reconstructions, yet questions remain about the causes of decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability. Teleconnection patterns preserved in annually-resolved tree-ring reconstructed drought maps, and anomalies in a global network of proxy sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, were used to reassess the evidence linking ocean forcing to WNA hydroclimate variability over the past millennium. Potential forcing mechanisms of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and individual drought and pluvial events—including two multidecadal-length MCA pluvials—were evaluated. We show strong teleconnection patterns occurred during the driest (wettest) years within persistent droughts (pluvials), implicating SSTs as a potent hydroclimate forcing mechanism. The role of the SSTs on longer timescales is more complex. Pacific teleconnection patterns show little long-term change, whereas low-resolution SST reconstructions vary over decades to centuries. While weaker than the tropical Pacific teleconnections, North Atlantic teleconnection patterns and SST reconstructions also show links to WNA droughts and pluvials, and may in part account for longer-term WNA hydroclimate changes. Nonetheless, evidence linking WNA hydroclimate to SSTs still remains sparse and nuanced—especially over long-timescales with a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than characterized during the 20th century.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2019

The state of the world’s mangrove forests: Past, present, and future

Intertidal mangrove forests are a dynamic ecosystem experiencing rapid changes in extent and habitat quality over geological history, today and into the future. Climate and sea level have drastically altered mangrove distribution since their appearance in the geological record ∼75 million years ago (Mya), through to the Holocene. In contrast, contemporary mangrove dynamics are driven primarily by anthropogenic threats, including pollution, overextraction, and conversion to aquaculture and agriculture. Deforestation rates have declined in the past decade, but the future of mangroves is uncertain; new deforestation frontiers are opening, particularly in Southeast Asia and West Africa, despite international conservation policies and ambitious global targets for rehabilitation. In addition, geological and climatic processes such as sea-level rise that were important over geological history will continue to influence global mangrove distribution in the future. Recommendations are given to reframe mangrove conservation, with a view to improving the state of mangroves in the future.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources↗

USGS2024

New uses for ancient middens: Bridging ecological and evolutionary perspectives

Rodent middens provide a fine-scale spatiotemporal record of plant and animal communities over the late Quaternary. In the Americas, middens have offered insight into biotic responses to past environmental changes and historical factors influencing the distribution and diversity of species. However, few studies have used middens to investigate genetic or ecosystem level responses. Integrating midden studies with neoecology and experimental evolution can help address these gaps and test mechanisms underlying eco-evolutionary patterns across biological and spatiotemporal scales. Fully realizing the potential of middens to answer cross-cutting ecological and evolutionary questions and inform conservation goals in the Anthropocene will require a collaborative research community to exploit existing midden archives and mount new campaigns to leverage midden records globally.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗