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USGS2020

Aseismic transient slip on the Gofar transform fault, East Pacific Rise

Oceanic transform faults display a unique combination of seismic and aseismic slip behavior, including a large globally averaged seismic deficit, and the local occurrence of repeating magnitude (M) ∼ 6 "> ∼ 6 ∼6 earthquakes with abundant foreshocks and seismic swarms, as on the Gofar transform of the East Pacific Rise and the Blanco Ridge in the northeast Pacific Ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms that govern the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip and their interaction remain unclear. Here we present a numerical modeling study of earthquake sequences and aseismic transient slip on oceanic transform faults. In the model, strong dilatancy strengthening, supported by seismic imaging that indicates enhanced fluid-filled porosity and possible hydrothermal circulation down to the brittle–ductile transition, effectively stabilizes along-strike seismic rupture propagation and results in rupture barriers where aseismic transients arise episodically. The modeled slow slip migrates along the barrier zones at speeds ∼10 to 600 m/h, spatiotemporally correlated with the observed migration of seismic swarms on the Gofar transform. Our model thus suggests the possible prevalence of episodic aseismic transients in M ∼ 6 "> ∼ 6 ∼6 rupture barrier zones that host active swarms on oceanic transform faults and provides candidates for future seafloor geodesy experiments to verify the relation between aseismic fault slip, earthquake swarms, and fault zone hydromechanical properties.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2021

Simulation of water-table and freshwater/saltwater interface response to climate-change-driven sea-level rise and changes in recharge at Fire Island National Seashore, New York

The fresh groundwater system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York is one of the natural resources that is most vulnerable to climate change; the various federally listed threatened or endangered species that live on Fire Island, including the piping plover, roseate tern shorebird, and seabeach amaranth may be affected by changes in the groundwater system. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model to simulate climate-change-related changes in depth to the water table and depth to freshwater/saltwater interfaces on Fire Island. An existing SEAWAT three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was converted to a MODFLOW–NWT three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model with the Seawater Intrusion (SWI2) package and recalibrated using the UCODE_2005 automatic calibration software. The simulated groundwater divide was found to be skewed strongly toward the ocean shore in response to the modeled wave setup and tidal pumping overheight. Effects of climate change include sea-level rise and changes in groundwater recharge rates. Sea-level rise scenarios included specified uniform steady states at 0.2-, 0.4-, and 0.6-meter increases above the 2015 level, applied to the existing topography. A high-recharge scenario was created by increasing 2015 recharge rates by 10 percent. Under all scenarios except the low-recharge scenario, the depth to the water table and the thickness of the unsaturated zone decreased. The thickness of the freshwater lens decreased under every scenario. Resulting maps were generated on a 25-meter grid and indicate changes in areas where natural resources may be vulnerable because of projected climate changes.

New York↗

USGS2007

Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction

Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that explain how changes in deepwater subduction in the North Atlantic can cause large and synchronous variations of oxygen minimum zones, throughout the Northern Hemisphere of the Indian and Pacific oceans, consistent with the paleoclimate records. Cold periods in the North Atlantic are associated with reduced nutrient delivery to the upper Indo-Pacific oceans, thereby decreasing productivity. Reduced export production diminishes subsurface respiration of organic matter leading to higher oxygen concentrations and less denitrification. This effect of reduced oxygen consumption dominates at low latitudes. At high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific, increased mixed layer depths and steepening of isopycnals improve ocean ventilation and oxygen supply to the subsurface. Atmospheric teleconnections through changes in wind-driven ocean circulation modify this basin-scale pattern regionally. These results suggest that changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation, similar to those projected by climate models to possibly occur in the centuries to come because of anthropogenic climate warming, can have large effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles even in remote areas. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Paleoceanography↗

USGS2000

Re-Os isotopic systematics of primitive lavas from the Lassen region of the Cascade arc, California

Rhenium-osmium isotopic systematics of primitive calc-alkaline lavas from the Lassen region appear to be controlled by mantle wedge processes. Lavas with a large proportion of slab component have relatively low Re and Os abundances, and have radiogenic Os and mid ocean ridge basalt-like Sr and Pb isotopic compositions. Lavas with a small proportion of slab component have higher Re and Os elemental abundances and display mantle-like Os, Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions. Assimilation with fractional crystallization can only generate the Re-Os systematics of the Lassen lavas from a common parent if the distribution coefficient for Re in sulfide is ~40-1100 times higher than most published estimates and if most incompatible element abundances decrease during differentiation. High Re/Os ratios in mid ocean ridge basalts makes subducted oceanic crust a potential source of radiogenic Os in volcanic arcs. The slab beneath the southernmost Cascades is estimated to have 187Os/188Os ratios as high as 1.4. Mixing between a slab component and mantle wedge peridotite can generate the Os isotopic systematics of the Lassen lavas provided the slab component has a Sr/Os ratio of ~7.5X105 and Os abundances that are 100-600 times higher than mid ocean ridge basalts. For this model to be correct, Os must be readily mobilized and concentrated in the slab component, perhaps as a result of high water and HCl fugacities in this subduction environment. Another possible mechanism to account for the correlation between the magnitude of the subduction geochemical signature and Os isotopic composition involves increasing the stability of an Os-bearing phase in mantle wedge peridotites as a result of fluxing with the slab component. Melting of such a source could yield low Os magmas that are more susceptible to crustal contamination, and hence have more radiogenic Os isotopic compositions, than magmas derived from sources with a smaller contribution from the slab. Thus, the addition of the slab component to the mantle wedge appears to result in either the direct or indirect addition of radiogenic Os to arc magmas. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2004

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2017

Development of a coupled wave-flow-vegetation interaction model

Emergent and submerged vegetation can significantly affect coastal hydrodynamics. However, most deterministic numerical models do not take into account their influence on currents, waves, and turbulence. In this paper, we describe the implementation of a wave-flow-vegetation module into a Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system that includes a flow model (ROMS) and a wave model (SWAN), and illustrate various interacting processes using an idealized shallow basin application. The flow model has been modified to include plant posture-dependent three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and production of turbulent kinetic energy and enstrophy to parameterize vertical mixing. The coupling framework has been updated to exchange vegetation-related variables between the flow model and the wave model to account for wave energy dissipation due to vegetation. This study i) demonstrates the validity of the plant posture-dependent drag parameterization against field measurements, ii) shows that the model is capable of reproducing the mean and turbulent flow field in the presence of vegetation as compared to various laboratory experiments, iii) provides insight into the flow-vegetation interaction through an analysis of the terms in the momentum balance, iv) describes the influence of a submerged vegetation patch on tidal currents and waves separately and combined, and v) proposes future directions for research and development.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2017

Habitat suitability models for groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska

Identifying and quantifying the major ecosystem processes that regulate recruitment strength of commercially and ecologically important fish species is a central goal of fisheries management research. In the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) five groundfish species are of particular interest: sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria ), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ), walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus ), arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ), and Pacific ocean perch ( Sebastes alutus ). Habitat suitability models (HSM) were developed for the demersal early juvenile stage to inform survival to recruitment for these species, using catch data and seafloor habitat metrics with presence-only models. Regional-scale maps were produced that predict the probability of suitable habitat available in the GOA from settlement through residency in nursery areas. For example, the HSM for sablefish (150–399 mm) described suitable habitat as bathymetrically low-lying areas with low rocky structure within 25–300 m depth. In contrast, the HSM for Pacific ocean perch (50–200 mm) described suitable habitat as bathymetry rises with rocky structure present on north-south facing slopes within 85–270 m depth. These habitat covariates are useful to refine population estimates for North Pacific groundfish species and to inform life stage-specific definitions of Essential Fish Habitat. This application of MaxEnt models should be applicable for species with low occurrence of spatial data in other marine ecosystems globally.

Alaska↗

USGS1982

Heat-flow measurements at shot points along the 1978 Saudi Arabia seismic deep-refraction line; Part II, Discussion and interpretation

The heat-flow profile across the Arabian Shield from Ar Riyad to Ad Darb and across the Red Sea is examined for compatibility with the lithospheric structure of the area as deduced from geologic and other geophysical data. Broad continental uplift associated with Red Sea rifting is symmetric about the Red Sea axis, and geologic and geochronologic evidence indicate that uplift has occurred mainly in the interval 25-13 Ma (mega-annum) ago. Thermal-profile changes in the upper mantle resulting from an influx of hot material associated with rifting yield the correct order of magnitude of uplift, and this mechanism is suggested as the explanation for the regional doming. A lithospheric section, constructed from seismic refraction, gravity, and regional geologic data, provides the framework for construction of thermal models. Thermal gradient measurements were made in drill holes at five shot points. Geotherms for the Shield, which assume a radiogenic heat-source distribution that decreases exponentially with depth, yield temperatures of about 450?C at a depth of 40 km (base of the crust) for shot points 2 (Sabhah) and 3. The geotherm for shot point 4 (near Bishah) yields a distinctly higher temperature (about 580?C) for the same depth. Static models used to model the heat flow in the oceanic crust of the Red Sea shelf and coastal plain either yield too small a heat flow to match the observed heat flow or give lithosphere thicknesses that are so thin as to be improbable. Dynamic (solid-state accretion) models, which account for mantle flow at the base of the lithosphere, adequately match the observed heat-flow values. In the deep-water trough of the Red Sea, which is presently undergoing active sea-floor spreading, classical models of heat flow for a moving slab with accretion at the spreading center are adequate to explain the average heat-flow level. At shot point 5 (Ad Darb), the anomalous heat flow of 2 HFU (heat-flow units) can be explained in terms of a Shield component (0.8-1.0 HFU) and a component related to heating by the abutting oceanic crust a few kilometers away for periods exceeding 10 Ma. Analytical results are included for: 1) the cooling of a static sheet with an initial temperature distribution characteristic of a moving slab in a sea-floor spreading environment, and 2) the heating of a homogeneous quarter-space at its vertical boundary.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1961

Palæomagnetic evidence relevant to a change in the Earth's radius

IT is important to note that if, during an expansion of the Earth, each point on the surface were to move radially outward, then all sampling areas would have the same relative geographical co-ordinates before and after expansion. Palæomagnetic results could not be used to detect an expansion of this type. However, an alternative model of expansion is that in which most or all of the increase in area is reflected by an increase in the area of the ocean basins. We considered Prof. Carey's model of Earth expansion to be of this general type, since he concludes 1 that the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean basins formed by dilatation attendant on expansion. If the ocean basins formed in this way, the method we used would show an increase in the Earth's radius, even if the continents had also grown a lesser amount.

Nature↗

USGS2018

Icebergs in the Nordic Seas throughout the Late Pliocene

The Arctic cryosphere is changing and making a significant contribution to sea level rise. The Late Pliocene had similar CO2 levels to the present and a warming comparable to model predictions for the end of this century. However, the state of the Arctic cryosphere during the Pliocene remains poorly constrained. For the first time we combine outputs from a climate model with a thermodynamic iceberg model to simulate likely source regions for ice‐rafted debris (IRD) found in the Nordic Seas from Marine Isotope Stage M2 to the mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period and what this implies about the nature of the Arctic cryosphere at this time. We compare the fraction of melt given by the model scenarios with IRD data from four Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Nordic Seas. Sites 911A, 909C, and 907A show a persistent occurrence of IRD that model results suggest is consistent with permanent ice on Svalbard. Our results indicate that icebergs sourced from the east coast of Greenland do not reach the Nordic Seas sites during the warm Late Pliocene but instead travel south into the North Atlantic. In conclusion, we suggest a continuous occurrence of marine‐terminating glaciers on Svalbard and on East Greenland (due to the elevation of the East Greenland Mountains during the Late Pliocene). The study has highlighted the usefulness of coupled climate model‐iceberg trajectory modeling for understanding ice sheet behavior when proximal geological records for Pliocene ice presence or absence are absent or are inconclusive.

Paleoceanography↗

USGS2017

Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

A linked modeling approach has been undertaken to understand the impacts of climate and infrastructure on aquatic ecology and water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region. The Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite is used in this effort for its 3D hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and sediment dynamics, phytoplankton and water-quality coupling infrastructure, and linkage to a habitat suitability model. The hydrodynamic model component of the suite is D-Flow FM, a new 3D unstructured finite-volume model based on the Delft3D model. In this paper, D-Flow FM is applied to the San Francisco Bay-Delta to investigate tidal, seasonal and annual dynamics of water levels, river flows and salinity under historical environmental and infrastructural conditions. The model is driven by historical winds, tides, ocean salinity, and river flows, and includes federal, state, and local freshwater withdrawals, and regional gate and barrier operations. The model is calibrated over a 9-month period, and subsequently validated for water levels, flows, and 3D salinity dynamics over a 2 year period. Model performance was quantified using several model assessment metrics and visualized through target diagrams. These metrics indicate that the model accurately estimated water levels, flows, and salinity over wide-ranging tidal and fluvial conditions, and the model can be used to investigate detailed circulation and salinity patterns throughout the Bay-Delta. The hydrodynamics produced through this effort will be used to drive affiliated sediment, phytoplankton, and contaminant hindcast efforts and habitat suitability assessments for fish and bivalves. The modeling framework applied here will serve as a baseline to ultimately shed light on potential ecosystem change over the current century.

California↗

USGS2024

A phylogeographical study of the discontinuously distributed Harlequin Duck (Histrionicus histrionicus)

Species distributions are often indicative of historical biogeographical events and contemporary spatial biodiversity patterns. The Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus is a sea duck of conservation concern that has a disjunct distribution, with discrete portions of its range associated with northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Movement data indicate migratory connectivity within regions of each ocean basin but not cross-continent dispersal, suggesting that genetic structuring could exist at multiple spatial scales. Little is known regarding the impacts of past vicariance events on the species phylogeographical structure and historical demography, or rates of gene flow at different spatial scales. We used data from microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to quantify levels of genetic diversity within, and the extent of spatial genetic differentiation among locations sampled at multiple spatial scales across the species range. Samples were collected at nonbreeding locations, which represent groupings appropriate for characterizing genetically differentiated subgroups at regional and continental scales. Collectively, genetic data and coalescence modelling suggested that individuals colonized regions currently occupied within both ocean basins in the Holocene from a single refuge in the Atlantic. Further, it seems likely there was secondary contact with lineages derived from populations in Asia, based on the shallow species-wide mtDNA phylogeny and high incidence of recently derived private mtDNA haplotypes. Estimates of inter-location variance in microsatellite allele and mtDNA haplotype frequency were moderate and significant between western (Pacific – North America) and eastern (Atlantic – North America, Greenland and Iceland) ocean basins and among sampling groups within each ocean basin. Genetic differentiation among sampling groups was particularly evident at the species distributional margins in the Atlantic (Iceland) and the Pacific (Shemya Island) Ocean basins. Coalescent modelling results suggest that contemporary spatial genetic patterns in the species arose through the combined influences of secondary contact, shared ancestry and gene flow after the last glacial maxima.

Ibis↗

USGS2020

Evaluation of a roughness length parametrization accounting for wind–wave alignment in a coupled atmosphere–wave model

The importance of wind energy as an alternative energy source has increased over the latest years with more focus on offshore winds. A good estimation of the offshore winds is thus of major importance for this industry. Up to now the effect of the wind–wave (mis)alignment has not yet been taken into account in coupled atmosphere–wave models to study the vertical wind profile and power production estimations of offshore wind farms. In this study the roughness length parametrization of Drennan et al . in 2003, and its extension addressing the wind–wave (mis)alignment proposed by Porchetta et al . in 2019, are investigated in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. This study shows that the yearly mean wind estimation at hub height (100 m) is improved by the roughness length parametrization of Porchetta et al . compared to Drennan. This is mainly due to the increased roughness of the former parametrization compare to the latter, even in aligned wind–wave conditions. This difference in roughness is caused by the dataset used to obtain the constants, deep‐water conditions versus mixed offshore conditions. Moreover, the roughness length parametrization of Porchetta et al . performs better in two of three alignment categories. Furthermore, similar model performances are obtained if we exclude the wind directions from the wind shadow zone of the measurement mast or the wind directions from the recently built Alpha Ventus wind farm, which is in close vicinity of the measurement mast. Investigating different wind conditions shows that the new roughness length parametrization of Porchetta et al . performs best for both offshore and onshore winds. Additionally, we show that the coupled model estimations of the vertical wind are only slightly affected by significant wave height estimations. Similar model performances for different accuracies of significant wave height estimations are presented. One exception is the perpendicular alignment category where the new roughness length of Porchetta et al . outperforms the roughness length of Drennan when investigating the wind estimations related to significant wave heights with a higher accuracy. The roughness length parametrization of Porchetta et al . reduced the power production overestimation of the coupled model from 5.7 to 2.8%. We also show that the standalone atmospheric model including the roughness length of Charnock in 1955 has a degraded performance compared to the coupled model including the roughness length parametrization of Porchetta et al . for yearly average wind profiles.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Soci↗

USGS2022

Modeling geomagnetic induction in submarine cables

Submarine cables have become a vital component of modern infrastructure, but past submarine cable natural hazard studies have mostly focused on potential cable damage from landslides and tsunamis. A handful of studies examine the possibility of space weather effects in submarine cables. The main purpose of this study is to develop a computational model, using Python , of geomagnetic induction on submarine cables. The model is used to estimate the induced voltage in the submarine cables in response to geomagnetic disturbances. It also utilizes newly acquired knowledge from magnetotelluric studies and associated investigations of geomagnetically induced currents in power systems. We describe the Python-based software, its working principle, inputs/outputs based on synthetic geomagnetic field data, and compare its operational capabilities against analytical solutions. We present the results for different model inputs, and find: 1) the seawater layer acts as a shield in the induction process: the greater the ocean depth, the smaller the seafloor geoelectric field; and 2) the model is sensitive to the Ocean-Earth layered conductivity structure.

Frontiers in Physics↗

USGS2017

Modeling fine-scale coral larval dispersal and interisland connectivity to help designate mutually-supporting coral reef marine protected areas: Insights from Maui Nui, Hawaii

Connectivity among individual marine protected areas (MPAs) is one of the most important considerations in the design of integrated MPA networks. To provide such information for managers in Hawaii, USA, a numerical circulation model was developed to determine the role of ocean currents in transporting coral larvae from natal reefs throughout the high volcanic islands of the Maui Nui island complex in the southeastern Hawaiian Archipelago. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind, wave, and circulation model outputs were used to drive a km-scale, 3-dimensional, physics-based circulation model for Maui Nui. The model was calibrated and validated using satellite-tracked ocean surface current drifters deployed during coral-spawning conditions, then used to simulate the movement of the larvae of the dominant reef-building coral, Porites compressa , from 17 reefs during eight spawning events in 2010–2013. These simulations make it possible to investigate not only the general dispersal patterns from individual coral reefs, but also how anomalous conditions during individual spawning events can result in large deviations from those general patterns. These data also help identify those reefs that are dominated by self-seeding and those where self-seeding is limited to determine their relative susceptibility to stressors and potential roadblocks to recovery. Overall, the numerical model results indicate that many of the coral reefs in Maui Nui seed reefs on adjacent islands, demonstrating the interconnected nature of the coral reefs in Maui Nui and providing a key component of the scientific underpinning essential for the design of a mutually supportive network of MPAs to enhance conservation of coral reefs.

Hawaii↗

USGS2004

Using discrete choice modeling to generate resource selection functions for female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We explored the use of discrete choice models to describe habitat selection by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Using stepwise procedures we generated resource selection models of habitat use. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of total ice concentration, ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Distance to the nearest ice interface was a significant term in models for three seasons. Water depth was selected as a significant term in all seasons, possibly reflecting higher productivity in shallow water areas. Preliminary tests indicate seasonal models can predict polar bear distribution based on prior sea ice data.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Water-table and potentiometric-surface altitudes in the upper glacial, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers of Long Island, New York, April–May 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State and local agencies, systematically collects groundwater data at varying measurement frequencies to monitor the hydrologic conditions on Long Island, New York. Each year during April and May, the U.S. Geological Survey completes a synoptic survey of water levels to define the spatial distribution of the water table and potentiometric surfaces within the three main water-bearing units underlying Long Island—the upper glacial, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers—and the hydraulically connected Jameco and North Shore aquifers. These data and the maps constructed from them are commonly used in studies of the hydrology of Long Island and are used by water managers and suppliers for aquifer management and planning purposes. Water-level measurements made in 424 monitoring wells (observation and supply wells), 13 streamgages, and 2 lake gages across Long Island during April–May 2016 were used to prepare the maps in this report. Groundwater measurements were made by the wetted-tape or electric-tape method to the nearest hundredth of a foot. Contours of water-table and potentiometric-surface altitudes were created using the groundwater measurements. The water-table contours were interpreted using water-level data collected from 275 observation wells and 1 supply well screened in the upper glacial aquifer and the shallow Magothy aquifer and 13 streamgages and 2 lake gages. The potentiometric-surface contours of the Magothy aquifer were interpreted from measurements at 88 wells (61 observation wells and 27 supply wells) screened in the middle to deep Magothy aquifer and the contiguous and hydraulically connected Jameco aquifer. The potentiometric-surface contours of the Lloyd aquifer were interpreted from measurements at 60 wells (55 observation wells and 5 supply wells) screened in the Lloyd aquifer and the contiguous and hydraulically connected North Shore aquifer. Many of the supply wells are in continuous operation and, therefore, were turned off for a minimum of 24 hours before measurements were made to allow the water levels in the wells to recover to ambient (nonpumping) conditions. Full recovery time at some of these supply wells can exceed 24 hours; therefore, water levels measured at these wells are assumed to be less accurate than those measured at observation wells, which are not pumped. In addition to pumping stresses, density differences (saline water) also lower the water levels measured in certain wells. Recent water-quality data are lacking in these wells; therefore, a conversion to freshwater head could not be performed accurately and was not attempted. In this report, all water-level altitudes are referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29). The land surface altitude, or topography, was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The data were collected using light detection and ranging (lidar) and were used to produce a three-dimensional digital elevation model. The lidar data have a horizontal accuracy of 1.38 feet and a vertical accuracy of 0.40 foot at a 95-percent confidence level for the “open terrain” land-cover category. The digital elevation model was developed jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. Land surface altitude is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). On Long Island, NAVD 88 is approximately 1 foot higher than NGVD 29. Hydrographs are included on these maps for selected wells that have continuous digital recording equipment, and each hydrograph includes the water level measured during the synoptic survey. These hydrographs are representative of the 2016 water year and show the changes throughout that period; a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 to September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends.

New York↗