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Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

Introduction Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. Methods Using statistically downscaled future climate projections developed using constructed analogues, a methodology was developed to further downscale the projections spatially using a gradient-inverse-distance-squared approach for application to hydrologic modeling at 270-m spatial resolution. Results This paper illustrates a methodology to downscale and bias-correct national GCMs to subkilometer scales that are applicable to fine-scale environmental processes. Four scenarios were chosen to bracket the range of future emissions put forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fine-scale applications of downscaled datasets of ecological and hydrologic correlations to variation in climate are illustrated. Conclusions The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Ecological Processes

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region; Santa Barbara Channel Coastal and Ocean Science

USGS coastal and ocean science in the Western United States and the Pacific integrates scientific expertise in geology, water resources, biology, and geography. Operating from 10 major science centers in the Western Region, the USGS is addressing a broad geographic and thematic range of important coastal and marine issues. In California, the Santa Barbara Channel represents one area of focus.

Fact Sheet

Eastern Ecological Science Center — Fish and aquatic animal health

Science provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC) helps to protect fish and aquatic animal health and support disease management of our Nation’s fisheries and aquatic animal populations. Our capabilities and expertise span diverse, yet highly integrated disciplines related to all aspects of biology, ecology, and animal health. Our scientists work to identify novel and emerging pathogens and diseases to assess fish and aquatic animal responses to parasites, pathogens, adverse environmental conditions, and chemical exposures. Eastern Ecological Science Center research is conducted both in laboratories and in the field in various aquatic environments ranging from headwater streams to the ocean. The EESC team provides science leadership and support for fisheries and aquatic species specialists nationwide.

Fact Sheet

Protocols for collection of streamflow, water-quality, streambed-sediment, periphyton, macroinvertebrate, fish, and habitat data to describe stream quality for the Hydrobiological Monitoring Program, Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery Program, city of Wichita, Kansas

The city of Wichita, Kansas uses the Equus Beds aquifer, one of two sources, for municipal water supply. To meet future water needs, plans for artificial recharge of the aquifer have been implemented in several phases. Phase I of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) Program began with injection of water from the Little Arkansas River into the aquifer for storage and subsequent recovery in 2006. Construction of a river intake structure and surface-water treatment plant began as implementation of Phase II of the Equus Beds ASR Program in 2010. An important aspect of the ASR Program is the monitoring of water quality and the effects of recharge activities on stream conditions. Physical, chemical, and biological data provide the basis for an integrated assessment of stream quality. This report describes protocols for collecting streamflow, water-quality, streambed-sediment, periphyton, macroinvertebrate, fish, and habitat data as part of the city of Wichita's hydrobiological monitoring program (HBMP). Following consistent and reliable methods for data collection and processing is imperative for the long-term success of the monitoring program.

Kansas

Liming of acidified waters: issues and research - a report of the International Liming Workshop

Acidic deposition is a problem of significant national and international concern. It is strongly suspected that acidic deposition has adversely affected aquatic resources in Scandinavia and North America. While substantial resources are being devoted to understanding the causative factors associated with surface water acidification, much less research is being conducted on mitigative strategies. Mitigative techniques involving liming may be useful for short-term protection of specific component of aquatic communities or for renovation of seriously impacted aquatic ecosystems. The selection of effective liming strategies is based on an integrated understanding of the following key factors: biological systems, water chemistry, sediment chemistry, hydrology, and watershed characteristics, effectiveness of neutralizing materials, and application techniques. Research in Scandinavia, Canada, and the U.S. has led to a partial understanding of some of the key factors for successful neutralization of surface waters (Bengtsson, 1982; Fraser and Britt, 1982). However, conflicting results of liming operations and experiments have been reported. (Fraser et al., 1982; Fraser and Britt, 1982; Sverdrup and Bjerle, 1982). Additional research is required to improve the ability of scientists and resource managers to select effective liming strategies. An International Liming workshop was convened during 19-25 September 1982 at the University of Washington's Friday Harbor Laboratories. The major objective of this workshop were: - To identify the most critical deficiencies in the scientific understanding of liming techniques and their long-term consequences. - To develop and document a research strategy to address information deficiencies that are pertinent to the protection or renovation of acidic surface waters in the United States. The participants who contributed to this workshop are listed in Table 1.

FWS/OBS

Environmental Setting and Implications on Water Quality, Upper Colorado River Basin, Colorado and Utah

The Upper Colorado River Basin in Colorado and Utah is 1 of 60 study units selected for water-quality assessment as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment program, which began full implementation in 1991. Understanding the environmental setting of the Upper Colorado River Basin study unit is important in evaluating water-quality issues in the basin. Natural and human factors that affect water quality in the basin are presented, including an overview of the physiography, climatic conditions, general geology and soils, ecoregions, population, land use, water management and use, hydrologic characteristics, and to the extent possible aquatic biology. These factors have substantial implications on water-quality conditions in the basin. For example, high concentrations of dissolved solids and selenium are present in the natural background water conditions of surface and ground water in parts ofthe basin. In addition, mining, urban, and agricultural land and water uses result in the presence of certain constituents in the surface and ground water of the basin that can detrimentally affect water quality. The environmental setting of the study unit provides a framework of the basin characteristics, which is important in the design of integrated studies of surface water, ground water, and biology.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget. Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft 3 /s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft 3 /s per decade. The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft 3 /s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow. Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells. Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts. Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time. The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration. A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Pennsylvania

The developing framework of marine ecotoxicology: Pollutants as a variable in marine ecosystems?

Marine ecosystems include a subset in which at least some interrelated geochemical, biochemical, physiological, population and community characteristics are changed by pollutants. Moderate contamination is relatively widespread in coastal and estuarine ecosystems, so the subset of ecosystems with at least some processes affected could be relatively large. Pollutant influences have changed and will probably continue to change on time scales of decades. Biological exposures and dose in such ecosystems are species-specific and determined by how the species is exposed to different environmental media and the geochemistry of individual pollutants within those media. Bioaccumulation models offer significant promise for interpreting such exposures. Biological responses to pollutants need to be more directly linked to exposure and dose. At the level of the individual this might be improved by better understanding relationships between tissue concentrations of pollutants and responses to pollutants. Multi-discipline field and laboratory studies combined with advanced understanding of some basic processes have reduced the ambiguities in interpreting a few physiological/organismic responses to pollutants in nature. Recognition of pollutant-induced patterns in population responses could lead to similar advances. A rational framework for ecotoxicology is developing, but its further advance is dependent upon better integration of ecotoxicology with basic marine ecology and biology.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology

Concepts for monitoring water quality in the Spokane River Basin, northern Idaho and eastern Washington

Numerous environmental studies have been conducted in the Spokane River Basin over the past several decades by government agencies, academic institutions, and environmental engineering firms. Most of these efforts have focused on the environmental effects of more than a century of silver, lead, and zinc mining and oreprocessing activities in the South Fork Coeur d'Alene River valley in northern Idaho. Several studies also have assessed the water quality and potential for eutrophication of Coeur d'Alene and Long Lakes and the Coeur d'Alene, St. Joe, and Spokane Rivers. Because past investigations often were limited in scope and employed different approaches and methods, an integrated understanding of hydrologic, water-quality, and aquatic biological conditions still is lacking for the basin as a whole. Substantial resources are being spent for water-quality and naturalresource management, and for mitigating the adverse environmental effects of past mining activities in the basin. A water-quality monitoring network, integrated with the decision-making processes associated with these efforts, could be of considerable value. The purpose of such a monitoring network is to produce high-quality information on which to base sound water-quality and natural-resource management decisions and to assess the effectiveness of those decisions. A streamflow- and water-quality monitoring infrastructure already exists in the Spokane River Basin. This infrastructure consists of 20 lake-stage and streamflow-gaging stations, representing specific drainages or subdrainages and, in many cases, specific stream reaches or subreaches. These gaging stations are operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), several of them in cooperation with State and Federal agencies and a private utility company. Extensive streamflow data are available, some dating from the late 1800s. Water-quality data are also available from recent USGS cooperative studies in the Coeur d'Alene Lake watershed. A nutrient load/lake response (eutrophication) model has been developed for Coeur d'Alene Lake. Hydraulic models for estimating streamflow through the low-gradient reaches of the Coeur d'Alene and St. Joe Rivers have been developed. Trace-element concentrations and distributions in sediments in the lower South Fork and main-stem Coeur d'Alene River flood plain and the bed of Coeur d'Alene Lake have been assessed. Trace-element transport models have been developed for the lower Coeur d'Alene River system; estimates of annual load are available from the early 1990's to the present (1998). The USGS is monitoring traceelement concentrations and transport at seven gaging stations in the lower Coeur d'Alene River system and upper Spokane River, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fish and macroinvertebrate community assessment and tissue contaminant analyses at four Coeur d'Alene and St. Joe River gaging stations will begin in 1998, either as part of the Idaho Surface- Water Quality Ambient Monitoring Network operated by USGS in cooperation with the Idaho Division of Environmental Quality, or for the Northern Rockies Intermontane Basins (NROK) study of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Several gaging stations in the Spokane River Basin are being considered for routine sampling sites for the NROK NAWQA study. Several other sites also will be sampled for contaminants in bed sediment and fish tissue for the NROK study. Combined with appropriate sampling and data interpretation strategies, the existing USGS gaging-station network and data base could provide integrated water-quality information needed for sound environmental and resource-management decisions throughout the Spokane River Basin.

Idaho;Washington

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report

Interim report on the scientific investigations in the Animas River watershed, Colorado to facilitate remediation decisions by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service, March 29, 2000 meeting, Denver, Colo.

INTRODUCTION The joint U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Department of Agriculture Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative (AMLI) was developed as a collaborative effort between the Federal land management agencies (FLMA, that is the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 1996. The stated goal of the AML Initiative was to develop a strategy for gathering and communicating the scientific information needed to develop effective and cost-efficient remediation of abandoned mines within the framework of a watershed. Four primary objectives of the AMLI are to: 1. Provide the scientific information needed (in the short-term) by the FLMAs to make decisions related to the design and implementation of cleanup actions, 2. Develop a multi-disciplined, multi-division approach that integrates geologic, hydrologic, geochemical and ecological information into a knowledge base for sound decision making, 3. Transfer technologies developed within the scientific programs of the USGS to the field and demonstrate their suitability to solve real, practical problems, and 4. Establish working relationships among involved members of land management and regulatory agencies within the framework of a watershed approach to the cleanup of abandoned mines. Long-term process-based research, including development of analytical tools, is recognized as being critical to the long-term success in remediating watersheds impacted by historical mining activities (AML 5-year plan, http://amli.usgs.gov/amli). In a meeting of Federal agencies (U.S. Bureau of Land Management [BLM], U.S. Bureau of Reclamation [BOR], U.S. National Park Service [NPS], U.S. Forest Service [USFS], the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [F&WS]), and State agencies (Colorado Division of Public Health and Environment, Colorado Division of Mines and Geology), several watersheds were examined within the state whose water quality was presumed to be impacted by historical mining activities. The Animas River watershed (fig. 1) was selected by the State and Federal agencies as one of two watersheds in the U.S. to be studied in detail by the USGS in the AML Initiative. Beginning in October 1997, each of the four Divisions of the USGS (Water Resources, Geologic, Biological Resources, and National Mapping) initiated a collaborative integrated science study of the watershed. Funds were provided from USGS base funding to each of the four Divisions in response to the priorities set by Congressional action and within the flexibility provided by the budgetary framework funding individual research programs. The AML Initiative provides for a five-year focused scientific effort in the two watersheds with final synthesis of the scientific results from each to be published in 2001. Publications are released on the AML web site on a regular basis (http://amli.usgs.gov/amli). On March 29, 2000, the USGS hosted a meeting for the BLM and USFS to discuss remediation options that were under consideration for the summer of 2000. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the scientific rational provided by the USGS to meet objective one above, and to summarize our preliminary interpretations of our data. Additional information from sites on private lands have been collected by the State of Colorado, EPA, and the ARSG. Unfortunately, these data have not been fully supplied to the USGS so our conclusions are based only upon our data. These interpretations provide science-based constraints on possible remediation options to be considered by the FLMA, the State, and local property owners in the Animas River watershed. The report is presented in outline format to facilitate discussion of remediation options at the March 29, 2000 meeting. Not all historical mining sites within the watershed are on public lands. This should not be construed to be a final report of the USGS

Denver

A brief introduction to integrated pest management for aquatic systems

Aquatic invasive plants and animals are increasingly becoming a problem, causing severe economic and ecological damage to critical freshwater systems. The best strategy for controlling an invasive pest employs an integrated pest management (IPM) approach using a combination of biological, physical, chemical, and social/cultural control methods. Here, we examine the history and development of IPM and provide a discussion of the components of an IPM program involving development, evaluation, and management. Control approaches will be reviewed and the application of this technique to aquatic systems will be discussed. A discussion of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission's (GLFC) Integrated Management of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus Control Program will be provided to illustrate the application of IPM to an aquatic system.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Assessment of biological conditions at selected stream sites in Johnson County, Kansas, and Cass and Jackson Counties, Missouri, 2003 and 2004

Macroinvertebrate samples were collected at 15 stream sites representing 11 different watersheds in Johnson County, Kansas, in 2003 and 2004 to assess biological conditions in streams and relations to environmental variables. Published data from an additional seven stream sites, one in Johnson County, Kansas, and six others in adjacent Cass and Jackson Counties in Missouri also were evaluated. Multimetric scores, which integrated a combination of measures that describe various aspects of biological community abundance and diversity, were used to evaluate and compare the biological health of streams. In addition, for 15 of 16 Johnson County stream sites, environmental data (streamflow, precipitation, and land use) and water- and sediment-quality data (primarily nutrients, indicator bacteria, and organic wastewater compounds) were used in statistical analyses to evaluate relations between macroinvertebrate metrics and variables that may affect them. The information is useful for defining current conditions, evaluating conditions relative to State aquatic-life support and total maximum daily load requirements, evaluating effects of urbanization, developing effective water-quality management plans, and documenting changes in biological condition and water quality. Biological conditions in selected Johnson County streams generally reflected a gradient in the degree of human disturbances upstream from the sites, including percentage of urban and agricultural land use as well as the presence, absence, and proximity of wastewater treatment discharges. In this report, the term gradient is used to describe a continuum in the conditions (biological, environmental, or land use) observed at the study sites. Upstream Blue River sites, downstream from primarily agricultural land use, consistently scored among the sites least impacted by human disturbance, and in some metrics these sites scored higher than the State reference site (Captain Creek). The term impact, as used in this report, refers to a negative biological response at a site associated with one or more human-induced sources of disturbance or stress. However, no sites, including the Captain Creek reference site, met Kansas Department of Health and Environment criteria for full support of aquatic life during the 2 years of sample collection. Upstream sites on Kill and Cedar Creeks also consistently scored among the least impacted. Sites less than 3 miles downstream from municipal wastewater treatment facility discharges (two Indian Creek sites) and sites with no wastewater discharge but with substantial impervious surface area within their respective watersheds (Tomahawk, Turkey, and Brush Creeks) consistently scored among the sites most impacted by human disturbance.

Scientific Investigations Report

The plant phenology monitoring design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.

Ecosphere

Diet analysis using generalized linear models derived from foraging processes using R package mvtweedie

Diet analysis integrates a wide variety of visual, chemical, and biological identification of prey. Samples are often treated as compositional data, where each prey is analyzed as a continuous percentage of the total. However, analyzing compositional data results in analytical challenges, for example, highly parameterized models or prior transformation of data. Here, we present a novel approximation involving a Tweedie generalized linear model (GLM). We first review how this approximation emerges from considering predator foraging as a thinned and marked point process (with marks representing prey species and individual prey size). This derivation can motivate future theoretical and applied developments. We then provide a practical tutorial for the Tweedie GLM using new package mvtweedie that extends capabilities of widely used packages in R ( mgcv and ggplot2 ) by transforming output to calculate prey compositions. We demonstrate this approach and software using two examples. Tufted Puffins ( Fratercula cirrhata ) provisioning their chicks on a colony in the northern Gulf of Alaska show decadal prey switching among sand lance and prowfish (1980–2000) and then Pacific herring and capelin (2000–2020), while wolves ( Canis lupus ligoni ) in southeast Alaska forage on mountain goats and marmots in northern uplands and marine mammals in seaward island coastlines.

Ecology

Introduction: Exotic annual Bromus in the western USA

The spread and impacts of exotic species are unambiguous, global threats to many ecosystems. A prominent example is the suite of annual grasses in the Bromus genus ( Bromus hereafter) that originate from Europe and Eurasia but have invaded or are invading large areas of the Western USA. This book brings a diverse, multidisciplinary group of authors together to synthesize current knowledge, research needs, and management implications for Bromus . Exotic plant invasions are multifaceted problems, and understanding and managing them requires the biological, ecological, sociological, and economic perspectives that are integrated in this book. Knowing how well information from one geographic or environmental setting can transfer to another is a key need for broadly distributed Bromus species especially given ongoing climate change. Thus, the chapters in the book compare and contrast invasibility of different ecoregions and invasiveness of different Bromus species. A universal theme is managing for ecosystems that are resilient to disturbance and resistant to invasion which will be essential for adaptation to the human-caused problem of Bromus in the Western USA.

Book chapter

Fish assemblage responses to water withdrawals and water supply reservoirs in Piedmont streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.

Georgiq

Wildlife, urban inputs, and landscape configuration are responsible for degraded swimming water quality at an embayed beach

Jeorse Park Beach, on southern Lake Michigan, experiences frequent closures due to high Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) levels since regular monitoring was implemented in 2005. During the summer of 2010, contaminant source tracking techniques, such as the conventional microbial and physical surveys and hydrodynamic models, were used to determine the reasons for poor water quality at Jeorse Park. Fecal indicator bacteria ( E. coli , enterococci) were high throughout the season, with densities ranging from 12&ndash;2419 (culturable E. coli ) and 1&ndash;2550 and < 1&ndash;5831 (culturable and qPCR enterococci, respectively). Genetic markers for human ( Bacteroides HF183) and gull ( Catellicoccus marimammalium ) fecal contamination were found in 15% and 37% of the samples indicating multiple sources contributing to poor water quality. Nesting colonies of double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) have steadily increased since 2005, coinciding with high E. coli levels. A hydrodynamic model indicated that limited circulation allows bacteria entering the embayed area to be retained in nearshore areas; and bacterial resuspension from sand and stranded beach wrack during storm events compounds the problem. The integration of hydrodynamics, expanded use of chemical and biological markers, as well as more complex statistical multivariate techniques can improve microbial source tracking, informing management actions to improve recreational water quality. Alterations to embayed structures to improve circulation and reduce nuisance algae as well as growing native plants to retain sand to improve beach morphometry are among some of the restoration strategies under consideration in ongoing multi-agency collaborations.

Indiana