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USGS2017

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery performance according to the literature

Introduction The need to increase the efficiency of oil recovery and environmental concerns are bringing to prominence the use of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a tertiary recovery agent. Assessment of the impact of flooding with CO 2 all eligible reservoirs in the United States not yet undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) requires making the best possible use of the experience gained in 40 years of applications. Review of the publicly available literature has located relevant CO 2 -EOR information for 53 units (fields, reservoirs, pilot areas) in the United States and 17 abroad. As the world simultaneously faces an increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere and a higher demand for fossil fuels, the CO 2 -EOR process continues to gain popularity for its efficiency as a tertiary recovery agent and for the potential for having some CO 2 trapped in the subsurface as an unintended consequence of the enhanced production (Advanced Resources International and Melzer Consulting, 2009). More extensive application of CO 2 -EOR worldwide, however, is not making it significantly easier to predict the exact outcome of the CO 2 flooding in new reservoirs. The standard approach to examine and manage risks is to analyze the intended target by conducting laboratory work, running simulation models, and, finally, gaining field experience with a pilot test. This approach, though, is not always possible. For example, assessment of the potential of CO 2 -EOR at the national level in a vast country such as the United States requires making forecasts based on information already available. Although many studies are proprietary, the published literature has provided reviews of CO 2 -EOR projects. Yet, there is always interest in updating reports and analyzing the information under new perspectives. Brock and Bryan (1989) described results obtained during the earlier days of CO 2 -EOR from 1972 to 1987. Most of the recovery predictions, however, were based on intended injections of 30 percent the size of the reservoir’s hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV), and the predictions in most cases badly missed the actual recoveries because of the embryonic state of tertiary recovery in general and CO 2 flooding in particular at the time. Brock and Bryan (1989), for example, reported for the Weber Sandstone in the Rangely oil field in Colorado, an expected recovery of 7.5 percent of the original oil in place (OOIP) after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 30 percent of the HCPV, but Clark (2012) reported that after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 46 percent of the HCPV, the actual recovery was 4.8 percent of the OOIP. Decades later, the numbers by Brock and Bryan (1989) continue to be cited as part of expanded reviews, such as the one by Kuuskraa and Koperna (2006). Other comprehensive reviews including recovery factors are those of Christensen and others (2001) and Lake and Walsh (2008). The Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) periodically reports on active CO 2 -EOR operations worldwide, but those releases do not include recovery factors. The monograph by Jarrell and others (2002) remains the most technically comprehensive publication on CO 2 flooding, but it does not cover recovery factors either. This chapter is a review of the literature found in a search for information about CO 2 -EOR. It has been prepared as part of a project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the incremental oil production that would be technically feasible by CO 2 flooding of all suitable oil reservoirs in the country not yet undergoing tertiary recovery.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

Elk-effects vegetation monitoring program for Tomales Point Elk Range, Point Reyes National Seashore, California

The monitoring program for elk effects on Tomales Point vegetation is designed to provide information on how tule elk grazing affects plant communities and rare species. The basic objective of the program is to show whether the elk are driving the vegetation into an unacceptable state by their grazing. The expectation is that as elk numbers increase, grazing pressure will increase too, resulting in unacceptable levels of any or all of the following: low vegetation ground cover, poor nutritional quality for the elk, undesirable increases in weedy species, unacceptable loss of native plant biodiversity, population declines in rare plants, population declines in plants used for food and nectar by the endangered silverspot butterfly, and increased erosion. The monitoring program has 3 basic components designed to provide complementary information on different aspects of the elk-vegetation system. Long-term plant community monitoring along permanent transects will show how plant species composition and cover are changing since cattle removal in 1979, and it will show whether any of he undesirable traits listed above are developing in the vegetation. However, monitoring these transects alone will not tell us what the effects of continued grazing by elk are apart from changes the vegetation would be undergoing anyway. In order to tease apart the elk effects from change that is happening because of cattle removal, elk exclosures are needed. By sampling inside and outside exclosures, we will be able to see how elk are modifying the rates and directions of change in the vegetation that would be happening in their absence. In a sense, the exclosures serve as a “check” on elk effects. They will allow us to interpret how much of the change is due to elk and how much can be attributed to other processes such as natural succession or weather patterns. This information will allow us to analyze whether changing elk management will have a desirable effect on the vegetation. Finally, periodic mapping and counting of plants in rare plant populations will show whether plant population ranges are expanding and populations are stable or growing. If not, then management actions can be taken to improve habitat conditions for the plants. A general summary of the rationale and sample design for each of the 3 components of the elk-effects monitoring program follows. Field sampling for the entire program should require about 15 weeks for a 2 to 3- person team, and data processing, analysis, and report writing should require about 9 weeks. Time and labor estimates for this program are given in Table A-1. In addition to elk-effects monitoring, Point Reyes staff periodically monitor fire transects and residual dry matter plots on Tomales Point. They are not included as part of the elk-effects monitoring program and they are described elsewhere. Protocols for fire and residual dry matter sampling are not included in the time estimate for the elk- effects monitoring program.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Final report: Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and Western Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis) surveys and habitat availability modeling on the Santa Clara River, California, 26 March 2020

Our project aimed to conduct population surveys for Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax trailii extimus; SWFL) and Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus; YBCU) in 2018 and 2019, apply existing habitat models to illustrate and predict past, current, and future habitat suitabilities for these two species, and update and standardize classification and mapping of riparian vegetation to reflect recent conditions along the lower 50 miles of the Santa Clara River. Models developed by Hatten and Paradzick (2003), Hatten, et al. (2010), Hatten (2016), and Johnson et al. (2016) were applied to the SCR to provide California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with useful tools for management of resources for SWFL and YBCU.

California↗

USGS2019

Intermountain west drought social science synthesis working group: Report to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. Building on the natural science understanding developed by the USGS’ various ecological drought projects as well as a range of other place-based social science case studies of drought and its impacts, this project explored human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. The Working Group brought together agency and university experts in the field of drought social science, including researchers affiliated with the North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (USGS), Western Water Assessment (a NOAA RISA program), the Northern Plains Climate Hub (USDA), and the USGS-supported SNAPP Ecological Drought Working Group. The group held three virtual meeting during Spring 2018 in preparation for an extended in-person workshop in June 2018 in Fort Collins, CO, followed by monthly calls to finalize products. The group’s objectives were to (1) integrate insights from existing social science studies of drought to identify commonalities and trends that generalize across cases while simultaneously accounting for the complexity experienced in particular places by individual decision makers, (2) develop a common lexicon and analytic framework for understanding drought across the Intermountain West from a social-ecological systems perspective, (3) identify emergent research themes, questions, and needs, (4) consider strategies for social scientists to contribute to drought management, (5) facilitate coordination among federal and university researchers for future collaborative activities, and (6) develop a typology of drought decision making that captured group insights. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2025

Second Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM 2.0) workshop: USGCRP federal agency perspectives

U.S. federal leadership, mobilizing close interagency coordination across sectors, is key to tackling compound climate and human impacts on our nation’s water resources. Recognizing this need, federal agencies and academic collaborators conducted a series of workshops to advance Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM). IHTM is focused on supporting a multiscale framework to accelerate research insights, better integrate operational and planning perspectives, and bridge national-to-regional capabilities to address major interdependent societal water challenges. This framework leverages the capabilities of different agencies and institutional partners across sectors to advance a shared vision for use-inspired modeling and open science. The IHTM conceptual framework has developed over several community workshops in recent years: ● In September 2019, a community coordinating group on IHTM hosted an interagency workshop (“IHTM 1.0”) with support from NSF, DOE, and USGS. The resulting report identified the need for agencies to invest resources in designing pilot use cases, setting the stage for an integrated national IHTM capability. ● In November 2020, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) held a virtual Coastal-IHTM (C-IHTM) workshop in collaboration with the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice, which engages researchers across universities and national labs. Building on IHTM 1.0, this workshop aimed to identify coastal modeling capabilities and appropriate coastal applications of the IHTM framework. The workshop report detailed needs for open science, geographical or topical use cases, integrated modeling frameworks, and linking communities of practice. ● From October 31 to November 2, 2023, USGCRP hosted a hybrid IHTM 2.0 community workshop that brought together 160 scientists and managers from nine federal departments/agencies (DHS-FEMA, DOC-NOAA, DoD-USACE, DOE, DOI [U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), USGS], EPA, NASA, NSF, USDA [ARS, FS, NRCS]) and 32 non-federal academic, non-profit, and private institutions and consortiums. The workshop was organized by a federal Interagency Steering Committee with representatives from DOE, USGS, NSF, NASA, and NOAA, as well as a Scientific Organizing Committee comprising experts from academia and additional federal agency technical experts. The IHTM 2.0 workshop focused on moving the IHTM 1.0 concepts to action by making advances in designing national and regional integrated modeling experiments in five geographic testbeds. These modeling testbeds seek to facilitate collaborative water resources research and assessment that responds to societal needs, extending from basic research to resource management operations, including the assessment of water quantity, quality, and use at national and regional scales. Ultimately, we envision that the IHTM testbeds will improve our ability to provide water resources assessment scenarios to decision-makers and the public. This document summarizes USGCRP and member agencies’ perspectives of the IHTM 2.0 workshop. Sections 2 and 3 build on the work of the IHTM 2.0 workshop Scientific Organizing Committee to outline the importance of IHTM, summarize the workshop, and propose near- and medium-term IHTM priorities. Section 4 presents select ongoing and potential interagency activities that could help realize the IHTM 2.0 vision and align with three of USGCRP’s strategic goals for this decade: Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, and Engaging the Nation. Finally, Section 5 summarizes this report and offers information about how to connect with USGCRP’s IHTM activities. USGCRP and its member agencies are well-positioned to coordinate federal efforts to enhance IHTM capabilities in the coming years.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Drought prediction and water availability: A report on the 2022 USGS-NIDIS National Listening Session Series

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) conducted a series of four Listening Sessions in 2022 – each with a different application or topical focus – to seek input on priorities and needs related to predicting water availability changes under drought conditions at national and regional scales. This input was gathered to help inform the USGS Drought Program, regional and national drought efforts at NIDIS, and other national drought efforts. The series started with a February 2022 kick-off that introduced the series of Listening Sessions being held from March through September 2022. This kickoff also provided an overview of the USGS Drought Program’s work to characterize hydrological (e.g., streamflow and groundwater) drought, drought variability, drivers, and trends over the past century. Participants in these Listening Sessions included diverse stakeholder representation and perspectives. The first of the four Listening Sessions focused on streamflow (March 3, 2022), and included a short introduction to the USGS national streamflow drought research, the properties of a national drought prediction system, as well as presentations by other agencies on different drought prediction and forecasting efforts. The second session focused on groundwater (May 5, 2022), and included presentations on groundwater drought, sustainable groundwater management, and improving our understanding of soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water drought. The third session focused on water use (July 14, 2022), and included a discussion of the different drought types, as well as an introduction to several key projects, including the USGS Upper Colorado River Basin Study, the Ogallala Data Directory project, and a multi-agency drought prediction partnership in Oklahoma. The fourth and final Listening Session focused on water availability prediction for ecosystems (September 8, 2022), and included presentations on the development of a national capacity for eco-hydrological and drought science, building climate resilience, and actionable ecodrought resources.

Report↗

USGS1986

Summary geochemical maps for samples of rock, stream sediment, and nonmagnetic heavy-mineral concentrate, Pyramid Roadless Area, El Dorado County, California

The Wilderness Act (Public Law 88-577, September 3, 1964) and related acts require the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines to survey certain areas on Federal lands to determine their mineral resource potential. Results must be made available to the public and be submitted to the President and the Congress. This report presents the results of a geochemical survey of the Pyramid Roadless Area (5203) in the Eldorado National Forest and Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit, El Dorado County, California. This roadless area was classified as a further planning area during the Second Roadless Area Review and Evaluation (RARE II) by the U.S. Forest Service, January 1979. The Pyramid Roadless Area lies near the crest of the Sierra Nevada about 75 miles east of Sacramento, California. the area, which is adjacent to and almost encircles the Desolation Wilderness, encompasses approximately 31,400 acres in Eldorado National Forest and the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit in El Dorado County, California. The area is dominated by deep rugged canyons that run eastward from the Sierra Nevada crest to Lake Tahoe basin and westward toward the Sacramento Valley. Elevations range from about 5,500 feet along Big Silver Creek on the west side of the study area to 8,895 feet at Echo Peak along the southeastern side of the roadless area. Geochemical sampling was conducted during 1982. This report summarizes the results of that investigation and provides details of the geochemical evaluation used in producing the final mineral resource assessment of the study area (Armstrong and others, 1983).

California↗

USGS2026

Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021

Longitudinal profiles of water surface and riverbed elevations capture key geomorphic characteristics that can be affected by water infrastructure and natural processes. Continuous water surface profiles of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a river influenced by two of the largest dams in the United States, have been measured infrequently. The water surface profile was first measured in 1923, 13 years before the completion of Hoover Dam, which impounded water into western Grand Canyon, and 40 years before the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, which affected streamflow and sediment supply for all of Grand Canyon. The water surface profile was next measured in 2000, 37 years after the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, although this profile did not include the segment affected by Hoover Dam. A continuous profile of riverbed elevations has never been published. Here, we present the first complete, coupled water surface and riverbed elevation profiles, collected in 2021 during a period of steady releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The profiles were constructed from positions and elevations measured by boat-based global navigation satellite systems and from bathymetry collected by multibeam sonar. Data collected by boat were supplemented by data from a photogrammetry-derived digital surface model that was created from concurrently collected aerial images. Independent measurements made by conventional total stations referenced to a common geodetic control network were used to evaluate accuracy of all measurements. The final water surface and riverbed elevation profiles improved the accuracy and precision reported for previous profiles. In this study, the mean absolute vertical accuracy of water surface elevations was 0.07 meter for 85 percent of river miles and 0.19 meter for 11 percent of river miles. For the remaining 4 percent of river miles, water surface elevations were interpolated between measured values. The profiles reported herein can be used for current assessment of Colorado River geomorphic conditions, quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.

Arizona↗

USGS1999

Stream channel cross sections for a reach of the Boise River in Ada County, Idaho

The Federal Emergency Management Agency produces maps of areas that are likely to be inundated during major floods, usually the 100-year, or 1-percent probability, flood. The maps, called Flood Insurance Rate Maps, are used to determine flood insurance rates for homes, businesses, or other structures located in flood-prone areas. State and local governments also use these maps for help with, among other things, development planning and disaster mitigation. During the period October 1997 through December 1998, the initial phase of a hydraulic analysis project of the Boise River from Barber Dam to the Ada/Canyon County boundary, the U.S. Geological Survey collected stream channel cross-section data at 238 locations along the river and documented 108 elevation reference marks established for horizontal and vertical control. In the final phase of the project, the Survey will use these data to determine water-surface elevations for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and to define floodway limits. The Federal Emergency Management Agency will use the results of this hydraulic analysis to update the 100- and 500-year flood boundaries and the floodway limits on their Flood Insurance Rate Maps.

Idaho↗

USGS2022

Real-time telemetry and multi-state modeling

This project will result in real-time data and other invasive carp movement information to inform realtime management decisions and refine the SEICarP model. FY 2022 funding will produce final transition probability estimates from the newly-developed Bayesian multi-state model, continue the maintenance of real-time telemetry to inform contingency actions, and produce a study plan to refine fishing mortality estimates using telemetry data.

Illinois↗

USGS2016

A manual to identify sources of fluvial sediment

Sediment is an important pollutant of concern that can degrade and alter aquatic habitat. A sediment budget is an accounting of the sources, storage, and export of sediment over a defined spatial and temporal scale. This manual focuses on field approaches to estimate a sediment budget. We also highlight the sediment fingerprinting approach to attribute sediment to different watershed sources. Determining the sources and sinks of sediment is important in developing strategies to reduce sediment loads to water bodies impaired by sediment. Therefore, this manual can be used when developing a sediment TMDL requiring identification of sediment sources. The manual takes the user through the seven necessary steps to construct a sediment budget: Decision-making for watershed scale and time period of interest Familiarization with the watershed by conducting a literature review, compiling background information and maps relevant to study questions, conducting a reconnaissance of the watershed Developing partnerships with landowners and jurisdictions Characterization of watershed geomorphic setting Development of a sediment budget design Data collection Interpretation and construction of the sediment budget Generating products (maps, reports, and presentations) to communicate findings. Sediment budget construction begins with examining the question(s) being asked and whether a sediment budget is necessary to answer these question(s). If undertaking a sediment budget analysis is a viable option, the next step is to define the spatial scale of the watershed and the time scale needed to answer the question(s). Of course, we understand that monetary constraints play a big role in any decision. Early in the sediment budget development process, we suggest getting to know your watershed by conducting a reconnaissance and meeting with local stakeholders. The reconnaissance aids in understanding the geomorphic setting of the watershed and potential sources of sediment. Identifying the potential sediment sources early in the design of the sediment budget will help later in deciding which tools are necessary to monitor erosion and/or deposition at these sources. Tools can range from rapid inventories to estimate the sediment budget or quantifying sediment erosion, deposition, and export through more rigorous field monitoring. In either approach, data are gathered and erosion and deposition calculations are determined and compared to the sediment export with a description of the error uncertainty. Findings are presented to local stakeholders and management officials. Sediment fingerprinting is a technique that apportions the sources of fine-grained sediment in a watershed using tracers or fingerprints. Due to different geologic and anthropogenic histories, the chemical and physical properties of sediment in a watershed may vary and often represent a unique signature (or fingerprint) for each source within the watershed. Fluvial sediment samples (the target sediment) are also collected and exhibit a composite of the source properties that can be apportioned through various statistical techniques. Using an unmixing-model and error analysis, the final apportioned sediment is determined.

Report↗

USGS2017

Natural resource inventory and monitoring for Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas—An assessment of needs and opportunities in northern Mongolia

Between 1997 and 2011, Mongolia established three specially protected areas in the north-central part of the country to protect various high-value resources. These areas are jointly referred to as the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas. In accordance with the goals of the draft general management plan, this report identifies options for initiating an inventory and monitoring program for the three protected areas. Together, the three areas comprise over 1.5 million hectares of mountainous terrain west of Lake Hovsgol and bordering the Darkhad Valley. The area supports numerous rare ungulates, endangered fish, and over 40 species of threatened plants. Illegal mining, illegal logging, and poaching pose the most immediate threats to resources. As a first step, a review of published literature would inform natural resource management at the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas because it would inform other inventories. Vegetation classification and mapping also would inform other inventory efforts because the process incorporates geographic analysis to identify environmental gradients, fine-scale sampling that captures species composition and structure, and landscape-scale results that represent the variety and extent of habitats for various organisms. Mapping using satellite imagery reduces the cost per hectare. Following a determination of existing knowledge, field surveys of vertebrates and vascular plants would serve to build species lists and fill in gaps in existing knowledge. For abiotic resources, a focus on monitoring air quality, evaluating and monitoring water quality, and assembling and storing weather data would provide information for correlating resource response status with changing environmental conditions. Finally, we identify datasets that, if incorporated into a geographic information system, would inform resource management. They include political boundaries, infrastructure, topography, surficial geology, hydrology, fire history, and soils. In terms of tracking high-value resources, vegetation monitoring at the plot scale would provide a basis for detecting change in such characteristics as plant species composition, vegetation structure, and productivity that are associated with landscape-scale factors such as climate change or biotic interactions. Continued population monitoring of rare ungulates, particularly argali or wild sheep ( Ovis ammon ), would provide information on how populations are responding to natural and anthropogenic stressors. Siberian taimen ( Hucho taimen ) also is an important monitoring target given ongoing threats of poaching and climate change.

Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas↗

USGS2006

Field-based evaluation of two herbaceous plant community composition sampling methods for long-term monitoring in Northern Great Plains National Parks

The Northern Great Plains Inventory & Monitoring (I&M) Network (Network) of the National Park Service (NPS) consists of 13 NPS units in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and eastern Wyoming. The Network is in the planning phase of a long-term program to monitor the health of park ecosystems. Plant community composition is one of the 'Vital Signs,' or indicators, that will be monitored as part of this program for three main reasons. First, plant community composition is information-rich; a single sampling protocol can provide information on the diversity of native and non-native species, the abundance of individual dominant species, and the abundance of groups of plants. Second, plant community composition is of specific management concern. The abundance and diversity of exotic plants, both absolute and relative to native species, is one of the greatest management concerns in almost all Network parks (Symstad 2004). Finally, plant community composition reflects the effects of a variety of current or anticipated stressors on ecosystem health in the Network parks including invasive exotic plants, large ungulate grazing, lack of fire in a fire-adapted system, chemical exotic plant control, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change. Before the Network begins its Vital Signs monitoring, a detailed plan describing specific protocols used for each of the Vital Signs must go through rigorous development and review. The pilot study on which we report here is one of the components of this protocol development. The goal of the work we report on here was to determine a specific method to use for monitoring plant community composition of the herb layer (< 2 m tall).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada. Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

Report↗

USGS2018

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

USGS2016

Development of working hypotheses linking management of the Missouri River to population dynamics of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon)

This report documents a process of filtering of hypotheses that relate Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) population dynamics to management actions including flow alterations, channel reconfigurations, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation. The filtering process was a partnership among U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to contribute to the Missouri River Recovery Management Plan process. The objective of the filtering process was to produce a set of hypotheses with high relevance to pallid sturgeon population dynamics and decision making on the Missouri River. The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team filtered hundreds of potential hypotheses implicit in conceptual ecological models to develop a set of 40 candidate dominant hypotheses that were identified by experts as being important in pallid sturgeon population dynamics. Using a modified Delphi process and additional expert opinion, the team reduced this set of hypotheses to 23 working dominant hypotheses. We then matched the 23 hypotheses with management actions that could influence the biotic outcomes, resulting in as many as 176 potential effects between management actions and pallid sturgeon in the Missouri River. This number was consolidated to a candidate set of 53 working management hypotheses because some management actions applied to multiple life stages of the pallid sturgeon. We used an additional round of expert surveys to identify a set of 30 working management hypotheses. Finally, the set of working management hypotheses was filtered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery Program for actions that were within the agency’s authority and jurisdiction. This round resulted in a set of 21 hypotheses for initial modeling of linkages from management to pallid sturgeon population responses. The initial set of candidate hypotheses provides a useful starting point for quantitative modeling and adaptive management of the river and species. We anticipate that hypotheses will change from the set of working management hypotheses as adaptive management progresses. More importantly, hypotheses that have been filtered out of our multistep process are still being considered. These filtered hypotheses are archived and if existing hypotheses are determined to be inadequate to explain observed population dynamics, new hypotheses can be created or filtered hypotheses can be reinstated.

Missouri River Basin↗

USGS2017

Assessing the global distribution of river fisheries harvest: A systematic map protocol

Background Although surface freshwater comprises < 0.01% of the total water volume of earth, freshwater inland capture fisheries and aquaculture represent 40% of the global reported finfish harvest. While the social, economic, and ecological importance of inland fish and fisheries is difficult to overstate, they are often undervalued and underappreciated. Accurate information about these highly dispersed fisheries is inherently difficult to acquire, often unreported, and not collected in a standardized format globally. A standardized river fishery database is needed for managing aquatic systems as well as for defining relevant development policies. Here, we describe our methodology to search, identify, and describe available river fisheries information to create a harmonized global database of river fisheries harvest. This database will provide the first global database of spatially and temporally explicit river fisheries data. The database can be used to identify locations, hotspots of data collection, and gaps in existing knowledge and will be especially important to inform studies and management at larger spatial scales (i.e., watershed, regional, or global scales). This database will also be critical for developing fish biomass models for rivers, which can provide managers with information critical for decision-making, such as improved valuation methods for river fish and fisheries. Methods This systematic map protocol describes the methodology to search, identify, and describe available information on river fish and fisheries across the globe. We define river fisheries as “both capture and aquaculture of river finfish species for food, income, or recreation”. River fish species are those finfish that live part, or all of their lives in rivers. The searches will be conducted for the period from 1950 to present using bibliographic databases and grey literature sources. To identify relevant evidence, pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be used to screen articles at title, abstract, and full text. A searchable database containing extracted meta-data from relevant included studies will be developed and presented as a geodatabase. The final systematic map will consist of a descriptive narrative report of the distribution and content of river fish literature including a geodatabase of available information.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2021

Characterization of deep-sea coral and sponge communities in Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary: Point Arena South Essential Fish Habitat Conservation Area and New Amendment 28 Areas

This report summarizes samples collected during a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) cruise conducted in October 2019 on board E/V Nautilus. Areas sampled in Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary included areas proposed for fisheries management zoning in the Point Arena South (PAS) Essential Fish Habitat Conservation Area (EFH). Dive planning targeted habitats and biological communities of corals, sponges, and fishes in relation to the new, 2020 configuration of PAS EFH (hereafter referred to as PAS), which includes areas once closed to commercial bottom trawling and now opened to bottom trawling, once opened to bottom trawling and now closed, or that remain closed to commercial bottom trawling. Particular interest was given to enumerating deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS) in these areas as they are long-lived, slow-growing species that are vulnerable to impacts from bottom trawling. Fish species were also enumerated. These data provide the most recent assessment and characterization for a portion of these areas before the final ruling on Amendment 28 went into effect on January 1, 2020 (50 C.F.R. part 660). A total of seven sponge specimens were collected on this mission, some of which could potentially be new species, such as the large yellow ‘plate’-shaped sponge and the ‘palm frond’ morphology of the predatory sponge Asbestopluma , documented on both dives. Six coral collections were made, including three types of red Swiftia sp. gorgonians (two had fan-shaped morphology and one had branched morphology) with different polyp colors. A high diversity of fishes, particularly groundfish, were documented across the entire PAS area. The findings from this cruise will be provided to NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service to help them identify biologically complex areas of the seafloor that are most sensitive to bottom trawling and aid in the ongoing management of this designated essential fish habitat conservation zone. Habitat data from these surveys will be used to confirm substrate prediction models that can be used to predict DSCS habitats where there is a dearth of visual observations.

California↗