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USGS2023

Data-limited fishery assessment methods shed light on the exploitation history and population dynamics of Endangered Species Act-listed Yelloweye Rockfish in Puget Sound, Washington

Objective The distinct population segment (DPS) of Yelloweye Rockfish Sebastes ruberrimus inhabiting the Puget Sound/Georgia Basin was listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2010, and a formal recovery plan for the DPS was published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries in 2017. In this recovery plan, the biological criteria for delisting or downlisting were specified as certain levels of spawning potential ratio (SPR), a commonly used metric of equilibrium stock status for commercially exploited fishes. Although this metric can be estimated from length compositions, the combination of length data with a catch history (which was not previously available for this DPS) improves our understanding of population dynamics over time and allows us to estimate a different measure of stock status, relative (to unfished) spawning stock biomass (SSB), rather than only SPR. Methods To estimate relative SSB and reconstruct the historical dynamics of this DPS, we reconstructed the catch history from fisheries records, collated length data from historical and contemporary hook-and-line surveys, and fitted a data-limited version of a statistical catch-at-age model. Result Despite a high level of uncertainty, we estimated that Yelloweye Rockfish in Puget Sound are above 25% of unfished biomass (a reference point detailed in the recovery criteria) under the assumption of deterministic recruitment, presenting the first direct estimates of Yelloweye Rockfish population status in Puget Sound. Conclusion However, as informed by recent genetic studies, the DPS boundaries of ESA-listed Yelloweye Rockfish extend from South Puget Sound to Queen Charlotte Strait in British Columbia. The Canadian portion of this population is managed separately and is currently estimated to be at 32% of unfished biomass (95% quantiles = 15%–68%). Thus, the disjunction between the biological boundaries of the population and the jurisdictional boundaries between Canada and the United States presents an additional source of uncertainty in assessing recovery that must be addressed to achieve DPS-wide recovery goals.

Washington↗

USGS2013

Spatial extent and dynamics of dam impacts on tropical island freshwater fish assemblages

Habitat connectivity is vital to the persistence of migratory fishes. Native tropical island stream fish assemblages composed of diadromous species require intact corridors between ocean and riverine habitats. High dams block fish migration, but low-head artificial barriers are more widespread and are rarely assessed for impacts. Among all 46 drainages in Puerto Rico, we identified and surveyed 335 artificial barriers that hinder fish migration to 74.5% of the upstream habitat. We also surveyed occupancy of native diadromous fishes (Anguillidae, Eleotridae, Gobiidae, and Mugilidae) in 118 river reaches. Occupancy models demonstrated that barriers 2 meters (m) high restricted nongoby fish migration and extirpated those fish upstream of 4-m barriers. Gobies are adapted to climbing and are restricted by 12-m barriers and extirpated upstream of 32-m barriers. Our findings quantitatively illustrate the extensive impact of low-head structures on island stream fauna and provide guidance for natural resource management, habitat restoration, and water development strategies.

BioScience↗

USGS2018

Effects of sea lamprey substrate modification and carcass nutrients on macroinvertebrate assemblages in a small Atlantic coastal stream

Aquatic macroinvertebrates respond to patch dynamics arising from interactions of physical and chemical disturbances across space and time. Anadromous fish, such as sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus , migrate from the ocean and alter physical and chemical properties of recipient spawning streams. Sea lamprey disturb stream benthos physically through nest construction and spawning, and enrich food webs through nutrient deposition from decomposing carcasses. Sea lamprey spawning nests support greater macroinvertebrate abundance than adjacent reference areas, but concurrent effects of stream bed modification and nutrient supplementation have not been examined sequentially. We added carcasses and cleared substrate experimentally to mimic the physical disturbance and nutrient enrichment associated with lamprey spawning, and characterized effects on macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. We found that areas receiving cleared substrate and carcass nutrients were colonized largely by Simuliidae compared to upstream and downstream control areas that were colonized largely by Hydropsychidae, Philopotamidae, and Chironomidae. Environmental factors such as stream flow likely shape assemblages by physically constraining macroinvertebrate establishment and feeding. Our results indicate potential changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages from the physical and chemical changes to streams brought by spawning populations of sea lamprey.

Maine↗

USGS2026

Laboratory measurements of rise velocity for individual, hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles in water

Tracking methane transport becomes more complicated in the deep ocean where seafloor release of methane gas bubbles occurs at the high pressures and low temperatures conducive to hydrate formation on bubble surfaces. Gas hydrate formation can make the bubble surface rigid, preventing the dynamic interplay between bubble size, shape and rise velocity that gas-transport models commonly rely upon when using bubble size to predict bubble rise velocity. To better constrain gas-transport model predictions, we conducted controlled laboratory measurements of rise velocity, u z , for hydrate-free air, methane, and xenon bubbles and hydrate-coated xenon bubbles. Experimental results for u z were compared to predicted u z values from several published parameterizations used to study dissolution of gas bubbles rising in the ocean. For both hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles, the McGinnis et al. (2006) parameterization provides the most accurate u z predictions.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2022

Sea-level rise and warming mediate coastal groundwater discharge in the Arctic

Groundwater discharge is an important mechanism through which fresh water and associated solutes are delivered to the ocean. Permafrost environments have traditionally been considered hydrogeologically inactive, yet with accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw, groundwater flow paths are activating and opening subsurface connections to the coastal zone. While warming has the potential to increase land-sea connectivity, sea-level change has the potential to alter land-sea hydraulic gradients and enhance coastal permafrost thaw, resulting in a complex interplay that will govern future groundwater discharge dynamics along Arctic coastlines. Here, we use a recently developed permafrost hydrological model that simulates variable-density groundwater flow and salinity-dependent freeze-thaw to investigate the impacts of sea-level change and land and ocean warming on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and salinity of coastal groundwater discharge. Results project both an increase and decrease in discharge with climate change depending on the rate of warming and sea-level change. Under high warming and low sea-level rise scenarios, results show up to a 58% increase in coastal groundwater discharge by 2100 due to the formation of a supra-permafrost aquifer that enhances freshwater delivery to the coastal zone. With higher rates of sea-level rise, the increase in discharge due to warming is reduced to 21% as sea-level rise decreased land-sea hydraulic gradients. Under lower warming scenarios for which supra-permafrost groundwater flow was not established, discharge decreased by up to 26% between 1980 and 2100 for high sea-level rise scenarios and increased only 8% under low sea-level rise scenarios. Thus, regions with higher warming rates and lower rates of sea-level change (e.g. northern Nunavut, Canada) will experience a greater increase in discharge than regions with lower warming rates and higher rates of sea-level change. The magnitude, location and salinity of discharge have important implications for ecosystem function, water quality, and carbon dynamics in coastal zones.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Two major Cenozoic episodes of phosphogenesis recorded in equatorial Pacific seamount deposits

Seamount phosphorites have been recognized since the 1950s, but this is the first study to provide an in depth exploration of the origin and history of these widespread deposits. Representative samples from equatorial Pacific Cretaceous seamounts were analyzed for chemical, mineralogical, and stable isotope compositions. The phosphorites occur in a wide variety of forms, but most commonly carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) replaced middle Eocene and older carbonate sediment in a deep water environment (>1000 m). Element ratios distinguish seamount phosphorites from continental margin, plateau, and insular phosphorites. Uranium and thorium contents are low and total rare earth element (REE) contents are generally high. REE ratios and shale-normalized patterns demonstrate that the REEs and host CFA were derived from seawater. Strontium isotopic compositions compared with inferred Cenozoic seawater curves define two major episodes of Cenozoic phosphatization: Late Eocene/early Oligocene (39–34 Ma) and late Oligocene/early Miocene (27–21 Ma); three minor events are also indicated. The major episodes occurred at times of climate transition, the first from a nonglacial to glacial earth and the second from a predominantly glacial to warm earth. The paleoceanographic conditions that existed at those times initiated and sustained development of phosphorite by accumulation of dissolved phosphorus in the deep sea during relatively stable climatic conditions when oceanic circulation was sluggish. Fluctuations in climate, sealevel, and upwelling that accompanied the climate transitions may have driven cycles of enrichment and depletion of the deep-sea phosphorus reservoir. As temperature gradients in the oceans increased, Antarctic glaciation expanded and oceanic circulation and upwelling intensified. Expansion and intensification of the oxygen minimum zone may have increased the capacity for midwater storage of phosphorus supplied by dynamic upwelling around seamounts; however, the bottom waters never became anoxic during the phosphogenic episodes. Fluctuations in the CCD and lysocline, CO 2 fluxes, and changes in bottom water circulation and temperatures may have bathed the seamount carbonates in more corrosive waters which, coupled with increased supplies of dissolved phosphorus, promoted replacement processes. The late Eocene/early Oligocene phosphogenic episode recorded in seamount deposits is not matched by large phosphorite deposits in the geologic record, whereas the late Oligocene/early Miocene episode and middle Miocene event are matched by large deposits distributed globally. The seamount phosphorites are exposed at the surface of the seamounts and have been for most of the Neogene and Oligocene. The phosphorites do not show signs of etching that would indicate substantial undersaturation of seawater phosphate with respect to CFA. Mass balance calculations indicate that about 5.4–19 × 10 12 g of P 2 O 5 are locked up in equatorial Pacific seamount phosphorites. That amount is equivalent to about 2-7 years of the present annual input from rivers.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2008

Documentation of the U.S. Geological Survey Oceanographic time-series measurement database

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Oceanographic Time-Series Measurement Database contains oceanographic observations made as part of studies designed to increase understanding of sediment transport processes and associated dynamics. Analysis of these data has contributed to more accurate prediction of the movement and fate of sediments and other suspended materials in the coastal ocean. The measurements were collected primarily by investigators at the USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center (WHCMSC) and colleagues, beginning in 1975. Most of the field experiments were carried out on the U.S. continental shelf and slope. This report describes the instrumentation and platforms used to make the measurements; the methods used to process, apply quality-control criteria, and archive the data; the data storage format, and how the data are released and distributed. The report also includes instructions on how to access the data from the online database at http://stellwagen.er.usgs.gov/ . As of 2016, the database contains about 5,000 files, which may include observations of current velocity, wave statistics, ocean temperature, conductivity, pressure, and light transmission at one or more depths over some duration of time.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Coastal effects

The Coasts chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment, published in 2014, focused on coastal lifelines at risk, economic disruption, uneven social vulnerability, and vulnerable ecosystems. This Coastal Effects chapter of the Fourth National Climate Assessment updates those themes, with a focus on integrating the socioeconomic and environmental impacts and consequences of a changing climate. Specifically, the chapter builds on the threat of rising sea levels exacerbating tidal and storm surge flooding, the state of coastal ecosystems, and the treatment of social vulnerability by introducing the implications for social equity. U.S. coasts are dynamic environments and economically vibrant places to live and work. As of 2013, coastal shoreline counties were home to 133.2 million people, or 42% of the population. The coasts are economic engines that support jobs in defense, fishing, transportation, and tourism industries; contribute substantially to the U.S. gross domestic product; and serve as hubs of commerce, with seaports connecting the country with global trading partners. Coasts are home to diverse ecosystems such as beaches, intertidal zones, reefs, seagrasses, salt marshes, estuaries, and deltas that support a range of important services including fisheries, recreation, and coastal storm protection. U.S. coasts span three oceans, as well as the Gulf of Mexico, the Great Lakes, and Pacific and Caribbean islands. The social, economic, and environmental systems along the coasts are being affected by climate change. Threats from sea level rise (SLR) are exacerbated by dynamic processes such as high tide and storm surge flooding (Ch. 19: Southeast, KM 2) , erosion (Ch. 26: Alaska, KM 2) , waves and their effects, saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers and elevated groundwater tables (Ch. 27: Hawaiʻi & Pacific Islands, KM 1; Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , local rainfall (Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , river runoff (Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , increasing water and surface air temperatures (Ch. 9: Oceans, KM 3) , and ocean acidification (see Ch. 2: Climate, KM 3 and Ch. 9: Oceans, KM 1, 2, and 3 for more information on ocean acidification, hypoxia, and ocean warming) . Although storms, floods, and erosion have always been hazards, in combination with rising sea levels they now threaten approximately $1 trillion in national wealth held in coastal real estate and the continued viability of coastal communities that depend on coastal water, land, and other resources for economic health and cultural integrity (Ch. 15: Tribes, KM 1 and 2) .

Report↗

USGS1991

Monitoring grasshopper and locust habitats in Sahelian Africa using GIS and remote sensing technology

Development programmes in Sahelian Africa are beginning to use geographic information system (GIS) technology. One of the GIS and remote sensing programmes introduced to the region in the late 1980s was the use of seasonal vegetation maps made from satellite data to support grasshopper and locust control. Following serious outbreaks of these pests in 1987, the programme addressed a critical need, by national and international crop protection organizations, to monitor site-specific dynamic vegetation conditions associated with grasshopper and locust breeding. The primary products used in assessing vegetation conditions were vegetation index (greenness) image maps derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite imagery. Vegetation index data were integrated in a GIS with digital cartographic data of individual Sahelian countries. These near-real-time image maps were used regularly in 10 countries for locating potential grasshopper and locust habitats. The programme to monitor vegetation conditions is currently being institutionalized in the Sahel.

International Journal of Geographical Information ↗

USGS2017

Drivers and environmental responses to the changing annual snow cycle of northern Alaska

On the North Slope of Alaska, earlier spring snowmelt and later onset of autumn snow accumulation are tied to atmospheric dynamics and sea ice conditions, and result in environmental responses. Linkages between atmospheric, ecological and biogeochemical variables in the changing Arctic are analyzed using long-term measurements near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Two key variables are the date when snow disappears in spring, as determined primarily by atmospheric dynamics, precipitation, air temperature, winter snow accumulation and cloud cover, as well as the date of onset of snowpack in autumn that is additionally influenced by ocean temperature and sea ice extent. In 2015 and 2016 the snow melted early at Utqiaġvik due mainly to anomalous warmth during May of both years attributed to atmospheric circulation patterns, with 2016 having the record earliest snowmelt. These years are discussed in the context of a 115-year snowmelt record at Utqiaġvik with a trend toward earlier melting since the mid- 1970s (-2.86 days/decade, 1975-2016). At nearby Cooper Island, where a colony of seabirds, Black Guillemots, have been monitored since 1975, timing of egg laying is correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt with 2015 and 2016 being the earliest years in the 42-year record. Ice-out at a nearby freshwater lagoon is also correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt. The date when snow begins to accumulate in autumn at Utqiaġvik shows a trend towards later dates (+4.6 days/decade, 1975-2016), with 2016 the latest on record. The relationships between the lengthening snow-free season and regional phenology, soil temperatures, fluxes of gases from the tundra, and to regional sea ice conditions are discussed. Better understanding of these interactions is needed to predict the annual snow cycles in the region at seasonal to decadal scales, and to anticipate coupled environmental responses.

Alaska↗

USGS1982

Heat-flow measurements at shot points along the 1978 Saudi Arabia seismic deep-refraction line; Part II, Discussion and interpretation

The heat-flow profile across the Arabian Shield from Ar Riyad to Ad Darb and across the Red Sea is examined for compatibility with the lithospheric structure of the area as deduced from geologic and other geophysical data. Broad continental uplift associated with Red Sea rifting is symmetric about the Red Sea axis, and geologic and geochronologic evidence indicate that uplift has occurred mainly in the interval 25-13 Ma (mega-annum) ago. Thermal-profile changes in the upper mantle resulting from an influx of hot material associated with rifting yield the correct order of magnitude of uplift, and this mechanism is suggested as the explanation for the regional doming. A lithospheric section, constructed from seismic refraction, gravity, and regional geologic data, provides the framework for construction of thermal models. Thermal gradient measurements were made in drill holes at five shot points. Geotherms for the Shield, which assume a radiogenic heat-source distribution that decreases exponentially with depth, yield temperatures of about 450?C at a depth of 40 km (base of the crust) for shot points 2 (Sabhah) and 3. The geotherm for shot point 4 (near Bishah) yields a distinctly higher temperature (about 580?C) for the same depth. Static models used to model the heat flow in the oceanic crust of the Red Sea shelf and coastal plain either yield too small a heat flow to match the observed heat flow or give lithosphere thicknesses that are so thin as to be improbable. Dynamic (solid-state accretion) models, which account for mantle flow at the base of the lithosphere, adequately match the observed heat-flow values. In the deep-water trough of the Red Sea, which is presently undergoing active sea-floor spreading, classical models of heat flow for a moving slab with accretion at the spreading center are adequate to explain the average heat-flow level. At shot point 5 (Ad Darb), the anomalous heat flow of 2 HFU (heat-flow units) can be explained in terms of a Shield component (0.8-1.0 HFU) and a component related to heating by the abutting oceanic crust a few kilometers away for periods exceeding 10 Ma. Analytical results are included for: 1) the cooling of a static sheet with an initial temperature distribution characteristic of a moving slab in a sea-floor spreading environment, and 2) the heating of a homogeneous quarter-space at its vertical boundary.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Tracking baseflow supply dynamics using SWOT data from small groundwater-dominated lakes

In situ surface-water monitoring strategies are biased towards larger perennial streams and lakes and are generally not designed to track mechanisms of baseflow supply contributed by the dynamic storage of aquifers. Additionally, small (< 1 km 2 ) groundwater-influenced lakes and wetlands globally have little in situ monitoring infrastructure. We explored the utility of remotely sensed Surface Water Ocean Topography Satellite (SWOT) data, collected from 2023 onward, to characterise the seasonal and multi-year water-level trends of groundwater flow-through kettle lakes distributed across the permeable sediments of eastern Massachusetts, USA. This analysis indicated that water levels for kettle lakes with areas down to approximately 0.05 km 2 are resolvable in the study area. Our examination of 17 kettle lakes found that SWOT water-surface elevation data closely tracked groundwater levels in adjacent monitoring wells where available, including the timing of seasonal patterns (highest levels generally in late spring), although there was some variation between years and there was a substantial lag in the timing of high water levels for a lake located downgradient from a 30-m-thick vadose zone. Furthermore, SWOT-observed water-level increases in kettle lakes tracked with baseflow increases in two adjacent groundwater-dominated streams, as would be expected from increased hydraulic gradients. Unlike spectral remote sensing, SWOT data are generally not affected by cloud cover, resulting in a potential for groundwater-dominated lakes to be sentinels of dynamic storage patterns, including identification of baseflow drought lags, which are currently ill-defined hydrological processes. SWOT monitoring of groundwater-influenced surface waters shows potential for augmenting existing monitoring wells and streamgages as continuous monitors of groundwater levels and baseflow supply in permeable terrain.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Aquatic Trophic Productivity model: A decision support model for river restoration planning in the Methow River, Washington

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a dynamic food-web simulation model to provide decision support for Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) river restoration projects in the Methow River, Washington. This modeling effort was done to contribute to Reasonable and Prudent Alternative actions 56 and 57of the 2014 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion (FCRPS BO), which calls for exploration of modeling as a means to help evaluate Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed fish response to river restoration efforts. In the Methow River, these species of concern include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and UCR summer steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Additionally, the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) for the Columbia River has identified the need for modeling (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011a)—including models that incorporate food-web dynamics (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011b)—to better understand how restoration and management strategies might enhance salmon and steelhead populations. Dynamic food-web models, even relatively simple ones, can be valuable tools for exploring responses to river restoration. Although these models have rarely been applied to rivers and streams (but see Mcintire and Colby, 1978; Power and others, 1995), they are commonly used for management decisions in terrestrial and ocean ecosystems (Christensen and Pauly, 1993; Evans and others, 2013). One of the main strengths of these models is that they are rooted in the fundamental laws of thermodynamics (that is, mass balance). Moreover, these models can be easily adapted to different contexts by adding or subtracting different species from the web and by mechanistically linking the dynamics of web members to local environmental conditions, such as water temperature, stream discharge, and channel hydraulics (Power and others, 1995; Doyle, 2006). Alternative management actions can then be evaluated by changing these environmental conditions to simulate potential outcomes following restoration. In this report, we outline the structure of a stream food-web model constructed to explore how alternative river restoration strategies may affect stream fish populations. We have termed this model the “Aquatic Trophic Productivity model” (ATP). We present the model structure, followed by three case study applications of the model to segments of the Methow River watershed in northern Washington. For two case studies (middle Methow River and lower Twisp River floodplain), we ran a series of simulations to explore how food-web dynamics respond to four distinctly different, but applied, strategies in the Methow River watershed: (1) reconnection of floodplain aquatic habitats, (2) riparian vegetation planting, (3) nutrient augmentation (that is, salmon carcass addition), and (4) enhancement of habitat suitability for fish. For the third case study, we conducted simulations to explore the potential fish and food-web response to habitat improvements conducted in 2012 at the Whitefish Island Side Channel, located in the middle Methow River.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Sediment deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay, California, 1971–1990 and 1999–2020

Bathymetric change analyses document historical patterns of sediment deposition and erosion, providing valuable insight into the sediment dynamics of coastal systems, including pathways of sediment and sediment-bound contaminants. In 2014 and 2015, the Office for Coastal Management, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coastal Management, provided funding for new bathymetric surveys of large portions of San Francisco Bay. A total of 93 bathymetric surveys were conducted during this 2-year period, using a combination of interferometric sidescan and multibeam sonar systems. These data, along with recent NOAA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and private contractor surveys collected from 1999 to 2020 (hereinafter referred to as 2010s), were used to create the most comprehensive bathymetric digital elevation models (DEMs) of San Francisco Bay since the 1980s. Comparing DEMs created from these 2010s surveys with USGS DEMs created from NOAA’s 1971–1990 (hereinafter referred to as 1980s) surveys provides information on the quantities and patterns of erosion and deposition in San Francisco Bay during the 9 to 47 years between surveys. This analysis reveals that in the areas surveyed in both the 1980s and 2010s, the bay floor lost about 34 million cubic meters of sediment since the 1980s. Results from this study can be used to assess how San Francisco Bay has responded to changes in the system, such as sea-level rise and variation in sediment supply from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and local tributaries, and supports the creation of a new, system-wide sediment budget. This report provides data on the quantities and patterns of sediment volume change in San Francisco Bay for ecosystem managers that are pertinent to various sediment-related issues, including restoration of tidal marshes, exposure of legacy contaminated sediment, and strategies for the beneficial use of dredged sediment.

California↗

USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

Terrestrial carbon dynamics inﬂuence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildﬁres. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to inﬂuence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon ﬂux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil proﬁle, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic efﬂuents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2013

A Sr-Nd isotopic study of sand-sized sediment provenance and transport for the San Francisco Bay coastal system

A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects

California↗