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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

An oilspill risk analysis for the South Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the South Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spill occurrence, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable, paying particular attention to "worst-case" conditions. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area.

South Atlantic outer continental shelf↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the western Gulf of Alaska (Kodiak Island) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Western Gulf of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spill occurrence, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area. While the analysis includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion, the methodology has not yet been developed to analyze the mitigating effects of cleanups which if taken into account would reduce the impact probabilities.

Alaska↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the eastern Gulf of Mexico (proposed sale 65) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spills, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. This risk is compared to the existing oilspill risk from existing leases in the area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups.

Gulf Of Mexcio↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the Northern Gulf of Alaska (proposed sale 55), Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Northern Gulf of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall oilspill risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possibility of mitigating effects by cleanup efforts. The leasing of the tracts proposed for Sale 55 will result in an expected number of 2.8 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more spills within 30 days is 0.84; however, this probability varies greatly for the different targets and different contact times.

Alaska↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the Kodiak Island (proposed sale 46) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Kodiak Island Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The analysis included estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all parts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 46 will result in an expected number of 1.1 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills which have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.43.

Alaska↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the Central and Northern California (proposed Sale 53) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Central and Northern California Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The analysis included estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all parts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 53 will, depending upon how oil is transported to shore, result in an expected 2.0 to 3.1 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills which have been at sea less than 30 days is between 0.49 and 0.86.

California↗

Oilspill analysis for the Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait (proposed sale 60) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait (Proposed Sale 60) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all 153 proposed tracts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 60 will result in an expected 4.0 oilspills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.96.

Alaska↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (proposed sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the North Atlantic (Proposed Sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were also estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 40-percent chance) and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 52 will result in an expected 10.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.71. If existing transportation of oil in the area is considered, this probability increases greatly, to more than 0.99.

North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf↗

An oilspill risk analysis for the Beaufort Sea, Alaska (proposed sale 71)outer continental shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, (Proposed Sale 71) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The model predicted movement of the center of spill mass and estimated the times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources, to allow a qualitative assessment of oil characteristics at the time of contact; no direct computation was made of weathering and cleanup. The model also assumed that any oil spilled under ice would remain in place, unchanged, until spring breakup. Ice movements, or travel of oil under ice, if occurring, would affect the results in a manner not directly predictable at this time. The combined results of spill occurrence and spill movement predictions yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 99.3-percent chance) it is estimated that the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 71 will result in an expected 9.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) over the lease lifetime of 25 years. This estimate is based on historic oilspill accident data for platforms and pipelines on the U.S. OCS (Gulf of Mexico and California). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days (not counting any time trapped under ice) is greater than 99.5 percent. If oilspill accident data for Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, is used in the analysis, it is estimated that 5.6 oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger) will occur over the lease lifetime. The estimated probability that one or more oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger)will occur and contact land is99 percent. The results of a recent experimental cleanup operation for oilspills under ice in Canadian Arctic waters showed a substantial degree of success; this should be considered in evaluating impacts of spills predicted by this model. Oilspill occurrence probabilities are high primarily because of the large amount of oil believed to be present in the area.

Open-File Report↗

Quality of ground water used for public supply in Florida, 1983-84

From October 1983 through March 1984, a chemical sampling reconnaissance was made of ground water used for public supply for 91 communities throughout Florida. Public supply wells present an excellent network for collecting baseline water-quality information on the quality of ground water prior to any treatment because they are located throughout the State, are in the most populated areas, usually have continuous and often high pumpage, and have great health and economic significance. The reconnaissance was part of several project tasks sponsored by the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation to develop guidelines and data bases for use in the design and implementation of a statewide ground-water monitoring network as mandated by the recent enactment of Florida 's Water Quality Assurance Act of 1983. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Sources of water-use data in Minnesota

Since the 1976-77 drought in Minnesota, legislators, planners, and citizens have become aware of the need for water management based on knowledge of water availability and use in order to alleviate local water shortages. In addition to maintaining an adequate supply, information on the amount of water used, where it is used, and how it is used is needed to help resolve problems of resource allocation, environmental impact, energy development, and water quality. A reliable water-use-data base providing historical information is needed by management and regulatory agencies to monitor and project the hydrologic effects of water demands.

Minnesota↗

Results of a seepage investigation at Bear Creek Valley, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, January through September 1994

A seepage investigation was conducted of 4,600 acres of Bear Creek Valley southwest of the Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, for the period of January through September 1994. The data were collected to help the Y-12 Environmental Restoration Program develop a better understanding of ground-water and surface-water interactions, recharge and discharge relations, and ground-water flow patterns. The project was divided into three phases: a reconnaissance and mapping of seeps, springs, and stream-measurment sites; a high base flow seepage investigation; and a low base flow seepage investigation. The reconnaissance was conducted from January 6 to March 1, 1994, to identify and map the locations of seeps, springs, and stream-measurement sites. A total of 701 sites were identified. They consisted of 382 stream- measurement sites, 265 seeps, 48 springs, and 6 wetlands. A global positioning system was used to locate 680 sites to within 3- to 5-meter accuracy. The high base flow seepage investigation was conducted from March 14 through March 19, 1994. Measurements were made at 579 of the 701 sites identified in the reconnaissance that still had flowing water. Flow rates ranged from less than 0.005 to 6.89 cubic feet per second for the streams, from less than 0.005 to 0.13 cubic foot per second for the seeps, and from less than 0.005 to 1 cubic foot per second for the springs. pH ranged from 5.0 to 8.4 for the streams, from 5.1 to 8.2 for the seeps, from 5.3 to 8.0 for the springs, and from 6.7 to 6.8 for the wetland sites. Specific conductance ranged from 16 to 1,670 microsiemens per centimeter for the streams, from 17 to 1,710 microsiemens per centimeter for the seeps, from 14 to 1,150 microsiemens per centimeter for the springs, and from 102 to 160 microsiemens per centimeter for the wetland sites. Temperature ranged from 4.5 to 16.0 degrees Celsius for the streams, from 5.0 to 21.0 degrees Celsius for the seeps, from 6.0 to 13.5 degrees Celsius for the springs, and from 13.0 to 19.5 degrees Celsius for the wetland sites. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 4.8 to 11.2 milligrams per liter for the streams, 1.2 to 11.3 milligrams per liter for the seeps, and from 0.6 to 11.0 milligrams per liter for the springs. Dissolved oxygen at a wetland site measured 3.8 milligrams per liter. The low base flow investigation was conducted from September 9 through September 29, 1994. The stream sites, seeps, and springs that had flow during the high base flow seepage investigation were revisited. One-hundred seventy-six of the stream sites visited still had flow. Discharge ranged from less than 0.005 to 0.76 cubic foot per second; pH, from 4.8 to 8.3; specific conductance, from 47 to 2,030 microsiemens per centimeter; temperature, from 13.5 to 22.5 degrees Celsius; and dissolved oxygen, from 3.6 to 8.7 milligrams per liter. Twenty-five of the seeps visited were flowing and had discharge ranging from less than 0.005 to 0.01 cubic foot per second; pH, from 6.0 to 7.7; specific conductance, from 36 to 395 microsiemens per centimeter; temperature, from 16.0 to 21.0 degrees Celsius; and dissolved oxygen, from 2.2 to 9.0 milligrams per liter. Thirty springs visited were flowing and had discharge ranging from less than 0.005 to 0.37 cubic foot per second; pH, from 6.5 to 7.7; specific conductance, from 26 to 1,220 microsiemens per centimeter; temperature, from 14.0 to 20.0 degrees Celsius; and dissolved oxygen, from 1.0 to 9.2 milligrams per liter. All of the wetland sites visited were dry.

Open-File Report↗

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed unregulated, daily mean streamflow at 18 streamgages located across southern New England. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency goodness-of-fit values are between 0.69 and 0.98, and percent root-mean-square-error values are between 19 and 283 percent. The MA SYE tool provides an estimate of streamflow adjusted for current (2000-04) water withdrawals and discharges using a spatially referenced database of permitted groundwater and surface-water withdrawal and discharge volumes. For a user-selected basin, the database is queried to obtain the locations of water withdrawal or discharge volumes within the basin. Groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges are subtracted and added, respectively, from the unregulated, daily streamflow at an ungaged site to obtain a streamflow time series that includes the effects of these withdrawals and discharges. Users also have the option of applying an analytical solution to the time-varying, groundwater withdrawal and discharge volumes that take into account the effects of the aquifer properties on the timing and magnitude of streamflow alteration. For the MA SYE tool, it is assumed that groundwater and surface-water divides are coincident. For areas of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where this assumption is known to be violated, groundwater-flow models are used to estimate average monthly streamflows at fixed locations. There are several limitations to the quality and quantity of the spatially referenced database of groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges. The adjusted streamflow values do not account for the effects on streamflow of climate change, septic-system discharge, impervious area, non-public water-supply withdrawals less than 100,000 gallons per day, and impounded surface-water bodies.

Massachusetts↗

Water-budgets and recharge-area simulations for the Spring Creek and Nittany Creek Basins and parts of the Spruce Creek Basin, Centre and Huntingdon Counties, Pennsylvania, Water Years 2000–06

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with ClearWater Conservancy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to develop a hydrologic model to simulate a water budget and identify areas of greater than average recharge for the Spring Creek Basin in central Pennsylvania. The model was developed to help policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public better understand and manage the water resources in the region. The Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW), which is an integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT), was used to simulate surface water and groundwater in the Spring Creek Basin for water years 2000–06. Because the groundwater and surface-water divides for the Spring Creek Basin do not coincide, the study area includes the Nittany Creek Basin and headwaters of the Spruce Creek Basin. The hydrologic model was developed by the use of a stepwise process: (1) develop and calibrate a PRMS model and steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model; (2) re-calibrate the steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model using potential recharge estimates simulated from the PRMS model, and (3) integrate the PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models into GSFLOW. The individually calibrated PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models were used as a starting point for the calibration of the fully coupled GSFLOW model. The GSFLOW model calibration was done by comparing observations and corresponding simulated values of streamflow from 11 streamgages and groundwater levels from 16 wells. The cumulative water budget and individual water budgets for water years 2000–06 were simulated by using GSFLOW. The largest source and sink terms are represented by precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. For the period simulated, a net surplus in the water budget was computed where inflows exceeded outflows by about 1.7 billion cubic feet (0.47 inches per year over the basin area); storage increased by about the same amount to balance the budget. The rate and distribution of recharge throughout the Spring Creek, Nittany Creek, and Spruce Creek Basins is variable as a result of the high degree of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and karst features. The greatest amount of recharge was simulated in the carbonate-bedrock valley, near the toe slopes of Nittany and Tussey Mountains, in the Scotia Barrens, and along the area coinciding with the Gatesburg Formation. Runoff extremes were observed for water years 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year). Simulated average recharge rates (water reaching the saturated zone as defined in GSFLOW) for 2001 and 2004 were 5.4 in/yr and 22.0 in/yr, respectively. Areas where simulations show large variations in annual recharge between wet and dry years are the same areas where simulated recharge was large. Those areas where rates of groundwater recharge are much higher than average, and are capable of accepting substantially greater quantities of recharge during wet years, might be considered critical for maintaining the flow of springs, stream base flow, or the source of water to supply wells. The slopes of the Bald Eagle, Tussey, and Nittany Mountains are relatively insensitive to variations in recharge, primarily because of reduced infiltration rates and steep slopes.

Pennsylvania↗

Storage capacity of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam, Mariana Islands, 2014

The Fena Valley Reservoir is in southern Guam and is the primary source of water for the U.S. Naval Base Guam and nearby village residents. Since the construction of the Fena Dam in 1951, sediment has accumulated in the reservoir and reduced its storage capacity. The reservoir was surveyed previously in 1973, 1979, and 1990 to estimate the loss in storage capacity. To determine the current storage capacity, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, surveyed the bathymetry of the reservoir in February 2014. The bathymetric survey was accomplished by making depth soundings using a boat-mounted, acoustic Doppler current profiler. Location during bathymetric data collection was determined using a single-base Global Navigation Satellite System-Real Time Kinematic survey. Vertical profiles of conductivity, temperature, and depth were collected periodically. The conductivity, temperature, and depth profiles were used to spatially and temporally adjust the sound-speed calculations used to determine depth from the soundings. Approximately 108 kilometers of transects with a total of about 380,000 depth soundings were surveyed. In addition, approximately 2,100 topographic survey points in shallow, wadable areas near the Imong River Delta were defined by using a Global Navigation Satellite System receiver attached to a fixed-length survey rod. Depth soundings and topographic survey points were compiled and interpolated to generate a digital-elevation model of the reservoir. Data extracted from the digital-elevation model were then tabulated to determine total reservoir capacity and create reservoir stage–surface area and stage–storage capacity tables. Analyses of the bathymetric data indicate that the reservoir currently has 6,915 acre-feet of storage capacity. The engineering drawings of record show that the total reservoir capacity in 1951 was estimated to be 8,365 acre-feet. Thus, between 1951 and 2014, the total storage capacity decreased by 1,450 acre-feet (a loss of 17 percent of the original total storage capacity). The remaining live-storage capacity, or the volume of storage above the lowest-level reservoir outlet elevation, was calculated to be 5,511 acre-feet in 2014, indicating a decrease of 372 acre-feet (or 6 percent) of the original 5,883 acre-feet of live-storage capacity. The remaining dead-storage capacity, or volume of storage below the lowest-level outlet, was 1,404 acre-feet in 2014, indicating a decrease of 1,078 acre-feet (or 43 percent) of the original 2,482 acre-feet of dead-storage capacity.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations. The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area. The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Georgia↗

Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model. Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River. The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume. In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas. The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterizing future streamflows in Massachusetts using stochastic modeling—A pilot study

Communities throughout Massachusetts face the potential effects of climate change, ranging from more extreme rainfall to more pronounced and frequent droughts. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrology is important to State and community officials to evaluate the potential effects on infrastructure and water systems. To better understand the effects of climate change on hydrology, the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with Cornell University and Tufts University, conducted a study in cooperation with the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs to develop tools for projecting 21st-century climate and hydrologic characteristics in Massachusetts. A stochastic weather generator was developed to project future climatic characteristics for Massachusetts. The stochastic weather generator estimates daily precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature for 17 warming scenarios (from 0 to 8 degrees Celsius, in 0.5-degree increments). To project future hydrologic characteristics, the stochastic weather generator output data were input to the Precipitation-Watershed Modeling System deterministic watershed model for the Squannacook River watershed, which is the watershed selected as the pilot study location for investigating future hydrologic characteristics. Hydrologic data output from the deterministic watershed model were then input to a stochastic watershed model developed for this study to correct model errors (model errors are often observed in the output from deterministic models at the high- and low-flow extremes). The output from the stochastic watershed model was then used to characterize hydrology for the 17 warming scenarios. For the Squannacook River watershed, the results project more extreme flood and low streamflows under the warming scenarios. Output from the tools allows the characterization of future streamflows for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, which expands our understanding of 21st-century climatic and hydrologic risk in Massachusetts. These tools could improve Federal, State, and community officials’ ability to mitigate the effects of climate change over the next several decades.

Massachusetts↗