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The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

National water summary 1986: Hydrologic events and ground-water quality

Ground water is one of the most important natural resources of the United States and degradation of its quality could have a major effect on the welfare of the Nation. Currently (1985), ground water is the source of drinking water for 53 percent of the Nation's population and for more than 97 percent of its rural population. It is the source of about 40 percent of the Nation's public water supply, 33 percent of water for irrigation, and 17 percent of freshwater for selfsupplied industries. Ground water also is the source of about 40 percent of the average annual streamflow in the United States, although during long periods of little or no precipitation, ground-water discharges provide nearly all of the base streamflow. This hydraulic connection between aquifers and streams implies that if a persistent pollutant gets into an aquifer, it eventually could discharge into a stream. Information presented in the 1986 National Water Summary clearly shows that the United States has very large amounts of potable ground water available for use. Although naturally occurring constituents, such as nitrate, and human-induced substances, such as synthetic organic chemicals, frequently are detected in ground water, their concentrations usually do not exceed existing Federal or State standards or guidelines for maximum concentrations in drinking water. Troublesome contamination of ground water falls into two basic categories related to the source or sources of the contamination. Locally, high concentrations of a variety of toxic metals, organic chemicals, and petroleum products have been detected in ground water associated with point sources such as wastedisposal sites, storage-tank leaks, and hazardous chemical spills. These types of local problems commonly occur in densely populated urban areas and industrialized areas. Larger, multicounty areas also have been identified where contamination frequently is found in shallow wells. These areas generally are associated with broad-scale, or nonpoint, sources of contamination such as agricultural activities or highdensity domestic waste disposal (septic systems) in urban centers. At present, only a very small percentage of the total volume of potable ground water in the United States is contaminated from both point and nonpoint sources; however, available data, especially data about the occurrence of synthetic organic and toxic substances, generally are inadequate to determine the full extent of ground-water contamination in the Nation's aquifers or to define trends in groundwater quality. Most information about the occurrence of these substances has come from the study of individual sites or areas where contamination had already been detected or suspected. Management and protection of ground water present a major challenge to the Nation. Current and projected costs of detection and cleanup of existing ground-water contamination are staggering and, even so, complete removal of pollutants from ground water in the vicinity of some waste sites might not be technically feasible. At all levels of government, the task of protecting the resource for its most beneficial uses is difficult and controversial. Despite increasing awareness that some of the Nation's ground water is contaminated with a variety of toxic metals, synthetic organic chemicals, radionuclides, pesticides, and other contaminants that might present a long-term risk to human health, public policy towards ground-water protection is still in the formative stages. Despite increasing efforts devoted to ground-water protection by State and Federal regulatory and resource-management agencies, the extent of ground-water contamination is likely to appear to increase over the next few years because more agencies will be searching for evidence of contamination, and they will be using increasingly sensitive analytical procedures. Increased technology and expanded monitoring activities probably will detect the effects of past contamination and land uses on water quality. The significant time lag between a waterquality change in one part of an aquifer system and the effects of that change at a downgradient site, such as a well, results from the generally slow movement of ground water. This lag between cause and observed effect needs to be considered in evaluating the effectiveness of current and future ground-water policies and remedial measures. Conclusive answers to questions about the location, extent, and severity of ground-water contamination, and about trends in ground-water quality, must await further collection and analysis of data from the Nation's aquifers. Generalizations, however, can be made, and the 1986 National Water Summary, which describes the natural quality of ground-water resources in each State and the major contamination problems that have been identified as of 1986, provides a national perspective of the ground-water-quality situation. The 1986 National Water Summary follows the format of previous volumes. It contains three parts, and the contents of each of these parts are highlighted below.

Water Supply Paper

Comprehensive framework for ecological assessment of the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) established and funded the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative (MBHI), with the goal of improving and increasing wetland habitats on private lands to benefit wintering and migrating waterbirds displaced from oil-impacted coastal wetlands. The NRCS and conservation partners provided financial and technical assistance to landowners and managers of sites enrolled in various conservation easement programs, and incorporated approximately 190,000 ha of wetlands and agricultural lands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) and Gulf Coast regions in the MBHI. In fall 2010, the NRCS worked with scientists and graduate students from three universities and various conservation agencies to design and implement landscape-scale evaluations of (1) the use of MBHI-managed wetlands and comparable non-MBHI wetlands by Charadriiformes (shorebirds), Anseriformes (waterfowl), and other waterbirds; and (2) the relative effectiveness of different MBHI practices for providing habitat and food resources for migrating, resident, and wintering waterbirds. In this paper, we describe the scientific framework designed to evaluate the MBHI in improving waterbird habitats on private lands in the MAV, the Gulf Coast Prairies in Louisiana and Texas, and Gulf coastal wetlands of Mississippi and Alabama. The results of our evaluation will enhance our understanding of the influence of MBHI, other Farm Bill Conservation Initiative managed lands (e.g., Wetland Reserve Program), and selected agricultural working lands (e.g., Oryza sativa L. [Rice] fields in southern Louisiana and Texas) on wintering and migrating waterbirds. A proactive approach that uses science to evaluate governmental conservation programs is relevant and can inform development of meaningful public policy that likely will be needed for effective delivery of future conservation programs and to justify financial incentives paid to landowners to apply best management practices.

Southeastern Naturalist

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Report

Evaluating land cover influences on model uncertainties—A case study of cropland carbon dynamics in the Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign region

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks and their uncertainties across agriculture-dominated areas remains challenging for understanding regional carbon cycles. Characteristics of local land cover inputs could impact the regional carbon estimates but the effect has not been fully evaluated in the past. Within the North American Carbon Program Mid-Continent Intensive (MCI) Campaign, three models were developed to estimate carbon fluxes on croplands: an inventory-based model, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, and the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) model. They all provided estimates of three major carbon fluxes on cropland: net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and soil organic carbon (SOC) change. Using data mining and spatial statistics, we studied the spatial distribution of the carbon fluxes uncertainties and the relationships between the uncertainties and the land cover characteristics. Results indicated that uncertainties for all three carbon fluxes were not randomly distributed, but instead formed multiple clusters within the MCI region. We investigated the impacts of three land cover characteristics on the fluxes uncertainties: cropland percentage, cropland richness and cropland diversity. The results indicated that cropland percentage significantly influenced the uncertainties of NPP and NEP, but not on the uncertainties of SOC change. Greater uncertainties of NPP and NEP were found in counties with small cropland percentage than the counties with large cropland percentage. Cropland species richness and diversity also showed negative correlations with the model uncertainties. Our study demonstrated that the land cover characteristics contributed to the uncertainties of regional carbon fluxes estimates. The approaches we used in this study can be applied to other ecosystem models to identify the areas with high uncertainties and where models can be improved to reduce overall uncertainties for regional carbon flux estimates.

Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign region

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise— A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation. The SAP also outlines the policy context in the mid-Atlantic region and describes the implications of sea-level rise impacts for other regions of the United States. Finally, this SAP discusses ways natural and social science research can improve understanding and prediction of potential impacts to aid planning and decision making. Projections of sea-level rise for the twenty-first century vary widely, ranging from several centimeters to more than a meter. Rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Existing elevation data for the mid-Atlantic United States do not provide the degree of confidence needed for local decision making. Systematic nationwide collection of high-resolution elevation data would improve the ability to conduct detailed assessments in support of planning. The coastal zone is dynamic and the response of coastal areas to sea-level rise is more complex than simple inundation. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. All these changes will affect coastal habitats and species. Increasing population and development in coastal areas also affects the ability of natural ecosystems to adjust to sea-level rise. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to coastal hazards by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses. Shoreline armoring can eliminate the land along the shore to which the public has access; beach nourishment projects often increase access to the shore. Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, longlived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the implicit assumption that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises. The prospect of accelerated sea-level rise and increased vulnerability in coastal regions underscores the immediate need for improving our scientific understanding of and ability to predict the effects of sea-level rise on natural systems and society. These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise.

Report

Colorado Canyons National Conservation Area 2003 visitor use survey: Completion report

This report represents the analysis of research conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The purpose is to provide socio-economic and recreational use information that can be used in the development of a Resource Management Plan (RMP) for the Colorado Canyons National Conservation Area (CCNCA). The results reported here deal primarily with recreation-based activities in four areas: Kokopelli Loops, Rabbit Valley, Loma Boat Launch, and Devil’s Canyon. In the fall of 2002, researchers from the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Program (PASA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) in the USGS met with the staff of the CCNCA to discuss the issues related to social, economic, and human dimensions of natural resource management related to the RMP. As a result, a research study was designed to investigate the recreational experiences of visitors and their attitudes toward the management of the conservation area. In the spring of 2003, PASA conducted an intercept survey of recreational users at the CCNCA and a mail survey of local residents who were actively involved in decision-making regarding recreation on public lands in Mesa County, Colorado. Two hundred and three (203) mail surveys (66%) were returned and all of them were completed in full and considered usable. The intercept survey had a response rate with a range from 56%–64% among the four sites that were surveyed. We developed a questionnaire (OMB Control Number: 1040-0001) to answer the following questions: What are the important differences in citizens’ attitudes regarding recreation at the CCNCA? What are the factors that explain the differences in attitudes and preferences regarding recreation management of the NCA? What are citizens’ attitudes and preferences regarding their attitudes about paying a fee to visit the CCNCA? In general, respondents at all sites reported having an excellent or good recreation experience and almost all indicated that they intended to return. The results from the intercept survey indicated that across four sites 1(Kokopelli Loops, Devil’s Canyon, Loma Boat Launch, and Rabbit Valley) respondents reported support for undeveloped use and recreation restrictions to limit resource impacts. Respondents indicated that managing sites for undeveloped use was a good idea. The respondents from the mail survey generally had a positive orientation toward current management practices of the CCNCA. According to our surveys, non-motorized trail related activities were among the three most popular activities people engaged in both close to home and while away. These trail-based recreational activities included walking, running, mountain bike riding, and horseback riding. Research has shown that people participate in these activities for many reasons including learning about nature, exercising, to learning about paleontology, escaping for awhile, and socializing with family and friends (Taylor, 2000). National data indicate that larger percentages of the general American population engage in trail activities than in many other traditional outdoor activities (Cordell, 1999). Over 65% of people in the U.S. engage in walking as a recreational activity (Figure 1). We found that people wanted to experience the outdoors and the CCNCA provided a good place to do it. Trail activities are often those that people participate in on a regular basis as a way to exercise. This can make trail related activities more attractive from a management standpoint because people who participate in an activity may be more likely to be repeat visitors.

Open-File Report

Making decisions in complex landscapes: Headwater stream management across multiple federal agencies

Headwater stream ecosystems are vulnerable to numerous threats associated with climate and land use change. In the northeastern US, many headwater stream species (e.g., brook trout and stream salamanders) are of special conservation concern and may be vulnerable to climate change influences, such as changes in stream temperature and streamflow. Federal land management agencies (e.g., US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and Department of Defense) are required to adopt policies that respond to climate change and may have longer-term institutional support to enforce such policies compared to state, local, non-governmental, or private land managers. However, federal agencies largely make management decisions in regards to headwater stream ecosystems independently. This fragmentation of management resources and responsibilities across the landscape may significantly impede the efficiency and effectiveness of conservation actions, and higher degrees of collaboration may be required to achieve conservation goals. This project seeks to provide an example of cooperative landscape decision-making to address the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems. We identified shared and contrasting objectives of each federal agency and potential collaboration opportunities that may increase efficient and effective management of headwater stream ecosystems in two northeastern US watersheds. These workshops provided useful insights into the adaptive capacity of federal institutions to address threats to headwater stream ecosystems. Our ultimate goal is to provide a decision-making framework and analysis that addresses large-scale conservation threats across multiple stakeholders, as a demonstration of cooperative landscape conservation for aquatic ecosystems. Additionally, we aim to provide new scientific knowledge and a regional perspective to resource managers to help inform local management decisions.

Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, West Virginia

Investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey of soil and moisture conservation on public domain lands, 1941-1964

The passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934 marked the end of an era in the land policies in the United States in that disposal of the public lands by homesteading was terminated except under rigidly prescribed procedures, and the remaining public lands covering about 175 million acres in the western conterminous states were brought under regulatory authority for grazing use. In 1934 the lands were mostly in a severe state of deterioration as a result of overgrazing and drought. In addition to reducing numbers of livestock using the lands, successive programs of conservation practices were established of which the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Department of the Interior is of particular interest here. The services of the Geological Survey, in an investigational and advisory capacity were enlisted in this program. The work of the Geological Survey has consisted of the collection of hydrologic data, investigations of range-water supplies to facilitate management and provide information for design of structures and land-treatment measures. Appraisal of the effects of treatment practices has also been an important activity. Conservation on the public domain involves mainly growing vegetation for forage and reducing erosion. The two elements are intimately related--accomplishment in one is usually reflected by an improvement in the other. Erosion is a serious problem on most of the public domain, but particularly in the Colorado River and Rio Grande basins where, despite low annual water yields, the public domain and similar lands on the Indian reservations contribute the major part of the sediment measured at the downstream gaging stations. In parts of the Missouri River basin also, erosion is obviously very active but the sediment yield contributed by the public domain cannot be as readily isolated. The reasons for the erosion are generally evident--the erodibility of the rock and soils and the sparsity of vegetation as a result of low precipitation, unfavorable soils, or past land use. How much is due to the land use is still controversial, resulting in many questions relative to planning corrective measures. The problem facing the early administrators of the Taylor Grazing Act to bring about proper use and conservation of the public domain was a difficult one because of the lack of records on actual grazing use in animal-unit months of the qualified allottees and the lack of data on treatment practices in an arid area. Reduction of grazing was imperative in some localities, but generally, it could not be brought about as rapidly as it should have been. Numbers of animal units in the grazing districts were reduced from about 3.6 million in 1941 to about 3.2 million in 1964, whereas the areas included in districts was increased about 3 percent. Reductions are still being made in certain areas where deterioration is evident. One of the earliest activities connected with management of the range was the development of water supplies to facilitate the distribution of grazing. The investigations needed for such development formed a large part of the early work in the Soil and Moisture program of the Geological Survey and has continued to be a major activity to the present time. Most of the work has involved investigations of sites for wells but has included also the investigation of proposed spring developments and collection of hydrologic data for use in reservoir design. Well-site investigations have been of two general types: (1) the investigation of a site selected by the land administration agency, and (2) an areal investigation covering entire grazing districts or units thereof. In each type of investigation, a study is made of the geology and the recharge conditions. Reports are prepared giving estimates of the depth of drilling required, the depth to water, the yield, and the quality of the water, together with other information on drilling conditions and developing. Springs are a significant so

Open-File Report

Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay

Poised at the interface of rivers, ocean, atmosphere and dense human settlement, estuaries are driven by a large array of natural and anthropogenic forces. San Francisco Bay exemplifies the fast-paced change occurring in many of the world's estuaries, bays and inland seas in response to these diverse forces. We use observations from this particularly well-studied estuary to illustrate responses to six drivers that are common agents of change where land and sea meet: water consumption and diversion; human modification of sediment supply; introduction of non-native species; sewage input; environmental policy; and climate shifts. In San Francisco Bay, responses to these drivers include, respectively, shifts in the timing and extent of freshwater inflow and salinity intrusion; decreasing turbidity; restructuring of plankton communities; nutrient enrichment; elimination of hypoxia and reduced metal contamination of biota; and food web changes that decrease resistance of the estuary to nutrient pollution. Detection of these changes and discovery of their causes through environmental monitoring have been essential for establishing and measuring outcomes of environmental policies that aim to maintain high water quality and sustain services provided by estuarine-coastal ecosystems. The wide range of variability time scales and the multiplicity of interacting drivers place heavy demands on estuarine monitoring programs. But the San Francisco Bay case study illustrates why the imperative for monitoring has never been greater.

California

Navigating the space between policy and practice: Toward a typology of collaborators in a federal land management agency

Navigating the space between policy and on-the-ground natural resource management presents unique challenges. We interviewed 22 U.S. Bureau of Land Management Field Office Managers to understand their perceptions toward, and applications of, collaboration with public and private stakeholders. Interviews were transcribed and open-coded using qualitative data analysis software. Then, each interview was represented visually using the MaxQDA MaxMaps feature. We deductively coded each visual model and created a typology based on a mix of salient traits exhibited by each group. Differences emerged in each group’s approach to teaching and learning; communication style; attitude toward collaboration; attention to relational and substantive outcomes; and the ability to create space within the agency mission to achieve mutually beneficial goals. Findings can help agencies navigate the challenges associated with aligning agency directives with on-the-ground realities in different contexts when collaborators exhibit different traits.

Society and Natural Resources

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana

The abandoned mine inventory of the United States—A brief summary

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 required the Secretary of the Interior to establish a program to inventory abandoned hard-rock mines in the United States. The Department of the Interior’s Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance asked the U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Deposit Database project (USMIN) to use existing data sources to build an inventory of all individual abandoned mine features in the United States. In addition to feature locations, this new database documents the surface land management agency, associated physical and environmental hazards, and any completed mitigation efforts. This information will improve risk assessment and support land management efforts, including hazard mitigation, ecosystem restoration planning, and reclamation. This fact sheet provides a brief overview of USMIN’s collaborative efforts with Federal, State, and Tribal agencies to build a comprehensive and authoritative national inventory of abandoned mine features.

Fact Sheet

Remote sensing of field-scale irrigation withdrawals in the central Ogallala aquifer region

For agricultural areas facing water scarcity, sustainable water use policy relies on irrigation information that is timely and at a high resolution, but existing publicly available water use data are often insufficient for monitoring compliance or understanding the influence of policy on individual farmer decisions. This study attempts to fill this data gap by using remote sensing to map annual irrigation quantity at the field-scale within the central Ogallala aquifer region of the United States. We compiled in situ annual irrigation volume data at the field scale in the Republican River Basin of Colorado for 2015–2018 and at the Public Land Survey System (PLSS) section scale in western Kansas for 2000–2016, which served as reference data in random forest models that relied on Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) along with maps of irrigated area, Landsat spectral indices, climate, soils, and derived hydrologic variables. The models explained 87% of the variability in irrigation volume in Colorado and 75% in Kansas, but accuracy declined when transferring the models in spatial cross-validation (Colorado R 2 =0.81; Kansas R 2 =0.51) and temporal cross-validation (Colorado R 2 =0.82; Kansas R 2 =0.68). Predicted annual totals of irrigation volume in western Kansas had a mean absolute error of 11.9%, which was slightly higher than the average annual change of 11%. Use of predicted irrigation maps also lead to an underestimated effect size for a water use restriction policy in Kansas. These results indicate that field- and section-scale irrigation can be mapped with reasonable accuracy within a region and time period that has adequate sample data, but that methods may need to be improved for applying the models more broadly in areas that lack extensive in situ irrigation data to support further research on water use and aid in structuring policy.

Colorado Kansas

Colonia development and land use change in Ambos Nogales, United States-Mexican border

This report outlines a planning approach taken by a Federal Government partnership that is meant to promote sustainable development in the future, integrating both sides of the United States-Mexican border. The twin-city area of Nogales, Ariz., and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales, has a common borderland history of urban growth presumably based on changes in policy and economic incentives. We document changes over time in an attempt to identify colonia development and settlement patterns along the border, combining a community-participation approach with a remote-sensing analysis, to create an online mapping service.

Open-File Report

Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making

The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. Copyright ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Ground Water

The aquatic real-time monitoring network; in-situ optical sensors for monitoring the nation's water quality

Floods, hurricanes, and longer-term changes in climate and land use can have profound effects on water quality due to shifts in hydrologic flow paths, water residence time, precipitation patterns, connectivity between rivers and uplands, and many other factors. In order to understand and respond to changes in hydrology and water quality, resource managers and policy makers have a need for accurate and early indicators, as well as the ability to assess possible mechanisms and likely outcomes. In-situ optical sensors-those making continuous measurements of constituents by absorbance or fluorescence properties in the environment at timescales of minutes to years-have a long history in oceanography for developing highly resolved concentrations and fluxes, but are not commonly used in freshwater systems. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Aquatic Real-Time Monitoring Network, with high-resolution optical data collection for organic carbon, nutrients, and sediment in large coastal rivers, along with continuous measurements of discharge, water temperature, and dissolved inorganic carbon. The collecting of continuous water-quality data in the Nation?s waterways has revealed temporal trends and spatial patterns in constituents that traditional sampling approaches fail to capture, and will serve a critical role in monitoring, assessment and decision-making in a rapidly changing landscape.

Fact Sheet

Minerals, lands, and geology for the common defence and general welfare, Volume 1, Before 1879 : A history of public lands, federal science and mapping policy, and development of mineral resources in the United States

This volume, the first of a four-volume study, is concerned with events in the United States before the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey, during the years in which geology evolved as a science and began to influence economic development and national policy. Subsequent volumes continue the story but focus on the Survey and its role in the events and developments of later years. The method of analysis demonstrates that knowledge of the Earth and its history, processes, and resources has provided a basis for intelligent economic development; also that geologists very soon realized that uncontrolled development of the land and other natural resources could not continue, that some limitations must be made on man's use of the Earth. The Geological Survey was established when public awareness of the need for balance between development and conservation of our resources was becoming evident. That balance is even more necessary now and in the future for the "general welfare" and "common defence" of the Nation. We can be grateful for the wisdom of our Founding Fathers in providing for publicly supported studies in earth science and engineering by well-trained and motivated scientists and engineers. Such studies, undertaken objectively in the search for facts, can continue to be of great value in the formulation and execution of wise policies to protect our environment and to maintain that balance between development and conservation of the natural resources.

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