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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Simulations of flow and prediction of sediment movement in Wymans Run, Cochranton Borough, Crawford County, Pennsylvania

In small watersheds, runoff entering local waterways from large storms can cause rapid and profound changes in the streambed that can contribute to flooding. Wymans Run, a small stream in Cochranton Borough, Crawford County, experienced a large rain event in June 2008 that caused sediment to be deposited at a bridge. A hydrodynamic model, Flow and Sediment Transport and Morphological Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH), which is incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS) was constructed to predict boundary shear stress and velocity in Wymans Run using data from the June 2008 event. Shear stress and velocity values can be used to indicate areas of a stream where sediment, transported downstream, can be deposited on the streambed. Because of the short duration of the June 2008 rain event, streamflow was not directly measured but was estimated using U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Scenarios to examine possible engineering solutions to decrease the amount of sediment at the bridge, including bridge expansion, channel expansion, and dredging upstream from the bridge, were simulated using the FaSTMECH model. Each scenario was evaluated for potential effects on water-surface elevation, boundary shear stress, and velocity.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2011

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of four reservoirs in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Extensive information about the construction of dams or potential downstream hazards in the event of a dam breach is not available for many small reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest. In 2009, the U.S. Forest Service identified the need for reconnaissance-level dam-breach assessments for four of these reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest (Iron Creek, Horsethief, Lakota, and Mitchell Lakes) with the potential to flood downstream structures. Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses for the four selected reservoirs were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Forest service to estimate the areal extent of downstream inundation. Three high-flow breach scenarios were considered for cases when the dam is in place (overtopped) and when a dam break (failure) occurs: the 100-year recurrence 24-hour precipitation, 500-year recurrence peak flow, and the probable maximum precipitation. Inundation maps were developed that show the estimated extent of downstream floodwaters from simulated scenarios. Simulation results were used to determine the hazard classification of a dam break (high, significant, or low), based primarily on the potential for loss of life or property damage resulting from downstream inundation because of the flood surge. The inflow design floods resulting from the two simulated storm events (100-year 24-hour and probable maximum precipitation) were determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The inflow design flood for the 500-year recurrence peak flow was determined by using regional regression equations developed for streamflow-gaging stations with similar watershed characteristics. The step-backwater hydraulic analysis model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), was used to determine water-surface profiles of in-place and dam-break scenarios for the three inflow design floods that were simulated. Inundation maps for in-place and dam-break scenarios were developed for the area downstream from the dam to the mouth of each stream. Dam-break scenarios for three of the four reservoirs assessed in this study were rated as low hazards owing to absence of permanent structures downstream from the dams. Iron Creek Lake's downstream channel to its mouth does not include any permanent structures within the inundation flood plains. For the two reservoirs with the largest watershed areas, Lakota and Mitchell Lake, the additional floodwater surge resulting from a dam break would be minor relative to the magnitude of the large flood streamflow into the reservoirs, based on the similar areal extent of inundation for the in-place and dam-break scenarios as indicated by the developed maps. A dam-break scenario at Horsethief Lake is rated as a significant hazard because of potential lives-in-jeopardy in downstream dwellings and appreciable economic loss.

South Dakota↗
USGS2024

Development and calibration of HEC–RAS hydraulic, temperature, and nutrient models for the Mohawk River, New York

In support of a preliminary analysis performed by New York State Department of Environmental Conservation that found elevated nutrient levels along selected reaches of the Mohawk River, a one-dimensional, unsteady hydraulic and water-quality model (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System Nutrient Simulation Module 1 [HEC–RAS NSM I]) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the 127-mile reach of the Mohawk River between Rome and Cohoes, New York. The model was designed to accurately simulate within-channel flow conditions for this highly regulated, control-structure dense river reach. The model was calibrated for the period of May through September 2016 using available streamflow, temperature, and water-quality data. Nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and water column algae were balanced within the model; however, the nutrient model calibration was focused on phosphorus. The HEC–RAS hydraulic model simulated streamflow adequately at the calibration locations with observed and simulated daily flows demonstrating coefficient of determination ( r 2 ) values ranging from 0.91 to 0.97, mean absolute error ranging from 15–20 percent, and bias ranging from −7 to 16 percent. The water temperature model within HEC–RAS NSM I demonstrated remarkable ability to simulate water temperature: typical water temperature errors were less than 1.0 degree Celsius (°C). Simulated water temperature results closely tracked observed continuous water temperature data at three locations on the Mohawk River, with mean absolute error for the 2016 study period ranging from 0.87 to 0.90 °C, and a root mean square error of 1.00 to 1.07 °C. Performance criteria for the water-quality (nutrient) model were applied differently than the water temperature model because of the temporally coarse discrete samples collected for the project. The average difference between final simulated concentrations and observed concentrations of organic phosphorus for all sample locations was within 0.01 milligrams per liter (mg/L) and within 0.09 mg/L for orthophosphate using all locations except Rome, which was within 0.25 mg/L. The calibrated model was used to implement nine phosphorus reduction scenarios by applying reductions to wastewater treatment plant effluent concentrations within the model. Monthly mean differences were computed for five comparison locations. Scenario results were generally linear and predictable; scenarios implementing the highest reductions showed correspondingly larger differences in Mohawk River concentrations downstream from the wastewater treatment plants associated with those reductions. The largest monthly mean differences were realized from reduction scenario nine and ranged from −0.018 to −0.076 mg/L for organic phosphorus and from 0.001 to −0.138 mg/L for orthophosphate.

New York↗
USGS2006

Performance assessments of nuclear waste repositories: A dialogue on their value and limitations

Performance Assessment (PA) is the use of mathematical models to simulate the long-term behavior of engineered and geologic barriers in a nuclear waste repository; methods of uncertainty analysis are used to assess effects of parametric and conceptual uncertainties associated with the model system upon the uncertainty in outcomes of the simulation. PA is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of its certification process for geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This paper is a dialogue to explore the value and limitations of PA. Two “skeptics” acknowledge the utility of PA in organizing the scientific investigations that are necessary for confident siting and licensing of a repository; however, they maintain that the PA process, at least as it is currently implemented, is an essentially unscientific process with shortcomings that may provide results of limited use in evaluating actual effects on public health and safety. Conceptual uncertainties in a PA analysis can be so great that results can be confidently applied only over short time ranges, the antithesis of the purpose behind long-term, geologic disposal. Two “proponents” of PA agree that performance assessment is unscientific, but only in the sense that PA is an engineering analysis that uses existing scientific knowledge to support public policy decisions, rather than an investigation intended to increase fundamental knowledge of nature; PA has different goals and constraints than a typical scientific study. The “proponents” describe an ideal, sixstep process for conducting generalized PA, here called probabilistic systems analysis (PSA); they note that virtually all scientific content of a PA is introduced during the model-building steps of a PSA, they contend that a PA based on simple but scientifically acceptable mathematical models can provide useful and objective input to regulatory decision makers. The value of the results of any PA must lie between these two views and will depend on the level of knowledge of the site, the degree to which models capture actual physical and chemical processes, the time over which extrapolations are made, and the proper evaluation of health risks attending implementation of the repository. The challenge is in evaluating whether the quality of the PA matches the needs of decision makers charged with protecting the health and safety of the public.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2016

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas. The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet. In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

Illinois↗
USGS2015

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for selected dams in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and near Atoka, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and storage of water supplies, but they also entail risk; dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or improper operation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning an emergency response if a dam breach occurs. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Oklahoma City to model dam-breach scenarios at 11 dams controlled and operated by Oklahoma City, Okla., and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the City of Oklahoma City with completion of the emergency action plans for the 11 dams, the U.S. Geological Survey used light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data (2004), which produced a 2-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains around Oklahoma City. A 5-meter Digital Terrain Map was used to model the flood plain below Atoka Reservoir in southeastern Oklahoma. Digital-elevation models, field survey measurements, hydraulic data, and hydrologic data (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations North Canadian River below Lake Overholser near Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241000], and North Canadian River at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241520]), were used as inputs for the one-dimensional dynamic (unsteady-flow) models using Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software. The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood dam-breach scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times at selected bridge crossings. Points of interest such as community-services offices, recreational areas, water-treatment plants, and wastewater-treatment plants were identified on the flood-inundation maps.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2014

Estimation of potential scour at bridges on local government roads in South Dakota, 2009-12

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey and South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) began a study to estimate potential scour at selected bridges on local government (county, township, and municipal) roads in South Dakota. A rapid scour-estimation method (level-1.5) and a more detailed method (level-2) were used to develop estimates of contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Data from 41 level-2 analyses completed for this study were combined with data from level-2 analyses completed in previous studies to develop new South Dakota-specific regression equations: four regional equations for main-channel velocity at the bridge contraction to account for the widely varying stream conditions within South Dakota, and one equation for head change. Velocity data from streamgages also were used in the regression for average velocity through the bridge contraction. Using these new regression equations, scour analyses were completed using the level-1.5 method on 361 bridges on local government roads. Typically, level-1.5 analyses are completed at flows estimated to have annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent (100-year flood) and 0.2 percent (500-year flood); however, at some sites the bridge would not pass these flows. A level-1.5 analysis was then completed at the flow expected to produce the maximum scour. Data presented for level-1.5 scour analyses at the 361 bridges include contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Estimates of potential contraction scour ranged from 0 to 32.5 feet for the various flows evaluated. Estimated potential abutment scour ranged from 0 to 40.9 feet for left abutments, and from 0 to 37.7 feet for right abutments. Pier scour values ranged from 2.7 to 31.6 feet. The scour depth estimates provided in this report can be used by the SDDOT to compare with foundation depths at each bridge to determine if abutments or piers are at risk of being undermined by scour at the flows evaluated. Replicate analyses were completed at 24 of the 361 bridges to provide quality-assurance/quality-control measures for the level-1.5 scour estimates. An attempt was made to use the same flows among replicate analyses. Scour estimates do not necessarily have to be in numerical agreement to give the same results. For example, if contraction scour replicate analyses are 18.8 and 30.8 feet, both scour depths can indicate susceptibility to scour for which countermeasures may be needed, even though one number is much greater than the other number. Contraction scour has perhaps the greatest potential for being estimated differently in replicate visits. For contraction scour estimates at the various flows analyzed, differences between results ranged from -7.8 to 5.5 feet, with a median difference of 0.4 foot and an average difference of 0.2 foot. Abutment scour appeared to be nearly as reproducible as contraction scour. For abutment scour estimates at the varying flows analyzed, differences between results ranged from -17.4 to 11 feet, with a median difference of 1.4 feet and an average difference of 1.7 feet. Estimates of pier scour tended to be the most consistently reproduced in replicate visits, with differences between results ranging from -0.3 to 0.5 foot, with a median difference of 0.0 foot and an average difference of 0.0 foot. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulics Engineering Center River Analysis Systems (HEC-RAS) software package was used to model stream hydraulics at the 41 sites with level-2 analyses. Level-1.5 analyses also were completed at these sites, and the performance of the level-1.5 method was assessed by comparing results to those from the more rigorous level-2 method. The envelope curve approach used in the level-1.5 method is designed to overestimate scour relative to the estimate from the level-2 scour analysis. In cases where the level-1.5 method estimated less scour than the level-2 method, the amount of underestimation generally was less than 3 feet. The level-1.5 method generally overestimated contraction, abutment, and pier scour relative to the level-2 method, as intended. Although the level-1.5 method is designed to overestimate scour relative to more involved analysis methods, many assumptions, uncertainties, and estimations are involved. If the envelope curves are adjusted such that the level-1.5 method never underestimates scour relative to the level-2 method, an accompanying result may be excessive overestimation.

South Dakota↗
USGS2020

Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) Canterbury Velocity Model. This is done through simulation of 148 small magnitude earthquake events in the Canterbury, New Zealand, region in order to supplement prior validation efforts directed at several larger magnitude events. Recent empirical ground motion models are also considered to benchmark the simulation predictive capability, which is examined by partitioning the prediction residuals into the various components of ground motion variability. Biases identified in source, path, and site components suggest that improvements to the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology can be made by using a longer high-frequency path duration model, reducing empirical V s 30 -based low-frequency site amplification, and utilizing site-specific velocity models in the high-frequency simulations.

Canterbury↗
USGS2013

Hydrographic surveys of four narrows within the Namakan reservoir system, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey performed multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of four narrows in the Namakan reservoir system in August 2011, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission and Environment Canada. The data-collection effort was completed to provide updated and detailed hydrographic data to Environment Canada for inclusion in a Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System hydraulic model. The Namakan reservoir system is composed of Namakan, Kabetogama, Sand Point, Crane, and Little Vermilion Lakes. Water elevations in the Namakan reservoir system are regulated according to rule curves, or guidelines for water-level management based on the time of year, established by the International Joint Commission. Water levels are monitored by established gages on Crane Lake and the outlet of Namakan Lake at Kettle Falls, but water elevations throughout the system may deviate from these measured values by as much as 0.3 meters, according to lake managers and residents. Deviations from expected water elevations may be caused by between-lake constrictions (narrows). According to the 2000 Rule Curve Assessment Workgroup, hydrologic models of the reservoir system are needed to better understand the system and to evaluate the recent changes made to rule curves in 2000. Hydrographic surveys were performed using a RESON SeaBat™7125 multibeam echosounder system. Surveys were completed at Namakan Narrows, Harrison Narrows, King Williams Narrows, and Little Vermilion Narrows. Hydrographic survey data were processed using Caris HIPS TM and SIPS TM software that interpolated a combined uncertainty and bathymetric estimator (CUBE) surface. Quality of the survey results was evaluated in relation to standards set by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) for describing the uncertainty of hydrographic surveys. More than 90 percent of the surveyed areas at the four narrows have resulting bed elevations that meet the IHO “Special Order” quality. Survey datasets published in this report are formatted as text files of x-y-z coordinates and as CARIS Spatial Archive TM (CSAR TM ) files with corresponding metadata.

Minnesota↗
USGS2006

Flood Study of Warren Brook in Alstead and Cold River in Alstead, Langdon, and Walpole, New Hampshire, 2005

This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles as determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady flow water-surface profiles were developed for two stream reaches: the Cold River from its confluence with the Connecticut River in Walpole, through Alstead to the McDermott Bridge in Langdon, NH, and Warren Brook from its confluence with the Cold River to Warren Lake in Alstead, NH. Flood events of a magnitude, which are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 10-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval), were modeled using HEC-RAS as these flood events are recognized as being significant for flood-plain management, determination of flood insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. These flood events are referred to as the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The recurrence intervals represent the long-term average between floods of a specific magnitude. The risk of experiencing rare floods at short intervals or within the same year increases when periods greater than one year are considered. The analyses in this study reflect the flooding potentials based on conditions existing in the communities of Walpole, Alstead and Langdon at the time of completion of this study.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Flood-inundation maps for Sweetwater Creek from above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to the Interstate 20 bridge, Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 10.5-mile reach of Sweetwater Creek, from about 1,800 feet above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to about 160 feet below the Interstate 20 bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Cobb County, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Georgia (02337000). Current stage at this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell (02337000), which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software for Sweetwater Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 10.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Sweetwater Creek near Austell streamgage (02337000), as well as high-water marks collected during annual peak-flow events in 1982 and 2009. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 21 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Sweetwater Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (12.0 feet) to approximately 1.2 feet above the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (32.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from contour data (8-foot horizontal resolution), in Cobb County, and USGS National Elevation Dataset (31-foot horizontal resolution), in Douglas County—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia↗
USGS2005

Hydrology, geomorphology, and flood profiles of Lemon Creek, Juneau, Alaska

Lemon Creek near Juneau, Alaska has a history of extensive gravel mining, which straightened and deepened the stream channel in the lower reaches of the study area. Gravel mining and channel excavation began in the 1940s and continued through the mid-1980s. Time sequential aerial photos and field investigations indicate that the channel morphology is reverting to pre-disturbance conditions through aggradation of sediment and re-establishment of braided channels, which may result in decreased channel conveyance and increased flooding potential. Time sequential surveys of selected channel cross sections were conducted in an attempt to determine rates of channel aggradation/degradation throughout three reaches of the study area. In order to assess flooding potential in the lower reaches of the study area the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model was used to estimate the water-surface elevations for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. A regionally based regression equation was used to estimate the magnitude of floods for the selected recurrence intervals. Forty-two cross sections were surveyed to define the hydraulic characteristics along a 1.7-mile reach of the stream. High-water marks from a peak flow of 1,820 cubic feet per second, or about a 5-year flood, were surveyed and used to calibrate the model throughout the study area. The stream channel at a bridge in the lower reach could not be simulated without violating assumptions of the model. A model without the lower bridge indicates flood potential is limited to a small area.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Hydrology and Flood Profiles of Duck Creek and Jordan Creek Downstream from Egan Drive, Juneau, Alaska

Hydrologic and hydraulic updates for Duck Creek and the lower part of Jordan Creek in Juneau, Alaska, included computation of new estimates of peak streamflow magnitudes and new water-surface profiles for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods. Computations for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence interval flood magnitudes for both streams used data from U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations weighted with regional regression equations for southeast Alaska. The study area for the hydraulic model consisted of three channels: Duck Creek from Taku Boulevard near the stream's headwaters to Radcliffe Road near the end of the Juneau International Airport runway, an unnamed tributary to Duck Creek from Valley Boulevard to its confluence with Duck Creek, and Jordan Creek from a pedestrian bridge upstream from Egan Drive to Crest Street at Juneau International Airport. Field surveys throughout the study area provided channel geometry for 206 cross sections, and geometric and hydraulic characteristics for 29 culverts and 15 roadway, driveway, or pedestrian bridges. Hydraulic modeling consisted of application of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) for steady-state flow at the selected recurrence intervals using an assumed high tide of 20 feet and roughness coefficients refined by calibration to measured water-surface elevations from a 2- to 5-year flood that occurred on November 21, 2005. Model simulation results identify inter-basin flow from Jordan Creek to the southeast at Egan Drive and from Duck Creek to Jordan Creek downstream from Egan Drive at selected recurrence intervals.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Development of flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Lycoming County, Pennsylvania

Streamflow data, water-surface-elevation profiles derived from a Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System hydraulic model, and geographical information system digital elevation models were used to develop a set of 18 flood-inundation maps for an approximately 5-mile reach of the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Pa. The inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and Lycoming County as part of an ongoing effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service to focus on continued improvements to the flood forecasting and warning abilities in the Susquehanna River Basin and to modernize flood-forecasting methodologies. The maps, ranging from 23.0 to 40.0 feet in 1-foot increments, correspond to river stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01549760 at Jersey Shore. The electronic files used to develop the maps were provided to the National Weather Service for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. The maps are displayed on this website, which serves as a web-based floodwarning system, and can be used to identify areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. During times of flooding or predicted flooding, these maps can be used by emergency managers and the public to take proactive steps to protect life and reduce property damage caused by floods.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2010

Flood study of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, 2009

On May 15, 2006, a breach in the riverbank caused an avulsion in the Suncook River in Epsom, NH. The breach in the riverbank and subsequent avulsion changed the established flood zones along the Suncook River; therefore, a new flood study was needed to reflect this change and aid in flood recovery and restoration. For this flood study, the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for the Suncook River were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady-state water-surface profiles were developed for the Suncook River from its confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (in Allenstown and Pembroke, NH) to the upstream corporate limit of the town of Epsom, NH (approximately 15.9 river miles). Floods of magnitudes that are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval) were modeled using HEC-RAS. These flood events are referred to as the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood events are important for flood-plain management, determination of flood-insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. The analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials that are based on existing conditions in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown at the time of completion of this study (2009). Changes in the 100-year recurrence-interval flood elevation from the 1979 flood study were typically less than 2 feet with the exception of a location 900 feet upstream from the avulsion that, because of backwater from the dams in the abandoned channel, was 12 feet higher in the 1979 flood study than in this study.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood along the Little Missouri River near Langley, Arkansas, using a hydrologic model coupled to a hydraulic model

A substantial flood event occurred on June 11, 2010, causing the Little Missouri River to flow over much of the adjacent land area, resulting in catastrophic damages. Twenty fatalities occurred and numerous automobiles, cabins, and recreational vehicles were destroyed within the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service Albert Pike Recreation Area, at a dispersed campsite area in the surrounding Ouachita National Forest lands, and at a nearby privately owned camp. The Little Missouri River streamgage near Langley, Arkansas, reached a record streamflow of 70,800 cubic feet per second and a stage (water level) of 23.5 feet at 5:30 a.m., with a 10-foot rise occurring in slightly more than 1 hour. To better understand the flood event on June 11, 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, developed a precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), coupled with a one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), to simulate precipitation runoff and streamflow characteristics along the Little Missouri River and at various tributaries within the 68-square mile watershed upstream from the Langley streamgage. Within the proximity of two campgrounds, the Little Missouri River just downstream from the confluence of Brier Creek had a peak simulated streamflow of 49,300 cubic feet per second at 4:08 a.m.; the simulated streamflow stayed within 500 cubic feet per second of the peak for nearly 15 minutes. The simulated water surface increased an average of 0.5 feet every 5 minutes for a total of 2 hours, with a maximum rate of rise of 2 feet in 15 minutes. The Little Missouri River just downstream from the confluence of Brier Creek had a peak simulated water-surface elevation of 935.0 feet, a maximum water depth of 22.2 feet, and a maximum stream channel velocity of 12.6 feet per second at 4:15 a.m. The results from the precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, the one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, and a separate two-dimensional model developed as part of a coincident study, each complement the other in terms of streamflow timing, water-surface elevations, and velocities propagated by the June 11, 2010, flood event. The simulated grids for water depth and stream velocity from each model were directly compared by subtracting the one-dimensional hydraulic model grid from the two-dimensional model grid. The absolute mean difference for the simulated water depth was 0.9 foot. Additionally, the absolute mean difference for the simulated stream velocity was 1.9 feet per second.

Arkansas↗
USGS2015

Flood recovery maps for the White River in Bethel, Stockbridge, and Rochester, Vermont, and the Tweed River in Stockbridge and Pittsfield, Vermont, 2014

From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall ranging from about 4 inches to more than 7 inches in the White River Basin. The rainfall resulted in severe flooding throughout the basin and significant damage along the White River and Tweed River. In response to the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a new flood study to aid in the flood recovery and restoration. This flood study includes a 20.7-mile reach of the White River from the downstream end at about 2,000 feet downstream from the State Route 107 bridge in the Village of Bethel, Vermont, to the upstream end at about 1,000 feet upstream from the River Brook Drive bridge in the Village of Rochester, Vt., and a 7.9-mile reach of the Tweed River from its mouth in Stockbridge, Vt., to the confluence of the West and South Branches of the Tweed River and continuing upstream on the South Branch Tweed River to the Pittsfield, Vt., town line. This report presents water-surface elevations determined for the study reaches using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional step-backwater Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model, also known as HEC– RAS. The water-surface elevations were determined for floods having a 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) and for the floodway. Eighteen high-water marks from Tropical Storm Irene were available along the studied reaches. The discharges in the Tropical Storm Irene HEC–RAS model were adjusted so that the resulting water-surface elevations matched the high-water mark elevations along the study reaches. This allowed for an estimation of the water-surface profile throughout the study area resulting from Tropical Storm Irene. From a comparison of the estimated water-surface profile of Tropical Storm Irene to the water-surface profiles of the 1- and 0.2-percent AEP floods, it was determined that the high-water elevations resulting from Tropical Storm Irene exceeded the estimated 1-percent AEP flood throughout the White River and Tweed River study reaches and exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP flood in 16.7 of the 28.6 study reach miles. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 18.2-centimeter vertical accuracy at the 95-percent confidence level and 1-meter horizontal resolution to delineate the area flooded for each water-surface profile.

Vermont↗
USGS2015

Flood Map for the Winooski River in Waterbury, Vermont, 2014

From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall ranging from approximately 4 to more than 7 inches in the Winooski River Basin in Vermont. The rainfall resulted in severe flooding throughout the basin and significant damage along the Winooski River. In response to the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a new flood study to aid in flood recovery and restoration and to assist in flood forecasting. The study resulted in two sets of flood maps that depict the flooding for an 8.3-mile reach of the Winooski River from about 1,000 feet downstream of the Waterbury-Bolton, Vermont, town line upstream to about 2,000 feet upstream of the Waterbury-Middlesex, Vt., town line. The first set of maps consists of flood-recovery maps depicting the boundaries of floodwaters at the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) discharges, the boundaries of the floodway, and the boundaries of floodwaters from Tropical Storm Irene as estimated by a hydraulic model. The second set of maps consists of flood-inundation maps depicting the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS Winooski River above Crossett Bk at Waterbury, VT (04288040) streamgage. The maps correspond to streamgage water levels ranging from 417.0 to 431.0 feet in 2-foot increments. The availability of these flood-inundation maps along with current stage from the USGS streamgage obtained from a USGS Web site will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts. These flood inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ ). To generate the maps, flood profiles for the Winooski River were developed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional step-backwater Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model (HEC–RAS), was used to compute the water-surface profiles along the study reach. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a vertical accuracy that meets or exceeds vertical national map accuracy standards for 2-foot contour mapping to delineate the area flooded for each water-surface profile. High-water marks from Tropical Storm Irene were available for seven locations along the study reach. The highwater marks were used to estimate water-surface profiles and discharges resulting from Tropical Storm Irene throughout the study reach. From a comparison of the estimated water-surface profile for Tropical Storm Irene with the water-surface profiles for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods, it was determined that the high-water elevations resulting from Tropical Storm Irene exceeded the estimated 1-percent AEP flood throughout the Winooski River study reach but did not exceed the estimated 0.2-percent AEP flood at any location within the study reach.

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