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USGS2019

Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota

The gut microbiota plays a critical role in host health, yet remains poorly studied in wild species. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), key indicators of Arctic ecosystem health and environmental change, are currently affected by rapid shifts in habitat that may alter gut homeostasis. Declining sea ice has led to a divide in the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation such that an increasing proportion of individuals now inhabit onshore coastal regions during the open-water period (‘onshore bears’) while others continue to exhibit their typical behaviour of remaining on the ice (‘offshore bears’). We propose that bears that have altered their habitat selection in response to climate change will exhibit a distinct gut microbiota diversity and composition, which may ultimately have important consequences for their health. Here, we perform the first assessment of abundance and diversity in the faecal microbiota of wild polar bears using 16S rRNA Illumina technology. We find that bacterial diversity is significantly higher in onshore bears compared to offshore bears. The majority of unique bacterial taxa for onshore bears belonged to the phyla Proteobacteria (a proposed indicator of poor health in adult humans), whereas for offshore bears, Firmicutes (associated with adiposity) dominated. We conclude that climate-driven changes in polar bear land use are associated with distinct microbial communities. In doing so, we present the first case of global change mediated alterations in the gut microbiota of a free-roaming wild animal.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Physiological and nutritional constraints on zooplankton productivity due to eutrophication and climate change predicted using a resource-based modeling approach

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links freshwater cladoceran and copepod daily production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios with water temperature, phytoplankton biomass and community composition, and zooplankton feeding selectivity. This model was used to evaluate constraints on zooplankton growth under four hypothetical scenarios: involving natural plankton community seasonal succession; lake fertilization to enhance fisheries production; eutrophication; and climatic warming. Our novel modeling approach predicts zooplankton production is strongly dependent on seasonal variation in resource availability and quality, which results in more complex zooplankton dynamics than predicted by simpler temperature dependent models. For mesotrophic and hypereutrophic lakes, our study suggests that the ultimate control over zooplankton P/B ratios shifts from physiological control during colder periods to strong resource control during warmer periods. Our resource-based model provided important insights into the nature of biophysical control of zooplankton under a changing climate that has crucial implications for food web energy transfer and fisheries production.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2021

Influence of water temperature and biotic interactions on the distribution of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) in a population stronghold under climate change

Climate warming is expected to have substantial impacts on native trout across the Rocky Mountains, but there is little understanding of how these changes affect future distributions of co-occurring native fishes within population strongholds. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to investigate the role of abiotic (e.g., temperature) and biotic factors (bull trout presence, Salvelinus confluentus ) on distributions of westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ; WCT) in the North Fork Flathead River, USA and Canada. The probability of WCT presence increased with stream temperature and decreased with channel gradient and bull trout presence, yet the effect of bull trout was reduced with increasing pool densities. Combining this model with spatially explicit stream temperature projections, we predict a 29% increase in suitable habitat under high emissions through 2075, with gains at mid-elevation sites predicted to exceed bull trout thermal tolerances and high-elevation sites expected to become more thermally suitable for WCT. Our study illustrates the importance of considering abiotic and biotic drivers to assess species response to climate change, helping to guide local-scale climate adaptation and management.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗

USGS2015

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Lake Lugano↗

USGS1986

Use of the chloride ion in determining hydrologic-basin water budgets - A 3-year case study in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, U.S.A.

Measurement of chloride concentration and water equivalent in precipitation and recharge at a site can be extrapolated to determine available moisture in a nearby basin. This method also may be extrapolated to a basin with similar climatic characteristics if precipitation, vegetation, and topographic data are available. The average accuracy of the total of evaporation, recharge, and runoff (assuming no storage) was about 10% of total precipitation. Soil-moisture measurements indicate the entire 10% error in moisture balance can be attributed to annual changes in storage. Data requirements for the method are considerably less than data requirements for energy-budget methods to determine available moisture. Potential applications of the method to hydrologic problem-solving are: 1. (1) Estimating total available moisture from chloride concentrations in groundwater or surface water or both. 2. (2) Modeling paleoclimate scenarios and evaluating their correctness by comparison with paleo-groundwater chloride concentrations. 3. (3) Providing an independent comparison for water budgets obtained by energy-budget methods. Obviously the method cannot be applied readily to systems with a lithologic source of chloride. Most systems primarily consisting of tuff, intrusive volcanic rock, nonmarine sediments, quartzite, and other metamorphic rocks will be suitable for application of the model.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Eruptive and environmental processes recorded by diatoms in volcanically-dispersed lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Late Pleistocene diatomaceous sediment was widely dispersed along with volcanic ash (tephra) across and beyond New Zealand by the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption from Taupo volcano. We present a detailed analysis of the diatom populations in the Oruanui tephra and the newly discovered floras in two other eruptions from the same volcano: the 28.6 ka Okaia and 1.8 ka Taupo eruptions. For comparison, the diatoms were also examined in Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). Our study demonstrates how these microfossils provide insights into the lake history of the TVZ since the Last Glacial Maximum. Morphometric analysis of Aulacoseira valve dimensions provides a useful quantitative tool to distinguish environmental and eruptive processes within and between individual tephras. The Oruanui and Okaia diatom species and valve dimensions are highly consistent with a shared volcanic source, paleolake and eruption style (involving large-scale magma-water interaction). They are distinct from lacustrine sediments sourced elsewhere in the TVZ. Correspondence analysis shows that small, intact samples of erupted lake sediment (i.e., lithic clasts in ignimbrite) contain heterogeneous diatom populations, reflecting local variability in species composition of the paleolake and its shallowly-buried sediments. Our analysis also shows a dramatic post-Oruanui supereruption decline in Cyclostephanos novaezelandiae, which likely reflects a combination of (1) reorganisation of the watershed in the aftermath of the eruption, and (2) overall climate warming following the Last Glacial Maximum. This decline is reflected in substantially lower proportions of C. novaezelandiae in the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption deposits, and even fewer in post-1.8 ka sediments from modern (Holocene) Lake Taupo. Our analysis highlights how the excellent preservation of siliceous microfossils in volcanic tephra may fingerprint the volcanic source region and retain a valuable record of volcanically-influenced environmental change.

Taupo Volcanic Zone↗

USGS2020

Assessing the potential to mitigate climate-related expansion of largemouth bass populations using angler harvest

Climate-related changes in fish communities can present new challenges for fishery managers who must address declines in cool- and cold-water sportfish while dealing with increased abundance of warm-water sportfish. We used largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) in Wisconsin lakes as model populations to determine whether angler harvest provides a realistic method for reducing abundance of a popular warm-water sportfish that has become more prevalent and has prompted management concerns around the globe. Model results indicate largemouth bass will be resilient to increased fishing mortality. Furthermore, high rates of voluntary catch-and-release occurring in most largemouth bass fisheries likely preclude fishing mortality rates required to reduce bass abundance at meaningful levels (≥25% reductions). Increasing fishing mortality in these scenarios may require more “stimulus” than merely providing anglers with greater harvest opportunities via less stringent harvest regulations. Angler harvest could result in populations dominated by small fish, a scenario that may be undesirable to anglers, but could provide ecological benefits in certain situations.

Wisconain↗

USGS2024

Holocene foraminifera, climate, and decelerating rise in sea level on the mud patch, southern New England continental shelf

We examined Holocene benthic foraminiferal biofacies, % planktonic foraminifera, and lithofacies changes from New England mud patch cores and present a relative sea-level (RSL) record to evaluate evolution of these rapidly deposited (30–79 cm/kyr) muds. Sandy lower Holocene sections are dominated by Bulimina marginata . The mud patch developed from 11–9 ka as RSL rise slowed from 10 to 7 mm/yr; mud deposition began when the cores (69 to 91 m modern) were inundated below storm wave base. An Elphidium-B. marginata fauna developed at ca. 7–6 ka as RSL rise slowed from approximately 7 to 2 mm/yr. A Globobulimina fauna developed at 3 ka as RSL rise slowed to 1 mm/yr, reflecting lower O 2 conditions. Single specimen δ 18 O analyses of Globobulimina show ∼1‰ variations over the past 3 kyr, reflecting a shelf bottom water seasonal cycle of 4–5°C, and a temperature minimum during the Little Ice Age with warming since.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗

USGS2018

Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant ( p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2015

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗

USGS2010

Controls on mangrove forest‐atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park

We report on net ecosystem production (NEP) and key environmental controls on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between a mangrove forest and the atmosphere in the coastal Florida Everglades. An eddy covariance system deployed above the canopy was used to determine NEE during January 2004 through August 2005. Maximum daytime NEE ranged from −20 to −25 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 between March and May. Respiration (R d ) was highly variable (2.81 ± 2.41 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 ), reaching peak values during the summer wet season. During the winter dry season, forest CO 2 assimilation increased with the proportion of diffuse solar irradiance in response to greater radiative transfer in the forest canopy. Surface water salinity and tidal activity were also important controls on NEE. Daily light use efficiency was reduced at high (>34 parts per thousand (ppt)) compared to low (<17 ppt) salinity by 46%. Tidal inundation lowered daytime R d by ∼0.9 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 and nighttime R d by ∼0.5 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 . The forest was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with an annual NEP of 1170 ± 127 g C m −2 during 2004. This unusually high NEP was attributed to year‐round productivity and low ecosystem respiration which reached a maximum of only 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Tidal export of dissolved inorganic carbon derived from belowground respiration likely lowered the estimates of mangrove forest respiration. These results suggest that carbon balance in mangrove coastal systems will change in response to variable salinity and inundation patterns, possibly resulting from secular sea level rise and climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Floral ecology and insect visitation in riparian Tamarix sp. (saltcedar)

Climate change projections for semiarid and arid North America include reductions in stream discharge that could adversely affect riparian plant species dependent on stream-derived ground water. In order to better understand this potential impact, we used a space-for-time substitution to test the hypotheses that increasing depth-to-groundwater (DGW) is inversely related to Tamarix sp. (saltcedar) flower abundance (F) and nectar production per flower (N). We also assessed whether DGW affected the richness or abundance of insects visiting flowers. We examined Tamarix floral attributes and insect visitation patterns during 2010 and 2011 at three locations along a deep DWG gradient (3.2–4.1 m) on a floodplain terrace adjacent to Las Vegas Wash, an effluent-dominated Mojave Desert stream. Flower abundance and insect visitation patterns differed between years, but no effect from DGW on either F or N was detected. An eruption of a novel non-native herbivore, the splendid tamarisk weevil (Coniatus splendidulus), likely reduced flower production in 2011.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2017

Structural equation model of total phosphorus loads in the Red River of the North Basin, USA and Canada

Attribution of the causes of trends in nutrient loading is often limited to correlation, qualitative reasoning, or references to the work of others. This paper represents efforts to improve causal attribution of water-quality changes. The Red River of the North basin provides a regional test case because of international interest in the reduction of total phosphorus loads and the availability of long-term total phosphorus data and ancillary geospatial data with the potential to explain changes in water quality over time. The objectives of the study are to investigate structural equation modeling methods for application to water-quality problems and to test causal hypotheses related to the drivers of total phosphorus loads over the period 1970 to 2012. Multiple working hypotheses that explain total phosphorus loads and methods for estimating missing ancillary data were developed, and water-quality related challenges to structural equation modeling (including skewed data and scaling issues) were addressed. The model indicates that increased precipitation in season 1 (November–February) or season 2 (March–June) would increase total phosphorus loads in the basin. The effect of agricultural practices on total phosphorus loads was significant, although the effect is about one-third of the effect of season 1 precipitation. The structural equation model representing loads at six sites in the basin shows that climate and agricultural practices explain almost 60% of the annual total phosphorus load in the Red River of the North basin. The modeling process and the unexplained variance highlight the need for better ancillary long-term data for causal assessments.

Red River of the North Basin↗

USGS2021

An empirically based simulation model to inform flow management for endangered species conservation

Increasing water demand, water development, and ongoing climate change have driven extensive changes to the hydrology, geomorphology and biology of arid-land rivers globally, driving an increasing need to understand how annual hydrologic conditions affect the distribution and abundance of imperiled desert fish populations. We analyzed the relationship between annual hydrologic conditions and the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ) in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA, using hurdle models to predict both presence and density as a function of integrated annual hydrologic metrics. Both presence and density were positively related to spring high flow magnitude and duration and negatively related to summer drying, as indicated by an integrated flow metric. Simulations suggest hydrologic conditions near the wettest observed in the data set would be required to meet recovery goals in a single year in all reaches. We demonstrate how the models developed herein can be used to examine alternative water management strategies, including strategies that may currently be socially and logistically infeasible to implement, to identify strategies minimizing trade-offs between conservation and other management goals.

New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Snow and ice in a changing hydrological world

On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, the 100th and 50th anniversaries of the First and Second International Polar Years, and the 25th anniversary of the International Geophysical Year, it seems appropriate to re-examine the world's water balance and the role of snow and ice in the global hydrological climatic system. Snow cover on land (especially in the Northern Hemisphere) and sea ice (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) vary seasonally, and this seasonal change has an important effect on the world climate because snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation efficiently and affect other heat flow processes between atmosphere and land or ocean. Glaciers, including ice sheets, store most of the fresh water on Earth, but change dimensions relatively slowly. There is no clear evidence that the glacier ice volume currently is declining, but more needs to be known about mountain glacier and ice sheet mass balances. The current rise in sea level poses an enigma: thermal expansion of the oceans may account for half of the present rise, but the other half is unexplained. Although major changes in the large ice sheets take place over time scales of 10 4 to 10 5 years, marine ice sheets may be subject to rapid disintegration due to grounding line instability, perhaps accompanied by surging. Ice cores may produce remarkably complete histories of air temperature, precipitation, fallout, and atmospheric composition. A recent core through the Greenland Ice Sheet shows an abrupt transition from glacial to modern climate just over 10000 years ago, suggesting that climate is an “almost intransitive” system. Because of the possibility of abrupt climate transitions and the uncertain stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, future climatic variations are difficult to predict. The calculated heating of the atmosphere in the polar regions due to CO 2 increase is, therefore, of special interest.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2015

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Water-use data in the United States: Challenges and future directions

In the United States, greater attention has been given to developing water supplies and quantifying available waters than determining who uses water, how much they withdraw and consume, and how and where water use occurs. As water supplies are stressed due to an increasingly variable climate, changing land-use, and growing water needs, greater consideration of the demand side of the water balance equation is essential. Data about the spatial and temporal aspects of water use for different purposes are now critical to long-term water supply planning and resource management. We detail the current state of water-use data, the major stakeholders involved in their collection and applications, and the challenges in obtaining high-quality nationally consistent data applicable to a range of scales and purposes. Opportunities to improve access, use, and sharing of water-use data are outlined. We cast a vision for a world-class national water-use data product that is accessible, timely, and spatially detailed. Our vision will leverage the strengths of existing local, state, and federal agencies to facilitate rapid and informed decision-making, modeling, and science for water resources. To inform future decision-making regarding water supplies and uses, we must coordinate efforts to substantially improve our capacity to collect, model, and disseminate water-use data.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS1999

Climate and lake-level history of the northern altiplano, Bolivia, as recorded in holocene sediments of the Rio Desaguadero

Strata exposed in terraces and modern cutbanks along the Rio Desaguadero contain a variety of lithofacies that were deposited in four distinct facies associations. These facies associations document a history of aggradation and downcutting that is linked to Holocene climate change on the Altiplano. Braided-stream, meandering-stream, deltaic and shoreline, and lacustrine sediments preserved in multi-level terraces in the northern Rio Desaguadero Valley record two high-water intervals; one between 4500 and 3900 yr BP and another between 2000 and 2200 yr BP. These wet periods were interrupted by three periods of fluvial downcutting, centered at approximately 4000 yr BP, 3600 yr BP, and after 2000 yr BP. Braided-river sediments preserved in a single terrace level in the southern Rio Desaguadero Valley record a history of nearly continuous fluvial sedimentation from at least 7000 yr BP until approximately 3200 yr BP that was followed by a single episode (post-3210 yr BP) of down-cutting and lateral migration. The deposition and subsequent fluvial downcutting of the northern strata was controlled by changes in effective moisture that can be correlated to Holocene water-level fluctuations of Lake Titicaca. The deposition and dissection of braided-stream sediments to the south are more likely controlled by a combination of base-level change and sediment input from the Rio Mauri.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗