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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine: long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms

Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004–2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization. Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with>300 cysts cm −3 ) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3–4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0–1 and the 0–3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts→blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms→cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0–3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year's bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.

Maine↗
USGS2020

Palaeotsunamis in the Sino-Pacific region

Palaeotsunami research in the Sino-Pacific region has increased markedly following the 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunami. Recent studies encompass a variety of potential sources and cover a full range of research activities from detailed studies at individual sites through to region-wide data collation for the purposes of database development. We synthesise palaeotsunami data from around the region drawing on key examples to highlight the progress made since 2011. We focus on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from region-wide to local events, from multi-millennial site records to estimates of magnitude and frequency along national coastlines. The review is based on sub-regions but in reviewing the combined records highlights common events and anomalies. In doing so we identify future research opportunities and notable findings arising from our review.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2013

Effects of future urban and biofuel crop expansions on the riverine export of phosphorus to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Increased phosphorus (P) loadings threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL). To understand the linkages between land use and P delivery, we coupled two spatially explicit models, the landscape-scale SPARROW P fate and transport watershed model and the Land Transformation Model (LTM) land use change model, to predict future P export from nonpoint and point sources caused by changes in land use. According to LTM predictions over the period 2010–2040, the GL region of the U.S. may experience a doubling of urbanized areas and agricultural areas may increase by 10%, due to biofuel feedstock cultivation. These land use changes are predicted to increase P loadings from the U.S. side of the GL basin by 3.5–9.5%, depending on the Lake watershed and development scenario. The exception is Lake Ontario, where loading is predicted to decrease by 1.8% for one scenario, due to population losses in the drainage area. Overall, urban expansion is estimated to increase P loadings by 3.4%. Agricultural expansion associated with predicted biofuel feedstock cultivation is predicted to increase P loadings by an additional 2.4%. Watersheds that export P most efficiently and thus are the most vulnerable to increases in P sources tend to be found along southern Lake Ontario, southeastern Lake Erie, western Lake Michigan, and southwestern Lake Superior where watershed areas are concentrated along the coastline with shorter flow paths. In contrast, watersheds with high soil permeabilities, fractions of land underlain by tile drains, and long distances to the GL are less vulnerable.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2006

Temporal and spatial variability in the flow and dispersal of suspended-sediment on a fringing reef flat, Molokai, Hawaii

A multi-year study was conducted on a shallow fringing reef flat on Molokai, Hawaii to determine the temporal and spatial dispersal patterns of terrigenous suspended sediment. During this study, trade-wind conditions existed for the majority of the year on the reef flat. The trade-wind conditions produced strong currents and resuspended moderate amounts of sediment on the reef flat on a daily basis during the year of study, resulting in an overwhelming contribution to the total sediment flux. The magnitude and direction of the trade winds relative to the orientation of the coastline, the shallow-relief and broad morphology, and tidal elevation, provided the primary control of the physical processes that resuspended and transported sediment on the reef flat over the period of record. Spatial data indicate that much of the terrigenous sediment resuspended on the reef flat is transported predominantly alongshore and is confined to the inner- to mid-reef flat. Evidence for the limited across-shore mixing and transport is provided by the dominantly alongshore wind-driven currents during trade-wind conditions and the well-defined across-shore gradient in percentage calcium carbonate of the suspended sediment. Regions of slightly offshore suspended-sediment transport along the reef flat can be attributed to the circulation pattern set up by the interaction between the trade winds, coastal morphology, and anthropogenic coastal structures (i.e., fish ponds and wharf). The regions in which sediment were seen to move offshore provide the strongest link between the sediment dynamics on reef flat and fore reef, and qualitatively appears to be correlated with low coral coverage on the fore reef. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗
USGS2020

Hurricane sedimentation in a subtropical salt marsh-mangrove community is unaffected by vegetation type

Hurricanes periodically deliver sediment to coastal wetlands, such as those in the Mississippi River Delta Complex (MRDC), slowing elevation loss and improving resilience to sea-level rise. However, the amount of hurricane sediment deposited and retained in a wetland may vary depending on the dominant vegetation. In the subtropical climate of the MRDC, the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) has been expanding and replacing salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora). Because these vegetation types differ in structure, their influence on sedimentation may also differ. We conducted a survey along 160 km of coastline to determine if the spatial deposition pattern in saline wetlands by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in September 2008 was differentially influenced by vegetation type. Sampling was initiated two months after landfall at eighteen sites in the MRDC containing side-by-side stands of A. germinans and S. alterniflora along the shoreline, with S. alterniflora marsh landward. Average thickness of hurricane sediment across sites varied from 0.6 to 5.6 cm with an overall mean of 2.6 ± 0.4 cm. Within sites, hurricane-layer thickness varied from 1.3 cm at the shoreline to 4.8 cm in the marsh interior, but this pattern was unaffected by vegetation type. Despite greater canopy height, stem density (including pneumatophores), and leaf area, mangroves did not capture more hurricane sediment than salt marsh nor did they attenuate the delivery of sediment to the marsh interior. Data recorded at thirty-six monitoring stations in Louisiana's Coastwide Reference Monitoring System further showed that rates of accretion, as well as elevation change, in saline wetlands (S. alterniflora) of the MRDC were temporarily increased by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. These findings agree with previous work showing the beneficial effects of hurricane sediments on coastal wetlands, but suggest that a climate-driven shift from S. alterniflora to A. germinans in the MRDC will not necessarily alter hurricane sediment capture.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Ocean connectivity drives trophic support for consumers in an intermittently closed coastal lagoon

Estuarine food webs are complex, as marine, freshwater, and terrestrial inputs combine and contribute variable amounts of organic material. Seasonal fluctuations in precipitation amplify the dynamism inherent to estuarine food webs, particularly in lagoonal estuaries, which can be seasonally closed and disconnected from the ocean in low-runoff periods (bar-built lagoons). Despite their abundance along coastlines in Mediterranean climates, the organic matter sources fueling bar-built lagoon food webs are poorly understood, particularly with respect to seasonal hydrologic variability, episodic marine connections, and internal nutrient cycling. In this study, we evaluate the food web of a bar-built lagoon with respect to seasonal differences in lagoon water quality, the sources of organic matter which support consumers, and the trophic ecology of resident fishes. Observed water quality conditions reflected biogeochemical processes associated with salinity-driven stratification and high lagoon residence times and were associated with strong seasonal differences in the contribution of different organic matter sources to lagoon consumers. A variety of organic matter sources supported consumers; marine inputs were important to lagoon food webs in spring when the lagoon was open, while summer food webs were largely driven by phytoplankton which was likely fueled by internal nutrient cycling. Fish diets were largely comprised of crustaceans and fish eggs, with clearly defined trophic niches in spring but high overlap in summer. This study demonstrates that the seasonal changes in bar-built lagoon food webs are largely dependent on ocean connectivity and internal cycling within the lagoon, rather than watershed processes as is typical for many estuaries.

California↗
USGS2017

Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA

Study region The study region spans coastal California, USA, and focuses on three primary sites: Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon. Study focus 1 m and 2 m sea-level rise (SLR) projections were used to assess vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling at select low-lying, coastal sites in California. Separate and combined inundation scenarios for SLR and groundwater emergence were developed using digital elevation models of study site topography and groundwater surfaces constructed from well data or published groundwater level contours. New hydrological insights for the region SLR impacts are a serious concern in coastal California which has a long (∼1800 km) and populous coastline. Information on the possible importance of SLR-driven groundwater inundation in California is limited. In this study, the potential for SLR-driven groundwater inundation at three sites (Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon) was investigated under 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios. These sites provide insight into the vulnerability of Northern California coastal plains, coastal developments built on beach sand or sand spits, and developed areas around coastal lagoons associated with seasonal streams and berms. Northern California coastal plains with abundant shallow groundwater likely will see significant and widespread groundwater emergence, while impacts along the much drier central and southern California coast may be less severe due to the absence of shallow groundwater in many areas. Vulnerability analysis is hampered by the lack of data on shallow coastal aquifers, which commonly are not studied because they are not suitable for domestic or agricultural use. Shallow saline aquifers may be present in many areas along coastal California, which would dramatically increase vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling. Improved understanding of the extent and response of California coastal aquifers to SLR will help in preparing for mitigation and adaptation.

California↗
USGS2024

Non-native Rhizophora mangle as sinks for coastal contamination on Moloka'i, Hawai'i

Coastal mangrove forests provide a suite of environmental services, including sequestration of anthropogenic contamination. Yet, research lags on the environmental fate and potential human health risks of mangrove-sequestered contaminants in the context of mangrove removal for development and range shifts due to climate change. To address this, we conducted a study on Moloka'i, Hawai'i, comparing microplastic and pesticide contamination in coastal compartments both at areas modified by non-native red mangroves ( Rhizophora mangle ) and unmodified, open coastline. Sediment, porewater, and mangrove plant tissues were collected to quantify microplastic and pesticide concentrations across ecosystem type. Average microplastics were similar between mangrove (8.89 items/kg) and non-mangrove areas (9.01 items/kg) in sediment and porewater, but mangrove roots were a substantial reservoir of microplastics (2004 items/kg). Additionally, there was a strong relationship between proximity to urban development and microplastics detected. Six pesticides were detected, most commonly the insecticide bifenthrin, found in most sediment samples (11.3 ng/g), all root samples (243.3 ng/g), and one propagule sample (8.60 ng/g). Other pesticides detected with appreciable concentrations include the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid and the legacy insecticide transformation product, p,p’-DDE. The other detections, all at concentrations < 1 ng/g, were p,p’-DDT, trifluralin, and permethrin. The high concentrations of bifenthrin in roots compared to lower concentrations detected in sediment suggest that mangrove roots strongly accumulate some pesticides, indicating mangrove roots as a sink for organic contaminants. Study methods could be applied to other Hawaiian Islands and other locations where mangroves have been introduced to further examine the observed trends. Additional information is needed to investigate the fate and cycling of pesticides and microplastics adhered to mangrove roots, to better inform non-native mangrove removal efforts on Moloka'i and elsewhere.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Giardia and Cryptosporidium in resident wildlife species in Arctic Alaska

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are zoonotic protozoan parasites that can infect humans and other taxa, including wildlife, often causing gastrointestinal illness. Both have been identified as One Health priorities in the Arctic, where climate change is expected to influence the distribution of many wildlife and zoonotic diseases, but little is known about their prevalence in local wildlife. To help fill information gaps, we collected fecal samples from four wildlife species that occur seasonally on the northern Alaska coastline or in nearshore marine waters—Arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ), polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ), Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus )—and used immunofluorescence assays to screen for Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts. We detected Giardia cysts in 18.3% and Cryptosporidium oocysts in 16.5% of Arctic foxes ( n = 109), suggesting that foxes may be potentially important hosts in this region. We also detected Giardia cysts in a single polar bear (12.5%; n = 8), which to our knowledge represents the first such report for this species. Neither parasite was detected in walruses or caribou.

Food and Waterborne Parasitology↗
USGS2010

Influence of sea level rise on iron diagenesis in an east Florida subterranean estuary

Subterranean estuary occupies the transition zone between hypoxic fresh groundwater and oxic seawater, and between terrestrial and marine sediment deposits. Consequently, we hypothesize, in a subterranean estuary, biogeochemical reactions of Fe respond to submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and sea level rise. Porewater and sediment samples were collected across a 30-m wide freshwater discharge zone of the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, USA) subterranean estuary, and at a site 250 m offshore. Porewater Fe concentrations range from 0.5 μM at the shoreline and 250 m offshore to about 286 μM at the freshwater–saltwater boundary. Sediment sulfur and porewater sulfide maxima occur in near-surface OC-rich black sediments of marine origin, and dissolved Fe maxima occur in underlying OC-poor orange sediments of terrestrial origin. Freshwater SGD flow rates decrease offshore from around 1 to 0.1 cm/day, while bioirrigation exchange deepens with distance from about 10 cm at the shoreline to about 40 cm at the freshwater–saltwater boundary. DOC concentrations increase from around 75 μM at the shoreline to as much as 700 μM at the freshwater–saltwater boundary as a result of labile marine carbon inputs from marine SGD. This labile DOC reduces Fe-oxides, which in conjunction with slow discharge of SGD at the boundary, allows dissolved Fe to accumulate. Upward advection of fresh SGD carries dissolved Fe from the Fe-oxide reduction zone to the sulfate reduction zone, where dissolved Fe precipitates as Fe-sulfides. Saturation models of Fe-sulfides indicate some fractions of these Fe-sulfides get dissolved near the sediment–water interface, where bioirrigation exchanges oxic surface water. The estimated dissolved Fe flux is approximately 0.84 μM Fe/day per meter of shoreline to lagoon surface waters. Accelerated sea level rise predictions are thus likely to increase the Fe flux to surface waters and local primary productivity, particularly along coastlines where groundwater discharges through sediments.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2008

Processes of coastal bluff erosion in weakly lithified sands, Pacifica, California, USA

Coastal bluff erosion and landsliding are currently the major geomorphic processes sculpting much of the marine terrace dominated coastline of northern California. In this study, we identify the spatial and temporal processes responsible for erosion and landsliding in an area of weakly lithified sand coastal bluffs located south of San Francisco, California. Using the results of a five year observational study consisting of site visits, terrestrial lidar scanning, and development of empirical failure indices, we identify the lithologic and process controls that determine the failure mechanism and mode for coastal bluff retreat in this region and present concise descriptions of each process. Bluffs composed of weakly cemented sands (unconfined compressive strength - UCS between 5 and 30??kPa) fail principally due to oversteepening by wave action with maximum slope inclinations on the order of 65 at incipient failure. Periods of significant wave action were identified on the basis of an empirical wave run-up equation, predicting failure when wave run-up exceeds the seasonal average value and the bluff toe elevation. The empirical relationship was verified through recorded observations of failures. Bluffs composed of moderately cemented sands (UCS up to 400??kPa) fail due to precipitation-induced groundwater seepage, which leads to tensile strength reduction and fracture. An empirical rainfall threshold was also developed to predict failure on the basis of a 48-hour cumulative precipitation index but was found to be dependent on a time delay in groundwater seepage in some cases.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2012

The influence of upper-crust lithology on topographic development in the central Coast Ranges of California

A fundamental geological tenet is that as landscapes evolve over graded to geologic time, geologic structures control patterns of topographic distribution in mountainous areas such that terrain underlain by competent rock will be higher than terrain underlain by incompetent rock. This paper shows that in active orogens where markedly weak and markedly strong rocks are juxtaposed along contacts that parallel regional structures, relatively high topography can form where strain is localized in the weak rock. Such a relationship is illustrated by the topography of the central Coast Ranges between the Pacific coastline and the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ), and along the length of the Gabilan Mesa (the “Gabilan Mesa segment” of the central Coast Ranges). Within the Gabilan Mesa segment, the granitic upper crust of the Salinian terrane is in contact with the accretionary-prism mélange upper crust of the Nacimiento terrane along the inactive Nacimiento fault zone. A prominent topographic lineament is present along most of this lithologic boundary, approximately 50 to 65 km southwest of the SAFZ, with the higher topography formed in the mélange on the southwest side of the Nacimiento fault. This paper investigates factors influencing the pattern of topographic development in the Gabilan Mesa segment of the central Coast Ranges by correlating shortening magnitude with the upper-crust compositions of the Salinian and Nacimiento terranes. The fluvial geomorphology of two valleys in the Gabilan Mesa, which is within the Salinian terrane, and alluvial geochronology based on optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) age estimates, reveal that the magnitude of shortening accommodated by down-to-the-southwest tilting of the mesa since 400 ka is less than 1 to 2 m. Our results, combined with those of previous studies, indicate that at least 63% to 78% of late-Cenozoic, northeast–southwest directed, upper-crustal shortening across the Gabilan Mesa segment has been accommodated within the Nacimiento terrane. This is significant because perpendicular to orogenic strike the Nacimiento terrane constitutes less than ¼ of the distance between the coast and the SAFZ, and the other ¾ (or greater) of the distance between the coast and the SAFZ is underlain by the granitic upper crust of the Salinian terrane. We propose that strain and mountain building are localized within the Nacimiento terrane because it consists predominantly of the relatively weak Franciscan Complex mélange, and because the upper crust of the Salinian terrane is composed of relatively strong granitic rocks. Our hypothesis is supported by the distribution of post-seismic surface uplift associated with the 2003, 6.5 M W San Simeon earthquake, which mimics the topography of the southwestern part of the Gabilan Mesa segment of the central Coast Ranges.

California↗
USGS2012

Tectonic influences on the preservation of marine terraces: Old and new evidence from Santa Catalina Island, California

The California Channel Islands contain some of the best geologic records of past climate and sea-level changes, recorded in uplifted, fossil-bearing marine terrace deposits. Among the eight California Channel Islands and the nearby Palos Verdes Hills, only Santa Catalina Island does not exhibit prominent emergent marine terraces, though the same terrace-forming processes that acted on the other Channel Islands must also have occurred on Santa Catalina. We re-evaluated previous researchers' field evidence and examined new topographic, bathymetric, and stream-profile data in order to find possible explanations for the lack of obvious marine terrace landforms or deposits on the island today. The most likely explanation is associated with the island's unresolved tectonic history, with evidence for both recent uplift and subsidence being offered by different researchers. Bathymetric and seismic reflection data indicate the presence of submerged terrace-like landforms from a few meters below present sea level to depths far exceeding that of the lowest glacial lowstand, suggesting that the Catalina Island block may have subsided, submerging marine terraces that would have formed in the late Quaternary. Similar submerged marine terrace landforms exist offshore of all of the other California Channel Islands, including some at anomalously great depths, but late Quaternary uplift is well documented on those islands. Therefore, such submarine features must be more thoroughly investigated and adequately explained before they can be accepted as definitive evidence of subsidence. Nevertheless, the striking similarity of the terrace-like features around Santa Catalina Island to those surrounding the other, uplifting, Channel Islands prompted us to investigate other lines of evidence of tectonic activity, such as stream profile data. Recent uplift is suggested by disequilibrium stream profiles on the western side of the island, including nickpoints and profile convexities. Rapid uplift is also indicated by the island's highly dissected, steep topography and abundant landslides. A likely cause of uplift is a restraining bend in the offshore Catalina strike-slip fault. Our analysis suggests that Santa Catalina Island has recently experienced, and may still be experiencing, relatively rapid uplift, causing intense landscape rejuvenation that removed nearly all traces of marine terraces by erosion. A similar research approach, incorporating submarine as well as subaerial geomorphic data, could be applied to many tectonically active coastlines in which a marine terrace record appears to be missing.

California↗
USGS2023

Wave runup and inundation dynamics on a perched beach

Sandy beaches perched over rocky shore platforms are common globally, yet their mixed sand and rocky morphology present challenges for quantifying and predicting wave runup and inundation. For typical linear beach profiles, simple relationships can be made between vertical runup and horizontal inundation based on beach slope. However, as topographic irregularities increase, substantial deviations from these relationships can occur. Shore platforms often experience a range of beach states, from full sand coverage (accreted) to complete shore platform erosion (exposed). As a result, existing methods for quantifying runup and inundation on purely sandy beaches are generally not directly applicable to these coastlines. To advance our understanding of runup and inundation on perched beaches, the aim of this work is three-fold: (1) to provide a method for quantifying beach slope and runup across a range of perched beach profiles, (2) to assess the relationship between vertical runup and horizontal inundation observations, and (3) to understand how different hydrodynamic mechanisms (i.e., setup, swash) contribute to runup during different beach states. To achieve this, we conducted an 8-month field study along a perched beach in southwestern Australia that experiences large seasonal variations in beach state and wave climate. A method was developed to measure runup and beach slope when only the topography shoreward of the shore platform edge was known. Using this method, an approximately linear relationship between inundation and runup was identified by incorporating beach slope. Our observations suggest that the components that dominate runup on perched beaches were primarily dependent on beach state (i.e., accreted versus exposed). Runup was dominated by swash in the infragravity band when in an accreted beach state, and setup when in an exposed beach state. These results aid our understanding of coastal processes on perched beaches, while providing new methods applicable to a range of perched beach profiles.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2017

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2018

Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure a s a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2025

National population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to earthquake-generated tsunami threats

Previous efforts to characterize tsunami threats to people have focused primarily on individual scenarios in specific areas but have not recognized multiple scenarios across an entire country. This study addresses this gap by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to 102 earthquake-related, tsunami-hazard zones, including 92 local scenarios, 8 distant scenarios, and 2 probabilistic products. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential and the influence of departure delays. We focused on residents to support other national, multi-hazard risk analyses. Millions of residents are in distant-tsunami zones, and hundreds of thousands of residents are in local-tsunami zones. In 41 scenarios, there is at least one resident that may have insufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Tens of thousands of residents may have insufficient time to evacuate from local tsunamis that impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Puerto Rican coastlines. The largest improvements in evacuation potential may come from reducing departure delays in some areas but may involve vertical-evacuation structures or changing land use in other areas.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2015

Sea otter health: challenging a pet hypothesis

A recent series of studies on tagged sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) challenges the hypothesis that sea otters are sentinels of a dirty ocean, in particular, that pet cats are the main source of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in central California. Counter to expectations, sea otters from unpopulated stretches of coastline are less healthy and more exposed to parasites than city-associated otters. Ironically, now it seems that spillover from wildlife, not pets, dominates spatial patterns of disease transmission.

International Journal for Parasitology: Parasites ↗