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USGS2019

Evaluation of recommended revisions to Bulletin 17B

For the past 36 years, Bulletin 17B, published by the Interagency Committee on Water Data in 1982, has guided flood-frequency analyses in the United States. During this period, much has been learned about both hydrology and statistical methods. In keeping with the tradition of periodically updating the Bulletin 17B guidelines in light of advances in our understanding and methods, the Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) was charged by the Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH) of the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI) to consider possible updates to Bulletin 17B. The purpose of this report is to consider the statistical performance of possible revisions to Bulletin 17B procedures. Of particular interest are procedures designed to accommodate more general forms of flood information. The concern is how the proposed procedures would affect the precision, accuracy and robustness of flood-frequency estimates. The investigations reported here focus on techniques for the following: incorporating information related to historical flooding that occurred outside the period of systematic streamgaging; and identification of potentially influential low floods (PILFs). The proposed changes, which mostly involve generalizing Bulletin 17B’s method-of-moments procedures by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), are relatively modest, at least in the sense that they would not affect the main features of Bulletin 17B. The proposed methods include the following: continued use of the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution; continued use of the Method-of-Moments fitting method applied to the logarithms of annual-peak-flow data; and a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test used in Bulletin 17B to identify low outliers. The new multiple Grubbs-Beck test is sensitive to multiple PILFs. The hydrological literature already provides extensive support for the theory behind the proposed changes. The remaining question is practical: How well do the proposed methods perform under typical and realistic conditions and, specifically, with difficult records occasionally encountered in practice? In order to answer these questions, the HFAWG commissioned the work reported here. The following four major sets of results are provided: Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from simulated LP3 populations; Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from non-LP3 populations that were selected to reflect likely deviations of flood series from LP3 distributions, based on the experience of HFAWG members; a direct comparison of the fitted LP3 distributions for 82 real “test sites” identified by an independent data group as both “typical” and “challenging” for flood-frequency estimation; and simulations of fitting procedures using records obtained by resampling with replacement from the longest of the 82 test-site records. Collectively, these studies provide a reasonably comprehensive, valid, and robust assessment of the properties of the Bulletin 17B methods and proposed alternatives. The experiments and analysis indicate that the flood quantile estimators, proposed as a revision of Bulletin 17B, do the following: perform generally as well as, and in some cases much better than, Bulletin 17B estimators in terms of the mean square error of flood quantiles estimates; allow for incorporation and efficient statistical treatment of broader classes of flood-frequency data and information, including historical information, binomial data and interval data; and generally confirm studies and the theoretical findings reported in the hydrological literature that would support use of updated estimation procedures that have been developed since Bulletin 17B was published.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

The Interagency Coordinating Committee on the validation of alternative methods (ICCVAM)

Many ICCVAM member agencies are developing new technologies and resources to replace the use of animals for chemical safety testing. These include new platforms such as microphysiological systems (MPS), data resources to support the development of predictive models and quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs), and web tools to facilitate data access and visualization.

Report↗

USGS1966

Water in the Humboldt River Valley near Winnemucca, Nevada

Most of the work of the interagency Humboldt River Research Project in the Winnemucca reach of the Humboldt River valley has been completed. More than a dozen State and Federal agencies and several private organizations and individuals participated in the study. The major objective of the project, which began in 1959, is to evaluate the water resources of the entire Humboldt River basin. However, because of the large size of the basin, most of the work during the first 5 years of the project was done in the Winnemucca area. The purpose of this report is to summarize briefly and simply the information regarding the water resources of the Winnemucca area-especially the quantitative aspects of the flow system-given in previous reports of the project. The Winnemucca reach of the Humboldt River valley, which is in north-central Nevada, is about 200 miles downstream from the headwaters of the Humboldt River and includes that part of the valley between the Comus and Rose Creek gaging stations. Average annual inflow to the storage area (the valley lowlands) in the Winnemucca reach in water years 1949-62 was about 250,000 acre-feet. Of this amount, about 68 percent was Humboldt River streamflow, as measured at the Comus gaging station, 23 percent was precipitation directly on the storage area, 6 percent was ground-water inflow, and about 3 percent was tributary streamflow. Average annual streamflow at the Rose Creek gaging station during the same period was about 155,000 acre-feet, or about 17,000 acre-feet less than that at the Comus gaging station. Nearly all the streamflow lost was consumed by evapotranspiration in the project area. Total average annual evapotranspiration loss during the period was about 115,000 acre-feet, or about 42 percent of the total average annual outflow. The most abundant ions in the ground and surface water in the area are commonly sodium and bicarbonate. Much of the water has a dissolved-solids content that ranges from 500 to 750 parts per million; however, locally, the dissolved-solids content of the ground water is more than 5,000 parts per million. The chemical quality of the Humboldt River, especially during periods of low flow, reflects the chemical quality of ground-water inflow from tributary areas that discharges into the river. Almost all water in the project area is moderately hard to very hard; otherwise, it is generally suitable for most uses. Increased ground-water development, the conjunctive use of ground and surface water, and increased irrigation efficiency would probably conserve much of the water presently consumed by nonbeneficial evapotranspiration. Intensive ground-water development, especially from the highly permeable medial gravel subunit, will, however, decrease the flow of the Humboldt River to the extent that some pumpage may not be offset by a corresponding decrease in natural evapotranspiration losses. Such streamflow depletions will therefore infringe upon downstream surface-water rights. The results of this study indicate that the Humboldt River and ground water in the unconsolidated deposits beneath and adjacent to the river in the Winnemucca area are closely related. Somewhat similar conditions probably exist elsewhere in the Humboldt River valley. Additional detailed studies are needed-both upstream and downstream from the Winnemucca area-to adequately define the flow system and the interrelations among the components of the system in the remainder of the valley. Before proceeding with additional detailed studies, however, a 1-year overall appraisal of the water resources of the basin should be considered. A major objective of this study would be to provide information that would help select the next subarea of the valley to be studied in detail and to decide which of the methods of study used in the Winnemucca area could be most effectively used in the future studies.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2015

Regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency at sites in North Dakota using data through 2009

Annual peak-flow frequency data from 231 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota and parts of Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with 10 or more years of unregulated peak-flow record, were used to develop regional regression equations for exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 using generalized least-squares techniques. Updated peak-flow frequency estimates for 262 streamflow-gaging stations were developed using data through 2009 and log-Pearson Type III procedures outlined by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. An average generalized skew coefficient was determined for three hydrologic zones in North Dakota. A StreamStats web application was developed to estimate basin characteristics for the regional regression equation analysis. Methods for estimating a weighted peak-flow frequency for gaged sites and ungaged sites are presented.

North Dakota↗

USGS2022

Intake efficiency field results for Federal Interagency Sedimentation Project bag samplers

The Federal Interagency Sedimentation Project (FISP) standardizes and advances sediment science among federal agencies. It is important to ensure that the FISP bag samplers perform isokinetically under all tested and approved conditions and collect samples that are representative of the stream or river cross-section. A measure of a sampler’s isokinetic behavior is its intake efficiency, which is defined as the ratio of the velocity through the nozzle entrance of the sampler to the ambient stream velocity. The intake efficiencies of all FISP bag samplers and nozzle sizes were evaluated for this report. Samples were obtained across 31 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations between July 15, 2013, and June 17, 2020, where data were collected with all four bag samplers (US D-96, D-96-A1, D-99, and DH-2), each using various 3/16-inch, 1/4-inch, or 5/16-inch diameter nozzles. Water temperature and ambient stream velocity outside the nozzle are two of several factors that are known to affect the intake efficiency of bag samplers. A regression curve was fitted to these data through LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), and a Kruskal-Wallis test was executed for the various samplers and nozzle sizes. Based on these results, there is no statistical evidence to indicate that water temperature and stream velocity have a noticeable effect on intake efficiency when the samplers are deployed under isokinetic conditions. Likewise, there is no statistical evidence to indicate that the type of bag sampler and nozzle diameter have a direct effect on intake efficiency.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1977

Shelled benthic fauna of the eastern Chukchi Sea

The purposes of this study were to identify the benthic shelled infauna and epifauna of the eastern Chukchi Sea, compile species lists and distribution maps, determine recurrent groups of species (communities), and examine the environmental parameters that may control the distribution of the faunal groups. The study was partly supported by the Bureau of Land Management through an interagency agreement with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under which a multi-year program responding to the needs of petroleum development of the Alaskan continental shelf is managed by the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program (OCSEAP) Office. The objective of this study is to provide an assessment of the biological patterns of the region as related to petroleum development. Future offshore oil leases proposed by the State of Alaska and the Federal Government require a biological data base from which impact statements can be derived. Samples used in this report were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in August 1974 from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Burton Island under the direction of Arthur Grantz. Sampling was conducted using van Veen grabs, gravity cores, dart cores, and bottom dredges. Only the van Veen grabs contained material useful for this study. At present 103 samples containing 90 species have been examined.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Maximum known stages and discharges of New York streams and their annual exceedance probabilities through September 2011

Maximum known stages and discharges at 1,400 sites on 796 streams within New York are tabulated. Stage data are reported in feet. Discharges are reported as cubic feet per second and in cubic feet per second per square mile. Drainage areas range from 0.03 to 298,800 square miles; excluding the three sites with larger drainage areas on the St. Lawrence and Niagara Rivers, which drain the Great Lakes, the maximum drainage area is 8,288 square miles (Hudson River at Albany). Most data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compilations and records, but some were provided by State, local, and other Federal agencies and by private organizations. The stage and discharge information is grouped by major drainage basins and U.S. Geological Survey site number, in downstream order. Site locations and their associated drainage area, period(s) of record, stage and discharge data, and flood-frequency statistics are compiled in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Flood frequencies were derived for 1,238 sites by using methods described in Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), Ries and Crouse (2002), and Lumia and others (2006). Curves that “envelope” maximum discharges within their range of drainage areas were developed for each of six flood-frequency hydrologic regions and for sites on Long Island, as well as for the State of New York; the New York curve was compared with a curve derived from a plot of maximum known discharges throughout the United States. Discharges represented by the national curve range from at least 2.7 to 4.9 times greater than those represented by the New York curve for drainage areas of 1.0 and 1,000 square miles. The relative magnitudes of discharge and runoff in the six hydrologic regions of New York and Long Island suggest the largest known discharges per square mile are in the southern part of western New York and the Catskill Mountain area, and the smallest are on Long Island.

New York↗

USGS2000

Isostatic gravity map of the Battle Mountain 30 x 60 minute quadrangle, north central Nevada

Gravity investigations of the Battle Mountain 30 x 60 minute quadrangle were begun as part of an interagency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Land Management to help characterize the geology, mineral resources, hydrology, and ecology of the Humboldt River Basin in north-central Nevada. The Battle Mountain quadrangle is located between 40°30' and 41°N. lat. and 116° and 117°W. long. This isostatic gravity map of the Battle Mountain quadrangle was prepared from data from about 1,180 gravity stations. Most of these data are publicly available on a CD-ROM of gravity data of Nevada (Ponce, 1997) and in a published report (Jewel and others, 1997). Data from about 780 gravity stations were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey since 1996; data from about 245 of these are unpublished (USGS, unpub. data, 1998). Data collected from the 400 gravity stations prior to 1996 are a subset of a gravity data compilation of the Winnemucca 1:250,000-scale quadrangle described in great detail by Wagini (1985) and Sikora (1991). This detailed information includes gravity meters used, dates of collection, sources, descriptions of base stations, plots of data, and a list of principal facts. A digital version of the entire data set for the Battle Mountain quadrangle is available on the World Wide Web at: http://wrgis.wr.usgs.gov/docs/gump/gump.html

Nevada↗

USGS2017

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a keytechnical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Report↗

USGS2010

A Servicewide Benthic Mapping Program for National Parks

In 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program directed the initiation of a benthic habitat mapping program in ocean and coastal parks in alignment with the NPS Ocean Park Stewardship 2007-2008 Action Plan. With 74 ocean and Great Lakes parks stretching over more than 5,000 miles of coastline across 26 States and territories, this Servicewide Benthic Mapping Program (SBMP) is essential. This program will deliver benthic habitat maps and their associated inventory reports to NPS managers in a consistent, servicewide format to support informed management and protection of 3 million acres of submerged National Park System natural and cultural resources. The NPS and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop June 3-5, 2008, in Lakewood, Colo., to discuss the goals and develop the design of the NPS SBMP with an assembly of experts (Moses and others, 2010) who identified park needs and suggested best practices for inventory and mapping of bathymetry, benthic cover, geology, geomorphology, and some water-column properties. The recommended SBMP protocols include servicewide standards (such as gap analysis, minimum accuracy, final products) as well as standards that can be adapted to fit network and park unit needs (for example, minimum mapping unit, mapping priorities). SBMP Mapping Process. The SBMP calls for a multi-step mapping process for each park, beginning with a gap assessment and data mining to determine data resources and needs. An interagency announcement of intent to acquire new data will provide opportunities to leverage partnerships. Prior to new data acquisition, all involved parties should be included in a scoping meeting held at network scale. Data collection will be followed by processing and interpretation, and finally expert review and publication. After publication, all digital materials will be archived in a common format. SBMP Classification Scheme. The SBMP will map using the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) that is being modified to include all NPS needs, such as lacustrine ecosystems and submerged cultural resources. CMECS Version III (Madden and others, 2010) includes components for water column, biotic cover, surface geology, sub-benthic, and geoform. SBMP Data Archiving. The SBMP calls for the storage of all raw data and final products in common-use data formats. The concept of 'collect once, use often' is essential to efficient use of mapping resources. Data should also be shared with other agencies and the public through various digital clearing houses, such as Geospatial One-Stop (http://gos2.geodata.gov/wps/portal/gos). To be most useful for managing submerged resources, the SBMP advocates the inventory and mapping of the five components of marine ecosystems: surface geology, biotic cover, geoform, sub-benthic, and water column. A complete benthic inventory of a park would include maps of bathymetry and the five components of CMECS. The completion of mapping for any set of components, such as bathymetry and surface geology, or a particular theme (for example, submerged aquatic vegetation) should also include a printed report.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1994

Instrumentation, methods of flood-data collection and transmission, and evaluation of streamflow-gaging network in Indiana

Floods are the number one natural disaster in the Nation, based on loss of life and property. In Indiana, several major floods have occurred during this century. Flooding can occur at any time in any geographic area in Indiana. The degree of flooding can vary from a minor inconvenience to major flooding that results in loss of life and extensive damage. In this study, the existing streamflow-gaging networks in Indiana are evaluated on the basis of meeting flood-data needs of various governmental agencies. The study area (Indiana and adjacent areas in Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio) was divided into 12 basins and 1 urban area. Each basin and the Indianapolis area were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic characteristics, flood potential, and availability and benefits of real-time data. A set of guidelines for evaluating an existing streamflow- gaging station without telemetry was developed so quantitative comparisons could be made between stations. The guidelines include station-site characteristics of drainage area, peak discharge, population of the nearby area, and needs of government agencies for planning and flood-warning management. From the analyses, determinations were made concerning modifications or additions to the networks to improve flood-data collection and transmission. These determinations were discussed at interagency meetings to ensure agreement. The study results indicate that installation of streamflow-gaging stations at 15 new sites would improve collection of flood data. Instrumenting the 15 new sites plus 26 existing streamflow-gaging stations with telemetry, preferably data-collection platforms with satellite transmitters, would improve transmission of data to users of the information.

Indiana↗

USGS2019

Monitoring five-needle pine on Bureau of Land Management lands in Wyoming summary report for 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) grows at high elevations and in subalpine communities in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains. Limber pine (Pinus flexilis) occurs in western North America across a broad elevational gradient from the Canadian Rocky Mountains into parts of New Mexico and Arizona and from southern California eastward to the few, isolated populations existing on the western boundary of the Dakotas and Nebraska (Steele 1990, Schoettle and Rochelle 2000). Both of these five-needle pine species play a variety of ecological roles and are considered key components in the their environments. Currently, whitebark pine and limber pine are being impacted by multiple ecological disturbances. White pine blister rust, caused by the introduced fungus Cronartium ribicola, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium spp.), wildfires, and drought all pose significant threats to the persistence of healthy five-needle populations. An effort was initiated in 2013 by the National Park Service and the Wyoming Bureau of Land Management (WYBLM) to evaluate and monitor the long-term health trajectory of five-needle pines on WYBLM lands within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). With guidance from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Monitoring Program protocol, and employing a rapid assessment survey technique specifically designed for this endeavor, we monitored whitebark pine trees in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017. We estimated the proportion of live, five-needle pine trees (>1.4 m tall) infected with white pine blister rust, documented blister rust infection severity by the occurrence and location of persisting and new infections, determined mortality of five-needle pine trees and described potential factors contributing to the death of trees, and assessed the multiple components of recruitment of understory five-needle pine into the reproductive population. White pine blister rust was widespread throughout WYBLM lands within the GYE. Using a combined ratio estimator we found that the proportion of live, >1.4 m tall five-needle pine trees infected with white pine blister rust was 0.156 (±0.054 SE; this estimate combines all surveyed trees). Bole cankers were 25% more prevalent than branch cankers in all five-needle pines observed. Mortality of surveyed trees on WYBLM lands was predominantly attributed to mountain pine beetle. For seedlings and saplings, a total of 4003 live, ≤1.4 m tall five-needle pines were documented. Cones or cone scars were recorded on 745 of the live trees. Of these reproducing trees, 44 were recorded with white pine blister rust infection. Long-term monitoring on five-needle pines on WYBLM lands will continue into the future.

Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Ecological assessment of streams in the Powder River Structural Basin, Wyoming and Montana, 2005-06

Energy and mineral development, particularly coalbed natural gas development, is proceeding at a rapid pace in the Powder River Structural Basin (PRB) in northeastern Wyoming. Concerns about the potential effects of development led to formation of an interagency working group of primarily Federal and State agencies to address these issues in the PRB in Wyoming and in Montana where similar types of resources exist but are largely undeveloped. Under the direction of the interagency working group, an ecological assessment of streams in the PRB was initiated to determine the current status (2005–06) and to establish a baseline for future monitoring. The ecological assessment components include assessment of stream habitat and riparian zones as well as assessments of macroinvertebrate, algal, and fish communities. All of the components were sampled at 47 sites in the PRB during 2005. A reduced set of components, consisting primarily of macroinvertebrate and fish community assessments, was sampled in 2006. Related ecological data, such as habitat and fish community data collected from selected sites in 2004, also are included in this report. The stream habitat assessment included measurement of channel features, substrate size and embeddedness, riparian vegetation, and reachwide characteristics. The width-to-depth ratio (bankfull width/bankfull depth) tended to be higher at sites on the main-stem Powder River than at sites on the main-stem Tongue River and at sites on tributary streams. The streambed substrate particle size was largest at sites on the main-stem Tongue River and smallest at sites on small tributary streams such as Squirrel Creek and Otter Creek. Total vegetative cover at the ground level, understory, and canopy layers ranged from less than 40 percent at a few sites to more than 90 percent at many of the sites. A bank-stability index indicated that sites in the Tongue River drainage were less at risk of bank failure than sites on the main-stem Powder River. Macroinvertebrate communities showed similarity at the river-drainage scale. Macroinvertebrate communities at sites with mountainous headwaters and snowmelt-driven hydrology, such as Clear Creek, Crazy Woman Creek, and Goose Creek, showed similarity with communities from the main-stem Tongue River. The data also indicated similarity among sites on the main-stem Powder River and among small tributaries of the Tongue River. Data analyses using macroinvertebrate observed/expected models and multimetric indices developed by the States of Wyoming and Montana indicated a tendency toward declining biological condition in the downstream direction along the Tongue River. Biological condition for the main-stem Powder River generally improved downstream, from below Salt Creek to near the Wyoming/Montana border, followed by a general decline downstream from the border to the confluence with the Yellowstone River. The biological condition generally was not significantly different between 2005 and 2006, although streamflow was less in 2006 because of drought. Algal communities showed similarity at the river-drainage scale with slight differences from the pattern observed in the macroinvertebrate communities. Although the algal communities from Clear Creek and Goose Creek were similar to those from the main-stem Tongue River, as was true of the macroinvertebrate communities, the algal communities from Crazy Woman Creek had more similarity to those of main-stem Powder River sites than to the Tongue River sites, contrary to the macroinvertebrates. Ordination of algal communities, as well as diatom metrics including salinity and dominant taxa, indicated substantial variation at two sites along the main stem of the Powder River. Fish communities of the PRB were most diverse in the Tongue River drainage. In part due to the effects of Tongue River Reservoir, 15 species of fish were found in the Tongue River drainage that were not found in the Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, or Little Powder River drainages. The number of introduced species and relative abundance of introduced species of fish were higher in the Tongue River and other drainages than at sites on the main-stem Powder River. Although non-native species were identified in the Powder River, the native fish community is largely intact. Western silvery minnow and sturgeon chub—species of special concern—were identified only at sites on the main-stem Powder River and were most common in the Montana segment of the main stem. Fish and habitat sampling on the main-stem Powder River indicated affinity of some species for certain habitats such as pools, runs, riffles, backwaters, or shoals.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2000

Primary food resources in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex mosaic of tidal freshwater habitats, is now a focus of ecosystem rehabilitation because of changes in critical functions associated with its geographic location at the landestuary interface. One of these functions is the production, transport, and transformation of organic matter that constitutes the “primary food supply,” that is, the food supply to the base of the food web. Interest in the primary food supply is motivated by evidence for sub-optimal food quantity or quality at trophic levels that support fish recruitment, including primary consumers such as clams, mysids, cladocerans, rotifers, and native copepods. We used the historical data set to examine the magnitudes of the most important organic matter sources for the Delta, the factors underlying their interannual and longer-term variability, and the implications of ecosystem rehabilitation actions for these sources. Here, we present a summary of the first phase of the analysis, including the quantitative importance of different organic matter sources and some of the hydrological controls on their year-to-year variability. The full report of this first phaseincluding data sources, the methods of calculation, and references, is in press elsewhere (Jassby and Cloern forthcoming). The historical data analysis is part of a larger project in which measurements of stable isotopes and biogeochemical markers, and experiments on organic matter biodegradation and zooplankton growth rates, are being used collectively to define the primary food resources and their quality.

California↗

USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Seaside, Oregon tsunami pilot study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps

FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study. Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University. Portland State University, Horning Geosciences, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Draft copies and a briefing on the contents, results and recommendations of this document were provided to FEMA officials before final publication.

Oregon↗

USGS1992

Toward digital geologic map standards: a progress report

Establishing modern scientific and technical standards for geologic maps and their derivative map products is vital to both producers and users of such maps as we move into an age of digital cartography. Application of earth-science data in complex geographic information systems, acceleration of geologic map production, and reduction of population costs require that national standards be developed for digital geologic cartography and computer analysis. Since December 1988, under commission of the Chief Geologic of the U.S. Geological Survey and the mandate of the National Geologic Mapping Program (with added representation from the Association of American State Geologists), a committee has been designing a comprehensive set of scientific map standards. Three primary issues were: (1) selecting scientific symbology and its digital representation; (2) creating an appropriate digital coding system that characterizes geologic features with respect to their physical properties, stratigraphic and structural relations, spatial orientation, and interpreted mode of origin; and (3) developing mechanisms for reporting levels of certainty for descriptive as well as measured properties. Approximately 650 symbols for geoscience maps, including present usage of the U.S Geological Survey, state geological surveys, industry, and academia have been identified and tentatively adopted. A proposed coding system comprises four-character groupings of major and minor codes that can identify all attributes of a geologic feature. Such a coding system allows unique identification of as many as 105 geologic names and values on a given map. The new standard will track closely the latest developments of the Proposed Standard for Digital Cartographic Data soon to be submitted to the National Institute of Standards and Technology by the Federal Interagency Coordinating Committee on Digital Cartography. This standard will adhere generally to the accepted definitions and specifications for spatial data transfer. It will require separate specifications of digital cartographic quality relating to positional accuracy and ranges of measured and interpreted values such as geologic age and rock composition. Provisional digital geologic map standards will be published for trial implementation. After approximately two years, when comments on the proposed standards have been solicited and modifications made, formal adoption of the standards will be recommended. Widespread acceptance of the new standards will depend on their applicability to the broadest range of earth-science map products and their adaptability to changing cartographic technology.

Conference Paper↗