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USGS2004

Less waste corn, more land in soybeans, and the switch to genetically modified crops: Trends with important implications for wildlife management

American agriculture has provided abundant high-energy foods for migratory and resident wildlife populations since the onset of modern wildlife management. Responding to anecdotal evidence that corn residues are declining in cropland, we remeasured waste corn post-harvest in the Central Platte River Valley (CPRV) of Nebraska during 1997 and 1998 to compare with 1978. Post-harvest waste corn averaged 2.6% and 1.8% of yield in 1997 and 1998, respectively. After accounting for a 20% increase in yield, waste corn in 1997 and 1998 was reduced 24% and 47% from 1978. We also evaluated use of soybeans by spring-staging sandhill cranes ( Crus canadensis ) and waterfowl during spring 1998 and 1999. Despite being widely available in the CPRV, soybeans did not occur in esophageal contents of sandhill cranes ( n= 174), northern pintails ( Anas acuta , n= 139), greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons , n= 198), or lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens , n= 208) collected with food in their esophagi. Lack of soybean consumption by cranes and waterfowl in Nebraska in early spring builds upon previously published findings, suggesting that soybeans are poorly suited for meeting nutrient needs of wildlife requiring a high-energy diet. Given evidence that high-energy food and numerous populations of seed-eating species found on farmland are declining, and the enormous potential risk to game and nongame wildlife populations if high-energy foods were to become scarce, a comprehensive research effort to study the problem appears warranted. Provisions under the Conservation Security subtitle of The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 offer a potential mechanism to encourage producers to manage cropland in ways that would replace part of the high-energy foods that have been lost to increasing efficiency of production agriculture.

Nebraska↗

USGS2005

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2017

Brackish groundwater and its potential to augment freshwater supplies

Secure, reliable, and sustainable water resources are fundamental to the Nation’s food production, energy independence, and ecological and human health and well-being. Indications are that at any given time, water resources are under stress in selected parts of the country. The large-scale development of groundwater resources has caused declines in the amount of groundwater in storage and declines in discharges to surface water bodies (Reilly and others, 2008). Water supply in some regions, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, is not adequate to meet demand, and severe drought intensifies the stresses affecting water resources (National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, 2015). If these drought conditions continue, water shortages could adversely affect the human condition and threaten environmental flows necessary to maintain ecosystem health. In support of the national census of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed the national brackish groundwater assessment to provide updated information about brackish groundwater as a potential resource to augment or replace freshwater supplies (Stanton and others, 2017). Study objectives were to consolidate available data into a comprehensive database of brackish groundwater resources in the United States and to produce a summary report highlighting the distribution, physical and chemical characteristics, and use of brackish groundwater resources. This assessment was authorized by section 9507 of the Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (42 U.S.C. 10367), passed by Congress in March 2009. Before this assessment, the last national brackish groundwater compilation was completed in the mid-1960s (Feth, 1965). Since that time, substantially more hydrologic and geochemical data have been collected and now can be used to improve the understanding of the Nation’s brackish groundwater resources.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2014

Influence of whitebark pine decline on fall habitat use and movements of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

When abundant, seeds of the high-elevation whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis ) are an important fall food for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Rates of bear mortality and bear/human conflicts have been inversely associated with WBP productivity. Recently, mountain pine beetles ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) have killed many cone-producing WBP trees. We used fall (15 August–30 September) Global Positioning System locations from 89 bear years to investigate temporal changes in habitat use and movements during 2000–2011. We calculated Manly–Chesson (MC) indices for selectivity of WBP habitat and secure habitat (≥500 m from roads and human developments), determined dates of WBP use, and documented net daily movement distances and activity radii. To evaluate temporal trends, we used regression, model selection, and candidate model sets consisting of annual WBP production, sex, and year. One-third of sampled grizzly bears had fall ranges with little or no mapped WBP habitat. Most other bears (72%) had a MC index above 0.5, indicating selection for WBP habitats. From 2000 to 2011, mean MC index decreased and median date of WBP use shifted about 1 week later. We detected no trends in movement indices over time. Outside of national parks, there was no correlation between the MC indices for WBP habitat and secure habitat, and most bears (78%) selected for secure habitat. Nonetheless, mean MC index for secure habitat decreased over the study period during years of good WBP productivity. The wide diet breadth and foraging plasticity of grizzly bears likely allowed them to adjust to declining WBP. Bears reduced use of WBP stands without increasing movement rates, suggesting they obtained alternative fall foods within their local surroundings. However, the reduction in mortality risk historically associated with use of secure, high-elevation WBP habitat may be diminishing for bears residing in multiple-use areas.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Response of Yellowstone grizzly bears to changes in food resources: A synthesis. Final report to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee and Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee

The Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) was listed as a threatened species in 1975 (Federal Register 40 FR:31734-31736). Since listing, recovery efforts have focused on increasing population size, improving habitat security, managing bear mortalities, and reducing bear-human conflicts. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee (IGBC; partnership of federal and state agencies responsible for grizzly bear recovery in the lower 48 states) and its Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommitte (YES; federal, state, county, and tribal partners charged with recovery of grizzly bears in the Greater Yelowston Ecosystem [GYE]) tasked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team to provide information and further research relevant to three concerns arising from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals November 2011 decision: 1) the ability of grizzly bears as omnivores to find alternative foods to whitebark pine seeds; 2) literature to support their conclusions; and 3) the non-intuitive biological reality that impacts can occur to individuals without causing the overall population to decline. Specifically, the IGBC and YES requested a comprehensive synthesis of the current state of knowledge regarding whitebark pinbe decline and individual and population-level responses of grizzly bears to changing food resources in the GYE. This research was particularly relevant to grizzly bear conservation given changes in the population trajectory observed during the last decade.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS1990

Human impacts on bear habitat use

: Human effects on bear habitat use are mediated through food biomass changes, bear tolerance of humans and their impacts, and human tolerance of bears. Large-scale changes in bear food biomass have been caused by conversion of wildlands and waterways to intensive human use, and by the introduction of exotic pathogens. Bears consume virtually all human foods that have been established in former wildlands, but bear use has been limited by access. Air pollution has also affected bear food biomass on a small scale and is likely to have major future impacts on bear habitat through climatic warming. Major changes in disturbance cycles and landscape mosaics wrought by humans have further altered temporal and spatial pulses of bear food production. These changes have brought short-term benefits in places, but have also added long-term stresses to most bear populations. Although bears tend to avoid humans, they will also use exotic and native foods in close proximity to humans. Subadult males and adult females are more often impelled to forage closer to humans because of their energetic predicament and because more secure sites are often preempted by adult males. Although male bears are typically responsible for most livestock predation, adult females and subadult males are more likely to be habituated to humans because they tend to forage closer to humans. Elimination of human-habituated bears predictably reduces effective carrying capacity and is more likely to be a factor in preserving bear populations where humans are present in moderate-to-high densities. If humans desire to preserve viable bear populations, they will either have to accept increased risk of injury associated with preserving habituated animals, or continue to crop habituated bears while at the same time preserving large tracts of wildlands free from significant human intrusion.

Bears: Their Biology and Management↗

USGS2012

Mapping grasslands suitable for cellulosic biofuels in the Greater Platte River Basin, United States

Biofuels are an important component in the development of alternative energy supplies, which is needed to achieve national energy independence and security in the United States. The most common biofuel product today in the United States is corn-based ethanol; however, its development is limited because of concerns about global food shortages, livestock and food price increases, and water demand increases for irrigation and ethanol production. Corn-based ethanol also potentially contributes to soil erosion, and pesticides and fertilizers affect water quality. Studies indicate that future potential production of cellulosic ethanol is likely to be much greater than grain- or starch-based ethanol. As a result, economics and policy incentives could, in the near future, encourage expansion of cellulosic biofuels production from grasses, forest woody biomass, and agricultural and municipal wastes. If production expands, cultivation of cellulosic feedstock crops, such as switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L. ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus species ), is expected to increase dramatically. The main objective of this study is to identify grasslands in the Great Plains that are potentially suitable for cellulosic feedstock (such as switchgrass) production. Producing ethanol from noncropland holdings (such as grassland) will minimize the effects of biofuel developments on global food supplies. Our pilot study area is the Greater Platte River Basin, which includes a broad range of plant productivity from semiarid grasslands in the west to the fertile corn belt in the east. The Greater Platte River Basin was the subject of related U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated research projects.

Colorado;Nebraska;South Dakota;Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Sea-ice conditions predict polar bear land use around military installations in Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently opening the Arctic to natural resource extraction and a broader scope of national security responsibilities. Mitigating the risk of human–bear conflicts is an emerging challenge as many polar bears spend longer ice-free summers on land where they have limited access to food and come into more frequent contact with people. We investigated a suite of physical and ecological variables that influence the timing of polar bear arrival on, and departure from, land using remote-sensing data on sea-ice extent and satellite telemetry data from 72 radio-collared adult female polar bears from 1986 to 2015. Analyses encompassed the coastline of the Southern Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, USA, and focused on zones within a 35-km radius (mean daily travel distance of a polar bear) of 5 military installations. Sea ice in the Southern Beaufort Sea retreated approximately 1 month earlier in spring, and reformed 1 month later in fall, in 2015 compared to 1979. In generalized linear mixed models, the most important predictors of polar bear arrival and departure were the dates of sea-ice breakup and formation, respectively, in localized marine areas surrounding each military zone. Region-wide sea-ice conditions also influenced land use, although to a lesser extent. We found that polar bears spent longer periods on land in the military zones compared to outside the zones, which may reflect increased land use in areas with human activity and potential attractants (noting that some military installations were in proximity to other human settlements). Our results demonstrate that the timing of polar bear land use in northern Alaska is influenced by sea-ice conditions on multiple spatial scales. This information can be used to predict and manage the presence of polar bears around military installations and other places of interest.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Fish diversity reduction and assemblage structure homogenization in lakes: A case study on unselective fishing in China

Unselective fishing involves activities that target the entire assemblage rather than specific fish species, size classes, or trophic levels. This common fishing approach has been in practice for decades in inland waters in China but its implications for biodiversity remain unclear. We addressed this issue by studying fish assemblages in freshwater lakes (five fishing lakes, one reference lake, and a total of 51 sampling sites) between pre- and post-fishing time-periods in Eastern China during 2017–2019. The effects of lake, fishing period, and their interactions on fish abundance, biomass, and diversity indices were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted to test for differences in fish assemblages among lakes and between fishing periods. After the implementation of fishing activities, significant reductions in fish species richness, abundance, biomass, and all three life-history strategies (opportunistic, equilibrium, and periodic) were observed in fishing lakes, whereas opposite trends were observed in the reference lake. Compositional similarity of fish assemblages among fishing lakes increased over the three-year monitoring period. Our results suggest that unselective fishing reduces fish diversity and homogenizes fish assemblage structure in lakes. These findings have important implications for protecting both biodiversity and fisheries in inland waters in China and are applicable to other countries or regions that rely on fish as a major food source.

Water Biology and Security↗

USGS2025

Reframing fish passage prioritization for human nutrition outcomes

Water control infrastructure forms barriers that fragment river habitats, reducing aquatic biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides. Irrigation infrastructure, for example, although implemented to support food production, highlights problematic trade-offs against wild food systems like inland fisheries which are a critical food resource for tens of millions of people, particularly in tropical countries. To reduce fragmentation at a broad range of barriers, fish passage technology is sometimes implemented to support migrating fish, aided by frameworks designed to prioritize barriers for remediation. This study critically evaluated 93 fish passage barrier prioritization frameworks globally to explore how they could strategically guide fish passage investments in tropical contexts and identify criteria relevant to delivering on nutrition security outcomes. Results showed prioritization frameworks were ill-equipped to support the broader human development goals that may drive fish passage investments in tropical countries, such as supporting human nutrition under United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: Zero Hunger. Tropical contexts were underrepresented despite substantial recent fish passage investment, whereas temperate and conservation focused frameworks, particularly from North America, dominated. These findings prompt reflection on the inherent biases in fish passage barrier prioritization frameworks and criteria. Improving understanding of and collaboration with local partners to integrate SDG 2 into future prioritization frameworks could improve fish passage infrastructure and help support better nutrition and food production for communities.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2012

Food availability and offspring sex in a monogamous seabird: insights from an experimental approach

Sex allocation theory predicts that parents should favor offspring of the sex that provides the greatest fitness return. Despite growing evidence suggesting that vertebrates are able to overcome the constraint of chromosomal sex determination, the general pattern remains equivocal, indicating a need for experimental investigations. We used an experimental feeding design to study sex allocation during 3 years in black-legged kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ). Intense male–male competition for securing a breeding site is common in this species in which males are heavier and larger than females. Hence, we hypothesized that parents producing fledglings in better than average condition, as supplementarily fed pairs do, would increase their fitness return by producing sons. Conversely, producing daughters would be a better tactic for Unfed parents. Hence, we predicted that Fed parents produce more sons than Unfed parents. This prediction is particularly expected if sexual dimorphism arises as early as during chick rearing, suggesting strong selective pressures for optimal male development. Our results showed that 1) males were heavier and larger than females prior to fledging and that 2) Fed parents produced relatively more male hatchlings than Unfed parents. We interpret this result in terms of a Trivers–Willard-type process. Furthermore, our data revealed that Unfed parents significantly overproduced female hatchlings, whereas offspring sex ratio was balanced among Fed parents. Because the 3 reproductive seasons we considered were particularly poor food years, Unfed parents may have overproduced daughters to avoid the apparent higher reproductive costs of raising sons.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS1988

The past, present, and future of manatees in the southeastern United States: realities, misunderstandings and enigmas

A review of the historical and recent (1970s-1980s) literature on the distribution, abundance, and mortality of West Indian manatees ( Trichechus manatus ) in the southern United States is presented. Recent unpublished data on mortality, Florida boat registrations, size of certain manatee wintering populations, and records outside of Florida are also given. Manatees never regularly occurred outside of Florida, except during the summer in Georgia. Current distribution is also limited largely to Florida and coastal Georgia in summer, with extralimital records in other southeastern states. In winter the range contracts and is centered around warm water sources in Florida. The historical record on past abundance is inconclusive, but does not provide any compelling evidence to claim that manatees ever nearly became extinct. There are no satisfactory means to estimate manatee population size. However, within Florida, manatees have become more widespread and possibly more abundant during the past 30 years due to protection, greater availability of warm water in winter, and in some areas, increased exotic vegetation. Deliberate killing for food was long a historical pressure on manatee populations in Florida, but is not almost non-existent. Nevertheless, recent increasing trends in accidental mortality caused by boats, coupled with an understanding of manatee population dynamics, suggests that the future for manatees is not secure. Ample justification exists for continued manatee conservation efforts.

Book↗

USGS2016

Potential effects of drought on carrying capacity for wintering waterfowl in the Central Valley of California

We used the bioenergetics model TRUEMET to evaluate potential effects of California's recent drought on food supplies for waterfowl wintering in the Central Valley under a range of habitat and waterfowl population scenarios. In nondrought years in the current Central Valley landscape, food supplies are projected to be adequate for waterfowl from fall through early spring (except late March) even if waterfowl populations reach North American Waterfowl Management Plan goals. However, in all drought scenarios that we evaluated, food supplies were projected to be exhausted for ducks by mid- to late winter and by late winter or early spring for geese. For ducks, these results were strongly related to projected declines in winter-flooded rice fields that provide 45% of all the food energy available to ducks in the Central Valley in nondrought water years. Delayed flooding of some managed wetlands may help alleviate food shortages by providing wetland food resources better timed with waterfowl migration and abundance patterns in the Central Valley, as well as reducing the amount of water needed to manage these habitats. However, future research is needed to evaluate the impacts of delayed flooding on waterfowl hunting, and whether California's existing water delivery system would make delayed flooding feasible. Securing adequate water supplies for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent birds is among the greatest challenges facing resource managers in coming years, especially in the increasingly arid western United States.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS1981

Waterfowl and their wintering grounds in Mexico, 1937-64

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been interested in migratory birds, especially waterfowl, in Mexico for many years, An early period of cooperation in waterfowl administration was culminated in 1937 with the final ratification of the Convention Between the United States and the United Mexican States for the Protection of Migratory Birds and Game Mammals, usually referred to as the Migratory Bird Treat. Management of waterfowl on this continent is primarily carried out by hunting regulations. Current information on the status of each species must be obtained each year to serve as a basis for any needed modifications in the regulations. In the United States and Canada, wildlife biologists of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service annually make the surveys to obtain this basic information. But the Government of Mexico has made no comparable surveys. Mexicans are not interested in hunting waterfowl to the extent that citizens of the United States and Canada are. As a consequence, Mexico's Department of Game emphasizes activities other than waterfowl management. Waterfowl, especially ducks, winter in or migrate through Mexico in large numbers, so it is obvious that and continental surveys of the winter population should include Mexico. Some general investigations of waterfowl distribution there were made in 1926 and earlier by E. A. Goldman. He was familiar with much of Mexico because he and E. W. Nelson studied mammals and biota there for many years. In the 1930's, because of the greater emphasis on waterfowl conservation and management, more detailed surveys were made of the continental breeding and wintering populations. One of these activities was designated as the midwinter, or January, inventory. In the early 1940's the senior author, who had been the Central Flyaway Biologist since 1937, recommended that the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico be included in the coverage of the midwinter waterfowl inventory. This was arranged in 1947, and the first aerial coverage, which only included coastal localities, was made in January-February of that year. The information obtained confirmed the value and advisability of including the Mexican wintering grounds in the annual survey; beginning in 1951 the wintering grounds in the Mexican highlands also were included. The surveys of Mexico were continued, except in 1957, through 1965; after 1965 they were greatly reduced. Ground reconnaissance and surveys had begun in Mexico with the preliminary work of Goldman in 1926, but quantitative studies were not started until 1937. The ground surveys continued at intervals in various parts of the Republic until 1960. Ground surveys are invaluable for such purposes as securing ecological information, specimens of birds and plants, and historical data about the areas from local residents, but the only satisfactory method of obtaining accurate quantitative information on waterfowl populations and their distribution is by airplane. Consequently, the major emphasis since 1947 has been on the annual aerial surveys. Ground studies were made much less frequently and were carried out mainly to obtain correlative information on the waterfowl foods available, the ecology of habitats, and for liaison with wildlife officials and biologists in Mexico. An important reason for the surveys of the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico was to determine their adequacy for the population of birds using them, and their potential to accommodate additional waterfowl if the wintering grounds in the United States became inadequate and larger flights entered Mexico. Other advantages included providing accurate information to hunters and other interested persons in the United States regarding the waterfowl shooting in Mexico, and determining the current status of these birds and their habitats in that country. Some of these findings were previously summarized by us (Saunders and Saunders 1949; Saunders 1964).

Resource Publication↗

USGS2018

Continuing progress toward a national assessment of water availability and use

Executive Summary The Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111—11) was passed into law on March 30, 2009. Subtitle F, also known as the SECURE Water Act, calls for the establishment of a “national water availability and use assessment program” within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS issued the first report on the program in 2013. Program progress over the period 2013–17 is reported herein to fulfill the requirement to inform Congress on implementation of the national water availability and use assessment program, also referred to as the USGS National Water Census (the Water Census). Much work has been accomplished during 2013–17 on producing water budgets for the nation, a goal USGS outlined in its first report on program progress to Congress. The USGS has completed three geographic focus area studies and has begun three others. Work has advanced on nationwide efforts in streamflow analysis, groundwater assessment and research, evapotranspiration studies, water use, environmental water science, and drought science. The USGS works with Federal and non-Federal agencies, universities, and other organizations to ensure that the information can be aggregated with other types of water-availability and socioeconomic information, such as data on food and energy production. The USGS has also made great strides in measures for delivering data and information on the Water Census to stakeholders and the public. Much work remains to be accomplished for the Nation to have a comprehensive, ongoing Water Census. In this report, the USGS lays out activities to be accomplished in the next 5 years (2017–22), based upon current funding levels. These include selecting new focus area studies, conducting hydrologic modeling to complete water budgets for the conterminous United States, expanding groundwater modeling efforts, mapping a national classification system for environmental water science, and developing an inventory of interbasin water transfers. All of these steps are necessary in order for the Water Census to achieve the goals outlined by Congress in the SECURE Water Act.

Circular↗

USGS2007

Habitat effects on condition of doe mule deer in arid mixed woodland-grassland

Productivity of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus Raf.) populations is closely linked to individual nutritional condition. We modeled body fat of individual does as a function of vegetation cover, composition, and water characteristics of their annual, summer, and winter home ranges in north-central New Mexico. We also modeled home range size as a function of the same characteristics. Levels of body fat were most closely and negatively related to the amount of pinyon-juniper in an individual deer's annual home range (F1,21 = 7.6; P = 0.012; r2 = 0.26). Pinyon-juniper types provided little (combined ground cover of preferred forbs and shrubs = 5.7%) mule deer forage but were included in home ranges in excess of their availability on the landscape, likely because of security cover attributes. Proportion of grasslands in home ranges was most strongly related to both annual (F1,23 = 4.9; P = 0.037; r2 = 0.18) and summer (F2,25 = 5.7; P = 0.009; r2 = 0.31) home range sizes, and home ranges increased as the grassland component increased, indicating that this habitat type was providing little value to mule deer. Grassland (0.2% combined cover of preferred forb and shrub) and montane conifer (3.2% ground cover of preferred forb and shrub) habitat types similarly lacked preferred mule deer food, and grasslands also lacked cover. Most immediate gains in mule deer habitat in north-central New Mexico may be attained by management of pinyon-juniper communities to increase forage quantity and quality while maintaining cover attributes. Gains can also be realized in grasslands, but here management must establish both cover and forage.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2020

Shaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits

Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in stressed agricultural landscapes can recover biodiversity and create co-benefits during transitions to sustainability. We apply our approach in California's San Joaquin Valley where groundwater regulations are driving significant land use change. We link agricultural-economic and land use change models to generate plausible landscapes with different cropping patterns, including temporary fallowing and permanent retirement. We find that a large fraction of the reduced cultivation is met through temporary fallowing, but still estimate over 86,000 hectares of permanent retirement. We then apply systematic conservation planning to identify optimized restoration solutions that secure at least 10,000 hectares of high quality habitat for each of five representative endangered species, accounting for spatially varying opportunity costs specific to each plausible future landscape. The analyses identified consolidated areas common to all land use scenarios where restoration could be targeted to enhance habitat by utilizing land likely to be retired anyway, and by shifting some retirement from regions with low habitat value to regions with high habitat value. We also show potential co-benefits of retirement (derived from avoided nitrogen loadings and soil carbon sequestration), though these require careful consideration of additionality. Our approach provides a generalizable means to inform multi-benefit adaptation planning in response to agricultural stressors.

California↗

USGS2010

Hazards affecting grizzly bear survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded its range. Early efforts to model grizzly bear mortality were principally focused within the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone, which currently represents only about 61% of known bear distribution in the GYE. A more recent analysis that explored one spatial covariate that encompassed the entire GYE suggested that grizzly bear survival was highest in Yellowstone National Park, followed by areas in the grizzly bear Recovery Zone outside the park, and lowest outside the Recovery Zone. Although management differences within these areas partially explained differences in grizzly bear survival, these simple spatial covariates did not capture site-specific reasons why bears die at higher rates outside the Recovery Zone. Here, we model annual survival of grizzly bears in the GYE to 1) identify landscape features (i.e., foods, land management policies, or human disturbances factors) that best describe spatial heterogeneity among bear mortalities, 2) spatially depict the differences in grizzly bear survival across the GYE, and 3) demonstrate how our spatially explicit model of survival can be linked with demographic parameters to identify source and sink habitats. We used recent data from radiomarked bears to estimate survival (1983–2003) using the known-fate data type in Program MARK. Our top models suggested that survival of independent (age ≥2 yr) grizzly bears was best explained by the level of human development of the landscape within the home ranges of bears. Survival improved as secure habitat and elevation increased but declined as road density, number of homes, and site developments increased. Bears living in areas open to fall ungulate hunting suffered higher rates of mortality than bears living in areas closed to hunting. Our top model strongly supported previous research that identified roads and developed sites as hazards to grizzly bear survival. We also demonstrated that rural homes and ungulate hunting negatively affected survival, both new findings. We illustrate how our survival model, when linked with estimates of reproduction and survival of dependent young, can be used to identify demographically the source and sink habitats in the GYE. Finally, we discuss how this demographic model constitutes one component of a habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation. Such a framework can spatially depict the areas of risk in otherwise good habitat, providing a focus for resource management in the GYE.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗