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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Differences in macroinvertebrate community structure in streams and rivers with different hydrologic regimes in the semi-arid Colorado Plateau

Aquatic macroinvertebrates are sensitive to changes in their chemical and physical environment, and as such, serve as excellent indicators of overall ecosystem health. Moreover, temporal and spatial differences in macroinvertebrate community structure can be used to investigate broad issues in aquatic science, such as the hypothesis that changes in climate are likely to have disproportionately large effects on small, intermittent stream ecosystems. We quantified macroinvertebrate community structure and abiotic conditions at ten stream sites with different dominant hydrologic regimes in the Colorado Plateau, ranging from small, intermittent desert streams to large perennial mountain rivers. Considerable differences were observed in community structure between sites with differing hydrologic regimes. Quantitative results of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination and Spearman rank correlations between physical habitat and macroinvertebrate resemblance matrices indicate that discharge, geomorphic channel unit type (% pools vs. % riffles), percent of substrate composed of sand, and velocity were the subset of measured habitat variables that best explained the differences in macroinvertebrate community structure among sites. Of the 134 taxa identified, nine taxa explained 95 % of the variability in community structure between sites. These results add to a growing base of knowledge regarding the functioning of lotic ecosystems in the Colorado Plateau, and provide timely information on anticipated changes in the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems in response to predicted future environmental conditions.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2026

Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study

The southwestern United States consists of diverse ecosystems that are experiencing increasing pressures from rising temperatures, increasing aridity, and sea level rise. To prepare this region for future uncertainty, there is a need for strong partnerships among researchers and societal partners. The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) acts to foster engaged scholarship from diverse perspectives to produce science relevant for management and policy decisions. Here, we synthesized a subset of SW CASC-funded projects and published manuscripts to illustrate how the combination of new scientific knowledge and the research and practice of engaged scholarship produce actionable science with direct societal impacts. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Science section, we touch on new research produced from funded projects on the most common topics: (1) Forest Ecosystems, (2) Coastal Ecosystems, (3) Hydrometeorology, and (4) Research on Engaged Scholarship. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Impacts section, we outline engaged scholarship activities to demonstrate how they created societal impacts: (1) the Keepers of the Flame course and workshops, (2) the Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership and the Southern California Montane Forests Project, (3) the Coastal Managers Workshop, (4) the Colorado River Basin Wiki, and (5) the Natural Resource Workforce Development Program. In the SW CASC Publications Cited in Policy section, we used a bibliometric analysis to assess the impact of the SW CASC-funded research on policy. We analyzed how often publications were used in policy documents, finding a citation rate of 27.6%. This is high compared to similar analyses that found peer-reviewed research articles cited at a rate of 3.9% in policy documents. We conclude that coproduced science makes unique and important contributions to the resilience of the Southwest, not only by generating new knowledge but by building capacity, creating lasting relationships, and informing policy and conservation and management decisions.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2002

Precipitation history of the Colorado Plateau region, 1900-2000

The Colorado Plateau covers 210,000 km 2 (130,000 mi 2) of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. Management of this region?s resources requires an understanding of how its climate has varied in the past and may change in the near future. Recent studies by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists suggest that the region may become drier for the next 2 to 3 decades, in a pattern similar to the drought of 1942?1977. The region?s population has increased fourfold since the mid-1950s, creating the possibility of severe consequences if such a drought were repeated.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.

Arizona↗
USGS2012

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Colorado↗
USGS2023

Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands

Selecting livestock genetics adapted to arid environments, such as Criollo cattle, is one of several strategies recommended for decreasing the vulnerability to climate change of ranching in the southwestern USA. Our objective was to determine whether desirable foraging traits of Criollo cattle previously documented in the Chihuahuan Desert, held true in two of the most climate-vulnerable ecosystems of the Southwest. We conducted a study at Rancho Corta Madera (RCM) in southern California and Dugout Ranch (DR) in southeast Utah. Twenty mature cows, 10 Raramuri Criollo and 10 Red or Black Angus, were monitored with GPS collars during multiple seasons between 2018 and 2021. Geolocation data were used to compute daily distance traveled (km*d −1 ), movement velocity (m*min −1 ), path sinuosity (SI), time spent grazing, resting, or traveling (h*d −1 ), and area of the pasture explored (ha*d −1 ) as well as to calculate selection of vegetation cover types ( E , Ivlev's Electivity Index) by cows of each breed. The effects of breed, season, year, and pasture on each of these metrics were modeled with repeated measures analyses of variance. At both ranches, statistically detectable differences (P ≤ 0.05) between breeds were observed for most behavior metrics during the dormant season. Conversely, few breed differences were observed during the growing season. Criollo cattle exhibited greater relative preference for a number of shrub dominated vegetation types at both ranches, and similar relative selection of grassland dominated sites compared to Angus counterparts. At both ranches, Criollo cattle exhibited similar or less relative preference for riparian areas vs. Angus counterparts. Breed divergence vs. convergence of foraging behaviors during the dormant vs. growing seasons, previously observed in the Chihuahuan Desert, was documented at both sites. Positive system outcomes associated with foraging traits of Criollo cattle could be expected to occur more broadly across the Southwest.

Journal of Arid Environments↗
USGS1973

Selected hydrologic data in the upper Colorado River basin

Most of the information in this atlas pertains to the ground-water resources of the basin. The surface-water resources, climate, and geohydrologic framework have been described in considerable detail by Iorns and others (1964, 1965). The maps in this atlas are highly generalized, and are intended to provide the reader with only a general understanding of the geology, ground-water conditions, and chemical quality of the water in the basin as a whole. In most instances, the availability, depth to, and chemical quality of ground water at a given well site can be determined only by special investigations. Only previously collected data were used to compile the maps in this atlas. More detailed information for specific parts of the basin can be found in the reports and maps in the list of references.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2001

Metal loading assessment of a small mountainous sub-basin characterized by acid drainage -- Prospect Gulch, upper Animas River watershed, Colorado

strongly affected by natural acidity from pyrite weathering. Metal content in the water column is a composite of multiple sources affected by hydrologic, geologic, climatic, and anthropogenic conditions. Identifying sources of metals from various drainage areas was determined using a tracer injection approach and synoptic sampling during low flow conditions on September 29, 1999 to determine loads. The tracer data was interpreted in conjunction with detailed geologic mapping, topographic profiling, geochemical characterization, and the occurrence and distribution of trace metals to identify sources of ground-water inflows. For this highly mineralized sub-basin, we demonstrate that SO4, Al, and Fe load contributions from drainage areas that have experienced historical mining?although substantial?are relatively insignificant in comparison with SO4, Al, and Fe loads from areas experiencing natural weathering of highlyaltered, pyritic rocks. Regional weathering of acid-sulfate mineral assemblages produces moderately low pH waters elevated in SO4, Al, and Fe; but generally lacking in Cu, Cd, Ni, and Pb. Samples impacted by mining are also characterized by low pH and large concentrations of SO4, Al, and Fe; but contained elevated dissolved metals from ore-bearing vein minerals such as Cu, Zn, Cd, Ni, and Pb. Occurrences of dissolved trace metals were helpful in identifying ground-water sources and flow paths. For example, cadmium was greatest in inflows associated with drainage from inactive mine sites and absent in inflows that were unaffected by past mining activities and thus served as an important indicator of mining contamination for this environmental setting. The most heavily mine-impacted reach (PG153 to PG800), contributed 8% of the discharge, and 11%, 9%, and 12% of the total SO4, Al, and Fe loads in Prospect Gulch. The same reach yielded 59% and 37% of the total Cu and Zn loads for the subbasin. In contrast, the naturally acidic inflows from the Red Chemotroph iron spring yielded 39% of the discharge and 54%, 73%, and 87% of the SO4, Al, and Fe loads; but only 4% of the total Cu and 30% of the total Zn loads in Prospect Gulch. Base flow from the Prospect Gulch sub-basin contributes about 4.8 percent of the total discharge at the mouth of Cement Creek; compared with sampled instream loads of 1.8%, 8.8%, 15.9%, 28%, and 8.6% for SO4, Al, Fe, Cu and Zn, respectively. Water-shed scale remediation efforts targeted at reducing loads of SO4, Al, and Fe at inactive mine sites are likely to fail because the major sources of these constituents in Prospect Gulch are predominantly discharged from natural sources. Remediation goals aimed at reducing acidity and loads of Cu and other base metals, may succeed, however, because changes in pH and loads are disproportionately greater than increases in discharge over the same reach, and a substantial fraction of the metal loading is from mining-impacted reaches. Whether remediation of abandoned mines in Prospect Gulch can be successful depends on how goals are defined?that is, whether the objective is to reduce loads of SO4, Al, and Fe; or whether loads of Cu and other base metals and pH are targeted.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Defining conservation priorities for freshwater fishes according to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity

To date, the predominant use of systematic conservation planning has been to evaluate and conserve areas of high terrestrial biodiversity. Although studies in freshwater ecosystems have received recent attention, research has rarely considered the potential trade-offs between protecting different dimensions of biodiversity and the ecological processes that maintain diversity. We provide the first systematic prioritization for freshwaters (focusing on the highly threatened and globally distinct fish fauna of the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA) simultaneously considering scenarios of: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity; contemporary threats to biodiversity (including interactions with nonnative species); and future climate change and human population growth. There was 75% congruence between areas of highest conservation priority for different aspects of biodiversity, suggesting that conservation efforts can concurrently achieve strong complementarity among all types of diversity. However, sizable fractions of the landscape were incongruent across conservation priorities for different diversity scenarios, underscoring the importance of considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity and highlighting catchments that contribute disproportionately to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity in the region. Regions of projected human population growth were not concordant with conservation priorities; however, higher human population abundance will likely have indirect effects on native biodiversity by increasing demand for water. This will come in direct conflict with projected reductions in precipitation and warmer temperatures, which have substantial overlap with regions of high contemporary diversity. Native and endemic fishes in arid ecosystems are critically endangered by both current and future threats, but our results highlight the use of systematic conservation planning for the optimal allocation of limited resources that incorporates multiple and complementary conservation values describing taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1988

Regionalization of mean annual suspended-sediment loads in streams, central, northwestern, and southwestern Colorado

Regression analysis was used to develop models for estimating mean annual suspended-sediment loads for streams in Colorado. Mean annual suspended-sediment loads at 81 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado were expressed as functions of geomorphic and hydrologic variables. A multiple-regression model that included mean basin elevation, mean annual streamflow, and drainage-basin area explained 78% of the variance in mean annual suspended-sediment load when all sites were analyzed together. The state was divided into four regions to decrease variance from spatial differences in geography and climate, and multiple-regression models were recomputed for each region. The best multiple-regression models for the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado included mean annual streamflow and mean basin elevation. A multiple-regression model was not developed for eastern Colorado because few sites in this region had adequate sediment-load records. Regionalization of mean annual suspended-sediment loads resulted in improved multiple-regression models for the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado. The regional multiple-regression models can be used to estimate mean annual suspended-sediment loads for other streams in these regions when mean annual streamflow and mean basin elevation are known. Regional regression models based only on drainage area also were developed, and they can be used to estimate mean annual suspended-sediment load when annual streamflow is unknown. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Results of mineral, chemical, and sulfate isotopic analyses of water, soil, rocks, and soil extracts from the Pariette Draw Watershed, Uinta Basin, Utah

In 2010, Utah Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) Division of Water Quality (UDWQ, 2010) determined that water quality in Pariette Draw was in violation of Federal and State water quality criteria for total dissolved solids (TDS), selenium (Se), and boron (B). The measure of total dissolved solids is the sum of all the major ion concentrations in solution and in this case, the dominant ions are sodium (Na) and sulfate (SO4), which can form salts like thenardite (Na2SO4) and mirabilite (Na2SO4⋅H2O). The Utah Department of Environmental Quality (2010) classified the contamination as natural background and from nonpoint sources related to regional lithology and irrigation practices. Although the daily loads of the constituents of concern and water chemistry have been characterized for parts of the watershed, little is known about the controls that bedrock and soil mineralogy have on salt, Se, and B storage and the water-rock interactions that influence the mobility of these components in ground and surface waters. Studies in the Uncompahgre River watershed in Colorado by Tuttle and others (2014a, 2014b) show that salt derived from weathering of shale in a semiarid climate is stored in a variety of minerals that contribute solutes to runoff and surface waters based on a complex set of conditions such as water availability, geomorphic position (for example, topography controls the depth of salt accumulation in soils), water-table fluctuations, redox conditions, mineral dissolution kinetics, ion-exchange reactions, and secondary mineral formation. Elements like Se and B commonly reside in soluble salt phases, so knowledge of the behavior of salt minerals also sheds light on the behavior of associated contaminants. The goal of this study was to establish a process-based understanding of salt, Se, and B behavior to address whether these contaminants can be better managed, or if uncontrollable natural processes will overwhelm any attempts to bring Pariette Draw into compliance with respect to recently established total maximum daily limits (TMDLs). We collected data to refine our knowledge about the role of rock weathering and soil formation in the transport and storage of salt in the watershed and to show how salt is cycled under irrigated and natural conditions. Our approach was to sample rock, soils, and sediment on irrigated and natural terrain for mineralogical analysis to determine the residence of salt and associated Se and B, classify minerals as primary (related to rock formation) or secondary weathering products, and characterize mineral dissolution kinetics. Mineral and chemical analyses and selective extractions of rocks and soils provide useful information in understanding solute movement and mineral dissolution/ formation. The resulting data are critical in determining residence of salt, Se, and B in weathered rock and soil and understanding the mobility during water-rock-soil interactions. This report summarizes our methods for sample and data collection and tabulates the mineral, chemical, and isotopic data collected.

Utah↗
USGS2025

Reevaluating the depositional model of the Cenomanian–Turonian Bridge Creek Limestone Member near Pueblo, Colorado, U.S.A.: Roles of changing sedimentation rate on the formation of limestone–marl bedding couplets

Although interbedded limestone–marl couplets in many hemipelagic and pelagic deposits have been commonly attributed to orbital-driven climate cycles, the driving mechanisms of these couplets remain largely controversial. This situation arises from the fact that detailed sedimentologic and petrographic facies characteristics of these fine-grained deposits have rarely been examined closely. In this study we conduct an integrated sedimentologic and petrographic analysis to disentangle causes of the limestone–marl bedding couplets in the Cenomanian–Turonian Bridge Creek Limestone Member (BCL) of the Greenhorn Formation using cores and outcrop near Pueblo, Colorado. By integrating existing geochemical datasets, each of the three general lithologies in the BCL including limestone, marl, and calcareous mudstone can be divided into two facies, a more bioturbated vs. a more laminated facies, in addition to bentonite beds. The variability in sedimentary, bioturbation, and petrographic characteristics of different sedimentary facies types, as well as constraints from the existing orbital time scale, in the BCL indicate changes in sediment accumulation rate or the amount of time recorded by different facies—the limestone, marl, and calcareous facies are interpreted to reflect increasing sedimentation rate. The sedimentary and petrographic facies variations, including but not limited to lithological alternations, in the BCL are interpreted to result from the combined influence of various processes such as bottom currents, bioturbation, early diagenesis, and episodic volcanic input, with some of the above-mentioned processes likely modulated by short-term relative changes in sea level. Results of this study highlight the need for detailed sedimentologic and petrographic studies and consideration of short-term changes in sedimentation rate to fully resolve the causes of the apparent limestone–marl bedding couplets and reliably reconstruct short-term changes in depositional and environmental conditions from the BCL and other similar successions.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin, U.S.A.

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the United States’ High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗
USGS2010

Response of Colorado river runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow

The waters of the Colorado River serve 27 million people in seven states and two countries but are overallocated by more than 10% of the river's historical mean. Climate models project runoff losses of 7-20% from the basin in this century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown however that by the late 1800s, decades prior to allocation of the river's runoff in the 1920s, a fivefold increase in dust loading from anthropogenically disturbed soils in the southwest United States was already decreasing snow albedo and shortening the duration of snow cover by several weeks. The degree to which this increase in radiative forcing by dust in snow has affected timing and magnitude of runoff from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is unknown. Hereweuse the Variable Infiltration Capacity model with postdisturbance and predisturbance impacts of dust on albedo to estimate the impact on runoff from the UCRB across 1916-2003. We find that peak runoff at Lees Ferry, Arizona has occurred on average 3 wk earlier under heavier dust loading and that increases in evapotranspiration from earlier exposure of vegetation and soils decreases annual runoff by more than 1.0 billion cubic meters or ???5% of the annual average. The potential to reduce dust loading through surface stabilization in the deserts and restore more persistent snow cover, slow runoff, and increase water resources in the UCRB may represent an important mitigation opportunity to reduce system management tensions and regional impacts of climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2016

Prestoration: Using species in restoration that will persist now and into the future

Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, USA as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short-term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid-century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than ten species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2023

Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth

Fine-scale microclimate variation due to complex topography can shape both current vegetation distributional patterns and how vegetation responds to changing climate. Topographic heterogeneity in mountains is hypothesized to mediate responses to regional climate change at the scale of metres. For alpine vegetation especially, the interplay between changing temperatures and topographically mediated variation in snow accumulation will determine the overall impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics. We combined 30 years of co-located measurements of temperature, snow and alpine plant community composition in Colorado, USA, to investigate vegetation community trajectories across a snow depth gradient. Our analysis of long-term trends in plant community composition revealed notable directional change in the alpine vegetation with warming temperatures. Furthermore, community trajectories are divergent across the snow depth gradient, with exposed parts of the landscape that experience little snow accumulation shifting towards stress-tolerant, cold- and drought-adapted communities, while snowier areas shifted towards more warm-adapted communities. Synthesis : Our findings demonstrate that fine-scale topography can mediate both the magnitude and direction of vegetation responses to climate change. We documented notable shifts in plant community composition over a 30-year period even though alpine vegetation is known for slow dynamics that often lag behind environmental change. These results suggest that the processes driving alpine plant population and community dynamics at this site are strong and highly heterogeneous across the complex topography that is characteristic of high-elevation mountain systems.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2023

Increased aridity is associated with stronger tradeoffs in ponderosa pine vital functions

Trees must allocate resources to core functions like growth, defense, and reproduction. These allocation patterns have profound effects on forest health, yet little is known about how core functions trade off over time, and even less is known about how a changing climate will impact tradeoffs. We conducted a 21-year survey of growth, defense, and reproduction in 80 ponderosa pine individuals spanning eight populations across environmental gradients along the Colorado Front Range, USA. We used linear mixed models to describe tradeoffs among these functions and to characterize variability among and within individuals over time. Growth and defense were lower in years of high cone production, and local drought conditions amplified year-to-year tradeoffs between reproduction and growth, where trees located at sites with hotter and drier climates showed stronger tradeoffs between reproduction and growth. Our results support the environmental stress hypothesis of masting, which predicts that greater interannual variation in tree functions will be associated with more marginal environments, such as those that are prone to drought. With warming temperatures and increased exposure to drought stress, trees will be faced with stronger interannual tradeoffs, which could lead to further decreases in growth and defensive efforts, ultimately increasing risks of mortality.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Changes in projected spatial and seasonal groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is an important source of water in the western United States, supplying the needs of more than 38 million people in the United States and Mexico. Groundwater discharge to streams has been shown to be a critical component of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), particularly during low-flow periods. Understanding impacts on groundwater in the basin from projected climate change will assist water managers in the region in planning for potential changes in the river and groundwater system. A previous study on changes in basin-wide groundwater recharge in the UCRB under projected climate change found substantial increases in temperature, moderate increases in precipitation, and mostly periods of stable or slight increases in simulated groundwater recharge through 2099. This study quantifies projected spatial and seasonal changes in groundwater recharge within the UCRB from recent historical (1950 to 2015) through future (2016 to 2099) time periods, using a distributed-parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Simulation results indicate that projected increases in basin-wide recharge of up to 15% are not distributed uniformly within the basin or throughout the year. Northernmost subregions within the UCRB are projected an increase in groundwater recharge, while recharge in other mainly southern subregions will decline. Seasonal changes in recharge also are projected within the UCRB, with decreases of 50% or more in summer months and increases of 50% or more in winter months for all subregions, and increases of 10% or more in spring months for many subregions.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming↗