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Landscape-scale drivers of tayra abundance in the Ecuadorian Andes

Habitat conversion to agriculture and overexploitation of wildlife are the two largest drivers of biodiversity loss globally. Biodiversity loss is especially prevalent in areas undergoing rapid economic development at the expense of natural land cover as is the case across much of South America. Despite expected declines in wildlife populations associated with ongoing large-scale land conversions, for many species we lack sufficient data on key threats and drivers of abundance in order to inform appropriate management and conservation. Collecting data to estimate critical state variables such as abundance can be expensive, logistically challenging, and even implausible on spatial scales relevant to species management, especially for carnivores which are elusive and difficult to monitor. Here, we use detection-non-detection data collected using a structured camera trap survey repeated over two years in the Ecuadorian Andes to produce insights into the habitat associations and potential threats faced by the tayra, a medium-sized carnivore that despite being perceived to be relatively common in South America, remains largely understudied. We use hierarchical modelling to estimate an index of abundance for the tayra while accounting for imperfect detection. We demonstrate the tayra to be a lowland habitat generalist, with conversion of land to agriculture potentially benefitting this species in the short term, with increasing proportion of core agricultural land being associated with higher indices of abundance. However, we highlight that this state could potentially serve as an ecological trap in the long term. We provide evidence for negative impacts of human population density on tayra abundance. We hypothesize this relationship could be underpinned by conflict and subsequent persecution by humans, which is likely to be exacerbated in agricultural landscapes. These findings suggest that like many carnivores, the tayra may be able to adapt and even thrive in human modified landscapes given societal acceptance, thus, conservation strategies for the tayra that focus on fostering co-existence between humans and this medium-sized carnivore may contribute to its future.

Biodiversity and Conservation

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m 2 ) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

California

Effects of stocking density and water exchange rate on growth and survival of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque) in circular tanks

Channel catfish were cultured for 177 days in circular tanks containing 1.6 m 3 of water at combinations of five stocking densities (90–720 fish/m 3 ) and five water exchange rates (2.0–0.5 h per exchange). Net yield increased as stocking density increased up to 540 fish/m 3 then declined at higher densities. Mean fish weight, feed conversion efficiency and survival all declined as stocking density increased. Water exchange rates of 1.5 h or greater achieved similar results at stocking densities of 180 and 360 fish/m 3 . However, at a density of 540 fish/m 3 a faster exchange rate resulted in increased growth, feed conversion efficiency and survival. At 2.0 h per exchange, these parameters were depressed at 180 and 360 fish/m 3 . The following predictive equations ( P = 0.01) were formulated from the data, where x 1 represents the stocking density and x 2 the exchange rate. Net yield: Y 1 = −64.785 + 0.52x 1 + 121.977x 2 − 2.25 × 10 −5 x 1 2 − 43.989x 2 2 − 0.0104x 1 x 2 . "> Y 1 = −64.785 + 0.52x 1 + 121.977x 2 − 2.25 × 10 −5 x 12 − 43.989x 2 2 − 0.0104x 1 x 2 . Mean fish weight: Y 2 = 26.649 − 0.346x 1 × 246.384x 2 − 97.55x 2 2 . "> Y 2 = 26.649 − 0.346x 1 × 246.384x 2 − 97.55x 2 2 . Feed conversion efficiency: Y 3 = 1.799 − 9.673 × 10 −4 x 1 + 0.464x 2 2 . "> Y 3 = 1.799 − 9.673 × 10 −4 x 1 + 0.464x 2 2 . The maximum predicted net yield of 93.1 kg occurs at a stocking density of 399 fish/m 3 and 0.91 h per exchange.

Aquaculture

Comparative performance of fixed-film biological filters: Application of reactor theory

Nitrification is classified as a two-step consecutive reaction where R1 represents the rate of formation of the intermediate product NO2-N and R2 represents the rate of formation of the final product NO3-N. The relative rates of R1 and R2 are influenced by reactor type characterized hydraulically as plug-flow, plug-flow with dispersion and mixed-flow. We develop substrate conversion models for fixed-film biofilters operating in the first-order kinetic regime based on application of chemical reactor theory. Reactor type, inlet conditions and the biofilm kinetic constants Ki (h-1) are used to predict changes in NH4-N, NO2-N, NO3-N and BOD5. The inhibiting effects of the latter on R1 and R2 were established based on the ?? relation, e.g.:{A formula is presented}where BOD5,max is the concentration that causes nitrification to cease and N is a variable relating Ki to increasing BOD5. Conversion models were incorporated in spreadsheet programs that provided steady-state concentrations of nitrogen and BOD5 at several points in a recirculating aquaculture system operating with input values for fish feed rate, reactor volume, microscreen performance, make-up and recirculating flow rates. When rate constants are standardized, spreadsheet use demonstrates plug-flow reactors provide higher rates of R1 and R2 than mixed-flow reactors thereby reducing volume requirements for target concentrations of NH4-N and NO2-N. The benefit provided by the plug-flow reactor varies with hydraulic residence time t as well as the effective vessel dispersion number, D/??L. Both reactor types are capable of providing net increases in NO2-N during treatment but the rate of decrease in the mixed-flow case falls well behind that predicted for plug-flow operation. We show the potential for a positive net change in NO2-N increases with decreases in the dimensionless ratios K2, (R2 )/K1,( R1 ) and [NO2-N]/[NH4-N] and when the product K1, (R1) t provides low to moderate NH4-N conversions. Maintaining high levels of the latter reduces the effective reactor utilization rate (%) defined here as (RNavg/RNmax)100 where RNavg is the mean reactive nitrogen concentration ([NH4-N] + [NO2-N]) within the reactor, and RNmax represents the feed concentration of the same. Low utilization rates provide a hedge against unexpected increases in substrate loading and reduce water pumping requirements but force use of elevated reactor volumes. Further ?? effects on R1 and R2 can be reduced through use of a tanks-in-series versus a single mixed-flow reactor configuration and by improving the solids removal efficiency of microscreen treatment.

Aquacultural Engineering

Type and amount of organic amendments affect enhanced biogenic methane production from coal and microbial community structure

Slow rates of coal-to-methane conversion limit biogenic methane production from coalbeds. This study demonstrates that rates of coal-to-methane conversion can be increased by the addition of small amounts of organic amendments. Algae, cyanobacteria, yeast cells, and granulated yeast extract were tested at two concentrations (0.1 and 0.5 g/L), and similar increases in total methane produced and methane production rates were observed for all amendments at a given concentration. In 0.1 g/L amended systems, the amount of carbon converted to methane minus the amount produced in coal only systems exceeded the amount of carbon added in the form of amendment, suggesting enhanced coal-to-methane conversion through amendment addition. The amount of methane produced in the 0.5 g/L amended systems did not exceed the amount of carbon added. While the archaeal communities did not vary significantly, the bacterial populations appeared to be strongly influenced by the presence of coal when 0.1 g/L of amendment was added; at an amendment concentration of 0.5 g/L the bacterial community composition appeared to be affected most strongly by the amendment type. Overall, the results suggest that small amounts of amendment are not only sufficient but possibly advantageous if faster in situ coal-to-methane production is to be promoted.

Fuel

Mineralogical, chemical and K-Ar isotopic changes in Kreyenhagen Shale whole rocks and <2 µm clay fractions during natural burial and hydrous-pyrolysis experimental maturation

Progressive maturation of the Eocene Kreyenhagen Shale from the San Joaquin Basin of California was studied by combining mineralogical and chemical analyses with K&ndash;Ar dating of whole rocks and <2 &mu;m clay fractions from naturally buried samples and laboratory induced maturation by hydrous pyrolysis of an immature outcrop sample. The K&ndash;Ar age decreases from 89.9 &plusmn; 3.9 and 72.4 &plusmn; 4.2 Ma for the outcrop whole rock and its <2 &mu;m fraction, respectively, to 29.7 &plusmn; 1.5 and 21.0 &plusmn; 0.7 Ma for the equivalent materials buried to 5167 m. The natural maturation does not produce K&ndash;Ar ages in the historical sense, but rather K/Ar ratios of relative K and radiogenic 40 Ar amounts resulting from a combined crystallization of authigenic and alteration of initial detrital K-bearing minerals of the rocks. The Al/K ratio of the naturally matured rocks is essentially constant for the entire depth sequence, indicating that there is no detectable variation in the crystallo-chemical organization of the K-bearing alumino-silicates with depth. No supply of K from outside of the rock volumes occurred, which indicates a closed-system behavior for it. Conversely, the content of the total organic carbon (TOC) content decreases significantly with burial, based on the progressive increasing Al/TOC ratio of the whole rocks. The initial varied mineralogy and chemistry of the rocks and their <2 &mu;m fractions resulting from differences in detrital sources and depositional settings give scattered results that homogenize progressively during burial due to increased authigenesis, and concomitant increased alteration of the detrital material. Hydrous pyrolysis was intended to alleviate the problem of mineral and chemical variations in initially deposited rocks of naturally matured sequences. However, experiments on aliquots from thermally immature Kreyenhagen Shale outcrop sample did not mimic the results from naturally buried samples. Experiments conducted for 72 h at temperatures from 270 to 365 &deg;C did not induce significant changes at temperatures above 310 &deg;C in the mineralogical composition and K&ndash;Ar ages of the rock and <2 &mu;m fraction. The K&ndash;Ar ages of the <2 &mu;m fraction range from 72.4 &plusmn; 4.2 Ma in the outcrop sample to 62.4 &plusmn; 3.4 Ma in the sample heated the most at 365 &deg;C for 216 h. This slight decrease in age outlines some loss of radiogenic 40 Ar, together with losses of organic matter as oil, gas, and aqueous organic species. Large amounts of smectite layers in the illite&ndash;smectite mixed layers of the pyrolyzed outcrop <2 &mu;m fraction remain during thermal experiments, especially above 310 &deg;C. With no illitization detected above 310 &deg;C, smectite appears to have inhibited rather than promoted generation of expelled oil from decomposition of bitumen. This hindrance is interpreted to result from bitumen impregnating the smectite interlayer sites and rock matrix. Bitumen remains in the <2 &mu;m fraction despite leaching with H 2 O 2 . Its presence in the smectite interlayers is apparent by the inability of the clay fraction to fully expand or collapse once bitumen generation from the thermal decomposition of the kerogen is completed, and by almost invariable K&ndash;Ar ages confirming for the lack of any K supply and/or radiogenic 40 Ar removal. This suggests that once bitumen impregnates the porosity of a progressively maturing source rock, the pore system is no longer wetted by water and smectite to illite conversion ceases. Experimental attempts to evaluate the smectite conversion to illite should preferentially use low-TOC rocks to avoid inhibition of the reaction by bitumen impregnation.

California

The relocation of microearthquakes in the northern Mississippi Embayment

Three-component seismograms, recorded by a small array of digital instruments in the northern Mississippi embayment, consistently show a high-amplitude phase on the vertical component that arrives approximately 0.8 s before the shear wave. On the basis of its timing and apparent velocity, this phase is identified as an S-P conversion from the boundary between the unconsolidated Cenozoic sediments and the underlying Paleozoic rocks. Synthetic models of ground motion in the Mississippi embayment indicate that vertical displacement amplitudes are higher for S-P conversions than for transmitted shear waves at all angles of incidence. The models and their agreement with observations of the three-component seismograms suggest that true shear waves cannot be reliably identified from vertical component seismograms recorded in this area. The travel times of converted phases are used, together with crustal velocity models derived from a recent seismic refraction survey, to relocate approximately 500 microearthquakes recorded by the Central Mississippi Valley regional seismic network. Since the network data are recorded by vertical component seismographs, we assume that the S phases, observed at the stations sited on unconsolidated sediments, are S-P conversions. This assumption significantly reduces the average rms residual and provides well-constrained hypocentral locations for 350 earthquakes. The relocated microearthquakes cluster tightly along previously identified epicentral trends. Focal depths range from 0.5 to 22 km, but events deeper than 14 km are rare, and events shallower than 3 km are confined, almost exclusively, to the area between Ridgely, Tennessee, and New Madrid, Missouri. Focal mechanisms are generally consistent with the results of previous studies. The axial seismicity trend, which extends from Caruthersville, Missouri, to Marked Tree, Arkansas, is characterized by right-lateral strike-slip motion on a northeast trending, nearly vertical fault plane. The events between Ridgely, Tennessee, and New Madrid, Missouri, commonly show strike-slip focal mechanisms, with minor components of both normal and reverse dip slip.

Northern Mississippi Embayment

Fire, climate and changing forests

A changing climate implies potential transformations in plant demography, communities, and disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks. How do these dynamics play out in terrestrial ecosystems across scales of space and time? “Vegetation type conversion” (VTC) is a term used to describe abrupt and long-lasting changes in vegetation structure and composition due to various kinds of perturbations. For example, it has long been observed that fire-adapted ecosystems such as the California chaparral shrublands are readily replaced by non-native annual grasses when humans increase fire frequency. Similar effects are being observed in Sonoran Desert plant communities, where invasion by non-native buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliare) exposes a fire-sensitive plant community to high-intensity fires, which are lethal to the long-lived iconic Sonoran flora such as Saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). While type conversions following severe disturbance have been observed for some time, the mechanisms that underlay such changes are only recently coming to light. Threshold behavior is of particular concern: as various climate indices pass critical values, some ecosystems may be reaching points of no return where recovery to the earlier state is no longer possible. A recent publication in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S., has now revealed that increased fire severity impairs post-fire forest regeneration, setting the stage for potential large-scale type conversion of western conifer forests.

Nature Plants

Energy budget for yearling lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush

Components of the energy budget of yearling lake trout ( Salvelinus namacush ) were derived from data gathered in laboratory growth and metabolism studies; values for energy lost as waste were estimated with previously published equations. Because the total caloric value of food consumed by experimental lake trout was significantly different during the two years in which the studies were done, separate annual energy budgets were formulated. The gross conversion efficiency in yearling lake trout fed ad libitum rations of alewives at 10°C was 26.6% to 41%. The distribution of energy with temperature was similar for each component of the energy budget. Highest conversion efficiencies were observed in fish fed less than ad libitum rations; fish fed an amount of food equivalent to about 4% of their body weight at 10°C had a conversion efficiency of 33% to 45.1%. Physiologically useful energy was 76.1–80.1% of the total energy consumed. Estimated growth for age-I and -II lake fish was near that observed for laboratory fish held at lake temperatures and fed reduced rations.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology

Quantifying hydrologic controls on local- and landscape-scale indicators of coastal wetland loss

Background and Aims Coastal wetlands have evolved to withstand stressful abiotic conditions through the maintenance of hydrologic feedbacks among vegetation production and flooding. However, disruption of these feedbacks can lead to ecosystem collapse, or a regime shift from vegetated wetland to open water. To prevent the loss of critical coastal wetland habitat, we must improve understanding of the abiotic-biotic linkages among flooding and wetland stability. The aim of this research was to identify characteristic landscape patterns and thresholds of wetland degradation that can be used to identify areas of vulnerability, reduce flooding threats, and improve habitat quality. Methods We measured local- and landscape-scale responses of coastal wetland vegetation to flooding stress in healthy and degrading coastal wetlands. We hypothesized that conversion of Spartina patens wetlands to open water could be defined by a distinct change in landscape configuration pattern, and that this change would occur at a discrete elevation threshold. Key Results Despite similarities in total land and water cover, we observed differences in the landscape configuration of vegetated and open water pixels in healthy and degrading wetlands. Healthy wetlands were more aggregated, and degrading wetlands were more fragmented. Generally, greater aggregation was associated with higher wetland elevation and better drainage, compared to fragmented wetlands, which had lower elevation and poor drainage. The relationship between vegetation cover and elevation was non-linear, and the conversion from vegetated wetland to open water occurred beyond an elevation threshold of hydrologic stress. Conclusions The elevation threshold defined a transition zone where healthy, aggregated, wetland converted to a degrading, fragmented, wetland beyond an elevation threshold of 0.09 m NAVD88 (0.27 m MSL), and complete conversion to open water occurred beyond 0.03 m NAVD88 (0.21 m MSL). This work illustrates that changes in landscape configuration can be used as an indicator of wetland loss, with specific elevation thresholds to inform restoration and conservation planning to maximize wetland stability in anticipation of flooding threats.

Louisiana, Texas

Waterfowl use of wetland habitats informs wetland restoration designs for multi‐species benefits

Extensive global estuarine wetland losses have prompted intensive focus on restoration of these habitats. In California, substantial tracts of freshwater, brackish and tidal wetlands have been lost. Given the anthropogenic footprint of development and urbanization in this region, wetland restoration must rely on conversion of existing habitat types rather than adding new wetlands. These restorations can cause conflicts among stakeholders and species that win or lose depending on identified restoration priorities. Suisun Marsh on the San Francisco Bay Estuary is the largest brackish marsh on the U.S. Pacific coast. To understand how conversion of brackish managed wetlands to tidal marsh would impact waterfowl populations and whether future tidal marsh restorations could provide suitable habitat for dabbling ducks, we examined waterfowl wetland use with a robust GPS‐GSM tracking dataset (442,017 locations) from six dabbling duck species (N=315). Managed wetlands, which comprise 47% of Suisun Marsh, were consistently and strongly selected by waterfowl over tidal marshes, with use ~98% across seasons and species. However, while use of tidal marsh (only 14% of Suisun Marsh) was generally <2%, almost half our ducks (~44%) spent some time in this habitat and exhibited strong utilization of pond‐like features. Ponds only comprise ~10% of this habitat but attracted 44% use (~4.5 times greater than availability). Synthesis and applications : Managed wetlands were vital to dabbling ducks, but losses from conversion of these habitats may be partially mitigated by incorporating pond features that are more attractive to waterfowl, and likely to offer multi‐species benefits, into tidal marsh restoration designs. While waterfowl are presently a common taxon, previously seen calamitous population declines can be avoided through informed ecosystem‐based management that promotes species richness, biodiversity and helps “keep common species common”.

California

Imaging using cross-hole seismoelectric tomography

We propose a new cross-hole imaging approach based on seismoelectric conversions associated with the transmission of seismic waves from seismic sources located in a borehole to receivers electrodes located in a second borehole. The seismoelectric seismic-to-electric problem is solved using Biot theory coupled with a generalized Ohm's law with an electrokinetic coupling term. The components of the displacement of the solid phase, the fluid pressure, and the electrical potential are solved using a finite element approach with PML boundary conditions for the seismic waves and boundary conditions mimicking an infinite material for the electrostatic problem. We have developed an inversion algorithm using the electrical disturbances recorded in the second borehole to localize the position of the heterogeneities responsible for the seismoelectric conversions. Because of the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem, regularization is used to constrain the solution at each time in the seismoelectric time window comprised between the time of the seismic shot and the time of the first arrival of the seismic waves in the second borehole. All the inverted volumetric current source densities are stacked to produce an image of the position of the heterogeneities between the two boreholes. Two simple synthetic case studies are presented to test this concept. The first case study corresponds to a vertical discontinuity between two homogeneous sub-domains. The second case study corresponds to a poroelastic inclusion embedded into an homogenous poroelastic formation. In both cases, the position of the heterogeneity is fairly well-recovered using only the electrical disturbances associated with the seismoelectric conversions. ?? 2011 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts

Organic composition of some Upper Cretaceous shale, Powder River Basin, Wyoming

The lower Upper Cretaceous strata in northeastern Wyoming, which have yielded major quantities of oil and gas, were sampled at boreholes in Converse, Johnson, and Weston Counties. Cores of noncalcareous shale of largely nearshore-marine origin were obtained from the Frontier Formation and the overlying Cody Shale at depths of 3,780.6 to 3,879.9 m in Converse County, near the axis of the Powder River basin, and at depths of less than 320 m in Johnson County, on the western flank of the basin. Cores of calcareous and noncalcareous shale representing offshore-marine and nearshore-marine environments were acquired from the Belle Fourche Shale, Greenhorn Formation, and Carlile Shale at depths of less than 270 m in Weston County, on the eastern flank of the Powder River basin. Analyses of the shale for organic carbon content, total pyrolytic hydrocarbon yield, volatile hydrocarbon content, temperature of maximum pyrolytic yield, and vitrinite reflectance indicate that the amount and character of the organic matter in the sampled rocks is related to the content of calcium carbonate, the depositional environment, and the burial depth of the strata. On the east flank of the Powder River basin, calcareous shale of offshore-marine origin contains abundant hydrogen-rich organic matter derived mainly from aquatic plants. Noncalcareous shale of largely nearshore-marine origin, on the west flank of the basin, locally contains significant hydrogen-poor organic matter derived mostly from land plants. The noncalcareous, nearshore-marine shale in the middle of the basin probably contained similar amounts of hydrogendeficient organic matter prior to deep burial and thermal alteration. The calcareous shale in Weston County is a potentially rich source of oil and gas, but it is thermally immature and is in a very early stage of the hydrocarbon-generation process. The noncalcareous shale in Johnson County is a potential source rock for gas, but also is in an early stage of thermal alteration. In Converse County, the sampled beds are thermally mature and have generated hydrocarbons. The extent of this contribution of hydrocarbons to the commercial petroleum occurrences of the area can be inferred from the composition of the original organic matter in the beds. Furthermore, the degree of thermal alteration of the organic matter at these localities indicates that the depth of the sampled strata was never as great on the flanks of the Powder River basin as in the basin center.

Wyoming

Estimating transition probabilities among everglades wetland communities using multistate models

In this study we were able to provide the first estimates of transition probabilities of wet prairie and slough vegetative communities in Water Conservation Area 3A (WCA3A) of the Florida Everglades and to identify the hydrologic variables that determine these transitions. These estimates can be used in management models aimed at restoring proportions of wet prairie and slough habitats to historical levels in the Everglades. To determine what was driving the transitions between wet prairie and slough communities we evaluated three hypotheses: seasonality, impoundment, and wet and dry year cycles using likelihood-based multistate models to determine the main driver of wet prairie conversion in WCA3A. The most parsimonious model included the effect of wet and dry year cycles on vegetative community conversions. Several ecologists have noted wet prairie conversion in southern WCA3A but these are the first estimates of transition probabilities among these community types. In addition, to being useful for management of the Everglades we believe that our framework can be used to address management questions in other ecosystems. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands

Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (rangeland) science relevant?

Rapidly increasing demand for food, fiber, and fuel together with new technologies and the mobility of global capital are driving revolutionary changes in land use throughout the world. Efforts to increase land productivity include conversion of millions of hectares of rangelands to crop production, including many marginal lands with low resistance and resilience to degradation. Sustaining the productivity of these lands requires careful land use planning and innovative management systems. Historically, this responsibility has been left to agronomists and others with expertise in crop production. In this article, we argue that the revolutionary land use changes necessary to support national and global food security potentially make rangeland science more relevant now than ever. Maintaining and increasing relevance will require a revolutionary change in range science from a discipline that focuses on a particular land use or land cover to one that addresses the challenge of managing all lands that, at one time, were considered to be marginal for crop production. We propose four strategies to increase the relevance of rangeland science to global land management: 1) expand our awareness and understanding of local to global economic, social, and technological trends in order to anticipate and identify drivers and patterns of conversion; 2) emphasize empirical studies and modeling that anticipate the biophysical (ecosystem services) and societal consequences of large-scale changes in land cover and use; 3) significantly increase communication and collaboration with the disciplines and sectors of society currently responsible for managing the new land uses; and 4) develop and adopt a dynamic and flexible resilience-based land classification system and data-supported conceptual models (e.g., state-and-transition models) that represent all lands, regardless of use and the consequences of land conversion to various uses instead of changes in state or condition that are focused on a single land use.

Rangeland Ecology and Management

Water demands for expanding energy development

Water is used in producing energy for mining and reclamation of mined lands, onsite processing, transportation, refining, and conversion of fuels to other forms of energy. In the East, South, Midwest, and along the seacoasts, most water problems are related to pollution rather than to water supply. West of about the 100th meridian, however, runoff is generally less than potential diversions, and energy industries must compete with other water users. Water demands for extraction of coal, oil shale, uranium, and oil and gas are modest, although large quantities of water are used in secondary recovery operations for oil. The only significant use of water for energy transportation, aside from in-stream navigation use, is for slurry lines. Substantial quantities of water are required in the retorting and the disposal of spent oil shale. The conversion of coal to synthetic gas or oil or to electric power and the generation of electric power with nuclear energy require large quantities of water, mostly for cooling. Withdrawals for cooling of thermal-electric plants is by far the largest category of water use in energy industry, totaling about 170 billion gallons (644 million m3) per day in 1970. Water availability will dictate the location and design of energy-conversion facilities, especially in water deficient areas of the West.

Circular

Assessment of geothermal resources of the United States, 1975

This assessment of geothermal resources of the United States consists of two major parts: (1) estimates of total heat in the ground to a depth of 10 km and (2) estimates of the part of this total heat that is recoverable with present technology, regardless of price. No attempt has been made to consider most aspects of the legal, environmental, and institutional limitations in exploiting these resouces. In general, the average heat content of rocks is considerably higher in the Western United States than in the East. This also helps to explain why the most favorable hydrothermal convection systems and the hot young igneous systems occur in the West. Resources of the most attractive identified convection systems (excluding national parks) with predicted reservoir temperatures above 150 deg C have an estimated electrical production potential of about 8,000 megawatt century, or about 26,000 megawatt for 30 years. Assumptions in this conversion are: (1) one-half of the volume of the heat reservoirs is porous and permeable, (2) one-half of the heat of the porous, permeable parts is recoverable in fluids at the wellheads, and (3) the conversion efficiency of heat in wellhead fluids to electricity ranges from about 8 to 20 percent , depending on temperature and kind of fluid (hot water or steam). The estimated overall efficiency of conversion of heat in the ground to electrical energy generally ranges from less than 2 to 5 percent, depending on type of system and reservoir temperature. (See also W77-07477)

Circular

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming