Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Scientific American”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected USGS continuous-record streamgaging stations in North Carolina through 2012

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Carolina Division of Water Resources, compiled updated low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected continuous-record streamgages in North Carolina. The compilation of updated streamflow statistics provides regulators and planners with relevant hydrologic information reflective of the recent droughts, which can be used to better manage the quantity and quality of streams in North Carolina. Streamflow records available through the 2012 water year1 were used to determine the annual (based on climatic year2) and winter 7-day, 10-year (7Q10, W7Q10) low-flow discharges, the 30-day, 2-year (30Q2) low-flow discharge, and the 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low-flow discharge. Consequently, streamflow records available through March 31, 2012 (or the 2011 climatic year) were used to determine the updated low-flow characteristics. Low-flow characteristics were published for 177 unregulated sites, 56 regulated sites, and 33 sites known or considered to be affected by varying degrees of minor regulation and (or) diversions upstream from the streamgages (266 sites total). The updated 7Q10 discharges were compared for 63 streamgages across North Carolina where (1) long-term streamflow record consisted of 30 or more climatic years of data available as of the 1998 climatic year, and (2) streamflows were not known to be regulated. The 7Q10 discharges did not change for 3 sites, whereas increases and decreases were noted at 5 and 55 sites, respectively. Positive changes (increases) ranged from 4.3 percent (site 362) to 34.1 percent (site 112) with a median of 13.2 percent. Negative percentage changes (decreases) ranged from –3.3 percent (site 514) to –80.0 percent (site 308) with a median of –22.2 percent. The median percentage change for all 63 streamgages was –18.4 percent. Streamflow statistics determined as a part of this compilation included minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges for categorical periods. Flow-duration statistics based on the daily mean discharge records were compiled in this study for the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Flow-duration statistics were determined for each complete water year of record at a streamgage as well as the available period of record (or selected periods if flows were regulated) and selected seasonal, monthly, and calendar day periods. In addition to the streamflow statistics compiled for each of the water years, the number of days the daily mean discharge was at or below the 10th percentile was summed for each water year as well as the number of events during the water year when streamflow was consistently at or below the 10th percentile. All low-flow characteristics for the streamgages were added into the StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for North Carolina. The minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges based on the available (or selected if regulated flows) period of record were updated in the North Carolina StreamStatsDB. However, for the selected seasonal, monthly, calendar day, and annual water year periods, tab-delimited American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) tables of the streamflow statistics are available online to users from a link provided in the StreamStats application. 1The annual period from October 1 through September 30, designated by the year in which the period ends. 2The annual period from April 1 through March 31, designated by the year in which the period begins.

North Carolina

The case for planetary sample return missions

The essential role of planetary sample studies in exploration of the solar system has been well established “Drake et al., 1987”. As part of the larger pursuit of comparative planetology, samples of other rocky planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars), planetary satellites, asteroids, and comets should reveal much about the materials and processes that formed Earth. In that context, Mars is an especially appealing sample target because of its distinctive, Earth‐like characteristics. Here, we review the scientific objectives and justifications for collecting documented samples of Mars and returning them to Earth for laboratory study. A Mars sample‐return mission will be technologically challenging but represents the only way to acquire definitive knowledge about formation of the planet, its geologic and climatic history, and its potential as a haven of life.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass ( Cladium jamaicense ), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific consensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow ( Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis ), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and community mosaics have changed due to shifting gradients to more terrestrial or more aquatic communities, displacement of native communities by non-natives, expansion of woody plants, high-intensity dry season fires, tree-island burnout, and reduced microtopography resulting from alligator population decline. Cape Sable seaside sparrow populations are threatened by nest destruction resulting from extended hydroperiods, drying pattern reversals, and high intensity dry season fires, as well as by the expansion of woody plants into graminoid wetland habitats. Populations of marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna that constitute the aquatic prey base for higher vertebrates have decreased in density and changed in species composition and size structure due to loss of wetland spatial extent, shortened hydroperiod, increased drought severity, loss of aquatic drought refugia in solution holes and alligator holes, and spread of exotic fishes. American alligator populations have declined in the Rocky Glades, and alligator holes have filled with sediment, as a result of shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity. Habitat options for wading birds to forage during the early dry season and during unusually wet years have been reduced due to loss of spatial extent and shortened hydroperiod.

Wetlands

New AGU scientific integrity and professional ethics policy available for review

The AGU Task Force on Scientific Ethics welcomes your review and comments on AGU's new Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy. The policy has at its heart a code of conduct adopted from the internationally accepted "Singapore Statement," originally created by the Second World Conference on Research Integrity (http://www.singaporestatement.org/), held in 2010. The new policy also encompasses professional and publishing ethics, providing a single source of guidance to AGU members, officers, authors, and editors

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Geophysics at Katmai: Geophysical expedition to Novarupta Volcano, Katmai National Park, Alaska

The great eruption of 1912 in the Aleutian Range of Alaska (Figure 1) is exceptional for both its size and relative simplicity. It was the largest eruption of this century and the largest rhyolitic outburst in almost 20 centuries. The 60-hour, 30-km 3 (ejecta volume) eruption produced extensive fallout deposits, an ash-flow sheet that gave rise to the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, and the 3-km-diameter Mt. Katmai caldera. Because magma reached the surface through uniform nonvolcanic basement and the vent underwent little or no collapse (unusual for such a large event), the site provides an ideal target for surface geophysical and subsurface coring exploration of structures and conditions produced by explosive volcanism [Panel on Volcanic Studies at Katmai, 1989]. A project to investigate upper crustal magmatic processes at Katmai is part of the U.S. Continental Scientific Drilling Program [Eichelberger and Hildreth, 1986]. The surface studies phase of this project was undertaken last summer and preliminary results are now emerging.

Alaska

Flood-inundation maps for the Withlacoochee River From Skipper Bridge Road to St. Augustine Road, within the City of Valdosta, Georgia, and Lowndes County, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 12.6-mile reach of the Withlacoochee River from Skipper Bridge Road to St. Augustine Road (Georgia State Route 133) were developed to depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage at Withlacoochee River at Skipper Bridge Road, near Bemiss, Ga. (023177483). Real-time stage information from this streamgage can be used with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Withlacoochee River at Skipper Bridge Road, near Bemiss, Ga. (023177483), can be used in conjunction with the maps developed for this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineer-ing Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software for the Withlacoochee River and was used to compute flood profiles for a 12.6-mile reach of the Withlacoochee River. The hydraulic model was then used to simulate 23 water-surface profiles at 1.0-foot (ft) intervals at the Withlacoochee River near the Bemiss streamgage. The profiles ranged from the National Weather Service action stage of 10.7 ft, which is 131.0 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88), to a stage of 32.7 ft, which is 153.0 ft above NAVD 88. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 4.0-ft horizontal resolution—to delineate the area flooded at each 1.0-ft interval of stream stage.

Georgia

Emerging fungal pathogen Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola in wild European snakes

Snake fungal disease (SFD) is an emerging disease of conservation concern in eastern North America. Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola , the causative agent of SFD, has been isolated from over 30 species of wild snakes from six families in North America. Whilst O. ophiodiicola has been isolated from captive snakes outside North America, the pathogen has not been reported from wild snakes elsewhere. We screened 33 carcasses and 303 moulted skins from wild snakes collected from 2010–2016 in Great Britain and the Czech Republic for the presence of macroscopic skin lesions and O. ophiodiicola . The fungus was detected using real-time PCR in 26 (8.6%) specimens across the period of collection. Follow up culture and histopathologic analyses confirmed that both O. ophiodiicola and SFD occur in wild European snakes. Although skin lesions were mild in most cases, in some snakes they were severe and were considered likely to have contributed to mortality. Culture characterisations demonstrated that European isolates grew more slowly than those from the United States, and phylogenetic analyses indicated that isolates from European wild snakes reside in a clade distinct from the North American isolates examined. These genetic and phenotypic differences indicate that the European isolates represent novel strains of O. ophiodiicola . Further work is required to understand the individual and population level impact of this pathogen in Europe.

Scientific Reports

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on new world screwworm ( Cochliomyia hominivorax ) myiasis in wildlife

The New World screwworm ( Cochliomyia hominivorax ; NWS) is a parasitic blowfly that lays its eggs in open wounds of live, warm-blooded animals including livestock, wildlife, and potentially humans. The larvae consume living animal tissue, and if untreated, the infestation can lead to death. Although NWS was eradicated in the United States in 1966, it has been moving northward from its endemic range in South America during the past decade and could seriously threaten the health of U.S. wildlife populations, making detection, treatment, and surveillance of the disease far more difficult across this multi-sector disease system. As the likelihood of NWS reintroduction to the United States increases, veterinarians, wildlife managers, and conservation specialists need to be informed and prepared to respond. The existing knowledge about NWS interactions with wildlife hosts is lacking, especially regarding North American species where the NWS has been eradicated for more than 50 years. To address this knowledge gap, we compiled an annotated bibliography that consolidates key information from the existing literature on NWS infestation in wild animals.

Open-File Report

Thirty-eighth supplement to the American Ornithologists' Union Check-list of North American birds

This fourth supplement after the 6th edition (1983) of the AOU "Check-list of North American Birds" consists of changes adopted by the Committee on Classification and Nomenclature between 1 March 1989 and 1 March 1991. The changes fall into eight categories: (1) five species ( Ixobrychus sinensis, Porphyrula flavirostris, Sterna bergii, Streptopelia orientalis , and Ficedula narcissina ) are added to the main list because of new distributional information; (2) six species ( Pterodroma cervicalis, Ortalis wagleri, Lophornis brachylopha, Corvus sinaloae, Cinclocerthia gutturalis , and Loxops caeruleirostris ) are added to the list because of the splitting of species previously in the list; (3) one extinct species ( Dysmorodrepanis munroi ) is added to the list because of re-identification of the unique type; (4) one scientific name ( Speotyto cunicularia ) is changed because of generic splitting; (5) one scientific name ( Phalacrocorax brasilianus ) is changed for nomenclature reasons, accompanied by a change in English name; (6) the spelling of one scientific name ( Neocrex colombianus ) is corrected; (7) to other English names are changed or corrected; and (8) one sequencing change is made. No new distributional information is included except as noted above (i.e. minor changes of distribution of distributional records within North America are not included). The twelve additions bring the number of species recognized as occurring within the Check-list area (main list) to 1957.

The Auk

Balancing fish-energy-cost tradeoffs through strategic basin-wide dam management

Dam management often involves tradeoffs among hydropower generation capacity, environmental impacts, and project costs. However, our understandings of such tradeoffs under a full range of dam management options remain limited, which hinders our ability to make sound and scientifically defensible dam management decisions. In order to assess the scope for theoretical tradeoffs, a dynamic model of hydropower production, important fish populations, and project costs was developed using the system dynamics modeling technique. Three dam management options investigated the likely outcomes from: dam removal, fishway installation (e.g., pool-and-weir, Denil, and fish lift), and no action. The model was applied to the Penobscot River located in Maine, United States as a proof of concept, where recent actions (i.e., dam removal and fishway construction) have been undertaken. We modeled theoretical influence of these actions on four significant sea-run fish (alewife Alosa pseudoharengus , American shad Alosa sapidissima , Atlantic salmon Salmo salar , and sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus ) by developing an index of spawner population potential based on population models for each species. Optimal dam management solutions may maximize spawner population potential and energy production to 60-62% of maximum achievable values while limiting the project cost to US$17 million (44% of the maximum value). Our results demonstrate that basin-scale management strategies may increase the migratory fish restoration while preserving hydropower generation capacity. Diversification of management options (e.g., combination of fishway installations, dam removals, and generation capacity) may increase the efficacy of strategic fish-energy-cost tradeoffs.

Maine

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr −1 , where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr −1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr −1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr −1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr −1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

Biogeosciences

One hundred years of volcano monitoring in Hawaii

In 2012 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the oldest of five volcano observatories in the United States, is commemorating the 100th anniversary of its founding. HVO's location, on the rim of Kilauea volcano (Figure 1)—one of the most active volcanoes on Earth—has provided an unprecedented opportunity over the past century to study processes associated with active volcanism and develop methods for hazards assessment and mitigation. The scientifically and societally important results that have come from 100 years of HVO's existence are the realization of one man's vision of the best way to protect humanity from natural disasters. That vision was a response to an unusually destructive decade that began the twentieth century, a decade that saw almost 200,000 people killed by the effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Hawai'i

Strengthening ties between the U.S. Geological Survey and Interstate Fisheries Commissions

Fish inhabiting marine coastal and Great Lakes waters of the United States forage, migrate, and reproduce without regard to human-made boundaries. In the mid-20th century, the 32 states along the U.S. coasts and Great Lakes recognized the growing need for coordinated, interjurisdictional fisheries management and formed four interstate or international fisheries commissions through federal legislation. While distinct in their authorities, each commission shares functions to support their regional partners, including coordinating fisheries science and supporting information sharing. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is a federal bureau focused exclusively on science with substantial fisheries research capacity. This empowers USGS to serve as an independent broker of scientific information, which is greatly appreciated by decision-making agencies. The USGS does not maintain broad infrastructure for engaging partners across regions. Therefore, collaboration between the USGS and fisheries commissions ensures that USGS fisheries science helps address the most pressing interjurisdictional management priorities. The USGS has worked with fisheries commissions for decades to a greater or lesser extent in each of the four coastal regions: Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf, and Great Lakes. In 2020, the USGS began efforts to cohesively strengthen these partnerships across the regions. In 2024, leadership from four USGS fisheries science centers and headquarters met with the four fisheries commissions in person for the first time during the American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting. During the gathering, the new Interstate Fisheries Commissions–USGS Partnership developed coordination mechanisms and identified shared science priorities where the USGS capacity best aligns with the science needs of the commissions. Here we describe the history of collaboration between the USGS and fisheries commissions and the emerging interregional partnership.

Fisheries

Effects of urban development on stream ecosystems in nine metropolitan study areas across the United States

Urban development is an important agent of environmental change in the United States. The urban footprint on the American landscape has expanded during a century and a half of almost continuous development. Eighty percent of Americans now live in metropolitan areas, and the advantages and challenges of living in these developed areas—convenience, congestion, employment, pollution—are part of the day-to-day realities of most Americans. Nowhere are the environmental changes associated with urban development more evident than in urban streams. Contaminants, habitat destruction, and increasing streamflow flashiness resulting from urban development have been associated with the disruption of biological communities, particularly the loss of sensitive aquatic species. Every stream is connected downstream to larger water bodies, including rivers, reservoirs, and ultimately coastal waters. Inputs of chemical contaminants or sediments at any point along the stream can cause degradation downstream with adverse effects on biological communities and on economically valuable resources, such as fisheries and tourism. In response to general concerns about the degradation of urban streams, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a national-scale, scientific investigation of the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems. Nine metropolitan study areas of the United States were selected—Portland, Oregon; Salt Lake City, Utah; Birmingham, Alabama; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Boston, Massachusetts; Denver, Colorado; Dallas, Texas; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The studies were conducted in Salt Lake City, Birmingham, and Boston in 1999–2000; in Atlanta, Raleigh, and Denver in 2002–2003; and in Portland, Dallas, and Milwaukee in 2003–2004. The comprehensive investigation of all nine studies focused on three broad questions of interest to decision makers: What are the primary effects of urban development on stream ecosystems? How do the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems vary regionally across the country? Which urban-related stressors are most closely linked to biological community degradation, and how can multiple stressors be managed to protect stream health as a watershed becomes increasingly urbanized?

Alabama;Colorado;Georgia;Massachusetts;North Carol

Perspectives on the future of host-microbe biology from the Council on Microbial Sciences of the American Society for Microbiology

Host-microbe biology (HMB) stands on the cusp of redefinition, challenging conventional paradigms to instead embrace a more holistic understanding of the microbial sciences. The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) Council on Microbial Sciences hosted a virtual retreat in 2023 to identify the future of the HMB field and innovations needed to advance the microbial sciences. The retreat presentations and discussions collectively emphasized the interconnectedness of microbes and their profound influence on humans, animals, and environmental health, as well as the need to broaden perspectives to fully embrace the complexity of these interactions. To advance HMB research, microbial scientists would benefit from enhancing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research to utilize expertise in diverse fields, integrate different disciplines, and promote equity and accessibility within HMB. Data integration will be pivotal in shaping the future of HMB research by bringing together varied scientific perspectives, new and innovative techniques, and ’omics approaches. ASM can empower under-resourced groups with the goal of ensuring that the benefits of cutting-edge research reach every corner of the scientific community. Thus, ASM will be poised to steer HMB toward a future that champions inclusivity, innovation, and accessible scientific progress.

mSphere

Management of conservation reserve program grasslands to meet wildlife habitat objectives

Numerous studies document environmental and social benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This report offers a synopsis of findings regarding effects of establishing CRP conservation practices on the quality and distribution of wildlife habitat in agricultural landscapes. On individual farms, year-round provision of wildlife habitat by the CRP may appear relatively insignificant. However, considered from multi-farm to National scales, such improvements in habitat and wildlife response have proven to be extensive and profound. Because CRP acres historically have been dominated by plantings of introduced and native grasses, this report focuses on issues pertaining to wildlife response to grass-dominated conservation practices. While the majority of CRP acres have been concentrated largely in the Great Plains and Corn Belt regions, 47 states (and Puerto Rico) have participated, resulting in measurable environmental benefits throughout the United States. Numerous investigations of habitat use by a wide range of wildlife species reveal that periodic management of CRP lands can enhance benefits through and beyond a typical 10 year general CRP contract. Over its 28-year existence, the CRP has evolved into an effective integration of conservation and agricultural policies targeting fragile and environmentally-valuable lands. Landowners with fields enrolled in the CRP often are the first to observe improvement in the landscape, greater numbers and kinds of wildlife, cleaner water and air, less erosion, and they have the satisfaction of seeing fragile lands serve better purposes. There is persistent concern that improvement seen in wildlife habitat and other environmental profits delivered by the CRP are ephemeral and last only as long as funding supports the existence of the program and its vegetative cover is properly managed. An involved American population will continue to expect governmental policies to enhance long-term protection of natural resources and public health. Recent investigations furnish evidence that the collective economic value of environmental benefits delivered by the CRP likely exceed program costs. The mounting significance placed on environmentally-responsible land management is based in part on public recognition that social, aesthetic, and recreational values enhance the traditional uses of agricultural land.

Scientific Investigations Report

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report

Binational ecological risk assessment of bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) for the Great Lakes Basin.

Bigheaded carps (Bighead and Silver carps) are considered a potential threat to the Great Lakes basin. A binational ecological risk assessment was conducted to provide scientifically defensible advice for managers and decision-makers in Canada and the United States. This risk assessment looked at the likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment, and spread of bigheaded carps to obtain an overall probability of introduction. Arrival routes assessed were physical connections and human-mediated releases. The risk assessment ranked physical connections (specifically the Chicago Area Waterway System) as the most likely route for arrival into the Great Lakes basin. Results of the risk assessment show that there is enough food and habitat for bigheaded carp survival in the Great Lakes, especially in Lake Erie and productive embayments in the other lakes. Analyses of tributaries around the Canadian Great Lakes and the American waters of Lake Erie indicate that there are many suitable tributaries for bigheaded carp spawning. Should bigheaded carps establish in the Great Lakes, their spread would not likely be limited and several ecological consequences can be expected to occur. These consequences include competition for planktonic food leading to reduced growth rates, recruitment and abundance of planktivores. Subsequently this would lead to reduced stocks of piscivores and abundance of fishes with pelagic, early life stages. Overall risk is highest for lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie, followed by Lake Ontario then Lake Superior. To avoid the trajectory of the invasion process and prevent or minimize anticipated consequences, it is important to continue to focus efforts on reducing the probability of introduction of these species at either the arrival, survival, establishment, or spread stage (depending on location).

Great Lakes Basin