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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800 years ago. Within that record is a quasi-periodic rise and fall of about 160 ? 40 years in duration and a shorter fluctuation of 32 ? 6 years that is superimposed on the 160-year fluctuation. Recorded lake-level history from 1860 to the present falls within the longer-term pattern and appears to be a single 160-year quasi-periodic fluctuation. Independent investigations of past climate change in the basin over the long-term period of record confirm that most of these changes in lake level were responses to climatically driven changes in water balance, including lake-level highstands commonly associated with cooler climatic conditions and lows with warm climate periods. The mechanisms underlying these large hydroclimatic anomalies are not clear, but they may be related to internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system or dynamical responses of the ocean-atmosphere system to variability in solar radiation or volcanic activity. The large capacities of the Great Lakes allow them to store great volumes of water. As calculated at chart datum, Lake Superior stores more water (2,900 mi3) than all the other lakes combined (2,539 mi3). Lake Michigan's storage is 1,180 mi3; Lake Huron's, 850 mi3; Lake Ontario's, 393 mi3; and Lake Erie's, 116 mi3. Seasonal lake-level changes alter storage by as much as 6 mi3 in Lake Superior and as little as 2.1 mi3 in Lake Erie. The extreme high and low lake levels measured in recorded lake-level history have altered storage by as much as 31 mi3 in Lake Michigan-Huron and as little as 9 mi3 in Lake Ontario. Diversions of water into and out of the lakes are very small compared to the total volume of water stored in the lakes. The water level of Lake Superior has been regulated since about 1914 and levels of Lake Ontario since about 1960. The range of Lake Superior water-level fluctuations and storage has not been altered greatly by regulation. However, fluctuations on Lake Ontario have been reduced from 6.6 ft preregulation

Circular

Impacts of spontaneous waterfall development on bedrock river longitudinal profile morphology

River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self-form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1-D numerical model to investigate how self-formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km-scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady-state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall-rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface

Salt marsh loss affects tides and sediment budget in shallow bays

The current paradigm is that salt marshes and their important ecosystem services are threatened by global climate change; indeed, large marsh losses have been documented worldwide. Morphological changes associated with salt marsh erosion are expected to influence the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of coastal systems. Here the influence of salt marsh erosion on the tidal hydrodynamics and sediment storage capability of shallow bays is investigated. Hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics are simulated using the numerical framework Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport in the Barnegat Bay‐Little Egg Harbor system, USA. We show that salt marsh erosion influences the propagation of tides into back‐barrier basins, reducing the periodic inundation and sediment delivery to marsh platforms. As salt marshes erode, the sediment trapping potential of marsh platforms decreases exponentially. In this test case, up to 50% of the sediment mass trapped by vegetation is lost once a quarter of the marsh area is eroded. Similarly, without salt marshes the sediment budget of the entire bay significantly declines. Therefore, a positive feedback might be triggered such that as the salt marsh retreats the sediment storage capacity of the system declines, which could in turn further exacerbate marsh degradation.

New Jersey

Shear-rate-dependent strength control on the dynamics of rainfall-triggered landslides, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan

A typhoon (Typhoon No. 10) attacked Shikoku Island and the Tyugoku area of Japan in 2004. This typhoon produced a new daily precipitation record of 1317 mm on Shikoku Island and triggered hundreds of landslides in Tokushima Prefecture. One catastrophic landslide was triggered in the Shiraishi area of Kisawa village, and destroyed more than 10 houses while also leaving an unstable block high on the slope. The unstable block kept moving after the event, showing accelerating and decelerating movement during and after rainfall and reaching a displacement of several meters before countermeasures were put into place. To examine the mechanism for this landsliding characteristic, samples (weathered serpentinite) were taken from the field, and their shear behaviours examined using ring shear tests. The test results revealed that the residual shear strength of the samples is positively dependent on the shear rate, which may provide an explanation for the continuous acceleratingdecelerating process of the landsliding. The roughness of the shear surface and the microstructure of the shear zone were measured and observed by laser microscope and SEM techniques in an attempt to clarify the mechanism of shear rate effect on the residual shear strength. Copyright ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Changes in aeolian saltation cloud properties with wind speed and ripples

Aeolian sediment transport shapes landscapes on Earth and other planetary surfaces, yet key uncertainties remain in how the near-bed saltation cloud responds to changing wind and surface conditions. Leveraging recent advances in image-based particle tracking, we conducted wind tunnel experiments using high-speed imaging and Particle Tracking Velocimetry to quantify sand grain trajectories in saturated saltation clouds over both flat and rippled beds. Our open-source PTV workflow resolved particle motions within millimeters of the bed across a range of wind speeds. Supporting previous results, we find that mean particle velocities do not scale linearly with wind speed; instead, changes in particle velocity distributions—including skewness and kurtosis—emerge as wind strength and sediment flux increase. At higher transport rates, distinctions among saltation, reptation, and creep within the particle distribution become more smoothed, suggesting a continuum spectrum of particle behavior rather than discrete transport modes. Our new dataset of particle trajectories over an active rippled bed shows distinctions in particle speed across the aspects. On ripple stoss slopes, fast saltating grains co-occur with slow creeping particles, while lee slopes are depleted of slower grains, consistent with shadowing effects. These observations support a feedback between ripple morphology and near-bed particle trajectories, with implications for how splash events redistribute sediment momentum. This study contributes new high-resolution empirical data that illuminate how saltation cloud structure evolves with wind forcing and bedform development, advancing our understanding of aeolian sediment transport under complex, dynamic conditions.

Aeolian Research

Integrating stream gage data and Landsat imagery to complete time-series of surface water extents in Central Valley, California

Accurate monitoring of surface water location and extent is critical for the management of diverse water resource phenomena. The multi-decadal archive of Landsat satellite imagery is punctuated by missing data due to cloud cover during acquisition times, hindering the assembly of a continuous time series of inundation dynamics. This study investigated whether streamflow volume measurements could be integrated with satellite data to fill gaps in monthly surface water chronologies for the Central Valley region of California, USA, from 1984 to 2015. We aggregated measurements of maximum monthly water extent within each of the study area’s 50 8-digit hydrologic unit code [HUC] watersheds from two Landsat-derived datasets: the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) Monthly Water History and the U.S. Geological Survey Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE). We calculated Spearman rank correlation coefficients between water extent values in each HUC and streamflow discharge data. Linear regression fits of the water extent/streamflow data pairs with the highest correlations served as the basis for interpolation of missing imagery surface water values on a HUC-wise basis. Results show strong (ρ > 0.7) maximum correlations in 11 (22.4%) and 25 (51.0%) HUCs for the DSWE and JRC time series, respectively, when comparisons were restricted to imagery and gages co-located in each HUC. Strong maximum correlations occurred in 39 (79.6%; DSWE) and 42 (85.7%; JRC) HUCs when imagery was paired with discharge data from any study area gage, providing a solid basis for reconstruction of water extent values. We generated continuous time series of 30+ years in 35 HUCs, demonstrating that this technique can provide quantitative estimates of historical surface water extents and elucidate flooding or drought events over the period of data collection. Results of a non-parametric trend analysis of the long-term time series on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis varied among HUCs, though most trends indicate an increase in surface water over the past 30 years.

California

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino

The Seamless Integrated Geologic Mapping (SIGMa) extension to the Geologic Map Schema (GeMS)

Geologic maps are the fundamental building blocks of surface and subsurface three-dimensional geologic framework models of the Earth’s crust. However, as the production and availability of geologic map databases continues to increase, inconsistent data models and the lack of synthesized, national geologic map data at scales appropriate for informed decision making negatively affect the functional integration of geologic map data with other national datasets. The Geologic Map Schema (GeMS) is the publication and archive database standard for geologic map data funded by the U.S. Geological Survey National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program, and standardizes the organization and content of a single map database. However, synthesizing multiple databases into a seamless geologic map database creates a different set of challenges and database needs than GeMS was designed to accommodate. The Seamless Integrated Geologic Mapping (SIGMa) extension is designed to expand the capabilities of GeMS by enabling integration of map-based geoscience data. In particular, the SIGMa extension enables capturing a diverse and ever-changing set of map units, produced by many contributors operating independently, and by incremental and noncontiguous assembly and publication. Feature-level metadata fields allow data sources and digital compilation methods to be attributed separately and a relational structure is designed to support the link between data sources and features attributed with multiple data sources. Instead of paragraph-style map-unit descriptions that can be highly inconsistent, SIGMa parses fundamental map-unit attributes, including material, genetic process, and age, into thematically specific fields. The SIGMa extension uses a hierarchical map-unit organization to facilitate a dynamic and evolving, formation-level stratigraphic framework. The hierarchy is developed around geologic provinces that represent temporally restricted geologic events, processes, and settings. Geologic provinces can include magmatic events, depositional settings associated with tectonic processes or stable continental margins, and processes that are actively shaping the modern landscape. A geologic province hierarchy places map units into a geologic context at subregional to continental scales and provides the flexibility to support incremental assembly of the stratigraphy.

Scientific Investigations Report

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the Khanneshin mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter A in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the Khanneshin mineral district, which has uranium, thorium, rare-earth-element, and apatite deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420-500 nanometer, nm), green (520-600 nm), red (610-690 nm), and near-infrared (760-890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520-770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (&copy;JAXA,2007,2008,2010), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. Therefore, it was necessary to (1) register the 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery to a well-controlled Landsat image base, (2) mosaic the individual multispectral images into a single image of the entire area of interest, (3) register each panchromatic image to the registered multispectral image base, and (4) mosaic the individual panchromatic images into a single image of the entire area of interest. The two image-registration steps were facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band's picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area's local zone (41 for Khanneshin) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into nine overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The nine image tiles (or quadrants) for the Khanneshin area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image. Within the Khanneshin study area, one subarea was designated for detailed field investigations (that is, the Khanneshin volcano subarea); this subarea was extracted from the area's image mosaic and is provided as separate embedded geotiff images.

Helm;Nimroz

Simple equations guide high-frequency surface-wave investigation techniques

We discuss five useful equations related to high-frequency surface-wave techniques and their implications in practice. These equations are theoretical results from published literature regarding source selection, data-acquisition parameters, resolution of a dispersion curve image in the frequency-velocity domain, and the cut-off frequency of high modes. The first equation suggests Rayleigh waves appear in the shortest offset when a source is located on the ground surface, which supports our observations that surface impact sources are the best source for surface-wave techniques. The second and third equations, based on the layered earth model, reveal a relationship between the optimal nearest offset in Rayleigh-wave data acquisition and seismic setting - the observed maximum and minimum phase velocities, and the maximum wavelength. Comparison among data acquired with different offsets at one test site confirms the better data were acquired with the suggested optimal nearest offset. The fourth equation illustrates that resolution of a dispersion curve image at a given frequency is directly proportional to the product of a length of a geophone array and the frequency. We used real-world data to verify the fourth equation. The last equation shows that the cut-off frequency of high modes of Love waves for a two-layer model is determined by shear-wave velocities and the thickness of the top layer. We applied this equation to Rayleigh waves and multi-layer models with the average velocity and obtained encouraging results. This equation not only endows with a criterion to distinguish high modes from numerical artifacts but also provides a straightforward means to resolve the depth to the half space of a layered earth model. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

The sea slope problem revisited

Discrepancies in sea surface topography based on comparisons between the results of steric leveling and repeated geodetic levelings have identified what is known as the ‘sea slope problem.’ This problem is actually twofold: (1) the sea surface relief based on steric leveling differs significantly from that based on geodetic leveling along several generally north-south coasts, and (2) successively propagated levelings between several widely separated tide stations indicate that the stationary sea slope seemingly has been changing with time, whereas differenced sea level means between these stations indicate that the sea surface relief has remained virtually invariant during the same intervals. Reexamination of the three reported discrepancies between geodetically and sterically determined sea slopes indicates that the Australian example is based on leveling of a quality inappropriate to the comparison. The discrepancy developed along the Atlantic coast of the United States is limited to the reach between Portsmouth–Hampton Roads, Virginia, and Key West, Florida, where the accuracy of steric leveling may be especially vulnerable owing to the dynamic effects of the Gulf Stream. Reconsideration of the example along the Pacific coast of the United States indicates that the various discrepancies are due chiefly to intrasurvey movement and resultant distortion of geodetically defined height differences between tide stations. Agreement between the results of steric and geodetic leveling along tectonically inactive north-south coasts devoid of strong boundary currents is generally good. This observation supports the conclusions (1) that any directionally dependent systematic error in geodetic leveling is measurably insignificant and (2) that where allowance is made for the possible effects of major boundary currents or intrasurvey movement during levelings between tide stations, the sea slope problem tends to vanish.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Rock-avalanche dynamics revealed by large-scale field mapping and seismic signals at a highly mobile avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, western Colorado

On 25 May 2014, a rain-on-snow–induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado (United States). The avalanche mobilized from a preexisting rock slide in the Green River Formation and traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing three people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous United States because of its large size (54.5 Mm3) and high mobility (height/length = 0.14). To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mobility, we conducted a forensic analysis using large-scale (1:1000) structural mapping and seismic data. We used high-resolution, unmanned aircraft system imagery as a base for field mapping, and analyzed seismic data from 22 broadband stations (distances < 656 km from the rock-slide source area) and one short-period network. We inverted broadband data to derive a time series of forces that the avalanche exerted on the earth and tracked these forces using curves in the avalanche path. Our results revealed that the rock avalanche was a cascade of landslide events, rather than a single massive failure. The sequence began with an early morning landslide/debris flow that started ∼10 h before the main avalanche. The main avalanche lasted ∼3.5 min and traveled at average velocities ranging from 15 to 36 m/s. For at least two hours after the avalanche ceased movement, a central, hummock-rich core continued to move slowly. Since 25 May 2014, numerous shallow landslides, rock slides, and rock falls have created new structures and modified avalanche topography. Mobility of the main avalanche and central core was likely enhanced by valley floor material that liquefied from undrained loading by the overriding avalanche. Although the base was likely at least partially liquefied, our mapping indicates that the overriding avalanche internally deformed predominantly by sliding along discrete shear surfaces in material that was nearly dry and had substantial frictional strength. These results indicate that the West Salt Creek avalanche, and probably other long-traveled avalanches, could be modeled as two layers: a thin, liquefied basal layer, and a thicker and stronger overriding layer.

Colorado

Description and preliminary testing of the CDSN Seismic Sensor Systems

The China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN) is being designed and installed to provide the People's Republic of China with the facilities needed to create a national digital database for earthquake research. The CDSN, which is being developed jointly by the PRC State Seismological Bureau and the U.S. Geological Survey, will consist initially of nine digitally-recording seismograph stations, a data management system to be used for compiling network-day tapes, and a depot maintenance center. Data produced by the network will be shared with research scientists throughout the world. A national seismograph network must be designed to support a variety of research objectives. From this standpoint, the choices and tradeoffs involved in specifying signal bandwidth, resolution, and dynamic range are the most important decisions in system design. As in the case of the CDSN, these decisions are made during the selection and design of the seismic sensor system and encoder components. The purpose of this report is to describe the CDSN sensor systems, their important signal characteristics, and the results of preliminary tests that have been performed on the instruments. Four overlapping data bands will be recorded at each station: short period (SP), broadband (BB), long period (LP), and very long period (VLP). Amplitude response curves are illustrated in Figure I. Vertical and horizontal components will be recorded for each data band. The SP and LP channels will be recorded with sufficient sensitivities to resolve earth background noise at seismically quiet sites. The BB channels will have a lower sensitivity and are intended for broadband recording of moderate-to-large body-wave signals and for increasing the effective amplitude range in the short- and long-period bands. The VLP channel does not provide additional spectral coverage at long periods; its purpose is to make use of on-site filtration and decimation to reduce post processing requirements for VLP studies. Early plans also included a triaxial set of low-sensitivity accelerometers for recording strong signals from large local and regional earthquakes. The accelerometers are not being installed; however, they may be added in the future. The short-period signals will be derived from a three-component set of PRC-supplied Model DJ-I SP seismometers and US-supplied SP amplifiers. The seismometers will be installed in surface or shallow subsurface vaults, except at two of the stations where they will be installed in boreholes. The BB, LP, and VLP signals will be derived from Streckeisen STS-1 broadband sensor systems installed in vaults, except at one site where the LP signals only will-be derived from a KS-36000 borehole seismometer installed at a depth of 100 meters. Analog signals will be sampled and quantized by an analog-to-digital converter (ADC) that is part of the recording system. Sampling rates chosen for the CDSN are as follows: * SP 40 samples/second * BB 20 samples/second * LP 1 sample/second * VLP 6 samples/minute The ADC 16-bit data word format makes use of 14 bits to quantize the signal and 2 bits to specify an automatically ranged gain of 1, 8, 32, or 128. This will provide 84 dB of resolution and up to 42 dB of gain ranging for a total opera- ting range of 126 dB peak to peak. Magnetic tape cartridges, each having a capacity of 67 megabytes, will be used for recording the digital data. LP and VLP data will be recorded continu- ously. SP and BB data will be processed through an automatic signal detector of the type described by Murdock and Hutt (1983), and only detected events will be stored on tape. Detection parameters, such as turn-on sensitivity and mini- mum recording duration for the SP and BB channels, will be fully programmable and easily changed. One or more of the data channels may also be recorded on analog recorders. A CDSN recording system was not available at the time that the preliminary tests were performed on the CDSN sensor systems. This did not interfere with the principal goals of the testing which were to determine the best sensor installation techniques and to demonstrate the operational performance of the sensor systems, especially with regard to instrument noise and detection capability. When the CDSN recording system is available, additional tests will be performed to measure distortion levels in the full system and components. Distortion tests have been performed on the Streckeisen STS-1 broadband seismometers, the most critical component from the standpoint of linearity, and the results of the tests are reported by Wielandt and Streckeisen (1982). Calibration accuracy and stability are also important sensor system characteristics that cannot be defined without additional testing. These tests will be performed as the instruments are installed at the stations and periodically during operation.

Open-File Report

Fully contained laboratory earthquakes: The effect of asperity aspect ratio and free surfaces

Corner frequency ( f c ) and seismic moment ( M 0 ) are key parameters derived from seismic signals that are used to characterize earthquake stress drop, rupture area, and slip. These parameters are also affected by fault geometry and boundary conditions. However, the systematic study of these effects in laboratory settings has been challenging. This study presents laboratory earthquake experiments that examine how rupture dynamics are influenced by (a) the aspect ratio of rectangular PMMA velocity-weakening (VW) asperities surrounded by the Teflon velocity-strengthening (VS) patches, and (b) whether the sides of a VW asperity are confined with VS patches or are free surfaces. We found that increasing confinement by reducing free surfaces or increasing the VW asperity aspect ratio stabilizes fault slip, so that higher normal stress is required to transition from aseismic to seismic slip. Increased confinement and high aspect ratios also reduced M 0 and increased f c , both of which were determined from the radiated seismic waves. M 0 and f c were primarily controlled by the shorter dimension of the VW asperity. Analysis of high-frequency acoustic emission signals revealed that ruptures on high-aspect-ratio VW asperities propagated more unidirectionally, whereas ruptures on square VW asperities were more complex. Further, the high-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to be eroded by surrounding VS regions while low-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to rupture into the VS surroundings. These results demonstrate that both the confinement from surrounding stable areas and the geometry of the seismogenic patch can affect rupture nucleation, propagation, and seismic source characteristics.

JGR Solid Earth

Climate change will impact surface water extents and dynamics across the central United States

Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017–2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006–2025 and 2061–2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017–2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.

Earth's Future

Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity at The Geysers, California

The principal results of this study of remotely triggered seismicity in The Geysers geothermal field are the demonstration that triggering (initiation of earthquake failure) depends on a critical strain threshold and that the threshold level increases with decreasing frequency, or, equivalently, depends on strain rate. This threshold function derives from (1) analyses of dynamic strains associated with surface waves of the triggering earthquakes, (2) statistically measured aftershock zone dimensions, and (3) analytic functional representations of strains associated with power production and tides. The threshold is also consistent with triggering by static strain changes and implies that both static and dynamic strains may cause aftershocks. The observation that triggered seismicity probably occurs in addition to background activity also provides an important constraint on the triggering process. Assuming the physical processes underlying earthquake nucleation to be the same, Gomberg [this issue] discusses seismicity triggered by the M W 7.3 Landers earthquake, its constraints on the variability of triggering thresholds with site, and the implications of time delays between triggering and triggered earthquakes. Our results enable us to reject the hypothesis that dynamic strains simply nudge prestressed faults over a Coulomb failure threshold sooner than they would have otherwise. We interpret the rate-dependent triggering threshold as evidence of several competing processes with different time constants, the faster one(s) facilitating failure and the other(s) inhibiting it. Such competition is a common feature of theories of slip instability. All these results, not surprisingly, imply that to understand earthquake triggering one must consider not only simple failure criteria requiring exceedence of some constant threshold but also the requirements for generating instabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth