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Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Ground Water

Proceedings of a workshop on digital mapping techniques; methods for geologic map data capture, management, and publication - June 2 - 5, 1997, Lawrence, Kansas

Introduction: From June 2-5, 1997, selected technical representatives of the USGS and State geological surveys participated in the 'AASG/USGS Digital Mapping Techniques' workshop in Lawrence, Kansas. The workshop was initiated by the AASG/USGS Data Capture Working Group, and was hosted by the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS). With a focus on methods for data capture and digital map production, the goal was to help move the state surveys and the USGS toward development of more cost-effective, flexible, and useful systems for digital mapping and GIS analysis.

Open-File Report

Groundwater availability of the Central Valley Aquifer, California

California's Central Valley covers about 20,000 square miles and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the Central Valley with an estimated value of $17 billion per year. This irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage. Approximately one-sixth of the Nation's irrigated land is in the Central Valley, and about one-fifth of the Nation's groundwater demand is supplied from its aquifers. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California's expanding urban population. Since 1980, the population of the Central Valley has nearly doubled from 2 million to 3.8 million people. The Census Bureau projects that the Central Valley's population will increase to 6 million people by 2020. This surge in population has increased the competition for water resources within the Central Valley and statewide, which likely will be exacerbated by anticipated reductions in deliveries of Colorado River water to southern California. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conservation of agricultural land, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS Groundwater Resources Program made a detailed assessment of groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer system, that includes: (1) the present status of groundwater resources; (2) how these resources have changed over time; and (3) tools to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, such as the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CV-RASA) project and several other groundwater studies in the Valley completed by Federal, State and local agencies at differing scales. The principal product of this new assessment is a tool referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) that accounts for integrated, variable water supply and demand, and simulates surface-water and groundwater-flow across the entire Central Valley system. The development of the CVHM comprised four major elements: (1) a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to compile, analyze and visualize data; (2) a texture model to characterize the aquifer system;(3) estimates of water-budget components by numerically modeling the hydrologic system with the Farm Process (FMP); and (4) simulations to assess and quantify hydrologic conditions.

Professional Paper

A comparison of hydrocarbon-related landscape disturbance patterns along the New York-Pennsylvania border, 2004–2013

Executive Summary The New York-Pennsylvania area has a long history of hydrocarbon extraction, and the addition of shale gas extraction methods contributes to landscape disturbance borne by previously developed oil and non-shale gas resources. The main unconventional extraction method used to extract shale gas from the Marcellus Shale located in New York and Pennsylvania is hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” although other conventional methods are used extensively. All forms of hydrocarbon extraction disturb the surrounding landscape to some extent, primarily in the form of land clearance and degradation, road construction, and pipeline development, although the effects of these disturbances are not fully understood. In this study, landscape-change metrics and indicators are used to analyze change in a 10-county region along the New York-Pennsylvania border—the New York counties of Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome, and the Pennsylvania counties of McKean, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, and Susquehanna. This 10-county region was selected due to the differences in policies between the States of New York and Pennsylvania. While fracking occurred extensively in Pennsylvania over the past 10 years or more, the State of New York issued a temporary moratorium against hydraulic fracturing in 2010—citing repercussions that might affect air quality, water quality, and public health—and officially banned hydraulic fracturing in June 2015. The quantification of landscape disturbance due to hydrocarbon extraction activities is presented in this report as land-use and land-cover (LULC) change between 2004 and 2013 and defined using specific disturbance categories (including well sites, roads, and pipelines) to compare the disturbances and changes, by county, on both sides of the New York-Pennsylvania border. The quantification was accomplished by gathering the signatures of disturbance from high-resolution aerial images, comparing the derived totals of disturbance, and then computing landscape metrics in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The collected data represent a summation of landscape disturbance from oil and gas development, as some of the data represented were established decades earlier. The Analytical Tools Interface for Landscape Assessments (ATtILA) software was used to calculate land-cover area and landscape metrics for each shale gas, non-shale gas, oil, and other infrastructure types associated with hydrocarbons across each county and both five-county regions in the study area. The three primary metrics used to describe changes in forest structure were (1)forest area, (2) interior forest area, and (3) forest edge area. The changes in metrics were subsequently evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Overall, the disturbed-area footprint in the Pennsylvania region is considerably larger than the disturbed-area footprint in the New York region (13,687.9 hectares [ha] in Pennsylvania; 3,840.5 ha in New York). Disturbance per site is similar, with 1.2 disturbed ha per site in New York and 1.6 disturbed ha per site in Pennsylvania. In the New York-Pennsylvania 10-county region, hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance strongly correlate with a reduction in the percentage of forest for the entire region. This observation also appears to be true in the New York five-county region for forest area. This form of disturbance in the New York five-county region shows significantly correlated changes in forest metrics (–0.4 percent total forest area), particularly in the percentage of interior forest (–1.2 percent total area) and forest edge (+0.7 percent total area). On the other hand, gas and hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance (1.0 percent total area) in the Pennsylvania five-county region strongly correlates with a total decline in forest area and agricultural land area (–0.8 percent combined total area) but not with either land-cover class separately.

New York, Pennsylvania

Mitigating the effects of landscape development on streams in urbanizing watersheds

This collaborative study examined urbanization and impacts on area streams while using the best available sediment and erosion control (S&EC) practices in developing watersheds in Maryland, United States. During conversion of the agricultural and forested watersheds to urban land use, land surface topography was graded and vegetation was removed creating a high potential for sediment generation and release during storm events. The currently best available S&EC facilities were used during the development process to mitigate storm runoff water quality, quantity, and timing before entering area streams. Detailed Geographic Information System (GIS) maps were created to visualize changing land use and S&EC practices, five temporal collections of LiDAR (light detection and ranging) imagery were used to map the changing landscape topography, and streamflow, physical geomorphology, and habitat data were used to assess the ability of the S&EC facilities to protect receiving streams during development. Despite the use of the best available S&EC facilities, receiving streams experienced altered flow, geomorphology, and decreased biotic community health. These impacts on small streams during watershed development affect sediment and nutrient loads to larger downstream aquatic ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay.

Maryl

Current status, issues and applications of GIS to inland fisheries

This chapter is concerned with GIS applications made to inland fisheries. These include fisheries in freshwater rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although these GIS applications have increased rapidly since the late 1980s, this area of fish production receives less attention than either aquaculture or marine fisheries. This is probably because inland fisheries are often practised in remote areas, at a semi-subsistence level, or are recreational in many developed countries, and data on most aspects of the fisheries are scattered, fragmented and frequently unsuited for use as inputs to GIS. The GIS-based inland fisheries work has concentrated on mapping the distribution and abundance of fish species and mapping and modelling habitats in rivers, reservoirs and lakes, and relating the two. Much of the material included in the chapter on inland fisheries comes from either Fisher and Rahel (2004) or from the series of symposium proceedings published by the Fishery-Aquatic GIS Research Group (Nishida and Caton, 2010).

Book chapter

Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES): using GIS to include social values information in ecosystem services assessments

Ecosystem services can be defined in various ways; simply put, they are the benefits provided by nature, which contribute to human well-being. These benefits can range from tangible products such as food and fresh water to cultural services such as recreation and esthetics. As the use of these benefits continues to increase, additional pressures are placed on the natural ecosystems providing them. This makes it all the more important when assessing possible tradeoffs among ecosystem services to consider the human attitudes and preferences that express underlying social values associated with their benefits. While some of these values can be accounted for through economic markets, other values can be more difficult to quantify, and attaching dollar amounts to them may not be very useful in all cases. Regardless of the processes or units used for quantifying such values, the ability to map them across the landscape and relate them to the ecosystem services to which they are attributed is necessary for effective assessments. To address some of the needs associated with quantifying and mapping social values for inclusion in ecosystem services assessments, scientists at the Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC), in collaboration with Colorado State University, have developed a public domain tool, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES). SolVES is a geographic information system (GIS) application designed to use data from public attitude and preference surveys to assess, map, and quantify social values for ecosystem services. SolVES calculates and maps a 10-point Value Index representing the relative perceived social values of ecosystem services such as recreation and biodiversity for various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. SolVES output can also be used to identify and model relationships between social values and physical characteristics of the underlying landscape. These relationships can then be used to generate predicted Value Index maps for areas where survey data are not available. RMGSC will continue to develop more robust versions of SolVES by pursuing opportunities to work with land and resource managers as well as other researchers to apply SolVES to specific ecosystem management problems.

Fact Sheet

Quantifying flow-dependent changes in subyearling fall chinook salmon rearing habitat using two-dimensional spatially explicit modeling

We used an analysis based on a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the amount of rearing habitat and stranding area for subyearling fall chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River at steady-state flows ranging from 1,416 to 11,328 m3/s. High-resolution river channel bathymetry was used in conjunction with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate water velocities, depths, and lateral slopes throughout our 33-km study area. To relate the probability of fish presence in nearshore habitats to measures of physical habitat, we developed a logistic regression model from point electrofishing data. We only considered variables that were compatible with a GIS and therefore excluded other variables known to be important to juvenile salmonids. Water velocity and lateral slope were the only two variables included in our final model. The amount of available rearing habitat generally decreased as flow increased, with the greatest decreases occurring between 1,416 and 4,814 m3/s. When river discharges were between 3,682 and 7,080 m3/s, flow fluctuations of 566 m3/s produced the smallest change in available rearing area (from -6.3% to +6.8% of the total). Stranding pool area was greatly reduced at steady-state flows exceeding 4,531 m3/s, but the highest net gain in stranding area was produced by 850 m3/s decreases in flow when river discharges were between 5,381 and 5,664 m3/s. Current measures to protect rearing fall chinook salmon include limiting flow fluctuations at Priest Rapids Dam to 850 m3/s when the dam is spilling water and when the weekly flows average less than 4,814 m3/s. We believe that limiting flow fluctuations at all discharges would further protect subyearling fall chinook salmon.

Washington

A digital photogrammetric method for measuring horizontal surficial movements on the slumgullion earthflow, Hinsdale county, Colorado

The traditional approach to making aerial photographic measurements uses analog or analytic photogrammetric equipment. We have developed a digital method for making measurements from aerial photographs which uses geographic information system (GIS) software, and primarily DOS-based personal computers. This method, which is based on the concept that a direct visual comparison can be made between images derived from two sets of aerial photographs taken at different times, was applied to the surface of the active portion of the Slumgullion earthflow in Colorado to determine horizontal displacement vectors from the movements of visually identifiable objects, such as trees and large rocks. Using this method, more of the slide surface can be mapped in a shorter period of time than using the standard photogrammetric approach. More than 800 horizontal displacement vectors were determined on the active earthflow surface using images produced by our digital photogrammetric technique and 1985 (1:12,000-scale) and 1990 (1:6,000-scale) aerial photographs. The resulting displacement field shows, with a 2-m measurement error (??? 10%), that the fastest moving portion of the landslide underwent 15-29 m of horizontal displacement between 1985 and 1990. Copyright ?? 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Computers & Geosciences

Techniques for assessing sand and gravel resources in glaciofluvial deposits — An example using the surficial geologic map of the Loudon quadrangle, Merrimack and Belknap Counties, New Hampshire

A method for estimating the sand and gravel resources in glaciofluvial systems has been developed based on surficial mapping techniques that use the morphosequence concept and geographic information systems (GIS). Two different strategies are used to estimate gravel resources. One strategy estimates the sand and gravel resources contained in esker deposits; the other, which is more dependent on GIS, estimates resources in non-esker deposits. An attempt has been made to determine which deposits are sterilized; that is, those beneath the water table, adjacent to streams or roads, or encroached on by urbanization. Preliminary estimates using these methods indicate that about 158,000,000 m3 (206,000,000 yd3) of sand and gravel are present in the Soucook River valley part of the Loudon, N.H., 7.5-minute quadrangle. About 64,500,000 m3 (84,400,000 yd3) of these materials are in deposits above the water table. About 26 percent of the sand and gravel resources above the water table are unlikely to be mined because they have been sterilized. Of the remaining resources, 479,000 m3 (627,000 yd3) of gravel and 1,120,000 m3 (1,460,000 yd3) of sand are in esker deposits, and 9,400,000 m3 (12,300,000 yd3) of gravel and 38,300,000 m3 (50,100,000 yd3) of sand are in stratified non-esker deposits. With the addition of new well data, newer and more accurate estimates are possible.

New Hampshire

Regional Regression Equations to Estimate Flow-Duration Statistics at Ungaged Stream Sites in Connecticut

Multiple linear regression equations for determining flow-duration statistics were developed to estimate select flow exceedances ranging from 25- to 99-percent for six 'bioperiods'-Salmonid Spawning (November), Overwinter (December-February), Habitat Forming (March-April), Clupeid Spawning (May), Resident Spawning (June), and Rearing and Growth (July-October)-in Connecticut. Regression equations also were developed to estimate the 25- and 99-percent flow exceedances without reference to a bioperiod. In total, 32 equations were developed. The predictive equations were based on regression analyses relating flow statistics from streamgages to GIS-determined basin and climatic characteristics for the drainage areas of those streamgages. Thirty-nine streamgages (and an additional 6 short-term streamgages and 28 partial-record sites for the non-bioperiod 99-percent exceedance) in Connecticut and adjacent areas of neighboring States were used in the regression analysis. Weighted least squares regression analysis was used to determine the predictive equations; weights were assigned based on record length. The basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of area with coarse-grained stratified deposits, percentage of area with wetlands, mean monthly precipitation (November), mean seasonal precipitation (December, January, and February), and mean basin elevation-are used as explanatory variables in the equations. Standard errors of estimate of the 32 equations ranged from 10.7 to 156 percent with medians of 19.2 and 55.4 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Regression equations to estimate high and median flows (25- to 75-percent exceedances) are better predictors (smaller variability of the residual values around the regression line) than the equations to estimate low flows (less than 75-percent exceedance). The Habitat Forming (March-April) bioperiod had the smallest standard errors of estimate, ranging from 10.7 to 20.9 percent. In contrast, the Rearing and Growth (July-October) bioperiod had the largest standard errors, ranging from 30.9 to 156 percent. The adjusted coefficient of determination of the equations ranged from 77.5 to 99.4 percent with medians of 98.5 and 90.6 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Descriptive information on the streamgages used in the regression, measured basin and climatic characteristics, and estimated flow-duration statistics are provided in this report. Flow-duration statistics and the 32 regression equations for estimating flow-duration statistics in Connecticut are stored on the U.S. Geological Survey World Wide Web application ?StreamStats? (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/index.html). The regression equations developed in this report can be used to produce unbiased estimates of select flow exceedances statewide.

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimating water temperatures in small streams in western Oregon using neural network models

Artificial neural network models were developed to estimate water temperatures in small streams using data collected at 148 sites throughout western Oregon from June to September 1999. The sites were located on 1st-, 2nd-, or 3rd-order streams having undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Data collected at each site for model development included continuous hourly water temperature and description of riparian habitat. Additional data pertaining to the landscape characteristics of the basins upstream of the sites were assembled using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Hourly meteorological time series data collected at 25 locations within the study region also were assembled. Clustering analysis was used to partition 142 sites into 3 groups. Separate models were developed for each group. The riparian habitat, basin characteristic, and meteorological time series data were independent variables and water temperature time series were dependent variables to the models, respectively. Approximately one-third of the data vectors were used for model training, and the remaining two-thirds were used for model testing. Critical input variables included riparian shade, site elevation, and percentage of forested area of the basin. Coefficient of determination and root mean square error for the models ranged from 0.88 to 0.99 and 0.05 to 0.59 oC, respectively. The models also were tested and validated using temperature time series, habitat, and basin landscape data from 6 sites that were separate from the 142 sites that were used to develop the models. The models are capable of estimating water temperatures at locations along 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order streams in western Oregon. The model user must assemble riparian habitat and basin landscape characteristics data for a site of interest. These data, in addition to meteorological data, are model inputs. Output from the models include simulated hourly water temperatures for the June to September period. Adjustments can be made to the shade input data to simulate the effects of minimum or maximum shade on water temperatures.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Geospatial data to support analysis of water-quality conditions in basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States

The Southwest Principal Aquifers study area consists of most of California and Nevada and parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado; it is about 409,000 square miles. The Basin-fill aquifers extend through about 201,000 square miles of the study area and are the primary source of water for cities and agricultural communities in basins in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Southwest). The demand on limited ground-water resources in areas in the southwestern United States has increased significantly. This increased demand underscores the importance of understanding factors that affect the water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the region, which are being studied through the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. As a part of this study, spatial datasets of natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect ground-water quality of the basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States were developed. These data include physical characteristics of the region, such as geology, elevation, and precipitation, as well as anthropogenic factors, including population, land use, and water use. Spatial statistics for the alluvial basins in the Southwest have been calculated using the datasets. This information provides a foundation for the development of conceptual and statistical models that relate natural and anthropogenic factors to ground-water quality across the Southwest. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to determine and illustrate the spatial distribution of these basin-fill variables across the region. One hundred-meter resolution raster data layers that represent the spatial characteristics of the basins' boundaries, drainage areas, population densities, land use, and water use were developed for the entire Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Cumberland County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Cumberland County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Cumberland County, Maine is 21 years. Most of these studies were in the early to mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-25 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Cumberland County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Cumberland County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how effective FIS data can be used in new project, and identify other data needed to

Open-File Report

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Kennebec County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Kennebec County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Kennebec County, Maine is 16 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Kennebec County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Kennebec County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how e

Open-File Report

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Somerset County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Somerset County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Somerset County, Maine is 18.1 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Somerset County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Somerset County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and ho

Open-File Report

Use of a ground-water flow model with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability, Clark County, Washington

A ground-water flow model was used in conjunction with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability in Clark County, Washington. Using the particle-tracking program, particles were placed in every cell of the flow model (about 60,000 particles) and tracked backwards in time and space upgradient along flow paths to their recharge points. A new computer program was developed that interfaces the results from a particle-tracking program with a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS was used to display and analyze the particle-tracking results. Ground-water vulnerability was evaluated by selecting parts of the ground-water flow system and combining the results with ancillary information stored in the GIS to determine recharge areas, characteristics of recharge areas, downgradient impact of land use at recharge areas, and age of ground water. Maps of the recharge areas for each hydrogeologic unit illustrate the presence of local, intermediate, or regional ground-water flow systems and emphasize the three-dimensional nature of the ground-water flow system in Clark County. Maps of the recharge points for each hydrogeologic unit were overlaid with maps depicting aquifer sensitivity as determined by DRASTIC (a measure of the pollution potential of ground water, based on the intrinsic characteristics of the near-surface unsaturated and saturated zones) and recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems. A large number of recharge areas were identified, particularly in southern Clark County, that have a high aquifer sensitivity, coincide with areas of recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems, or both. Using the GIS, the characteristics of the recharge areas were related to the downgradient parts of the ground-water system that will eventually receive flow that has recharged through these areas. The aquifer sensitivity, as indicated by DRASTIC, of the recharge areas for downgradient parts of the flow system was mapped for each hydrogeologic unit. A number of public-supply wells in Clark County may be receiving a component of water that recharged in areas that are more conducive to contaminant entry. The aquifer sensitivity maps illustrate a critical deficiency in the DRASTIC methodology: the failure to account for the dynamics of the ground-water flow system. DRASTIC indices calculated for a particular location thus do not necessarily reflect the conditions of the ground-water resources at the recharge areas to that particular location. Each hydrogeologic unit was also mapped to highlight those areas that will eventually receive flow from recharge areas with on-site waste-disposal systems. Most public-supply wells in southern Clark County may eventually receive a component of water that was recharged from on-site waste-disposal systems.Traveltimes from particle tracking were used to estimate the minimum and maximum age of ground water within each model-grid cell. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-age dating of ground water from 51 wells was used to calibrate effective porosity values used for the particle- tracking program by comparison of ground-water ages determined through the use of the CFC-age dating with those calculated by the particle- tracking program. There was a 76 percent agreement in predicting the presence of modern water in the 51 wells as determined using CFCs and calculated by the particle-tracking program. Maps showing the age of ground water were prepared for all the hydrogeologic units. Areas with the youngest ground-water ages are expected to be at greatest risk for contamination from anthropogenic sources. Comparison of these maps with maps of public- supply wells in Clark County indicates that most of these wells may withdraw ground water that is, in part, less than 100 years old, and in many instances less than 10 years old. Results of the analysis showed that a single particle-tracking analysis simulating advective transport can be used to evaluate ground-water vulnerability for any part of a ground-wate

Open-File Report

Selected Streamflow Statistics and Regression Equations for Predicting Statistics at Stream Locations in Monroe County, Pennsylvania

A suite of 28 streamflow statistics, ranging from extreme low to high flows, was computed for 17 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and predicted for 20 partial-record stations in Monroe County and contiguous counties in north-eastern Pennsylvania. The predicted statistics for the partial-record stations were based on regression analyses relating inter-mittent flow measurements made at the partial-record stations indexed to concurrent daily mean flows at continuous-record stations during base-flow conditions. The same statistics also were predicted for 134 ungaged stream locations in Monroe County on the basis of regression analyses relating the statistics to GIS-determined basin characteristics for the continuous-record station drainage areas. The prediction methodology for developing the regression equations used to estimate statistics was developed for estimating low-flow frequencies. This study and a companion study found that the methodology also has application potential for predicting intermediate- and high-flow statistics. The statistics included mean monthly flows, mean annual flow, 7-day low flows for three recurrence intervals, nine flow durations, mean annual base flow, and annual mean base flows for two recurrence intervals. Low standard errors of prediction and high coefficients of determination (R2) indicated good results in using the regression equations to predict the statistics. Regression equations for the larger flow statistics tended to have lower standard errors of prediction and higher coefficients of determination (R2) than equations for the smaller flow statistics. The report discusses the methodologies used in determining the statistics and the limitations of the statistics and the equations used to predict the statistics. Caution is indicated in using the predicted statistics for small drainage area situations. Study results constitute input needed by water-resource managers in Monroe County for planning purposes and evaluation of water-resources availability.

Scientific Investigations Report