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USGS2017

A comparison of honey bee-collected pollen from working agricultural lands using light microscopy and ITS metabarcoding

Taxonomic identification of pollen has historically been accomplished via light microscopy but requires specialized knowledge and reference collections, particularly when identification to lower taxonomic levels is necessary. Recently, next-generation sequencing technology has been used as a cost-effective alternative for identifying bee-collected pollen; however, this novel approach has not been tested on a spatially or temporally robust number of pollen samples. Here, we compare pollen identification results derived from light microscopy and DNA sequencing techniques with samples collected from honey bee colonies embedded within a gradient of intensive agricultural landscapes in the Northern Great Plains throughout the 2010–2011 growing seasons. We demonstrate that at all taxonomic levels, DNA sequencing was able to discern a greater number of taxa, and was particularly useful for the identification of infrequently detected species. Importantly, substantial phenological overlap did occur for commonly detected taxa using either technique, suggesting that DNA sequencing is an appropriate, and enhancing, substitutive technique for accurately capturing the breadth of bee-collected species of pollen present across agricultural landscapes. We also show that honey bees located in high and low intensity agricultural settings forage on dissimilar plants, though with overlap of the most abundantly collected pollen taxa. We highlight practical applications of utilizing sequencing technology, including addressing ecological issues surrounding land use, climate change, importance of taxa relative to abundance, and evaluating the impact of conservation program habitat enhancement efforts.

Environmental Entomology↗

USGS2024

Utility of an instantaneous salt dilution method for measuring streamflow in headwater streams

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

Virginia↗

USGS2009

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

International Watershed Technology: Improving Water Quality and Quantity at the Local, Basin, and Regional Scales

This article introduces the five papers in the “International Watershed Technology” collection. These papers were selected from 60 technical presentations at the fifth biennial ASABE 21st Century Watershed Technology Conference and Workshop: Improving the Quality of Water Resources at Local, Basin, and Regional Scales, held in Quito, Ecuador, on 3-9 December 2016. The conference focused on solving spatial and temporal water quality and quantity problems and addressed topics such as watershed management in developing countries, aquatic ecology and ecohydrology, ecosystem services, climate change mitigation strategies, flood forecasting, remote sensing, and water resource policy and management. While diverse, the presentation topics reflected the continuing evolution of the “data mining” and “big data” themes of past conferences related to geospatial data applications, with increasing emphasis on practical solutions. The papers selected for this collection represent applications of spatial data analyses toward practical ends with a theme of “tools and techniques for sustainability.” The papers address a range of topics, including the matching of crops with water availability, and assessing the environmental impacts of agricultural production. The papers identify some of the latest tools and techniques for improving sustainability in watershed resource management that are relevant to both developing and developed countries.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

USGS2012

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2013

Phenology monitoring protocol: Northeast Temperate Network

Phenology is critical to many aspects of human life and nearly all ecological relationships and processes. Recent climate change has already led to widespread changes in phenological patterns across the globe, and more change is inevitable. This protocol has been developed to provide standardized methods for monitoring phenology within the National Park Service (NPS) Northeast Temperate Network (NETN), as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M). NETN encompasses the Appalachian National Scenic Trail (APPA), Acadia National Park (ACAD), the Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA), and 10 national historical parks and national historic sites in the northeastern US. This protocol was developed in collaboration with and relies upon the procedures and infrastructure of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), including Nature’s Notebook , USA-NPN’s online plant and animal phenology observation program (www.nn.usanpn.org). Organized in 2007, USA-NPN is a nation-wide partnership among federal agencies, schools and universities, citizen volunteers, and others to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the nation’s biological resources. The overall goal of NETN’s phenology monitoring program is to determine trends in the phenology of key species in order to assist park managers with the detection and mitigation of the effects of climate change on park resources. An additional programmatic goal is to interest and educate park visitors and staff, as well as a cadre of volunteer monitors.

National Park Service Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2017

Potential concerns with analytical Methods Used for the detection of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans from archived DNA of amphibian swab samples, Oregon, USA

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Ecology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities

In this chapter we will review and evaluate the climatic and ecological parallels between urbanization and climate change, with an emphasis on temperature and its effects on terrestrial ectotherms, a group of organisms thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change. We will summarize patterns of urban warming and how they relate to global climate change projections, then discuss the potential strengths and limitations of urban climates as a source of insight into biotic responses to climate change and highlight future research directions. Future work will benefit from explicit consideration of the mechanisms by which urbanization and urban warming drive ectotherms’ body temperatures and activity periods. Urban ecosystems may provide a valuable first approximation of the dramatic effects of warming on certain terrestrial systems, and continued advances in urban thermal biology will promote a mechanistic understanding of how organisms use, respond to, and adapt to the unique thermal landscapes of cities.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Scale-appropriate adaptation strategies and actions in the Northeast and Midwest United States

Climate Change Adaptation is a growing field within conservation and natural resource management. Actions taken toward climate change adaptation account for climate impacts and ecological responses, both current and projected into the future. These actions attempt to accomplish a number of goals, including the conservation of wildlife and ecosystems by reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Climate change adaptation strategies and approaches for natural resources can be thought of as part of a continuum of potential actions ranging from 1) options or goals to 2) strategies, 3) approaches, and 4) tactics. There are a range of decision support tools and processes to aid climate change adaptation. This document highlights several including the Adaptation Workbook, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments, Structured Decision Making, Adaptive Resource Management, and Scenario Planning. It will also provide case studies on the application of these tools across the Northeast and Midwest. Improved, better-integrated, and increasingly coordinated monitoring systems would be helpful to detect, track, and attribute species and habitat shifts to climate change over spatiotemporal scales. We highlight regional examples of projects and programs addressing these challenges. Illustrative case studies of climate change adaptation efforts are presented across landscape/ecoregion, state, and local scales. Appendix 4.1 provides a synthesis of over 900 general, species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and tactics from 9 regional studies being considered or implemented across the region. The study of climate change adaptation is a relatively new and rapidly growing field focused on preparing for and responding to the current and future impacts of climate change. The goal of this chapter is to highlight different approaches, processes, and tools currently being used across the region through illustrative case studies at varying scales. In addition, we provide a synthesis of numerous species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and actions from existing assessment reports and management plans, which is intended to showcase a range of possibilities for natural resource management under future global change. This report does not prescribe one specific approach to taking action; instead, we outline a range of adaptation 5 tactics, which will require thoughtful consideration of the needs of the species, habitat, and location, the stakeholders and partners involved, the scale that a decision or policy is being implemented at, and the financial and personnel resources available to managers.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗

USGS2019

Flow alteration-ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams: Consequences for fish, crayfish and macroinvertebrate assemblages

We examined flow alteration-ecology relationships in benthic macroinvertebrate , fish, and crayfish assemblages in Ozark Highland streams, USA, over two years with contrasting environmental conditions, a drought year (2012) and a flood year (2013). We hypothesized that: 1) there would be temporal variation in flow alteration-ecology relationships between the two years, 2) flow alteration-ecology relationships would be stronger during the drought year vs the flood year, and 3) fish assemblages would show the strongest relationships with flow alteration. We used a quantitative richest-targeted habitat (RTH) method and a qualitative multi-habitat (QMH) method to collect macroinvertebrates at 16 USGS gaged sites during both years. We used backpack electrofishing to sample fish and crayfish at 17 sites in 2012 and 11 sites in 2013. We used redundancy analysis to relate biological response metrics, including richness, diversity, density, and community-based metrics, to flow alteration. We found temporal variation in flow alteration-ecology relationships for all taxa, and that relationships differed greatly between assemblages. We found relationships were stronger for macroinvertebrates during the drought year but not for other assemblages, and that fish assemblage relationships were not stronger than the invertebrate taxa. Magnitude of average flow, frequency of high flow, magnitude of high flow, and duration of high flow were the most important categories of flow alteration metrics across taxa. Alteration of high and average flows was more important than alteration of low flows. Of 32 important flow alteration metrics across years and assemblages, 19 were significantly altered relative to expected values. Ecological responses differed substantially between drought and flood years, and this is likely to be exacerbated with predicted climate change scenarios. Differences in flow alteration-ecology relationships among taxonomic groups and temporal variation in relationships illustrate that a complex suite of variables should be considered for effective conservation of stream communities related to flow alteration.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2019

Where has turtle ecology been, and where is it going?

Over 9000 articles have been published on turtles and tortoises (excluding sea turtles) since 1950 according to the Web of Science, including over 8000 contained in a personal bibliography that we analyze in this paper. Research had a slow start from 1900 to 1950, with mostly anecdotal additions to our knowledge until the contributions of F. Cagle and A. Carr took turtle research to new levels as the cofathers of turtle ecology in the middle of the last century. Books written in 1939, 1952, and 1972 that compiled existing literature on turtles in the United States and Canada set the stage for growing interest in turtles. The first global compilation of turtle species did not become available until 1961. Publication frequency increased in the 1960s and especially the 1970s as interest in turtles grew, and a wave of turtle biologists emerged from doctoral degree programs. We briefly review the contributions of scientists who published extensively on turtle ecology in those and later decades up to the present. We also review advances in our knowledge of various topics, including the global distribution of turtle research efforts; changes in our perceptions of turtle species diversity over time; turtle community ecology; sex ratios, sex-determination, and climate change; overwintering behavior; sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism; analyses of population genetics; turtles and vocalization; and the emergence of turtle conservation biology efforts. We conclude with a discussion of future opportunities and challenges for working with turtles.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2012

Land-cover change detection

Land cover is the biophysical material on the surface of the earth. Land-cover types include grass, shrubs, trees, barren, water, and man-made features. Land cover changes continuously. The rate of change can be either dramatic and abrupt, such as the changes caused by logging, hurricanes and fire, or subtle and gradual, such as regeneration of forests and damage caused by insects (Verbesselt et al., 2001). Previous studies have shown that land cover has changed dramatically during the past sevearal centuries and that these changes have severely affected our ecosystems (Foody, 2010; Lambin et al., 2001). Lambin and Strahlers (1994b) summarized five types of cause for land-cover changes: (1) long-term natural changes in climate conditions, (2) geomorphological and ecological processes, (3) human-induced alterations of vegetation cover and landscapes, (4) interannual climate variability, and (5) human-induced greenhouse effect. Tools and techniques are needed to detect, describe, and predict these changes to facilitate sustainable management of natural resources.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Methodology for an integrative assessment of China's ecological restoration programs

While research projects have been conducted to examine the impacts and effectiveness of China's ecological restoration programs, few of them represent integrated, systematic efforts. The objective of this chapter is thus to articulate and outline a methodology for an integrative assessment, which, we believe, should embrace both the environmental and socioeconomic changes and engage investigations at multiple scales. Further, these investigations should be pursued through interdisciplinary collaboration with expertise from ecology, economics, hydrology, and geospatial, climate, and land change sciences. We argue that the deployment of geospatial capability, the use of longitudinal data, and the connection between science and policy should be the hallmarks of an integrative assessment. We also describe our general approach and specific models to quantify the environmental and socioeconomic impacts induced by implementing the restoration programs, and address the issue of how to overcome the challenges in generating the data needed for executing various empirical tasks. We hope that the adoption and application of this methodology will make a valuable contribution to a more robust and timely assessment as well as implementation of the ecological restoration programs in and outside of China.

Book chapter↗

USGS1995

USGS global change research

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2015

Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2017

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission. Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [ Cervus Canadensis ] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts. Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands. Synthesis and applications . Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2014

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species–climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep clines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah↗