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USGS2015

A collision risk model to predict avian fatalities at wind facilities: an example using golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year -1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year -1 ) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80 th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2018

Prey fish returned to Forster’s tern colonies suggest spatial and temporal differences in fish composition and availability

Predators sample the available prey community when foraging; thus, changes in the environment may be reflected by changes in predator diet and foraging preferences. We examined Forster’s tern ( Sterna forsteri ) prey species over an 11-year period by sampling approximately 10,000 prey fish returned to 17 breeding colonies in south San Francisco Bay, California. We compared the species composition among repeatedly-sampled colonies (≥ 4 years), using both relative species abundance and the composition of total dry mass by species. Overall, the relative abundances of prey species at seven repeatedly-sampled tern colonies were more different than would be expected by chance, with the most notable differences in relative abundance observed between geographically distant colonies. In general, Mississippi silverside ( Menidia audens ) and topsmelt silverside ( Atherinops affinis ) comprised 42% of individuals and 40% of dry fish mass over the study period. Three-spined stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) comprised the next largest proportion of prey species by individuals (19%) but not by dry mass (6%). Five additional species each contributed ≥ 4% of total individuals collected over the study period: yellowfin goby ( Acanthogobius flavimanus ; 10%), longjaw mudsucker ( Gillichthys mirabilis ; 8%), Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ; 6%), northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ; 4%), and staghorn sculpin ( Leptocottus armatus ; 4%). At some colonies, the relative abundance and biomass of specific prey species changed over time. In general, the abundance and dry mass of silversides increased, whereas the abundance and dry mass of three-spined stickleback and longjaw mudsucker decreased. As central place foragers, Forster’s terns are limited in the distance they forage; thus, changes in the prey species returned to Forster’s tern colonies suggest that the relative availability of some fish species in the environment has changed, possibly in response to alteration of the available habitat.

California↗

USGS2015

Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards

ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Movements of walruses radio-tagged in Bristol Bay, Alaska

Satellite radio-location data from 57 adult male Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) were used to estimate haul-out fidelity, broadly describe seasonal foraging distributions, and determine the approximate timing of autumn migration from Bristol Bay, Alaska. Data were collected intermittently during 1987–91 and 1995–2000, primarily during the period from May to October. Transmitter longevity ranged from less than 1 day to 560 days (median 75 d). The four tagging sites were the only haul-outs that were commonly used in the bay from spring through autumn. Mean fidelity, defined as the chance that an animal will return to an area where it previously hauled out, was 0.56 (SE = 0.09). However, small sample sizes precluded comparisons of fidelity among years and among haul-outs by season. No tagged animals migrated out of the bay between spring and early autumn. Combined monthly locations suggest that foraging occurred primarily in the southern and eastern areas of the bay in spring and gradually shifted towards northwestern areas in late autumn and winter. Ninety-eight percent of the in-water locations were in waters under 60 m deep, which account for 76% of the study area. Some animals migrated out of the bay in late autumn and winter; others remained within the bay throughout the year. Those making long-range migrations departed the bay during November and December.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Movements and activity of juvenile Brown Treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis )

Understanding the spatial ecology and foraging strategy of invasive animals is essential for success in control or eradication. We studied movements and activity in juvenile Brown Treesnakes on Guam, as this population segment has proven particularly difficult to control. Distance between daytime refugia (from telemetry of 18 juveniles, 423-800 mm snout-vent length) ranged from 0-118 m ( n = 86), with a grand mean of 43 m. There were tendencies for shorter snake movements on nights directly following a full moon and on dry nights, but variation among snakes was of a larger magnitude and would greatly reduce chances to detect moon or rain effects unless corrected for. Snake activity was estimated from audio recordings of signals from “tipping” radio transmitters, analyzed for pulse period and amplitude. Activity was highest in the hours immediately after sunset, and gradually declined throughout the night before dropping abruptly in conjunction with sunrise. Snake activity was higher on rainy nights, and tended to be highest during waning moons and when the moon was below the horizon. We conclude that small Brown Treesnakes forage actively and appear to move far enough to regularly encounter the traps and bait used on Guam for control purposes, suggesting that alternative explanations are required for their low capture rates with these control tools.

Copeia↗

USGS2016

Wintering Sandhill Crane exposure to wind energy development in the central and southern Great Plains, USA

Numerous wind energy projects have been constructed in the central and southern Great Plains, USA, the main wintering area for midcontinental Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis). In an initial assessment of the potential risks of wind towers to cranes, we estimated spatial overlap, investigated potential avoidance behavior, and determined the habitat associations of cranes. We used data from cranes marked with platform transmitting terminals (PTTs) with and without global positioning system (GPS) capabilities. We estimated the wintering distributions of PTT-marked cranes prior to the construction of wind towers, which we compared with current tower locations. Based on this analysis, we found 7% spatial overlap between the distributions of cranes and towers. When we looked at individually marked cranes, we found that 52% would have occurred within 10 km of a tower at some point during winter. Using data from cranes marked after tower construction, we found a potential indication of avoidance behavior, whereby GPS-marked cranes generally used areas slightly more distant from existing wind towers than would be expected by chance. Results from a habitat selection model suggested that distances between crane locations and towers may have been driven more by habitat selection than by avoidance, as most wind towers were constructed in locations not often selected by wintering cranes. Our findings of modest regional overlap and that few towers have been placed in preferred crane habitat suggest that the current distribution of wind towers may be of low risk to the continued persistence of wintering midcontinental Sandhill Cranes in the central and southern Great Plains.

Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2021

Effects of diet and provisioning behavior on chick growth in Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae)

When provisioning chicks, parents trade-off their time, energy, and other resources to maximize reproductive success. As parents adjust investment to maximize their fitness, impacts on offspring growth can occur. We investigated provisioning and chick growth of Adélie Penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) at one of the largest colonies (∼175,000 pairs), during one year of normal chick growth and survival and in a year which, by chance, was characterized by low chick growth and survival (“difficult” year). We measured daily average amount and quality of food delivered, as well as foraging-trip duration, and compared them to chick mass and skeletal growth during two years of contrasting conditions. We used mixed-effects models to test the prediction that increased parental investment would lead to increased growth rates, while accounting for confounding effects. There was no evidence of an effect of parent age. All provisioning measures predicted growth of at least one morphological character but, especially during the year of normal reproductive success, no provisioning measure strongly predicted growth across most morphological characters. However, during the difficult year parental investment positively affected growth rates, especially for males that were fed relatively more fish. The observed variation in growth rates between males and females, and between years of contrasting apparent resource availability, was large enough to lead to size differences that may subsequently affect post-fledging survival and ultimately population processes.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2005

Birds of the Baja California Peninsula: Status, distribution, and taxonomy

Birds of the Baja California Peninsula: Status, Distribution, and Taxonomy. By Richard A. Erickson and Steve N. G. Howell (Eds.). American Birding Association Monographs in Field Ornithology No. 3, Colorado Springs, Colorado. 2001: 261 pp. ISBN: 1878788396. $39.95 (paper). This volume is a collection of eight papers and five appendices on the status and distribution of the birds of Baja California. In the preface, the editors lament the end of an era of "frontier" birding in Baja California brought on by the publication of this volume. While discoveries of new species are certain to decline with time, I suspect that interest in birding and ornithology in Baja California will be enhanced by the information contained in this book. Perhaps the "frontier" era that Erickson and Howell lament the end of is the unbirded, wide open spaces and the chance for making new discoveries.

Baja California Peninsula↗

USGS2010

Flexibility in nest-site choice and nesting success of Turdus rufiventris (Turdidae) in a montane forest in northwestern argentina

We studied the consequences of nest-site choice on nesting success under differing disturbance levels for the Rufous-bellied Thrush (Turdus rufiventris). We compared nest-site choice and nest success between a disturbed site and an undisturbed site in a montane subtropical forest in northwestern Argentina. We found no overall difference in daily predation rate (DPR) between the disturbed and undisturbed sites. However, DPR of nests on bromeliads was significantly lower at the microhabitat level than on other types of subtrates at the disturbed site. T. rufiventris used bromeliads for nesting more often than expected by chance at the disturbed site. DPR did not differ between substrates at the undisturbed site and T. rufiventris used all substrates according to their availability. Nests had higher predation at the disturbed site when DPR on non-bromeliad substrates was compared between disturbed and undisturbed sites. Nest fate was independent of nest height. Our results suggest T. rufiventris' flexibility in nest-site choice, as reflected by increased use of the safest sites, i.e., bromeliads, in the disturbed site compared to the undisturbed site, may allow this species to survive in an otherwise much riskier habitat. Our results illustrate how microhabitat-scale effects can mediate landscape scale effects. ?? 2010 by the Wilson Ornithological Society.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2015

Observation of sandhill cranes' ( Grus canadensis ) flight behavior in heavy fog

The behaviors of birds flying in low visibility conditions remain poorly understood. We had the opportunity to monitor Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis) flying in heavy fog with very low visibility during a comprehensive landscape use study of refuging cranes in the Horicon Marsh in southeastern Wisconsin. As part of the study, we recorded flight patterns of cranes with a portable marine radar at various locations and times of day, and visually counted cranes as they departed the roost in the morning. We compared flight patterns during a fog event with those recorded during clear conditions. In good visibility, cranes usually departed the night roost shortly after sunrise and flew in relatively straight paths toward foraging areas. In fog, cranes departed the roost later in the day, did not venture far from the roost, engaged in significantly more circling flight, and returned to the roost site rather than proceeding to foraging areas. We also noted that compared to mornings with good visibility, cranes flying in fog called more frequently than usual. The only time in this 2-year study that observers heard young of the year calling was during the fog event. The observed behavior of cranes circling and lingering in an area while flying in poor visibility conditions suggests that such situations may increase chances of colliding with natural or anthropogenic obstacles in the vicinity.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2007

Local magnitude determinations for intermountain seismic belt earthquakes from broadband digital data

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) earthquake catalogs for the Utah and Yellowstone National Park regions contain two types of size measurements: local magnitude (ML) and coda magnitude (MC), which is calibrated against ML. From 1962 through 1993, UUSS calculated ML values for southern and central Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes using maximum peak-to-peak (p-p) amplitudes on paper records from one to five Wood-Anderson (W-A) seismographs in Utah. For ML determinations of earthquakes since 1994, UUSS has utilized synthetic W-A seismograms from U.S. National Seismic Network and UUSS broadband digital telemetry stations in the region, which numbered 23 by the end of our study period on 30 June 2002. This change has greatly increased the percentage of earthquakes for which ML can be determined. It is now possible to determine ML for all M ???3 earthquakes in the Utah and Yellowstone regions and earthquakes as small as M <1 in some areas. To maintain continuity in the magnitudes in the UUSS earthquake catalogs, we determined empirical ML station corrections that minimize differences between MLs calculated from paper and synthetic W-A records. Application of these station corrections, in combination with distance corrections from Richter (1958) which have been in use at UUSS since 1962, produces ML values that do not show any significant distance dependence. ML determinations for the Utah and Yellowstone regions for 1981-2002 using our station corrections and Richter's distance corrections have provided a reliable data set for recalibrating the MC scales for these regions. Our revised ML values are consistent with available moment magnitude determinations for Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes. To facilitate automatic ML measurements, we analyzed the distribution of the times of maximum p-p amplitudes in synthetic W-A records. A 30-sec time window for maximum amplitudes, beginning 5 sec before the predicted Sg time, encompasses 95% of the maximum p-p amplitudes. In our judgment, this time window represents a good compromise between maximizing the chances of capturing the maximum amplitude and minimizing the risk of including other seismic events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity

Global earthquake activity rate model 1 (GEAR1) estimates the rate of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes 6–9 everywhere on Earth. It was designed to be reproducible and testable. Our preferred hybrid forecast is a log–linear blend of two parent forecasts based on the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog (smoothing 4602 m≥5.767 shallow earthquakes, 1977–2004) and the Global Strain Rate Map version 2.1 (smoothing 22,415 Global Positioning System velocities), optimized to best forecast the 2005–2012 Global CMT catalog. Strain rate is a proxy for fault stress accumulation, and earthquakes indicate stress release, so a multiplicative blend is desirable, capturing the strengths of both approaches. This preferred hybrid forecast outperforms its seismicity and strain‐rate parents; the chance that this improvement stems from random seismicity fluctuations is less than 1%. The preferred hybrid is also tested against the independent parts of the International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model catalog (m≥6.8 during 1918–1976) with similar success. GEAR1 is an update of this preferred hybrid. Comparing GEAR1 to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), net earthquake rates agree within 4% at m≥5.8 and at m≥7.0. The spatial distribution of UCERF3 epicentroids most resembles GEAR1 after UCERF3 is smoothed with a 30 km kernel. Because UCERF3 has been constructed to derive useful information from fault geometry, slip rates, paleoseismic data, and enhanced seismic catalogs (not used in our model), this is encouraging. To build parametric catastrophe bonds from GEAR1, one could calculate the magnitude for which there is a 1% (or any) annual probability of occurrence in local regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we probe the circumstances under which aftershocks can last for 100–1000 years. Basham and Adams (1983) and Ebel et al. (2000) proposed that intraplate seismicity in eastern North America could be aftershocks of mainshocks that struck hundreds of years beforehand, a view consonant with rate–state friction (Dieterich, 1994), in which aftershock duration varies inversely with fault‐stressing rate. To test these hypotheses, we estimate aftershock durations of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku‐Oki rupture at 12 sites up to 250 km from the source, as well as for the near‐fault aftershocks of eight large Japanese mainshocks, sampling faults slipping 0.01 to 80 mm/yr . Whereas aftershock productivity increases with mainshock magnitude, we find that aftershock duration, the time until the aftershock rate decays to the premainshock rate, does not. Instead, aftershock sequences lasted a month on the fastest‐slipping faults and are projected to persist for more than 2000 years on the slowest. Thus, long aftershock sequences can misguide and inflate hazard assessments in intraplate regions if misinterpreted as background seismicity, whereas areas between seismicity clusters may instead harbor a higher chance of large mainshocks, the opposite of what is being assumed today.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Improving earthquake forecasts during swarms with a duration model

Earthquake swarms present a challenge for operational earthquake forecasting because they are driven primarily by transient external processes, such as fluid flow, the behavior and duration of which are difficult to predict. In this study, we develop a swarm duration model to estimate how long a swarm is likely to last based on actuarial statistics of previous swarms in a given region. We demonstrate this approach using swarms that have been identified in the Salton trough in southern California, finding that swarms last an average of ∼ 7 "> ∼ 7 ∼7 days and have a relatively constant 15%–16% chance of terminating each day for the first 14 days of the swarm. Cataloged swarm durations are exponentially distributed, so we use a Poissonian model for swarm termination to encapsulate and extend the actuarial statistics. We then show how using the swarm duration model would have affected the earthquake forecast that was released during the 2016 Bombay Beach swarm. The earthquake forecast is substantially improved by incorporating a probabilistic model for how long the swarm is likely to last.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option

In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M "> M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some background level of hazard or risk, we emphasize that probability gains (the ratio of short‐term to long‐term‐average estimates) might be of particular interest to users. We also illustrate how such gains are highly sensitive to forecast duration and latency, with the latter representing how long it takes to generate the forecast and/or to take action. The influence of fault‐based information, which has traditionally been ignored in OEF, is also evaluated using the newly developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock represents a decent estimate of the ground motions that have a 6% chance of being exceeded due to aftershocks in the week that follows. The ultimate value of these types of OEF products can only be determined in the context of specific uses, and because these vary widely, institutions responsible for providing OEF products will depend heavily on user feedback, especially when making resource‐allocation decisions.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2019

#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media and social media during the Bombay Beach 2016 Swarm

Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake could be triggered. Within 1–2 days, different forecast models were used to evaluate the likelihood of a larger event with two agencies (the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services) releasing probabilities and forecasts for larger earthquakes. Our research explores communication and news media efforts, as well as how people on a microblogging social media site (Twitter) responded to these forecasts. Our findings suggest that news media used a combination of information sources, basing their articles on what they learned from social media, as well as using information provided by government agencies. As the swarm slowed down, there is evidence of the continued interplay between news media and social media, with the USGS issuing revised probability reports and scientists from the USGS and other institutions participating in media interviews. In reporting on the swarm, news media often used language more generally than the scientists; terms such as probability, likelihood, chance, and possibility were used interchangeably. Knowledge of how news media used scientific information from the 2016 Bombay Beach forecasts can assist local, state, and federal agencies in developing effective communication strategies to respond to future earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2020

Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model

The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. It produces ensembles of synthetic aftershock sequences both on and off explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults to answer a key question repeatedly asked during the Ridgecrest sequence: What are the chances that the earthquake that just occurred will turn out to be the foreshock of an even bigger event?

California↗

USGS2022

Prospective and retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey public aftershock forecast for the 2019-2021 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake and aftershocks

The M w "> M w 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was accompanied by a robust fore‐ and aftershock sequence. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued regular aftershock forecasts for more than a year since the mainshock, available on a public webpage. Forecasts were accompanied by interpretive and informational material, published in English and Spanish. Informational products included narrative “scenarios” for how the aftershock sequence could play out, infographics, and a report on the potential duration of the aftershock sequence through the next decade. Forecasts are based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and generated using the USGS AftershockForecaster software—an interactive graphical user interface built on the OpenSHA platform ( Field et al. , 2003 ). The initial forecast is based on past sequences in similar tectonic environments; subsequent forecasts are tuned to the ongoing sequence via Bayesian model updating. Probabilistic aftershock forecasts for the next day, week, month, and year were publicly released and archived at a daily to monthly tempo, allowing for a truly prospective test of the forecast. Here, we evaluate the forecast over the first year of the recorded aftershocks. The ETAS‐based forecast performed well overall, successfully capturing both the chance of having at least one earthquake of a given magnitude in a forecast interval as well as the non‐Poissonian distribution of the total number of aftershocks within an interval. A retrospective analysis shows that the ETAS model is a substantial improvement over the existing Reasenberg and Jones (1989) forecast model. The exercise also reveals some limitations of the current model, in particular, with respect to nonstationarities in the aftershock magnitude distribution and model parameters throughout the evolving sequence.

Puerto Rico↗