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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Creating multithemed ecological regions for macroscale ecology: Testing a flexible, repeatable, and accessible clustering method

Understanding broad-scale ecological patterns and processes often involves accounting for regional-scale heterogeneity. A common way to do so is to include ecological regions in sampling schemes and empirical models. However, most existing ecological regions were developed for specific purposes, using a limited set of geospatial features and irreproducible methods. Our study purpose was to: (1) describe a method that takes advantage of recent computational advances and increased availability of regional and global data sets to create customizable and reproducible ecological regions, (2) make this algorithm available for use and modification by others studying different ecosystems, variables of interest, study extents, and macroscale ecology research questions, and (3) demonstrate the power of this approach for the research question—How well do these regions capture regional-scale variation in lake water quality? To achieve our purpose we: (1) used a spatially constrained spectral clustering algorithm that balances geospatial homogeneity and region contiguity to create ecological regions using multiple terrestrial, climatic, and freshwater geospatial data for 17 northeastern U.S. states (~1,800,000 km 2 ); (2) identified which of the 52 geospatial features were most influential in creating the resulting 100 regions; and (3) tested the ability of these ecological regions to capture regional variation in water nutrients and clarity for ~6,000 lakes. We found that: (1) a combination of terrestrial, climatic, and freshwater geospatial features influenced region creation, suggesting that the oft-ignored freshwater landscape provides novel information on landscape variability not captured by traditionally used climate and terrestrial metrics; and (2) the delineated regions captured macroscale heterogeneity in ecosystem properties not included in region delineation—approximately 40% of the variation in total phosphorus and water clarity among lakes was at the regional scale. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of this method for creating customizable and reproducible regions for research and management applications.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Genetic structure among greater white-fronted goose populations of the Pacific Flyway

An understanding of the genetic structure of populations in the wild is essential for long-term conservation and stewardship in the face of environmental change. Knowledge of the present-day distribution of genetic lineages (phylogeography) of a species is especially important for organisms that are exploited or utilize habitats that may be jeopardized by human intervention, including climate change. Here, we describe mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear genetic (microsatellite) diversity among three populations of a migratory bird, the greater white-fronted goose ( Anser albifrons ), which breeds discontinuously in western and southwestern Alaska and winters in the Pacific Flyway of North America. Significant genetic structure was evident at both marker types. All three populations were differentiated for mtDNA, whereas microsatellite analysis only differentiated geese from the Cook Inlet Basin. In sexual reproducing species, nonrandom mate selection, when occurring in concert with fine-scale resource partitioning, can lead to phenotypic and genetic divergence as we observed in our study. If mate selection does not occur at the time of reproduction, which is not uncommon in long-lived organisms, then mechanisms influencing the true availability of potential mates may be obscured, and the degree of genetic and phenotypic diversity may appear incongruous with presumed patterns of gene flow. Previous investigations revealed population-specific behavioral, temporal, and spatial mechanisms that likely influence the amount of gene flow measured among greater white-fronted goose populations. The degree of observed genetic structuring aligns well with our current understanding of population differences pertaining to seasonal movements, social structure, pairing behavior, and resource partitioning.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Similarity of plant functional traits and aggregation pattern in a subtropical forest

The distribution of species and communities in relation to environmental heterogeneity is a central focus in ecology. Co-occurrence of species with similar functional traits is an indication that communities are determined in part by environmental filters. However, few studies have been designed to test how functional traits are selectively filtered by environmental conditions at local scales. Exploring the relationship between soil characteristics and plant traits is a step toward understanding the filtering hypothesis in determining plant distribution at local scale. Toward this end, we mapped all individual trees (diameter >1 cm) in a one-ha subtropical forest of China in 2007 and 2015. We measured topographic and detailed soil properties within the field site, as well as plant leaf functional traits and demographic rates of the seven most common tree species. A second one-ha study plot was established in 2015, to test and validate the general patterns that were drawn from first plot. We found that variation in species distribution at local scale can be explained by soil heterogeneity and plant functional traits. (From first plot). (1) Species dominant in habitats with high soil ammonium nitrogen and total phosphorus tended to have high specific leaf area (SLA) and relative growth rate (RGR). (2) Species dominant in low-fertility habitats tended to have high leaf dry matter content (LDMC), ratio of chlorophyll a and b (ratioab), and leaf thickness (LT). The hypothesis that functional traits are selected in part by environmental filters and determine plant distribution at local scale was confirmed by the data of the first plot and a second regional site showed similar species distribution patterns.

Zhejiang Province↗
USGS2017

Variation in species-level plant functional traits over wetland indicator status categories

Wetland indicator status (WIS) describes the habitat affinity of plant species and is used in wetland delineations and resource inventories. Understanding how species-level functional traits vary across WIS categories may improve designations, elucidate mechanisms of adaptation, and explain habitat optima and niche. We investigated differences in species-level traits of riparian flora across WIS categories, extending their application to indicate hydrologic habitat. We measured or compiled data on specific leaf area (SLA), stem specific gravity (SSG), seed mass, and mature height of 110 plant species that occur along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona. Additionally, we measured leaf δ 13 C, δ 15 N, % carbon, % nitrogen, and C/N ratio of 56 species with C3 photosynthesis. We asked the following: (i) How do species-level traits vary over WIS categories? (ii) Does the pattern differ between herbaceous and woody species? (iii) How well do multivariate traits define WIS categories? (iv) Which traits are correlated? The largest trait differences among WIS categories for herbaceous species occurred for SSG, seed mass, % leaf carbon and height, and for woody species occurred for height, SSG, and δ 13 C. SSG increased and height decreased with habitat aridity for both woody and herbaceous species. The δ 13 C and hence water use efficiency of woody species increased with habitat aridity. Water use efficiency of herbaceous species increased with habitat aridity via greater occurrence of C4 grasses. Multivariate trait assemblages differed among WIS categories. Over all species, SLA was correlated with height, δ 13 C, % leaf N, and C/N; height was correlated with SSG and % leaf C; SSG was correlated with % leaf C. Adaptations of both herbaceous and woody riparian species to wet, frequently inundated habitats include low-density stem tissue. Adaptations to drier habitats in the riparian zone include short, high-density cavitation-resistant stem tissue, and high water use efficiency. The results enhance understanding about using traits to describe plant habitat in riparian systems.

Arizona↗
USGS2017

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands, additional conservation strategies may be warranted to increase resilience of island biodiversity encountering tsunamis and rising sea levels.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Life history constraints explain negative relationship between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

Resource availability constrains the life history strategies available to organisms and may thereby limit population growth rates and productivity. We used this conceptual framework to explore the mechanisms driving recently reported negative relationships between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes. We studied populations of bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) in a set of lakes with DOC concentrations ranging from 3 to 24 mg/L; previous work has demonstrated that primary and secondary productivity of food webs is negatively related to DOC concentration across this gradient. For each population, we quantified individual growth rate, age at maturity, age‐specific fecundity, maximum age, length‐weight and length‐egg size relationships, and other life history characteristics. We observed a strong negative relationship between maximum size and DOC concentration; for instance, fish reached masses of 150 to 260 g in low‐DOC lakes but <120 g in high‐DOC lakes. Relationships between fecundity and length, and between egg size and length, were constant across the DOC gradient. Because fish in high‐DOC lakes reached smaller sizes but had similar fecundity and egg size at a given size, their total lifetime fecundity was as much as two orders of magnitude lower than fish in low‐DOC lakes. High DOC concentrations appeared to constrain the range of bluegill life history strategies available; populations in high‐DOC lakes always had low initial growth rates and high ages at maturity, whereas populations in low‐DOC showed higher variability in these traits. This was also the case for the intrinsic rates of natural increase of these populations, which were always low at the high end of the DOC gradient. The potentially lower capacity for fish populations in high‐DOC lakes to recover from exploitation has clear implications for the sustainable management of recreational fisheries in the face of considerable spatial heterogeneity and ongoing temporal change in lake DOC concentrations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients with fatty acid signature data

Knowledge of animal diets provides essential insights into their life history and ecology, although diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has become a popular method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine species. A primary assumption of QFASA is that constants called calibration coefficients, which account for the differential metabolism of individual fatty acids, are known. In practice, however, calibration coefficients are not known, but rather have been estimated in feeding trials with captive animals of a limited number of model species. The impossibility of verifying the accuracy of feeding trial derived calibration coefficients to estimate the diets of wild animals is a foundational problem with QFASA that has generated considerable criticism. We present a new model that allows simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients based only on fatty acid signature samples from wild predators and potential prey. Our model performed almost flawlessly in four tests with constructed examples, estimating both diet proportions and calibration coefficients with essentially no error. We also applied the model to data from Chukchi Sea polar bears, obtaining diet estimates that were more diverse than estimates conditioned on feeding trial calibration coefficients. Our model avoids bias in diet estimates caused by conditioning on inaccurate calibration coefficients, invalidates the primary criticism of QFASA, eliminates the need to conduct feeding trials solely for diet estimation, and consequently expands the utility of fatty acid data to investigate aspects of ecology linked to animal diets.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Do you hear what I see? Vocalization relative to visual detection rates of Hawaiian hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus semotus)

B ats vocalize during flight as part of the sensory modality called echolocation, but very little is known about whether flying bats consistently call. Occasional vocal silence during flight when bats approach prey or conspecifics has been documented for relatively few species and situations. Bats flying alone in clutter-free airspace are not known to forgo vocalization, yet prior observations suggested possible silent behavior in certain, unexpected situations. Determining when, why, and where silent behavior occurs in bats will help evaluate major assumptions of a primary monitoring method for bats used in ecological research, management, and conservation. In this study, we recorded flight activity of Hawaiian hoary bats ( Lasiurus cinereus semotus ) under seminatural conditions using both thermal video cameras and acoustic detectors. Simultaneous video and audio recordings from 20 nights of observation at 10 sites were analyzed for correspondence between detection methods, with a focus on video observations in three distance categories for which accompanying vocalizations were detected. Comparison of video and audio detections revealed that a high proportion of Hawaiian hoary bats “seen” on video were not simultaneously “heard.” On average, only about one in three visual detections within a night had an accompanying call detection, but this varied greatly among nights. Bats flying on curved flight paths and individuals nearer the cameras were more likely to be detected by both methods. Feeding and social calls were detected, but no clear pattern emerged from the small number of observations involving closely interacting bats. These results may indicate that flying Hawaiian hoary bats often forgo echolocation, or do not always vocalize in a way that is detectable with common sampling and monitoring methods. Possible reasons for the low correspondence between visual and acoustic detections range from methodological to biological and include a number of biases associated with the propagation and detection of sound, cryptic foraging strategies, or conspecific presence. Silent flight behavior may be more prevalent in echolocating bats than previously appreciated, has profound implications for ecological research, and deserves further characterization and study.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2017

Evidence for density dependence in foraging and migratory behavior of a subtropical nearshore seabird

Density-dependent competition for food resources influences both foraging ecology and reproduction in a variety of animals. The relationship between colony size, local prey depletion, and reproductive output in colonial central-place foragers has been extensively studied in seabirds; however, most studies have focused on effects of intraspecific competition during the breeding season, while little is known about whether density-dependent resource depletion influences individual migratory behavior outside the breeding season. Using breeding colony size as a surrogate for intraspecific resource competition, we tested for effects of colony size on breeding home range, nestling health, and migratory patterns of a nearshore colonial seabird, the brown pelican ( Pelecanus occidentalis ), originating from seven breeding colonies of varying sizes in the subtropical northern Gulf of Mexico. We found evidence for density-dependent effects on foraging behavior during the breeding season, as individual foraging areas increased linearly with the number of breeding pairs per colony. Contrary to our predictions, however, nestlings from more numerous colonies with larger foraging ranges did not experience either decreased condition or increased stress. During nonbreeding, individuals from larger colonies were more likely to migrate, and traveled longer distances, than individuals from smaller colonies, indicating that the influence of density-dependent effects on distribution persists into the nonbreeding period. We also found significant effects of individual physical condition, particularly body size, on migratory behavior, which in combination with colony size suggesting that dominant individuals remain closer to breeding sites during winter. We conclude that density-dependent competition may be an important driver of both the extent of foraging ranges and the degree of migration exhibited by brown pelicans. However, the effects of density-dependent competition on breeding success and population regulation remain uncertain in this system.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2017

Genetic differentiation and inferred dynamics of a hybrid zone between Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) in northern California

Genetic differentiation among Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis ) subspecies has been established in prior studies. These investigations also provided evidence for introgression and hybridization among taxa but were limited by a lack of samples from geographic regions where subspecies came into close contact. We analyzed new sets of samples from Northern Spotted Owls (NSO: S. o. caurina ) and California Spotted Owls (CSO: S. o. occidentalis ) in northern California using mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to obtain a clearer depiction of genetic differentiation and hybridization in the region. Our analyses revealed that a NSO population close to the northern edge of the CSO range in northern California (the NSO Contact Zone population) is highly differentiated relative to other NSO populations throughout the remainder of their range. Phylogenetic analyses identified a unique lineage of mtDNA in the NSO Contact Zone, and Bayesian clustering analyses of the microsatellite data identified the Contact Zone as a third distinct population that is differentiated from CSO and NSO found in the remainder of the subspecies' range. Hybridization between NSO and CSO was readily detected in the NSO Contact Zone, with over 50% of individuals showing evidence of hybrid ancestry. Hybridization was also identified among 14% of CSO samples, which were dispersed across the subspecies' range in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The asymmetry of hybridization suggested that the hybrid zone may be dynamic and moving. Although evidence of hybridization existed, we identified no F1 generation hybrid individuals. We instead found evidence for F2 or backcrossed individuals among our samples. The absence of F1 hybrids may indicate that (1) our 10 microsatellites were unable to distinguish hybrid types, (2) primary interactions between subspecies are occurring elsewhere on the landscape, or (3) dispersal between the subspecies' ranges is reduced relative to historical levels, potentially as a consequence of recent regional fires.

California↗
USGS2017

Transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen of steelhead trout within a complex multi-host assemblage

This is the first comprehensive region wide, spatially explicit epidemiologic analysis of surveillance data of the aquatic viral pathogen infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) infecting native salmonid fish. The pathogen has been documented in the freshwater ecosystem of the Pacific Northwest of North America since the 1950s, and the current report describes the disease ecology of IHNV during 2000–2012. Prevalence of IHNV infection in monitored salmonid host cohorts ranged from 8% to 30%, with the highest levels observed in juvenile steelhead trout. The spatial distribution of all IHNV-infected cohorts was concentrated in two sub-regions of the study area, where historic burden of the viral disease has been high. During the study period, prevalence levels fluctuated with a temporal peak in 2002. Virologic and genetic surveillance data were analyzed for evidence of three separate but not mutually exclusive transmission routes hypothesized to be maintaining IHNV in the freshwater ecosystem. Transmission between year classes of juvenile fish at individual sites (route 1) was supported at varying levels of certainty in 10%–55% of candidate cases, transmission between neighboring juvenile cohorts (route 2) was supported in 31%–78% of candidate cases, and transmission from adult fish returning to the same site as an infected juvenile cohort was supported in 26%–74% of candidate cases. The results of this study indicate that multiple specific transmission routes are acting to maintain IHNV in juvenile fish, providing concrete evidence that can be used to improve resource management. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that more sophisticated analysis of available spatio-temporal and genetic data is likely to yield greater insight in future studies.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2017

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Restricted gene flow between resident Oncorhynchus mykiss and an admixed population of anadromous steelhead

The species Oncorhynchus mykiss is characterized by a complex life history that presents a significant challenge for population monitoring and conservation management. Many factors contribute to genetic variation in O. mykiss populations, including sympatry among migratory phenotypes, habitat heterogeneity, hatchery introgression, and immigration (stray) rates. The relative influences of these and other factors are contingent on characteristics of the local environment. The Rock Creek subbasin in the middle Columbia River has no history of hatchery supplementation and no dams or artificial barriers. Limited intervention and minimal management have led to a dearth of information regarding the genetic distinctiveness of the extant O. mykiss population in Rock Creek and its tributaries. We used 192 SNP markers and collections sampled over a 5‐year period to evaluate the temporal and spatial genetic structures of O. mykiss between upper and lower watersheds of the Rock Creek subbasin. We investigated potential limits to gene flow within the lower watershed where the stream is fragmented by seasonally dry stretches of streambed, and between upper and lower watershed regions. We found minor genetic differentiation within the lower watershed occupied by anadromous steelhead ( F ST = 0.004), and evidence that immigrant influences were prevalent and ubiquitous. Populations in the upper watershed above partial natural barriers were highly distinct ( F ST = 0.093) and minimally impacted by apparent introgression. Genetic structure between watersheds paralleled differences in local demographics (e.g., variation in size), migratory restrictions, and habitat discontinuity. The evidence of restricted gene flow between putative remnant resident populations in the upper watershed and the admixed anadromous population in the lower watershed has implications for local steelhead productivity and regional conservation.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2017

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Idaho↗
USGS2017

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), using three common data types for bear ( U . spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers (HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom‐fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor‐shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor‐shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications.

Ecology and Evolution↗