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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Implications of model selection: A comparison of publicly available, conterminous US-extent hydrologic component estimates

Spatiotemporally continuous estimates of the hydrologic cycle are often generated through hydrologic modeling, reanalysis, or remote sensing (RS) methods and are commonly applied as a supplement to, or a substitute for, in situ measurements when observational data are sparse or unavailable. This study compares estimates of precipitation ( P ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), runoff ( R ), snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture (SM) from 87 unique data sets generated by 47 hydrologic models, reanalysis data sets, and remote sensing products across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Uncertainty between hydrologic component estimates was shown to be high in the western CONUS, with median uncertainty (measured as the coefficient of variation) ranging from 11 % to 21 % for P , 14 % to 26 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 76 % to 84 % for SWE, and 36 % to 96 % for SM. Uncertainty between estimates was lower in the eastern CONUS, with medians ranging from 5 % to 14 % for P, 13 % to 22 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 53 % to 63 % for SWE, and 42 % to 83 % for SM. Interannual trends in estimates from 1982 to 2010 show common disagreement in R, SWE, and SM. Correlating fluxes and stores against remote-sensing-derived products show poor overall correlation in the western CONUS for ET and SM estimates. Study results show that disagreement between estimates can be substantial, sometimes exceeding the magnitude of the measurements themselves. The authors conclude that multimodel ensembles are not only useful but are in fact a necessity for accurately representing uncertainty in research results. Spatial biases of model disagreement values in the western United States show that targeted research efforts in arid and semiarid water-limited regions are warranted, with the greatest emphasis on storage and runoff components, to better describe complexities of the terrestrial hydrologic system and reconcile model disagreement.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2015

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km 2 ). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2020

Comment on 'Kidron (2018): Biocrust research: A critical view on eight common hydrological‐related paradigms and dubious theses. Ecohydrology, e2061'

Kidron (2018) uses a straw man argument in an attempt to debunk eight putative hydrological‐related paradigms he believes to be “common among hydrologists, ecologists, or microbiologists that investigate biocrusts.” These paradigms relate to the roles of physical crusts and vascular plants in biocrust development, the major drivers (climate, porosity, hydrophobicity, and exopolysaccharides) of hydrology (infiltration and runoff), and the effect of mosses on hydrology and therefore vascular plants. We see two major problems with his arguments. First, they assume that the paradigms in question are generally accepted by biocrust researchers. Second, they are based on Kidron's (2018) world view of biocrusts, which has largely been informed by his own studies from a single, distinctly unique area of sand dunes at the Nizzana Research Site in the Negev Desert, Israel. This narrow focus and the selective use of published material disqualify his arguments. Our collective experience, based on more than 250 person years of biocrust research, and more than 700 scientific publications on biocrusts from all continents including Antarctica, indicates that, far from the straw man arguments proposed by Kidron (2018), there is no evidence to support the existence of a unifying theory that captures the global effects of biocrusts on hydrology. Our collective works demonstrate that, contrary to claims by Kidron (2018), the hydrological effects of biocrusts are strongly nuanced, varying with, but not limited to, differences in ecological context, landscape position, site condition, crust type and composition, climatic zone, soil texture and porosity, surface morphology, and spatial scale (reviewed in Weber, Büdel, & Belnap, 2016). Below, we critically analyse each of Kidron's (2018) paradigms, providing rigorous empirical evidence to show that none represent commonly held views among the biocrust research community.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2015

Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models

Many tropical islands have limited water resources with historically increasing demand, all potentially affected by a changing climate. The effects of climate change on island hydrology are difficult to model due to steep local precipitation gradients and sparse data. This work uses 10 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios to evaluate the uncertainty propagated from GCMs in projecting the effects of climate change on water resources in a tropical island system. The assessment is conducted using a previously configured hydrologic model, the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) for Puerto Rico. Projected climate data and their modelled hydrologic variables versus historical measurements and their modelled hydrologic variables are found to have empirical distribution functions that are statistically different with less than 1 year of daily data aggregation. Thus, only annual averages of the projected hydrologic variables are employed as completely bias‐corrected model outputs. The magnitude of the projected total flow decreases in the four regions covering Puerto Rico, but with a large range of uncertainty depending on the makeup of the GCM ensemble. The multi‐model mean projected total flow decreases by 49–88% of historical amounts from the 1960s to the 2090s for the high emissions scenarios and by 39–79% for the low emissions scenarios. Subsurface flow contributions decreased the least and groundwater flow contributions decreased the most across the island. At locations critical to water supply for human use, projected streamflow is shown to decrease substantially below projected withdrawals by 2099.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2012

The influence of regional hydrology on nesting behavior and nest fate of the American alligator

Hydrologic conditions are critical to the nesting behavior and reproductive success of crocodilians. In South Florida, USA, growing human settlement has led to extensive surface water management and modification of historical water flows in the wetlands, which have affected regional nesting of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Although both natural and anthropogenic factors are considered to determine hydrologic conditions, the aspects of hydrological patterns that affect alligator nest effort, flooding (partial and complete), and failure (no hatchling) are unclear. We deconstructed annual hydrological patterns using harmonic models that estimated hydrological matrices including mean, amplitude, timing of peak, and periodicity of surface water depth and discharge and examined their effects on alligator nesting using survey data from Shark Slough, Everglades National Park, from 1985 to 2005. Nest effort increased in years with higher mean and lesser periodicity of water depth. A greater proportion of nests were flooded and failed when peak discharge occurred earlier in the year. Also, nest flooding rates were greater in years with greater periodicity of water depth, and nest failure rate was greater when mean discharge was higher. This study guides future water management decisions to mitigate negative impacts on reproduction of alligators and provides wildlife managers with a tool for assessing and modifying annual water management plans to conserve crocodilians and other wetland species.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Hydrologic connectivity determines dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry in northern high-latitude lakes

Northern high‐latitude lakes are undergoing climate‐induced changes including shifts in their hydrologic connectivity with terrestrial ecosystems. How this will impact dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry remains uncertain. We examined the drivers of DOM composition for lakes in the Yukon Flats Basin in Alaska, an arid region of low relief that is characteristic of over one‐quarter of circumpolar lake area. Utilizing the vascular plant biomarker lignin, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and ultrahigh‐resolution mass spectrometry, we interpreted DOM compositional changes using lake‐water stable isotope (δ 18 O‐H 2 O) composition as a proxy for lake hydrologic connectivity with the landscape. We observed a relative decrease in CDOM in more hydrologically isolated lakes (enriched δ 18 O‐H 2 O) without a corresponding decrease in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. Although DOC and CDOM were weakly correlated, a significant positive relationship between lignin and CDOM ( r 2 = 0.67) demonstrates that optical parameters are useful for estimating lignin concentration and thus vascular plant contribution to lake DOM. Indicators of allochthonous DOM, including lignin carbon normalized yields, CDOM aromaticity proxies, and relative abundances of polyphenolic and condensed aromatic compound classes, were negatively correlated with δ 18 O‐H 2 O ( r 2 > 0.45), suggesting there is little allochthonous DOM supplied to many of these hydrologically isolated lakes. We conclude that decreased lake hydrologic connectivity, driven by ongoing climate change (i.e., decreased precipitation, warming temperatures), will reduce allochthonous DOM contributions and shift lakes toward lower CDOM systems with ecosystem‐scale ramifications for heat transfer, photochemical reactions, productivity, and ultimately their biogeochemical function.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2013

Hydrologic connectivity of floodplains, northern Missouri: implications for management and restoration of floodplain forest communities in disturbed landscapes

Hydrologic connectivity between the channel and floodplain is thought to be a dominant factor determining floodplain processes and characteristics of floodplain forests. We explored the role of hydrologic connectivity in explaining floodplain forest community composition along streams in northern Missouri, USA. Hydrologic analyses at 20 streamgages (207–5827 km 2 area) document that magnitudes of 2-year return floods increase systematically with increasing drainage area whereas the average annual number and durations of floodplain-connecting events decrease. Flow durations above the active-channel shelf vary little with increasing drainage area, indicating that the active-channel shelf is in quasi-equilibrium with prevailing conditions. The downstream decrease in connectivity is associated with downstream increase in channel incision. These relations at streamflow gaging stations are consistent with regional channel disturbance patterns: channel incision increases downstream, whereas upstream reaches have either not incised or adjusted to incision by forming new equilibrium floodplains. These results provide a framework to explain landscape-scale variations in composition of floodplain forest communities in northern Missouri. Faust ( 2006 ) had tentatively explained increases of flood-dependent tree species, and decreases of species diversity, with a downstream increase in flood magnitude and duration. Because frequency and duration of floodplain-connecting events do not increase downstream, we hypothesize instead that increases in relative abundance of flood-dependent trees at larger drainage area result from increasing size of disturbance patches. Bank-overtopping floods at larger drainage area create large, open, depositional landforms that promoted the regeneration of shade-intolerant species. Higher tree species diversity in floodplains with small drainage areas is associated with non-incised floodplains that are frequently connected to their channels and therefore subject to greater effective hydrologic variability compared with downstream floodplains. Understanding the landscape-scale geomorphic and hydrologic controls on floodplain connectivity provides a basis for more effective management and restoration of floodplain forest communities.

Missouri↗
USGS2016

Biological soil crusts: An organizing principle in dryland ecosystems (aka: the role of biocrusts in arid land hydrology)

Biocrusts exert a strong influence on hydrological processes in drylands by modifying numerous soil properties that affect water retention and movement in soils. Yet, their role in these processes is not clearly understood due to the large number of factors that act simultaneously and can mask the biocrust effect. The influence of biocrusts on soil hydrology depends on biocrust intrinsic characteristics such as cover, composition, and external morphology, which differ greatly among climate regimes, but also on external factors as soil type, topography and vegetation distribution patterns, as well as interactions among these factors. This chapter reviews the most recent literature published on the role of biocrusts in infiltration and runoff, soil moisture, evaporation and non-rainfall water inputs (fog, dew, water absorption), in an attempt to elucidate the key factors that explain how biocrusts affect land hydrology. In addition to the crust type and site characteristics, recent studies point to the crucial importance of the type of rainfall and the spatial scale at which biocrust effects are analyzed to understand their role in hydrological processes. Future studies need to consider the temporal and spatial scale investigated to obtain more accurate generalizations on the role of biocrusts in land hydrology.

Book chapter↗
USGS2004

Delineation and evaluation of hydrologic-landscape regions in the United States using geographic information system tools and multivariate statistical analyses.

Hydrologic-landscape regions in the United States were delineated by using geographic information system (GIS) tools combined with principal components and cluster analyses. The GIS and statistical analyses were applied to land-surface form, geologic texture (permeability of the soil and bedrock), and climate variables that describe the physical and climatic setting of 43,931 small (approximately 200 km 2 ) watersheds in the United States. (The term “watersheds” is defined in this paper as the drainage areas of tributary streams, headwater streams, and stream segments lying between two confluences.) The analyses grouped the watersheds into 20 noncontiguous regions based on similarities in land-surface form, geologic texture, and climate characteristics. The percentage of explained variance (R-squared value) in an analysis of variance was used to compare the hydrologic-landscape regions to 19 square geometric regions and the 21 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency level-II ecoregions. Hydrologic-landscape regions generally were better than ecoregions at delineating regions of distinct land-surface form and geologic texture. Hydrologic-landscape regions and ecoregions were equally effective at defining regions in terms of climate, land cover, and water-quality characteristics. For about half of the landscape, climate, and water-quality characteristics, the R-squared values of square geometric regions were as high as hydrologic-landscape regions or ecoregions.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Greater Yellowstone Area↗
USGS2014

Estimates of natural salinity and hydrology in a subtropical estuarine ecosystem: implications for Greater Everglades restoration

Disruption of the natural patterns of freshwater flow into estuarine ecosystems occurred in many locations around the world beginning in the twentieth century. To effectively restore these systems, establishing a pre-alteration perspective allows managers to develop science-based restoration targets for salinity and hydrology. This paper describes a process to develop targets based on natural hydrologic functions by coupling paleoecology and regression models using the subtropical Greater Everglades Ecosystem as an example. Paleoecological investigations characterize the circa 1900 CE (pre-alteration) salinity regime in Florida Bay based on molluscan remains in sediment cores. These paleosalinity estimates are converted into time series estimates of paleo-based salinity, stage, and flow using numeric and statistical models. Model outputs are weighted using the mean square error statistic and then combined. Results indicate that, in the absence of water management, salinity in Florida Bay would be about 3 to 9 salinity units lower than current conditions. To achieve this target, upstream freshwater levels must be about 0.25 m higher than indicated by recent observed data, with increased flow inputs to Florida Bay between 2.1 and 3.7 times existing flows. This flow deficit is comparable to the average volume of water currently being diverted from the Everglades ecosystem by water management. The products (paleo-based Florida Bay salinity and upstream hydrology) provide estimates of pre-alteration hydrology and salinity that represent target restoration conditions. This method can be applied to any estuarine ecosystem with available paleoecologic data and empirical and/or model-based hydrologic data.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Hydrology and biogeochemistry linkages

This chapter provides an overview of the linkages between hydrology and biogeochemistry in terrestrial and aquatic systems. Selected topics include hydrological pathways on drainage basin slopes, mountain environments, within-river (or in-stream) processes, wetlands, groundwater (and groundwater–surface water interactions), and lakes. Beginning from catchment headwaters, This chapter introduces mechanisms delivering water from hillslopes to stream channels, highlighting the relative importance of biogeochemical processes along hydrological pathways. It considers processes affecting components of the water budget, including snow formation and ablation processes, and interactions with the soil below snow cover and during snowmelt. It presents the concept of nutrient spiraling and the importance of temperature and stream flow variability on biogeochemistry, as well as groundwater–surface water interactions through hyporheic and riparian zones. This chapter contrasts important processes in hydrologically isolated wetlands with those temporally connected to streams and rivers. It addresses stream and groundwater inputs, stratification, and within-lake processes, interactions with sediments, and a discussion about limiting nutrients. This chapter presents information about typical reactions controlled by hydrological pathways, lithology (mineralogy) and biota, the importance of residence time in biogeochemical evolution, and linkages between groundwater Acidic atmospheric deposition

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Effects of future climate change, CO 2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 , and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO 2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO 2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO 2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO 2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO 2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2004

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2006

Mountain hydrology of the western United States

Climate change and climate variability, population growth, and land use change drive the need for new hydrologic knowledge and understanding. In the mountainous West and other similar areas worldwide, three pressing hydrologic needs stand out: first, to better understand the processes controlling the partitioning of energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems; second, to better understand feedbacks between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes; and, third, to enhance our physical and empirical understanding with integrated measurement strategies and information systems. We envision an integrative approach to monitoring, modeling, and sensing the mountain environment that will improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic fluxes and processes. Here extensive monitoring of energy fluxes and hydrologic states are needed to supplement existing measurements, which are largely limited to streamflow and snow water equivalent. Ground‐based observing systems must be explicitly designed for integration with remotely sensed data and for scaling up to basins and whole ranges.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2021

Numerical analysis of the effect of subgrid variability in a physically based hydrological model on runoff, soil moisture, and slope stability

In coarse resolution hydrological modeling we face the problem of subgrid variability, the effects of which are difficult to express and are often hidden in the parameterization and calibration. We present a numerical experiment with the physically based hydrological model ParFlow‐CLM with which we quantify the effect of subgrid heterogeneities in headwater catchments within the cell size typically used for regional hydrological applications. We simulate homogeneous domains and domains with subgrid heterogeneities in topography or soil thickness for two climates and soil types. The presence of side slope is the main error source, leading to large underestimation of runoff, and marginally also of evapotranspiration. The spatial distribution of soil saturation in the presence of subgrid variability in topography also leads to underestimation of landslide risk. Soil thickness is the second influential subgrid property, affecting soil moisture distribution and surface runoff formation. Results are consistent for the climates and the soil types considered. The topographic wetness index approach is tested as a way to downscale soil moisture simulations within the domain. Although this method is successful in reproducing some spatial variability and patterns, it fails when the coarse grid mean soil saturation is inaccurate or subgrid topography does not represent subsurface flow paths accurately. We conclude that ignoring subgrid variability in topography and soil thickness in coarse‐scale hydrological models may lead locally to underestimation of runoff and slope instability. Users of such models should be aware of these biases and consider ways to include subgrid effects in coarse‐scale hydrological predictions.

Water Resources Research↗