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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

Hydraulic model and flood-inundation maps developed for the Pee Dee National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina

A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Pee Dee National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina, to provide a means for predicting flood-plain inundation. The model was developed for selected reaches of the Pee Dee River, Brown Creek, and Rocky River, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) software. Multiple cross sections were defined on each modeled stream, and hydrologic data were collected between August 2011 and August 2013 at selected locations on the Pee Dee River and on its tributaries Brown Creek, Rocky River, and Thoroughfare Creek. Cross-section, stage, and flow data were used to develop the model and simulate water-surface profiles at 1.0-foot increments at the USGS streamgage Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge near Ansonville, N.C. The profiles were produced for 31 selected water levels that ranged from approximately 193.0 feet to 223.0 feet in elevation at the Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge streamgage. A series of digital flood-inundation maps were developed on the basis of the water-surface profiles produced by the model. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels at the USGS streamgage Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge near Ansonville, N.C. These maps, when combined with real-time water-level information from USGS streamgages, provide managers with critical information to help plan flood-response activities and resource protection efforts.

North Carolina

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of selected streams near the city of Rittman in Wayne and Medina Counties, Ohio

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District and the city of Rittman, Ohio, did a study to provide data to update and expand parts of two Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Studies. The study consisted of hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for selected reaches of four streams (Chippewa Creek, Little Chippewa Creek, Styx River, and the unnamed tributary to Styx River) near the city of Rittman in Wayne and Medina Counties, Ohio. The study covered 36.2 miles of stream reaches. Instantaneous peak streamflows for floods with 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent and 1-percent plus annual exceedance probabilities were estimated using historical streamflow data from three U.S. Geological Survey streamgages and regional flood-frequency regression equations. The flood-frequency estimates were then used in a Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System step-backwater model to determine water-surface profiles; flood-inundation boundaries for the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent and 1-percent plus annual exceedance probabilities; and a regulatory floodway for the study reaches. Model inputs included cross sections derived from a digital elevation model supplemented with field surveys of open-channel cross sections and hydraulic structures, field estimates of Manning’s roughness values, and flood estimates determined from regional regression equations and historical streamflow data. Flood-inundation boundaries were mapped for each stream reach for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods and a regulatory floodway. All data used in the creation of the flood-inundation boundaries are available through a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Ostheimer, 2021) and will be submitted to the Federal Emergency Management Agency for inclusion in updated Flood Insurance Studies for Wayne and Medina Counties.

Ohio

Flood-inundation maps created using a synthetic rating curve for a 10-mile reach of the Sabinal River and a 7-mile reach of the West Sabinal River near Utopia, Texas, 2021

In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bandera County River Authority and Groundwater District and the Texas Water Development Board, studied floods to produce a library of flood-inundation maps for the Sabinal River near Utopia, Texas. Digital flood-inundation maps were created for a 10-mile reach of the Sabinal River from USGS streamgage 08197936 Sabinal River below Mill Creek near Vanderpool, Tex., at the upstream boundary of the study reach, to USGS streamgage 08197970 Sabinal River at Utopia, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Utopia gage”), at the downstream boundary of the study reach, and for a 7-mile reach of the West Sabinal River. The flood-inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected gage heights (the water-surface elevation at a streamgage, commonly referred to as “stage”) at the Utopia gage. Water-surface elevations were computed for the stream reach by means of a two-dimensional unsteady-state diffusion wave model with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System program. A synthetic stage-discharge rating curve at the Utopia gage was developed using a regional regression equation to construct the model boundary condition inputs, and the upper bound of the stage-discharge relation was matched to a major flood event in July 2002. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface elevations for 35 stages at 0.5-foot (ft) increments referenced to the Utopia gage datum and ranging from 11 ft (near bankfull) to 28 ft (estimated peak stage during the July 2002 flood event). These flood-inundation maps, in conjunction with the real-time stage data from the Utopia gage, are intended to help guide the public in taking individual safety precautions and provide emergency management personnel with a tool to efficiently manage emergency flood operations and postflood recovery efforts.

Texas

Two-dimensional hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River near McHenry, Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers operating the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Illinois. These managers determine the optimal operation of the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Ill., to manage Chain of Lakes pool levels and to help mitigate flooding in the Chain of Lakes system. In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources–Office of Water Resources (IDNR–OWR) began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate water-surface elevations and flows and to proactively prepare for runoff events forecasted for the Chain of Lakes. The hydraulic model described in this report may be helpful to the IDNR–OWR for optimizing the operation of the Stratton Dam and includes the implementation of three newly installed torque-tube crest gates that became operational in 2020. The hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System program (version 6.5). The hydraulic model was used to simulate water-surface elevations and flows through the 18.5-mile Chain of Lakes system to 1.7 miles downstream from the Stratton Dam. Five USGS streamgages within the study area were used as reference points for model calibration and initial water-surface elevations for beginning a simulation. The hydraulic model was calibrated to three runoff events that incorporated the design specifications and observed gate operations of the Stratton Dam; furthermore, the hydraulic model simulated a validation event and a substantial flooding event during July 2017. The July 2017 event predated the torque-tube crest gate installation but nevertheless tested the performance of the model for such a substantial event. The model simulation results were a good fit to observed records at USGS streamgages with simulated peak water-surface elevations within −0.36–0.15 foot of observed events. The hydraulic model was then implemented into a forecast workflow that streamlines implementation of model inputs and documents the model outputs tailored to IDNR–OWS Stratton Dam operations and interpretations of simulated water-surface elevations and flows.

Illinois

Precipitation-based flood-inundation maps for the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries at Lee’s Summit, Missouri, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, assessed flooding of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries for varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, varying antecedent runoff conditions, and projected climate-change conditions. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps for a 2.95-mile reach of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries within the city. A two-dimensional U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; ver. 6.5) rain-on-grid model was calibrated to selected runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. Lowest adjacent grades for structures within the nearby study area were incorporated into the terrain, and depth grids and water-surface elevation grids were developed for the study area. Simulated velocities at selected bridge locations were also developed from the model. The model was calibrated using water-surface elevation data collected from water-level loggers (pressure transducers) and streamflow measurements and water-surface elevation measurements made at a reference point during runoff events. The calibrated HEC–RAS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 15-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability (1-year to 1,000-year recurrence intervals). Flood-inundation maps were produced for depths at a reference location of 3 to 16 feet, or a depth exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 1-foot-increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. Within the HEC–RAS model, 240 scenarios were developed from the design rainfall events with each of 3 antecedent conditions. Additional scenarios were created to simulate the effects of projected precipitation scenarios on the 100-year recurrence interval, 24-hour storm and the 100-year recurrence interval, 6-hour storm. All simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. The flood-inundation maps are shown on a web mapping application made available to the public through the City of Lee’s Summit (hyperlink will be added when available). The flood-inundation maps are tied to real-time precipitation data obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System weather station at the Lee’s Summit Municipal Airport, accessible at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MO_ASOS . The availability of these maps, along with information regarding observed rainfall, could help provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri

Hydrology, geomorphology, and flood profiles of the Mendenhall River, Juneau, Alaska

Water-surface-profile elevations for the 2-, 20-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were computed for the Mendenhall River near Juneau, Alaska, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model. The peak discharges for the selected recurrence intervals were determined using the standard log-Pearson type III method. Channel cross sections were surveyed at 60 locations to define hydraulic characteristics over a 5.5-mile reach of river beginning at Mendenhall Lake outlet and extending to the river mouth. A peak flow of 12,400 cubic feet per second occurred on the Mendenhall River on October 20, 1998. This discharge is equivalent to about a 10-year flood on the Mendenhall River and floodmarks produced by this flood were surveyed and used to calibrate the model. The study area is currently experiencing land-surface uplift rates of about 0.05 foot per year. This high rate of uplift has the potential to cause incision or downcutting of the river channel through lowering of the base level. Vertical datum used in the study area was established about 37 years before the most recent surveys of river-channel geometry. The resulting difference between land-surface elevations and sea level continues to increase. Continuing incision of the river channel combined with increased land-surface elevations with respect to sea level may result in computed flood profiles that are higher than actual existing conditions in the tidally influenced reach of the river.

Alaska

Effects of climate change on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek basin, Wildwood, Missouri

The city of Wildwood, Missouri, has identified fluvial erosion along Caulks Creek as a management priority due to potential effects to infrastructure and property. The upper and middle reaches of Caulks Creek flow intermittently (only immediately after precipitation), whereas the lower reach flows perennially. This study examines the effects of climate change and added storage on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek Basin to design storms. The study uses hydrologic (Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System – HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System – HEC-RAS) models furnished by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). HEC-HMS simulations were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response to a suite of design storms under both normal and wet antecedent conditions and for both the existing storage structures and new storage in the basin. The suite of design storms included all combinations of the following: (a) storm durations: 6-hour and 24-hour, (b) annual exceedance probabilities: 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01, (c) climate conditions: current, 30-year, and 80-year predictions of future climate from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool. Additionally, for a selection of scenarios, results from the HEC-HMS simulations were used as boundary conditions for two-dimensional (2D) HEC-RAS simulations aimed at understanding how the distribution of velocity, shear stress, and stream power throughout the stream may be affected by projected changes in climate.

Missouri

LiDAR-Derived Flood-Inundation Maps for Real-Time Flood-Mapping Applications, Tar River Basin, North Carolina

Flood-inundation maps were created for selected streamgage sites in the North Carolina Tar River basin. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data with a vertical accuracy of about 20 centimeters, provided by the Floodplain Mapping Information System of the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program, were processed to produce topographic data for the inundation maps. Bare-earth mass point LiDAR data were reprocessed into a digital elevation model with regularly spaced 1.5-meter by 1.5-meter cells. A tool was developed as part of this project to connect flow paths, or streams, that were inappropriately disconnected in the digital elevation model by such features as a bridge or road crossing. The Hydraulic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, was used for hydraulic modeling at each of the study sites. Eleven individual hydraulic models were developed for the Tar River basin sites. Seven models were developed for reaches with a single gage, and four models were developed for reaches of the Tar River main stem that receive flow from major gaged tributaries, or reaches in which multiple gages were near one another. Combined, the Tar River hydraulic models included 272 kilometers of streams in the basin, including about 162 kilometers on the Tar River main stem. The hydraulic models were calibrated to the most current stage-discharge relations at 11 long-term streamgages where rating curves were available. Medium- to high-flow discharge measurements were made at some of the sites without rating curves, and high-water marks from Hurricanes Fran and Floyd were available for high-stage calibration. Simulated rating curves matched measured curves over the full range of flows. Differences between measured and simulated water levels for a specified flow were no more than 0.44 meter and typically were less. The calibrated models were used to generate a set of water-surface profiles for each of the 11 modeled reaches at 0.305-meter increments for water levels ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the downstream-most gage in each modeled reach. Inundated areas were identified by subtracting the water-surface elevation in each 1.5-meter by 1.5-meter grid cell from the land-surface elevation in the cell through an automated routine that was developed to identify all inundated cells hydraulically connected to the cell at the downstream-most gage in the model domain. Inundation maps showing transportation networks and orthoimagery were prepared for display on the Internet. These maps also are linked to the U.S. Geological Survey North Carolina Water Science Center real-time streamflow website. Hence, a user can determine the near real-time stage and water-surface elevation at a U.S. Geological Survey streamgage site in the Tar River basin and link directly to the flood-inundation maps for a depiction of the estimated inundated area at the current water level. Although the flood-inundation maps represent distinct boundaries of inundated areas, some uncertainties are associated with these maps. These are uncertainties in the topographic data for the hydraulic model computational grid and inundation maps, effective friction values (Manning's n), model-validation data, and forecast hydrographs, if used. The Tar River flood-inundation maps were developed by using a steady-flow hydraulic model. This assumption clearly has less of an effect on inundation maps produced for low flows than for high flows when it typically takes more time to inundate areas. A flood in which water levels peak and fall slowly most likely will result in more inundation than a similar flood in which water levels peak and fall quickly. Limitations associated with the steady-flow assumption for hydraulic modeling vary from site to site. The one-dimensional modeling approach used in this study resulted in good agreement between measurements and simulations. T

North Carolina

Extent of areal inundation of riverine wetlands along Cypress Creek and the Peace, Alafia, North Prong Alafia, and South Prong Alafia Rivers, west-central Florida

Riverine and palustrine system wetlands are a major ecological component of river basins in west-central Florida. Healthy wetlands are dependent upon the frequency and duration of periodic flooding or inundation. This report assesses the extent, area, depth, frequency, and duration of periodic flooding and the effects of potential surface-water withdrawals on the wetlands along Cypress Creek and the Peace, Alafia, North Prong Alafia, and South Prong Alafia Rivers. Results of the study were derived from step-backwater analysis performed at each of the rivers using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) one-dimensional model. The step-backwater analysis was performed using selected daily mean discharges at the 10th, 50th, 70th, 80th, 90th, 98th, 99.5th, and 99.9th percentiles to compute extent of areal inundation, area of inundation, and hydraulic depth to assess the net reduction of areal inundation if 10 percent of the total river flow were diverted for potential withdrawals. The extent of areal inundation is determined by cross-sectional topography and the degree to which the channel is incised. Areal inundation occurs along the broad, low relief of the Cypress Creek floodplain during all selected discharge percentiles. However, areal inundation of the Peace and Alafia Rivers floodplains, which generally have deeply incised channels, occurs at or above discharges at the 80th percentile. The greatest area of inundation along the three rivers generally occurs between the 90th and 98th percentile discharges. The decrease in inundated area resulting from a potential 10-percent withdrawal in discharge ranged as follows: Cypress Creek, 22 to 395 acres (1.7 to 8.4 percent); Peace River, 17 to 1,900 acres (2.1 to 13.6 percent); Alafia River, 1 to 90 acres (1 to 19.6 percent); North Prong Alafia River, 1 to 46 acres (0.7 to 23.4 percent); and South Prong Alafia River, 1 to 75 acres (1.5 to 13.4 percent).

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Relation of drainage problems to high ground-water levels, Coconut Grove area, Oahu, Hawaii

Purpose and Scope In 1969, hydrologic data-collection sites were established in and around the Coconut Grove area for the purpose of measuring directly the relationship between rainfall, runoff, ground-water levels, the level of water in Kawainui Swamp and the canals, and tidal fluctuations. The primary objective was to identify the causes of the occurrence and persistence of flooding and to gain data on which to base recommendations for remedial action. The scope of the study included establishing and operating flow and stage-recording gages on the Swamp, Kawainui Canal, and the inner canal; periodic and repeated measurements of ground-water level in test borings throughout the residential area; collection and analysis of soil and construction borings made for engineering purposes; the assembly and analysis of all available data relating surface and subsurface flow conditions, and the development of conclusions as to the causes and means to alleviate the flooding. This report summarizes the information collected from October 1969 to June 1971, includes analysis of the data, and discusses the probable causes of flooding.

Hawai'i

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio‐economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user‐friendliness, and excellent user‐support. Forty‐one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user‐support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user‐friendly forms, increasing user‐support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Nonetheless, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.

Ecohydrology

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers. The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model. Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam. Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation. The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Orocovis

Summary and Comparison of Multiphase Streambed Scour Analysis at Selected Bridge Sites in Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities undertook a cooperative multiphase study of streambed scour at selected bridges in Alaska beginning in 1994. Of the 325 bridges analyzed for susceptibility to scour in the preliminary phase, 54 bridges were selected for a more intensive analysis that included site investigations. Cross-section geometry and hydraulic properties for each site in this study were determined from field surveys and bridge plans. Water-surface profiles were calculated for the 100- and 500-year floods using the Hydrologic Engineering Center?s River Analysis System and scour depths were calculated using methods recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. Computed contraction-scour depths for the 100- and 500-year recurrence-interval discharges exceeded 5 feet at six bridges, and pier-scour depths exceeded 10 feet at 24 bridges. Complex pier-scour computations were made at 10 locations where the computed contraction-scour depths would expose pier footings. Pressure scour was evaluated at three bridges where the modeled flood water-surface elevations intersected the bridge structure. Site investigation at the 54 scour-critical bridges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the preliminary scour analysis. Values for channel-flow angle of attack and approach-channel width were estimated from bridge survey plans for the preliminary study and were measured during a site investigation for this study. These two variables account for changes in scour depths between the preliminary analysis and subsequent reanalysis for most sites. Site investigation is needed for best estimates of scour at bridges with survey plans that indicate a channel-flow angle of attack and for locations where survey plans did not include sufficient channel geometry upstream of the bridge.

Scientific Investigations Report

Analysis of the transport of sediment by the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, after the May 2006 flood

During May 13-16, 2006, rainfall in excess of 8.8 inches flooded central and southern New Hampshire. On May 15, 2006, a breach in a bank of the Suncook River in Epsom, New Hampshire, caused the river to follow a new path. In order to assess and predict the effect of the sediment in, and the subsequent flooding on, the river and flood plain, a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) characterizing sediment transport in the Suncook River was undertaken in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used to simulate flow and the transport of noncohesive sediments in the Suncook River from the upstream corporate limit of Epsom to the river's confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (Allenstown and Pembroke, N.H.), a distance of approximately 16 miles. In addition to determining total sediment loads, analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials for selected recurrence intervals that are based on the Suncook River streamgage flow data (streamgage 01089500) and on streambed elevations predicted by HEC-RAS for the end of water year 2010 (September 30, 2010) in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown. This report presents changes in streambed and water-surface elevations predicted by the HEC-RAS model using data through the end of water year 2010 for the 50-, 10-, 2-, 1-, 0.2-percent annual exceedence probabilities (2-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods, respectively), calculated daily and annual total sediment loads, and a determination of aggrading and degrading stream reaches. The model was calibrated and evaluated for a 400-day span from May 8, 2008 through June 11, 2009; these two dates coincided with field collection of stream cross-sectional elevation data. Seven sediment-transport functions were evaluated in the model with the Laursen (Copeland) sediment-transport function best describing the sediment load, transport behavior, and changes in streambed elevation for the specified spatial and temporal conditions of the 400-day calibration period. Simulation results from the model and field-collected sediment data indicate that, downstream of the avulsion channel, for the average daily mean flow during the study period, approximately 100 to 400 tons per day of sediment (varying with daily mean flow) was moving past the Short Falls Road Bridge over the Suncook River in Epsom, while approximately 0.05 to 0.5 tons per day of sediment was moving past the Route 28 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown, and approximately 1 to 10 tons per day was moving past the Route 3 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown. Changes in water-surface elevation that the model predicted for the end of water year 2010 to be a result of changes in streambed elevation ranged from a mean increase of 0.20 feet (ft) for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood (2-year recurrence-interval flood) due to an average thalweg increase of 0.88 ft between the Short Falls Road Bridge and the Buck Street Dams in Pembroke and Allenstown to a mean decrease of 0.41 ft for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood due to an average thalweg decrease of 0.49 ft above the avulsion in Epsom. An analysis of shear stress (force created by a fluid acting on sediment particles) was undertaken to determine potential areas of erosion and deposition. Based on the median grain size (d50) and shear stress analysis, the study found that in general, for floods greater than the 50-percent annual exceedence probability flood, the shear stress in the streambed is greater than the critical shear stress in much of the river study reach. The result is an expectation of streambed-sediment movement and erosion even at high exceedence-probability events, pending although the stream ultimately attains equilibrium through stream-stabilization measures or the adjustment of the river over time. The potential for aggradation in the Suncook River is greatest in the reach downstream of the avulsion. Specifically, these reaches are (1) downstream of the former sand pit from adjacent to Round Pond to downstream of the flood chute at the large meander bends, and (2) downstream of the Short Falls Road Bridge to approximately 3,800 ft upstream of the Route 28 bridge. The potential for degradation-net lowering of the streambed-is greatest for the reach upstream of the avulsion to the Route 4 bridge.

New Hampshire

Analysis of a 24-Year photographic record of Nisqually glacier, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

A systematic coverage of Nisqually Glacier by photographs taken from a network of stations on the ground was begun in 1942 to explore the value and limitations of such photographs as an aid in glacier study. Principles developed may be of value elsewhere, especially for the program 'Measurement of Glacier Variations on a World-Wide Basis' of the International Hydrological Decade. Nisqually Glacier in Mount Rainier National Park, Wash., covers 2.5 square miles (6.5 square kilometers) (1961) and extends from an altitude of about 14,300 feet (4,400 meters) near the top of Mount Rainier down to 4,700 feet (1,400 meters), in a horizontal distance of 4.1 miles (6.6 kilometers). Analyses were made of the annual photographs taken by the writer for 24 years from about 20 stations. A number of pictures taken sporadically from 1884 to 1941 by others were also available for use in the study. Where possible, the results obtained from photographs were compared with those from the available engineering surveys. Such detailed analysis of an extensive photographic coverage of a single glacier may be unique. Photographs illustrating the retreat and advance of the glacier's west ice margin in a reach extending for about a mile (1.6 kilometers) downstream from Wilson Glacier show that, by 1965, most of the ice thickness lost in that area between 1890 and 1944 had been recovered. Withering of the stagnant valley tongue down glacier from the nunatak is portrayed, as is its spectacular reactivation in the 1960's by a vigorous advance of fresh ice. Some of the visible characteristics of advancing and receding termini are noted. Annual values of the glacier's surface slope (5 to 10 degrees) at a cross profile were measured on photographs with respect to a projected vertical line identifiable in each picture. The results were found to average about 2 degrees less than those obtained from the 5-year topographic maps, but they are thought to be a little more accurate owing to lack of a sufficiently small contour interval on the maps for this special purpose. Year-to-year variations in the surface slope and other characteristics from place to place along the glacier are portrayed by pictures to a degree not economically attainable by any other means. Annual changes in the glacier's thickness at two locations were determined from photographs and found to agree well with the results of stadia surveys. A summary of conclusions reached in regard to other data or features of the glacier that were illustrated by annual photographs follows: 1. Toward the end of the ablation season, position of the annual snowline ranged between altitudes of about 5,800 and 7,300 feet (1,750 and 2,250 meters). The altitude limits within which firn was observed on the glacier were about 6,000 and 7,300 feet (1,850 and 2,250 meters). 2. Sources from which debris reaches the glacier are evident. 3. Medial moraines and other persistent patterns sometimes overlooked in the field are more noticeable in photographs. Ice-cored moraines and patterns of multiple lateral moraines are visible. 4. The extent, severity, and nature of crevassing in an area reflect the dynamic condition of the glacier at that location. 5. Erosion has caused certain bedrock areas or features on canyon walls to become unrecognizable within less than 15 years. 6. Effects of the 1932 and 1955 outburst floods on the stream channel and trees for a mile (1.6 kilometers) or so below the glacier are shown in comparison with ordinary, lesser floods. Visible effects include degradation, widening and changes in configuration of the channel, formation of small terraces, removal of vegetation from the flood plain, and the deposition of huge boulders on the stream banks and flood plain. Some photographic procedures recommended for use in a program of this type are described in the section on "Recommended Photographic Procedures."

Washington

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

Oklahoma

Numerical simulation of the paleohydrology of glacial Lake Oshkosh, eastern Wisconsin, USA

Proglacial lakes, formed during retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet, evolved quickly as outlets became ice-free and the earth deformed through glacial isostatic adjustment. With high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and GIS methods, it is possible to reconstruct the evolution of surface hydrology. When a DEM deforms through time as predicted by our model of viscoelastic earth relaxation, the entire surface hydrologic system with its lakes, outlets, shorelines and rivers also evolves without requiring assumptions of outlet position. The method is applied to proglacial Lake Oshkosh in Wisconsin (13,600 to 12,900??cal yr BP). Comparison of predicted to observed shoreline tilt indicates the ice sheet was about 400??m thick over the Great Lakes region. During ice sheet recession, each of the five outlets are predicted to uplift more than 100??m and then subside approximately 30??m. At its maximum extent, Lake Oshkosh covered 6600??km2 with a volume of 111??km3. Using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model, flow velocities during glacial outburst floods up to 9??m/s and peak discharge of 140,000??m3/s are predicted, which could drain 33.5??km3 of lake water in 10??days and transport boulders up to 3??m in diameter. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research

SAM 2.1—A computer program for plotting and formatting surveying data for estimating peak discharges by the slope-area method

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures discharge in streams using several methods. However, measurement of peak discharges is often impossible or impractical due to difficult access, inherent danger of making measurements during flood events, and timing often associated with flood events. Thus, many peak discharge values often are calculated after the fact by use of indirect methods. The most common indirect method for estimating peak dis- charges in streams is the slope-area method. This, like other indirect methods, requires measuring the flood profile through detailed surveys. Processing the survey data for efficient entry into computer streamflow models can be time demanding; SAM 2.1 is a program designed to expedite that process. The SAM 2.1 computer program is designed to be run in the field on a portable computer. The program processes digital surveying data obtained from an electronic surveying instrument during slope- area measurements. After all measurements have been completed, the program generates files to be input into the SAC (Slope-Area Computation program; Fulford, 1994) or HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System; Brunner, 2001) computer streamflow models so that an estimate of the peak discharge can be calculated.

Fact Sheet