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Gravity surveys using a mobile atom interferometer

Mobile gravimetry is important in metrology, navigation, geodesy, and geophysics. Atomic gravimeters could be among the most accurate mobile gravimeters, but are currently constrained by being complex and fragile. Here, we demonstrate a mobile atomic gravimeter, measuring tidal gravity variations in the laboratory as well as surveying gravity in the field. The tidal gravity measurements achieve a sensitivity of 37 μGal/√Hz (1 μGal=10 nm/s2) and a long-term stability of better than 2 μGal, revealing ocean tidal loading effects and recording several distant earthquakes. We survey gravity in the Berkeley Hills with an uncertainty of around 0.04 mGal and determine the density of the subsurface rocks from the vertical gravity gradient. With simplicity and sensitivity, our instrument paves the way for bringing atomic gravimeters to field applications.

Science Advances

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States

Establishing the Antarctic Dome C community reference standard site towards consistent measurements from Earth observation satellites

Establishing satellite measurement consistency by using common desert sites has become increasingly more important not only for climate change detection but also for quantitative retrievals of geophysical variables in satellite applications. Using the Antarctic Dome C site (75°06′S, 123°21′E, elevation 3.2 km) for satellite radiometric calibration and validation (Cal/Val) is of great interest owing to its unique location and characteristics. The site surface is covered with uniformly distributed permanent snow, and the atmospheric effect is small and relatively constant. In this study, the long-term stability and spectral characteristics of this site are evaluated using well-calibrated satellite instruments such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). Preliminary results show that despite a few limitations, the site in general is stable in the long term, the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model works well, and the site is most suitable for the Cal/Val of reflective solar bands in the 0.4–1.0 µm range. It was found that for the past decade, the reflectivity change of the site is within 1.35% at 0.64 µm, and interannual variability is within 2%. The site is able to resolve calibration biases between instruments at a level of ~1%. The usefulness of the site is demonstrated by comparing observations from seven satellite instruments involving four space agencies, including OrbView-2–SeaWiFS, Terra–Aqua MODIS, Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) – Hyperion, Meteorological Operational satellite programme (MetOp) – Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Envisat Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) – dvanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Dome C is a promising candidate site for climate quality calibration of satellite radiometers towards more consistent satellite measurements, as part of the framework for climate change detection and data quality assurance for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing

Thermal, deformation, and degassing remote sensing time-series (A.D. 2000-2017) at the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for volcanic systems

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multi-parameter datasets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America, and compare these datasets to ground-based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program (GVP). This first comparison of multi-satellite time-series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, non-, pre-, syn- and post-eruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite-based capabilities and new instruments.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Fluorine

Fluorine compounds are essential in numerous chemical and manufacturing processes. Fluorspar is the commercial name for fluorite (isometric CaF 2 ), which is the only fluorine mineral that is mined on a large scale. Fluorspar is used directly as a fluxing material and as an additive in different manufacturing processes. It is the source of fluorine in the production of hydrogen fluoride or hydrofluoric acid, which is used as the feedstock for numerous organic and inorganic chemical compounds. The United States was the world’s leading producer of fluorspar until the mid-1950s. In the mid-1970s, the U.S. fluorspar mining industry began to decline because of foreign competition. By 1982, there was essentially only a single U.S. producer left, and that company ceased mining in 1996. Consumption of fluorspar in the United States peaked in the early 1970s, which was also the peak period of U.S. steel production. Since then, U.S. fluorspar consumption has decreased substantially; the United States has nonetheless increased its imports of downstream fluorine compounds, such as, in order of tonnage imported, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, and cryolite. This combination of no U.S. production (until recently) and high levels of consumption has made the United States the world’s leading fluorspar-importing country, in all its various forms. The number of fluorspar-exporting countries has decreased substantially in recent decades, and, as a result, the United States has become dependent on just a few countries to supply its needs. In 2013, the United States imported the majority of its fluorspar from three countries, which were, in descending order of the amount imported, Mexico, China, and South Africa. Geologically, in igneous systems, fluorine is one of a number of elements that are “incompatible.” These incompatible elements become concentrated in the residual magma while the common silicates crystallize upon magma ascent and cooling, leading to relatively high fluorine concentrations in the more evolved or differentiated igneous rocks and in hydrothermal deposits associated with those evolved igneous rocks. In sedimentary rocks, fluorine’s highest concentrations are found in phosphorites because fluorine substitutes for hydroxyl ions in apatite, which leads to fluorine concentrations of, typically, from 2 to 4 weight percent in phosphorites. Because of the presence of fluorine, phosphate fertilizer manufacturers can produce a fluorosilicic acid byproduct. Most deposits mined for fluorine are hydrothermal, however, and consist of fluorine minerals that precipitated from hot water. Magmatic brines and brines from deep within sedimentary basins that have high concentrations of dissolved fluoride are the mineralizing fluids for various types of hydrothermal fluorspar deposits. Relatively dilute hydrothermal fluids that formed in some volcanic rocks can also transport sufficient fluoride to form a high-grade fluorspar deposit. Fluorite has low solubility in a common range of hydrothermal temperatures, particularly from about 160 degrees Celsius (°C) down to 60 °C. The increasing fluorite solubility below 60 °C partly explains why some water with exceptionally high levels of dissolved fluorine are found even at ambient temperatures in evaporitic lake basins in some East African Rift valleys in Kenya and Tanzania. The geologic conditions that led to the high concentrations there are known to exist in a number of other places in the world as well, including, perhaps, places in the Basin and Range province of the United States. Eight minerals or mineral groups have sufficient fluorine in their structures to be considered as possible ores of the element; they are bastnaesite (also spelled bastnäsite; and other fluorocarbonates), cryolite, sellaite, villiaumite, fluorite, fluorapatite (in phosphorites), various phyllosilicates, and topaz. Fluorite is currently the only mineral that is mined for fluorine, and nomineral except fluorite is likely to become a source of commercially produced fluorine as a primary product as long as supplies from relatively thick and high-grade fluorite deposits continue to be available. At least seven classes (which include one subclass) of hydrothermal fluorite deposits are recognized; they are classified according to their tectonic and (or) magmatic settings, as follows: (1) carbonatite-related fluorspar deposits; (2) alkaline-intrusion-related fluorspar deposits; (3) alkaline-volcanic-related epithermal fluorspar deposits; (4) Mississippi Valley-type fluorspar deposits (and a subclass of salt-related carbonate-hosted fluorspar deposits); (5) fluorspar deposits related to strongly differentiated granites; (6) subalkaline-volcanic-related epithermal fluospar deposits; and (7) fluorspar deposits that appear to be conformable within tuffaceous limy lacustrine sediments. An eighth class (not hydrothermal) is that of fluorspar deposits concentrated in soils and weathered zones; that is, residual fluorspar deposits. Generally, fluorspar deposits related to strongly differentiated granites have larger tonnages and lower grades than carbonatite-related fluorspar deposits, which, in turn, have larger tonnages and lower grades than fluorspar vein deposits from various other classes. The United States has a few identified resources of fluorspar, most notably the Klondike II property in the Illinois- Kentucky fluorspar district located about 8 kilometers southwest of Salem, Kentucky, which has a large vein that contains at least 1.6 million metric tons at a grade of 60 percent CaF 2 (Feytis, 2009). Additional fluorspar resources of lower grade but larger tonnage have been identified at Hicks Dome in the Illinois-Kentucky fluorspar district and at Lost River near the western tip of the Seward Peninsula in Alaska, along with a couple of dozen smaller, higher grade resources. Internationally, new mines that either opened before the beginning of 2013 or were scheduled to open soon after that time include the Nui Phao tungsten-fluorspar-bismuth-copper-gold deposit in northern Vietnam; the St. Lawrence project in Newfoundland, Canada, which is located in a well-known fluorspar district; the Bamianshan deposit, which is related to a strongly differentiated granite in northwestern Zhejiang Province, China, near some of that Province’s large, subalkaline-volcanic-related epithermal veins; and the Nokeng project in South Africa, which is also related to a strongly differentiated granite. Other deposits in northwestern Australia, Nevada (United States), Norway, South Africa, and Sweden have been identified and could be put into production within just a few years. Among undiscovered resources, an interesting possibility might be to produce a fluorine product from evaporitic, high-fluorine, high-pH sodium-carbonate brines like Lake Magadi (Kenya) and Lake Natron (Tanzania) in Africa’s Eastern Rift Valley. In addition, apparently conformable fluorspar deposits in tuffaceous limy lacustrine sediments, such as those in Italy, are likely to occur in similar young alkalic volcanic settings elsewhere in the world. Modern geophysical and geochemical exploration techniques have typically not been brought to bear in exploration for new fluorspar deposits, although such techniques are likely to be used in future exploration. The tendency for fluorine to dissolve in significant concentrations in water at low temperature allows both surface water and groundwater to be used as sampling media in geochemical exploration. Evolved granite-related fluorspar deposits may be particularly susceptible to geophysical exploration methods because crystalline rocks that form a basement to sedimentary sections can be approximately defined with gravity and magnetic methods, and magnetite-bearing skarns can be directly detected with magnetic surveys. Environmental considerations of fluorine mining focus especially on drinking water, where high fluorine concentrations can lead to tooth decay; dental and skeletal fluorosis; and bone and cartilage conditions, including genu valgum, which is the crippling bone deformity more commonly known as knock knee. Trace amounts of other elements in fluorspar ores are a concern at some deposits; for example, high beryllium concentrations in alkaline-volcanic-related epithermal deposits or high cadmium concentrations associated with Mississippi Valley-type and salt-related carbonate-hosted fluorspar deposits. Future research might include testing whether fluorine can be extracted economically from high-pH, sodium-carbonate brines and exploring for new occurrences of apparently conformable fluorspar deposits in tuffaceous limy lacustrine sediments outside of the Latium Region of Italy. Other promising new areas of research could be studies of fluorspar deposit fluid inclusion compositions by quadrupole mass spectrometry, by noble gas mass spectrometry on irradiated fluid inclusions, or by chlorine isotopes, while also measuring the chemistry of the same fluid inclusions either by bulk crush-and-leach methods or by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Advanced studies of fluid inclusion chemistry could be applied beneficially to some of the enigmatic large epithermal fluorspar veins at various places in the world, where they might determine those deposits’ possible relationships to igneous intrusions, or to dissolved salt, or to heated meteoric water in volcanic sections, or perhaps to all three. This knowledge could help focus new exploration.

Professional Paper

Recent advances in statistical methods for the estimation of sediment and nutrient transport in rivers

This paper reviews advances in methods for estimating fluvial transport of suspended sediment and nutrients. Research from the past four years, mostly dealing with estimating monthly and annual loads, is emphasized. However, because this topic has not appeared in previous IUGG reports, some research prior to 1990 is included. The motivation for studying sediment transport has shifted during the past few decades. In addition to its role in filling reservoirs and channels, sediment is increasingly recognized as an important part of fluvial ecosystems and estuarine wetlands. Many groups want information about sediment transport [ Bollman , 1992]: Scientists trying to understand benthic biology and catchment hydrology; citizens and policy-makers concerned about environmental impacts (e.g. impacts of logging [ Beschta , 1978] or snow-fences [ Sturges , 1992]); government regulators considering the effectiveness of programs to protect in-stream habitat and downstream waterbodies; and resource managers seeking to restore wetlands.

Reviews of Geophysics

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Honshu

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas hydrate systems along the eastern continental margin of India

The primary objectives of the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) were to obtain new data on the occurrence of gas hydrate systems and to advance the understanding of the controls on the formation of gas hydrate accumulations in the offshore of India. In accordance with the ultimate overall goal of the NGHP effort to assess the energy resource potential of marine gas hydrates in India, particular focus was placed on the exploration and evaluation of gas hydrate occurrences at high saturations in sand-rich systems. NGHP-02 operations were conducted from 3-March-2015 to 28-July-2015 off the eastern coast of India and included logging while drilling (LWD) operations at 25 locations, and coring and wireline logging operations at 10 locations, in the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins. The formation of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations, which are more suitable for energy extraction, requires the presence of relatively coarse-grained sediments with porosity needed to support the migration and accumulation of gas, and the nucleation of gas hydrate. The results of downhole logging, coring and formation pressure testing operations during NGHP-02 have confirmed the presence of extensive sand-rich depositional systems throughout the deepwater portions of the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins. Two areas of Krishna-Godavari Basin, referred to as Areas B and C, contain substantial gas hydrate accumulations in sand-rich systems and therefore represent ideal candidate sites for future gas hydrate production testing. This summary and technical report includes a comprehensive synthesis of the geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and physical property data acquired during NGHP-02 as it relates to the controls on gas hydrate occurrence, particularly with regards to sand-hosted accumulations. In the Mahanadi Basin, despite the confirmation of extensive reservoir capacity, gas supply at the NGHP-02 sites was insufficient to charge the reservoirs with gas hydrates. In the Krishna-Godavari Basin, extensive reservoir systems were confirmed with sediment grain-sizes ranging from coarse-silts to gravels. These reservoirs range from fully- to partially filled with gas hydrate. The gas is determined to be from only microbial sources, and in part migrated into the reservoirs from deeper systems. The controls on gas hydrate occurrence are complex and varied; and include substantial reservoir heterogeneity and sufficient permeability throughout the reservoirs and seals that allowed pervasive fluid flow into and through the hydrate-bearing systems. These discoveries are the most significant confirmation of the exploration approach that focuses on direct detection of hydrate reservoirs supported by comprehensive petroleum systems analyses.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology

Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M 7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (ΔCFS( t )) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying “dynamic” portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent “static” portion (ΔCFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ΔCFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ΔCFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ΔCFS( t ) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ΔCFS and the maximum positive value of ΔCFS( t ) (peak ΔCFS( t )) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ΔCFS and peak ΔCFS( t ) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ΔCFS, creates larger peak ΔCFS( t ) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ΔCFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges

Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic-source and ground-motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modelling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Reviews of Geophysics

Activity Of Paricutin Volcano From August 1, 1948 to June 30, 1949

The present brief summary of activity at Paricutin Volcano, State of Michoacán, Mexico, follows the pattern of the last report on this volcano published in these Transactions late in 1948 [Wilcox and Gutierrez, 1948]. Anticipating the end of his two‐year period of observation at Parícutin in December 1948, Wilcox instructed the junior author, a native Tarascan from the town of San Juan Parangaricutiro, now destroyed, in the processes of keeping detailed diagrammatic records of eruptive activity, of making weather observations, and of outlining the monthly advance of the new lava. On Wilcox's departure the senior author, who had closely followed the series of studies at Paricutin and had frequently visited the Volcano from June 1943 onward, took up the task‐of watching over Paricutin and preparing reports on its activity. During the first six months of 1949 he spent 11 days at the Volcano on the following dates: January 25–28, March 29–April 1, and May 18–20. On these visits he checked the elevations of the chief points on the rim of tie cone, using an alidade at known stations, and in addition followed the growth of the lava‐vent mound, variations in the form of the interior of the crater, and any other features that showed change. Further, he discussed with the junior author, the Volcano's activity during the periods between visits and assembled the observational data for formal presentation.

Michoacan

Sequential filling of a late paleozoic foreland basin

Through the use of an extensive data base of geophysical well logs, parasequence-scale subdivisions within a late Paleozoic synorogenic clastic wedge resolve cycles of sequential subsidence of a foreland basin, sediment progradation, subsidence of a carbonate shelf edge, diachronously subsiding discrete depositional centers, and basinwide transgression. Although temporal resolution of biostratigraphic markers is less precise in Paleozoic successions than in younger basins, parasequence-scale subdivisions provide more detailed resolution within marker-defined units in Paleozoic strata. As an example, the late Paleozoic Black Warrior basin in the foreland of the Ouachita thrust belt is filled with a synorogenic clastic wedge, the lower part of which intertongues with the fringe of a cratonic carbonate facies in the distal part of the basin. The stratal geometry of one tongue of the carbonate facies (lower tongue of Bangor Limestone) defines a ramp that grades basinward into a thin black shale. An overlying tongue of the synorogenic clastic wedge (lower tongue of Parkwood Formation) consists of cyclic delta and delta-front deposits, in which parasequences are defined by marine-flooding surfaces above coarsening- and shallowing-upward successions of mudstone and sandstone. Within the lower Parkwood tongue, two genetic stratigraphic sequences (A and B) are defined by parasequence offlap and downlap patterns and are bounded at the tops by basinwide maximum-flooding surfaces. The distribution of parasequences within sequences A and B indicates two cycles of sequential subsidence (deepening) and progradation, suggesting subsidence during thrust advance and progradation during thrust quiescence. Parasequence stacking in sequences A and B also indicates diachronous differential tectonic subsidence of two discrete depositional centers within the basin. The uppermost sequence (C) includes reworked sandstones and an overlying shallow-marine limestone, a vertical succession that reflects no tectonic subsidence, a very minor or null sediment supply, and basinwide transgression. The temporal resolution at parasequence scale significantly improves the resolution of the tectonic history of the thrust belt-foreland basin system.

Journal of Sedimentary Research

Rapid fault healing from cementation controls the dynamics of deep slow slip and tremor

Despite its status as one of the most important discoveries in geophysics, the physical mechanism(s) responsible for slow slip events (SSEs) are not well understood. Here, we synthesize observations of deep SSEs in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and argue that rapid, cohesive fault strengthening may control the dynamics of deep SSEs. Cohesive strength is frequently ignored in constitutive laws used to describe fault rheology in numerical simulations of earthquakes and SSEs alike. To demonstrate its importance, we perform and analyze a suite of petrological experiments that simulate fault healing under representative pressure and temperature conditions. We show that significant cohesive strength recovery caused by dissolution-precipitation processes occurs on timescales of just a few hours. Together, our experimental and observational results support the idea that cohesion is a key component of fault strength under SSE conditions and highlight the need for its inclusion in both future experiments and numerical models of fault slip.

British Columbia, Washington

Rupture parameters of the 2003 Zemmouri (M w 6.8), Algeria, earthquake from joint inversion of interferometric synthetic aperture radar, coastal uplift, and GPS

We study the surface deformation associated with the 21 May 2003 (M w = 6.8) Zemmouri (Algeria) earthquake, the strongest seismic event felt in the Algiers region since 1716. The thrust earthquake mechanism and related surface deformation revealed an average 0.50 m coastal uplift along ??55-km-long coastline. We obtain coseismic interferograms using Envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) (IS2) and RADARSAT standard beam (ST4) data from both the ascending and descending orbits of Envisat satellite, whereas the RADARSAT data proved useful only in the descending mode. While the two RADARSAT interferograms cover the earthquake area, Envisat data cover only the western half of the rupture zone. Although the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) coherence in the epicenter area is poor, deformation fringes are observed along the coast in different patches. In the Boumerdes area, the maximum coseismic deformation is indicated by the high gradient of fringes visible in all interferograms in agreement with field measurements (tape, differential GPS, leveling, and GPS). To constrain the earthquake rupture parameters, we model the interferograms and uplift measurements using elastic dislocations on triangular fault patches in an elastic and homogeneous half-space. We invert the coseismic slip using first, a planar surface and second, a curved fault, both constructed from triangular elements using Poly3Dinv program that uses a damped least square minimization. The best fit of InSAR, coastal uplift, and GPS data corresponds to a 65-km-long fault rupture dipping 40?? to 50?? SE, located at 8 to 13 km offshore with a change in strike west of Boumerdes from N60??-65?? to N95??-105??. The inferred rupture geometry at depth correlates well with the seismological results and may have critical implications for the seismic hazard assessment of the Algiers region. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

The United States Magnetotelluric Array and the National Impedance Map

The United States Magnetotelluric Array (USMTArray) data set, collected in the years 2006–2024, consists of more than 1,700 long-period magnetotelluric stations covering the entirety of the contiguous United States on a quasi-regular 70 km grid. Funding across multiple federal agencies was critical to sustaining this effort to its completion. Important components of the project included active guidance and participation from the MT community, the open and timely availability of all data, and the application of consistent instrumentation and robust data processing. Together with parallel advancement in the development of publicly available three-dimensional (3D) inversion codes, the USMTArray has revitalized the US magnetotelluric community and increased the visibility of magnetotellurics within the Earth-science community. Taken as a whole, these data are visualized as the National Impedance Map, which, together with a 3D synthesis conductivity model of the nation, reveals the electrical architecture of the contiguous US. USMTArray data are used by researchers worldwide for fundamental and applied studies, including investigations of continental architecture and evolution, estimation of hazards to critical infrastructure due to geomagnetic storms, and assessment of the nation's undiscovered geothermal and mineral resources. We here review the history and development of the project, discuss the challenges and successes in its execution, present the National Impedance Map and synthesis conductivity model, and highlight the breadth of research stemming from this rich data set.

conterminous United States

Appendix B—Lake and ground‐water levels

An outstanding achievement of the Section of Hydrology has been the work of the Committee on Glaciers in assembling the existing records of the advance and retreat of the glaciers in the Western States and in Alaska, encouraging various agencies in making periodic observations, systematizing and standardizing the work, and providing for the compilation and preservation of the data obtained from year to year. The fluctuation of lake levels is a closely related subject that is equally fundamental in the study of hydrology. In 1922 I published a map giving the distribution of 68 Pleistocene lakes in the Basin and Range province and showed that the desiccation of these lakes could have been caused by change in temperature as well as change in precipitation (Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., v. 33. pp. 541–552. 1922). Abundant and convincing evidences of changes in climate in the Pleistocene epoch or at its end are afforded both by the ancient drift-sheets and by the ancient lake features, but the question as to the relative importance of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation is still very obscure.

western United States and Alaska

Instrumentation recommendations for volcano monitoring at U.S. volcanoes under the national volcano early warning system

As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding “country rock.” Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at midlatitude or high-latitude volcanoes; (c) safety factors during unrest, which can limit where new instrumentation can safely be installed (particularly at near-vent sites that can be critical for precursor detection and eruption forecasting); and (d) the remoteness of many U.S. volcanoes (particularly those in the Aleutians and the Marianas Islands), where access is difficult or impossible most of the year. Given these difficulties, it is reasonable to anticipate that ground-based monitoring of eruptions at U.S. volcanoes will likely be performed primarily with instruments installed before unrest begins. 2. Given a growing awareness of previously undetected 2. phenomena that may occur before an eruption begins, at present the types and (or) density of instruments in use at most U.S. volcanoes is insufficient to provide reliable early warning of volcanic eruptions. As shown by the gap analysis of Ewert and others (2005), a number of U.S. volcanoes lack even rudimentary monitoring. At those volcanic systems with monitoring instrumentation in place, only a few types of phenomena can be tracked in near-real time, principally changes in seismicity, deformation, and large-scale changes in thermal flux (through satellite-based remote sensing). Furthermore, researchers employing technologically advanced instrumentation at volcanoes around the world starting in the 1990s have shown that subtle and previously undetectable phenomena can precede or accompany eruptions. Detection of such phenomena would greatly improve the ability of U.S. volcano observatories to provide accurate early warnings of impending eruptions, and is a critical capability particularly at the very high-threat volcanoes identified by Ewert and others (2005). For these two reasons, change from a reactive to a proactive volcano-monitoring strategy is clearly needed at U.S. volcanoes. Monitoring capabilities need to be expanded at virtually every volcanic center, regardless of its current state of unrest, with particular emphases on real-time data transmission and increasing the diversity, quality, and quantity of instrumentation at U.S. volcano observatories. In this report, we present recommendations for the types and numbers of instruments that should be deployed to monitor U.S. volcanoes. These recommendations are the result of discussions among members of a panel of government- and university-based scientists about the status and future directions of volcano monitoring, with discussions framed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)’s National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) initiative (Ewert and others, 2005).

Scientific Investigations Report