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USGS2005

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression models in the region ranged from 65 to 68 percent. The basins that drain into the northern part of Tampa Bay and the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin are in Region 3, which had prediction errors ranging from 54 to 74 percent. Region 4, at the southern end of the study area, had prediction errors that ranged from 40 to 56 percent. Estimates of flood discharge become more accurate as longer periods of record are used for analyses; results of this study should be used in lieu of results from earlier U.S. Geological Survey studies of flood magnitude and frequency in west-central Florida. A comparison of current results with earlier studies indicates that use of a longer period of record with additional high-water events produces substantially higher flood-discharge estimates for many gaging stations. Another comparison indicates that the use of a computed, generalized skew in a previous study in 1979 tended to overestimate flood discharges.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Nutrients, Select Pesticides, and Suspended Sediment in the Karst Terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin, Kentucky, 2004-06

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Department of Agriculture, on nutrients, select pesticides, and suspended sediment in the karst terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin. Streamflow, nutrient, select pesticide, and suspended-sediment data were collected at seven sampling stations from 2004 through 2006. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate ranged from 0.21 to 4.9 milligrams per liter (mg/L) at the seven stations. The median concentration of nitrite plus nitrate for all stations sampled was 1.6 mg/L. Total phosphorus concentrations were greater than 0.1 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum concentration, in 45 percent of the samples. Concentrations of orthophosphates ranged from less than 0.006 to 0.46 mg/L. Concentrations of nutrients generally were larger during spring and summer months, corresponding to periods of increased fertilizer application on agricultural lands. Concentrations of suspended sediment ranged from 1.0 to 1,490 mg/L at the seven stations. Of the 47 pesticides analyzed, 14 were detected above the adjusted method reporting level of 0.01 micrograms per liter (mug/L). Although these pesticides were detected in water-quality samples, they generally were found at less than part-per-billion concentrations. Atrazine was the only pesticide detected at concentrations greater than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standard of 3 mug/L, and the maximum detected concentration was 24.6 mug/L. Loads and yields of nutrients, selected pesticides, and suspended sediment were estimated at two mainstream stations on Sinking Creek, a headwater station (Sinking Creek at Rosetta) and a station at the basin outlet (Sinking Creek near Lodiburg). Mean daily streamflow data were available for the estimation of loads and yields from a stream gage at the basin outlet station; however, only periodic instantaneous flow measurements were available for the headwaters station; mean daily flows at the headwater station were, therefore, estimated using a mathematical record-extension technique known as the Maintenance of Variance-Extension, type 1 (MOVE.1). The estimation of mean daily streamflows introduced a large amount of uncertainty into the loads and yields estimates at the headwater station. Total estimated loads of select (five most commonly detected) pesticides from the Sinking Creek Basin were about 0.01 to 1.2 percent of the estimated application, indicating pesticides possibly are retained within the watershed. Mean annual loads [(in/lb)/yr] for nutrients and suspended sediment were estimated at the two Sinking Creek mainstem sampling stations. The relation between estimated and measured instantaneous loads of nitrite plus nitrate at the Sinking Creek near Lodiburg station indicate a reasonably tight distribution over the range of loads. The model for loads of nitrite plus nitrate at the Sinking Creek at Rosetta station indicates small loads were overestimated and underestimated. Relations between estimated and measured loads of total phosphorus and orthophosphate at both Sinking Creek mainstem stations showed similar patterns to the loads of nitrite plus nitrate at each respective station. The estimated mean annual load of suspended sediment is about 14 times larger at the Sinking Creek near Lodiburg station than at the Sinking Creek near Rosetta station. Estimated yields of nutrients and suspended sediment increased from the headwater to downstream monitoring stations on Sinking Creek. This finding suggests that sources of nutrients and suspended sediment are not evenly distributed throughout the karst terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin. Yields of select pesticides generally were similar from the headwater to downstream monitoring stations. However, the estimated yield of atrazine was about five times higher at the downstream station on Sinking Creek than at the headwater station on Sinking Creek.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

The U.S. Geological Survey coal quality (COALQUAL) database version 3.0

Since the mid-1970s, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has maintained a coal quality database of national scope named USCHEM, which currently contains data for over 13,000 samples. A subset of the USCHEM database called COALQUAL Version 1.3 was initially published in 1994 and was followed by Version 2.0 in 1997. Version 3.0 of the COALQUAL database represents a major editing effort to resolve some of the DOS software limitations used by earlier versions of the database. Because of database size limits during the development of COALQUAL Version 1.3, many analyses of individual bench samples were merged into whole coal bed averages. The methodology for making these composite intervals was not consistent. Size limits also restricted the amount of georeferencing information and forced removal of qualifier notations such as "less than detection limit" (<) information, which can cause problems when using the data. A review of the original data sheets revealed that COALQUAL Version 2.0 was missing information that was needed for a complete understanding of a coal section. Another important database issue to resolve was the USGS "remnant moisture" problem. Prior to 1998, tests for remnant moisture (as-determined moisture in the sample at the time of analysis) were not performed on any USGS major, minor, or trace element coal analyses. Without the remnant moisture, it is impossible to convert the analyses to a usable basis (as-received, dry, etc.). Based on remnant moisture analyses of hundreds of samples of different ranks (and known residual moisture) reported after 1998, it was possible to develop a method to provide reasonable estimates of remnant moisture for older data to make it more useful in COALQUAL Version 3.0. In addition, COALQUAL Version 3.0 is improved by (1) adding qualifiers, including statistical programming to deal with the qualifiers; (2) clarifying the sample compositing problems; and (3) adding associated samples. Version 3.0 of COALQUAL also represents the first attempt to incorporate data verification by mathematically crosschecking certain analytical parameters. Finally, a new database system was designed and implemented to replace the outdated DOS program used in earlier versions of the database.

Data Series↗

USGS2016

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Missouri River↗

USGS2013

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice , where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2016

Geometric quality assessment of lidar data based on swath overlap

This paper provides guidelines on quantifying the relative horizontal and vertical errors observed between conjugate features in the overlapping regions of lidar data. The quantification of these errors is important because their presence quantifies the geometric quality of the data. A data set can be said to have good geometric quality if measurements of identical features, regardless of their position or orientation, yield identical results. Good geometric quality indicates that the data are produced using sensor models that are working as they are mathematically designed, and data acquisition processes are not introducing any unforeseen distortion in the data. High geometric quality also leads to high geolocation accuracy of the data when the data acquisition process includes coupling the sensor with geopositioning systems. Current specifications (e.g. Heidemann 2014) do not provide adequate means to quantitatively measure these errors, even though they are required to be reported. Current accuracy measurement and reporting practices followed in the industry and as recommended by data specification documents also potentially underestimate the inter-swath errors, including the presence of systematic errors in lidar data. Hence they pose a risk to the user in terms of data acceptance (i.e. a higher potential for Type II error indicating risk of accepting potentially unsuitable data). For example, if the overlap area is too small or if the sampled locations are close to the center of overlap, or if the errors are sampled in flat regions when there are residual pitch errors in the data, the resultant Root Mean Square Differences (RMSD) can still be small. To avoid this, the following are suggested to be used as criteria for defining the inter-swath quality of data: a) Median Discrepancy Angle b) Mean and RMSD of Horizontal Errors using DQM measured on sloping surfaces c) RMSD for sampled locations from flat areas (defined as areas with less than 5 degrees of slope) It is suggested that 4000-5000 points are uniformly sampled in the overlapping regions of the point cloud, and depending on the surface roughness, to measure the discrepancy between swaths. Care must be taken to sample only areas of single return points only. Point-to-Plane distance based data quality measures are determined for each sample point. These measurements are used to determine the above mentioned parameters. This paper details the measurements and analysis of measurements required to determine these metrics, i.e. Discrepancy Angle, Mean and RMSD of errors in flat regions and horizontal errors obtained using measurements extracted from sloping regions (slope greater than 10 degrees). The research is a result of an ad-hoc joint working group of the US Geological Survey and the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) Airborne Lidar Committee.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to unmixing detrital geochronologic data

Sedimentary deposits constitute the primary record of changing environmental conditions that have acted on Earth’s surface over geologic time. Clastic material is eroded from source locations (parents) in sediment routing systems and deposited at sink locations (children). Both parents and children have characteristics that vary across many different dimensions, including grain size, chemical composition, and the geochronologic age of constituent detrital minerals. During transport, sediment from different parents is mixed together to form a child, which in turn may serve as the parent for other sediment farther down-system or later in time when buried sediment is exhumed. The distribution of detrital mineral ages observed in parent and child sediments allows for investigation of the proportion of each parent in the child sediment, which reflects the properties of the sediment routing system. To model the proportion of dates in a child sample that comes from each of the parent distributions, we use a Bayesian mixture of Dirichlet processes. This model enables us to estimate the mixing proportions with associated uncertainty while making minimal assumptions. We also present an extension to the model whereby we reconstruct unobserved parent distributions from multiple observed child distributions using mixtures of Dirichlet processes. The model accounts for uncertainty in both the number of mineral formation events that constitute each parent distribution and the mixing proportions of each parent distribution that constitutes a child distribution. To demonstrate the model, we perform analyses using simulated data where the true age distribution is known as well as using a real-world case study from the coast of central California, USA.

Mathematical Geosciences↗

USGS2017

Optimal hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter constrained by chemical mass balance, with application to selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds

Quantitative estimates of base flow are necessary to address questions concerning the vulnerability and response of the Nation’s water supply to natural and human-induced change in environmental conditions. An objective of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Project is to determine how hydrologic systems are affected by watershed characteristics, including land use, land cover, water use, climate, and natural characteristics (geology, soil type, and topography). An important component of any hydrologic system is base flow, generally described as the part of streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to stream channels by delayed (usually subsurface) pathways, and more specifically as the volumetric discharge of water, estimated at a measurement site or gage at the watershed scale, which represents groundwater that discharges directly or indirectly to stream reaches and is then routed to the measurement point. Hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter was applied to 225 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The recursive digital filter was chosen for the following reasons: it is based in part on the assumption that groundwater acts as a linear reservoir, and so has a physical basis; it has only two adjustable parameters (alpha, obtained directly from recession analysis, and beta, the maximum value of the base-flow index that can be modeled by the filter), which can be determined objectively and with the same physical basis of groundwater reservoir linearity, or that can be optimized by applying a chemical-mass-balance constraint. Base-flow estimates from the recursive digital filter were compared with those from five other hydrograph-separation methods with respect to two metrics: the long-term average fraction of streamflow that is base flow, or base-flow index, and the fraction of days where streamflow is entirely base flow. There was generally good correlation between the methods, with some biased slightly high and some biased slightly low compared to the recursive digital filter. There were notable differences between the days at base flow estimated by the different methods, with the recursive digital filter having a smaller range of values. This was attributed to how the different methods determine cessation of quickflow (the part of streamflow which is not base flow). For 109 Chesapeake Bay watershed sites with available specific conductance data, the parameters of the filter were optimized using a chemical-mass-balance constraint and two different models for the time-dependence of base-flow specific conductance. Sixty-seven models were deemed acceptable and the results compared well with non-optimized results. There are a number of limitations to the optimal hydrograph-separation approach resulting from the assumptions implicit in the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the approach taken to impose chemical mass balance (including tracer choice). These limitations may be evidenced by poor model results; conversely, poor model fit may provide an indication that two-component separation does not adequately describe the hydrologic system’s runoff response. The results of this study may be used to address a number of questions regarding the role of groundwater in understanding past changes in stream-water quality and forecasting possible future changes, such as the timing and magnitude of land-use and management practice effects on stream and groundwater quality. Ongoing and future modeling efforts may benefit from the estimates of base flow as calibration targets or as a means to filter chemical data to model base-flow loads and trends. Ultimately, base-flow estimation might provide the basis for future work aimed at improving the ability to quantify groundwater discharge, not only at the scale of a gaged watershed, but at the scale of individual reaches as well.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Processes affecting the trihalomethane concentrations associated with the third injection, storage, and recovery rest at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, March 1998 through April 1999

The formation and fate of trihalomethanes (THM) during the third injection, storage, and recovery test at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, were investigated as part of a program to assess the long-term feasibility of using injection, storage, and recovery as a water-supply method and as a way to reduce water-level declines and land-subsidence in the Antelope Valley. The program was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works and the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency. The water used for injection, storage, and recovery must be disinfected before injection and thus contains THMs and other disinfection by-products. THMs (chloroform, CHCl3, bromodichloromethane, CHCl2Br, dibromochloromethane, CHClBr2, and bromoform, CHBr3) are formed by reaction between natural dissolved organic carbon that is present in water and chlorine that is added during the disinfection step of the drinking water treatment process. THMs are carcinogenic compounds, and their concentrations in drinking water are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. During previous cycles of the Lancaster program, extracted water still contained measurable concentrations of THMs long after continuous pumping had extracted a greater volume of water than had been injected. This raised concerns about the potential long-term effect of injection, storage, and recovery cycles on ground-water quality in Antelope Valley aquifers. The primary objectives of this investigation were to determine (1) what controlled continued THM formation in the aquifer after injection, (2) what caused of the persistence of THMs in the extracted water, even after long periods of pumping, (3) what controlled the decrease of THM concentrations during the extraction period, and (4) the potential for natural attenuation of THMs in the aquifer. Laboratory experiments on biodegradation of THMs in microcosms of aquifer materials indicate that aquifer bacteria did not degrade CHCl3 or CHBr3 under aerobic conditions, but did degrade CHBr3 under anaerobic conditions. However, the aquifer is naturally aerobic and CHCl3 is the dominant THM species; therefore, biodegradation is not considered an important attenuation mechanism for THMs in this aquifer. The alluvial-fan sediments comprising the aquifer have very low contents of organic matter; therefore, sorption is not considered to be an important attenuation mechanism for THMs in this aquifer. Laboratory experiments on formation of THMs in the injection water indicate that continued THM formation in the injection water after injection into the aquifer was limited by the amount of residual chlorine in the injection water at the time of injection. After accounting for THMs formed by reaction of this residual chlorine, THMs behaved as conservative constituents in the aquifer, and the only process affecting the concentration of THMs was mixing of the injection water and the ground water. The mixing process was quantified using mass balances of injected constituents, the sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer that was added to the injected water, and a simple descriptive mathematical mixing model. Mass balance calculations show that only 67 percent of the injected THMs and chloride were recovered by the time that a volume of water equivalent to 132 percent of the injection water volume was extracted. Pumping 250 percent of the injection water volume only increased recovery of injected THMs to 80 percent. THM and SF6 concentrations in the extracted water decreased concomitantly during the extraction period, and THM concentrations predicted from SF6 concentrations closely matched the measured THM concentrations. Because SF6 is a conservative tracer that was initially only present in the injection water, parallel decreases in SF6 and THM concentrations in the extracted water must be due to dilution of injection water with ground water. The simple descriptive mixing mode

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1994

Selected contributions to ground-water hydrology by C.V. Theis, and a review of his life and work

This publication highlights two previously unpublished papers by C.V. Theis; each is augmented with a discussion that explains why he wrote the paper, attempts to discern why he did not publish the paper, and amplifies the information with reference material not included by Theis. 'A Primer on Anisotropy' was written in the early 1970's to provide practicing hydrogeologists of the day with a method of analyzing ground-water problems involving anisotropic hydraulic-conductivity distribution without using tensor mathematics. The equations were developed for horizontal flow through dipping beds with differing conductivities parallel and perpendicular to the bedding and for flow through dipping beds having three different hydraulic conductivities, one perpendicular to the bedding and two others parallel to the bedding, at an angle to the strike of the beds. Although most colleagues who reviewed the primer in the early 1970's encouraged its publication enthusiastically, at least one suggested the addition of some examples in which the method would be demonstrated. Handwritten notes from Theis' files indicate that he may have worked on some examples and possibly other additions to the paper. The comments by Charles A. Appel include some examples of the primer's use and augment the presentation with references to relevant published papers, both those available to Theis but not cited by him, and subsequent publications. 'Aquifers, Ground-Water Bodies, and Hydrophers' was written in the early 1980's as an attempt to clarify the semantic and conceptual confusion in the use of the term aquifer, applied by some investigators to the saturated part of a permeable formation and by others to the entire permeable formation. The physical distinction between the aquifer and the ground-water body is emphasized, and the term hydropher is proposed to describe the saturated part of a permeable formation. Theis' interest in and familiarity with the French literature on ground water was the basis for a discussion of the French usage, which eschews the term aquifer. The analysis and critique of Theis' palzler explains the 1835 paper from which aquifer was reportedly derived, and provides further justification for the term hydropher. Theis' more important contributions to ground-water hydrology were outgrowths of his solutions to small local water problems based on field investigations. The biographical sketch, drawing extensively from a partial autobiography that Theis had dictated, reveals both the reasons for and the intellectual processes that led to his development of the nonequilibrium concept of ground-water hydraulics. The sketch also describes the background of the man, reviews his career, and portrays the admiration and respect he elicited from his colleagues and associates. The magnitude of Theis' contribution to the science of ground-water hydrology, to the appraisal of the water resources of New Mexico, and to the early research on ground disposal of radioactive wastes is evident from the bibliography of his writings, which includes 168 reports, many of them unpublished. The evolution of his thinking about the role of geologic inhomogeneities in mass transport, conceptualized but not quantified, was the major contribution of the latter part of his career.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2023

Moderate flood level scenarios—Synthetic storm-driven flood-inundation maps for coastal communities in 10 New Jersey counties

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM), created digital flood-inundation maps for approximately 1,430 square miles of the New Jersey coast and tidewaters through 10 coastal counties stretching from Cumberland County through Bergen County, New Jersey. The maps depict extent and depth estimates of coastal flooding corresponding to selected tidal elevations recorded by 25 real-time USGS tide gages located within the study area. The flood-inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Flood Decision Support Toolbox (FDST). Previously published modeled data were utilized from the coupled ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. Simulated tropical storm events were selected based on parameters including landfall location or closest approach location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, and radii of winds. Two storm events were selected per tide gage providing two “scenarios” and accompanying inundation-map libraries for each gage. Flood-inundation maps reflect between 9 to 30 stages (elevations) at each tide gage that correspond to areal extents and depths for ADCIRC-SWAN storm time steps extracted from modeled hydrographs at the gage locations. Water-surface elevations from ADCIRC-SWAN node points extending through each tide gage station extent were used to interpolate a water surface. Combining these surfaces with a geographic information system (GIS) topobathymetric digital elevation model (TBDEM) delineated the area flooded by coastal waters at each tide gage elevation. The availability of these maps to visualize potential inundation for selected water levels along with real-time water level data available online from USGS tide gages, coastal impact statements, and forecasted tide elevations from the National Weather Service (NWS) will provide emergency management personnel and residents with a link between numeric and text warning information and images of estimated inundation extents in their community. User selected display of inundation allows early response activities to NWS forecasted water level elevations or mitigation planning by selecting targeted water levels and planning critical pre-flood activities such as building elevations, early traffic pattern changes because of neighborhood building inundation levels, improved understanding about when major road access is affected, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts. A subsequent analysis of several community metrics including total structures, structure density, percent of buildings inundated, and roads and bridges affected by flooding was used to evaluate moderate flooding impacts among the mapped station extents. Initial comparisons are presented to show the variability of these characteristics within each mapped station extent then extended to evaluate impacts from moderate flooding on these same areas. The analysis used simulated inundation layers at the moderate flood stage to investigate the magnitude of inundation on building structures and major roads among the mapped station extents. Experimental equations were developed to begin testing if a mathematical equation could help identify communities that were disproportionately impacted at moderate flood stage. The community analysis of impacts to moderate flooding based on these inundation scenario maps should provide community leaders and local and state planning officials with tools to better visualize and understand how flooding begins to disrupt and damage building structures and major roads as a surrogate for direct increased risk to human life and property.

New Jersey↗

USGS2016

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida↗

USGS1981

Tonalites in crustal evolution

Tonalites, including trondhjemite as a variety, played three roles through geological time in the generation of Earth’s crust. Before about 2.9 Ga ago they were produced largely by simple partial melting of metabasalt to give the dominant part of Archaean grey gneiss terranes. These terranes are notably bimodal; andesitic rocks are rare. Tonalites played a crucial role in the generation of this protocontinental and oldest crust 3.7- 2.9 Ga ago in that they were the only low-density, high-SiO 2 rocks produced directly from basaltic crust. In the enormous event giving the greenstone-granite terranes, mostly 2.8-2.6 Ga ago, tonalites formed in lesser but still important proportions by partial melting of metabasalt in the lower regions of down-buckled greenstone belts and by remobilization of older grey gneisses. Tectonism in the Archaean (3.9- 2.5 Ga ago) perhaps was controlled by small-cell convection (McKenzie & Weiss 1975). Little or no ophiolite or eclogite formed, and only minor andesite. Plate tectonics of modern type (involving large, rigid plates) commenced in the early Proterozoic. Uniformitarianism thus goes back one-half of the age of the earth. Tonalites compose about 5-10 % of crust generated in Proterozoic and Phanerozoic time at convergent oceanic-continental margins. They occur here as minor to prominent members of the compositionally continuous continental-margin batholiths. A simple model of generation of these batholiths is offered: mantle-derived mafic magma pools in the lower crust above a subduction zone reacts with and incorporates wall-rock components (Bowen 1922), and breaches its roof rocks as an initial diapir. This mantle magma also develops a gradient of partial melting in its wall rocks. This wall-rock melt accretes in the collapsed chamber and moves up the conduit broached by the initial diapir, the higher, less siliceous fractions of melting first, the lower, more siliceous (and further removed) fractions of melting last. The process gives in the optimum case a mafic-to-siliceous sequence of diorite or quartz diorite through tonalite or quartz monzodiorite to granodiorite and granite. The model implies that great masses of cumulate phases and refractory wall rock form the roots of continentalmargin batholiths, and that migmatites overlie that residuum and underlie the batholiths.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2013

Time-lapse analysis of methane quantity in Mary Lee group of coal seams using filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulation

Coal seam degasification and its success are important for controlling methane, and thus for the health and safety of coal miners. During the course of degasification, properties of coal seams change. Thus, the changes in coal reservoir conditions and in-place gas content as well as methane emission potential into mines should be evaluated by examining time-dependent changes and the presence of major heterogeneities and geological discontinuities in the field. In this work, time-lapsed reservoir and fluid storage properties of the New Castle coal seam, Mary Lee/Blue Creek seam, and Jagger seam of Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, were determined from gas and water production history matching and production forecasting of vertical degasification wellbores. These properties were combined with isotherm and other important data to compute gas-in-place (GIP) and its change with time at borehole locations. Time-lapsed training images (TIs) of GIP and GIP difference corresponding to each coal and date were generated by using these point-wise data and Voronoi decomposition on the TI grid, which included faults as discontinuities for expansion of Voronoi regions. Filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulations, which were preferred in this study due to anisotropies and discontinuities in the area, were used to predict time-lapsed GIP distributions within the study area. Performed simulations were used for mapping spatial time-lapsed methane quantities as well as their uncertainties within the study area. The systematic approach presented in this paper is the first time in literature that history matching, TIs of GIPs and filter simulations are used for degasification performance evaluation and for assessing GIP for mining safety. Results from this study showed that using production history matching of coalbed methane wells to determine time-lapsed reservoir data could be used to compute spatial GIP and representative GIP TIs generated through Voronoi decomposition. Furthermore, performing filter simulations using point-wise data and TIs could be used to predict methane quantity in coal seams subjected to degasification. During the course of the study, it was shown that the material balance of gas produced by wellbores and the GIP reductions in coal seams predicted using filter simulations compared very well, showing the success of filter simulations for continuous variables in this case study. Quantitative results from filter simulations of GIP within the studied area briefly showed that GIP was reduced from an initial ∼73 Bcf (median) to ∼46 Bcf (2011), representing a 37 % decrease and varying spatially through degasification. It is forecasted that there will be an additional ∼2 Bcf reduction in methane quantity between 2011 and 2015. This study and presented results showed that the applied methodology and utilized techniques can be used to map GIP and its change within coal seams after degasification, which can further be used for ventilation design for methane control in coal mines.

Alabama↗

USGS1977

Mechanical and hydraulic properties of rocks related to induced seismicity

Witherspoon, P.A. and Gale, J.E., 1977. Mechanical and hydraulic properties of rocks related to induced seismicity. Eng. Geol., 11(1): 23-55. The mechanical and hydraulic properties of fractured rocks are considered with regard to the role they play in induced seismicity. In many cases, the mechanical properties of fractures determine the stability of a rock mass. The problems of sampling and testing these rock discontinuities and interpreting their non-linear behavior are reviewed. Stick slip has been proposed as the failure mechanism in earthquake events. Because of the complex interactions that are inherent in the mechanical behavior of fractured rocks, there seems to be no simple way to combine the deformation characteristics of several sets of fractures when there are significant perturbations of existing conditions. Thus, the more important fractures must be treated as individual components in the rock mass. In considering the hydraulic properties, it has been customary to treat a fracture as a parallel-plate conduit and a number of mathematical models of fracture systems have adopted this approach. Non-steady flow in fractured systems has usually been based on a two-porosity model, which assumes the primary (intergranular) porosity contributes only to storage and the secondary (fracture) porosity contributes only to the overall conductivity. Using such a model, it has been found that the time required to achieve quasi-steady state flow in a fractured reservoir is one or two orders of magnitude greater than it is in a homogeneous system. In essentially all of this work, the assumption has generally been made that the fractures are rigid. However, it is clear from a review of the mechanical and hydraulic properties that not only are fractures easily deformed but they constitute the main flow paths in many rock masses. This means that one must consider the interaction of mechanical and hydraulic effects. A considerable amount of laboratory and field data is now available that clearly demonstrates this stress-flow behavior. Two approaches have been used in attempting to numerically model such behavior: (1) continuum models, and (2) discrete models. The continuum approach only needs information as to average values of fracture spacing and material properties. But because of the inherent complexity of fractured rock masses and the corresponding decrease in symmetry, it is difficult to develop an equivalent continuum that will simulate the behavior of the entire system. The discrete approach, on the other hand, requires details of the fracture geometry and material properties of both fractures and rock matrix. The difficulty in obtaining such information has been considered a serious limitation of discrete models, but improved borehole techniques can enable one to obtain the necessary data, at least in shallow systems. The possibility of extending these methods to deeper fracture systems needs more investigation. Such data must be considered when deciding whether to use a continuum or discrete model to represent the interaction of rock and fluid forces in a fractured rock system, especially with regard to the problem of induced seismicity. When one is attempting to alter the pressure distribution in a fault zone by injection or withdrawal of fluids, the extent to which this can be achieved will be controlled in large measure by the behavior of the fractures that communicate with the borehole. Since this is essentially a point phenomenon, i.e., the changes will propagate from a relatively small region around the borehole, the use of a discrete model would appear to be preferable.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2013

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota↗

USGS1970

Eastern margin of the Red Sea and the coastal structures in Saudi Arabia

R esults of many investigations since 1950 show that the eastern margin of the Red Sea and associated coastal structures in Saudi Arabia have a long geologic history, starting with the deposition of Precambrian eugeosynclinal sedimentary and volcanic rocks before 1000 Ma ago and extending to recent geologic time. The northeastern flank of the Red Sea rift valley is in a shield area affected by possibly four plutonic events at 1000, 720 to 735 (?), 660 to 670, and about 570 Ma. Cratonization of the shield occurred during all or part of the span 520 to 590 Ma. Nubian-type sandstone of Cambrian and Ordovician age laps up on the shield from Jordan southeastward around the rim of the Great Nafud basin, and along the eastern edge of the shield southeastward to 45 degrees E longitude where it is overlapped by Permian limestone. The sandstone reappears to the south and extends southward and westward to the Asir Mountains at the Yemen border. Isolated sandstone outliers are present in the central shield, proving that lower Paleozoic sandstone covered most, if not all, of the basement as now exposed. The Mesozoic era was almost entirely a time of uplift and non-deposition except a middle to late Jurassic fringe marine invasion in the south and a possible narrow invasion from the Gulf of Suez at the end of the era. Marine and non-marine sedimentary deposits of middle and late Tertiary age are found along the Red Sea coast, and Oligocene basaltic flows are present at both low and high altitudes in the coastal ranges. Evidence for important volcanism during Oligocene and earliest Miocene time is widespread, and within the eastern rift fault zone early Miocene hypabyssal intrusives cut the shear zones. Major rifting occurred just before or during early Miocene when the flanks of the rift valley were ramped upward. Shortly after this volcanism a thickness on the order of 3500 m of middle Miocene marl and evaporite beds filled the Red Sea trough. Evidence also exists for widespread subaerial erosion in the Pliocene. Younger lava flows are Pliocene in age but the youngest, near Al Medinah, came as late as A.D. 1250. Lake-bed deposits are very probably in large part Pliocene throughout the shield. The Red Sea coastal plain in Saudi Arabia rises gently eastward from a 3 m littoral surface, generally underlain by dead reef from the Yemen border northward to Al Wajd, a distance of 1400 km. At Jizan, in the south, a salt dome has pushed the 3 m surface up to an elevation of about 50 m. From Al Wajd northward, Pleistocene terraces have been faulted, culminating in several surfaces as high as 520 m above the Red Sea at Tiran Island. Ramping of major fault-bounded blocks along the eastern side of the Red Sea trough-the Midian block in the north, a poorly defined central block, and the Asir block in the south-is connected with renewed movement on regional Precambrian faults. Drainage patterns of wadis in these blocks are characteristically affected by the ramping, and stream capture is common in the Midian and Asir blocks.

Red Sea↗