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The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

ICES Journal of Marine Science

Data-based comparisons of moments estimators using historical and paleoflood data

This paper presents the first systematic comparison, using historical and paleoflood data, of moments-based flood frequency methods. Peak flow estimates were compiled from streamflow-gaging stations with historical and/or paleoflood data at 36 sites located in the United States, Argentina, United Kingdom and China, covering a diverse range of hydrologic conditions. The Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) and the Bulletin 17B historical weighting procedure (B17H) were compared in terms of goodness of fit using 25 of the data sets. Results from this comparison indicate that EMA is a viable alternative to current B17H procedures from an operational perspective, and performed equal to or better than B17H for the data analyzed. We demonstrate satisfactory EMA performance for the remaining 11 sites with multiple thresholds and binomial censoring, which B17H cannot accommodate. It is shown that the EMA estimator readily incorporates these types of information and the LP-III distribution provided an adequate fit to the data in most cases. The results shown here are consistent with Monte Carlo simulation studies, and demonstrate that EMA is preferred overall to B17H. The Bulletin 17B document could be revised to include an option for EMA as an alternative to the existing historical weighting approach. These results are of practical relevance to hydrologists and water resources managers for applications in floodplain management, design of hydraulic structures, and risk analysis for dams. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on Ventenata dubia published from 2010 to 2020

Integrating recent science into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing science information can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Invasive annual grasses are widely distributed throughout the western United States and threaten native ecosystems by altering fire regimes, replacing native plants, and altering grazing patterns, often with tremendous associated costs. One invasive annual grass, Ventenata dubia (hereafter, ventenata), was first introduced to the United States in the 1950s and has recently been identified as a management concern. Ventenata has a wide native geographic range, from Africa to northern Europe, and could thus potentially spread widely in the United States if left unmanaged. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, government reports, and data products on ventenata published between January 1, 2010, and August 27, 2020. We first conducted a systematic search of three reference databases and three government databases using the search phrase: “ventenata” OR “Ventenata dubia.” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) publications that were not focused in North America, (4) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (5) products for which ventenata was not a research focus or for which the study did not present new data or findings about ventenata. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, species and population characteristics, habitat, control and management efforts) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 505 total products, of which 29 met our criteria for inclusion. Nonnative invasive plants; weed management; behavior or demographics; dispersal, spread, vectors and pathways; site-scale habitat characteristics; survival; and weed management subtopic: herbicides were the management topics most commonly addressed. The online version of this annotated bibliography will be searchable by topic, location, and year; it will also include links to each original publication, where available. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore landscapes and control nonnative invasive species across the western United States.

Open-File Report

Methane hydrates in nature - Current knowledge and challenges

Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the United States Congress enacted the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. At the same time, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in Japan launched a research program to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. India, China, the Republic of Korea, and other nations also have established large methane hydrate research and development programs. Government-funded scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrates in nature. Numerous studies have shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world may exceed the volume of known organic carbon sources. However, methane hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge, and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of methane hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various methane hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural methane hydrates, (5) analyzing the methane hydrate role as a geohazard, (6) establishing the means to detect and characterize methane hydrate accumulations using geologic and geophysical data, and (7) establishing the thermodynamic phase equilibrium properties of methane hydrates as a function of temperature, pressure, and gas composition. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Consortium for Ocean Leadership (COL) combined their efforts in 2012 to assess the contributions that scientific drilling has made and could continue to make to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. COL assembled a Methane Hydrate Project Science Team with members from academia, industry, and government. This Science Team worked with COL and DOE to develop and host the Methane Hydrate Community Workshop, which surveyed a substantial cross section of the methane hydrate research community for input on the most important research developments in our understanding of methane hydrates in nature and their potential role as an energy resource, a geohazard, and/or as an agent of global climate change. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur in nature is still growing and evolving, and it is known with certainty that field, laboratory, and modeling studies have contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information needed to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Journal of Chemical and Engineering Data

Increased scientific rigor will improve reliability of research and effectiveness of management

Rigorous science that produces reliable knowledge is critical to wildlife management because it increases accurate understanding of the natural world and informs management decisions effectively. Application of a rigorous scientific method based on hypothesis testing minimizes unreliable knowledge produced by research. To evaluate the prevalence of scientific rigor in wildlife research, we examined 24 issues of the Journal of Wildlife Management from August 2013 through July 2016. We found 43.9% of studies did not state or imply a priori hypotheses, which are necessary to produce reliable knowledge. We posit that this is due, at least in part, to a lack of common understanding of what rigorous science entails, how it produces more reliable knowledge than other forms of interpreting observations, and how research should be designed to maximize inferential strength and usefulness of application. Current primary literature does not provide succinct explanations of the logic behind a rigorous scientific method or readily applicable guidance for employing it, particularly in wildlife biology; we therefore synthesized an overview of the history, philosophy, and logic that define scientific rigor for biological studies. A rigorous scientific method includes 1) generating a research question from theory and prior observations, 2) developing hypotheses (i.e., plausible biological answers to the question), 3) formulating predictions (i.e., facts that must be true if the hypothesis is true), 4) designing and implementing research to collect data potentially consistent with predictions, 5) evaluating whether predictions are consistent with collected data, and 6) drawing inferences based on the evaluation. Explicitly testing a priori hypotheses reduces overall uncertainty by reducing the number of plausible biological explanations to only those that are logically well supported. Such research also draws inferences that are robust to idiosyncratic observations and unavoidable human biases. Offering only post hoc interpretations of statistical patterns (i.e., a posteriori hypotheses) adds to uncertainty because it increases the number of plausible biological explanations without determining which have the greatest support. Further, post hoc interpretations are strongly subject to human biases. Testing hypotheses maximizes the credibility of research findings, makes the strongest contributions to theory and management, and improves reproducibility of research. Management decisions based on rigorous research are most likely to result in effective conservation of wildlife resources.

Journal of Wildlife Management

LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment

LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at www.landfire.gov , accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local users.

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Publications of Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2001

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESPT) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth-science studies in the Western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues, such as ground-water quality, landslides and other potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2001 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, and the Las Vegas urban corridor. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the Western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2001, as well as additional 1999 and 2000 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-File Report 00–215 and USGS Open-File Report 01–198). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these web publications are USGS Open-File Reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information.

Open-File Report

Publications of the Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2002

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESPT) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, landslides and other potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2001 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, and the Las Vegas urban corridor. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2002 as well as additional 1998 and 2001 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-File Report 00-215, USGS Open-File Report 01-198, and USGS Open-File Report 02-269). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information. Information on ordering USGS publications can be found on the World Wide Web or by calling 1-888-ASK-USGS. The U.S. Geological Survey’s web server for geologic information in the western United States is located at http://geology.wr.usgs.gov. More information is available about the WESPT is available on-line at the team website.

Open-File Report

Publications of the Western Geologic Mapping Team 1997-1998

The Western Geologic Mapping Team (WGMT) of the U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Division (USGS, GD), conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth-science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis currently include southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, the Las Vegas urban corridor, and selected National Park lands. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WGMT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WGMT released in calendar years 1997 and 1998. Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WGMT staff. However, the list also includes some publications authored by formal non-USGS cooperators with the WGMT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WGMT in cooperation with WGMT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Most of these Web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information. For these, the bibliographic citation refers specifically to an explanatory pamphlet containing information about the content and accessibility of the database, not to the actual map or related information comprising the database itself.

Open-File Report

Interpreting the role of pH on stable isotopes in large benthic foraminifera

Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are prolific producers of calcium carbonate sediments in shallow, tropical environments that are being influenced by ocean acidification (OA). Two LBF species, Amphistegina gibbosa (Order Rotaliida) with low-Mg calcite tests and Archaias angulatus (Order Miliolida) with high-Mg calcite tests, were studied to assess the effects of pH 7.6 on oxygen and carbon isotopic fractionation between test calcite and ambient seawater. The δ 18 O and δ 13 C values of terminal chambers and of whole adult tests of both species after 6 weeks were not significantly different between pH treatments of 8.0 and 7.6. However, tests of juveniles produced during the 6-week treatments showed significant differences between δ 18 O and δ 13 C values from control (pH 8.0) when compared with the treatment (pH 7.6) for both species. Although each individual's growth was photographed and measured, difficulty in distinguishing and manually extracting newly precipitated calcite from adult specimens likely confounded any differences in isotopic signals. However, juvenile specimens that resulted from asexual reproduction that occurred during the experiments did not contain old carbonate that could confound the new isotopic signals. These data reveal a potential bias in the design of OA experiments if only adults are used to investigate changes in test chemistries. Furthermore, the results reaffirm that different calcification mechanisms in these two foraminiferal orders control the fractionation of stable isotopes in the tests and will reflect decreasing pH in seawater somewhat differently. .

ICES Journal of Marine Science

An empirically based simulation model to inform flow management for endangered species conservation

Increasing water demand, water development, and ongoing climate change have driven extensive changes to the hydrology, geomorphology and biology of arid-land rivers globally, driving an increasing need to understand how annual hydrologic conditions affect the distribution and abundance of imperiled desert fish populations. We analyzed the relationship between annual hydrologic conditions and the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ) in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA, using hurdle models to predict both presence and density as a function of integrated annual hydrologic metrics. Both presence and density were positively related to spring high flow magnitude and duration and negatively related to summer drying, as indicated by an integrated flow metric. Simulations suggest hydrologic conditions near the wettest observed in the data set would be required to meet recovery goals in a single year in all reaches. We demonstrate how the models developed herein can be used to examine alternative water management strategies, including strategies that may currently be socially and logistically infeasible to implement, to identify strategies minimizing trade-offs between conservation and other management goals.

New Mexico

Maintaining momentum for collaborative working groups in a post-pandemic world

Scientific progress depends in part on our ability to synthesize heterogeneous data and ideas into new models and paradigms. In environmental sciences, such synthesis has been particularly effective when conducted by collaborative working groups: diverse groups of researchers and practitioners brought together for a concentrated period of collaboration on key questions. Such work is often done at synthesis centres: organizations that promote, fund, organize and host working groups and other collaborative research and training activities 1 . However, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, synthesis centres have had to rapidly adapt to supporting fully virtual working groups; the eight centres we direct supported 68 virtual working groups in the past year. Based on this experience, we conclude — contrary to a recent editorial on conferences published in this journal 2 — that virtual gatherings, while providing a bridge during the pandemic, cannot replace immersive, in-person collaborations. In-person working group meetings involve productive and varied interactions for many hours over consecutive days. We have found that virtual sessions lose effectiveness after a few hours, as participants become fatigued from staring at a screen or juggling local demands. While virtual meetings can work for short, well-delineated tasks, they are less suited for unstructured and free-flowing discussions — and thus struggle to create the social cohesion and trust known to fuel creative breakthroughs during week-long in-person meetings 3 .

Nature Ecology and Evolution

Publications of the Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2000

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2000 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, the Las Vegas urban corridor, and selected National Park lands. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2000 as well as additional 1999 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-file Report 00-215). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these Web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information.

Open-File Report

An empirical approach to inversion of an unconventional helicopter electromagnetic dataset

A helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) survey acquired at the U.S. Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) used a modification of a traditional mining airborne method flown at low levels for detailed characterization of shallow waste sites. The low sensor height, used to increase resolution, invalidates standard assumptions used in processing HEM data. Although the survey design strategy was sound, traditional interpretation techniques, routinely used in industry, proved ineffective. Processed data and apparent resistivity maps were severely distorted, and hence unusable, due to low flight height effects, high magnetic permeability of the basalt host, and the conductive, three-dimensional nature of the waste site targets.To accommodate these interpretation challenges, we modified a one-dimensional inversion routine to include a linear term in the objective function that allows for the magnetic and three-dimensional electromagnetic responses in the in-phase data. Although somewhat ad hoc, the use of this term in the inverse routine, referred to as the shift factor, was successful in defining the waste sites and reducing noise due to the low flight height and magnetic characteristics of the host rock. Many inversion scenarios were applied to the data and careful analysis was necessary to determine the parameters appropriate for interpretation, hence the approach was empirical. Data from three areas were processed with this scheme to highlight different interpretational aspects of the method. Wastes sites were delineated with the shift terms in two of the areas, allowing for separation of the anthropomorphic targets from the natural one-dimensional host. In the third area, the estimated resistivity and the shift factor were used for geological mapping. The high magnetic content of the native soil enabled the mapping of disturbed soil with the shift term. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Applied Geophysics

Suggestions for presenting the results of data analyses

We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the presentation of results under these alternative procedures and on nontesting aspects of classical frequentists methods of statistical analysis. Null hypothesis testing has come under intense criticism. We recommend less reporting of the results of statistical tests of null hypotheses in cases where the null is surely false anyway, or where the null hypothesis is of little interest to science or management.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Effects of roadside habitat and fox density on a snow track survey for foxes in Ohio

Many methods have been used to survey red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and gray fox (Urocyon dnereoargenteus) populations. However, none has proven entirely satisfactory, and wild foxes remain one of the most difficult economically important wildlife species to monitor. In this study we evaluated the reliability of a snow track survey method for foxes by investigating whether the average number of road crossings per fox is influenced by changes in roadside habitat or changes in fox density. Several snow track surveys were conducted in two Ohio counties during January and February, 1984. Data on roadside habitat, relative fox densities, and fox crossings were collected. Results suggested that changes in roadside habitat could influence the average number of crossings per fox and, therefore, changes in the index could occur independent of actual population changes. We found no evidence that crossings per fox varied with fox density, but further research is needed to substantiate this finding.

Ohio Journal of Science

Crocoite: An unusual mode of occurrence for lead in coal

What is believed to be a very unusual mode of occurrence for lead in coal has been identified as crocoite (PbCrO4). As part of a larger study on trace elements and mineralogy in the Cretaceous Main Seam in New Zealand, crocoite was found in raw coal samples within the lower part of the coal seam. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and bulk chemical data from a SEM equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analyser (EDXA) have confirmed the identity of this mineral. This is apparently the first time that crocoite has been reported in coal. Crocoite usually occurs only in the oxidised zone of lead mineral deposits. The occurrence of this mineral in the Main Seam coal implies that the deposit was exposed to an oxidising environment at some stage, most likely after coalification. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

International Journal of Coal Geology

The role of free and bound water in irradiation preservation: Free radical damage as a function of the physical state of water

English sole fillets previously equilibrated with aqueous 0.1% cysteine were dehydrated by three methods to moisture levels ranging from 2 to 72%. Model systems using cellulose to replace the fish tissue were also used. The samples were irradiated at 1 Mrad in an air, nitrogen, or oxygen atmosphere. The destruction of −SH groups was measured and related to the amount and physical state of the tissue water. As free water was removed, destruction steadily increased, reaching a maximum at about 20% moisture. Destruction decreased markedly at moisture levels below 10%, and calorimetric measurements confirmed that 10% moisture was about the level of bound water in this species. These data suggest that dehydration favors the reaction of solute molecules with free radicals formed in the free water of muscle cells. At moisture levels greater than about 20%, simple free radical recombination is more likely than reaction with solute molecules, while below 20% moisture the reverse is true. The calculated α values support this conclusion, as do the results from model systems using cellulose.

Journal of Food Science