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USGS2021

Weather affects post‐fire recovery of sagebrush‐steppe communities and model transferability among sites

Altered climate, including weather extremes, can cause major shifts in vegetative recovery after disturbances. Predictive models that can identify the separate and combined temporal effects of disturbance and weather on plant communities and that are transferable among sites are needed to guide vulnerability assessments and management interventions. We asked how functional group abundance responded to time since fire and antecedent weather, if long‐term vegetation trajectories were better explained by initial post‐fire weather conditions or by general five‐year antecedent weather, and if weather effects helped predict post‐fire vegetation abundances at a new site. We parameterized models using a 30‐yr vegetation monitoring dataset from burned and unburned areas of the Orchard Training Area (OCTC) of southern Idaho, USA, and monthly PRISM data, and assessed model transferability on an independent dataset from the well‐sampled Soda wildfire area along the Idaho/Oregon border. Sagebrush density increased with lower mean air temperature of the coldest month and slightly increased with higher mean air temperature of the hottest month, and with higher maximum January–June precipitation. Perennial grass cover increased in relation to higher precipitation, measured annually in the first four years after fire and/or in September–November the year of fire. Annual grass increased in relation to higher March–May precipitation in the year after fire, but not with September–November precipitation in the year of fire. Initial post‐fire weather conditions explained 1% more variation in sagebrush density than recent antecedent 5‐yr weather did but did not explain additional variation in perennial or annual grass cover. Inclusion of weather variables increased transferability of models for predicting perennial and annual grass cover from the OCTC to the Soda wildfire regardless of the time period in which weather was considered. In contrast, inclusion of weather variables did not affect transferability of the forecasts of post‐fire sagebrush density from the OCTC to the Soda site. Although model transferability may be improved by including weather covariates when predicting post‐fire vegetation recovery, predictions may be surprisingly unaffected by the temporal windows in which coarse‐scale gridded weather data are considered.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Sagebrush recovery patterns after fuel treatments mediated by disturbance type and plant functional group interactions

Fire and fuel management is a high priority in North American sagebrush ecosystems where the expansion of piñon and juniper trees and the invasion of nonnative annual grasses are altering fire regimes and resulting in loss of sagebrush species and habitat. We evaluated 10-yr effects of woody fuel treatments on sagebrush recruitment and plant functional group interactions using Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project data. We used mixed-effects ANOVAs to examine treatment effects on sagebrush density and cover and perennial and annual grass cover in expansion woodlands (prescribed fire and cut-and-leave) and annual grass invasion areas (prescribed fire, mowing, tebuthiuron herbicide application). We used piecewise structural equation models to evaluate interactions among sagebrush seedling density, juvenile and adult density, and cover and perennial and annual grass cover. Fuel treatments were equated to pulse or press disturbances varying in resource release and subsequent intra- and interspecific interactions. Prescribed fire, a high magnitude pulse disturbance with more severe effects in warm and dry sites, reduced sagebrush cover and decoupled associations among sagebrush seedlings, juvenile and adult density, and cover indicating changed population structure. Cutting and leaving trees, a low magnitude pulse disturbance in cooler and moister woodlands, increased sagebrush density and cover and generally had lesser effects on sagebrush intraspecific associations. Mowing, a moderate magnitude pulse disturbance, and tebuthiuron herbicide application, a multiyear press disturbance, reduced sagebrush cover and disrupted intraspecific relationships. Competitive release increased cover of perennial grass in all treatments but tebuthiuron. Annual grass increased in all treatments, especially prescribed fire and tebuthiuron. Annual and perennial grass interactions with sagebrush were generally rare, but in woodland treatments perennial grass suppressed annual grass through year 6. Treatments in cooler and moister woodland sites had more positive effects on sagebrush recruitment and perennial grass cover, less negative effects on sagebrush intraspecific interactions, and smaller increases in annual grass cover indicating potential increases in resilience to fire. In warmer and drier invasion sites, reductions in woody fuels resulted in lack of sagebrush recruitment, disruption of sagebrush intraspecific interactions, and progressive increases in annual grass indicating reduced resilience to fire and resistance to invaders.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Mercury and water level management in lakes of northern Minnesota

Water level (WL) fluctuations substantially alter the fauna, flora, and microbial community of nearshore aquatic ecosystems. Water level management therefore has the potential to strongly influence a wide variety of ecosystem processes. Many northern temperate lake food webs experience substantial methylmercury contamination, which is partially mediated by the action of sulfate-reducing bacteria occurring in sediments that are periodically inundated. For lakes with elevated methylmercury, WL management could be designed to reduce methylmercury contamination. At the lake scale, this concept is supported by studies that identified statistical associations between fish mercury content and water level (WL) fluctuations. Here, we compiled a long-term dataset (1997–2015) of mercury content in young-of-year Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) from six lakes on the border of the United States and Canada and examined whether mercury content was associated with WL fluctuation. Many WL metrics covary and appear to have strong associations with Yellow Perch mercury. However, these associations appear to vary by lake, and lake-specific models are needed to identify relationships between WL fluctuation and Yellow Perch mercury content. We used partial least-squares regression (PLSR) to identify the associations between Yellow Perch mercury content and WL metrics, temperature, and annual deposition data for lakes in northern Minnesota. These PLSR models not only showed some variation among lakes, but also supported strong associations between WL fluctuations and annual variation in Yellow Perch mercury content. The study lakes underwent a change in WL management in 2000, when winter WL minimums were increased by about 1 m in five of the six study lakes, which reduced annual WL fluctuation on those lakes. Using the PLSR models, we estimated how this change in WL management would have affected Yellow Perch mercury content. In four of the five study lakes in which annual WL fluctuation was reduced in 2000, the change in WL management likely reduced Yellow Perch mercury content, relative to the previous WL management regime.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Willow drives changes in arthropod communities of northwestern Alaska: Ecological implications of shrub expansion

Arthropods serve as complex linkages between plants and higher-level predators in Arctic ecosystems and provide key ecosystem services such as pollination and nutrient cycling. Arctic plant communities are changing as tall woody shrubs expand onto tundra, but potential effects on arthropod abundance and food web structure remain unclear. Changes in vegetation structure can alter the physical habitat, thermal environment, and food available to arthropods, thereby having the potential to induce cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We evaluated relationships between the abundance, biomass, and community composition of arthropods and the cover of several shrub taxa across tundra–shrub gradients in northwestern Alaska. While previous research had found a general positive association between arthropod biomass and shrub cover, we found heterogeneity in this relationship with finer-scale examination of (1) shrub taxa, (2) arthropod taxa, and (3) arthropod guilds. Abundance and biomass of arthropods showed strong, positive associations with the amount of cover of willow ( Salix spp.) but were not significantly influenced by shrub birch ( Betula spp.) or ericaceous (Ericaceae) vegetation. Significant shifts in arthropod community composition were also associated with willows. Among trophic groups of arthropods, herbivores and pollinators were most positively associated with willow cover. Due to geographical variation in both dominant shrub taxa and their rates of expansion, effects on arthropod communities are likely to be heterogeneous across the Arctic. Taken together, our results suggest that shrub expansion could increase food availability for higher-level insectivores and shift Arctic food web structure.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy

A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated future (241 GW) levels of installed wind energy capacity in the United States. Our goals were to identify species at relatively high vs low risk of experiencing population declines from turbine collisions and to also compare results generated from these approaches. Two of the approaches used a calculated turbine-caused mortality rate to decrement population growth, where population trends were derived either from the North American Breeding Bird Survey or a matrix model parameterized from literature-derived demographic values. The third approach was potential biological removal, which estimates the number of fatalities that allow a population to reach and maintain its optimal sustainable population set by management concerns. Different results among the methods reveal substantial gaps in knowledge and uncertainty in both demographic parameters and species-specific estimates of fatalities from wind turbines. Our results suggest that, of the 14 species studied, those with relatively higher potential of population-level impacts from wind turbine collisions included barn owl, ferruginous hawk, golden eagle, American kestrel, and red-tailed hawk. Burrowing owl, Cooper’s hawk, great horned owl, northern harrier, turkey vulture, and osprey had a relatively lower potential for population impacts, and results were not easily interpretable for merlin, prairie falcon, and Swainson’s hawk. Projections of current levels of fatalities to future wind energy scenarios at 241 GW of installed capacity suggest some species could experience population declines because of turbine collisions. Populations of those species may benefit from research to identify tools to prevent or reduce raptor collisions with wind turbines.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Projected change in rangeland fractional component cover across the sagebrush biome under climate change through 2085

Climate change over the past century has altered vegetation community composition and species distributions across rangelands in the western United States. The scale and magnitude of climatic influences are unknown. While many studies have projected the effects of climate change using several modeling approaches, none has evaluated the impacts to fractional component cover at a 30-m resolution across the full sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. We used fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups and weather data from the 1985 to 2018 reference period in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop empirical models describing the spatiotemporal variation in component cover. To investigate the ramifications of future change across the western United States, we extended models based on historical relationships over the reference period to model landscape effects based on future weather conditions from two emission scenarios and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). We tested both generalized additive models (GAMs) and regression tree models, finding that the former led to superior spatial and statistical results. Our results indicate more xeric vegetation across most of the study area, with an increasing dominance of non-sagebrush shrubs, annual herbaceous cover, and bare ground over herbaceous and sagebrush cover in both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In general, both scenarios yielded similar results, but RCP 8.5 tended to be more extreme, with greater change relative to the reference period. Results demonstrate that in cool sites some degree of warming to growing season maximum temperature or nongrowing season minimum temperature could be beneficial to sagebrush and shrub growth. However, warming nongrowing season maximum temperature was beneficial to shrub, but not to sagebrush growth. Our results inform rangeland managers of potential future vegetation composition, cover, and species distributions, which could improve prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2021

Hippopotamus movements structure the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak

Globally, anthrax outbreaks pose a serious threat to people, livestock, and wildlife. Furthermore, environmental change can exacerbate these outbreak dynamics by altering the host–pathogen relationship. However, little is known about how the quantitative spatial dynamics of host movement and environmental change may affect the spread of Bacillus anthracis , the causative agent of anthrax. Here, we use real-time observations and high-resolution tracking data from a population of common hippopotamus ( Hippopotamus amphibius ) in Tanzania to explore the relationship between river hydrology, H. amphibius movement, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak. We found that extreme river drying, a consequence of anthropogenic disturbances to our study river, indirectly facilitated the spread of B. anthracis by modulating H. amphibius movements. Our findings reveal that anthrax spread upstream in the Great Ruaha River (~3.5 km over a 9-day period), which followed the movement patterns of infected H. amphibius , who moved upstream as the river dried in search of remaining aquatic refugia. These upstream movements can result in large aggregations of H. amphibius . However, despite these aggregations, the density of H. amphibius in river pools did not influence the number of B. anthracis -induced mortalities. Moreover, infection by B. anthracis did not appear to influence H. amphibius movement behaviors, which suggests that infected individuals can vector B. anthracis over large distances right up until their death. Finally, we show that contact rates between H. amphibius- and B. anthracis- infected river pools are highly variable and the frequency and duration of contacts could potentially increase the probability of mortality. While difficult to obtain, the quantitative insights that we gathered during a real-time anthrax outbreak are critical to better understand, predict, and manage future outbreaks.

Ruaha National Park↗

USGS2021

Migration efficiency sustains connectivity across agroecological networks supporting sandhill crane migration

Preserving avian flyway connectivity has long been challenged by our capacity to meaningfully quantify continental habitat dynamics and bird movements at temporal and spatial scales underlying long-distance migrations. Waterbirds migrating hundreds or thousands of kilometers depend on networks of wetland stopover sites to rest and refuel. Entire populations may rely on discrete wetland habitats, particularly in arid landscapes where the loss of limited stopover options can have disproportionately high impacts on migratory cost. Here, we examine flyway connectivity in water-limited ecosystems of western North America using 108 GPS tagged greater sandhill cranes. Bird movements were used to reconstruct wetland stopover networks across three geographically unique sub-populations spanning 12 US-Mexican states and Canadian provinces. Networks were monitored with remote sensing to identify long-term (1988-2019) trends in wetland and agricultural resources supporting migration and evaluated using network theory and centrality metrics as a measure of stopover site importance to flyway connectivity. Sandhill crane space-use was analyzed in stopover locations to identify important ownership and landscape factors structuring bird distributions. Migratory efficiency was the primary mechanism underpinning network function. A small number of key stopover sites important to minimizing movement cost between summering and wintering locations were essential to preserving flyway connectivity. Localized efficiencies were apparent in stopover landscapes given prioritization of space-use by birds where the proximity of agricultural food resources and flooded wetlands minimized daily movements. Model depictions showing wetland declines from 16-18% likely reflect a new normal in landscape drying that could decouple agriculture-waterbird relationships as water scarcity intensifies. Sustaining network resilience will require conservation strategies to balance water allocations preserving agricultural and wetlands on private lands that accounted for 67-96% of habitat use. Study outcomes provide new perspectives of agroecological relationships supporting continental waterbird migration needed to prioritize conservation of landscapes vital to maintaining flyway connectivity.

western North America↗

USGS2021

Hydropeaking intensity and dam proximity limit aquatic invertebrate diversity in the Colorado River Basin

River biodiversity is threatened globally by hydropower dams, and there is a need to understand how dam management favors certain species while filtering out others. We examined aquatic invertebrate communities within the tailwaters 0–24 km downstream of seven large hydropower dams in the Colorado River Basin of the western United States. We quantified aquatic invertebrate dominance, richness, abundance, and biomass at multiple locations within individual tailwaters and across the basin and identified biological community responses associated with dam operations and distance from dam. We found that each tailwater was dominated by 3–7 invertebrate taxa, accounting for 95% of total abundance. Half of these dominant taxa were non-insect, non-flying species and thus were unavailable to terrestrial consumers. Consistent with previous studies, aquatic insects and sensitive taxa were negatively associated with hydropeaking intensity (magnitude of daily flow fluctuations associated with hydropower generation), which limits the composition and potentially the quality of the invertebrate food base. While total invertebrate abundance and biomass did not change with increasing distance downstream from dams, insect and sensitive taxa richness, abundance, and biomass all increased, suggesting that impacts of hydropeaking are most acute immediately downstream of dams. Our results demonstrate that tailwaters experiencing hydropeaking support high abundances of aquatic invertebrate, but the diversity of these communities is low.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2021

Spatial ecology of invasive Burmese pythons in southwestern Florida

Understanding the spatial ecology of an invasive species is critical for designing effective control programs. Determining and quantifying home range estimates and habitat associations can streamline targeted removal efforts for wide-ranging, cryptic animals. The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is a large-bodied constrictor snake with an established and expanding invasive population in southern Florida. This apex predator has severely impacted native wildlife across the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, limited ecological information exists on this invasive species at the landscape level. Here, we present results from a study using radiotelemetry to quantify movements and habitat use patterns of 25 adult Burmese pythons in southwestern Florida, USA, for average periods of 814 d (range: 288–1809). Our objective was to quantify home range size, movement rates, and second- and third-order habitat selection. Mean annual home range size was 7.5 km 2 ± 2.9 km 2 (95% kernel density estimate), and pythons moved at a maximum mean daily rate of 0.52 km/d. Burmese pythons selected agriculture, freshwater wetland, saline wetland, and upland land cover classes but avoided open water and urban land cover classes. Nest site selection was highest for pythons at an elevation of 1.7 m with nesting hotspots concentrated on the borders of urban and agricultural areas or in sandy forested upland habitats. A broader understanding of the spatial utilization of Burmese pythons will enhance the utility of emerging control strategies across their invaded range.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Thermal stability of an adaptable, invasive ectotherm: Argentine giant tegus in the Greater Everglades ecosystem, USA

Invasive species globally threaten biodiversity and economies, but the ecophysiological mechanisms underlying their success are often understudied. For those alien species that also exhibit high phenotypic plasticity, such as habitat generalists, adaptations in response to environmental pressures can take place relatively quickly. The Argentine giant tegu ( Salvator merianae ; tegu) is a large omnivorous lizard from South America that is prolific, long-lived, vagile, and highly adaptable to disturbed environments. They are well suited to the climate of southeastern United States, introduced to several disjunct areas, including the Everglades, where their voracious appetite threatens native wildlife. Tegus undergo winter dormancy (hibernation) to cope with colder temperatures, and while this behavior may facilitate invasion into more temperate regions, it may also present management opportunities. We studied the thermal habits of wild S. merianae within their invaded range in southern Florida, USA. We used radiotelemetry and trail cameras to verify aboveground behaviors, and temperature dataloggers to monitor surface (sun-exposed [ T e ] and shaded [ T s ]), ambient ( T a ), subsurface ground ( T h ), and internal body ( T b ) temperatures of a population of free-ranging tegus over several seasons. We evaluated thermal and behavioral data and identified five biologically significant periods: pre-hibernal, hibernal, cold snaps, hibernal-basking, and post-hibernal. We found tegus maintained thermal stability throughout the hibernal period, frequently at temperatures above available thermal microhabitats. Variation in T b was lowest during hibernation and cold snaps and was less variable than subsurface temperatures despite not leaving their hibernaculum. Hibernal ingress and egress were best predicted by temperature differentials between exposed soil and ambient daily mean temperatures ( T e − T a ) and daylength. Though we detected no sex differences, larger animals started hibernation sooner, stayed in hibernation longer, and retained higher fat stores over the study period. One individual did not hibernate, representing only the second record of this behavior. Despite limitations of these descriptive data, this is the first study finely detailing T b of a population of wild, free-ranging S. merianae over multiple biologically significant time periods and to associate T b with thermal habitats within its invasive range. Tegus' apparent ability for thermal stability expands the adaptability breadth of this species and underscores the invasion threat.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Response of forage plants to alteration of temperature and spring thaw date: Implications for geese in a warming Arctic

Changes in summer temperatures in Arctic Alaska have led to longer and warmer growing seasons over the last three decades. Corresponding with these changes in climate, the abundance and distributions of geese have increased and expanded over the same period. We used an experimental approach to assess the response of goose forage plants to simulated environmental change. We subjected Carex subspathacea , a preferred goose forage growing on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, to manipulations of temperature and timing of spring thaw to measure potential effects in terms of plant nitrogen concentration, aboveground biomass, and total nitrogen availability. Carex subspathacea responded to warming in a dynamic fashion. Increases in temperature led to decreases in leaf nitrogen concentration but increases in aboveground biomass. The increase in biomass was stronger than the decline in nitrogen concentration such that total nitrogen availability was increased with temperature for the first 35–40 d of the season. Grazing removal accounted for only minimal offtake of biomass, and we found no indication that grazing maintained elevated levels of nitrogen concentration longer in the season as reported in other studies. Based on demonstrated relationships in the literature between forage nitrogen concentrations and gosling growth rates, we conclude that there is currently abundant high-quality forage available across the ACP. This finding fits with recent evidence of high gosling growth rates and increasing trends in goose abundance on the ACP. Our results suggest that with climate warming of a few degrees, nitrogen concentration of forage may decrease, but forage biomass and total nitrogen availability will increase. Our data suggest that nitrogen concentration will not fall below the minimum threshold required by geese in the near future. As such, we suggest that there is currently no bottom-up limitation to goose numbers on the ACP.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Demography of the Oregon spotted frog along a hydrologically modified river

Altered flow regimes can contribute to dissociation between life history strategies and environmental conditions, leading to reduced persistence reported for many wildlife populations inhabiting regulated rivers. The Oregon spotted frog ( Rana pretiosa ) is a threatened species occurring in floodplains, ponds, and wetlands in the Pacific Northwest with a core range in Oregon, USA. All life stages of R. pretiosa are reliant on aquatic habitats, and inundation patterns across the phenological timeline can have implications for population success. We conducted capture–mark–recapture (CMR) sampling of adult and subadult R. pretiosa at three sites along the Deschutes River downstream from two dams that regulate flows. We related the seasonal extent of inundated habitat at each site to monthly survival probabilities using a robust design CMR model. We also developed matrix projection models to simulate population dynamics into the future under current river flows. Monthly survival was strongly associated with the extent and variability of inundated habitat, suggesting some within-season fluctuations at higher water levels could be beneficial. Seasonal survival was lowest in the winter for all three sites, owing to limited water availability and the greater number of months within this season relative to other seasons. Population growth for the two river-connected sites was most strongly linked to adult survival, whereas population growth at the river-disconnected site was most strongly tied to survival in juvenile stages. This research identifies population effects of seasonally limited water and highlights conservation potential of enhancing survival of particularly influential life stages.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Translocation, survival, and recovery of Kansas-banded Canada geese

Temperate-breeding, or resident, Canada geese were once extirpated in Kansas, USA, but currently provide abundant viewing and hunting opportunities. Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks, and Tourism (KDWPT) began reintroducing geese in 1980 with a goal of re-establishing a breeding population. Successful reintroductions led to translocating flocks to regions with no previous records of nesting geese; however, KDWPT continues to translocate individuals from nuisance flocks in urban areas to rural reservoirs to reduce human conflicts with urban geese. Our goal was to determine the effects of such translocations on survival and recovery of adult, sub-adult, and juvenile temperate-breeding Canada geese. We used Brownie dead-recovery models in Program MARK to compare survival and recovery probabilities between translocated and nontranslocated (normal wild) Kansas-banded Canada geese for 2012–2017. Model-estimated annual survival differed between status (normal wild Ŝ = 0.761, 95% CI 0.734–0.785; translocated Ŝ = 0.598, 95% CI 0.528–0.665). Recovery probability differed between normal and translocated adults (normal wild ḟ = 0.074, 95% CI = 0.069–0.078; translocated ḟ = 0.138, 95% CI = 0.120–0.158) and juveniles (normal wild ḟ = 0.067, 95% CI = 0.059–0.075; translocated ḟ = 0.250, 95% CI = 0.199–0.310). Recovery probability did not differ between status in the sub-adult age class (normal wild ḟ = 0.126, 95% CI = 0.115–0.137; translocated ḟ = 0.090, 95% CI = 0.055–0.144). Translocation is a viable management option to successfully reduce survival and increase recovery probability of urban nuisance geese in Kansas.

Kansas↗

USGS2021

Integrating telemetry data at several scales with spatial capture–recapture to improve density estimates

Accurate population estimates are essential for monitoring and managing wildlife populations. Mark–recapture sampling methods have regularly been used to estimate population parameters for rare and cryptic species, including the federally listed Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ); however, the methods employed are often plagued by violations of statistical assumptions, which have the potential to bias density estimates. By incorporating spatial information into conventional density estimation models, spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models can account for common assumption violations such as spatially heterogeneous detection probabilities and temporary emigration when animals leave plots during a survey. We conducted mark–recapture surveys at 10 1-km 2 plots in and adjacent to the Ivanpah Valley of California and Nevada from 2015 to 2019. Locality data were collected concurrently using radio-telemetry and GPS data loggers. GPS data demonstrated that desert tortoises frequently exhibited temporary emigration outside a plot during the survey periods, thereby complicating standard approaches for closed-model density estimation. We integrated mark–recapture survey data for subadults and adults at each plot with corresponding spatial capture locations and supplementary spatial data using a modified SCR model fitted in a Bayesian framework. We compared density estimates modeled with conventional non-spatial methods, as well as three SCR models based on symmetrical usage areas described by various levels and types of supplementary spatial data. The conventional model consistently resulted in inflated estimates of density while the SCR models allowed us to generate spatially corrected estimates for a species where detectability and densities are low. However, we found that if not properly specified, the temporal scale of supplementary data may result in an unintended source of bias in parameter estimates. Integrating spatial data over a larger temporal scale than mark–recapture surveys were conducted resulted in higher detection probabilities and lower density estimates, due to an overestimation of space use. Our results not only demonstrate the importance of accounting for spatial information but also the value of understanding the potential for bias when integrating multiple data sets at different temporal resolutions. The methods presented can be used to enhance monitoring efforts for the Mojave desert tortoise and other species where mark–recapture methods are used.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Understanding the future of big sagebrush regeneration: challenges of projecting complex ecological processes

Regeneration is an essential demographic step that affects plant population persistence, recovery after disturbances, and potential migration to track suitable climate conditions. Challenges of restoring big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) after disturbances including fire-invasive annual grass interactions exemplify the need to understand the complex regeneration processes of this long-lived, woody species that is widespread across the semiarid western U.S. Projected 21st century climate change is expected to increase drought risks and intensify restoration challenges. A detailed understanding of regeneration will be crucial for developing management frameworks for the big sagebrush region in the 21st century. Here, we used two complementary models to explore spatial and temporal relationships in the potential of big sagebrush regeneration representing (1) range-wide big sagebrush regeneration responses in natural vegetation (process-based model) and (2) big sagebrush restoration seeding outcomes following fire in the Great Basin and the Snake River Plains (regression-based model). The process-based model suggested substantial geographic variation in long-term regeneration trajectories with central and northern areas of the big sagebrush region remaining climatically suitable, whereas marginal and southern areas are becoming less suitable. The regression-based model suggested, however, that restoration seeding may become increasingly more difficult, illustrating the particularly difficult challenge of promoting sagebrush establishment after wildfire in invaded landscapes. These results suggest that sustaining big sagebrush on the landscape throughout the 21st century may climatically be feasible for many areas and that uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of big sagebrush may be driven more by dynamics of biological invasions and wildfire than by uncertainty in climate change projections. Divergent projections of the two models under 21st century climate conditions encourage further study to evaluate potential benefits of re-creating conditions of uninvaded, unburned natural big sagebrush vegetation for post-fire restoration seeding, such as seeding in multiple years and, for at least much of the northern Great Basin and Snake River Plains, the control of the fire-invasive annual grass cycle.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Accounting for dispersal and local habitat when evaluating tributary use by riverine fishes

Conservation practitioners increasingly recognize the conservation value of tributaries for supporting mainstem, large-river specialist fishes. A tributarys discharge at its mouth is a coarse indicator of large-river specialist fishes found within the tributary, but the relative influences of regional dispersal and local habitat underpinning this species-discharge relationship is often unknown. We sampled large-river specialist fishes at sites within two nonwadeable tributaries of the Missouri and Mississippi rivers with contrasting prairie (Grand River) versus upland (Meramec River) habitats to address four research questions: (1) do mean site-level species richness (alpha diversity) and beta diversity (among-site species compositional differences) vary between tributaries? (2) does mean annual discharge correlate with local habitat and downriver distance to mainstem rivers (i.e., mainstem connectivity)? (3) are slopes of species-discharge relationships consistent between tributaries? and (4) do local habitat and downriver distance explain residual richness at sites beyond variation already explained by species-discharge relationships? We detected 30 of 42 potential large-river specialist fishes, demonstrating most mainstem species use tributaries. Mean site-level richness was higher in the Grand River (12.5 species versus 9.8 species in Meramec River), but partitioning of lower reaches (sites < 116 km from river mouth) and dispersal limitation in upper reaches (sites 116 km from river mouth) caused Meramec River beta diversity to be three times higher. Mean annual discharge correlated with habitat availability at sites and downriver distance. Although site-level alpha richness increased with discharge in both tributaries, slopes of species-discharge relationships varied between tributaries. Analyzing species-discharge residuals revealed downriver distance explained additional variation in site-level richness not accounted for by local discharge. For example, discharge alone underrepresented richness in lower-discharge, accessible sites (maximum underestimate = 8.7 species) and overrepresented richness in isolated sites (maximum overestimate = 5.8 species). Thus, predictive performance of species-discharge relationships can be improved by accounting for varying habitats among tributaries and downriver distance of sites when valuing tributaries for fishes with dispersal-dependent life cycles.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Identification of the Gulf of Mexico as an important high-use habitat for leatherback turtles from Central America

Endangered leatherback sea turtles ( Dermochelys coriacea ) are wide-ranging, long-distance migrants whose movements are often associated with environmental cues. We examined the spatial distribution and habitat use for 33 satellite-tracked leatherbacks from nesting beaches on the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panama from 2004 to 2018, an important nesting population for the leatherback Northwest Atlantic Distinct Population Segment. Tracking revealed the use of two distinct regions, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM, n = 18) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NAO, n = 15). We developed density utilization maps to elucidate high-use habitats, migration pathways, and seasonal movements. GoM leatherbacks were found in three concentrated high-use habitats connected by a migration pathway, while NAO leatherbacks were primarily found in a single, large high-use habitat. Leatherbacks in both regions have the potential to interact with Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries based on seasonal overlap with high fishing effort. Our findings suggest that the GoM is an important destination for leatherbacks from the Caribbean coast of Central America with seasonal movements between high-use habitats within the GoM. While leatherbacks are utilizing high-use habitats in both the NAO and the GoM, the proportion of individuals migrating into the GoM increased over the study period. Additionally, NAO leatherbacks have increased the distance they travel in the first 90 d. Regional differences in movement and spatial distribution of high-use habitats are important considerations when developing conservation plans for the Northwest Atlantic leatherback population.

Ecosphere↗