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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Do observer fatigue and taxon-bias compromise visual encounter surveys for small vertebrates?

Context. Visual encounter surveying is a standard animal inventory method, modifications of which (e.g. distance sampling and repeated count surveys) are used for modelling population density. However, a variety of factors may bias visual survey counts. Aims. The aim of the present study was to evaluate three observer-related biases: (1) whether fatigue compromises detection rate as a survey occasion progresses; (2) whether long-term fatigue or boredom compromise detection rates over the course of a survey period; and (3) whether observers exhibit biases in detection rates of different animal taxa. Methods. We analysed >2.3 × 10 4 observations of lizards and small mammals from nocturnal pedestrian visual encounter surveys, each 4 h in duration, conducted by a pool of 29 observers, each of whom surveyed for up to 31 nights. Key results. Detections of sleeping (diurnal) emerald tree skinks ( Lamprolepis smaragdina ) exhibited a small but statistically verified decline as the evening progressed, whereas detections of sleeping (diurnal) green anoles ( Anolis carolinensis ) increased as the evening progressed. Detections of nocturnal geckos (several species pooled) showed a weak and non-significant declining trend. Small mammal sightings (rats, shrews and mice pooled) declined strongly over the course of an evening. The participants saw greater or equal numbers of animals the more nights they surveyed. Most participants exhibited statistically significant, and often strong, taxonomic detection bias compared with the pool of peer observers. The skills of some observers appeared to be consistently above average; others consistently below average. Conclusions. Data on sleeping lizards suggest that neither short-term nor long-term observer fatigue is of much concern for 4-h visual searches. On the contrary, differences among observers in taxonomic bias and overall detection skills pose a problem for data interpretation. Implications. By comparing temporal detection patterns of immobile (e.g. sleeping) with actively moving animal taxa, sampling biases attributable to searcher fatigue versus the animals’ circadian rhythm can be disentangled and, if need be, statistically corrected for. Observer skill differences and observer-specific taxonomic biases may hamper efforts to statistically evaluate survey results, unless explicitly included as covariates in population models.

Wildlife Research

Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake

Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.

Earthquake Spectra

Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

Conference Paper

Mechanisms of aquatic species invasions across the SALCC - an update

The USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database (NAS; nas.er.usgs.gov) is a comprehensive tool for demonstrating where and when nonindigenous species have been sighted across the U.S. Information in the database is used for state-level invasive species management plans, to focus monitoring efforts, for public education, predictive modeling, and for avoiding unintentional introductions during inter-basin water transfers. Our project represents the first attempt to utilize the NAS Database within the context of a Landscape Conservation Cooperative conservation blueprint. A significant amount of effort during the past year was dedicated to determining the most appropriate use of these data for the purposes of identifying the mechanisms and patterns of aquatic species invasions. Descriptive analyses were first undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal characteristics of the SALCC subset of NAS data.

Report

Portable optically stimulated luminescence age map of a paleoseismic exposure

The quality and quantity of geochronologic data used to constrain the history of major earthquakes in a region exerts a first-order control on the accuracy of seismic hazard assessments that affect millions of people. However, evaluations of geochronological data are limited by uncertainties related to inherently complex depositional processes that may vary spatially and temporally. To improve confidence in models of earthquake timing, we use a high-density suite of radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages with a grid of 342 portable OSL samples to explore spatiotemporal trends in geochronological data across an exemplary normal fault colluvial wedge exposure. The data reveal a two-dimensional age map of the paleoseismic exposure and demonstrate how vertical and horizontal trends in age relate to dominant sedimentary facies and soil characteristics at the site. Portable OSL data provide critical context for the interpretation of 14 C and OSL ages, show that geochronologic age boundaries between pre- and post-earthquake deposits do not match stratigraphic contacts, and provide the basis for selecting alternate Bayesian models of earthquake timing. Our results demonstrate the potential to use emergent, portable OSL methods to dramatically improve paleoseismic constraints on earthquake timing.

Utah

Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940-2100

Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using historic values and downscaled precipitation predictions from three general circulation models and three emissions scenarios. We calibrated RUSLE results using field sediment measurements. RUSLE is appealing for regional scale modeling because it uses climate forecasts with monthly resolution and other widely available values including soil texture, slope and land use. Sediment accumulation rates will continue near historic levels through 2070 and will be sufficient to cause most playas (if not already filled) to fill with sediment within the next 100 years in the absence of mitigation. Land use surrounding the playa, whether grassland or tilled cropland, is more influential in sediment accumulation than climate-driven precipitation change.

Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;Oklahoma;Texas

Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF)—A graphical user interface supporting implementation of simple engineering mine cost analyses of quantitative mineral resource assessment simulations

Economic evaluations of undiscovered mineral resources provide important context in which to consider the results of quantitative mineral resource assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey economic analysis method uses a simple engineering cost model approach developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines that applies mine and mill engineering cost equations to simulated undiscovered deposits. The important characteristics of these deposits are derived from Monte Carlo simulations that combine probabilistic estimates of undiscovered deposits that might occur in a study area and a grade-tonnage model defined for a specific deposit type. This report describes the Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF), a graphical user interface (GUI) tool that applies a set of mine cost equations to the deposits under consideration. RAEF, which is written in the open-source statistical programming language R, is an easy-to-use tool to apply user-defined mine, mill, and study area parameters to simulated deposits. For a given deposit type, it estimates the undiscovered resources that might be economic to extract. In addition, RAEF provides a series of graphical, tabular, and statistical summaries that document the results of the economic filter analysis.

Techniques and Methods

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

Hydrological alteration, which may be exacerbated by climate change, is known to facilitate aquatic species invasion. Altered hydrology, invasive species, and the additive effects of these stressors pose a threat to aquatic biodiversity. Understanding extinction risk in the context of these stressors is crucial for prioritizing conservation efforts. As case studies, three narrow‐ranged endemic crayfish species of conservation concern ( Faxonius marchandi , Faxonius roberti , and Cambarus hubbsi ) in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri, USA, were used to examine the effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to model the population dynamics of these imperilled species, assess how these populations may be affected under increased invasion effects and intensified drought, determine potential refuge effects, and examine the sensitivity of quasi‐extinction to model parameters. ramas‐metapop was used to construct stage‐based demographic models. Terminal extinction risk, median time to quasi‐extinction, and metapopulation occupancy were used to assess population viability under different scenarios. Cambarus hubbsi appears to be highly susceptible to decline if survival rates are reduced by simulated drought, as they have low reproductive potential and mature slowly. Models indicated that potential refuges allow F. roberti and C. hubbsi to persist, even when invasion and drought effects were extreme. Conversely, barriers to dispersal for F. marchandi led to reduced quasi‐extinction times and the greatest extinction risk under most invasion scenarios. Quasi‐extinction was most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival for all species examined, which indicates that improved estimates of stage‐specific demographic parameters for crayfish will improve model predictions. An increased understanding of the mechanisms of displacement of native crayfish by invasive crayfish is needed for most crayfish species. Limiting the spread of invasive species, maintaining natural habitat and hydrological regimes, and gaining insight into life histories and demographic parameters will increase the ability to conserve endemic and imperilled crayfish.

Arkansas, Missouri

Dynamic occupancy modeling of temperate marine fish in area-based closures

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to model the spatial structure of species in the marine environment, however, most fail to account for detectability of the target species. This can result in underestimates of occupancy, where nondetection is conflated with absence. The site occupancy model (SOM) overcomes this failure by treating occupancy as a latent variable of the model and incorporates a detection submodel to account for variability in detection rates. These have rarely been applied in the context of marine fish and never for the multiseason dynamic occupancy model (DOM). In this study, a DOM is developed for a designated species of concern, cusk ( Brosme brosme ), over a four-season period. Making novel use of a high-resolution 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model, detectability of cusk is considered as a function of current speed and algae cover. Algal cover on the seabed is measured from video surveys to divide the study area into two distinct regions: those with canopy forming species of algae and those without (henceforth bottom types). Modeled estimates of the proportion of sites occupied in each season are 0.88, 0.45, 0.74, and 0.83. These are significantly greater than the proportion of occupied sites measured from underwater video observations which are 0.57, 0.28, 0.43, and 0.57. Individual fish are detected more frequently with increasing current speed in areas lacking canopy and less frequently with increasing current speed in areas with canopy. The results indicate that, where possible, SDM studies for all marine species should take account of detectability to avoid underestimating the proportion of sites occupied at a given study area. Sampling closed areas or areas of conservation often requires the use of nonphysical, low impact sampling methods like camera surveys. These methods inherently result in detection probabilities less than one, an issue compounded by time-varying features of the environment that are rarely accounted for marine studies. This work highlights the use of modeled hydrodynamics as a tool to correct some of this imbalance.

Gulf of Maine

Forage nutritive quality in the Serengeti ecosystem: The roles of fire and herbivory

Fire and herbivory are important determinants of nutrient availability in savanna ecosystems. Fire and herbivory effects on the nutritive quality of savanna vegetation can occur directly, independent of changes in the plant community, or indirectly, via effects on the plant community. Indirect effects can be further subdivided into those occurring because of changes in plant species composition or plant abundance (i.e., quality versus quantity). We studied relationships between fire, herbivory, rainfall, soil fertility, and leaf nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sodium (Na) at 30 sites inside and outside of Serengeti National Park. Using structural equation modeling, we asked whether fire and herbivory influences were largely direct or indirect and how their signs and strengths differed within the context of natural savanna processes. Herbivory was associated with enhanced leaf N and P through changes in plant biomass and community composition. Fire was associated with reduced leaf nutrient concentrations through changes in plant community composition. Additionally, fire had direct positive effects on Na and nonlinear direct effects on P that partially mitigated the indirect negative effects. Key mechanisms by which fire reduced plant nutritive quality were through reductions of Na-rich grasses and increased abundance of Themeda triandra, which had below-average leaf nutrients. ?? 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

American Naturalist

Sampling techniques for burbot in a western non-wadeable river

Burbot, Lota lota (L.), populations are declining throughout much of their native distribution. Although numerous aspects of burbot ecology are well understood, less is known about effective sampling techniques for burbot in lotic systems. Occupancy models were used to estimate the probability of detection ( ) for three gears (6.4- and 19-mm bar mesh hoop nets, night electric fishing), within the context of various habitat characteristics. During the summer, night electric fishing had the highest estimated detection probability for both juvenile ( , 95% C.I.; 0.35, 0.26–0.46) and adult (0.30, 0.20–0.41) burbot. However, small-mesh hoop nets (6.4-mm bar mesh) had similar detection probabilities to night electric fishing for both juvenile (0.26, 0.17–0.36) and adult (0.27, 0.18–0.39) burbot during the summer. In autumn, a similar overlap between detection probabilities was observed for juvenile and adult burbot. Small-mesh hoop nets had the highest estimated probability of detection for both juvenile and adult burbot (0.46, 0.33–0.59), whereas night electric fishing had a detection probability of 0.39 (0.28–0.52) for juvenile and adult burbot. By using detection probabilities to compare gears, the most effective sampling technique can be identified, leading to increased species detections and more effective management of burbot.

Fisheries Management and Ecology

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet

Correlations of turbidity to suspended-sediment concentration in the Toutle River Basin, near Mount St. Helens, Washington, 2010-11

Researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, investigated alternative methods for the traditional sample-based sediment record procedure in determining suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge. One such sediment-surrogate technique was developed using turbidity and discharge to estimate SSC for two gaging stations in the Toutle River Basin near Mount St. Helens, Washington. To provide context for the study, methods for collecting sediment data and monitoring turbidity are discussed. Statistical methods used include the development of ordinary least squares regression models for each gaging station. Issues of time-related autocorrelation also are evaluated. Addition of lagged explanatory variables was used to account for autocorrelation in the turbidity, discharge, and SSC data. Final regression model equations and plots are presented for the two gaging stations. The regression models support near-real-time estimates of SSC and improved suspended-sediment discharge records by incorporating continuous instream turbidity. Future use of such models may potentially lower the costs of sediment monitoring by reducing time it takes to collect and process samples and to derive a sediment-discharge record.

Washington

A Generalized Approach for the Interpretation of Geophysical Well Logs in Ground-Water Studies:Theory and Application

Quantitative analysis of geophysical logs in ground-water studies often involves at least as broad a range of applications and variation in lithology as is typically encountered in petroleum exploration, making such logs difficult to calibrate and complicating inversion problem formulation. At the same time, data inversion and analysis depend on inversion model formulation and refinement, so that log interpretation cannot be deferred to a geophysical log specialist unless active involvement with interpretation can be maintained by such an expert over the lifetime of the project. We propose a generalized log-interpretation procedure designed to guide hydrogeologists in the interpretation of geophysical logs, and in the integration of log data into ground-water models that may be systematically refined and improved in an iterative way. The procedure is designed to maximize the effective use of three primary contributions from geophysical logs: (1) The continuous depth scale of the measurements along the well bore; (2) The in situ measurement of lithologic properties and the correlation with hydraulic properties of the formations over a finite sample volume; and (3) Multiple independent measurements that can potentially be inverted for multiple physical or hydraulic properties of interest. The approach is formulated in the context of geophysical inversion theory, and is designed to be interfaced with surface geophysical soundings and conventional hydraulic testing. The step-by-step procedures given in our generalized interpretation and inversion technique are based on both qualitative analysis designed to assist formulation of the interpretation model, and quantitative analysis used to assign numerical values to model parameters. The approach bases a decision as to whether quantitative inversion is statistically warranted by formulating an over-determined inversion. If no such inversion is consistent with the inversion model, quantitative inversion is judged not possible with the given data set. Additional statistical criteria such as the statistical significance of regressions are used to guide the subsequent calibration of geophysical data in terms of hydraulic variables in those situations where quantitative data inversion is considered appropriate.

Ground Water

Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both the discount rate and the climatic patterns on optimal harvest strategics. In general, decreases in either the discount rate or in the frequency of favorable weather patterns lcd to a more conservative defoliation policy. This did not hold, however, for plants in states of low vigor. Optimal control for shadscale and winterfat tended to stabilize on a policy of heavy defoliation stress, followed by one or more seasons of rest. Big sagebrush required a policy of heavy summer defoliation when sufficient active shoot material is present at the beginning of the growing season. The comparison of fixed and optimal strategies indicated considerable improvement in defoliation yields when optimal strategies are followed. The superior performance was attributable to increased defoliation of plants in states of high vigor. Improvements were found for both discounted and undiscounted yields.

Journal of Environmental Management

Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of ecological networks, or in 2-D space, may be inadequate for studying the influence of structure and connectivity on ecological processes within DENs. We propose a conceptual taxonomy of network analysis methods that account for DEN characteristics to varying degrees and provide a synthesis of the different approaches within the context of stream ecology. Within this context, we summarise the key innovations of a new family of spatial statistical models that describe spatial relationships in DENs. Finally, we discuss how different network analyses may be combined to address more complex and novel research questions. While our main focus is streams, the taxonomy of network analyses is also relevant anywhere spatial patterns in both network and 2-D space can be used to explore the influence of multi-scale processes on biota and their habitat (e.g. plant morphology and pest infestation, or preferential migration along stream or road corridors).

Ecology Letters

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: Creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Sustainability Science

Pallid sturgeon seasonal habitat selection in a large free-flowing river, the lower Mississippi River

Pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes & Richardson, 1905, Bulletin of the Illinois State Laboratory of Natural History, 1905, 7, 37) are an endangered riverine sturgeon native to the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, and declining numbers have been attributed to multiple stressors, including habitat loss and alteration. The lower Mississippi River provides a useful context to assess pallid sturgeon habitat selection because, although altered for flood control and navigation, it provides a free-flowing system with a diversity of habitats and a minimally altered hydrograph. A discrete choice model of data collected year-round from two reaches for 3–5 years revealed changes in habitat selection across water temperatures and river stages representative of seasonal variation in habitat for 116 telemetry-tagged pallid sturgeon. Natural bank, island tip, and secondary channel were positively selected and main channel, although frequently used, was avoided. The degree of selection varied among river stages, water temperatures, and reaches. Habitat selection appears to be strongly influenced by preference for locations with moderate depth (median 11.7 m; lower and upper quartiles 8.1 m and 16.3 m) and moderate current velocity (median 0.9 m/s; lower and upper quartiles 0.7 m/s and 1.2 m/s).

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi