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Delaware River Basin

During the past 25 years, industry and government have made large financial investments in manufacturing, processing, and wastewater-treatment facilities to reduce the amount of contaminants being discharged. Although these investments have led to improved water quality across the Nation, concerns about the effects of nutrients, toxins, and pathogens on human health and that of ecological communities remain. To address the need for consistent and scientifically sound information for managing the Nation's water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey began the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program in 1991. This program is unique in that it integrates surface- and ground-water-quality monitoring with the study of aquatic ecosystems. The goals of the NAWQA program are to (1) describe current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's freshwater streams and aquifers (water-bearing sediments and rocks), (2) describe how water quality is changing over time, and (3) increase our understanding of the natural and human factors that affect water quality (Leahy and others, 1990, Gilliom and others, 1995). Assessing the quality of water in every location of the Nation would not be practical. Therefore, NAWQA investigations are conducted within 59 selected areas called study units (fig. 1). These study units encompass important river and aquifer systems in the United States and represent the diverse geographic, waterresource, land-use, and water-use characteristics of the Nation. The Delaware River Basin is one of 15 study units in which work began in 1996. Water-quality sampling in the study unit will begin in 1999. This fact sheet provides a brief overview of the NAWQA program, describes the Delaware River Basin study unit, identifies the major water-quality issues in the basin, and documents the plan of study that will be followed during the study-unit investigation.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv

Distance to nearest road in the conterminous United States

The USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) program has developed a national, high resolution dataset that gives the distance to the nearest road every 30 meters across the conterminous 48 states. This work provides the first unified national picture of roadless space, vehicular accessibility, and intensity of road construction. The new dataset is the first member of the National Overview Road Metrics (NORM) family of road related indicators. This indicator measures straight-line or Euclidean distance (ED) to the nearest road, and is given the compound name NORM ED. NORM ED data can be viewed and downloaded from the transportation section of the web viewer for The National Map , http://nationalmap.usgs.gov. The full-resolution dataset for the conterminous states is made of 8.7 billion values.

Fact Sheet

Hazards, Disasters, and The National Map

Federal, State, and local response and management personnel must have current, reliable, and easily accessible geographic information and maps to prepare for, respond to, or recover from emergency situations. In life-threatening events, such as earthquakes, floods, or wildland fires, geographic information is essential for locating critical infrastructure and carrying out evacuation and rescue operations. The USGS promotes partnerships to ensure that base map data are up to date, readily available, and shareable among local, state, and National users. The National Map enables other government agencies, private industry, and the public to link and share additional data that provide even more information. These efforts with state and local governments have helped standardize the data by reducing data inconsistencies between neighboring jurisdictions and will help fill in the gaps for those places where data are lacking.

Fact Sheet

Metadata for ReVA logistic regression dataset

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program, has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, ground-water quality and vulnerability assessments. The Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program goals are to develop and demonstrate approaches to comprehensive, regional-scale assessments that effectively inform water-resources managers and decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated environmental risks. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing and exploring the use of statistical probability models to characterize the relation between ground-water quality and geographic factors in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Available water-quality data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program studies conducted in the Mid-Atlantic Region were used in association with geographic data (land cover, geology, soils, and others) to develop logistic-regression equations that use explanatory variables to predict the presence of a selected water-quality parameter exceeding specified management concentration thresholds. The resulting logistic-regression equations were transformed to determine the probability, P(X), of a water-quality parameter exceeding a specified management threshold. Additional statistical procedures modified by the U.S. Geological Survey were used to compare the observed values to model-predicted values at each sample point. In addition, procedures to evaluate the confidence of the model predictions and estimate the uncertainty of the probability value were developed and applied. The resulting logistic-regression models were applied to the Mid-Atlantic Region to predict the spatial probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding specified management thresholds. These thresholds are usually set or established by regulators or managers at national or local levels. At management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter, and 3 milligrams per liter, the probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding these levels is greater than 50 percent (.50) throughout much of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This includes extensive areas throughout central Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern Pennsylvania and the Delmarva Peninsula. In addition, extensive areas in North Carolina and Virginia also have high probabilities of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter. The mapped areas showing a high predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter correspond to areas that are mapped as cultivated land cover overlying carbonate rocks. At a management threshold of 10 milligrams per liter (corresponding to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard for nitrate in drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter), the predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding this level are low for most of the Mid-Atlantic Region except for the Delmarva Peninsula, southeastern Pennsylvania, and areas mapped as carbonate rocks in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

Open-File Report

Ground-water vulnerability to nitrate contamination at multiple thresholds in the mid-Atlantic region using spatial probability models

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program, has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, ground-water quality and vulnerability assessments. The Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program?s goals are to develop and demonstrate approaches to comprehensive, regional-scale assessments that effectively inform managers and decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated environmental risks. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing and exploring the use of statistical probability models to characterize the relation between ground-water quality and geographic factors in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Available water-quality data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program studies conducted in the Mid-Atlantic Region were used in association with geographic data (land cover, geology, soils, and others) to develop logistic-regression equations that use explanatory variables to predict the presence of a selected water-quality parameter exceeding a specified management concentration threshold. The resulting logistic-regression equations were transformed to determine the probability, P(X), of a water-quality parameter exceeding a specified management threshold. Additional statistical procedures modified by the U.S. Geological Survey were used to compare the observed values to model-predicted values at each sample point. In addition, procedures to evaluate the confidence of the model predictions and estimate the uncertainty of the probability value were developed and applied. The resulting logistic-regression models were applied to the Mid-Atlantic Region to predict the spatial probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding specified management thresholds. These thresholds are usually set or established by regulators or managers at National or local levels. At management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, the probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding these levels is greater than 50 percent (0.50) throughout much of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This includes extensive areas throughout central Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern Pennsylvania, and the Delmarva Peninsula. In addition, extensive areas in North Carolina and Virginia also have high probabilities of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter. The mapped areas showing a high predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter correspond to areas that are mapped as cultivated land cover and/or overlying carbonate rocks. At a management threshold of 10 milligrams per liter (corresponding to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard for nitrate in drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter), the predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding this level is low for most of the Mid-Atlantic Region, except for the Delmarva Peninsula, southeastern Pennsylvania, and areas mapped as carbonate rocks in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

Scientific Investigations Report

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Northeast Regional Information Sheet

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Southwest Regional Information Sheet

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Midwest Regional Information Sheet

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Southeast Regional Information Sheet

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou

The importance of adjusting for trip purpose in regional economic analyses of tourist destinations

This paper investigates the empirical importance of distinguishing visitors and their expenditures by trip purpose when estimating the tourism effects of a national park on a local economy. Accounting for trip purpose is quite important when there are two or more nearby major attractions in the same geographical area. This applies to the author's case study of Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks in the State of Wyoming, and also to other areas, such as the State of Utah's Bryce and Zion National Parks or amusement parks in the Orlando area in Florida. The authors illustrate the various types of survey questions and methods for correcting for trip purpose. In the case study, it would be quite misleading to attribute all spending by visitors to Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) in the town of Jackson, Wyoming, solely to GTNP because this would overstate employment actually attributable to the park by 3,455 jobs, or 22%. In turn, this overestimates the dependence of jobs in the Jackson economy on GTNP by 15%, incorrectly estimating it at 75% rather than the sounder figure of 60% of total jobs.

Tourism Economics

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

Journal of Land Use Science

Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture‐dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation‐wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality‐related stresses. Region‐specific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In the Western Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain and Western Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and planning for the mitigation of agricultural land use impacts on stream ecosystems should be regionally focused.

Ecological Applications

Activities of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program in the upper Snake River Basin, Idaho and western Wyoming, 1991-2001

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a full-scale National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The long-term goals of the NAWQA Program are to describe the status and trends in the water quality of a large part of the Nation's rivers and aquifers and to improve understanding of the primary natural and human factors that affect water-quality conditions. In meeting these goals, the program will produce water-quality, ecological, and geographic information that will be useful to policy makers and managers at the national, State, and local levels. A major component of the program is study-unit investigations, upon which national-level assessment activities are based. The program's 60 study-unit investigations are associated with principal river basins and aquifer systems throughout the Nation. Study units encompass areas from 1,200 to more than 65,000 mi2 (square miles) and incorporate about 60 to 70 percent of the Nation's water use and population served by public water supply. In 1991, the upper Snake River Basin was among the first 20 NAWQA study units selected for implementation. From 1991 to 1995, a high-intensity data-collection phase of the upper Snake River Basin study unit (fig. 1) was implemented and completed. Components of this phase are described in a report by Gilliom and others (1995). In 1997, a low-intensity phase of data collection began, and work continued on data analysis, report writing, and data documentation and archiving activities that began in 1996. Principal data-collection activities during the low-intensity phase will include monitoring of surface-water and ground-water quality, assessment of aquatic biological conditions, and continued compilation of environmental setting information.

Wyoming

Revised Protocols for Sampling Algal, Invertebrate, and Fish Communities as Part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Algal, invertebrate, and fish communities are characterized as part of ecological studies in the U.S. Geological Survey.s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Information from these ecological studies, together with chemical and physical data, provide an integrated assessment of water quality at local, regional, and national scales. Analysis and interpretation of water-quality data at these various geographic scales require accurate and consistent application of sampling protocols and sample-processing procedures. This report revises and unifies into a single document the algal, invertebrate, and fish community sampling protocols used in the National Water-Quality Assessment Program.

Open-File Report

Evolutionary and functional mitogenomics associated with the genetic restoration of the Florida panther

Florida panthers are endangered pumas that currently persist in reduced patches of habitat in South Florida, USA. We performed mitogenome reference-based assemblies for most parental lines of the admixed Florida panthers that resulted from the introduction of female Texas pumas into South Florida in 1995. With the addition of 2 puma mitogenomes, we characterized 174 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across 12 individuals. We defined 5 haplotypes (Pco1–Pco5), one of which (Pco1) had a geographic origin exclusive to Costa Rica and Panama and was possibly introduced into the Everglades National Park, Florida, prior to 1995. Haplotype Pco2 was native to Florida. Haplotypes Pco3 and Pco4 were exclusive to Texas, whereas haplotype Pco5 had an undetermined geographic origin. Phylogenetic inference suggests that haplotypes Pco1–Pco4 diverged ~202000 (95% HPDI = 83000–345000) years ago and that haplotypes Pco2–Pco4 diverged ~61000 (95% HPDI = 9000–127000) years ago. These results are congruent with a south-to-north continental expansion and with a recent North American colonization by pumas. Furthermore, pumas may have migrated from Texas to Florida no earlier than ~44000 (95% HPDI = 2000–98000) years ago. Synonymous mutations presented a greater mean substitution rate than other mitochondrial functional regions: nonsynonymous mutations, tRNAs, rRNAs, and control region. Similarly, all protein-coding genes were under predominant negative selection constraints. We directly and indirectly assessed the presence of potential deleterious SNPs in the ND2 and ND5 genes in Florida panthers prior to and as a consequence of the introduction of Texas pumas. Screenings for such variants are recommended in extant Florida panthers.

Journal of Heredity

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Great Plains Regional Information Sheet.

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma,