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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Groundwater availability in the Lahaina District, west Maui, Hawai'i

Most of the public water supply in the Lahaina District, west Maui, Hawai'i, is pumped from a freshwater lens in volcanic rocks. Because of population growth, groundwater withdrawals from wells in this area are expected to increase from about 5.8 million gallons per day in 2007 to more than 11 million gallons per day by 2030. Currently (2011), the salinity of water pumped from some of the wells in the area exceeds acceptable limits for drinking water. The expected increasing demand for water in an area in which the salinity of water is already unacceptable has led to concern over the long-term sustainability of withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow and transport model was developed to simulate the effects of hypothetical withdrawal and recharge scenarios on water levels and on the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater. The model was constructed using time-varying recharge, withdrawals, and ocean levels. Hydraulic characteristics used to construct the model were initially based on published estimates but ultimately were varied to obtain better agreement between simulated and measured water levels and salinity profiles in the modeled area during 1926–2008. Scenarios included groundwater withdrawal at 2008–09 rates and locations with projected recharge (based on 2000–04 land use, no agricultural irrigation, and the rainfall record for the period 1926–2004) and withdrawal at redistributed rates and locations with several different recharge scenarios. Simulation results indicate that continuing the 2008–09 withdrawal rates and distribution (6.3 million gallons per day from 21 wells) into the future would result in decreased water levels, a thinner freshwater lens, and increased salinity of water pumped from wells. Groundwater demand projections and proposed new well sites were used to produce a projected withdrawal rate and distribution during 2010–39. Simulation results from this projected withdrawal scenario (11.2 million gallons per day from 28 wells, including 10 proposed wells) also indicate decreased water levels, a thinner freshwater lens, increased water salinity, and unacceptable salinity at several current withdrawal sites, mainly in the Honokōwai Aquifer System; however, more groundwater is available than in the previous scenario. A simulation in which injection of treated wastewater is stopped indicates that several wells will have increased salinities compared to the scenario in which injection continues. A scenario in which increased groundwater withdrawal was redistributed in an attempt to maximize withdrawal while maintaining acceptable salinities in the withdrawn water was simulated. The redistributed withdrawal simulates 20.7 million gallons per day of withdrawal from 26 wells or well fields in the Lahaina District. Simulation results indicate the following: (1) average water levels decrease by about 0.5–1 feet and the transition zone rises 20–50 feet in some areas after 30 years, mainly in the Launiupoko Aquifer System near the proposed wells, and (2), all wells produce water with salinities in the acceptable class (less than one-percent seawater salinity) after 30 years.

Hawai'i

Strike-slip 23 January 2018 MW 7.9 Gulf of Alaska rare intraplate earthquake: Complex rupture of a fracture zone system

Large intraplate earthquakes in oceanic lithosphere are rare and usually related to regions of diffuse deformation within the oceanic plate. The 23 January 2018 M W 7.9 strike-slip Gulf of Alaska earthquake ruptured an oceanic fracture zone system offshore Kodiak Island. Bathymetric compilations show a muted topographic expression of the fracture zone due to the thick sediment that covers oceanic basement but the fracture zone system can be identified by offset N-S magnetic anomalies and E-W linear zones in the vertical gravity gradient. Back-projection from global seismic stations reveals that the initial rupture at first propagated from the epicenter to the north, likely rupturing along a weak zone parallel to the ocean crustal fabric. The rupture then changed direction to eastward directed with most energy emitted on Aka fracture zone resulting in an unusual multi-fault earthquake. Similarly, the aftershocks show complex behavior and are related to two different tectonic structures: (1) events along N-S trending oceanic fabric, which ruptured mainly strike-slip and additionally, in normal and oblique slip mechanisms and (2) strike-slip events along E-W oriented fracture zones. To explain the complex faulting behavior we adopt the classical stress and strain partitioning concept and propose a generalized model for large intra-oceanic strike-slip earthquakes of trench-oblique oriented fracture zones/ocean plate fabric near subduction zones. Taking the Kodiak asperity position of 1964 maximum afterslip and outer-rise Coulomb stress distribution into account, we propose that the unusual 2018 Gulf of Alaska moment release was stress transferred to the incoming oceanic plate from co- and post-processes of the nearby great 1964 M W 9.2 megathrust earthquake.

Alaska

Accurate predictions of microscale oxygen barometry in basaltic glasses using V K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy: A multivariate approach

Because magmatic oxygen fugacity ( f O2 ) exerts a primary control on the discrete vanadium (V) valence states that will exist in quenched melts, V valence proxies for f O2 , measured using X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES), can provide highly sensitive measurements of the redox conditions in basaltic melts. However, published calibrations for basaltic glasses primarily relate measured intensities of specific spectral features to V valence or oxygen fugacity. These models have not exploited information contained within the entire XANES spectrum, which also provide a measure of changes in V chemical state as a function of f O2 . Multivariate analysis (MVA) holds significant promise for the development of calibration models that employ the full XANES spectral range. In this study, new calibration models are developed using MVA partial least-squares (PLS) regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression to predict the f O2 of equilibration in glasses of basaltic composition directly. The models are then tested on a suite of natural glasses from mid-ocean ridge basalts and from Kilauea. The models relate the measured XANES spectral features directly to buffer-relative f O2 as the predicted variable, avoiding the need for an external measure of the V valence in the experimental glasses used to train the models. It is also shown that by predicting buffer-relative f O2 directly, these models also minimize temperature-relative uncertainties in the calibration. The calibration developed using the Lasso regression model, using a Lasso hyperparameter value of α = 0.0008, yields nickel-nickel oxide (NNO) relative f O2 predictions with a root-mean-square-error of ±0.33 log units. When applied to natural basaltic glasses, the V MVA calibration model generally yields predicted NNO-relative f O2 values that are within the analytical uncertainty of what is calculated using Fe XANES to predict Fe 3+ /ΣFe. When applied to samples of natural basaltic glass collected in 2014 from an active lava flow at Kilauea, a mean f O2 of NNO-1.15 ± 0.19 (1σ) is calculated, which is generally consistent with other published f O2 estimates for subaerial Kilauea lavas. When applied to a sample of pillow-rim basaltic glass dredged from the East Pacific Rise, calculated f O2 varies from NNO-2.67 (±0.33) to NNO-3.72 (±0.33) with distance from the quenched pillow rim. Fe oxybarometry in this sample provides an f O2 of NNO-2.54 ± 0.19 (1σ), which is in good agreement with that provided by the V oxybarometry within the uncertainties of the modeling. However, the data may indicate that V XANES oxybarometry has greater sensitivity to small changes in f O2 at these more reduced redox conditions than can be detected using Fe XANES.

Hawaii

Greenhouse gas balances in coastal ecosystems: Current challenges in “blue carbon” estimation and significance to national greenhouse gas inventories

Coastal wetlands are defined herein as inundated, vegetated ecosystems with hydrology, and biogeochemistry influenced by sea levels, at timescales of tides to millennia. Coastal wetlands are necessary components of global greenhouse gas estimation and scenario modeling, both for continental and oceanic mass balances. The carbon pools and fluxes on coastal lands, especially those influenced by tidal drivers and sea level rise, are distinct in their magnitude, rates, and uncertainties. We describe herein the pathways taken for a US scale estimation of blue carbon based on annual timesteps and bottom-up modeling, as appropriate for the first effort to include coastal wetlands in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI). As such, we summarize multiple efforts to reconcile mapping, modeling, and measurement issues and we report the assumptions we made based on data availability. Provided as requested feedback to the IPCC. Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) evaluation of guidance criteria, these analyses synergistically point scientists, practitioners, and policy makers toward the greatest uncertainties to address in future assessments: coastal wetland methane emissions and carbon dioxide emissions associated with the fate of eroded soil. This is a story of what was learned in the 2014–2018 NASA Carbon Monitoring System project (https://carbon.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/cms_projects.pl), how it informs “good practice” (IPCC 2006) in reporting coastal wetland emissions and removals, and where it points scientifically toward data needs at different temporal and spatial scales.

Book chapter

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90-125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12-16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the "escapement" due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling

Geohydrology and simulated ground-water flow, Plymouth-Carver aquifer, southeastern Massachusetts

The Plymouth-Carver aquifer underlies an area of 140 square miles and is the second largest aquifer in areal extent in Massachusetts. It is composed primarily of saturated glacial sand and gravel. The water-table and bedrock surface were mapped and used to determine saturated thickness of the aquifer, which ranged from less than 20 feet to greater than 200 feet. Ground water is present mainly under unconfined conditions, except in a few local areas such as beneath Plymouth Harbor. Recharge to the aquifer is derived almost entirely from precipitation and averages about 1.15 million gallons per day per square mile. Water discharges from the aquifer by pumping, evapotranspiration, direct evaporation from the water table, and seepage to streams, ponds, wetlands, bogs, and the ocean. In 1985, water use was about 59.6 million gallons per day, of which 82 percent was used for cranberry production. The Plymouth-Carver aquifer was simulated by a three-dimensional, finite difference ground-water-flow model. Most model boundaries represent the natural hydrologic boundaries of the aquifer. The model simulates aquifer recharge, withdrawals by pumped wells, leakage through streambeds, and discharge to the ocean. The model was calibrated for steady-state and transient conditions. Model results were compared with measured values of hydraulic head and ground-water discharge. Results of simulations indicate that the modeled ground-water system closely simulates actual aquifer conditions. Four hypothetical ground-water development alternatives were simulated to demonstrate the use of the model and to examine the effects on the ground-water system. Simulation of a 2-year period of no recharge and average pumping rates that occurred from 1980-85 resulted in water-level declines exceeding 5 feet throughout most of the aquifer and a decrease of 54 percent in average ground-water discharge to streams. In a second simulation, four wells in the northern part of the area were pumped at 10.4 million gallons per day in excess of rates simulated in the steady-state model for the four wells. This resulted in water-level declines of 2 feet or more in an area of 25 square miles and a decline in average ground-water discharge to streams of 6 percent. When this pumpage was simulated as recharge to the aquifer, water levels beneath the recharge area rose more than 40 feet, and ground-water discharge remained equal to average discharge in the calibrated steady-state model. In a third simulation, all 21 existing production wells were pumped at nearly the design capacity of 17.8 million gallons per day; this pumping rate produced water-level declines of less than 2 feet throughout most of the aquifer. When simulated pumpage was increased to 32.8 million gallons per day from existing wells and from 15 additional wells, the area where water-level declines exceeded 2 feet significantly increased. In another set of simulations, a well field close to a stream was pumped at rates of 2, 4, and 6 million gallons per day. At a pumping rate of 6 million gallons per day, ground-water discharge to the stream decreased 34 percent during periods of normal precipitation and 56 percent during drought conditions.

Massachusetts

Evaluation of the 1985-1990 IGRF secular variation candidates

The IGRF secular variation model for 1985-1990 was adopted by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy at its Prague meeting in August 1985 as an average of the three candidate models submitted to the committee. We compared the three models at epoch 1985.0 against each other and against a new model based on observatory data available as of July 1, 1985. These comparisons showed that one of the three candidate models disagreed more with the other two and our model, especially in the eastern Pacific. None of the candidate models was seen to respond to a change in the secular variation of the vertical component that appears to have taken place most strongly in the western Pacific area since 1982. The lack of satellite data was seen to be a significant handicap towards prediction of the field change over most of the Earth's surface, especially the southern oceans. Maximum errors of any model are estimated to be of the order of 80 nT a-1. ?? 1987.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Physical response of a back-barrier estuary to a post-tropical cyclone

This paper presents a modeling investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport response of Chincoteague Bay (VA/MD, USA) to Hurricane Sandy using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) modeling system. Several simulation scenarios with different combinations of remote and local forces were conducted to identify the dominant physical processes. While 80% of the water level increase in the bay was due to coastal sea level at the peak of the storm, a rich spatial and temporal variability in water surface slope was induced by local winds and waves. Local wind increased vertical mixing, horizontal exchanges, and flushing through the inlets. Remote waves (swell) enhanced southward flow through wave setup gradients between the inlets, and increased locally generated wave heights. Locally generated waves had a negligible effect on water level but reduced the residual flow up to 70% due to enhanced apparent roughness and breaking-induced forces. Locally generated waves dominated bed shear stress and sediment resuspension in the bay. Sediment transport patterns mirrored the interior coastline shape and generated deposition on inundated areas. The bay served as a source of fine sediment to the inner shelf, and the ocean-facing barrier island accumulated sand from landward-directed overwash. Despite the intensity of the storm forcing, the bathymetric changes in the bay were on the order of centimeters. This work demonstrates the spectrum of responses to storm forcing, and highlights the importance of local and remote processes on back-barrier estuarine function.

Chincoteague Bay

Long-term groundwater availability in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū aquifer systems, Maui, Hawai‘i

Groundwater levels have declined since the 1940s in the Wailuku area of central Maui, Hawai‘i, on the eastern flank of West Maui volcano, mainly in response to increased groundwater withdrawals. Available data since the 1980s also indicate a thinning of the freshwater lens and an increase in chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. These trends, combined with projected increases in demand for groundwater in central Maui, have led to concerns over groundwater availability and have highlighted a need to improve general understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū areas of central Maui. A numerical groundwater model was constructed to simulate the flow and salinity of groundwater in central Maui. The model simulates the effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and recharge on water levels, freshwater-lens thicknesses, and chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. The model incorporates updated water-budget estimates of groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge, seepage in stream channels, and inflow from inland areas. Mean annual groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge was estimated using a daily water-budget model and the most current data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, for the study area for nine historical periods from 1926 through 2012: 1926–69, 1970–79, 1980–84, 1985–89, 1990–94, 1995–99, 2000–04, 2005–09, and 2010–12. The water-budget model also estimated groundwater recharge based on one hypothetical scenario that used 1980–2010 rainfall and 2017 land cover. For the nine historical periods, estimated recharge from infiltration and direct recharge within the area of the groundwater model ranged from 30.4 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 2010–12 to 98.7 Mgal/d during 1926–69. Variability in recharge during these periods mainly reflects changes in rainfall and irrigation over time. Between 2010 and 2014, streamflow restoration in previously diverted streams resulted in an estimated increase in recharge from seepage in stream channels of about 12.5 Mgal/d. Average groundwater inflow of about 39.6 Mgal/d from inland, dike-intruded areas to the main area of interest was estimated from an existing island-wide numerical groundwater-flow model, which is at a larger scale and incorporates a greater number of simplifying assumptions. The numerical groundwater model developed for this study was calibrated to 1926–2012 transient water levels, vertical salinity profiles, and chloride concentrations of water pumped by production wells in the study area. The model was then used to evaluate one future recharge and six selected withdrawal scenarios, developed in consultation with the Maui Department of Water Supply, in terms of long-term changes in water level and 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface. The groundwater model was also used to simulate the future salinity of water withdrawn by existing and proposed production wells. The simulations were run to steady-state conditions, providing an estimate of the long-term effects of changes in withdrawal and recharge on the groundwater resource. Results of the simulated future withdrawal scenarios indicate that, relative to 2017–18 rates, the scenarios’ long-term effect of increased withdrawals ultimately leads to lower water levels and a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface indicating a thinning of the freshwater lens. Results also indicate that the increased withdrawals produce some groundwater with chloride concentration below 250 milligrams per liter and some groundwater with higher chloride concentration. The amount of drawdown near production wells and the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and spatial distribution of the withdrawals. The model was also used to evaluate how groundwater availability may be affected for a drier recharge scenario based on a published study of future climate. Model results of the future recharge scenario indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge is a controlling factor for (1) water levels, (2) the 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and (3) the quality of water withdrawn from production wells in the Wailuku area. Coupled with reduced groundwater recharge (with all other factors remaining equal), the modeled future withdrawals in the scenario would tend to cause lower water levels, a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and increased salinity of water withdrawn from production wells. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the long-term hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Maui. The model has several limitations, including its non-uniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities. Short-term effects of changes in recharge and withdrawals—and optimization of pumping rates to meet increased demand for water with acceptable salinity—are possible conditions for future simulation analyses.

Hawaii

Priorities for IOOS ® Data Management and Communications (DMAC)

Dramatic increases in the volume of online data and rapid advances in information technology have transformed many aspects of our society. In the coastal ocean, the amount of data is also growing dramatically due to new sensor and modeling technologies. Lagging behind this deluge of ocean data, however, is an effective framework of standards, protocols, tools and culture needed to transform the way we generate knowledge and value from ocean data. The Data Management and Communications (DMAC) sub-system was envisioned to provide such an information management capability for IOOS®, promoting standards and policies to be implemented by data providers across the IOOS enterprise. DMAC needs to build upon the successes and lessons learned during development of web service standards and promote a set of end-to-end standards and procedures for the entire ocean-data life cycle, including documentation through metadata, quality control and quality assurance, effective data discovery, and stewardship through archiving. Because information technology is constantly changing, a multiyear, top-down design and implementation plan is not workable. DMAC should start by promoting a set of protocols that are functional for specific use cases, creating a modular framework in which modules can be replaced as technologies change. In addition to promoting protocols, DMAC needs to support training, flexible online documentation, support, and social networking that enable users to share code, techniques and experiences. Through this bottom-up approach, trust and understanding will foster adoption by the community. Finally, a compliance and certification process should be developed that allows IOOS to ensure that they meet the needs of customers and other stakeholders while complying with regulatory requirements related to the data. If this approach is followed, we will enable breakthroughs in ocean data–driven technology similar to those common elsewhere in our society, fulfilling the broader mission of IOOS.

Book

Patterns and controlling factors of species diversity in the Arctic Ocean

Aim The Arctic Ocean is one of the last near-pristine regions on Earth, and, although human activities are expected to impact on Arctic ecosystems, we know very little about baseline patterns of Arctic Ocean biodiversity. This paper aims to describe Arctic Ocean-wide patterns of benthic biodiversity and to explore factors related to the large-scale species diversity patterns. Location Arctic Ocean. Methods We used large ostracode and foraminiferal datasets to describe the biodiversity patterns and applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test the degree to which these patterns are potentially governed by environmental factors, such as temperature, productivity, seasonality, ice cover and others. To test environmental control of the observed diversity patterns, subsets of samples for which all environmental parameters were available were analysed with multiple regression and model averaging. Results Well-known negative latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs) were found in metazoan Ostracoda, but the LSDGs were unimodal with an intermediate maximum with respect to latitude in protozoan foraminifera. Depth species diversity gradients were unimodal, with peaks in diversity shallower than those in other oceans. Our modelling results showed that several factors are significant predictors of diversity, but the significant predictors were different among shallow marine ostracodes, deep-sea ostracodes and deep-sea foraminifera. Main conclusions On the basis of these Arctic Ocean-wide comprehensive datasets, we document large-scale diversity patterns with respect to latitude and depth. Our modelling results suggest that the underlying mechanisms causing these species diversity patterns are unexpectedly complex. The environmental parameters of temperature, surface productivity, seasonality of productivity, salinity and ice cover can all play a role in shaping large-scale diversity patterns, but their relative importance may depend on the ecological preferences of taxa and the oceanographic context of regions. These results suggest that a multiplicity of variables appear to be related to community structure in this system.

Journal of Biogeography

Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method

Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant density, height, and to a certain degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance for future observational and modeling work to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space.

Geoscientific Model Development

Surface electromagnetic geophysical exploration of the ground-water resources of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, a caribbean carbonate island

Two electromagnetic surface geophysical techniques were used to explore the ground-water resources of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico—a 55-square-kilometer island located between Puerto Rico and Hispañiola, Isla de Mona is a tectonically uplifted carbonate plateau of Neogene age that has an average elevation of about 50 meters above mean sea level. This plateau is bounded by vertical cliffs except on the southwest where there is a narrow, 3-square-kilometer coastal plain. The coastal plain is composed of Quaternary carbonate deposits, and has a maximum elevation of less than 10 meters above mean sea level. No large-scale surface-water features are found on the plateau or on the coastal plain. To better understand the aquifer characteristics of the island, terrain conductivity and transient electromagnetic data were collected on the coastal plain and on the plateau. Computer programs were used to analyze quantitatively the electromagnetic data. Geoelectric models were produced to approximate the depth below land surface of the saline-freshwater interface underlying both the coastal plain and the plateau. Because the geophysical methods could not discern the water-table, it was assumed that it was near sea level. The thickness of the freshwater lens was estimated by subtracting the elevation of the land surface above mean sea level from the depth to the saline-freshwater interface as determined from the geophysical data. Results from the geophysical methods and water-level observations indicate that a freshwater lens with a maximum thickness of about 10 meters exists under the coastal plain. This lens thins towards the ocean, and it also thins away from the ocean toward the plateau. The model produced from the transient electromagnetic data indicates that the freshwater lens under the plateau has a maximum thickness of about 14 meters, which is a much thinner lens than previously estimated. A freshwater lens thickness of 14 meters is similar to direct measurements by divers in Cueva de Agua at Punta los Ingleses (located on the southeast coast), and observations by divers of freshwater seeps into the ocean at depths of 8 to 10 meters along the north coast cliffs after a major rainstorm. Ground-water flow in the coastal plain appears to be radial from the center of the freshwater mound. At the intersection between the coastal plain and the plateau, the flow is parallel to the coastline. The direction of flow on the rest of the plateau could not be determined accurately with the available data.

Carbonates and Evaporites

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics in freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO 2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.

Ecological Monographs

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Journal of Flood Risk Management

Nd-isotopes in selected mantle-derived rocks and minerals and their implications for mantle evolution

The Sm-Nd systematics in a variety of mantle-derived samples including kimberlites, alnoite, carbonatite, pyroxene and amphibole inclusions in alkali basalts and xenolithic eclogites, granulites and a pyroxene megacryst in kimberlites are reported. The additional data on kimberlites strengthen our earlier conclusion that kimberlites are derived from a relatively undifferentiated chondritic mantle source. This conclusion is based on the observation that the e{open}Nd values of most of the kimberlites are near zero. In contrast with the kimberlites, their garnet lherzolite inclusions show both time-averaged Nd enrichment and depletion with respect to Sm. Separated clinopyroxenes in eclogite xenoliths from the Roberts Victor kimberlite pipe show both positive and negative e{open}Nd values suggesting different genetic history. A whole rock lower crustal scapolite granulite xenolith from the Matsoku kimberlite pipe shows a negative e{open}Nd value of -4.2, possibly representative of the base of the crust in Lesotho. It appears that all inclusions, mafic and ultramafic, in kimberlites are unrelated to their kimberlite host. The above data and additional Sm-Nd data on xenoliths in alkali basalts, alpine peridotite and alnoite-carbonatites are used to construct a model for the upper 200 km of the earth's mantle - both oceanic and continental. The essential feature of this model is the increasing degree of fertility of the mantle with depth. The kimberlite's source at depths below 200 km in the subcontinental mantle is the most primitive in this model, and this primitive layer is also extended to the suboceanic mantle. However, it is clear from the Nd-isotopic data in the xenoliths of the continental kimberlites that above 200 km the continental mantle is distinctly different from their suboceanic counterpart. ?? 1980 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology

Late Quaternary sea-level history of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, USA: A test of tectonic uplift and glacial isostatic adjustment models

In 1979, S. Uyeda and H. Kanamori proposed a tectonic model with two end members of a subduction-boundary continuum: the “Chilean” type (shallow dip of the subducting plate, great thrust events, compression, and uplift of the overriding plate) and a “Mariana” type (steep dip of the subducting plate, no great thrust events, tension, and no uplift). This concept has been used to explain variable rates of Quaternary uplift around the Pacific Rim, yet no uplift rates have been determined for the Mariana Islands themselves, one of the end members in this model. We studied the late Quaternary Tanapag Limestone, which rims much of the eastern and southern coasts of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands, with elevations of ∼13 m to ∼30 m. Samples from 12 well-preserved corals ( Acropora , Porites , and Goniastrea ) yielded U-series ages ranging from ca. 134 ka to ca. 126 ka. These ages correlate the emergent reef of the Tanapag Limestone with the last interglacial period, when sea level was several meters above present. Ages and measured reef elevations from the Tanapag Limestone, along with paleo–sea-level data, yield relatively low late Quaternary uplift rates of 0.002–0.19 m/k.y., consistent with the Uyeda-Kanamori model. A review of data from other localities near subduction zones around the Pacific Basin, however, indicates that many coastlines do not fit the model. Uplift rates along the Chilean coast are predicted to be relatively high, but field studies indicate they are low. On some coastlines, relatively high uplift rates are better explained by subduction of seamounts or submarine ridges rather than subduction zone geometry. Despite the low long-term uplift rate on Saipan, the island also hosts an emergent, low-elevation (+3.9–4.0 m) reef with corals in growth position below a notch (+4.2 m). The corals are dated to 3.9–3.1 ka. The occurrence of this young, emergent reef is likely not due to tectonic uplift; instead, it is interpreted to be the result of glacial isostatic adjustment processes after the end of the last glacial period. Our findings are consistent with similar observations on tectonically stable or slowly uplifting islands elsewhere in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and agree with numerical models of a higher-than-present Holocene sea level in this region due to glacial isostatic adjustment processes.

Northern Mariana Islands, Saipan

Hydrodynamics and sediment mobility processes over a degraded senile coral reef

Coral reefs can influence hydrodynamics and morphodynamics by dissipating and refracting incident wave energy, modifying circulation patterns, and altering sediment transport pathways. In this study, the sediment and hydrodynamic response of a senile (dead) barrier reef (Crocker Reef, located in the upper portion of the Florida Reef Tract) to storms and quiescent conditions was evaluated using field observations and the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport model. Waves, circulation, and resultant sediment mobility were modeled across different reef zones. Sediment mobility during quiescent periods and the passage of far-field storms are driven by nonbreaking waves and, to a lesser degree, regional circulation. Spatial variability in these processes produces the present-day distribution of sediment grain size at Crocker Reef, wherein finer-grain material along a shallow central ridge is frequently mobilized (43% to 62% of the time), winnowed away, and deposited along the lower-energy flanks and in the fore reef where sand mobility occurs less frequently (32% to 43% and 1% to 22% of the time, respectively). Analysis of wave conditions for the period of 2006–2014 supports that wave heights rarely exceed the threshold for breaking (0.1% and 0.3% at the reef crest and at the reef flat, respectively), predominantly during the passage of tropical storms. There is a shift to a wave-breaking regime during near-field storms, creating the potential for mobilization of larger material and enhanced reef degradation. Sediment mobility can be enhanced due to wave skewness or the generation of free infragravity waves during periods of depth-induced wave breaking.

Florida